Looks like I need a different hobby. :(

It is such a conundrum. I know I could sell right now and likely quadruple my money on what I have in my collection. Yet even that amount would not be life changing (i.e. pay off mortgage or retire) and so I think I would regret it. I sure would miss them and the room I have them displayed in would be a lonely and depressing place.

This may be easy for me to say as I am not in that situation, but if my collection were worth life changing money I believe I would sell at this time.

Preach on! I am living that as well. At the moment, I am thinking about the Killebrew rookie, and I'm not looking for better than VG to VGEX.

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And if you remember 2015/16 was a peak as well, mainly for HOF rookies but you saw carry over to later issues as well.

Scott I'm gathering prices fell after 2016? I wasn't back in the hobby yet.

Some of the really hot cards if I remember correctly were Rose, Koufax, Clemente rookies, and it had an effect on many others.

I feel like prices softened, especially on Roses, but they never returned to pre-summer 2016 levels... and from maybe 2017 on continually climbed upward, beyond those 2016 peak levels, even pre-2020-21 booms.

I would actually maintain you saw an abrupt return to fall 2015 levels in late summer/fall 2016. Things like PSA 8 Clemente rookie going for over 200k and then dropping back down to 40-50k etc.

what happened then...was a bit different than whats happening now...that's for sure!!!!

I am a bit concerned that the sale of PSA/Goldin to many of the same players has the potential for major damage to the hobby!

Me too Pete....

Scott that $200,000 Sale on the Clemente RC was Total BS just like PWCC last week with its $180,000 PSA 10 Henderson Not Real Value In my book neither.

To me that was the start, the Henderson rookie and the 52 Bowman Sgc 7 Mickey that sold for over $40k pwcc....now the push.

I share your concern. An unregulated market where you can control perception of value and the outlet to realize that value seems worrying.

Agreed. This is what happens in an unregulated market. At best, it’s a horrible optic. At worst...woah Nellie, look out.

We are not in disagreement about 2016 or now.

The average price for a '57 Aaron in a PSA 6 right now on their Auction Prices Realized site is $800. :eek:

I could not agree more and this should be the thing that most concerns us all. In a regulated market, the same people owning a grading company and an auction house would never be allowed to happen. As perfectly said: at best, terrible optics and the parties should know better— but they know there’s zero regulation so what do they care, they can print money now. And because some of them like cards we’re supposed to shut off our minds and look away.

Looks like one of the celebrity PSA owners who is also a Goldin owner was bidding PSA cards to the moon at Goldin, then brandishing them on social media. At best, not sensitive to the perception of impropriety.

It also bums me out that this could further the demise of set building. It seems like the direction pretty much every set is headed is flat commons and HOFers off to the races. The days of entry level vintage sets (even low grade) that can be built on a modest budget seem to be behind us.

I'm (eventually) going to try and build a 52 topps set. At this rate I should be done in about 60 years give or take

True that


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Digging back old post. price has came down from the peak, who is buying this dip?

ive never stopped buying...been buying more than ever last 2 years or so. So Im buying the dip!

If you are looking at the very best cards for their grade prices have not come down...in my experiences. Average or lower end, maybe.
.

What percentage of collectors paying $$crazy$$ for cards today were doing this 4 years ago?

IMO, it’s shill bidding on EBay. A seller bids his item up higher than it would’ve gone for, then the next guy sells same card and says that a comp value/worth. In some cases I think the seller who does the shill bidding wins his own card under a different username. Sometimes I see the same card come up for sale that within a week and sometimes it’s same seller or the supposed buyer who just won it.

I think there will be a nice correction soon. Let’s get back to pre Feb 2021 vintage numbers and I’ll be happy.

I'm buying.

You think shill bidding on ebay is what is responsible for the market growth since last December? As in you actually believe that it's the primary factor driving prices across the entire market?

I am a Ruth and Jackson guy.

I do not see any dips.

Plus the cards from the 20’s for Ruth that used to be fairly priced or under valued are escalating in prices and keeps going up auction after auction.

I think it would take a full blown collapse of the economy for Ruth prices to fall. Ruth cards from his playing days and the 52 Mantle seem pretty impervious to most of the market swings we've seen over the past couple years.

In March a PSA 4 52T Mantle sold for $148,000. The market right now is about half of that. That card has gone down from its peak just like every other one has.

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An SGC 4 just sold for 100k at Heritage. There's lots of different data points out there and these days different cards in the same grade, and in different grading companies, can sell for very wildly different amounts based on the card. So it makes it very hard if not impossible to generalize about the market. I keep hoping for card prices to come down across the board, yet it seems prices just keep escalating overall for the best stuff.

Yeah these clowns have some ridiculous theories. No ridiculous conspiracy they don’t run to the Max on. They get a colonel of truth and push it to absurd extremes. Bunch of bitter jerks screaming at the kids to get off their damn lawn.

Do not expect a collapse but very surprised the prices keep goin up

last night Love of the Game Auction a 1917 CM Babe Ruth PSA 1 went for $111K and

It was just a few months ago a SGC 2 sold for around $120k I do not recall which auction house

On the cards I was watching, LOTG prices crushed it last night (that CM Ruth was very pretty for grade). And prices in Heritage the auction before were silly high. Prices on big boy cards, especially old and rarer (as opposed to 1950+ cards that are as common as the last name Smith), just seem to go up and up.

I don't really follow the market for Ruth cards so I looked up this 17CM Ruth on the PSA auction site. It is obviously a rare card so not many sales. I see a PSA 2 sold in 2018 for $66,000 so the price has basically doubled in the last 3 years.

Does that sound right for Ruth cards? I don't want to read too much into a few sales of a very limited card but it doesn't seem like this one got much of a runup.

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I was in on the CM Ruth at the 80k level, but did not feel comfortable when it got higher. Seems like a big jump based on the most recent data comps available, and to me it's not like Babe won an MVP or anything to make it spike that hard. Was a pretty "1" though and congrats to whoever now owns it.

I don't agree with calling some cards "big boy" cards— that sounds kinda douchey to be really blunt. One person's "big boy" card is to someone else a card they don't give a shit about. It's all personal choice what one collects.

I would agree with this. As someone who collects mainly 50's baseball cards,
I'd sell that Ruth in a heartbeat to buy the common stuff.

At the risk of being even more douchey, there are cards that are more expensive, or desired, than others - fact. I dont know what to call these cards, so I called them big boy because in my business-world, large/major deals are sometimes referred to as big boy deals. I am not talking about what someone collects- collect what you want. This thread is talking about the prices of cards in today's market. My point, which I think was obvious, regardless of what I call them, is that the Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, Jacksons, pre war blue-chip (another subjective term) HOFrs from blue chip or iconic pre war sets are going up, have gone up since April, and show no signs of stopping.

We might see what happens if three things occur at the same time: the Fed raising rates, a prolonged lockout, and a renewed pandemic. Not sure even Babe Ruth can beat that.

Correct thx robert

Yes Alan a PSA 2 sold for $66k several years ago and yet a 1 just sold for $111k. If you google the various types of Ruth cards you will see the price escalation. Even on the cards from 1921-1929 that used to be undervalued or under appreciated. But now with the other cards being priced out of most collectors hands these other Ruth cards are starting to really jump in their prices also.

Generally speaking with are seeing the Ruth’s, Jackson, and the likes cards going for up to 3 times the price from just a few years ago. And it does not look it will stop

407. Hit By Q-Pid’s Arrow
The newfound desire for cards with qualifiers in the current boom market, as they are now regularly selling for much larger sums than ever before.

I live around the margins of collecting, constantly picking up really nice (to me) cards that often have qualifiers attached. Man, have things changed. The price rocket of OC cards has travelled to another galaxy, and off-centered all-time greats have reached ridiculous highs, and the asking prices continue to surge. They used to be had cheaply...and those days are long gone. Yowza!!!!

Very good point and I love your of list of collectorisms

I'm not sure Collins-McCarthy is a good barometer of anything because desirable players are seldom offered. Cards like that move independently of 'market' forces; they are high on want lists.

As I mentioned in the 'down prices' thread, I track Exhibit cards (for obvious reasons) and the 1920s superstars are moving up in every auction, even in lower grades. HA sold a low grade 1925 Gehrig for $105,000, an unthinkable price a few years ago. Ruth is the king, as befits the GOAT. At this point any solo 1920s Exhibit, even a 1-2 quality card, is a $2,000+ item, more for a tough issue. I would guesstimate that a 1923 Ruth in roughest grade would sell for $5,000+. The real mover lately has been Cobb. He always lagged Ruth and Gehrig by a substantial margin but his cards are going into four figures now. Johnson cards have been stealthily gaining price to the point where you are looking at four figures for a mid-grade card. Next up I would think would be Speaker, Hornsby and Alexander. Those are in the $400-$600 range now in mid-grade. I'd probably stock up on lower grade but presentable examples of those (if you can find them); if things roll on they should be good for a 50%-100% pop. Eddie Collins cards are criminally low. I was sorely tempted to chase the 1925 last night but I chased the E254 instead; gotta love the Horner portraits on those cards.

An interesting story has been the RCs in the Exhibit sets, besides Gehrig. Grove's PC Back is commanding some serious respect now ($8400 in a 5 last night) as is Foxx's PC Back. I expect them to be at $10K in the next 2-5 years.

Another card that has moved up is the Exhibit Jackie Robinson. The principal issue there has been trying to ID which year it debuted. I know for sure it was in the 1950 run because I've seen the checklist card for that year. Not sure before that, but it is an early card. LOTG closed a lot of 2 at $720, raw. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit the level of the Paige card.

All assumptions are premised on the economy not crapping the bed...

A 3x increase over the last 3 years is probably average for a baseball card. For instance, Card Ladder's baseball index has gone from 4k to 14k in the last two years, which is 3.5x.

I would guess that pre war cards have had a steadier climb than post war and modern, and with so few sales transactions to look at you didn't really see a spike and dip the first half of the year. And it looks to me like all blue chippers are staying strong, from whatever era.





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Great info and tracking

Thanks for sharing

Thanks, Jeff. One thing I've observed in tracking these cards obsessively is what i now think of as a tsunami effect on these cards. Just like the sea pulling back before the tidal wave slams into you, if you run a regular and well-defined search for these cards on eBay you can see the supply of cards dry up just as prices surge. My searches for certain cards lately have been coming up with nothing in any price or format. Lots of commons but none of the big stars, not even 'museum' listings. That, plus the number of collectors who come around asking about buying my collection; when that happens I know there is a moving market out there.

Agree. If you are using that reference, is it not safe to assume that it's pointed at how valuable a card is? If I could afford some of those cards, the last thing I would be offended by is how other collectors refer to them.

I think the market overall has corrected on some cards / types of cards, but not everything has sunk back to former lows, of course. I have some midgrade postwar HOF slabs now that are still selling for 3x or more what I paid for them in say, 2016 or 2017.

qualifiers
 

I used to think that qualifiers dropped the value of a card about 2 full grades.
So, example, a PSA8 Miscut of a 1960 Mantle All-Star would be valued like a regular PSA6. Is that no longer the case?

"Douchey" is not how I'd describe your posts, Ryan. You appear to be very passionate about your collecting and appear to have the money to pursue it your way. Good on ya. As for what to call a deal that you feel is significant, yeah, that's a real conundrum. Whether you characterize a deal by cost or by the rarity of the cards involved, there is always going to be someone who will see it as bragging when you talk about it. People definitely do not like "big boy" or "advanced" or "elite" or any other label that characterizes a transaction by magnitude, but that's not something we are ever going to get past. Schadenfreude and envy are just part of the make-up of our species. Way I see it, you do your thing, I do mine, and we all let each other collect the way we want to and try to come together as a community...of nitwits who play with childrens' toys and drive our non-collecting mates crazy with our excessive, obsessive focus. My main reaction when I see cards breaking records and soaring into the fine art price level is that maybe, just maybe, my wife won't think I am quite as big an idiot for having a SDB full of old cardboard toys.