Sheffield has the PED problem, right?
Parker is another one of those guys who, to me anyhow, seemed better at the time than the metrics showed in hindsight.

A huge part of the increased velocity is that the arm is actually in better shape because of all the rehab the pitcher does. It's grueling rehab and the player ends up in much better shape (all over) if they do it correctly, hence added velocity.

I forget if it was here or over on the PSA boards but someone made a post basically detailing that Koufax was a PED user by pretty much every definition of the word.

If Bonds, Clemens and Canseco had been more likeable people, you wonder if the whole perception would be different. See example of Big Papi.

I think being likable helps...that's why Pettite gets some HOF love and some others don't.

On Ortiz...I just don't put "leaked positive for something on an anonymous test before there was real testing" in the same category as "positive test after when testing became a thing".

Plus, of note...all the "good" part of Ortiz's career came AFTER testing was put in place.

Look at his HR totals up to age 26.

https://sports.cbslocal.com/2016/05/...eroid-red-sox/

There are two (at least two) ways to look at this. I don’t really like the "this [bad selection] is in and this guy was better so he should be in" approach. I call this the "Baines and Haines Problem". There are hundreds of pitchers better than Jesse Haines that are not in the Hall (at least according to Baseball Reference rankings), but that doesn't mean they all should be in. I like the "Magee Method" where there is a player you can make a reasonable argument is the best at his position not in the Hall.

I am not smart enough to determine what "best" means so I will just present for your consideration the highest ranked player at each position (as per Baseball Reference) eligible for the Hall who is not tainted by either accusation or proof of steroid or HGH use. Pete Rose and Joe Jackson are not eligible so they are not included below, nor are active players (since they are not eligible yet).

c Thurman Munson (Joe Mauer ranks higher but has not been retired for five years)
1b Todd Helton
2b Bobby Grich
ss Bill Dahlen
3b Scott Rolen
lf Sherry Magee
cf Kenny Lofton (Carlos Beltran ranks higher but has not been retired for five years)
rf Dwight Evans
sp Jim McCormick
rp Bobby Shantz

The last one was a surprise to me but Shantz pitched in 537 games and started 171, so I guess he qualifies as a relief pitcher. However, over 25% of his career WAR came from his MVP season as a starter. After him is Tom Gordon, who was also both a reliever and starter (890 games, 206 starts) but whose WAR was more evenly distributed. After him is Firpo Marberry, who I was surprised to see had about the same game splits as Shantz (551 games, 186 starts) and who I think is the best candidate of the three.

I have never understood how Grich gets so high up in those WAR/JAWS ratings. Here are his other Baseball Reference metrics.


Something does not add up for me.


Black Ink
Batting - 8 (355), AverageHOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink
Batting - 40 (784), AverageHOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 42 (504), LikelyHOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 32 (305), AverageHOFer ≈ 50


And even more telling:
Similar Batters
1.Toby Harrah (908.6)
2.Brandon Phillips (898.2)
3.Jay Bell (894.8)
4.Bret Boone (892.6)
5.Jhonny Peralta (884.1)
6.Asdrubal Cabrera (883.7)
7.Chase Utley (882.6)
8.Sal Bando (879.9)
9.Ian Kinsler (876.1)
10.Travis Fryman (871.6

Right, and if steroids were something you took and you became good at baseball your entire career, it'd be concerning. But since they don't work that way, I see it as "the good part of his career came when testing was in place, and he never tested positive for anything".

I mean, I know they tested "randomly", but you know guys like Ortiz and the other HR guys got tested more than the 160 pound utility infielders.

Now Manny...don't get me started on that sad story.

Yeah, I wish BB-R wouldn't list relievers with a significant number of starts on the list...it really skews things. It also really shows just how amazing Mariano Rivera was, with only 10 career starts (in his rookie year, when he had a 5.51 ERA).

I think the next pure reliever to get elected is Billy Wagner. I think Joe Nathan may eventually get in, as well.

3 percent of his career offensive output through age 26. Doesn't look good.

I see that...but are we to assume he started using steroids and just never got caught?

I wish whatever NY writer leaked that he was on the list had the decency to let us know what he tested positive for.

Neither Bonds nor Clemens ever failed a test administered by MLB.

Big Papi looks the same today as he did when he played, unlike say McGwire, who looks like he shrunk.

But Bonds’ head grew two hat sizes….

That's true...but there's some pretty good public evidence that they used, including what, when, and how.

But maybe the point should be just that we simply do not know who did what and when, and how much it affected their careers.

Did guys like Raffy and Manny only use late in their careers, or for many years? Does it matter? And let's not forget, when they finally started testing, more pitchers tested positive than hitters. What an era....maybe we just need to stop playing "morality police" and just elect the best players of that era.

I'm not sure it holds up to analysis, but I would still keep out Sosa and Palmeiro. I think my gut tells me those guys were just OK players without cheating whereas Bonds and Clemens and possibly McGwire were HOF caliber anyhow. Hard to know what to make of guys like Ortiz who I really like but strongly suspect, and strongly suspect he wasn't that great without. Manny, just no clue.

This is true. My list of suspected users is a lot longer than most. I'm in the Ken Caminiti & Jose Canseco camp that says a big percentage was using.

Jeff frickin' Kent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Come on now!!!!!!!!!!!

Pardon my outrage, but...
How the hell is the all-time leader in RBIs and HRs for a second baseman NOT a first ballot HOFer??????????????????? He was a run scoring monster at a position that's not noted for knocking guys in!!! He had 1,500 RBIs as a second baseman!!! He won an MVP!!! And he's going to drop off the ballot? Why, because the ridiculous sportswriters don't like him?? Boo f_cking hoo!!!!!! What a joke!!!

And save me the stupidity of advanced theoretical stats to pretend he doesn't belong. We all watched him play and know what a stud he was. On any all-time greats baseball team, he would be playing second base.

Oh, and Dave Parker.

Jesse Tannehill’s career stats deserve a serious look.

Wes Ferrell.
6 time 20 game winner and the best hitting pitcher of all-time by a wide margin.

How wide?

Yeah obviously Ruth, but I guess I hadn't been paying attention to Ohtani. He's already got 78 HR? What a beast. I remember seeing a clip of him hitting a ball through the stadium roof in Japan. So maybe Ferrell is the third best hitting pitcher ever...

Two factors explain Grich’s war vs other metrics

1. 16.8 of his war is from defense

2. He was very consistent. Never had a bad year and never had a crazy good year. Therefore he was always valuable but didn’t lead the league in much

Also the fact that 2B was not exactly an offensive position during Grich's career. He had a lot of 13 homer, 50 RBI seasons that just don't look all that impressive.

Maybe the numbers don't support me but I would rather have Jeff Kent or Chase Utley in the Hall than Grich. Whitaker too.

I like Grich a lot, but also prefer Kent and Utley over him for the Hall. I would put Whitaker on a par with Grich. I prefer a smaller HOF, but would not mind if all four of them eventually got in. Some of the recent inductees would bug me more than all 4 of those second baggers getting in.

Buck ONeil

I think it comes down to offense vs. defense, peak vs longevity, with a touch of era/recency bias. That being said, looking at Utley and Kent’s raw numbers, they do feel more like HOFers. I honestly think all four belong.

My borderline personal 2B case is Pedroia. Borderline WAR total, but pretty much done at 33 due to injury. Strong rate stats for the position, ROY, MVP, WS wins, great defense, and a fun “gritty underdog gamer” vibe.

Pedroia needed a couple of more years. If that dirtball Machado hadn't Ulf Samuelson'd him, he would have been a HOFer.

Here's another "team" for your consideration. These are the (non-steroid/HGH) players at each position who got the highest percentage of votes in a given year but who are not in the Hall (the number is their single highest %). This was based on looking at roughly the top 100 players at each position and clicking on the ones I thought were good candidates for the list, so I may have missed someone. Since Baseball Reference does not show the recent Veteran's Committee voting, these totals are not included. My understanding is that, among others, Bill Dahlen came close one year. If I can find a list of all those ballots I will update the team.

I found the recent VC results and have added them below. Only one position was changed but some players did get a higher % from the VC.

Dick Allen would be ahead at 1b or 3b depending on what you consider him. He had more games at 1b but had more WAR at 3b (at least that's how I interpret Baseball Reference ranking him under 3b).

C Elston Howard 20.7
1b Gil Hodges 63.4
2b Jeff Kent 32.4
ss Omar Vizquel 52.6 (Dahlen 62.5 VC)
3b Scott Rolen 52.9
lf Minnie Minoso 21.1 (56.3 VC)
cf Andruw Jones 33.9
rf Tony Oliva 47.3 (68.8 VC)
sp Curt Schilling 71.1
rp Billy Wagner 46.4
1b/3b Dick Allen 68.8 VC

The only player on both of my lists is Scott Rolen. He does have a good combination of "advanced" stats and traditional stats (over 300 HRs, five 100+ RBI seasons) and was a 7-time All-Star and 8-time Gold Glove winner. The ballot will be less crowded soon (Schilling, Bonds, and Clemens only have one year of eligibility left) so I'm thinking he will get in one day.

If you consider the VC voting, Dahlen is also on both lists.

Don Newcombe swung a pretty good bat. The Dodgers used to use him as a pinch hitter.

I think Ferrell edges him out, but Red Ruffing was also a good hitter who was often used a pinch hitter.

As a fellow Sun Devil I love DP. But he's no HOF.

Pedroia was 34 when that happened and would of barely gotten over 2k hits if he remained healthy to play into his 40s. He Batted over 300 5 of his 12 healthy seasons & truly only played 150+ games 5 times in 14 years.

Even in 08 when he got the mvp, it was controversial (.326 /17hr/83 rbi). Morneau got robbed that season & Rodriguez had 62 saves that season which was more deserving.

His 51.6 war is impressive but there are 45 position players with a WAR better than Pedroia’s 51.6 who are not in the Hall call. 7 of them are 2nd baseman. Grich, Whitaker, Randolph, Kent, Utley, Cano & Kinsler.

Watch the video, Machado's cleat pops up from hitting the bag, barely touches Pedroia who is in a bad defensive fielding position. Taking a throw from from SS behind 2b instead of in front of it is little league stuff. Machado was in his base path which is his right. Aggressive within your right and dirty are too different things.

Want to see an intentionally dirty slide, watch Utley obliterate Miguel Tejada 2 feet from the bag in 2015.


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I didn't study the whole thread and don't know if Albert Belle was mentioned.
During his 9-10 year run he was as dangerous and productive a hitter as anyone in MLB.
Career cut short by debilitating injury and wasn't exactly beloved by the Press but Albert could rake.
Take a look at his stats from the strike season. Can you just imagine where that season would have finished amongst the others from the era.
RayB

94 the last of the Kevin Mitchell years. Him, Griffey, Belle, Thomas and Bagwell where hitting HRs and high BA.

Lofton stealing bases any time he wanted and getting hits like no ones business.

But no one was as hot as Tony and his .394 average. K'd only 19 times in 475 PA. That's 2 weeks for Javy Baez.

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Amazing how quickly everyone "forgot" about Palmeiro. He was on crappy Baltimore and Texas teams but he had probably the second smoothest left handed swing (behind only Griffey, Jr.) of all time. Maybe you're right about him being just "okay" without the 'roids, but I don't think so.

It's hard to argue with 3,000+ hits, 550+ HRs and 1,800+ RBIs. Oh, and did you know that he walked more than he struck out for his career? A career .371 OBP ain't too shabby.

You know how many players are on the exclusive 3k hit and 500 HR club? Only 6. Aaron, Mays, E. Murray, ARod, Pujols, and Palmeiro. That's rarified air there, my friends.

Well…no. Pedroia is 37 NOW.

These are solid points and appreciate the perspective. He would have been an interesting case if he had been able to carry on for a few more years. Regarding Machado's slide, certainly debatable but I still feel it was dirty especially in consideration of his pattern of behavior throughout his career, including a very dirty moment in the 2018 WS.

I just watched the Machado slide and it's basically nothing. Pedroia's positioning is fine, Machado's leg pops up and he spikes Pedroia. Doesn't even really make strong contact with Pedroia's leg. I'm seeing online descriptions saying that Pedroia's knee "buckled" and so on - nope. He got spiked, his leg popped up, and then he went down. If it truly ended his career, it's an amazingly innocuous play for that to happen on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbAYcXPhIUE

Pedroia did have existing knee issues, which I’m sure didn’t help. For what it’s worth, Pedroia didn’t seem to think the slide was dirty.

Maybe it’s my Red Sox tinted glasses, but if I squint, I see an injury shortened career that may have had enough peak without the benefit of longevity. Think Kirby Puckett (he had a shorter career but similar WAR).

Pedroia is 37 now.

Yes, thank you, corrected above.

Kinsler, Utley, Rollins, Pedroia are all similar players with good arguments. Pedroia being the best of the bunch in my opinion.

It's very unlikely Pedroia would have played another 5 years. If he did could he have put up Sandberg type of numbers? Probably not. I feel like thats the bottom line of what it would have taken to get in.

That being said, was Pedroia better then Bobby Doerr who is in? I have heard this argument from Boston fans in the past. I'd say no where close.

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It’s an interesting comparison.

By WAR, they’re close…with a fraction of one WAR separating them (BBR version).

Doerr had about 1,250 more PA. Both were effectively done by age 33, with Doerr getting an earlier start.

Doerr had a .288/.362/.461 line with a .823 OPS and 115 OPS+

Pedroia had a 299/.365/.439 line with an .805 OPS and 113 OPS+

So, I’d probably give Doerr and edge, but it’s not THAT far off.

Of note, WAR is a counting stat…so when I see Kinsler with 2.2 more WAR than Pedroia, but with 1,500 plus more plate appearances, that doesn’t scream “better” to me. A look at their raw numbers, rate stats, etc seems to back that up.

Fun fact, Pedroia beat out Kinsler at SS when both where at ASU, causing the latter to transfer to Mizzou.

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I agree. While they both had injury-shortened careers, Doerr also lost a year and change due to the war. He was drafted in August 1944 and didn't return until 1946.

The fact that Doerr debuted at 19 and was a major league regular is super impressive.

That is an interesting one…I hadn’t heard that. Thanks for sharing!

Fun fact - I played in a father-son fantasy football league with Pedroia 2 years ago. We did a live draft so I got to hang with him for a few hours. He had just had knee surgery and was popping pills every half hour. He took Tom Brady.