I am not sure that SGC being eliminated is a foregone conclusion. I invest in cards, not holders or owners of TPGs.

I am not good with a crystal ball and I hope you are right. I have far more SGC cards in my collection than PSA. Each of us...or at least most of us...are simply guessing at what is going to happen.

If SGC ceases to exist then those of us who stayed loyal to SGC invested in the owner and whether or not you or I see those SGC cards as being worth less once the brand is gone, what you and I think is meaningless.

Anything in an SGC holder at some point will be seen/construed/assumed to being unworthy of crossing either because the owner did not want to take a 2 grade point hit or because PSA was going to put the card in an Auth holder. The perception will be more important than the reality.

I have no idea what will happen to SGC, but I am not writing them off just yet.

Sold SGC Cobb and Cap Anson --just in time!
 

Sold my SGC Cobb and SGC Cap Anson just last couple weeks for good $$$$--not sure if either would have crossed over with same grade, the Anson possibly just Authentic-Lucky timing if prices collapse-guess we'll wait and see.

One thing is certain from reading this thread:
The answer to every single question asked about this acquisition will be an absolutely guaranteed 100% NO, while also being an absolutely guaranteed 100% YES. :eek:

Much of what I've read from people both here and on various other platforms seems to be rooted in either wishful thinking or out of fear of the worst-case scenarios. Not many people seem to be putting themselves in Nat's shoes or in SGC's shoes when trying to predict what is most likely to happen.

I love game theory, and I usually try to view these sorts of things through that lens. So, what do we know?

We know that any PR message put out right now by either company means nothing about their long-term vision. They simply have to state that nothing will change and that it will be business as usual, regardless of their true intentions. But that doesn't mean their true intentions can't be to maintain both brands indefinitely. To solve that riddle, we can make some assumptions based on what we know and assume that Nat et al will act rationally.

We know PSA wants more quality vintage graders. SGC has them. Bringing them into the fold is a strong value add. We also know that PSA wants to continue to expand its footprint physically. Adding a location in FL makes a lot of sense for them. We also know that SGC has been growing significantly over the past couple years. Their growth rate is many multiples of PSAs. Had that trend continued, and had they been acquired by someone with more financial backing like Fanatics or CGC, they might have become a serious threat to PSA. So Collectors buying them out before someone else caps that threat at the knees.

But just because they bought out SGC doesn't mean they did so just to shut down competition and steal their graders (who would certainly become disgruntled employees if that were the case). It just doesn't make sense financially.

Here's what I think will happen. I think Collectors does in fact want to allow SGC to continue to operate for the foreseeable future. Not because they said so, but because it makes the most sense financially. SGC has a loyal vintage following, and PSA doesn't exactly win them over if they were to buy them out and shut it down. That would risk an army of disgruntled SGC employees all jumping ship and just moving over to CGC where they'd be welcomed with open arms. News would spread quickly that CGC is the new SGC and the vintage community would follow them over in an instant. Nat & company aren't stupid. They are fully aware of these risks. They want to keep SGC customers happy and they want to keep SGC employees happy. That said, most of the growth that SGC has experienced came from the ultra-modern side of the hobby. Those submitters are not loyal to SGC. They don't care about the cards at all. They just want to flip their cards as quickly as possible and get 10s on them. SGC is often their best option because of the turnaround times and lower grading fees. If SGC were to shut down, most of that business likely would transfer over to PSA - especially if they are able to improve their turnaround times by then.

I suspect PSA's long-term intentions are to keep SGC up and running for as long as it makes sense. If the market continues to show strong demand for SGC's services, then they'll continue to offer them. If the market turns its back on SGC as a result of the merger, then they'll be more likely to let the brand die. I doubt they have concrete long-term plans with everything completely ironed out at this point. I think what we'll see after a couple of years is a joint PSA/SGC office in FL where both brands operate independently but with shared resources; technical, grading, and operations. PSA will likely take advantage of the vintage grading experts at SGC and put them to work on both PSA and SGC submissions. FL will become their vintage hub. All bulk vintage submissions will likely be sent there. They'll allow anyone who wants to move from CA to FL to do so, and vice versa. But they won't force any of them to. This could be a good thing for us as collectors. The SGC graders have pride in their work, and they're better at grading vintage cards than most PSA vintage graders, and they know it. PSA knows it as well. These guys will eventually be grading our PSA cards. That will result in more consistent and accurate vintage grades at PSA. It will also likely result in more SGC slabs crossing over at a higher rate as they have pride in those slabs.

Turn-around times at SGC will likely slow as PSA shares resources at the FL office to balance out volumes across both brands. Grading fees (and their corresponding value thresholds) are likely to be slightly less favorable at SGC in the future, but not for a while.

I think it's premature to assume that the sky is falling. Getting rid of SGC completely just doesn't make a ton of sense for PSA. But putting them under the same roof in FL as PSA and creating a joint office does make a ton of sense. These guys are going to do whatever makes the most sense financially. And it doesn't make sense to spend $100M to acquire SGC only to shut them down, steal their graders, and piss off all their customers. That's just not going to happen.

That said, if SGC does eventually go away, it will have a measurable effect on their slab values in the limit. At first, values will remain fairly close to where they are now as the market trusts their grades and people will continue to pay top dollar for their cards because they'll have confidence that they will cross over to PSA (and I do believe they will cross over at a higher rate in the future when former SGC graders are the ones crossing them). But as time goes on and more and more of these cards get crossed over, there will eventually be a sentiment among collectors that the remaining SGC slabs that are still out there are less and less likely to cross. This sentiment will exist because it will be true. That will slowly devalue SGC slabs. But there will be a floor to how far they can fall. The market will always respect their grading, and ultimately, the cards inside are still what matters most.

If I see an SCD graded card, I put a premium on it over PSA (I'm sure nobody else does) :) Unfortunately SCD didn't grade many cards. I'll always keep the few SCD graded cards that I own encapsulated in the SCD slabs. If for nothing else, for historical collecting significance. Who knows, maybe someday some knuckleheads will put a value on the plastic and flip :p ROI baby.. (insert vomit emoji)...

Snowman, I will admit, I disagree with many of the things you post. However, I think your post above is well written, sensible, and likely accurate. This time, I agree with you completely, especially the part re-quoted above.

I pretty much agree with everything that snowman/Travis just wrote.

Its a well-reasoned guess.

(You beat me to it Ryan)

I think this does create a very real opportunity though for CGC. I really hope they are able to capitalize on it.

What precedent is there for a dominant industry player acquiring a minor, niche competitor and continuing indefinitely to maintain its separateness and prop up its brand?

SCD and me
 

Attachment 612495

My entire SCD collection

Exactly Peter. You get it.

Folks, look at the poll on the main board. 44 percent like me are in agreement, SGC will eventually dissolve. Maybe not today, maybe not in a year, but eventually it will happen. Collectors is not, I repeat, not going to run two companies like this forever. Makes no sense in the long run.

I have Sgc cards and I am now wonder what to do with them. Hold, cross, sell…. Not sure yet. But the news on Thursday has me thinking, as I am sure other SGC collectors are thinking as well. I know PSA will be flooded with crosses over the next few weeks.

44% think SGC will be dissolved, but 50% think SGC will continue operating, though some think prices will increase and service will suffer.

Poll the hobby in general, not this enclave of SGC devotees, and I bet the result would be wildly different. Not that it means anything of course; only Nat knows for sure and maybe he doesn't even know yet.

i wonder the same. For now I've landed on wait and see, but not very satisfying.

I'm not claiming the poll is indicative of the entire hobby. I'm just pushing back on the idea that the poll indicates that Collector's will kill SGC.
But I agree that perhaps no one, including Nat knows what will happen with SGC.

While I agree that in the short term sgc cards should maintain their value comparatively...esp the older more obscure stuff. Once us middle aged dinosaurs die off...SGC will have been long gone and the whippersnappers will shun anything in an SGC holder as fake/altered.

I'm not too concerned about values of my SGC collection as most are very desirable ruthian cards or more rare caramels and tobaccos.

Is it this?: Or is it this?: It sounds like maybe you actually do think Dave is in the peace corps and only refrained from selling because of his selfless dedication to the SGC customer base. Not because the offer wasn't right for him until now.

Regardless, it's no one's business why he sold or how much he got. When you own a business, you get to sell whenever you want, for as much or as little as you want.

I'm just grateful Dave held out as long as he could in order not to keep us collectors holding the bag. What a selfless act of hobby benevolence!

Well, they're not incongruent. He had offers over the years that would have made him very wealthy but didn't take them in part because he felt that SGC customers could get screwed. And that is what largely made the prior offers not right for him. I know, because I spoke to him during that time period about them.

Now he got the offer he wanted and the comfort he needed for SGC customers.
Had he taken a prior offer, there would be outrage from his customer base, instead of what we have here, which is a mix of optimism, anguish and jealousy.

He should buy you 2 dinners.

Can you explain the comfort? Because I am not seeing that for SGC collectors (unless further information is coming out?).

That Collectors will provide the capital to improve SGC and that SGC will remain a separate, ongoing company.

Agreed
And that Plank looks good in a tux

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I can vouch for this. I had similar discussions. Dave is proud of SGC and he feels loyal to his customer-base, and he declined previous offers, at least in part, because it was not good for the brand, his customers, and employees. I had not spoken to Dave in several months (although we did text recently and I congratulated him), so I cannot vouch for the second part of Jeff’s post. But if the past is any indication of the present, I suspect Jeff’s second paragraph is accurate. That said, it’s now collectors’ company and I suppose they will do with SGC what they will. Time will tell.

Like many, I too have many cards in SGC flips. I think selling now would be a terrible idea, because buyers are likely vultures looking for panicked sellers. It may be worthwhile considering crossing cards, although I am not sure that is necessary, as it will always be an option (and perhaps PSA will give some deal/facilitate it down the line). As far as buying SGC flips, if I see a card I want in an SGC flip, I will buy it with confidence; indeed, I wouldn’t mind getting a deal bc people are scared to buy. Trust me, I wish this wasn’t happening- because it creates a lot of uncertainty and more likely downside than upside - but, for me, it’s business as usual. I would be much more pessimistic had SGC closed down, or been bought by Beckett or some lesser company.

End of the day, if I can get cards in SGC flips at a discount bc people are scared to buy, great!

I plead very guilty to cynicism and skepticism especially in this hobby, but when the dominant market player acquires essentially the only remaining competitor in the vintage market, and people are trying to put a positive spin on it, no thanks.

Thanks buddy!

I currently have 3 subs at SGC now, with several more that I am preparing to send, however my fear now is that given the state of todays workforce, will the employees and especially the graders completely check out and have less desire to peform their jobs at a high level.

Turn around times have slowed considerably lately, which doesnt bother me, but would hate to see bad grades given if employee moral has diminshed.

Hmmm...that does not sound like optimism, anguish or jealousy.

This deal meets the definition of big business and in big business we all know where the common man is. Call me a moron but I cannot see how Collectors could give any assurances or comfort to those holding SGC cards.

The parties or their shills can say anything, but just for myself I would take it with a grain of salt. If it turns out to be a good thing, it may be the first time that happened from eliminating competition, but this hobby is effed up enough that I suppose anything is possible.

Cross-over $$$
 

Make cross-over money to help cover the 100 million purchase price and eliminate the competition at the same time. Could be a brilliant business scheme. Time will tell.

I do not see the comfort either….the Comfort in SGC was during the pandemic when PSA was way slowed and expensive…. This is the perfect time for Mr. Foreman to cash out. His company looks the strongest now as it has been in years they generated so much revenue more than usual, due to PSA, increases and slowness during the pandemic. The confidence will continue in SGC until the slabs become extinct, and when you send them to SGC they come back in a PSA holder as one United Company one slab. then will stay with PSA and everything will be OK. Collectors who loved SGC will coalesce knowing PSA bought SGC and their pre-war experience that they love this is a positive in the long run.

I’ve been in IT for 40 years. At least in that industry in never happens. I think if you don’t see an investment in an SGC Registry(maybe a pipe dream) or a merged registry that will be a tell tale sign. SGC collectors have been mentioning it ever since they moved to Florida and it has been deflected every year. PSA has the software and resources to do it, but why invest in a brand you’re going to kill.

I haven’t read every note, but maybe PSA is planning on getting out of California to a tax-friendly “red” state. You saw what Trump did, Jeff Bezos did.


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Collectors SGC
 

I've waited a couple days to "read the room" on this thread. Many people are
putting forward thoughtful comments, while others use it to obliquely dig
at those who prefer SGC (I just learned I'm part of an "enclave of devotees".
Who'da thunk it?) Good Lord...

I agree that this is a good move by SGC ownership, selling to advantage.
Don't blame them a bit. Time will tell if/when/how PSA will somehow
manage to be intelligent about the SGC acquisition, or if they snatch defeat
from the jaws of victory.

Meantime, I'm not "flooding" PSA with cracked SGC cards for conversion,
because my faith in PSA's ability to grade properly hasn't changed. I'm
happy to keep my SGCs for the foreseeable future, see how things evolve
rather than make a mad dash for the panic room. People have remarked
about the demise of companies like GAI and the devaluation of their cards.
I'm not sure that's a clean comparison, SGC didn't simply fold and their
product is desirable. Quality tends to survive.

I attend a really good local show next weekend and Strongsville in April.
Those places will be a good testing ground for how hobbyists/dealers are
taking the news, I would think.

Trent King

After reading through this thread there seems to be "SGC" and "PSA" collectors. I'm neither. I collect cards that may or may not be encapsulated and if encapsulated, it could be by either (or different) TPG plastic housing the cards.

I'm not going to bust the card out of a piece of plastic because of some BS brand loyalty to a TPG whose subjectivity is just as bad as the other TPG.

In the end, does it really matter? It's a piece of plastic with a paper flip. I can't imagine why the encapsulation is going to influence the pricing that much.

I get it, if it's in a PSA slab it may get a little more money, but do people really think that because it's not in PSA plastic, the card is going to be worth so much less?

The writers of Seinfeld could have had a field day with this topic. I could see Larry David poking a lot of fun at this in Curb Your Enthusiasm.

PSA To Buy SGC – Should This Card Grading Monopoly Be Allowed?

https://allvintagecards.com/psa-to-buy-sgc-monopoly/

I think the purchase of SGC will go completely under the radar of the FCC because "For 2024, the size-of-transaction threshold for reporting proposed mergers and acquisitions under Section 7A of the Clayton Act will adjust from $111.4 million to $119.5 million". I believe the purchase of SGC was/will be slightly less than $119.5

Even if it was above the $119.5 threshold should the FCC apply resources/scrutiny to this completely non-essential service?

You mean the FTC, not the FCC, but yes it's under reportable thresholds.

I agree with most of this...EXCEPT that only card nerds would appreciate a curb episode on this topic...not funny for the masses!

I could see a documentary on the comical corruption of the sports card hobby someday on tbs or the history channel.

I mean the Federal Collectables Commission (Ba Dum Tiss, slaps self congratulatory five)

We are several days since the news broke and people keep saying that PSA bought SGC

Literacy rates must be on the decline

I throughly enjoy all the discussion. This meme did make me lol.

Collectors SGC
 

Parkplace- good meme. Sadly, the wrong TPG is left standing after the
Thanos finger snap:)

Trent King

I have been part of the window covering industry for many years. The largest company in the window covering world is Hunter Douglas. Hunter's sales in 2021 were 4.6 Billion. They have purchased a wide variety of related companies for one of a few reasons.
1- Taking over a customer base an increasing distribution.
2- Proprietary products or technology
3- An off shoot of 1. Buying your competitor means less competition while at the same time bringing in the purchased companies revenue. It is likely PSA can run the company with the same or similar staff on the corporate side increasing profitability.

Hunter has let some companies continue under their own banner. Typically, its business as usual for the 1st year or so. Over time the original company disappears and becomes Hunter sometimes with the original companies name, sometimes not

Because SGC has a large and loyal customer base and is true competition for PSA , it made sense for PSA to take them over. Clearly, they did not buy SGC for #2 (proprietary products or technology) or a handful of graders.

While not a perfect analogy PSA took out their toughest competition and will now be SGC as well for as long as it suits them. I also believe (and hope) that SGC graded cards should hold up at least on vintage as they are well respected

The numbers I have seen suggest that PSA already had a 78% market share, so adding SGC bumps them to around 85%. In theory, 78% is already a monopoly.

By the sum of the squares test, this acquisition adds about 1000 points to an already highly concentrated market, which is a lot.

My best guess, and I have no special information, is this:

1)PSA will eventually absorb SGC
2)In the long run, SGC slabs will lose value once the brand is defunct
3)When PSA absorbs SGC, however, they will take care not to alienate SGC devotees, which means they will offer a discounted crossover rate and, while they will not officially or automatically crossover at the same grade, they will *wink-wink-nudge-nudge* crossover in a much more generous manner, generally at the same grade unless it seems egregious.

Just curious - how much lost value is anticipated? Is the anticipated lost value the difference between a "raw" card and one that is in a PSA slab? Is it being predicted that a card in an SGC holder will lose all value related to a TPG examination?

I am really hoping for #2 to happen now even if SGC doesn't close right away. I love hearing those say they are now holding off on sending SGC cards. If enough people panic I can buy their SGC slabbed cards cheap.:D

I wonder how many people are sending or trying to cross over now? I'm sure this will all be the talk at the Philly Show.

It's been about five years but SGC formerly would grade on site at the Strongsville Show it was Great. With the new larger location this year, no longer the Best Western/Holiday Inn, I would hope they can find a way to do on-site. It was so nice to be able to get your cards graded in person at that show. SGC is or was a favorite to many vintage collectors. The Strongsville Show always was considered the best mainly Vintage Show of the year other than the National.