If the idea of a pullback from the current sales prices is disconcerting then the answer is simple: sell it all. Take the profit and ride out the next downturn.

I know they're your views. If you choose not to place monetary value on your possessions that have it, that's totally up to you. Saying that it amazes me is not telling others what to do.

And yes, I would be aware of that if I shorted a stock. Have never had to consider that dilemma, because it's never been a part of my trading.

Thanks. Probably will be a keeper for life. Do you still have that 4 goudey Ruth mini set? That was a nice quality set of all 4 goudey Ruth’s!

And I remember that crackerjack box as well. That was a treat to hold in person! Thx.

Some guys bet "dont pass" at the craps table. Sure they're hated by the whole table, but the strategy is there for a reason. Looking toward the future, I'd have to say it would be a little depressing to me if cards went to 0, like a stock going to 0. Sure it's fun to say you owned it, and cards you can look at, but that money has been lost, for good. I cant imagine people's families would think "because it made you happy" it was ok to waste money on yourself, while taking time away from them, and it does sorting, looking, buying , regardless of how much wealth one may have.


For some people selling now would enable them to pay off their house, buy a house, diversify into other long term investments. I just cant see a place where it is hold forever, albeit the inevitable will happen along the way. My only question if I sold everything would be "what's next".

In short, I'd love to add a 52 mantle, but wont feel bad about not having one, more so at these prices. If there is some crash, I may revisit, but to me the price not justifiable. No FOMO here!

Not just BB Cards that people are afraid are in a bubble.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s?srnd=premium

the jump in interest rates spooked parts of the market last week and is on top of the list of risks for any investor. There is no doubt that if stocks rollover, the card market will do the same, and in a more violent fashion.

that said, as long as the Fed is determined to pin rates at zero, it just makes sense to be invested in stocks and other risky assets like coins, cards, etc.

the jump in rates at this point is more due to inflation fear than actual inflation.. i think at the point we see stronger evidence of the latter, that will be the true catalyst.

LOL..."A fool and his money..."

It’s a Shit or Get off the Pot Moment. Keep and Be Happy, Sell and Be Happy, just remember if in a year or two you try to get what stuff your stuff is selling for right now don’t cry if you can’t, and if you do sell now and it goes up way more in two years don’t cry either, that’s all.

Yup. I can afford it to go down 40% and my collection still up 2 times what I paid for. I'm happy wht goes up and won't feel a thing if it drops a lot. And I pretty much only collect vintage . I can hold another 10-15 years and I'm sure the value will retain more than what I paid .

i literally went blind reading this paragraph

Prices may still be going up, but this seems a little overly optimistic:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1911-T3-2-T...0AAOSwVrtgMqOL

Got a chuckle over the "shit or get off the pot moment".

Just crazy the current market. Am struggling with sell/don't sell now myself. Prices seem too good to be true, but then I don't really need the money now, will hold little longer until springtime.

Ususally the market heats up in April/May - spring, baseball starting, NBA close to playoffs. Probably hold, see what spring REA auction has and then results. Could be a good gauge of scarce vintage prices.

Noticed a 1949 Bowman Paige PSA 8 listed on ebay, asking $75.k, oh my. PWCC recently sold on a bit off center for $25.k Don't laugh, this could be well over $50.k in a year if market doesn't collapse.

Stock market is taking a rest from a remarkable run since elections (which feels like a correction in a one way bull market). Since elections, its been the reflation trade - rising commodity/energy prices, higher inflation expectations, and indigestion in the long end of the yield curve. All based on extreme fiscal stimulus, continued accommodative monetary conditions, commodity infrastructure underinvestment, supply chain disruption (ie semi chips), and pentup demand from reopening. You factor in 5% gdp expectations this year and above normal next, people are expecting increased velocity of $, pushing inflation higher.

I believe we will see transitory inflation for reasons above. But we are nowhere close to full employment, and the uneven distribution of wealth from asset reflation is an unbalanced economy that will not allow a level of sustained inflation over the short/intermediate term that would force the fed to change course over the next 3 years. And sure we are finally seeing a rise in real yield (nominal less inflation), but for perspective we rose from negative real yields to zero, a step away from Japanification, but not an endorsement of a secular rise in real yields. Bottom line asset/commodity prices are rising, wages are not, squeezing the have nots and keeping the system accommodative.

Bringing it back to cards, the last couple of cycles since the 90’s card bubble have shown real yields, demand for liquidity and employment are arguably equally (if not more) strong coefficients to vintage card prices than the stock market’s wealth effect and speculation factor.

Cards are a non-income producing, store-of-wealth asset. In that sense, moderate inflation is positive and real rates are negative to card prices. And while real yields have increased from negative rates, it’s still zero... while inflation expectations are rising dramatically (the fed is welcoming this as they want to run hot over their 2% target). This is supportive for cards.

Demand for liquidity is another factor on supply. Cards are a a source of liquidity and as the demand for liquidity increase so do the available cards in the market. Right now, the Fed electronically flooded the system with liquidity and the excess liquidity spilled over into the card market. The Fed has telegraphed accommodative conditions to 2024 (and the other central banks are in concert with that timeline - a race to zero in their respective fiat currencies), and probably yield curve control thereafter (because of our unbalanced risks). So I expect general liquidity to continue to be extraordinary (as we follow the longer term paths of Weimar/Argentina, where debt can be only repaid thru reflation, or dimished purchasing power of the currency used to pay back the debt). To put into perspective, we tried to unwind the fed’s balance sheet in 2013, but had to do a course correct as the market threw a tantrum, and again in 2018. The fed’s balance sheet in 2013, 2018, and today was 3 Trillion, 4T and 7.4T, respectively. Add the trillion dollar annual deficit the treasury will run - putting us deeper in the hole and making it more impossible for us to get out conventionally.

Employment is a distorted signal right now. In the past, it was (and will again be) a factor for liquidity demand, impacting the amount of card supply. But in our situation, we have a moratorium to pay rent and student loans, receive expanded unemployment and stimulus checks, and business loan forgiveness. There is suppressed demand for liquidity in a time where the system is flooded for liquidity. At the more intermediate term, our employment rate has improved, but we still have tons of slack from an elevated rate and lower labor force participation. We have a long way to go to bring us back to full employment, so the fed will continue to be accommodative, and possibly resort to yield curve control (which suppresses the real yields not inflation), once the stimulus sugar highs wear off. This is also supporting card prices.

But will a market correction have a significant adverse affect on vintage card prices? The market has experienced significant market multiple expansion since 2018 - all the way to 2000 dot com bubble levels. We can be in a flat and skinny scenario, where the stock market stalls as the earnings grow into its valuation, but the conditions for card prices (and assets) remain supportive as we continue to transfer private debt into public debt, run hot on inflation with suppressed real yields.

I’m not saying we will not correct in a stock market correction. There is too much speculation right now in this card market not not have “beta” with the equity markets. But the extent of the impact is more micro within the card market (ie prewar will have less beta than modern due to the difference in magnitude of their price increases and the marketplace players are simply different - modern is more “hot” money). I do believe certain prewar card prices have transitioned into new levels for the reasons above, which will prove to be more stable than we would expect if we have a small correction in the market. That said I’m taking this extraordinary demand and liquidity to reposition my collection even more so to key players that would retain liquidity and value over the longer term. By the end of this, I’ll probably just end up owning nothing but Cobbs and Ruths.

-biased viewpoints from a HODL(er)

my core view agrees with you- which is why I said the rate move is only in anticipation of inflation. I don't think we get it in any significance. I am an MMTer. And also a HODLer. but that said, most of the market believes that deficits cause inflation so rates can continue up faster, and stocks might sell-off sharply because of it.

nice summary...and yes...cobbs and ruths are the path i've chosen!!!

lmfao

I loved reading this, sport on, I’m nowhere close to as intelligent or have near the eloquence in writing skills. I’m just a common blue collar guy who has been buying and holding only Cobb, Ruth, Mantle, Jackie, Mays, Clemente, and Aaron only for the past few years...this will not change.

Btw what is HODL(er) stand for?
Thanks

A short personal story about card price appreciation: I consigned to a well-known AH a PSA RC of Rickie Henderson for a recent auction. I was told it should fetch about $1,000, which what I sort of figured given recent sales of the card at the time. It sold for $1,100, and I was a happy boy.
Fast forward 3 months to the present and Rickie is all over Ebay at between $3,000 -3800. And we all know there are a bazillion Rickeys out there. Good Grief.
I have a couple in for grading at PSA which will probably make their way back to me when the Mars Rover completes its mission and Rickies are worth $25.

John, How do you think I felt selling a Jordan rookie in PSA 9 for a consignor for 16k and being happy with the sale...

...at the time.

Hold.
It’s Reddit/Wall Street Bets lingo for holding onto an investment.

It's from crypto, not wsb. Well that's where it originated any way.

You should feel fine if it went for that it was worth at the time. Obviously we'd all take any card back that was sold more than a month or so ago at today's prices. But I certainly wouldn't blame the AH that sold it just because the market changed.

I appreciate that and of course rationally I know that, but still when people rely on you to maximize their return it's hard not to second guess yourself.

Hold On For Dear Life.

its crypto lingo

Ahh.. thanks

Your job is to maximize a sellers return once they have decided to sell, nobody can expect you to predict the future.

Yep but (and I know you know this) your part in "maximizing their return" doesn't spill over into helping them time the market.

Your conscience about it speaks very highly of your character though

Scott, I feel slightly nauseous considering what it would go for today. A '33 Goudey Ruth #53 on REA PSA 5 with the auction now in extending bidding was $55K last time I checked. That must be a record for the grade.

If you're talking about the SGC 5 ending tonight it's at 90k right now.

I sold two lebron chrome 2003 rookies psa 10 66 k for both ,,a 24 year old kid bought them ,,i guess the market stinks ,,,

the better question is where does a 24 year old get 66K from? He either works in Finance or his father must have deep pockets :D

maybe work in tech,
prime yrs for tech workers are fresh grad -30
by the time reaches 40s - once got laid off, pretty much done

those new to the industry get a lot of stock options, maybe they use the stocks to buy cards

maybe thy mine bitcoin?

That too

this is the only part I understood...and generally agree with. I am holding onto a list of players longer than that (and across eras and four sports) but not by much. The rest I am gradually selling or trading for the ones on the list.

Anyone notice the 1933G Ruths in the REA auction? That's some real money.

These kids are flippers i never asked its none of my business,,they have more money then god ,,he deals in hight end stuff,,then again Greenwich ct is wealthy..

I sold
 

Three 1981 topps basketball sets $660 for all i reached out to buy them back $1200 firm its insane lol

A '54 Topps Jackie Robinson PSA 1 sold two weeks ago on eBay for $315. Huh?

that seems like a pretty decent price for a "slice" of history?
Did it double in about 3 months or so? I think the inventory is down on Jackie.

dealers typically buy the card and immediately relist it for double. Then sell it when and for what they can for a profit. That's been the business model it seems for years and the prices have just caught up.

Now, You have dealers buying cards like 52 Jackie for 13K and then relisting for 80K. Add "private bidders" to the shadiest Curt Shilling F in the world and this is what we get. It's a supply and demand issue I believe, though I've never been good at economics:) I'm enjoying the explosion and I'll enjoy the decline just as much. I always liked Jackie

Wife and I own (US Bank too) a condo in Palm Springs to retire to and rent it out over the winter months to help pay mortgage and HOA's.
A mid 20's couple Guy/Gal from Seattle rented it for 2 1/2 months this last Nov-Jan at 4K a month to escape the WA winter blues.
Tech kids, very nice, ran the sheets in the washer and dryer when they left and made note that the second bedroom toilet fluid valve was a slow filler.

Liked them a lot and they want to come back same time next year.
No idea if they like cards, but young professionals who aren't getting married before 30, aren't taking out mortgages, aren't sticking all their dough in cars, don't have kids....well they've got plenty of income to 'enjoy' their lifestyles.

Didn't ask if they liked sportscards, but I think this forum discounts plenty of regular people who love sports, make 45k - 145k, and want to own some cool cards of their sporting icons.

I mean, it's not as if they're blowing it on settees and X (no concerts no raves) so why not?

If you go to you tube
 

Search card flippers you will see what goes on .These kids drive terrible cars live at home.But no problem spending 200 k at shows ,,look up coleman cards sashat just to start .And it goes on and on ,,

I know something like the '54 Jackie is not going to make headline news, but I'm relatively small time in comparison to some on this board. I remember when something like that would have gone for $75 or less. I guess the rising tide lifts all boats. No, not exorbitant perhaps for that card, but just surprising to me.

$315 is crazy money for that card. Like you, I remember that as a $75 card not long ago. You're talking about a nearly fourfold rise.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Convo I had last week with a vendor at my farmer's market:

Me: Can I buy a pack of strawberries. (hand the man $20 bill)
Vendor: No its $24 (there are no price signs).
Me: I come here every week, I've always paid $20.
Vendor: That was 2 weeks ago.....

Everything Jackie is seemingly doubling every few weeks. I'm lucky enough that I got into the 48 Leaf, 49 Bowman, and 50 Bowman years ago, but had put off the 52 and 53 for a while to complete my run. Mid-grade 53s are going for $2,000 plus, with each "sale" going higher than the next. 52s are in the stratosphere. It's great to have the paper gains, but as a collector, its hard to stomach the fact that cards on a want list have 8-10x over the last 6 months or so.

Even guys like Clemente, Koufax, etc. are doubling in the 5-7 range. I don't know how long this will last, but its amazing to see the multiples of value on assets that essentially hadnt moved in the past 5-10 years.

And as Jackie and Satchell climb, guys like Dandridge are on their way. This card could be had for $100-$200 for years (got a two for maybe $110 about 5 years ago).. and think was still selling for about $300-$400 as recently as late last year.

This spike seemed somewhat predictable given MLB's recent announcement, and this card was clearly undervalued, but a pretty dramatic increase nonetheless.

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...e?itemid=76112

Many of the vintage card has been stall and undervalue. Finally getting some love with price move and now it's a bubble. I just think we're getting up to the price where it should be at.

It's the 1955 superstars that are killing me. A year ago you could pick up Jackie, Hank, Willie or Ted in VG/EX for under $200.

I have my 55's in PSA 6 and bought up all of the HOFers in 2015/16. Aaron was $252, Williams was $304, Jackie was $343, and Willie was $382.

It seems like Williams is the only one that hasn't really moved recently. But Willie always seemed to be more expensive because it was a high number. Aaron was a rung below and it is now hanging pretty will with the other stars.