The Next "Big Cards"
 

What do you think will be the next 48 Robinson/52 Mantle/54 Aaron/89 Griffey to soar up to crazy heights relative to where it is now?

I'm thinking the '51 Bowman Willie Mays. Especially after he passes, but even before. I think folks will realize what a near-perfect ballplayer he was, as well as recognizing he spent some time in the Negro Leagues.

Other likely candidates (IMO) are:

-'53 Topps Satchel Paige
-'69 Topps Reggie Jackson
-'77 Topps Dale Murphy
-'79 Topps Ozzie Smith

Thoughts?

52
 

I think 52 stars, minor stars and rare high number cards have a lot of room to grow and seem to be in high demand.

Assuming I could even hope to predict, I wouldn't reveal it here...just sayin'.

-'69 Topps Reggie Jackson
-'77 Topps Dale Murphy
-'79 Topps Ozzie Smith

These three are wishful thinking. None of them have the sort of appeal needed, either from a player perspective or a set perspective. A 1952 Topps stars run is more likely a good answer, but which ones is the question. Does anyone care about Enos Slaughter? Really?

The 1953 Paige is already off to the races; we will see a $1,000+ PSA 1 before the end of the run. Paige has such a small number of career-contemporary cards that once the 1953 skyrockets, look to oddball issues to follow: his Exhibit card, Indians team issues and regionals, etc. I'd be looking at very early cards of star Negro Leaguers who made it into MLB. Larry Doby, for example, is criminally undervalued. Orestes Minoso is another one who should be in the HOF. Another place to mine is the minor league cards of star NLers who never made it to an MLB cart but whose NL stats are going to be treated as MLB stats. That will generate a wave of enthusiasm for them.

This seems like it's already happening too - when I first started thinking about buying some cards again last fall, it seemed like a no-brainer to pick up a 51B Mays as an undervalued card. I intended to get a nice one for, say, $3-4k. I didn't make the leap right away, though, and within a few weeks they were twice that.

The 51B Mays is already off and running, no next about it.
I have a PSA 10 Topps Gold Soto US300 that I was planning on selling in the Spring and then buying the Mays with that money but I think I miscalculated on that one.

I can see Koufax’s RC and Clemente’s RC having a go. I know Clemente already had a big bump in 2015 or 16 but I could see those 2 cards gaining a lot of steam.

I’ll add the T206 Eddie Collins. That card should be at the same level as Lajoie and Speaker.

I’ll also add the 39 Play Ball Ted Williams.

Pretty much ANY Jackie Robinson card...with only a handful of options of mainstream cards (years 1948 through 1956) I think eventually the demand for authentic, playing days cards of Jackie will reach the demand currently bestowed only on Ruth.

Jackie is likely the only baseball player that will continue to be taught about to kids in history class (for obvious reasons) literally forever.

SOME day, I think maybe even the Mantle mystique will fade a little...but Jackie Robinson and Babe Ruth will be timeless.

Funny enough, I'm not good at taking my own advice. I very recently saved up a large-ish sum of money (for me) and decided I wanted to add a major piece to my collection. I currently don't own any Jackie cards, and the only Ruth card I own is rough looking 1935 Goudey 4 in 1. I debated for WEEKS whether to add a playing days Jackie card or a playing days Ruth card. And as the weeks went by, prices on both seemed to increase.

In the end, I went with Ruth (a beat up 1931 W517)...but only because his cards seem a little scarcer (and therefore more likely to get out of my price range), and I'm hopeful this current price spike will at least level off and leave me time to still save up and grab a Jackie Robinson card. I might have to lower my condition expectations, but hopefully SOMETHING will be available in my budget.

I am hoping Ruth cards don't keep going up since I still need the 1935 Goudey 4 in 1 with the 5A back (I have the other 3 Ruths from the set). I missed out on a few of them and now I am worried that I will be priced out of any that do show up.

Oddly, the 5A version is the one I have. I knew it was one of the rare ones. But I got it cheap a couple years ago because it has creases and a thumb tack hole right in the center.

I am S L O W L Y trying to put together a low grade basic set of 1935 Goudey too (all 36 card fronts) while also building a few of the puzzles. I have puzzle 5 complete (with the Ruth). I need two more to go on puzzle 4, and then most of puzzle 1 and then all of either puzzle 8 or 9 to get me to the 36.

It is really kind of paralyzing. I have a big wad of cash on the sideline from past sales waiting for a good investment to pick up but everything is so GDMF expensive right now that I am reluctant.

There are five graded 51B Mays currently on eBay for BIN (only one for auction):

PSA 5(MK) - $24,900 (+$106.24 shipping!)
SGC 4.5 - $15,951 (although shipping is free!)
PSA Auth/Alt - $8,750
PSA Auth/Alt - $8,999.99
PSA 2 - $8,990**

**When Dean's starts looking like a pretty good price...

I think 51 bowman mantle, his true rookie

I'll second the Collins, he's always undervalued. Also Wajo portrait which has already passed Young and is tracking behind Red Cobbs. Also Lajoie cards in general are undervalued.

i sure hope so

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...ollins%20E.jpg

Probably my favorite T206 image.

That, sir, is an absolutely beautiful card.

Given the difference in Modern between a PSA 9 vs. PSA 10 is really big. I might guess Willie Mays & Hank Aaron's in PSA 9 has headroom.

As a Jackie collector, I may be biased, but I agree with you. Jackie has the perfect mix of historical importance that transcends baseball and great looking cards from iconic sets. The '48 Leaf, '49 Bowman, '52 and '53 Topps are all instantly recognizable, and the '47 Bond Bread portrait has gained steam as his true rookie card (and tough to find with less than 200 or so examples). All of these have soared in price along with other top cards, but I think they will become even harder to obtain next year when it's the 75th anniversary of his debut.

Good luck on your search for a nice Robinson. The '54 through '56 Topps are wonderful looking cards, too, and more plentiful in low to mid grades.

Except the super short printed Leaf, the other two Paige cards have always seemed a relative bargain to me, as well as the Exhibit which was pretty tough to find when I was looking.

I would also consider Sadaharu Oh, there might be one of his cards out there for every 500 Mantles or maybe less.

Hey, I like Enos Slaughter. I wouldn't pay 10K for one of his cards...

For you, then:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...0Slaughter.jpg

I just checked and there isn't one Paige available on eBay right now. Only two have sold in the last four months, most recently a raw one for $420.

I agree on Satchel, I picked up an Exhibit real cheap a few years ago and it's gaining some steam now! Speaking of Paige, here are front and back scans of what I have catalogued as a 1948 Satchel Paige / Bobo Newsome 5" x 8" Two Sided Premium. Never seen another and I've never been able to get any real info on it (I also have a Cobb / Rabbit Maranville from the same series). If anyone can tell me more about it that would be great, maybe I have something here LOL!

Thanks. When I purchased it the card 'spoke' to me like few do.

Probably will be tightly focused around cards I don't own.

All kidding aside, I think the demand will increase for the bigger stars with the best looking cards. Folks coming into the hobby (bringing the $$) are not gong to want someone that the general public does not know (Eddie Collins) or a card that does not present well, like a black and white exhibit or the cartoonish 1938 Goudey. So what might that be?? In my opinion:

1953 Topps Mays and some of his later cards in high grade
DiMaggio cards, especially the 1941 Play Ball and the 1948-49 Leaf
Ted Williams' cards
Yogi's cards in high grade
and possibly Stan Musial's cards, as they seem to be generally undervalued.

I paid 400 for mine which in hindsight was probably a good price.

Stashed this away few years back ...

51B Mays, SGC 5, just closed at $11,211.

Previous high for SGC 5 was $5,177.77 in Feb. 2020.

Insane.

I just picked up an Enos.

I would guess the remaining 50's Mantles that haven't already skyrocketed will start to move, as people start to pass on the '53 Topps and earlier as being too expensive. '56 for sure, and then cards that are great but somewhat underappreciated like 1959 Topps #10.

The '53 Paige already mentioned is another great example. Two years ago or so I had a nicely centered PSA 5 that I bought for around $400 and later sold I think for like $590. Obviously that was not the best decision.

I also think the '68 Topps Ryan RC has some room to climb still based on heights it has achieved in the past. With due respect to cards like the '63 Rose or the '67 Seaver, it's still the marquee rookie card of the decade.

I would imagine it's time for several of the tougher and attractive Mickey Mantle cards to move, the ones for which there might be one high grade available for every 100 to 500 Mantle gum cards of a given year. --- Brian Powell

Best to get on later Mantles now because they are starting to move even in lesser grades. Latest Sterling results: SGC 3 1956 gray back $960. a 1964 PSA 6.5 for $840, PSA 1 $96. 1955 Bowman PSA 2 $330 PSA 3 $420. 1961 Mantle MVP PSA 7 $450. 1963 SGC 70 $450. 1969 yellow letters PSA 5 $276.

A 1953 Topps Paige PSA 3 sold for $720.

Nothing sold in the last ten years looks like a good idea right about now.

One sure sign of the lunacy: my wife yelled at me yesterday for not spending more money on baseball cards twenty years ago. She said "Why don't you have any of these expensive cards? Didn't you have the chance to buy some?" I said "Sure, but with what? I was sole support for a new house and you and a toddler. What was I supposed to do tell you to skip meals for a week or turn off the heat because i wanted to buy a baseball card?"

LOL.... I'm in a little different "situation". I sold my Gehrig RC, Jeter SP PSA 9, 52 Topps Mantle, etc. over 6 years ago. My wife told me then not to sell. Could I possibly admit that she was right? No way!! I sold those cards to pay for our in-ground pool. I figure that pool has cost us over $200k!! I guess I'll have to keep all of this a secret.

I have to throw out the 1947 Bond Bread Jackie Robinson. I know it's already seen increases, but I would not be surprised to see this card really explode.

https://www.net54baseball.com/pictur...ictureid=19158

:D

Just trying to help, Adam, not interfere, but just in case you weren't aware, this book just came out at most bookstores recently.

LOL - That's AWESOME!
 

I haven't seen that before - thanks for sharing!

I agree with this, and purchased one a little while ago. Wish I could've afforded one as nice as yours, but my beater PSA 1 will have to do. I think it's such a great looking card in-hand. Pics don't do it justice.

I'm going to agree with some of the cards already mentioned with a few additions:

1. 1939 Play Ball Ted Williams - I think this card has been somewhat overlooked the past few years but might get it's rightful due with all the new eyes on all things vintage. As the greatest hitter the game ever saw, I'm kind of surprised this still can be had for what I think are very affordable prices.

2. 1949 Bowman Jackie Robinson - With the 1948/49 Leaf already in the stratosphere, I think this card will be the consolation prize to many who want the earliest Jackie card as possible that's not completely out of reach.

3. 1952 Topps Willie Mays - While the '51 Bowman is deservedly getting the accolades it deserves now, I believe the "52 Topps is more recognizable, especially after being one of the featured cards in the Topps 2020 set where multiple artists did their own take on it.

4. 1953 Topps Satchel Paige - As already mentioned by others, this looks like it's beginning its ascent. Just a beautiful card all-around of a player with few major league card releases.

5. 1958 Topps Roger Maris - As the "true" single season HR leader without the black cloud of performance enhancing drugs, (the same way that many still think Aaron as the "true" career HR leader) I think this card is criminally undervalued.

Welp, that SGC 5 is looking like a pretty good deal after a PSA 3 just sold for, wait for it...

$12,700.

Previous high: $7,812. Nine days ago.

High before that: $4200, last November.

This is just madness. The card literally tripled in 2 1/2 months.

I wish I had a crystal ball but I don’t so I do this... The Next Big Card For Me is Keeping my Powder Dry, holding onto my money until this craziness stops. If I miss it I miss it, I can live without them. Just my take on it.

Probably a stupid question but how does one tell if market manipulation is going on? With so few sales, it would be very easy to shill or other manipulation to artificially increase price. Just wondering as this started in the autograph market about 5 or so years ago with rare inscription baseballs.

I think there is a lot of non-collectors jumping in as buyers and holders. For vintage, I don't see this as largely a "flip game" as much as an enjoyable, investing opp. I could be wrong.

That said, they aren't looking for Eddies Collins. Who? That is what most would say if asked. A touch of Gehrig and (optional) Cobb, Jackie and Satch, Mantle and Ruth, Hank and Willie sprinkled in with some Ted, 70s HOF Bigs like Schmidt and Brett, and then there is Junior - whose 89 Upper Deck PSA 10 with a gem rate of 5% will hit 8K plus. Maybe 10K. And soon.

Rather miss the run up, than be left holding the bag. Only my opinion.

See the late 80s for a historic run up on anything modern

Did you miss what happened with Project 2020 last May/June? Yes there are lots of people jumping in, but how long are they going to stay? What happens when prices start dropping? Are they going to cash out and move on to something else? If you are in before the run up, you will be up. If you are buying near the peak, who knows?

I'm speaking of vintage cards. I bought a few Project2020 on release and a few on the after market but nothing big. I think that was a whole different ballgame than Mantle and Griffey cards seeing substantially higher pricing as of late.

Completely agree here, while the 51B is his true rookie its no different than the 51/52T Mantle comparison. The 52T is the better looking card, arguably more iconic and is way undervalued compared to the Mantle. It will close the gap to the Mantle over time.

I would respectfully disagree that the '52 Topps Mays will ever close the gap to the Mantle. Even disregarding the high number / low number comparison - it's had 40+ years to do that in the retail hobby, and it's never happened or even come close. That's not to say that Willie won't also reach absurd prices, but if he does my bet is that the Mantle continues to soar even higher.

1968 ryan, t206 eddie collins, 1954 banks, 1955 koufax, 1955 clemente, 1963 rose, 1967 seaver, 1967 carew.

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I respectfully agree/disagree
 

Mantle will always be the king of the 52 set. Right behind him is Mays and Robinson (look what happened with this card this year!). With Mantle selling where he has and Robinson taking off where he has, it stands to reason that Mays has some catching up to do.

Very true if that Mays goes on a run like Robinson did, it could stand to appreciate significantly.

Given the meteoric rise of the '48 Leaf, I suspect this card will continue to soar:

https://www.collectorfocus.com/image...fac.-signature

I think the rest of the Bond Bread set has room to grow as well.

I'm surprised this card hasn't followed suit, but I suspect that is because it continues to be labeled a 1948 card despite being distributed in late 1947:

https://www.collectorfocus.com/image...inson-kneeling

Jackie aside, I think Mays, Aaron, and Paige will continue to see strong growth. Perhaps Ted Williams as well.

I agree on the Jackie Bond Bread Portrait. There's no reason for it not to be the most significant Robinson card. It was issued first and widely released and in today's world I find it especially significant as it was marketed to African American communities first.

Happy to add my own low-grade example to my collection. Don't think it'll be affordable much longer:

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...8d631be36e.jpg

I'm a big fan of the Old Gold's. The write ups on the back are great.

"And the first time he ever picked up a golf club, he went around in 99. It should come as no surprise that as a kid, he was even a world-beater at marbles."


Attachment 439762

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Attachment 439764

Attachment 439765

I'm seeing a rise in May's Berk Ross issue, which is unfortunate because of course that's the next card I was going to target :mad:

Is what it is, unfortunately. It still boggles my mind how dirt cheap Frank Robinson Cards are.

Agreed! I love the backs of these cards.

1967 topps rod carew

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Meh. Kim Jong Il's first round, he shot a 58 with six aces. One of which was on a par 5.

Agree, that exhibit Satchel Paige is quite rare and I just recently got lucky finding one. Been looking for a long time.

It was printed in 1949, same year as the Bowman.

The Robinson exhibit is another insanely underrated one. Printed in 1948.

The are both beautiful cards, although larger, who cares? I love mine and no plans on selling.

The Robinson Exhibit was printed for several years and is available. It is undervalued, but is nothing like the Exhibit Paige, which was a one-year wonder (1949) though perhaps made it into 1950. The 1962 Pittsburgh Exhibit is another absolutely brutal Paige card to find. He pitched 5 games (25 innings) in the PCL (AAA) in 1961 so I guess his inclusion in the set wasn't quite as weird as it seemed to me when I first heard of it.

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...ds%20Paige.jpg

You are the first I have heard mention this about the Robinson card (though I would expect to hear it from no one else haha). So even despite the all capital 5/8" "MADE IN U.S.A" print markings, the actual printing spanned several years? Hope you don't mind me picking your brain. Thanks!

What you are referring to are print variations from year to year. However, not all years featured completely redone artwork. The company wasn't thinking of obsessive OCD whackos like us when it made its sets each year, so the attention to detail wasn't there. I mean, they got so lazy that the just crudely crossed stuff out sometimes.

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...comparison.jpg
https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...ize/Doby_1.jpg

The Rizzuto and Doby had "An Exhibit Card" scratched out rather than removed and redone.

The point is that micro-analyzing the made in USA/printed in USA only gets you so far, it is a rule with many exceptions. The only way to definitively determine whether a card had a multiple year run is to see uncut sheets, which is how we know for sure that the Salutations Ted Williams was issued through 1960:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...xcut311081.JPG

Other evidence is on the machine headers. When you see different cards clustered together it is because some cards had multi-year runs. There are also checklists made as promos in 1950 and they show Jackie Robinson but not Satchel Paige.

Further proof is in the population. The Robinson card is readily found in normal times in decent numbers. The Paige has always been a 'handful available at best' kind of card. I have been watching them for years because I love the card.

This is very helpful and agreed when it comes to just finding them in general. The Satchel I recently got, dug like crazy to get and then one day just landed on my lap out of pure "luck". Robinsons, I have a couple and didn't need to sweat in order to get them.

I've seen the scratched out versions plenty of times but did not realize the extent to which the same markings were printed. I have never noticed differences in the Robinson card aside from the density of the sepia tone from images online (which could just be lighting). The ones I have held in my hands, nothing.

And you never know. Maybe they did all these things just to play a massive prank on OCD people 70 years in the future :). If so, mission accomplished.

https://i.ibb.co/VmpLtMQ/4849exsheets.jpg

this is all I was trying to say.

While I also believe this to be true . Mantle , Mathews , Robinson are all in the 6 series . Mays is not

True however the difference in overall pops is minimal compared to the appeal and status of the mays card in the hobby. It’s been over looked for way to long especially compared to mantle. No reason at all that its not closer in value to the mantle. Mays was a top 5 player and people were sleeping on the obvious.


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I think the 52 Campy has some room to grow. Hi number, HOFer that played in the Negro Leagues, and a beloved Dodger.

One other one I've been thinking might make some big leaps is the 54 Red Heart Mantle. Now that the 52T is out of reach for the basic collector, this card has such a similar visual appeal (mixed with the 54 Bowman) that I think it'll makes strides in months to come.

The fair sex...
 

Adam - thanks for reminding me of the hilarious side benefits of married life. I used to stash my collection in a huge lockbox in an unheated garage because my better half once tried to give it away to a relative while I was out of town on business. That little gift would have included all of the Topps and Bowman sets from '51 to '55 in ex-mt or better, along with numerous other sets from the time period. Granted, it was back in the '80's, but it took all of my self control to keep from putting her tchotchke collection out on the lawn for sale while she was at work. I imagine if we were still attached, there would be a lot of pressure now to sell so that we could get into the lucrative rare tchotchke market.:D

I would agree that the set and the player are both great but the image is not for me. I think his 1951 Bowman card is probably his best looking and from a great set. Not to mention it also a year earlier.

I would say 1951 Bowman Mays , Ford , Williams still have room to grow. The 1951 Bowman has eye appeal and a bunch of big name rookies and HOFers.

it’s modern basketball but I’m shocked how the 1990 Kentucky shaq (his first card) sells so low. You can pick one up for a $100 or so. I can see that one blowing up.

A ‘52 Topps Jackie PSA 3 just closed on eBay for $16k. That card is exploding and I don’t think it’s done yet.

I bought a PSA 2 two years ago for $750. This is insanity.

a 51 bowman mantle psa 7 sold for 115k
There's an 8 currently at heritage now with BP over 400k with 12 days to go. If that one sells high, it will bring the price up across the board

I bought mine for 20% of that 2 years ago. It is like I am done collecting unless I sell something to pay for a purchase.

I realize there has been a spike in these off brand cards, specifically the exhibits. However, I'd stick with topps, and to a lesser extent bowman for the next tidal wave. I'm bias towars signed cards and 1952 topps. I've always thought pretty much the break through year of anything would be worth something.

86 fleer return to basketball, 89 upper deck, gpk series 1, mtg alpha deck, 1953 Corvette etc.

2 PSA 6 sold for 100k today
And 2 PSA 8 at heritage and Goldin now bidding at around 500k with BP

Will see how high when it ends

Unreal. I think you're right. The key postwar set, high #, great image. A PSA 1 went for $6,650. At this rate, I don't think any grossly intact card will sell for less than mid-four figures. It has surpassed the 1947 Bond Bread portrait RC. A PSA 1.5 sold for $5200 this week.

A PSA 9 Ozzie just went for $7700 today (and not PWCC or Probstein!). I got mine for $2550 less than a month ago, and thought I overpaid. WOW.

The Next "Big Cards"
 

I can’t wait to see the bagholders after August. The market will come down after the National.

I know I won’t be one.


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I’ll be shocked if the National Happens This Year in Chicago, Strongsville and Chantilly have already been canceled and Philly Postponed.