Houston didn't get your memo Jake, about the irrelevance or the third, fourth and fifth starters in the postseason. Morton and McCullers looked pretty good, eh?

Justin Verlander did it all 3 starts and came out of the bullpen in between to get another win. 4-0 1.46 ERA.

Clayton Kershaw is generally recognized as having one of, if not the best curveballs in the game. in an injury shortened season he gave up by FAR the most home runs of his career this year. Not sure if it's this simple.

and verlander has been the #1 pitcher in the playoffs and deserving of a 100 million dollar contract and being that good has got his team to the world series. How many others?

and Verlander has been the best #1 pitcher in the playoffs. Nothing is so basic obviously. But again the Astros were a huge favorite considering their regular season and adding verlander but i thought you said regular season means nothing. Plus the comment about #3-#6 starters meaning very little was due the 'whats the deal with the dodgers thread' and their late 'losing' streak which meant nothing to me.

Now the dodgers i believe are an underdog in the world series or at least not a clear favorite....we will see how they do in the final test....but just getting to the world series was big for them with the Cubs/Nationals also in NL.'

Plus its always harder being the guy with predictions then the guy that just says 'everything is random' or going with clear favorites.

Aah, so if your ace is Kershaw, #3, 4 & 5 don’t matter, but if your ace is Verlander, they do matter. ........ Got it.

Clarity is often the result of a retrospective analysis of the games “played”. The rear view mirror doesn’t predict where the car will end up. Enjoy the series. I’ll buy you a drink if either of your favorites wins.;)

Final thought: Isn’t it ironic that both cities, Los Angeles and Houston, have been the victims of their own “Hurricane Harveys” this year? :eek:

Two very good teams in the WS. Will be great baseball but the ratings will no doubt be off. Houston is largely unknown to most casual fans. Yankees had a good run. To all their fans saying we will set for years to come and will be back repeatedly I say say hello to the 2015 Mets. Nothing guaranteed. One of their sluggers goes down in May for the year and a few of their other guys under achieve and they will be struggling to make the playoffs.

So Verlander is better than Kershaw? How about Kluber with his postseason performance last year? Bumgarner? Ect. Postseason games are really the only ones that count. Regular season performance is worthless if you choke when a championship is on the line. The game is played to win championships for the team, not to accumulate regular seasons stats for the player.

Both sure picked a good time to have their best stuff. Proof of the maxim that good pitching beats good hitting, I guess.

the postseason is what is worthless. It means nothing because it has been diluted with too many teams and is pretty much a random crapshoot because of it.

The best teams win the most games over the long season, winning 3 series in a row hardly means a thing. playoff baseball is for suckers

Great run from the Yanks. Sad to see it end.

+1 Now I have to wait till next year to watch baseball.:(

Im glad they are out though cause i still think they were a greater threat to beat the dodgers than the astros are.

Kershaw's last 9 playoff starts have resulted in the Dodgers winning 8 of those games.

If the Dodgers were up 8 runs...maybe he gives up 4..who really cares.......he does what he has to do win.....if dodgers score 3...then he gives up 1..

he just won game 1 of the worlds series with tons of Ks......its looking really silly to talk about a 6.1 inning 4 run performance in a WIN now.

Time to stop.

And he got a W in that game easily even with the 4 homers......didnt need to do what he did in Game 1 of the World Series...another dodger victory... Dodgers have won 8 of his last 9 playoff starts.......i guess the 'blah blah blah' means something now..

He is a legend.

He pitched very well last night obviously and good for him. He did not pitch so well in the game he was taken deep 4 times. The logic of your claim that it's ok to give up 4 HR with a big lead is that it's not OK to give up 1 run in a scoreless game.

He also pitched well last year. There was one bad inning with the cardinals many years ago as you are aware.

and correct, i am ok with giving up 4 runs with a 7 run lead...its not like he was down 4-0...his team was up....better than walking people and preventing a big inning...i think they were all solo shots or close to it? His whip has been outstanding. Plus when you need a stud outing, he gives it.

His team has won 8 of his last 9 PLAYOFF starts....how is that not great. It cant be all dodgers offense. When your team wins that many games and you are closing on 90%, you have to figure he must know what he is doing. Stats arent everything, but even they are starting to get really good for him in terms of Whip and era is coming down. (era under 3 in this years playoffs thus far) You made a point it was 4.6 etc but 'short sample size, blah blah' just silly...

Your playoff era will never be like it is in the regular season because you dont get to pitch against 90 loss and more teams for a large chunk of your games.

Kershaw has also been pitching against many #1 or #1A starters in the playoffs yet his team is approaching a 90% winning percentage in their last 9 playoff games. The bad in the playoffs narrative is silly as well now. So if loses the next game his team only wins 80% of the last 10 Kershaw starts....yeah thats terrible

Really need to wait the playoffs out..to jump on him after his frst start n the playoffs that resulted in a 'win' no less, just strange....

Wins are rarely an indicator of how well a person pitches. Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young with only 13 wins. ERA will tell the story and his ERA is objectively bad.

Not getting team W's or individual 'W's i agree doesnt mean much if your stats are great. However if you ARE getting W's and team Ws, i think those W's matter more than just looking at stats. Your team is not going to win much when you are blasted in the first 3 innings and leave your start. In the event you get a lucky win or 2....it will be really hard to get 9 out of 10 team wins in your starts unless you are pitching winning baseball

Giving up 4 runs when your team is up 7 in the late innings is not much of a negative as the stats would say. Especially when you are winning 2-0 games as part of the streak etc.

Livan Hernandez won MVP of the world series with an above 5 era in the world series so era doesnt matter that much when you get Ws. You can have the best stats in the world, but if your team loses every one of your starts, you arent going to be MVP..... Era doesnt tell the whole story, plus Kershaw's era continues to go down and is under 3 in this years playoffs..

Kershaw's regular season MO has been to dominate rather than to pitch merely well enough to win. His post season history does not mirror that. So, something has certainly differed for him in the post season (last night excepted). Perhaps he had tired by season end, perhaps the competition was better and more focused, or perhaps the pressure of having to carry a team was too great? is the pressure greater trying to get to the World Series as opposed to playing in the World Series? Dunno... but, he'll likely get another opportunity or two to further define his post-season personna.

I just don't think that's true at all. In 2006 Randy Johnson went 17-11 for the Yankees, just two less wins than Johan Santana, who won Cy Young that year. But Randy had a 5.00 ERA. It didn't matter if the Yankees won his games. He was bad.

Let’s face it. The only thing that can keep Kershaw from walking on water is a drought.:eek:

Let’s face it. The only thing that can keep Kershaw from walking on water is a drought.:eek:

By Jake's illogic, a guy could pitch for a team that scored 10 runs a game, give up 9 a game himself and go 20-0 with a 9.00 ERA and he would be a phenomenal pitcher.

Kershaw is really darn good, not super great. He has helped the Dodgers to a heck of a year probably ending in World Series ring. Last night was a classic battle of Aces - Kershaw vs. Keuchel, fun to watch as Dodger fan. Side note - the hitters are standing soooo far back in batters box, makes it tough to sometimes determine ball/strike. Shouldn't the strike zone start at the front edge of home plate? There is quite a distance between front edge of home plate to all the way back where hitters are standing.

thats not my logic....when you see a guy give up 10 runs a game and his team win 9 out of 10 starts let me know. My argument is you have to pitch 'winning' baseball to have your team win 9 out of 10 starts. I will make a wild guess that if you give up 9 runs in 10 straight games in the PLAYOFFS, you arent going to win 9 out of 10 games.... Its also hard to give up 9 runs when you have 11ks in a game.

by your logic if a guy gives up 3 runs a game and his team loses all of his starts, he is great. You are going to need to win some games 3-1 as well to win 9 out of 10 games. Kershaw pitched a better game in the playoffs last year then he did yesterday. He has a bunch of great starts mixed in.

So basically if a guy wins 90 out of 100 games with your logic, that guy sucks if his era is 4+ Eventually the wins matter and the starting pitcher is only giving up non meaningful runs in the 'bad' games that he still winning....and on the few losses he is giving up the majority of the runs..

Lots of pitchers pitch great and find ways to lose.....Kershaw wins... 8 out of the last 9 playoff games his team has won.....not sure what you arguing about..

Whether a team wins is a function of two, independent things -- how well they hit and how well they pitch. A pitcher is judged by how well he pitches, not by how well his team happens to hit, or not hit, that day. I am not sure what YOU are arguing about. And to be clear if (let's just assume a complete game for a hypothetical) if Clayton wins 7-5 and another dude loses 3-2 then yeah the other dude pitched much better assuming no weird stuff like many unearned runs.

Thats a short sample size. If the dude loses 19 out of 20 games and has an era of 3.5 and Clayton's teams wins 19 out of 20 games and has an era of 4.00. There is more to just what your teams scores. Clayton has to be winning many low scoring games as well as some games with some better scoring. Clayton could of given up 3 runs in 7 innings yesterday which would of been better than his current playoff era and his team could of lost 4-3. The games he needs to hold the runs down he does obviously. You cant win 8 of 9 games in the playoffs without that happening.

Plus the guy with the 3.5 era, maybe gives up more runs if his team would have scored more runs for him. You cant punish Clayton for giving up 4 runs when his team has a 7 run lead in the late innings. Plus he has so many other wins as well. Giving up some runs in exchange for no big innings has value for W's. Its not like the dodgers were down 4-0.

Just silly, i not sure what you are arguing about.

But ERA would tell you the guy with a 3.50 ERA pitched better than the guy with a 4.00 ERA independent of any other information.

Disagree completely. Depends on your defense. Lots of defenders dont make 'error's but they are still plays they should of made. Or errors are wiped away but add to the pitch count. Yesterday Kershaw had a sure double play booted by Seager resulting in more pitches and maybe could of led to scoring that should of never happend.

Plus if your team is up 7 runs you tend to give up more runs than you would if you are up 1 run. Many more other factors as well (ie. ballpark parameters/al/nl.etc.)

If era is 9.00 versus 2.00..then i agree assuming same amount of innings etc. But when era is in the 2.5-4.5 in sample size of only 15-20 games...a few earned runs changes your era a ton.

Hijack Post - ERAs and eras
 

Not going to mention Kershaw in this post. Promise.;)

And pardon me for probably preaching to the choir.

Premise: Deadball pitchers were really good, or were they?

With all the talk about pitcher's ERAs as a measure of greatness, consider first

in 1905 when 4.1 runs were scored per team/game in the National League and
in 1905 NL teams made average of 294 errors/team for the season,and
in 1905 about 29% of runs scored were unearned, and so
in 1905 the league average ERA was 2.99

in 1955 when 4.5 runs were scored per team/game in the National League and
in 1955 NL teams made average of 142 errors/team for the season, and
in 1955 about 11% of runs scored were unearned, and so
in 1955 the league average ERA was 4.04

in 2015 when 4.2 runs were scored per team/game in the National League and
in 2015 NL teams made average of 95 errors/team for the season, and
in 2015 less than 8% of runs scored were unearned, and so
in 2015 the league average ERA was 3.90

The NL and the years chosen were done so randomly, but seem representative of the eras they represent.

Have the advances in equipment, primarily gloves, made pitchers worse due to their higher ERAs in the modern game? NO

Why then hasn't run production decreased parallel to the improvement in fielding?

Is a deadball pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 equivalent to a modern pitcher with an ERA of 3.00? NO

ERA as a stat is limited. One error early in an inning can lead to 7 or 8 unearned runs largely due to the ineffectiveness of the pitcher rather than the single error in many cases.

Using the stat to compare pitchers from different eras ain't going to work either.

Using the stat to compare a pitcher to his contemporary peers makes a little more sense, but still has its limits.

WaJo was one of the greats in his era, but who knows what his ERA would be in 2015????

I'm sure this post opens the door to a discussion of WHIPs, BLIPs and FLIPs, but I'm old-fashioned and not going there.:D

this is total nonsense. we KNOW pitcher wins are a terrible way to judge performance and we KNOW that Livan's MVP win was stupid and a result of incompetent voting, stop using these things to push your narrative about Kershaw's playoff performance.

He has been up and down in the playoffs, but it's such a small sample size as to be pretty much pointless as a gauge. The people who claim he "chokes" are idiots and the people who try to pretend he's been amazing are also idiots.

yes, if a guy gives up a bunch of runs but the offense scores more, he still sucks as a pitcher. PITCHER WINS ARE NOT INDICATORS OF QUALITY PITCHING. it isn't 1935 any more, time to evolve with the times

At what point would you be willing to drop the "small sample size" argument? I guess 22 games 18 starts and 113 innings in you still feel it isn't enough to make any judgments at all about the relative merits of his post and regular season performances, so how much more is needed in your view?

8 of last 9 playoffs starts with dodgers winning the game is a big enough sample size. Plus his stats are trending in the right direction and season not over yet..

pitcher numbers don't become predictive until they reach around 350-400 innings. The playoffs are individual sets of series where performance is magnified. So Kershaw's good starts get muddled by bad starts and because they exists over several different seasons they don't really tell us much information at all. It's not like he pitches 18 starts over one playoffs,and it's really not fair to look at it this way. It really needs to be judged year by year, and with a grain of salt because of the randomness of hit sequencing and other things like defensive issues. (that may not result in errors thus clouding ERA in any given playoff series or season)


I wish fangraphs did FIP for the playoffs, but I can't seem to find it, it would be a better thing to look at to judge Kershaw. (even tho the SSS issue still would be present)

The playoffs are NOT the regular season, and a pitcher doesn't get 33-34 starts to generate "predictive" numbers. In a 5 or 7 game series, the best may get 2-3 shots to prove their worth, and in an elimination game he better be nearly perfect.

The regular season is the regular season, while the playoffs are a totally different animal, requiring a different set of tactics for the short series.

It takes something well beyond pure numbers to take the ball and dominate in an elimination game. Conversely if a lights out, regular season staff ace gets blasted, goes 0-2, loses an elimination game, I'd guess the argument that "it wasn't a large enough sample size" doesn't carry much weight in his clubhouse.

this is just gibberish..... look, sports measure performance via statistics, it's what we have to look at, all the "he's got guts" or "he's a choker" in the world has no veracity, nor any predictive ability and is thus worthless. It's just confirmation bias or recency bias in a smug hat.

What I'm saying is, "clutch" isn't a skill. (and this is a fact by the way, not my opinion)

Plus, your point that the playoffs are different is correct. It's results are LESS reliable and predictive because of the nature of their small sample size and fractured nature (only 3 series played a year if you are good enough to make it every year)


In modern day postseason where 10 teams make it yet only play 3 series (plus that dumb one game play in ) the playoffs are very much a crapshoot. In fact, it's so different from the regular season as to be nearly a pointless waste of time other than making TV revenue.

Sorry, but I still love BOTH the regular season AND the post-season.

I'm just annoyed how dilute it's become. After 162 games 10 out of 30 teams should not have a chance to win it all.

Now that I've just figured out how to use the Ignore List... what a series!!!

Humans playing baseball. Some rise to the occasion (clutch), while others seem to feel the pressure (choke). It's fantastic! Imperfectly, and humanly fantastic.

nothing funnier than when people not only refuse to recognize their ignorance, they revel in it!

I bet you think evolution is a govt conspiracy too eh? :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

That small sample size thing is killing Clayton!! :D But he will do better when they stop playing live games and start doing APBA simulations. Then he can regress to the mean, or whatever that statistical term is.

Some people can't handle the fact that Kershaw is a choker. It is real, some people just don't want to admit it. Some players just can't handle pressure and they choke like Kershaw. Others aren't affected by pressure.

I remember really liking a girl when I was like 14, but every time I got a chance to talk to her, I froze up, and usually just walked away. I CHOKED!!!

People can get nervous! People can choke!! Others don't, and they score all the chicks.

The clutch hitting seen tonight is just unreal. I can't remember anything like... since game 2 that is.

And Barnes has some huge ballz stretching that single into a double.

Game 5 was the best World Series game I have ever seen. I didn't care much who wins this series until I watched this game tonight. Now I have to pull for Houston. That team just would not quit. Actually both teams. It was like two boxers trading punches and the last one standing wins. WOW.

Simply amazing game tonight.

crazy unique game. Jenson really hurting the legacy.

Not sure why not keep kershaw in with 90 pitches against altuve...might as well go down with him than maeda....2 more inherited runners scored on keshaw with 2 outs no less. Really hard to win playoff games....thats why the dodgers winning 7 out of the last 8 kershaw playoff starts so amazing...even this one he exited with a 3 run lead..

Dodgers somehow need to get past verlander....but even if get to game 7..id rather start Wood than Yu..

I think some games just are on the extreme and can be thrown out. A game with 25 runs probably would be considered an outlier...every pitcher in game 5 would be considered a choker...kershaw probably pitched the best versus every other pitcher in game 5...

kershaw didnt lose the game..when up 3 when he exited with 2 outs as well....what he have 1 Loss in his last 10 playoff starts? thats far from a choker..and agaisnt number 1 starters to boot....now Kenley is another matter...

Not really wanting to engage in the Kershaw post season debate, but have to comment. He is clearly an amazing pitcher, the best (during the regular season) of this decade, but had he brought his A game, he would not be getting pulled before the end of the 5th.

I know Bumgarner's post season stats get talked about more than enough, but when talking about what might be good for Kershaw, I have to point out the lines from Bum's WS appearances.

2010-
8 innings, 0 ER- Win (road)

2012-
7 innings, 0 ER- Win (road)

2014-
7 innings, 1 ER- Win (road)
9 innings 0 ER- Shutout Win
5 innings, 0 ER- saves game 7 (road)

For good measure, throw in his 2x complete game shutouts in elimination wild card games, and you've got a true postseason ace.

When you have to make qualification after qualification about someone/something, it's probably just not that great.

Will you just stop with the spin already. He got shelled.

No such thing as clutch hitting. Just random hit sequencing. :D

I agree. It's like trying to place a hundred mile an hour fastball as a batter. I see the announcers say the batter tried to pull or drive it. I say BS?> he was just trying to get his bat on it and that is where it went.

It is about making solid contact. The record 8 home runs allowed by Kershaw isn't random. It's not like he has even pitched that many innings, 29. When the Cardinals were in the World Series, you could pencil Bob Gibson in for 27 without a division series or LCS. I know, today the snowflakes can't be asked to do too much.

haha, right, we all know these guys are in no way influenced by the national stage, or the game situation :D. A .290 hitter, is a .290 hitter, is a .290 hitter... or shall I say, a 3.4 WAR guy, is a 3.4 WAR guy, is a 3.4 WAR guy.

To Leon's comment about announcers, I agree that stuff gets overstated a lot, however watch an MLB BP, and you'll see many/most guys work through a progression in their first couple rounds--- bunt toward 1st, bunt toward 3rd, groundballs to right, groundballs to left, then hit away. I doubt there's a whole lot of this directional hitting in game situations, and guys like Stanton have never been asked to bunt, or hit a groundball to 2nd. However I do think a lot of the low K rate, good bat control guys regularly try to execute this stuff on hit and runs, against the shift, butcher play, etc.

Anyone else think Corey Seager looks like Roger Maris?

Well they got past Verlander...but didnt start Wood (or kershaw)

Wait till next year

Gonna remember this one:)

You musty be kidding. You know what Maris looks like these days?!:D (I know, I'll be crucified for this remark - but am a lifelong Yankee fan so okay).

Now do you see it?

Agreed. Even the ears match.

Justin Turner was the greatest clutch hitter since Babe Ruth. Until he wasn’t.

Lol, he does not look like Joe Jackson!

Andrew Toles would of made a huge difference if he didnt tear his ACL..

yet again, further evidence the narrative has changed on Kershaw not being a a good playoff pitcher...its been 3 or so straight years now where he has been good to great......whip will be 1.08 around and era will be in the 3's when this year is over.

guy has won 8 postseason games now..plus had the lead in several others in which the bullpen blew or left in a tie situation........

the narrative of him not being a good playoff pitcher has changed....


He is 6-1 with a save right now since 2016.... ....... need to talk david price if want to talk playoff issues....the ship has sailed on kershaw

You were saying..

So you were not impressed with his 3 innings of work last night?

...the ship has sailed on kershaw

Flat earth proponents presume that Kershaw and Grandal sailed to the edge of the earth last night and were unable to tack.

So he gave up a 407 foot home run to the Brewer's relief pitcher...doesn't everybody?

I was saying the narrative has changed on kershaw. Game 5 the biggest game of the series thus far with teh brewers 7 innings only 3 hits and 9 ks.....of course it helps when your teams doesnt allow unearned runs or catcher allows 3 passed balls and other issues that cause runs to be 'earned' but caused by defense.

Heck even the run he allowed today probably not scored if they take the out on the pitcher instead of letting the ball go foul..


The narrative has changed on the playoff performance of kershaw...

He came up huge today.

even throwing 91 mph....its christian yelich thats really let his team down...a lot of real key at bats this series......hes like bizarro grandal...

General observation
 

So far it seems like LA and MIL can pitch and that BOS and HOU can hit.

What this means for the Series Is speculation, but we will find out.

Well AL parks have a DH and they dont get to walk players with 2 outs to face a the pitcher......

A simplistic response to a simplistic observation.

So whichever league has the home field advantage in the WS wins.

I did not know that.

I wonder if the bookies in Vegas know that.

Readers of this thread are sure to place their bets accordingly and win.:rolleyes:

Read an article today entitled The Kershawsheck Redemption :)

it's bad enough that we get the pro/con kershaw post here after every one of his start...but actual highly respected baseball writers who get paid to make insightful observations about the game also live and die with every october kershaw start. it is what it is, the kershaw conundrum has jumped the shark a few years and a dozen articles ago...he's not as bad as the numbers suggest but absolutely has not been the dominant regular season kershaw either. until his team wins a world series he will always have that monkey on his back. that's about as objective as i can be being a lifetime dodgers fan.

Agree with this. Kersh has had some clutch postseason performances, game 1 of the world series to name one. He's had some stinkers, a couple that especially hurt because of 7th inning implosions in the midst of dominating performances. A couple others where he got shelled. He's no choker, but not consistently the best regular season pitcher I've personally seen with my own eyes either.

Pretty surprising that Houston got swept at home. Despite the bad call on the Altuve homer, Boston was simply the better team.