I never said that proved anything. All I said was that he showed that the listed PWCC sales were around other market sales at the time. And even specifically worded it "assumed" sales.

Peter, you seem like a good guy, but I've never seen anyone find so many ways to argue with people on all sides of debates like you do (even when they agree with you, like here). I've made my suspicion about the sale(s) clear :-)

I was AGREEING with you. Restating your point. Edited it to be clear.

No problem. It came off a different way to me (from the wording)!

Posting this without comment but it appears shill bidding accusations and faux market bubbles have been made in the video game world as well:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/youtu...190000435.html

There was probably shill bidding in the agora.

Try to find one single auction marketplace where shill bidding isn't a concern. I'll wait. Some are more rampant than others, with eBay by far being the worst, but no matter how hard they try, it's simply not entirely preventable. And the difference between a 'reserve price' and a 'shill bid' is often semantics at best anyhow. So much so that shill bidding is perfectly legal in some states.

I wouldn't say eBay is the worst. I'd say the people on eBay are the worst. As far as I know eBay isn't bidding on auctions for sellers.

Going back to some of the posts questioning card sales for losses, and why would rational people due that, don't forget that more and more people are looking at cards like investments, and therefore not thinking anything like collectors. I'm not saying this is what was actually happening, but did anyone ever consider that someone purposely selling into a down market may have done so as an investor to generate capital losses to then offset against capital gains they already had from sales, and thus save on income taxes? And if the item being sold is a known market commodity that can possibly be expected to go back up in the future (Jordan rookies?), I can also see that seller waiting to get around the wash rules to be able to buy a similar card at the current reduced value back so they hold onto it for future appreciation. They end up basically with the same asset they would have had had they not sold it, but now they get the advantage of utilizing a current capital gains tax loss to put/keep more cash in their pockets. I always called this practice harvesting tax losses.

So there may be other reasons for people doing things that aren't so nefarious, that no has considered.

No.

Oh, so you had considered that already?

Or maybe his wife found out he was cheating so he decided to sell the card to reduce his liabilities in divorce. Also possible, isn't it? You're really out on a limb, Bob, with the speculation.

Bob is not out on a limb at all. Not even remotely. There is a MASSIVE faction of this market that treats their collections as assets. They have no emotional connection to these cards whatsoever. Not wanting to sell a card at a loss is a completely irrational behavior that is only held by true collectors, not investors. Try putting yourself in an investor's shoes as opposed to your collector shoes for a moment. Instead of it being a Mayweather RC, imagine it was an investment in General Motors stock or Pfizer or pick some other random stock. Say 2 months after you bought it, the market crashes and you want to move some of your money around. Maybe you want to put it in gold or silver or into bitcoin or some other investment opportunity. Are you really not going to sell that General Motors stock for its current market price because you paid double what it's worth today? Really? Are you really telling me that nobody does this?

"Nope, I'm not selling my Pfizer stock until they net me a profit! I don't take losses, God dammit!!!"

This isn't some guy who's been saving up his paper route money until he finally had enough to land his holy grail Mayweather RC. This is someone with money to invest with no emotional connection whatsoever to their cards. He was never going to keep that card. He probably never even saw it in person. Just bought it on eBay, shipped it to his vault, kept it there, and then sold it from his vault so he could put the money in Bitcoin instead.

Peter, I distinctly said this wasn't necessarily what was happening in the specific cases several posters were going back and forth about. But it does seem true that as our hobby appears to really be plunged into the investment side of things that actions of some may start more from an investment way of thinking. I've had numerous discussions with people adopting this investment strategy over the years, especially in times where markets are down, like the crash back in 2008, or even the 2020 market hit from the pandemic. They still like the investment (card) and don't necessarily want to sell it, but if there is a way they could still keep that investment (card) AND also generate a current tax saving capital loss, why wouldn't they go for it? Time value of money and all, they could take the dollars they saved from harvesting the tax losses and use it to buy more investments (cards) that they maybe couldn't have afforded to buy now otherwise. You would likely be surprised how many people would think of harvesting capital losses like that.

I'm not speculating at all, this thinking and investment strategy happens every day. I'm merely trying to point out that there may be other legit reasons for what some people say are attempts to manipulate the card market that they did not realize and consider. This hobby is undergoing such rapid and dramatic changes right now that you have to be aware of new ideas and concepts going forward, and can't just blindly assume things aren't changing, whether you like or agree with them or not.

So I am not out on any limb and what I'm saying is absolutely valid, whether it is applicable to the specific cases discussed in this thread or not. If not those cases, maybe the next ones down the road.

And even your postulated reason for selling having to do with a pending divorce could be a valid alternative as well, however, a lot less likely I think than my suggestion for selling to harvest capital losses for tax purposes. First off, you said they may have sold to reduce liabilities, don't you mean reduce assets so they could then try to hide the cash and pay less in the divorce settlement? Of course, that begs the question of whether the spouse knew about the card to begin with. Assuming they did, the sale could have been to establish the exact value for the divorce proceedings and make it real easy to just split the cash between the parties. Otherwise, if the spouse knew of the card they would likely tell their attorney, who would likely inquire and investigate what it ended up selling for and where did the cash go. And if the spouse was not aware of the card, I think the last thing you'd want to do is sell it to potentially create a taxable event that the spouse's attorney could pick up from doing a review of the divorcing couple's tax returns. In that case you'd be better off leaving the card alone and just keeping it, and a big reason why a sale because of divorce may be less likely than a sale to utilize capital losses.

I said reduce liabilities IN divorce, which to me meant reducing what one would owe the spouse and so in effect means reducing one's own assets. But sorry if I was imprecise there.

And rational or not I think it does happen that guys getting divorced try to hide their collection or cash part of it out. There was a member here who shall remain nameless who had his whole collection on a personal website. When he became headed for divorce, it disappeared.

Or it could be a person who is both a collector and an investor who still wants to keep the card, but sells it say to realize a $50K capital loss. They wait 31 days then before going back to try to buy virtually the same card they just sold, for hopefully no more than what they had just sold it for, and if really lucky, for even less so they have some cash from the sale left over. So they end up still owning the same card, but now when they do their taxes they maybe save upwards of $14,000 ($50K loss X 28%) that they otherwise wouldn't have had to buy/invest in other cards, or whatever else they're now interested in.

FYI. I mentioned waiting at least 31 days before trying to buy a similar card back because in sales of stocks, if you sold 100 shares of a particular stock for a loss, but then bought 100 shares of that same stock within a month, either before or after the date you had sold the 100 shares, you would not be able to claim the capital loss for tax purposes under what is known as the wash rule. Now baseball cards are not exactly the same as a company's stock, especially graded cards with their own unique cert numbers, etc. But cards can and are now also considered investments, and I don't know if an IRS agent would argue that one PSA 10 Jordan rookie is the same as another to be able to invoke the wash rule against someone selling one at a loss, and then buying a different PSA 10 Jordan rookie just a couple weeks later. Don't know of any cases out there, but why take a chance if you don't have to, just wait for the month to pass to be sure. Throwing this out as general knowledge for anyone reading this thread.

No problemo, i simply took the liability term from a different viewpoint. We're actually on the same wavelength. And I do think what you said is very rational and can and has/does happen. It was a very good, alternative selling reason, in addition to mine regarding sales to take advantage of otherwise unrealized capital losses. I still think the utilization of capital losses would happen more than divorced related sales, but both still happen. And I'm guessing there are still other plausible reasons that neither of us has thought of as well. Just saying you can't automatically say all weird looking sales are due to shilling or attempts at market manipulation.

I agree but when the seller is PWCC and the same exact card nominally sells THREE times in a short time span, I am going to be skeptical until proven wrong.

Peter, I'm with you 100%. If it looks, like a duck, swims like a duck, quacks like a duck.............................!

Still, there is always a small chance that one of these other plausible reasons could be a part of what people are seeing. Just trying to keep a somewhat open mind till more facts and info are out there going forward. Like that recent revelation by Travis/Snowman about PWCC being limited in how many people can be blocked from their Ebay auctions at any one time. Never heard that before, but guessing other Ebay sellers on here may be able to confirm or deny that. I don't know his sources and how accurate what he said truly is, and this has nothing to do with other allegations such as alleged alliances with card doctors and so on, but if any of what Travis/Snowman said is true, that may change, or at least point to differences in, the narrative regarding alleged shill bidding issues with PWCC. I am by no means defending them and saying they are entirely innocent, nor am I saying they are entirely guilty. Just that I don't think there is enough fully vetted and credible information out there yet to make a final, conclusive decision.

Assets that go down in a span of 2 months.


Where are the underbidders?


Must be the new crypto. I dont.buy it for a second, and never did since the 06 run ups

And that is a big part of the problem, we're not able to see and know who those underbidders were. If we could find out and question them it would hopefully remove any doubts and skepticism. Maybe one day the government will go forward with a case and we'll finally get more info and answers.

When it comes to this "I'm not taking a loss" subject, you have little understanding of what often drives human behavior.

Grown adults often do exactly what you're mocking there (with something like their Pfizer stock). They absolutely DO think your exact foot-stopping quote of "I'm not gonna sell until a get a profit!", regardless of what the sensible allocation of their investments should be going forward. Has nothing to do with whether it's a "collector" or "investor"; it's the same principle for anyone involved with a speculative asset. The only time that many can stomach and justify taking the loss is (as brought up above) when it's to offset capital gains.

It's easy for someone to get married to their purchase price (human nature for a number of unflattering or poorly thought-out reasons.) And on the flip side, they also take profits for the wrong reasons. Because what you "made" isn't the key factor either, except for tax purposes. Once you own something, the purchase price is a sunk cost. All that matters is what the value is now, what could happen going forward, your risk tolerance at the current value for that asset, what portion it is of your overall portfolio, etc. But I digress.

Rationality isn't what dictates decisions sometimes. Especially when it comes to this.

Ya for sure. I agree 100%. A lot of people think this way. Especially with cards. But it's more of an emotional attachment. It's not rational or logical behavior. I didn't mean to imply that people don't act like this. I only intended to point out that there is also no shortage of people who don't. Of which I am one. I don't care one bit what I paid for something. I only make decisions based on what it's worth today. I also wanted to make the point that this mindset is more in line with an investor than a pure collector.

Why don't we just stipulate that Brent Mastro has been and is a cheater effer and move on? You do know that, correct?

I've read countless accusations against him and PWCC, so, in that sense, yes, I'm aware of the accusations being made. However, I've yet to encounter any actual evidence though, so I continue to reserve judgement. I'm not saying he's innocent. I just don't know.

Perhaps I should note that I don't consider the fact that trimmers have sold their cards through PWCC to be a stain on them. I don't think a consignment company should be held responsible for PSA's screw ups. PWCC is not a grading company. Those issues should be taken up with the TPGs. They're the ones that are supposed to be the experts. Not PWCC.

PWCC is not a grading company you say yet they offer their opinion on the grade of a card rountinely.

And I believe an association between pwcc and moser has been established showing they have worked together.

Brent knew he was selling altered cards but did not disclose, there is email proof of that among other evidence, and as I've explained countless times, that's fraud. Brent also likely submitted many of the cards in question himself. The relationship between Brent and Gary goes back perhaps 20 years if not longer, Brent was just a kid when he started selling Gary's stuff.

And that's why there's an FBI probe. That TPGs may also culpable is irrelevant. Anyone coming to this fresh can find the old posts explaining the mail and wire fraud statutes and their applicability to the scandal. Sorry but I don't have the patience to keep doing it every time some skeptical newbie pops up.

thx pete...and here's a card.

Boy, is that ever true. How many times has a seller refused a reasonable offer based on "what I have into it?"

In the next couple of years I suspect we are going to see a ton of irrational "hold till it makes money" collectors. We don't have to reach back too far for that. Look at what happened after 2008-2009.

I had one amusing experience I can relate that's apropos of the subject. I paid a really 'frothy' price for a card in a 2008 auction. Several years later another collector and me were trying to work out a deal for my card but I just could not stomach the financial loss of an outright sale. Eventually, we decided to trade overpriced cards instead, because he'd bought a bunch of stuff in the same auction season that was totally upside down on too. I got a handful of cards from a set I liked more than the one I had and he got my albatross in return. We made the trade at the National and we were just laughing at the absurdity of what we spent versus what they were worth at that point. The cards I obtained will probably never be worth what they were worth when he bought them but they are in my PC until I stop collecting, so I don't really care.

Oh no, it's a whole new batch of collectors! They made so much in bitcoin and Tesla they NEED losses! Also, All the other collectors know the market and wont bid at the top, they wait a few months, even the plethora of underbidder. They somehow can time the market!

Twenty-plus years? Homie, you never told me that! That's messed up! :eek::eek::eek:

LOL! BOOM! It's over!!!

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/MealyDista...er-max-1mb.gif

LOL Ranch. Yeah, as Gary told a friend of mine, I have this kid who sells for me on ebay now. It was probably still the 1990s or maybe the early 2000s. Brent's original ID was huigensr or something like that. I don't remember when he became prewarcardcollector.

Amazing how strong the force is. And no matter how many things go well, it can be so tough to even do it with just one or two bad apples.

In the face of so many cards that have gone up post-pandemic, there's one that I bought for a set last year that was a very mediocre price (but I never expected to move it and it's a tough card, so I went ahead).

Then I got an unexpected upgrade. Now, with no use for the first one, I am stuck with the fact that (after transactions costs going every which way), I may easily have to eat 10-15% selling it. No big deal at all.

But after all my being used to the "right" thing to do here, and all my preaching about it over the years, I still have such a tough time accepting a sensible offer (and haven't done so yet) :o

2 cents
 

ebay should figure out each shilled transaction and refund to buyer

ebay should ban them for as long as they were found to have been shilling

ebay should notify every buyer know to have a shilled transaction and give them the data so they can go to pwcc.

PWCC should figure how to be a decent company

What is PWCC response? Legal talk I am sure. Slimy lawyer talk!

I stopped buying pwcc 2 years ago and told anyone i knew bought cards.

there are other sellers that shill but its nice to cut one nut off the beast hope ebay cuts two to set a tone in the card world

No need to speculate about PWCC's response.

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/faq#pwcc-ebay-update

Reproduced in part.

PWCC Marketplace/eBay Update

PWCC Marketplace/eBay Update
PWCC no longer uses eBay to sell items. PWCC will continue to host its Premier Auction on the PWCC platform. The August Premier Auction will close on August 21 as scheduled. The September Premier Auction will start as scheduled on September 1. The September Premier Auction will start as scheduled on September 1. To read our official statement, please click here.

How can you assure me that shill bidding is not taking place in the current and future Premier Auctions?
As part of our Marketplace Tenets, PWCC and our staff and affiliates have no visibility into any bidders' maximum bid. This information is stored in a third-party service and no one from PWCC or any affiliates of the sellers can view it, by specific design.

All bidders must be approved to participate in the Premier Auction. To apply, submit a brief application. Our team will review your application, contact you within 24 hours we need additional information, and notify you of your approval. This process can take several days, so please submit your application early.

What happens when somebody is caught placing a bid they do not intend to honor, known as shill bidding?
Our Marketplace Trust team is extremely proactive in monitoring bidding. We have placed permanent blocks on any bidder who does not pay. Refer to the Marketplace Tenets for more details on our monitoring procedures.

What will happen to my cards once the are pulled from eBay? WilI I get a notification that they have indeed been removed?
All Fixed Price and Flash Auction listings that did not sell and were removed from eBay will automatically be placed back into your Vault. All unsold items in our August Monthly Auction and submissions received for future auctions will be slated for sale in our new Monthly Auction, hosted on the PWCC website, which will launch in October. The new Fixed Price Marketplace will launch on the PWCC website on September 1, 2021, and the new Flash Auction Marketplace will be available soon.

What is PWCC's stance on shill bidding, and did PWCC participate in shill bidding on eBay's platform?
Shill bidding is a bid placed without the intention to honor it--regardless of who placed the bid. As outlined in our Marketplace Tenets, PWCC has clear rules that no one may place a bid unless that bid is intended to win the item--not consignors, friends of consignors, people who own other versions of the card, etc. PWCC has never engaged in nor condoned the practice of shill bidding or manipulating the card market. PWCC is proud of our work to ensure a trusted marketplace and unequivocally denies eBay's claims regarding shill bidding.

PWCC prides itself on creating a culture of integrity and trust. We understand its importance to our company, the industry, and collectors. For more than 20 years, PWCC has built its reputation with buyers and sellers—always putting the company’s values first. There are no circumstances under which PWCC would approve violating auction site policies.

Can I trust PWCC as a business moving forward?
Yes. We care deeply about this industry and we would never do anything to jeopardize its integrity. Many of our team members are lifelong collectors, too. We know trust is built over time and through a consistent experience. We hope that we have earned that trust from you and that we will continue to do so with our new platform. We are deeply committed to ensuring the bidding environment you deserve.

How will the split between PWCC and eBay affect the industry?
PWCC cannot predict short-term volatility that may arise from the PWCC and eBay separation; however, PWCC remains bullish on the future of the industry and looks forward to continuing its role as a leading marketplace for hobbyists and investors. To that end, PWCC had been building out its capacity to serve as a one-stop hub for customers. Hopefully, new initiatives like the PWCC Vault show our commitment to supporting the industry’s growth, integrity, safety, and success.

Will PWCC’s separation from eBay impact the safety of my items?
No. PWCC consists of three separate legal entities: the PWCC Marketplace, Capital, and Vault. There are no legal circumstances under which your items are at risk while using these services unless you have a personal legal matter that involves your property. Any legal matters that may arise between PWCC’s Marketplace entity and eBay do not impact the safety of your items. Your items always belong to you.

Can I still sell my cards with PWCC?
Since March 2021, our team of developers has focused on building and improving the Premier Auction experience which is currently live and has always been independent of eBay.

Sales through pwccmarketplace.com will be the foundation for the future Monthly Auction, Flash Auction, and Fixed Price Marketplace. The initial design of these marketplaces is in place, and we are committed to make them the most user-friendly, cost-competitive, and trusted tools in the industry. Although this platform shift happened sooner than planned, we are excited to launch the new Fixed Price Marketplace on our website on September 1, 2021 and our new Monthly Auction Marketplace this October.

What do I need to know about PWCC’s marketplace platform moving forward?
PWCC currently hosts its Premier Auction on the PWCC website. PWCC is widely considered the leading auction site for cards and memorabilia. Our customers appreciate PWCC’s presentation transparency, detailed item descriptions, advertising and promotions, and professional service. We expect the Premier Auctions’ success to translate to the Monthly and Flash Auctions, and Fixed Price listings on our platform. We also expect to retain the trust of buyers and sellers in the years ahead.

What can I expect from PWCC in terms of future plans and operations?
We are excited to roll out our proprietary Marketplaces specifically designed to meet the unique needs of this market and continue to offer excellent services to our clients.

In the meantime, PWCC conducts the Premier Auction each month for cards with a market value over $25,000, and we can always look to help you find a buyer privately. Please contact our Customer Service team, if interested.

Ebay builds a better mousetrap


Pwcc builds a better mouse

They put an eye-appeal sticker on cards that are well-centered. That doesn't make them a grading company and it certainly doesn't make them responsible for validating real grading companies' opinions regarding cards.


Because they sold a card to someone whose masked eBay user ID is "m***1", which happens to be the same as one of the 100+ unique masked user IDs that his "Whitman111" account receives when making purchases? Do you have any idea how many buyers there are on eBay with the same masked ID? There are thousands. Literally thousands. And Moser's masked eBay ID changes every time. I've proved this multiple times.

But that aside, let's just assume they have done business together. I absolutely believe they probably have. So what? They're a consignment company. People consign cards to them. Are they really responsible for playing detectives to try to determine which of their users might be guilty of "crimes" that law enforcement doesn't even care to pursue? How is this their responsibility whatsoever? People alter cards. Thousands of people. Those cards sneak past grading all the time. And what if they falsely accuse someone because some internet troll "detectives" think a masked eBay user ID actually means something? Then what?

LOL. Good luck with that. eBay can't even figure out how to increase the maximum number of blocked bidders above 5,000. They can't even take down an active listing that is currently being shilled despite multiple people reporting that auction for shill bidding. These guys are as incompetent as they come.

Blowout determined that an extremely high amount of stickers were on cards originally bought from pwcc, altered and regraded, and auctioned with pwcc a second time around.


Cards that were "prime" for alterations were bid up so high any other buyers would be scared off. These same cards, were altered, then returned to pwcc, auctioned for a second time with a HE sticker.

This was methodically, repeatedly and systematically done.

I'd wager youd only need to prove this a handful of times during discovery in a court of law to....get a result


Arent you tired of trying yet? Brent couldn't pay me enough to stick up for him. I do have morals though

Ah yes, "Blowout has determined..." Well I guess that's a closed case then isn't it? Lol.

Again, I'll wait for actual detectives to bring charges before I cast judgement.

Glad to see that 'RepublicanInMass' has "morals" though. :rolleyes:

Although there are a lot of anonymous A holes on Blowout, the Boda team has done a very good job and a big service to our hobby. If anyone denies that they are ignorant or stupid, pick one.

.

Ot Troll, this is valid name!

Fixed it for you.

To be clear, BODA has confirmed what many of us already knew, and has perhaps shown the scope was even greater than we thought, but the alterations and the involvement of certain people is far from new.

Yes, I agree. They have uncovered an immense sea of altered cards and have proven that one way or another, these cards often make it into graded slabs. They've successfully informed us all that there are potential landmines in our playing field and to watch out. For that, I am grateful.

The issue I have are the conclusions drawn from there about who is guilty of what. So many of their accusations are built on false assumptions about the data they're looking at. Then they build on those invalid conclusions to make even more accusations. It's extremely irresponsible.

I totally disagree with this. Also, different auctioneers have different bidding rules and formats and call for different strategies. I bid multiple times on cards I really want and am really serious about all the time. In most auctions, I am worried about shill bidding and other shenanigans so I don't like to place my max bid until late.

In other instances or auctions formats, it behoves the bidder to put in a floor bid that is significantly higher than the next required step up in bidding to rule out a lot of non-serious buyers from being involved in the "extended bidding" period or whatever the auction house calls it.

The proposal you are talking about requires a lock-tight system where everyone is on the up and up - all other bidders, the auction house - everyone. That's not what we are faced with at all.

Lol. Yes. They probably do that daily, I would imagine.


I agree. They've definitely blown the lid on how widespread this issue is.

I’ve bid 10 or more times in plenty of auctions and on ebay. Why? Could be anything from I was bored, to I didn’t want to pay $2 more than the guy below me, to I wanted to see if the top bidder set an aggressive high bid, to I had too much wine to drink and it was 2 am and it was pointless fun. Can’t always tell why anyone is doing anything.

I wise man said to me a long time ago forget about deciphering someone else’s motivations. You are almost always just guessing based on your preexisting biases.

Nobodys shilling buy it nows


Just saying

There's no shortage of fake buy-it-now sales on ebay.

Call me out
 

eBay could consider calling out known shill bidders.
If shiller bids it shows *bidder has history of shill bidding.
Any new accounts they create tag would follow.
A fair buyer beware alert from eBay.

Shill bidders and pwcc should face long term suspension from eBay. Criminals only stop behavior when it is no longer tolerated. They rarely change behavior on their own.

Shill bidding is not okay. There is my disclaimer.

I know this is unpopular to say, but when I see an item on ebay, I decide what I will pay for it, and that is my limit. Whether I'm bidding against someone who, in their heart, wants to win it, or someone who doesn't, really makes not much difference. Of course I don't want a shiller bidding me up, but I'm not going to let him push me past my self imposed limit.

Now, if someone shilled me up to my max, placing a bid above mine, then cancelling that bid, then I would complain to ebay and not pay for the item on principle. That is something different than shill bidding.

I haven't seen anyone discuss the risk to the shill bidder. Don't some of these guys win stuff frequently enough to make it too risky for them? I mean, I hope that happens because it might tend to discourage the practice.

Making shillers pay for what they win is important and preventative. In fact, in a sense that makes them real bidders. Alas, not all auctioneers make them pay.

+1 Great comment. If shill bidders had to pay for items they win (plus BP of course) then that would make them actual bidders. So maybe the real problem is frequent non-paying winners, plus people who retract their bids often.

The most insidious shill bidders are the ones within or associated with AHs, who either know what other peoples' max bids are, or who have an arrangement with the AH, like the Mastro case. Because in those cases, the shills aren't running the risk of winning and paying; they are therefore not actual bidders.

agree as well i have said this for years. Just make people pay if they want to keep their cards, you are welcome too, just pay the bid you won and BP..no harm no foul...

Breaking news, maybe, I think, I found a PWCC auction, now freed from Mother Ebay, on Auction Report. If this is their much ballyhooed rollout of their independent platform, it is pathetic. Old holdouts from the vault and not much else. The other AH's must be laughing.

I wont even be signing up for the platform, better deals for you guys

I think you're on the wrong page? The one I'm seeing looks pretty epic. Over 42,000 cards listed in the auction in total. Everything starting out at $10. ~200 Mickey Mantles, ~1200 Michael Jordan, ~50 Babe Ruth, ~550 Lebron James, ~20 Ty Cobb, ~100 Willie Mays, ... There are a ton of great cards in this auction.

I think they’re going have Blowout reported sales on their auction.

Funny, gone are the days of not having more than one of each card per auction. Must be infinite demand

Some days you wonder, don't you, who is consigning all these cards, and who is buying them?

Should keep the BODA crew busy for the foreseeable future at least. I wonder if they're hiring?

People see the patterns they want to see or have already decided is the case. Whether it's politics, sports, covid, collecting, or anything else. Tell me what the facts and and I will tell you how they support my pre-existing thesis. And if they don't I will tell you which facts are wrong or who must be lying. Under no circumstances will I vary from my position. Because I am infallible and never wrong.

You too? I thought I was the only one!

+1. There is an entire psychology of and strategy to bidding in an auction and a lot of it is dependent on the rule structure of the auction. An auction with a fixed close time, no BP, and a very minimal increase for each bid (eBay) calls for an entirely different approach than one with prior bidding on an item to qualify for overtime, bid increments measured as a percentage of the last bid, and 20% BP, or one with fixed bid increments, a 'jungle' OT rule that lets you bid on anything, and a BP.

I find it fascinating from a game theory perspective. I enjoy the mathematical nature of game theory and solving for optimal strategies from a business perspective.

As a buyer on eBay, I will often place snipe bids on an item that far exceeds their market value just to ensure I win that item (although I'm selective about which auctions I employ this strategy on). Obviously, it comes with risk since if others utilize the same strategy, it can be costly. There are a few times where I've had to overpay for an item, but surprisingly, it's an extremely rare occurrence (probably somewhere between 1-3% of the time). There are also a few times where my bid has cost someone else with the same strategy a lot of money. It also leaves me open to getting shilled, but as you may have noticed from some of my other posts, I believe this is nearly a non-factor, but that's a topic for a different thread.

From the auction house's perspective though, I think the extended bidding framework yields higher closing prices than the snipe-heavy environment that eBay unintentionally created. Nowadays, eBay is effectively a silent auction site with the vast majority of sports card auctions being won by hidden snipe bids within the final few seconds of an auction.

I also think the buyer's premium aspect is an interesting game theory problem. I think initially, buyer's premiums were introduced as the fee that an auction house would charge for selling an item, but in addition, it has since evolved into an illusion aimed at getting people to bid higher because they prey on people's inability to do math. This is evidenced by the fact that some auction houses will charge a 20% buyer's premium but then turn around and give half of that fee back to the consigner. So it's not just a fee for the auction house, it's a way to trick buyers into bidding higher than they otherwise would have.

Another intersting game theory problem is that of bidding increment options for the buyer. Some auction houses will allow you to bid in $100 or $250 increments when the current bid is $6,000, whereas the next minimum bid at another auction site is in $1000 increments, forcing you to bid $7,000. This is a double edged sword though, because while you may push the item price higher with larger bid increments, it also comes with the consequence of creating a smaller pool of total bidders who can participate in the extended bidding period because an item might get close to it's full market value after just a handful of bids are placed, causing would-be participants to bow out of the auction before it enters extended bidding. I actually use this strategically to my advantage in the early stages of an auciton if it's an item that I really want. Bidders will often just place one bid on an item in the early stages as a way to sort of bookmark them for the extended bidding period, and not place another bid until the "real" auction begins. But this strategy allows room for more extended bidding participants. Whereas if two people "go at it", bidding each other up back and forth in the early stages, until the item is near its full market value, then it discourages other people from participating in extended bidding. Thus, once the extended bidding session begins, I might only be competing against one or two other bidders instead of 10 or 15.

I'm a game theory nerd, so I could go on about this stuff for hours, but I think this post is long enough already lol.

Travis, many thanks. Must have somehow arrived on their vault release page. Don't ask me how. Could you kindly send me a link so I can at least have a look at these goodies and pricing so far. Thanks, John

Confirmation bias is everywhere. And don't forget medicine.

The weakness of game theory alone (I was a big game theory guy in college in poli sci) is that it assumes a rational and calculating player who will act logically and in his own best interests. People, however, have psychological tendencies and prejudices that are irrational and do not factor into a logical game theory, like a tendency to prefer round numbers (why is 3000 hits so acclaimed versus 2900 hits? because people like round numbers), make groups of non-related items, or lack of ability to solve a multiple-variable equation. Even calculating a percentage increase with a corresponding BP increase (which is really just a multiple-step multiplication problem) puts half the population into the fetal position. i think the more complex bidding rules can even cause the more math-challenged to bid higher because they can't really solve the problem of what they are going to pay.

i don't think some of the AHs do a good job of understanding their bidders' psychology. For example, if a certain % of your customers have to stay in budget, it means that they may be knocked out of some items in OT by deep pocketed players. If every auction has a 'jungle' OT where anyone who has bid on anything can bid on everything, then everyone who has to watch a budget can reallocate their resources to secondary or tertiary items, especially items that close with no bids. I am always stunned that items with no bids close at the end of regular time. Why not leave them up so people who lose on a bunch of other stuff can bid on them rather than passing the lot?

Trust me as one of the younger auction houses around we considered EVERYTHING. Ultimately we decided that the long game was to keep buyers happy, and that in turn would make consignors happy. Buyers did not like being up until 4am or later on the east coast. Also if you start all your items at low prices instead of 50% of retail, and don't have any reserves, you'll have a lot less no sales. I know we run under 1% Of course we're a pimple on the ass of the hobby compared to the big houses, but we ARE growing fairly quickly and like I said, we're in it for the long haul.

Does anyone else find this to be stunningly excessive for one auction? There are many copies of a large number of high profile cards, almost impossible not to be with 42,000+ cards up for auction at one time. This looks more like an inventory liquidation to me than a monthly auction.

EDIT to add that I was referring to the 42,000 cards total. The pre-war selection is a tiny fraction of that and doesn't appear to be much more than what we've seen from plenty of other AHs, if even that.

They'll find buyers for them all and set more records.


Not long ago auctions would refuse more than one copy of a card. I wouldn't want a competing copy of my consignment.

It doesn't strike me as being that much of an outlier when you compare it to their standard monthly ebay auction volume. I think they did something like 35,000 cards in their final month on eBay. And it's been a couple months since they were booted off the platform, so they likely had a backlog of sales stacking up. If you combine their expected eBay volume for the past 2 months, assuming they were still there, that's probably ~70,000 cards. It seems realistic to me that they could have lost ~28,000 of those ~70,000 sales because of the ebay fallout, owning them with 42,000 cards to sell. I'd be surprised though if they have more than 42,000 next month though. I'd guess it will be closer to 30,000 next month. Although surely it'll depend on how well they do in this one.

That and whether the postal inspectors and FBI show up to padlock the doors.

PWCC certainly isn't alone in dong this.

Mark, I do the exact same thing on eBay. I was informed earlier in this thread that I was an enabler. It was funny then, and still is.

I set my max and I either win it or I don’t. Either way, this method works for me. And I do not care who does what from a bidding perspective. I win it or I don’t… and the caravan moves on.

Following up on the number of listings in PWCC's monthly auctions. It looks like they have 23,717 cards listed this month for their November auction. They had about 42,000 in October, which included some amount of backlog after being offline for a couple months. It'll be interesting to see how things trend from here. I think watching the number of cards they get going forward over the next 6 months will be critical to their success or failure as an independent platform. Can they still realize strong prices on their own? They certainly did with some cards, but there were also plenty of bargains to be had as well. Although despite the conspiracy theories, the same was actually true for them on eBay. I've been building a sales history database for vintage basketball cards and you'd be surprised how many of the outlier sales, on the low end, came from PWCC listings.

It's possible that this current month still has some amount of backlog in it. Also, I'm not sure how much seasonal effect there is in the expected monthly volume (what does a "normal" November or December look like for them historically?). I would anticipate their expected volume going forward to continue to be in the low 20,000s though each month. It might dip into the high teens if some of this ~24,000 still has some backlog in it though. But if we see it dip below 15,000, then that will be indicative of PWCC struggling on their new platform, and if we see it back up above 30,000, then that will be a sign that the hobby is latching on to them as a viable alternative to eBay and other consignment options. As a data geek, those are the two magic numbers I'd be watching out for (15,000 and 30,000 listings per month).

Grabbing my popcorn...

A closer look through some of the listings for this month leads me to believe that PWCC is likely seeing some significant withdrawal from their usual consignment base. The offerings for Mickey Mantle, Jackie Robinson, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, and other big-name stars are fairly lackluster this month. It appears as though much of the good stuff may have begun to migrate elsewhere.

Oh, and for your enjoyment. I found this fun little description for a Goudey Ruth...

And I wonder if some of the most recent offerings perhaps came from a backlog of pre-ebay split consignments that just hadn't been listed yet?

WOW so as Robert wrote from our World Series NFT Thread

I'm saving my money for some Nike nft's. I want to be wearing a nice pair of Jordans as I jog thru the metaverse

Now as he Jogs thru the Metaverse he can Imagine seeing it in your PWCC Vault every day

Lol.

What do you guys think the over/under should be for how long it takes PWCC to mint their first batch of NFTs? I bet Brent is researching how to do it right now.