Wife and I own (US Bank too) a condo in Palm Springs to retire to and rent it out over the winter months to help pay mortgage and HOA's.
A mid 20's couple Guy/Gal from Seattle rented it for 2 1/2 months this last Nov-Jan at 4K a month to escape the WA winter blues.
Tech kids, very nice, ran the sheets in the washer and dryer when they left and made note that the second bedroom toilet fluid valve was a slow filler.

Liked them a lot and they want to come back same time next year.
No idea if they like cards, but young professionals who aren't getting married before 30, aren't taking out mortgages, aren't sticking all their dough in cars, don't have kids....well they've got plenty of income to 'enjoy' their lifestyles.

Didn't ask if they liked sportscards, but I think this forum discounts plenty of regular people who love sports, make 45k - 145k, and want to own some cool cards of their sporting icons.

I mean, it's not as if they're blowing it on settees and X (no concerts no raves) so why not?

If you go to you tube
 

Search card flippers you will see what goes on .These kids drive terrible cars live at home.But no problem spending 200 k at shows ,,look up coleman cards sashat just to start .And it goes on and on ,,

I know something like the '54 Jackie is not going to make headline news, but I'm relatively small time in comparison to some on this board. I remember when something like that would have gone for $75 or less. I guess the rising tide lifts all boats. No, not exorbitant perhaps for that card, but just surprising to me.

$315 is crazy money for that card. Like you, I remember that as a $75 card not long ago. You're talking about a nearly fourfold rise.

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Convo I had last week with a vendor at my farmer's market:

Me: Can I buy a pack of strawberries. (hand the man $20 bill)
Vendor: No its $24 (there are no price signs).
Me: I come here every week, I've always paid $20.
Vendor: That was 2 weeks ago.....

Everything Jackie is seemingly doubling every few weeks. I'm lucky enough that I got into the 48 Leaf, 49 Bowman, and 50 Bowman years ago, but had put off the 52 and 53 for a while to complete my run. Mid-grade 53s are going for $2,000 plus, with each "sale" going higher than the next. 52s are in the stratosphere. It's great to have the paper gains, but as a collector, its hard to stomach the fact that cards on a want list have 8-10x over the last 6 months or so.

Even guys like Clemente, Koufax, etc. are doubling in the 5-7 range. I don't know how long this will last, but its amazing to see the multiples of value on assets that essentially hadnt moved in the past 5-10 years.

And as Jackie and Satchell climb, guys like Dandridge are on their way. This card could be had for $100-$200 for years (got a two for maybe $110 about 5 years ago).. and think was still selling for about $300-$400 as recently as late last year.

This spike seemed somewhat predictable given MLB's recent announcement, and this card was clearly undervalued, but a pretty dramatic increase nonetheless.

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...e?itemid=76112

Many of the vintage card has been stall and undervalue. Finally getting some love with price move and now it's a bubble. I just think we're getting up to the price where it should be at.

It's the 1955 superstars that are killing me. A year ago you could pick up Jackie, Hank, Willie or Ted in VG/EX for under $200.

I have my 55's in PSA 6 and bought up all of the HOFers in 2015/16. Aaron was $252, Williams was $304, Jackie was $343, and Willie was $382.

It seems like Williams is the only one that hasn't really moved recently. But Willie always seemed to be more expensive because it was a high number. Aaron was a rung below and it is now hanging pretty will with the other stars.

Looks like I need a different hobby. :(

It is such a conundrum. I know I could sell right now and likely quadruple my money on what I have in my collection. Yet even that amount would not be life changing (i.e. pay off mortgage or retire) and so I think I would regret it. I sure would miss them and the room I have them displayed in would be a lonely and depressing place.

This may be easy for me to say as I am not in that situation, but if my collection were worth life changing money I believe I would sell at this time.

Preach on! I am living that as well. At the moment, I am thinking about the Killebrew rookie, and I'm not looking for better than VG to VGEX.

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And if you remember 2015/16 was a peak as well, mainly for HOF rookies but you saw carry over to later issues as well.

Scott I'm gathering prices fell after 2016? I wasn't back in the hobby yet.

Some of the really hot cards if I remember correctly were Rose, Koufax, Clemente rookies, and it had an effect on many others.

I feel like prices softened, especially on Roses, but they never returned to pre-summer 2016 levels... and from maybe 2017 on continually climbed upward, beyond those 2016 peak levels, even pre-2020-21 booms.

I would actually maintain you saw an abrupt return to fall 2015 levels in late summer/fall 2016. Things like PSA 8 Clemente rookie going for over 200k and then dropping back down to 40-50k etc.

what happened then...was a bit different than whats happening now...that's for sure!!!!

I am a bit concerned that the sale of PSA/Goldin to many of the same players has the potential for major damage to the hobby!

Me too Pete....

Scott that $200,000 Sale on the Clemente RC was Total BS just like PWCC last week with its $180,000 PSA 10 Henderson Not Real Value In my book neither.

To me that was the start, the Henderson rookie and the 52 Bowman Sgc 7 Mickey that sold for over $40k pwcc....now the push.

I share your concern. An unregulated market where you can control perception of value and the outlet to realize that value seems worrying.

Agreed. This is what happens in an unregulated market. At best, it’s a horrible optic. At worst...woah Nellie, look out.

We are not in disagreement about 2016 or now.

The average price for a '57 Aaron in a PSA 6 right now on their Auction Prices Realized site is $800. :eek:

I could not agree more and this should be the thing that most concerns us all. In a regulated market, the same people owning a grading company and an auction house would never be allowed to happen. As perfectly said: at best, terrible optics and the parties should know better— but they know there’s zero regulation so what do they care, they can print money now. And because some of them like cards we’re supposed to shut off our minds and look away.

Looks like one of the celebrity PSA owners who is also a Goldin owner was bidding PSA cards to the moon at Goldin, then brandishing them on social media. At best, not sensitive to the perception of impropriety.

It also bums me out that this could further the demise of set building. It seems like the direction pretty much every set is headed is flat commons and HOFers off to the races. The days of entry level vintage sets (even low grade) that can be built on a modest budget seem to be behind us.

I'm (eventually) going to try and build a 52 topps set. At this rate I should be done in about 60 years give or take

True that


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Digging back old post. price has came down from the peak, who is buying this dip?

ive never stopped buying...been buying more than ever last 2 years or so. So Im buying the dip!

If you are looking at the very best cards for their grade prices have not come down...in my experiences. Average or lower end, maybe.
.

What percentage of collectors paying $$crazy$$ for cards today were doing this 4 years ago?

IMO, it’s shill bidding on EBay. A seller bids his item up higher than it would’ve gone for, then the next guy sells same card and says that a comp value/worth. In some cases I think the seller who does the shill bidding wins his own card under a different username. Sometimes I see the same card come up for sale that within a week and sometimes it’s same seller or the supposed buyer who just won it.

I think there will be a nice correction soon. Let’s get back to pre Feb 2021 vintage numbers and I’ll be happy.

I'm buying.

You think shill bidding on ebay is what is responsible for the market growth since last December? As in you actually believe that it's the primary factor driving prices across the entire market?

I am a Ruth and Jackson guy.

I do not see any dips.

Plus the cards from the 20’s for Ruth that used to be fairly priced or under valued are escalating in prices and keeps going up auction after auction.

I think it would take a full blown collapse of the economy for Ruth prices to fall. Ruth cards from his playing days and the 52 Mantle seem pretty impervious to most of the market swings we've seen over the past couple years.

In March a PSA 4 52T Mantle sold for $148,000. The market right now is about half of that. That card has gone down from its peak just like every other one has.

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An SGC 4 just sold for 100k at Heritage. There's lots of different data points out there and these days different cards in the same grade, and in different grading companies, can sell for very wildly different amounts based on the card. So it makes it very hard if not impossible to generalize about the market. I keep hoping for card prices to come down across the board, yet it seems prices just keep escalating overall for the best stuff.

Yeah these clowns have some ridiculous theories. No ridiculous conspiracy they don’t run to the Max on. They get a colonel of truth and push it to absurd extremes. Bunch of bitter jerks screaming at the kids to get off their damn lawn.

Do not expect a collapse but very surprised the prices keep goin up

last night Love of the Game Auction a 1917 CM Babe Ruth PSA 1 went for $111K and

It was just a few months ago a SGC 2 sold for around $120k I do not recall which auction house

On the cards I was watching, LOTG prices crushed it last night (that CM Ruth was very pretty for grade). And prices in Heritage the auction before were silly high. Prices on big boy cards, especially old and rarer (as opposed to 1950+ cards that are as common as the last name Smith), just seem to go up and up.

I don't really follow the market for Ruth cards so I looked up this 17CM Ruth on the PSA auction site. It is obviously a rare card so not many sales. I see a PSA 2 sold in 2018 for $66,000 so the price has basically doubled in the last 3 years.

Does that sound right for Ruth cards? I don't want to read too much into a few sales of a very limited card but it doesn't seem like this one got much of a runup.

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I was in on the CM Ruth at the 80k level, but did not feel comfortable when it got higher. Seems like a big jump based on the most recent data comps available, and to me it's not like Babe won an MVP or anything to make it spike that hard. Was a pretty "1" though and congrats to whoever now owns it.

I don't agree with calling some cards "big boy" cards— that sounds kinda douchey to be really blunt. One person's "big boy" card is to someone else a card they don't give a shit about. It's all personal choice what one collects.

I would agree with this. As someone who collects mainly 50's baseball cards,
I'd sell that Ruth in a heartbeat to buy the common stuff.

At the risk of being even more douchey, there are cards that are more expensive, or desired, than others - fact. I dont know what to call these cards, so I called them big boy because in my business-world, large/major deals are sometimes referred to as big boy deals. I am not talking about what someone collects- collect what you want. This thread is talking about the prices of cards in today's market. My point, which I think was obvious, regardless of what I call them, is that the Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, Jacksons, pre war blue-chip (another subjective term) HOFrs from blue chip or iconic pre war sets are going up, have gone up since April, and show no signs of stopping.

We might see what happens if three things occur at the same time: the Fed raising rates, a prolonged lockout, and a renewed pandemic. Not sure even Babe Ruth can beat that.

Correct thx robert

Yes Alan a PSA 2 sold for $66k several years ago and yet a 1 just sold for $111k. If you google the various types of Ruth cards you will see the price escalation. Even on the cards from 1921-1929 that used to be undervalued or under appreciated. But now with the other cards being priced out of most collectors hands these other Ruth cards are starting to really jump in their prices also.

Generally speaking with are seeing the Ruth’s, Jackson, and the likes cards going for up to 3 times the price from just a few years ago. And it does not look it will stop

407. Hit By Q-Pid’s Arrow
The newfound desire for cards with qualifiers in the current boom market, as they are now regularly selling for much larger sums than ever before.

I live around the margins of collecting, constantly picking up really nice (to me) cards that often have qualifiers attached. Man, have things changed. The price rocket of OC cards has travelled to another galaxy, and off-centered all-time greats have reached ridiculous highs, and the asking prices continue to surge. They used to be had cheaply...and those days are long gone. Yowza!!!!

Very good point and I love your of list of collectorisms

I'm not sure Collins-McCarthy is a good barometer of anything because desirable players are seldom offered. Cards like that move independently of 'market' forces; they are high on want lists.

As I mentioned in the 'down prices' thread, I track Exhibit cards (for obvious reasons) and the 1920s superstars are moving up in every auction, even in lower grades. HA sold a low grade 1925 Gehrig for $105,000, an unthinkable price a few years ago. Ruth is the king, as befits the GOAT. At this point any solo 1920s Exhibit, even a 1-2 quality card, is a $2,000+ item, more for a tough issue. I would guesstimate that a 1923 Ruth in roughest grade would sell for $5,000+. The real mover lately has been Cobb. He always lagged Ruth and Gehrig by a substantial margin but his cards are going into four figures now. Johnson cards have been stealthily gaining price to the point where you are looking at four figures for a mid-grade card. Next up I would think would be Speaker, Hornsby and Alexander. Those are in the $400-$600 range now in mid-grade. I'd probably stock up on lower grade but presentable examples of those (if you can find them); if things roll on they should be good for a 50%-100% pop. Eddie Collins cards are criminally low. I was sorely tempted to chase the 1925 last night but I chased the E254 instead; gotta love the Horner portraits on those cards.

An interesting story has been the RCs in the Exhibit sets, besides Gehrig. Grove's PC Back is commanding some serious respect now ($8400 in a 5 last night) as is Foxx's PC Back. I expect them to be at $10K in the next 2-5 years.

Another card that has moved up is the Exhibit Jackie Robinson. The principal issue there has been trying to ID which year it debuted. I know for sure it was in the 1950 run because I've seen the checklist card for that year. Not sure before that, but it is an early card. LOTG closed a lot of 2 at $720, raw. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit the level of the Paige card.

All assumptions are premised on the economy not crapping the bed...

A 3x increase over the last 3 years is probably average for a baseball card. For instance, Card Ladder's baseball index has gone from 4k to 14k in the last two years, which is 3.5x.

I would guess that pre war cards have had a steadier climb than post war and modern, and with so few sales transactions to look at you didn't really see a spike and dip the first half of the year. And it looks to me like all blue chippers are staying strong, from whatever era.





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Great info and tracking

Thanks for sharing

Thanks, Jeff. One thing I've observed in tracking these cards obsessively is what i now think of as a tsunami effect on these cards. Just like the sea pulling back before the tidal wave slams into you, if you run a regular and well-defined search for these cards on eBay you can see the supply of cards dry up just as prices surge. My searches for certain cards lately have been coming up with nothing in any price or format. Lots of commons but none of the big stars, not even 'museum' listings. That, plus the number of collectors who come around asking about buying my collection; when that happens I know there is a moving market out there.

Agree. If you are using that reference, is it not safe to assume that it's pointed at how valuable a card is? If I could afford some of those cards, the last thing I would be offended by is how other collectors refer to them.

I think the market overall has corrected on some cards / types of cards, but not everything has sunk back to former lows, of course. I have some midgrade postwar HOF slabs now that are still selling for 3x or more what I paid for them in say, 2016 or 2017.

qualifiers
 

I used to think that qualifiers dropped the value of a card about 2 full grades.
So, example, a PSA8 Miscut of a 1960 Mantle All-Star would be valued like a regular PSA6. Is that no longer the case?

"Douchey" is not how I'd describe your posts, Ryan. You appear to be very passionate about your collecting and appear to have the money to pursue it your way. Good on ya. As for what to call a deal that you feel is significant, yeah, that's a real conundrum. Whether you characterize a deal by cost or by the rarity of the cards involved, there is always going to be someone who will see it as bragging when you talk about it. People definitely do not like "big boy" or "advanced" or "elite" or any other label that characterizes a transaction by magnitude, but that's not something we are ever going to get past. Schadenfreude and envy are just part of the make-up of our species. Way I see it, you do your thing, I do mine, and we all let each other collect the way we want to and try to come together as a community...of nitwits who play with childrens' toys and drive our non-collecting mates crazy with our excessive, obsessive focus. My main reaction when I see cards breaking records and soaring into the fine art price level is that maybe, just maybe, my wife won't think I am quite as big an idiot for having a SDB full of old cardboard toys.

I appreciate that Adam.

I got one for that, too:

228. Registry Disparity
The mathematical rule of thumb that a card with a qualifier is equal to a straight graded card two whole numbers lower.

See also: The Binary Conundrum - owning a graded card with a qualifier, but since the ‘defect’ is so minor, it definitely doesn’t merit having a two-grades-lower drop in value.

---

It's definitely just a (silly?) 'rule of thumb' with not a lot behind it. When I chat up someone with a huge BIN price on an off-centered card, and see if they'll adjust their price for the 'two-grades-lower' theory, they almost always want nothing to do with it. Some of them I wholeheartedly agree with (because the cards look great), but I know the others will never sell the cards for anywhere near their asking prices.

It's never been a hard rule, just a starting point. If you track auction prices and build a model, you'll find that each qualifier ultimately has a different effect on pricing. Also, it's location on the card matters as well. A miscut card is by far the most aggressive drop in value. It can often sell for 3 full grades below its non qualified grade. An OC qualifier can go for 1, 2, or 3 grades below. It often depends more on the set and how difficult those cards are to find centered in general. A card with a stain can sell between 1 or 2 grades below depending on the stain and where it's located and how severe it is. Gum stains are worse than wax stains since wax stains are often easy to remove and gum stains aren't. Also, some stains can easily be removed just with water, others can't. This all has an effect on pricing. Marked cards, same thing. Is there ink on the front or the back? And how big is the ink mark or writing? I've seen cards with mk qualifiers where you can't even find the marking. So long story short, it depends. But a miscut card is by far the worst qualifier in terms of resale value. That will kill you every time. It's almost always a full grade less in value than even an OC designation.

You left out the relevant part of that sale though. It wasn't just some random PSA 4. It was an extremely well-centered PSA 4, which for this particular card, easily doubles it's value over an off-centered 4. See pic below of the card you're referring to.

Worth noting is that this sale was from Goldin on 3/7. However, in that exact same auction, ending on the same day was a decently centered PSA 5 that sold for $116k, and a PSA 8 that sold for $1,353,000. That exact same PSA 8 (cert #09044593) which fetched $1.3M in the same auction as the PSA 4 just sold last month at Goldin for $2,029,500, a profit of nearly $700k in less than 8 months.

If that PSA 4 were to be relisted today, it probably sells for more than $150k.

always learning
 

Thanks Darren - I appreciate your sharing your experiences with sellers and the two grades "myth".

So true. Grades aren't created equal. Might be a technical 4 but looks nicer than many grades higher.

Yes that card had decent centering, but so did the one that sold for $75k after that. It is not a card that would go for anywhere near 200% VCP, there are cards like that out there but that is not one of them.

My best guess is 2 guys got a bad case of FOMO and massively outbid on that card. It's an example of what was happening 9 months ago.

The PSA 8 pricing is interesting. There wasn't a dip on that card, although the $1.3m sale in March was less than a $1.6m sale in January which is unusual, since the market was climbing steadily from December through March. And all those cards look like really strong 8's.

I think it is hard to generalize from just a few sales. I have been tracking 100 centered Mantle cards for the last 3 years. I have posted about it before and don't want to get into the weeds of that on this thread, but if you are interested just PM me your email and we can talk further about it.

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1 or 2 sales here and there can certainly create illusions with respect to the braoder market. And there are so many factors that can cause any one card to be worth considerably more or less than other "comps". I'm a statistician, so I'd love to look at the data if you've been tracking 100 Mantles. I'll send you a PM.

To grade is human.