Starting to feel like an argument with my nephew over chemtrails.

This is why I love Net54, we've learned more about these cards in the last 24 hours than was previously known.
Props to Steve for his detective work and props to Al Crisafulli for his classy response to what was, at best, an ill-timed baseless accusation of forgery of 39 cards in his auction that is closing tonight.

LOL, I had that same argument with a way younger friend about psychics.:)

Trying to even follow the argument.

Herpolsheimer's takes out full page ads blaring the name of their business in large type. . . but they didn't show the back of the cards in the ad. . . . which would have also had the name of the store . . . so that's somehow proof of what . . .?

Thank you for the job endorsement. :D

I mean is it just that painful for someone to just say "Guess I was wrong?"

Just take the loss like an adult and own your conspiracy theory was groundless and proven wrong. This is pathetic

Ryan,

I know you're honest and I look forward to bidding in your future auctions.

Happy Holidays,

Brian

Brian's questions prompted another collector to discover more information about the set, which is why debate is a good thing, not a bad thing.

It shows just how many cards were thrown away. How many sets did they order? 100? and parts of 2 sets made it.

I believe it is near impossible for some. Me I get more than one thing wrong daily. I know this because my loving wife tells me so.:o

lol! :d

Best quote of the day and here is the best loophole in response:

I am not married. Oh, the onslaught is coming.

.

I agree...because of this thread the vast majority of us know more about this set, and now we have convincing evidence on how these cards were distributed (those boy suits must have been butt ugly). To the logical mind knowledge is always a good thing. So thank you Brian for setting the wheels in motion.

Brian

Thank you Aaron. :D ;)

This should be the perfect finale to this thread. Many have already left the room, including old MT himself, I imagine.
Love your Honus labels. Hope all well. John

I think we’ve learned survival rates for pre-war cards are incredibly low, I suspect well under 1% from the datasets. For example, using the printers record books and court testimony I have accounted for a minimum of 21,000,000 T225 series 1 cards printed. 25 subjects of equal printing = 840,000 of each produced, at least. I’d be surprised if there’s even 2,500 of each still around today. I’d project about 1 in 500 made it to 2023 for these. I’d think the 1920’s stuff wouldn’t be a lot better off, maybe a little.

I think 1914 Cracker Jacks say 15 million were made and I think of those as difficult to find.

I was guessing 100 sets of 1921 Herpolsheimer because I thought they would hope to sell a suit a day for that Summer. It could be much higher like 500.

At this point, we are feeding the troll. Thanks again to Steve. Hasta la vista.......

Brian, is this all just a ruse to prevent other bidders from bidding against you? ;)

I'm talking with Greg about 1921 Herpolsheimers card populations. BrianVH's theory has been debunked. I don't consider discussing this obscure set feeding a troll.

Well now I’m going to go bid on one of two of these

LOL!

Under the following logic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyp9fh-u4w8

Brian,

Now, in 2034 a boy's suit from Herpolsheimer's with a tag on the neck on the inside of the back identifying Herpolsheimer's will be found with, believe it or not, Herpolsheimer cards in the moth holed breast pocket. Amazingly, the cards, which will be of different levels of wear will be collectible. A miracle! To summarize the finding:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyp9fh-u4w8

Rob,

Just one note. I still disagree. The cards are fake and peer pressure has never affected me.

These are all fake! I can prove it.

So my Great Grandfather was Arthur Slugworth. He owned a competing boys suit company around the corner on 6th and Racine called Slugworth Inc. He wanted to steal business away from Herpolsheimers and had those cards made without the address on the back. He placed the ads in the local papers and when customers came looking to buy a boys suit and get the cards he would pop out from behind the Herpolsheimer display and whisper in their ears to meet him around the corner at his Slugworth Inc. store. He successfully sold 133 boys suits in this way which led to the downfall and eventual bankruptcy of Herpolcheimers.

Lol! :D

I have no idea on how many Herpolsheimer sets would have been made, 100, 500, 1,0000.

Part of the problem is that the quantity known today is usually impossible to know outside of the sets so rare the hobby keeps perfect track of them; even if we had all production data for everything we'd be missing another of the 2 figures for most sets. And what the hobby knows and tracks is different from what survives as we keep finding cards that have not previously hit the market or hobby before (usually they are just T206's or something and not that exciting, but new to the hobby).

The surviving data on the T cards suggests to me a survival rate of somewhere between .1 and .4%. But even assuming this is all correct and my deductions perfect, it doesn't mean other card types survive at the same rate. Cracker Jacks could be vastly different because they were issued in a product more for kids, an audience to keep the cards, got their hands on or less because of the crappy thin stock. The 1914's mention the 15,000,000 figure but it's not quite clear that is the entirety of the print run. Other cards mention 10,000,000 as the print run, so it may have been a made-up claim to sound important in the first place. 15,000,000 would be 104,166.67 of each card printed. There's not more than, I don't know, 300-400 or so of each one today? That would put it in similar survival range.

With how Herpolsheimers were distributed, evidently entirely for kids, I would guess their survival rate would be a bit higher. For very rare sets though the luck factor of a stash surviving is far more significant.

I mean debunked in my opinion by SteveD's findings. It would help if Todd agreed with you, as he is in my opinion, a/the vocal expert on these backs.

I think the dealer you spoke with had no way of confirming what he had in 1999. It's fine with me for you to maintain what you believe. I was stating what I believe.

On the Herpolsheimer's, I think the ad that SteveD found convinces me that they gave them out with the suits, and these were circulated in Grand Rapids in 1921, but there may not be any more left to be found.

No problem, Rob. If you are bidding on them, best of luck. As I mentioned earlier, the only I even considered was the Davenport to go with my two real Davenports. Still, with other auctions and the holidays, I have better uses for my funds. I still might bid on something tonight non-Herpolsheimer.

Happy Holidays,

Brian

Brian - maybe you explained this before, just curious. Is you position:

(a) all of the Herpolsheimers that have been identified to date are counterfeits

(b) the series never existed and therefore all the Herpolsheimers that have been identified to date are fantasy cards

(c) there was a series that existed and could be real cards out there, but believe these are counterfeit because they are the same ones I saw at a show and some guy told me about them, or

(d) something else

Genuinely wondering.

Yes; I'm addressing the quantity though. I am not disputing the ads in any way, shape or form.

Steve,

I understand:

(a) all of the Herpolsheimers that have been identified to date are counterfeits

This thread has a Linus Van Pelt/The Great Pumpkin vibe to it. And lots of pissed off Sally Browns.

Actually, I was thinking it has some good educational value with a large dose of Kyrie Irving.

LOL!

PLEASE forgive me for this idea.

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE use that in court one day. I guarantee it will be quoted by other lawyers for decades and centuries to come.

:D

You keep using that word…

Re-count. Three words abbreviated.

:D

I agree with what you are saying on populations and adding my opinion that this small town department store probably only ordered a 1000 or far fewer sets to give away, and it's surprising that any cards with this back survived at all. Before I saw the ad, I assumed they were uncirculated and kept by the staff.

Thanks. Have a great weekend. Appreciate your views always.

A further note, according to an ad I found from 1922, Herpolsheimer's was celebrating their 52nd anniversary that spring/summer; so, they had been around since 1870. Also, according to the ad, Grand Rapids was the 2nd-largest city in Michigan, with a population of around 140K-150K, and Herpolsheimer's was the "greatest" store in western Michigan. So, they obviously didn't feel the need for much more than basic advertising.....everyone knew who they were, and where they were located; they started at one location, and then later, moved directly across the street.

If you look on ebay, you'll also find Victorian era trade cards advertising their store.

Also, thank you to everyone for the kind words; I greatly appreciate them.

Steve

I wouldn't make too much of the address issue. After all, Brian posted a 1921 Standard Biscuit card he owns and it does not have an address on the back. It also has a border design inferior to the Holsum Bread card he posted. And the Standard Biscuit card is real...or is it?

Depends. The ones with the fake back stamp or the real ones?

neither do evidence and facts apparently...

LOL! The day after the auction and saving money.

Well, you should really be ashamed and embarrassed of yourself. I think your post was a clear attempt to interfere with Al's auction. Luckily it backfired spectacularly.

Kudos to all the collectors here on Net54 who have been able to add one of these cards to their collection.

My hope is that the Ruth pops up in the LOTG Fall 2023 wins thread. Wouldn't that be something?

Dan,

It's a free country. Spend the way you want. Not ashamed of the truth.

Considering Brian originally aired his views in 2004, I think that is an unfounded and unfair comment.