T206 cards poised for largest 2 yr. percentage price increase.
 

Since we have commented a bit over the past 2 weeks on future t206 price increases how about listing 5 t206's you expect to have the largest percentage price increase using a 2 year time horizon.

Here are mine:

1. Plank
2. Johnson portrait
3. Lajoie portrait
4. Mathewson portrait
5. Tinker portrait

Bonus pick: Magee Portrait (as always)

I have a feeling most selections will be cards that folks already own, sort of a way of justifying previous (or upcoming) purchases. In the trading world we call it “talking your book”. So maybe we should include an “own” or “don’t own” designation? And I’m also gonna leave the big four off of my list, since they’re traded so infrequently that one aggressive buyer can skew the data with one outrageous purchase.

Regardless, here are mine in no particular order:

Cobb bat on (own)
Wajo portrait (don’t own)
Matty portrait (own)
Lajoie portrait (don’t own)
Cobb bat off (own)

Nice thread, Robert.

Just my opinions:

1. Plank
2. Johnson (Portrait)
3. Young (Portrait)
4. Cobb (Bat Off)
5. Demmitt/O'Hara

+1
 

I would bet that is why most post anyway !!

This just became my favorite new phrase, thanks for the knowledge.

I think this is half the discussion on prices and "future growth". Ever notice how a low sales point is always an anomaly, however a new crazy high oddball brings only the question "is this the new normal?"

Here are mine:

1. Plank
2. Cobb bat on shoulder
3. Johnson portrait
4. Young portrait
5. Evers blue sky

PS- I own one of each

And Robert, did you mean Magie?

I appreciate you making that distinction, and I like the phrase “talking your book.” I’ve always thought about it as “pumping a card.” Maybe I’m just skeptical, but it feels like there are many examples of dudes going to great lengths to bring exposure to a card “organically” when, coincidentally, one happens to be up for auction. I don’t think this thread is an example of that at all, but there are others on the main board, I believe.

Also, I agree with this list, but I might replace Nap with Cy portrait.

Wagner
Plank
Cobb Green
Johnson Portrait
Mathewson Portrait

Would anyone have said Titus ten years ago?

I'll go with Puttman.

Better than trashing a card you are secretly hoping to win. The old Hal Lewis playbook.

Titus recipe for fake hype =

Slowly buy up at least 75 - 100 commons ( mostly graded, between 2-5 grades are fine).
Make a post fanning them out stating you have been investing as you see an upside.
Tell a few other colleagues you have secretly been working to corner the market but finding frustration as "I just can't seem to find many anymore, the supply seems low" (this doesn't need to be true).
Those collectors spread the rumor in boards and in hushed tones about "the accumulator".
Dealers raise prices hoping to bring you in like a sucker, people panic and start buying.
You wait till the hype drifts up during the next couple years.
Slowly sell individual cards at the peak and make a mint from the panic.
Laugh to yourself over how easy that was.

It's all a house of cards...literally.

Full disclosure I own all but the Plank but I almost own the entire set so it would be natural I would own many of them. When I cite the Johnson it is a bit self-serving since I have a PSA 5 Sovereign and was pleasantly surprised at the price realized for the PSA 6 just sold by PWCC. I have thought for a long time that the card is underpriced as I felt he was the next card to appreciate significantly given the attractiveness of the card coupled with his achievements. I am also kicking myself for not buying more Johnson's when the opportunity presented itself as well as the Lajoie's which seem to be much more difficult to find as noted by another commenter in another post. I was acutually surprised to see how few Lajoie portraits have come for sale over the past 3 months on ebay.

Lastly, in relation to the Magee, I am speaking about the Magee not the Magie. I have always loved the image and feel that there have to be fewer Magee's around that other cards in the same series for 2 reasons: 1) The Magee replaced the Magie so that replacement would cause there to be a bit fewer Magee's than other cards printed in that entire piedmont series run and 2) counterfeiters have taken Magee's out of circulation in an attempt to alter them leaving a lesser population of existing Magee's.

I have been trying to purchase Magee's whenever possible.

WaJo port.
Young port.
Matty port.
Speaker
Dahlen Brooklyn (when inducted)

Very good point. If Dahlen gets elected by the Early Baseball Committee in 2020 (as his WAR suggests he might), both Boston and Brooklyn versions will likely take off — especially in higher grade.

I would be very cautious to expect further significant price increases. The global economy has serious cracks in its foundation and US debt levels have never been higher. We're also overdue for a recession. I fear it's going to be very ugly.

So 1914 Cracker Jacks then?

Time.

If you are new to the hobby and bought cards as speculative vehicles, you may be in for a lot of short term pain should the economy go south.

If you plan on holding the cards for 10+ years, you'll probably be fine.

I have gotten emails or seen ads nearly every day for the past ten years saying the same thing from some market guru or other. Always the same message about the debt and the Fed and the dollar; always the same predictions of massive drops in stock prices, and so on and so forth. And always backed up by analysis purporting to show it's just around the corner, or already started. Got them at Dow 10,000, and 12,000, and 15,000, and 20,000, etc. etc. They always want to sell you some guide to making money in a crash. Carry on.

Here's one of my faves, Porter Stansberry, predicting 2018 will be the beginning of the end.
http://thecrux.com/a-huge-rally-and-...gger-collapse/

He doesn't tell you he's had the same message since 2009 lol. You would have done real well listening to his crap.

No one wants to spoil a good party. Every asset I can think of has gone up at least 5-fold since 2010. I remember just a couple of years ago buying Apple shares at $90, and now it's at $215. Over a trillion dollar market cap already. Facebook from $50 a share to over $180 in less than 3 years. Bitcoin. Real Estate. Coins. Cards. Everything.

Some wisdom and a little knowledge of history can be very sobering at times.

Bitcoin has come partway back to earth. You're right, but you could have put together a sky is falling scenario in 2010 too. Or any year after that. How many people thought it was insane when AMZN hit 500? How many people were convinced that the market's recovery following early 2009 was just a dead cat bounce? How many people thought Bitcoin made no sense at 1000?

The US is $22 Trillion in debt and running $1T deficits at the tail end of one of the longest economic expansions on record. Cost to service that debt is already $500B+ a year, almost bigger than Medicare and the military. Consumers have more debt today than they did in 2006-7 before the collapse. A lot of it is unsecured debt for things like subprime autos and discretionary items.

Everyone binged on debt while rates were near zero.

Just keep that in mind.

I read the gloom and doom folks all the time. They always sound persuasive. I'm just saying people who listened to them have missed out on unbelievable growth. I can't believe Stansberry and his ilk have a single paying client left with his track record.

That's fine. I've been bullish the last few years. Some people are permanently pessimistic and it can be annoying, I agree. But they may be broken clocks soon. This is the longest period between recessions. Ever.

Can you honestly tell me this expansion is going to continue indefinitely?

No, corrections are always inevitable, but rule no. 1 has always been don't try to time the market or you'll get burned, no?

Don't try to time the market, but don't buy at the top either. There is a subtle difference between the two.

That's the whole point, you can't tell a top without hindsight. People thought Dow 10K was a top.

You can sort of tell. When the price of something goes up 500% in a relatively short period of time it's probably not wise to buy and bet on another 500% rise.

Gravity.

Mebbe. I thought about buying a few shares of AMZN just for fun at 1000. Then I said to myself, this is madness, the numbers make no sense based on its earnings, not even for fun. Not long after that it was at 1300 and I did it just to spite myself. And now it's close to 1900. So you just don't know and crystal balls, IMO, are useless.

Amazon is almost a monopoly. If they're not already, they probably will be soon.

You're cherry picking.

And wishing I had picked many more cherries. :D But anyone can buy it, they have the same information I do.

I know I did... on baseball cards!!!

You bought baseball cards on credit? :eek:

I have, a T206 Plank in 2006, a Merkle/ Brown Lenox in 2004, a Merkle/ Pirate in 2013, and a 1914 CJ Mathewson in 2016.

And they all turned out to be good moves (well, 3 out of 4 anyway).

This is the exact advice that I got from my money manager.

I don't know, Peter. I've heard that he's successfully predicted 12 of the last 3 recessions. :D

When everything is great and when retail investors want buy stocks without any worry is when the bull market is near the end. This entire bull market has been climbing the "wall of worry"... "going to retest the March 09 lows", the US Debt Downgrade, the Greek debt crisis, then euro contagion, the flash crash, oil crash and then concerns of recession, etc...etc... bottom line the market has moved higher throughout history.

Since 1926 there have been 8 Bear markets with an avg duration of 1.4 years with a cumulative loss of 41%.

Since 1926 there have been 9 bull markets with an avg duration over 9 years and with a cumulative return of 476%.

It seems it's paid off to be more optimistic in the growth of US industry.

Signed T206 Cards
 

Can’t wait to see what the signed Cobb (don’t own), signed Speaker (don’t own), and signed Baker (own) will fetch in the upcoming REA.

Just talking my book!

None of the cards will appreciate. In 2 years there will be a huge downturn and they will go back to being nickel stocks. Sell them to me for 10 cents on the dollar while you can.

Was a joke. Guess I should’ve added a smiley face at the end of the sentence. ��

I don't know about Puttman, but I'm in agreement with the general thinking here. The cards most likely to double or triple in price over the next two years are probably (almost certainly?) some common players. Now if you can only figure out which ones you're all set.

:D :) Hilarious comment considering that issue has probably fluctuated the most (both up and down) during the 18 years I've been collecting graded cards.

The same applies to penny stocks. Personally, I struggle somewhat to predict the future.

I hesitated to mention commons but I firmly believe that, especially better grades.

It could be that tough T206 back, front combinations will jump. Some of them have very low pops.

Scrap!!

Either that or someone will discover they have a long lost cousin in the set, and corner the market

These very rare backs, and I think Drums lead the way:Brown Old Mill
Brown Lenox
Drum
Broadleaf 460
Uzit

I think Uzit is the one that could see a big jump. There are pretty much the same number of Drums and Uzits in the PSA pop report, but Drums go for a lot more. I can see Uzits closing the gap.

Ryan, I agree with that list.

I also agree that Uzit has some room to to gain on Drum. I've always found Uzits extremely tough to acquire.

PSA has graded 143 Uzits and 132 Drums. I don't understand why a Drum is 2.5 to 3 times the price of an Uzit.

More demand for Drum. They're considered the gold standard of rare backs.

This has been discussed before, but I can't find the thread. Uzits are more plentiful, but feature fewer subjects, so there are more Uzits for each subject. For example, I've come across at least 6 different Merkle/ Uzits.

Drums, however, are featured on more subjects, so many of the Drums are one of one or one of two for many subjects. I think that that level of scarceness for many front/ back combo with the Drums raises the price relative to the Uzits.

I agree.

What about Uzits that have pops of 1, 2 or 3? I can understand if there are 9 Merkles why it might sell for less, but it doesn't make sense that the higher pops would bring down the price on the low pop Uzits.

Looks like someone took your advise with Bob Ganley last night. 4 of them sold in a short period of time.

Unearthing this thread. After seeing the PWCC auction results tonight, I'm having to go with the Johnson Portrait. Someone just dropped $2750 on a PSA 2.5.

Come to think of it, people must be feeling pretty good financially right now. I was very surprised at how high some of the bids went.

Pretty robust Speaker prices recently...certainly also Matty, WaJo, Young too...seems like top tier HOF, especially with rare backs, surging.

I got outbid on every single card I bid on tonight with them, figuring to get at least a couple. All were “commons”, with some tougher commons, that a year ago were pulling much less.


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Yes, that WaJo was pretty crazy considering a very similar PSA 2.5 with the "PQ" PWCC sticker sold for $1678 just last month and some thought that price was nuts. :)


While not T206, another surprisingly high result for a Cobb card from the era was the SGC 4 E102 Ty Cobb which ended for $17,656. Yowza!

I guess the question is... is it wise to get the big name T206 hall of famers (Cobb, Wajo etc) (If you don't have them) now before they go up and up , or will they flatten out? You would think they would cool off.

Or maybe they had been stuck in a trading range for years and are just starting to break out? I for one never collected pre war up until a couple of years ago... I collected Mickey, Roberto, Willie, etc... I didn't even collect Goudey... but I always knew the history of Cobb, WaJo, Ruth, Wagner, etc...but it's only been recently that I really had the money to buy them and really got into the history of the different cards and players....started making friends with other collectors in prewar...and maybe there are more people like me that are moving these higher and could have the means to do so for years... Maybe we are getting into the prewar HOF bull market?

I'm collecting the prewar HOFs (not just t206, but candy cards, postcards, etc) for the fun of it and not to make money, so if they don't keep moving higher that's ok...but of course there is that feeling of wanting to do well with what I buy!

I agree Michael I think % wise Speaker might have went up
more than any of them in the past 6 months- year.

I think they will eventually flatten out. Card prices across all sets and years have really gone up because the economy is doing so well.

Plus, why the demand may be high for big name t206 hall of famers right now, so is the supply. Just check the pop reports. There’s a lot out there. Nows a great time to sell, not buy IMO.

That being said, the cards maybe worth picking up now are the ones that are well centered with good registration and color. The supply on those cards are few and far between. But you’ll have to pay a premium.

Definitely true.. Good time to sell for the people who bought t206 cobb, wajo.. about 4 or 5 years ago.

Imo (probably not worth much here) everyone is missing the boat. I still say extra nice commons that are graded EX-MT (6) or higher will win overall. Not total dollar amount but more commons will increase near 100% than high dollar cards.
I am already seeing some that sold for around $160 now sell for $400. Please don't ask for specifics, just my opinion. :rolleyes:

Funny how you say now is the time to sell and not buy when you have a Want to Buy post in the t206 B/S/T section ;)

Touché. Although I find Young and Mathewson portrait are priced about right give or take. But for Cobbs and WaJo fugettaboutit. Prices for a 2 or 1.5 are going for what great eye appeal 3s and 4s were going for just 2 years ago. There’s just too many out there, especially Red Portraits, to justify the price. But then again who knows.

I also believe Speaker is a steal still. HOF RC with only one card in the set.

And while I’m being called out, I’m looking for Keeler, Tinker, Joss portraits...and no I don’t think those players will explode in value. Just love the design :)

Lol! I just thought it was funny to see your two posts :)

You have valid points indeed, the Cobb reds especially....there are a lot out there so if you're buying one I wouldn't necessarily want a beater if I'm buying as an investment.... but as you said who knows! I just picked up a decent PSA 3 Speaker myself and agree that it's under priced, it may be especially timely to grab a nice Speaker with a rare back.

Speaker was an iconic player, but not a big fan of the looks of his t206 card. Nice card to have though as its the only pose of him in the set, which was mentioned.

Seems Mr, Plank has taken off nicely, already in the last few years. Whether he continues that ascent, or not, will be interesting to see. The other picks are fair choices though most have also seen nice increases, overall. I might go with a Cy Young Portrait. I have always enjoyed that card and might own another in the future.

I agree Leon. Young portrait is another one of those cards that if you find one centered with nice bold colors and nice focus it really pops.

Dean, like this?

Ryan, nice Young...

Leon, you mean this one? :)

Those are exactly what I mean! Awesome card Ryan.

Michael, that Hindu Young is cwazzy!!!

Here's mine.

http://www.net54baseball.com/picture...ictureid=10124

Agreed, that Hindu is unreal. Michael, I think I have first right of refusal, no? 😀Dean, yours ain’t so bad either! Great trifecta of Youngs.

It has really just started moving this year. Before that they were going really cheap in my opinion. I think it will continue to move. It is one of the Big 3 along with the t206 Wagner and 33 Goudey Lajoie.

Thanks Dean. Yours is dead centered!

Ryan, your Young is super sharp! Not sure if it's you or Derek with first dibs...or maybe Leon wants it back? :)

Mile high has one in its auction that just started. Let’s see where that ends up

It's graded SGC 3, which is generous considering that crease.

True, but the crease does not affect the picture, which is very clear and crisp and he centering is solid. It’s a hell of a lot nicer than the PSA 1 that sold in Goldin earlier this year for $50k and hardly as nice as the SGC 3 that sold I Heritage earlier this year for $75k. I think this comes in on the high-middle end of that range.