What's gone down in price?
Many many posts about price inflation, wild speculation, investors pushing prices higher and higher, crash coming, etc.
Tell me something that has gone down in price in the last two years. Just curious. |
A lot of stuff I buy hasn’t changed much, but actually gone down? I’m hard pressed to think of a single example. With the $$ flowing in and large inflation, I unfortunately haven’t noticed anything decreasing in absolute value. I sure wish it would happen.
Post-war commons and high numbers I’ve been getting at the same prices as before. Set builders are a dying breed it seems. A lot of lower grade stuff hasn’t moved much or at all on the C and B tier of hall of famers. |
I don't think much, if anything, is down from 2 years ago, but Jordan cards are way down from their 2021 highs. Most vintage basketball too. PSA 7-8 cards of 60s baseball stars also seem to be a fair bit lower than they were earlier this year.
The really high end or scarce stuff seems to be holding steady if not stronger. |
Rickey Henderson PSA 9’s Jeter SP Rookie
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I've noticed a lot of off/low grade 50s HOFers have come down in price a bit since last year. Those and the like 2nd and 3rd tier pre war stuff has come down a bit as well.
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I get slaughtered on everything I want. Sigh.
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51 bowman mantle
52 topps mantle. 55 topps koufax, clemente 54 topps aaron Pretty much across the board. |
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Some items spiked and then went back to previous values. But if you just take the price from 2 years ago and compare to the price now, not much in baseball cards is worth less.
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It was down from the peak. |
‘55 Bowman raw?
I have been picking these up pretty cheap lately, got a lower grade Mantle for $125, and a Mays before that for $75. It may be because I’m ok with some wear but I am always surprised that they don’t match Topps prices.
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IMO we are seeing the FOMO leveling off in response to the volume of cards offered. REA has seven Aaron RCs, 11 Clemente RCs, 8 Koufax RCs. That's not unusual on practically a weekly basis with all of the AHs now. That isn't sustainable in terms of rising prices. The Jordan thing is even worse. Most of the Jordan cards are down 40%-50% since their peaks. A little more sustained weakness and I will go shopping to replace the Jordan cards I sold into the run up.
Once you close the door on the truly iconic cards (1952 T Mantle, 1979 Gretzky, 1986 F Jordan, etc.) from the postwar mainstream, which move seemingly without regard to anything else, it is all just supply meeting demand. |
I think the interesting thing will be to ask this question again in 6-12 months. Right now, two years ago is November 2019. When the reference is summer 2020, the answer might be different.
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Off-centered cards
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2021 Jan-August 21 was the peak....I think we are coming down.
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If one looks at modern cards, they'll find dozens of "can't miss" prospects which can be had for pennies on the dollar...when compared to their 2019 prices.
That's probably not what the OP was asking; however, it's worth mentioning. |
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I don’t know if they are down, but I don’t see much interest in the two card Rice Stix set.
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If your question is what is selling for less now than it was in November 2019, nothing as far as I can tell.
If you are asking what has gone down at some point since then, the answer is everything, because all cards dropped from April to June. Most cards are about where they were a year ago, before the big runup. Generally the superstars are doing better, while the minor stars and commons have slid back a bit. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk |
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Ive gotten nice deals bst ,,great cards decent prices .vintage hockey basketball are getting pricey
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Any junk era cards, especially wax.
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From 2 years ago I don't think anything is down but many cards are down from their highs back in March/April.
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I deviated from vintage to picked up some Jared Kelenic autos. Did not go so well.
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Jackie Robinson 1952 Topps have come down a good amount since the hype
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Most of the stuff that has taken a dive has done so for rational reasons. That's a good thing, not a bad thing. Guys were grossly overpaying for graded base cards. Lebron James 2019 base Prizm PSA 10s were selling for around $600 each last year. I know because I sold about 7 or 8 of them. That's asinine when you consider the pop counts (20,000 and counting for the Zion base PSA 10 from that set, and Lebron was printed at the same rate). |
I guess the cheeky but also correct answer would be high-grade E98's, but that is obviously due to forces outside of the larger market.
Since the seismic early-Pandemic shift in prices, we've had 2 major price corrections -- one in late 2020, and again around March/April 2021. We're clearly not headed below pre-Pandemic prices again, but I don't blame anyone who feels a bit seasick. I've changed my buying behavior several times with different card types during the last 18 months as a result. Although vintage and PreWar Baseball makes up most of my collection, I also have deep interest in vintage Basketball, as well as other sports and also some non-sport. I've laid off buying whatever felt overheated at time, and sold/traded my spares selectively. Right now, vintage Basketball is seriously cratering, and so I've started poking around there again for my long-term needs -- even though we may not be at the bottom there. 80's and newer is also getting hammered, and so I've even started cautiously buying a few truly key Modern cards here and there. To each his/her own, and collect with whatever risk tolerance you have in this market. | |
Everything has come down since the peak (Feb-April 2021) but everything is still higher than what it was from late 2019.
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I think green T206 Cobbys have fallen a little...
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What’s going to happen If the investor exits the card market ?? |
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https://www.psacard.com/auctionprice...ues/237936#g=4 https://www.psacard.com/auctionprice...ues/238055#g=5 |
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Totally off on this tangent, because prices are definitely up not down over the last two years (the question in the OP), but.... Original photos (particularly PSA authenticated ones) also seem to be quite strong now. While it's harder to make exact comparisons due to lack of grading, I had a more than a dozen photos in the Love of the Game auction that ended last night and (with only a couple of exceptions) the prices were much higher than I would have expected in Feb/Mar/April. Similarly, the two photos I wanted to buy also sold for much more than I believe I could have bought them for earlier. |
As folks have mentioned earlier, the Jordan RC has come down significantly since its spring peak. Just to add some numbers to the discussion, earlier this year, a PSA 8 was bringing upwards of $18k; now they are trading at $8k or less.
But while I don't have the numbers in front of me, I'd bet that they are still above what they were two years ago at the end of 2019. |
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That's the insane thing about some of these modern cards . . . . who knows how many more PSA 10s are sitting in unopened cases in people's closets. |
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Small example: I had been searching for a 1927 World Series game 1 ticket (Pop 21) after I failed to win one for around $500 a year plus ago. Three have come up for auction the last year and they sold for $2k-$3k. A graded version has a BIN for $10k (which I assume will sit there for a while). I was happy to land the one on Love of the Game today. Maybe a general statement that some memorabilia has seemed to jump in price. We have seen some type 1 photos, tickets, bats (although I have not been watching them particularly). We have seen a few threads of collectors here that have shifted focus a bit to memorabilia since it is a little more affordable, so I am sure that is a reason. |
When People Say Panic Sell Get Out Don’t… when People say your missing the boat you better jump on this ship Don’t.
It’s Never as Good As it Seems and It’s Never as Bad as it Seems. Do your own homework |
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Okay, so we have a total of about 2 examples of cards and game tickets that have gone above from the Feb-Apr 2021 prices. So apparently 99.2% has come down and not everything. |
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I think now it's a great time to buy the dip before another uprun. Maybe a year, maybe 2. |
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Last night, I had a 1923 Ruth portrait that I thought was stellar and probably wouldn't have sold for less than $3K go for $1800 but had (admittedly nice...but not Ruth!) photos of Ted Williams and Pee Wee Reese sell for for $7200 and $4800 respectively and some really lesser photos (just original news service photos) reach $600-900. I very rarely see that happen with cards, where auctions seem uniformly well followed. With photos, it happens all the time...just a crapshoot if you get two interested parties at the same auction. |
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IMO high grade Stan Musial cards are showing some signs of upward momentum as well as T200 Fatima Cleveland with J Jax himself, casually leaning on his bat. This card could soar.
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It appears that many of the “herd” cards - iconic yet very common and mostly post 1940 - have gone down since April. But the big boy and rarer pre war cards, especially blue chip players and sets, most certainly are NOT down since April and continue to climb. This includes the T206 Green Cobb, which also set a record last in LOTG (see second attachment). |
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And by the way that is the story of the whole modern basketball market. For example, I have an Iverson rookie that I bought for $200 5 years ago. It ran all the way up to $4000, and then dropped back down to $1500. |
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What's gone down in price? Apparently none of the crap I collect. :o:eek:
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I follow Exhibit cards. The big boys in the 1920s issues (Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Johnson) and the rookies (PC Back Foxx, PC Back Grove) are very strong. What I've noticed marked jumps on lately are the lower grade examples of these players. The next tier of HOFers are a mixed bag. Speaker, Hornsby, Collins, Alexander, that caliber card. Lesser HOFers are basically bargains relative to other issues of the era. It is a little more difficult to follow these than T206s because there are relatively few of them and they don't come up in every auction. If two or more guys need the card for a set and it isn't easy, watch out.
LOTG last night was in line with the trends. PC Back Grove RC PSA 5 $8400. 1927 Cobb PSA 5 $2280. 1922 Eastern Exhibit (EE) Johnson PSA 3 $1560. 1922 EEs of Speaker, Hornsby and Alexander were between $500-$600. However, 1925 Collins PSA 2 $120, 1922 EEs Bancroft and Wheat were between $150-$250. Bidders went to war over a PSA 4 1922 Eastern Exhibit Heilmann $1440. It is a great card but there is no reason for him to sell for Cobb money. Had to be bidders warring for their sets. |
I do not see any trend of downward pricing.
With so many auctions and so many cards and memorabilia hitting the auction I see the money being spent but sometimes people need to regroup their funds and/or sometimes some auctions get overlooked And with many ending at the same time people have to be more controlled with what they are bidding on so sometimes items get less bids. But overall the main players like Ruth, Cobb, wagner, and Jackson their cards are hot and even their “lesser known” cards are starting to increase in value as people are getting priced out of other cards |
I'm not sure if it's been mentioned in this thread, but 19th century hasn't generally kept pace with price increases.
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It would be different if I was chasing the orange shimmer rainbow prism super-duper-fractor of that 19 year old sure-fire future Hall of Famer. Alas, a T206 WaJo portrait (and others) keep climbing. Now...where did I put that time machine? |
The answer is Trevor Bauer and DeShaun Watson, that’s what’s gone down! :D
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Photos
IMO photos have increased in value over the past few years and offer collectors an alternative to more traditional cards. Unlike most vintage cards, vintage photos can be unique, or 1/3, 1/5...like some the shiny new age stuff that some collectors like. I feel like the photo market will look significantly different in the next two years as it appeals to more and more people. I would be surprised to see vintage photo prices decrease in value. One could argue that photos currently offer the best bang for your vintage buck.
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I guess my last response didn't really address the topic of this thread, but a comment that was made. I don't know if they have decreased in value, but some of the rarer "commons" in E card sets have been stagnant for some time. Many years ago I put the E103 Williams Caramel set together..."commons were in the $250 -- $300 range back then...seem to be at the same price (depending on population) today.
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Also, someone mentioned Jeter's SP Rookie...It's definitely come down since the peak earlier this year (like most modern cards, including Jordan), but Modern rose significantly, peaked, then came down and have settled well above where they were a few years ago. Re: blue chip vintage (T206 HOFers/rare backs, 33 Goudey Ruths, Cracker Jacks, etc, etc), well they've only gone up and up... |
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What a miserable way to go around life. * I should add Glyn and I get along very well in person. But sometimes on the board I am not so sure. . |
What I have seen is a trend toward AH purchases. Of my own purchases, 2-3 years ago, I found the majority (probably 75%) of the cards that I was interested in on eBay or the BST. Since the 2021 run-up, finding cards for my collection from these sources has almost dried up (especially eBay, but also BST to some extent). Now I use the AH's for about 75% of my cards. Purchases of the cards from the AH's have "cost me more", so looking at the price numbers, most of my purchases are certainly up from 2 years ago, but most if not all of my "new" cards from AH purchases are still at Jan-April 2021 prices. I have not seen any drop here, to the point that I have had to ALTER my collecting plans.
Dave |
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Maybe time to switch gears and try some of the leafy green stuff instead. |
Compared to the 1952 Topps Mantle, there's ample evidence that green Cobb is much more rare, as expected. 970 Cobbs compared to 1806 Mantles in the PSA record. I'd bet there's more demand for 52 Mantle but maybe demand for Cobb is finally working on that gap. Either way, there's a strong case to be made that it was undervalued pre-pandemic and likely still is.
As for volatility, the good news is those of us who migrated from crypto were looking for a safe haven in the Hobby. I can't speak for the firms that formed in 2020 and started buying up Hobby standards from all sports, but I'm sure they will look to manipulate the market just like they do with bitcoin. The key will be recognizing when the sell-offs take place. It seemed like one took place last summer but I really wouldn't know. |
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