Hijack Post - ERAs and eras
Not going to mention Kershaw in this post. Promise.;)
And pardon me for probably preaching to the choir. Premise: Deadball pitchers were really good, or were they? With all the talk about pitcher's ERAs as a measure of greatness, consider first in 1905 when 4.1 runs were scored per team/game in the National League and in 1905 NL teams made average of 294 errors/team for the season,and in 1905 about 29% of runs scored were unearned, and so in 1905 the league average ERA was 2.99 in 1955 when 4.5 runs were scored per team/game in the National League and in 1955 NL teams made average of 142 errors/team for the season, and in 1955 about 11% of runs scored were unearned, and so in 1955 the league average ERA was 4.04 in 2015 when 4.2 runs were scored per team/game in the National League and in 2015 NL teams made average of 95 errors/team for the season, and in 2015 less than 8% of runs scored were unearned, and so in 2015 the league average ERA was 3.90 The NL and the years chosen were done so randomly, but seem representative of the eras they represent. Have the advances in equipment, primarily gloves, made pitchers worse due to their higher ERAs in the modern game? NO Why then hasn't run production decreased parallel to the improvement in fielding? Is a deadball pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 equivalent to a modern pitcher with an ERA of 3.00? NO ERA as a stat is limited. One error early in an inning can lead to 7 or 8 unearned runs largely due to the ineffectiveness of the pitcher rather than the single error in many cases. Using the stat to compare pitchers from different eras ain't going to work either. Using the stat to compare a pitcher to his contemporary peers makes a little more sense, but still has its limits. WaJo was one of the greats in his era, but who knows what his ERA would be in 2015???? I'm sure this post opens the door to a discussion of WHIPs, BLIPs and FLIPs, but I'm old-fashioned and not going there.:D |
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He has been up and down in the playoffs, but it's such a small sample size as to be pretty much pointless as a gauge. The people who claim he "chokes" are idiots and the people who try to pretend he's been amazing are also idiots. |
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I wish fangraphs did FIP for the playoffs, but I can't seem to find it, it would be a better thing to look at to judge Kershaw. (even tho the SSS issue still would be present) |
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The regular season is the regular season, while the playoffs are a totally different animal, requiring a different set of tactics for the short series. It takes something well beyond pure numbers to take the ball and dominate in an elimination game. Conversely if a lights out, regular season staff ace gets blasted, goes 0-2, loses an elimination game, I'd guess the argument that "it wasn't a large enough sample size" doesn't carry much weight in his clubhouse. |
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What I'm saying is, "clutch" isn't a skill. (and this is a fact by the way, not my opinion) Plus, your point that the playoffs are different is correct. It's results are LESS reliable and predictive because of the nature of their small sample size and fractured nature (only 3 series played a year if you are good enough to make it every year) In modern day postseason where 10 teams make it yet only play 3 series (plus that dumb one game play in ) the playoffs are very much a crapshoot. In fact, it's so different from the regular season as to be nearly a pointless waste of time other than making TV revenue. |
Sorry, but I still love BOTH the regular season AND the post-season.
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Now that I've just figured out how to use the Ignore List... what a series!!!
Humans playing baseball. Some rise to the occasion (clutch), while others seem to feel the pressure (choke). It's fantastic! Imperfectly, and humanly fantastic. |
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I bet you think evolution is a govt conspiracy too eh? :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes: |
That small sample size thing is killing Clayton!! :D But he will do better when they stop playing live games and start doing APBA simulations. Then he can regress to the mean, or whatever that statistical term is.
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People can get nervous! People can choke!! Others don't, and they score all the chicks. |
The clutch hitting seen tonight is just unreal. I can't remember anything like... since game 2 that is.
And Barnes has some huge ballz stretching that single into a double. |
Game 5 was the best World Series game I have ever seen. I didn't care much who wins this series until I watched this game tonight. Now I have to pull for Houston. That team just would not quit. Actually both teams. It was like two boxers trading punches and the last one standing wins. WOW.
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Simply amazing game tonight.
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crazy unique game. Jenson really hurting the legacy.
Not sure why not keep kershaw in with 90 pitches against altuve...might as well go down with him than maeda....2 more inherited runners scored on keshaw with 2 outs no less. Really hard to win playoff games....thats why the dodgers winning 7 out of the last 8 kershaw playoff starts so amazing...even this one he exited with a 3 run lead.. Dodgers somehow need to get past verlander....but even if get to game 7..id rather start Wood than Yu.. |
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kershaw didnt lose the game..when up 3 when he exited with 2 outs as well....what he have 1 Loss in his last 10 playoff starts? thats far from a choker..and agaisnt number 1 starters to boot....now Kenley is another matter... |
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I know Bumgarner's post season stats get talked about more than enough, but when talking about what might be good for Kershaw, I have to point out the lines from Bum's WS appearances. 2010- 8 innings, 0 ER- Win (road) 2012- 7 innings, 0 ER- Win (road) 2014- 7 innings, 1 ER- Win (road) 9 innings 0 ER- Shutout Win 5 innings, 0 ER- saves game 7 (road) For good measure, throw in his 2x complete game shutouts in elimination wild card games, and you've got a true postseason ace. When you have to make qualification after qualification about someone/something, it's probably just not that great. |
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To Leon's comment about announcers, I agree that stuff gets overstated a lot, however watch an MLB BP, and you'll see many/most guys work through a progression in their first couple rounds--- bunt toward 1st, bunt toward 3rd, groundballs to right, groundballs to left, then hit away. I doubt there's a whole lot of this directional hitting in game situations, and guys like Stanton have never been asked to bunt, or hit a groundball to 2nd. However I do think a lot of the low K rate, good bat control guys regularly try to execute this stuff on hit and runs, against the shift, butcher play, etc. |
Anyone else think Corey Seager looks like Roger Maris?
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Wait till next year |
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Andrew Toles would of made a huge difference if he didnt tear his ACL..
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yet again, further evidence the narrative has changed on Kershaw not being a a good playoff pitcher...its been 3 or so straight years now where he has been good to great......whip will be 1.08 around and era will be in the 3's when this year is over. guy has won 8 postseason games now..plus had the lead in several others in which the bullpen blew or left in a tie situation........ the narrative of him not being a good playoff pitcher has changed.... He is 6-1 with a save right now since 2016.... ....... need to talk david price if want to talk playoff issues....the ship has sailed on kershaw |
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...the ship has sailed on kershaw
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So he gave up a 407 foot home run to the Brewer's relief pitcher...doesn't everybody?
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Heck even the run he allowed today probably not scored if they take the out on the pitcher instead of letting the ball go foul.. The narrative has changed on the playoff performance of kershaw... |
He came up huge today.
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General observation
So far it seems like LA and MIL can pitch and that BOS and HOU can hit.
What this means for the Series Is speculation, but we will find out. |
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So whichever league has the home field advantage in the WS wins. I did not know that. I wonder if the bookies in Vegas know that. Readers of this thread are sure to place their bets accordingly and win.:rolleyes: |
Read an article today entitled The Kershawsheck Redemption :)
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Pretty surprising that Houston got swept at home. Despite the bad call on the Altuve homer, Boston was simply the better team.
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