I don't know too many players who hit 40 plus homers by accident. He went to college for 4 years and made his debut at 24 years old. When people say "two words" it's always meant to be some kind of caution. I don't see a caution in a 25 year old guy who hits 40 homers, gets on base and scores runs. Saying Buhner level power output is pretty broad and that could apply to anyone who hits home runs but it's the combination of getting on base and scoring runs that make up Judge's game.

40 HR's by accident? When did I ever say that? I compared him to a guy who hit 40 home runs 3 times. Scoring runs is an ability that has almost nothing to do with the player scoring them. Yes a great base runner may add a couple runs per year over an average one, and a home run hitter obviously scores himself, but runs scored is basically an indicator of how good your teammates are.

But let's pretend I actually did say he's hitting 40 by accident. I DO know a number of players who did just that. Rico Petrocelli, Davey Johnson, Andre Dawson, Adrian Beltre, Roger Maris, and that's leaving off steroid suspects like Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzalez.

Note that a lot of these guys had power, but the difference between their best season and their second best season is HUGE, so I say it was an "accident," or a fluke.

Now, Scott- I always had hoped I would never see any steroid allegations or rumors linked to Luis, who led the league in Homers here in Columbus, GA while in the minors. I believe he may have 'charged something up' late in his career, but I thought that was what caused his wife to have triplets, not him to hit 57 dingers in a hot, very hitter-friendly park...of course, I could be wrong...Q: Did Boggs and Campaneris juice in their one big year?

...or did it just an anomaly?

big difference when your one big year is 22 or 24 versus 57. I did also only label him a suspect!

Boggs put on a home run hitting show during batting practice that was amazing. He chose not to hit home runs during games to keep his average as high as possible.

If there was a way of proving it there is not a single player in the last 60 years I would bet any money on as being completely clean of PEDs during their carrier.

Boggs may have been completely clean, but can you say the same for all the chickens he consumed. Just fowl play, carry on.

I never said my all time favorite player was clean. As someone with experience in farming I can 100% guarantee the chickens are pumped full of steroids and/or antibiotics.

That used to drive me insane about Boggs, knowing he was damn well capable of hitting for power and cutting down on his swing for the sake of his BA. My guess, of course pure speculation, is that by today's metrics he would have been viewed as a better ballplayer had he not done that.

Ben- I've heard that story about Boggs' pre-game home run hitting before, but never had anyone say that they actually saw it. Did you?

I watched Boggs take BP while he was with the Yankees. Back then that was part of the experience of going to the game. I don't remember him hitting them any more than anyone else. The only real distinct BP memory I have is when Barry Bonds came to the stadium for inter-league play. He hit some over the bleachers back then that hit off the back wall. I'd never seen that before.

That depends on when you did it:


Campaneris hit 22 in 1970 ; 8 in 1972 ;

never more than 6 in his other 17 years.

22 was a jump of 275% over his next highest year of 8.



Boggs hit 24 in 1987 ; 11 in 1994 ;

never more than 8 in his other 16 years.

24 was a jump of 218% over his next highest of 11.



Gonzo's totals in Arizona were:

26,31,57,28,26,17,24, & 15

57 was a jump of 183% from his next highest of 31.


So, Gonzalez's 57, while certainly not in line with his normal yearly output, was proportionally closer to that than either of the others.

As to whether or not he juiced...I don't know...I'm just laying out the case for the possibility that there were statistical anomalies.


.

I was lucky enough to see him take batting practice over 50 times easily, probably closer to 100 times. From around 1987 till he retired I went to almost every game he played in Minnesota(Twins). I always got there so I was one of the first in so I could watch BP. That was the closest stadium for me at only 600 miles round trip.

To get Aaron Judge into the post I went to my first game in many many years this year to hopefully watch Judge play against the Twins and he did not play that day.:(

It was not that he hit more and he definitely did not hit them farther than others. It was how he hit them. It has been almost 20 years so I can't remember if it was left to right or right to left so my example might be backwards. After he would hit several line drives all over the field he would always end BP by hitting one to left, then left center, then center, then right center, and then right field on consecutive pitches.

If nothing else he has shown some mental resilience in apparently not let a devastating slump ruin him. Jay Buhner was a pretty good ballplayer, nothing wrong with ending up like him or a little better if that's what happens. It's odd, to me anyhow, that Judge has tons of walks but also tons of Ks. Maybe it's not that odd.

Eff him hard I say lol.

http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/ma...l-is-forgiven/

Thanks for the link Peter I had not seen that article. I like my players for what they did on the field and couldn't care less what they did off it.

I have always found BA and OBP impress me way more than HRs. Like the old saying goes "chicks love the long ball", well I am not a chick.:eek::D

To get this thread back on track Mr Judge has a very good chance with 44 HRs to get 5 more and tie for the all time rookie HR record. The Yanks have 12 more games and its not like they are playing tough teams in those 12 games.

That would be quite a comeback from that devastating slump. I agree with Ron Darling that he was opening his front side too early. When you do that, the bat lags behind and drags through the strike zone. Watching him hit numbers 42 and 43, it seems he's back on the beam. At least I hope so--great kid, a real credit to the game!

Regards,

Larry

Aaron Judge hit another HR today so he is down to needing 4 more to tie for the rookie HR record. I wish him the best of luck in doing it.:)

+1!!!!!!!!!

Says the guy with the awesome GU Judge bat.:)

I also hope he is able to achieve this. Would be great for baseball, and for those who spent big bucks on some of his cards. :D

Judge is on fire!!! 2 for 2 with HR #46 tonight.:D

so are the contingents taking turns depending on whether judge is hot or not? :) when he was cold the other side was counting down his ba to the mendoza line with daily updates...now that he's getting hot again it's all silence on that side and the pro-judge crowd is chirping!

just remember baseball seasons are long, there are bound to be ups and downs and small sample size. no point following the numbers with a microscope.

It is near the end of the season and he has a really good chance of tying or breaking the all time rookie home run record. I believe that is worth daily updates.:)

For me it is just fun to watch because I do not own a single Aaron Judge item.

Yes ups and downs are the norm but his ups and downs have been on the extreme side I think, thus the unusual interest. Particularly in a 25 year old rookie who had a relatively unspectacular minor league career.

2 more today!!! Judge only needs 1 more to tie the rookie HR record. With 7 more games he has a great chance to break the record.

Good to hear! Been crazy busy lately and haven't much of a chance to follow along with any sports.

With 7 games left, I say he breaks it, hopefully.

Not sure where people think I fall on this spectrum, but I think the power is obviously for real and that he will be an occasional all-star (maybe more than occasional since he's in NY) I don't think he's the next Yankee immortal.

Closing out with his best power month; love watching this kid play, love the work ethic— and also love how he handles himself with the media, with maturity and poise. His homers are such missiles, they make me smile like a kid again. Ripping boxes with my family looking for Judges this year has been priceless.

It's too bad there isn't enough room for the Yankees to catch Boston. If they overtook the East I think Judge had to have been the MVP.

and there it goes!!

and there goes #50...congrats Aaron!!!!

and there went #50!!!

Congrats to Aaron! What an amazing season.

Yea this has been a lot of fun to watch. I can't wait to see what he does in the playoffs.

Absolutely!!! A great achievement for a great kid! I can't see him winning the MVP, however, after essentially having gone awol for a month and a half.

Best regards,

Larry

Nope, but ROY and likely top 3 MVP is not bad for a guy I was thinking I was being overly optimistic by hoping he might turn into the next Jay Buhner or Richie Sexson about a 1/2 year ago.

So is this is a good time to grade his auto numbered cards?

If they are very high grade and you are selling it is.

...and so goes the only legit (IMO) home run record Mark McGwire ever held.

I think he finishes second behind Altuve in MVP. Very impressive how he turned it around after an epic slump, and indeed how he ascended after a long and unspectacular minor league career. A great story.

Give it about a year, and noone will remember any 'epic' slump. Its not a slump if you end up with 50 homers ...its just called a normal baseball season.

Im sure there are lots of .285 35 homer and 100+ rbi seaons of players were had horrible slumps in that year. Noone will remember that. 50 homers in not a full season...c'mon.

I would put him behind Altuve and Ramirez, two great seasons on the two teams fighting for the best record. I can't get over Judge's two month slump. The Yankees had a better record during that slump than the rest of the season. That doesn't say most valuable to me.

Altuve is having a great year but I'm not sure he's the most valuable player. The Astros are loaded and while he's having the best year among them, the team is stacked.

I feel the same way about Ramirez. Is he having that much better of a year than Lindor that he would be top 3 and Lindor wouldn't?

But on the Yankees it was all Judge for the entire first half of the season. I don't believe they would have clinched a wild card spot without Judge. They had a better winning percentage in the second half but scored 120 less runs while Judge slumped. That to me shows how important his performance is to the team.

This is not true. In 1995 Albert Belle hit 50 Hrs in 143 games .317/.401/.690 leading the league in runs, doubles, HRs, RBIs, slugging and total bases, but lost the MVP to Mo Vaughn who had much worse stats. WAR Belle 6.9 to Vaughn 4.3. OPS+ Belle 177 to Vaughn 144.

The problem was that Belle went on a tear the last two months of the season, hitting 31 of his 50 Hrs. At the end of July the Indians were in first place by 17 games. Vaughn had great clutch stats and tied Belle in RBIs. Belle was the better player and had the better season, but he did his damage when it didn't matter. Vaughn was more valuable. People will remember, especially if Judge does not win MVP.

That right there is why he isn't the MVP. He let his team down in the second half. Had he played well in the second half would the Yankees have to settle for a wild card playoff game (I know it isn't set in stone yet, but they are 4 games back still)?

Altuve was consistent for his team all year long.

Altuve 1st half: .347ba/.417obp/.551slg/.968ops
Alutve 2nd half: .349ba/.409obp/.559slg/.968ops

Judge 1st half: .329ba/.448obp/.691slg/1.139ops
Judge 2nd half: .221ba/.379obp/.527slg/.906ops

First half Judge was the MVP for the Yankees, but the second half he was a detriment to the team just coming back for the final month.

I feel like its a chicken or the egg situation. Had Judge not played so well in the first half the Yankees might not have had a second half to play for. But even in his slump it was only really a slump for him. I mean the average is unsightly but the OPS and slugging, during his worst moments of the season, nearly match Altuve's peak.

Ramirez has a WAR of 6.5 to 5.3 for Lindor. OPS+ 143 to 118. Ramirez is having a huge September .431/.467/1.000 at a time when Indians have gone 29-2 and went from hoping to make the playoffs to best record in the league. He is the true MVP despite not having the WAR of Altuve or OPS+ of Judge or Trout.

On the other hand Judge was small when the Yankees were cementing themselves in the first wild card. I disagree with you, I don't think the Yankees are 10 games worse without Judge. I think they are a wild card with or without him.

I think some of that disparity between Ramirez and Lindor comes down to Lindor's poor first half though. He's hitting 50 points higher in the second half and slugging over 100 points higher. He had a lot of ground to make up to get where he is.

I was not giving an opinion about MVP....i was saying that years from now when you look at stats you arent going to remember or think Judge had an 'epic' slump when you see his statistics. Basically its not an epic slump when you end up with those stats. An epic slump is like Fernando Rodney last year or Jack Armstrong years ago ....guys whos season total season was considered bad even though the first half was at an all star level.....the entire season for Judge was outstanding. It just cant be an epic slump if your season ends up elite

One has to love how the steady, calm, poised Aaron Judge let his play shift the public discussion. Earlier in the season, there were those trying to knock him, calling him Kevin Maas or Jeremy Lin. Now the debate has shifted to whether or not he is the MVP— as a rookie. It's worth hanging a lantern on what that sheer pivot says about the fine year this young man has put together.

Baseball is one heck of a hard game. Playing in the midst of the Category 5 media maelstrom that Judge has makes his carriage and performance all the more impressive to me.

I'm hard pressed to remember another instance when a veteran said it's an honor to play with a rookie; that says a great deal. “He went through it and just kept working,’’ Todd Frazier said on Monday. “That’s very hard to come back from, but that’s his mentality, his personality. It’s incredible, hitting 50, and for him to be as humble as he is, it’s an honor to play with him.”

You are manipulating what is said to try and fit it to your desire. What I was showing was the consistency of the player over the full season. That was Judge's full second half, not just his slump. Judge's slump in August do not "nearly match Altuve's peak" in July.

Altuve's peak month, July: .485ba/.523obp/.727slg/1.251ops/203sOPS
Judge's slump month, August: .185ba/.353obp/.326slg/.680ops/83sOPS

August was even Altuve's worst month and even just comparing those Judge doesn't "nearly match" Alutve:
August .304ba/.345obp/.520slg/.865ops/126sOPS

Now this isn't to say I don't think Judge is worthy of other accolades that he will receive for the season. It also doesn't mean that when Judge is on he is better than Altuve, he is. This just shows me that Judge is very streaky and to me wouldn't be the MVP.

I was talking about the numbers that you posted. The OPS, slugging, and OBP were near enough to each other that without looking at batting average it would be hard to tell one was struggling.

when you look back at the 2017 season, people will say that's the aaron judge year (sorry mik...giancarlo stanton). he did have a monster first half, the yankees weren't really poised to contend this year, he does lead everyone in WAR...he's the mvp.

conversely the astros were one of the world series favorites, altuve does play with a bunch other bad dudes who do professional baseball things very well...it's just easier when the opposing pitcher have to grind out every ab.

To whoever has been arguing Judge just had a typical season with ups and downs: not.

Nah...it becomes sample size. as long as you hit well enough for the 2nd half.. a month might as well be 3 days of slumping. Talk of any slump in 2017 for Judge is silly. Its like saying he went 0-4 yesterday so thats a slump... One good day of hitting negates many many bad days. If you fail 7 out of 10 times you are going to the HOF if career is long enough.

Also the fact that your best month of the 2nd half is the last month during the playoff race makes that month more important than any other 2nd half months. Yeah all the games count, but if you use that argument than all of his stats count too

The Astros and Yankees won the same number of games last season. The Astros were a slight favorite over the Rangers to win their division. The Yankees were a popular pick for the wild card. They are both meeting or slightly exceeding their expectations. This isn't some team picked for last place making a miracle run to the playoffs.

Altuve leads Judge in WAR 8.2 to 7.6. The Astros have been the better team after both won the same number of games. The real MVP should be the guy who has hit .415/.455/.915 the last 31 games leading his team to a 29-2 record.

1. Ramirez
2. Altuve
3. Judge

I don't know if that's exactly true. For example, SB Nation predicted the Yankees would finish 4th in the East, accurately predicted the Indians would win the Central, and had Houston finishing second in the West.

Only 1 staff member at ESPN out of 35 had the Yankees winning the East, but all 35 picked the Indians to win the Central and 21 out of 35 had the Astros winning the West.

It is not sample size when the two months after the end of the first half you hit .182/.346/.365. Judge has had a hot 2 weeks after a bad 2 months. Those 2 weeks are not important considering the Yankees already had the wild card wrapped up. It would be one thing if he led them to the division. However, his hot streak has come too late for it to matter.

This is a general statement and not directed at anyone in particular.

I get that the flood of data on baseball these days can provide some valuable insight, and it's always been a game that has loved its hallowed stats and records— yet it seems like some fans these days don't even need to watch the game and absorb all there is to absorb about it and the individual human players; they just need their stat sheets and calculators. It's a very dry and one-dimensional way to view the game, and risks missing a lot of pleasurable aspects.

I agree 100%. Once I said Bernie Williams was one of the most clutch hitters I've ever seen and someone laughed at me and put up some inane stat to show I was wrong, even though I watched the guy play every day. I was at those games and I knew when Bernie comes up, he's going to put us ahead. But some guy who probably only watched Bernie casually when his team played theirs told me I didn't know what I was talking about.

I think that's a bit of a false dichotomy, sure the stats are what people logically use in the context of an argument, but that doesn't mean the same folks aren't watching and enjoying the game as a true fan would.

I never said that those who view and speak of such stats only truck in those stats and ignore the other aspects of the game and players. Just saying that what I hear in some discussions does lead me to think that there are lots of guys who do lean on that data— either exclusively or at the cost of other aspects. It is just an impression I get, from what is said in some baseball discussions these days.

I can admit I am certainly someone who runs more on feel, instinct, and emotion, based on what I do for a living— and that is also how I approach the game and collecting. Just a shared observation among us fans/collectors. I always learn and glean good stuff from absorbing the very stat-centric baseball points of view I read around the web. I do think it can also be a good thing to temper that baseball worldview with some emotion/intangibles.

Do any of y'all think $5K for a topps signed 1 of 1 celebrating aj's recordbreaking moment is a "good" investment?????

I bought one of those for $500, happily. I think as an investment, who knows; it will depend on the unknown future of Aaron Judge's career. If he stays a beloved Yankee, the Yankee fanbase certainly has its share of well-heeled collectors who may want to have that 1/1 in their collection. Only time will tell on that one, from an investment standpoint.

Given the card and the moment it commemorates, and using my own motivations for buying one as a touchstone, I would hazard that it was bought by a hardcore Judge collector. If it's a collector like me with 10x my bankroll, I can see him spending 5k the way I spent five hundo.

i thought about it but couldnt do it. to me these topps "moments" cards have the potential to be produced in greater #'s than regularly issued cards. Not likely I know...but plausible????

There were only 100 in total offered of the 50th HR auto card, which I thought was a really smart number— certainly much smaller than demand, even at the offered price points. I have been really pleased with the Topps Now cards as a collector; the image quality is really nice and they display beautifully. I also like how they represent moments I fondly remember so well. They're more like specific mementos than other cards I guess, is the draw for me.

(They were gonna hook me no matter what with that card, lol, it memorializes such a happy moment for me and my family, jumping around, on the phone with relatives all hanging on his at bat.)

Even in this second half slump Judge was still getting on base at a good percentage, scoring runs, and helping out defensively. I wouldn't say he was a detriment to his team. The way he started and finished this season make him a great choice for MVP in my opinion. Not to mention hitting 50 homeruns as a rookie and shattering the rookie records for walks. A truly historic season that I'm sure someday I will be telling my kids and grand kids about.

[QUOTE=MattyC;1704644]There were only 100 in total offered of the 50th HR auto card, which I thought was a really smart number— certainly much smaller than demand, even at the offered price points. I have been really pleased with the Topps Now cards as a collector; the image quality is really nice and they display beautifully. I also like how they represent moments I fondly remember so well. They're more like specific mementos than other cards I guess, is the draw for me.

(They were gonna hook me no matter what with that card, lol, it memorializes such a happy moment for me and my family, jumping around, on the phone with relatives all hanging on his at bat.)[/QUOTE
I hear ya...it happened while I was at work...here in MN...and I'm the only yankees fan in town. I was running around the office yelling to everyone what just happened...no one could care less!!!!

Cherish those moments...and that cool card!

The wild card was far from wrapped up. Plus getting home field means something as well. Andrew McCutchen was horrid to start the year for months i believe...that doesnt matter now for him this season even though they long shot for playoffs... .182 is still better than .090.... you cant hit .270 all year and be a 50 homer hitter in most cases... sometimes you face a bunch of aces in a row or hot teams combined with a few bad weeks....

you also forget that weeks in baseball do make up for months...if Judge hit 20 homers in those 2 weeks....you think we would be having this conversation if he had 60 plus homeruns? nobody would care about the 'slump; hitting 50 plus homers with 5 or so games to go accomplishes the same thing, he didnt play a full season and he will have 110-115 rbis as well.. if he did not' slow down temporarily he probably has arguably the best hitting season of all time...

I believe Judge would be the first MVP, or ROY for that matter, with 200+ strikeouts, and possibly could finish the year with more Ks than Nellie Fox had in his entire 19 year major league career (216).

Granted Nellie didn't hit the long ball, but Joe DiMaggio almost had one home run (361) for every time he struck out (369). Judge currently has over 4 strikeouts (245) for each home run (54).

Three more dissimilar good ballplayers would be hard to name.

Strikeouts are far more common today then when Joltin' Joe played.

Bob Feller's 8.1 strikeouts per 9 innings ratio was remarkable in 1946 (only the 4th time it had happened in the NL since formation).

From 2000 to 2015, it has happened 290 times.

https://www.theringer.com/2016/6/17/...g-63da5eb7b35d

For a more modern comparison, Jim Thome comes to mind. 2548 career strike outs to 612 home runs.

One that comes to mind is Mike Trout. Not to say that Trout is a bad player because he is not but the similarities to his 2014 season a Judge's 2017 season are crazy. And Trout also has a greater than 4 to 1 SO to HR ratio for his career so far.

People keep bringing up the slump but in the month of September Judge has hit 13 homers and cemented a playoff spot for his team. The Yankees did not have anything guaranteed at the start of the month and now they've clinched. If Jose Ramirez's play in the final month of the season is something that makes him a contender, why would the same not be said about Judge? I realize the Indians record is tied into Ramirez's performance, but they were in either way being 8 games up on the Twins on September 1.

If Judge didnt slump and hit consistently for the entire year and thus no super hot weeks and ended up with the same statistics, isnt it the same thing? Stats are stats. Its a slump if it causes you not to get your statistics. If you get your stats, theres no slumps. Add to the fact he plays in New York and they made the playoffs as cherry on top.

Now a guy like Thames on the brewers...he had a 2nd slump...thats a real slump..

Again, Judge was still horrible the first 9 days of September. He has been hot 2 weeks, not the whole month. When Judge started hitting, the wild card was pretty much wrapped up. It would have taken an epic collapse for the Yankees to miss the playoffs. If the Yankees had gone 0-14 instead of 10-4, they would still be tied for the 2nd wild card spot. 7-7 and they still have a playoff birth clinched and are ahead of the Twins.

Ramirez hot streak started in August when the race was close and now they have the league's best record. That is huge. The Indians streak was historic. Ramirez performance during that streak was insane. 29-2 can't be ignored. Until the season is over, nothing is written in stone, but at this point Ramirez has been the league's most valuable player in my opinion.

The Indians were in first place on August 1 too. The streak is important to you because you like the Indians. Judge's September is important to me because I like the Yankees. It's a little frustrating to be called a homer by you but you don't see yourself as a homer as well. Saying the Yankees could have gone 0-14 and still made the playoffs doesn't really make a lot of sense to me because you can't look at the standings today and act like the Yankees didn't have to win games this month because of how things eventually turned out.

While it's certainly flattering to Judge to even be in the MVP discussion as a rookie, this is sort of shifting into an MVP-debate thread.

No one knows how the voters will cast their subjective votes, so it's a lot of Sturm und Drang over something that only time will tell. Snapshots can be taken and cited, numbers parsed, yet only the men who vote know what they weigh most.

For anyone interested I found this article a good morning coffee read; reminded me that life and baseball are all about how we respond when the chips are down:

http://nypost.com/2017/09/26/how-the...-hes-for-real/

Some important reg season baseball still to be played and watched! :)

I am Pirates fan and went to Game 1 of the World Series last year and rooted for the Cubs. I don't see how you think that I am a homer for the Indians. I don't see how you can deny a 22 game win streak, 29-2 record and huge numbers from Ramirez during that streak. Up until the last week, I have had Altuve as MVP. If Judge has another good week and the Yankees win the division, I may change again.