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And, I have to say, I don't think Dave and the Peace Corps would have been a good fit. |
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This acquisiton is going to be very bad for the pricing of grading. Before the acquistion, it was pretty much a 4-firm Oligopoly with pricing remaining pretty high coming out of the pandemic and not returning to pre-pandemic levels. SGC became aggressive with fast $15 grading which hurt PSA, and PSA had to respond recently with better specials and reducing their backlog. The only thing propping up PSA's volume was a surge in TCG cards (which you can see on GEMRATE - Google it if you don't know GEMRATE), which is going to level off once the first wave of TCG collectors discovering grading ends.
Now, we are stuck with PSA/SGC, a seemingly disinterested BGS and a weakened CGS/CGC, which is a 3-firm Oligopoly where two of the firms are weak. I don't count other grading services (GMA, etc.) because they don't have the name, reputation and volume for auction buyers to pay attention on eBay and other outlets. I give SGC's $15 price with $9 for TCG about 2 months before "inflation" causes a price increase. The FTC should leave Kroger alone and block PSA/SGC merger! |
Yep, the smooth talking BS when prices go up will be amusing.
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Best case scenario?
- PSA focuses on modern cards - SGC focuses on vintage cards I think that would solve one of the seeming issues in grading, where it feels like graders trained on modern cards are then asked to grade vintage cards. If they split up the expertise into two separate groups perhaps they'd turn out a better product? (But do I think this will happen? No.) |
I just looked at the PSA grading "specials" for the month.. :eek:
I have not been a PSA member in 10+ years, boy how the fees and turnaround times have changed. I sure hope SGC stays the same, I cant imaging paying $15 bucks a card and waiting 2+ months to get the card back |
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Future SGC card Value
Will SGC cards loose their value, will buyers even want the SGC graded cards or offer pennies on the dollar? -will future SGC submissions cease to exist, is this the ultimate plan -?? confused in the Show Me State.
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SGC slabs will be worthless . Anyone with a Ruth or Jackson in an SGC slab, I’ll be willing to help you cut your loss by buying your cards:D
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Agreed. These and everything else in SGC slabs are worthless!!
No seriously, the cards are still the cards and SGC’s reputation is still the best for grading prewar baseball. As mentioned, they aren’t going out of business and they haven’t done anything wrong to tarnish their work/reputation. Time will tell what becomes of SGC. If SGC is eventually closed down, for those who need a flip (like me), I expect PSA will cross all cards, likely at a discount, but upon review. Honestly, If prices on SGC cards plummet, I am a buyer. |
Totally agree Ryan. The cards are still the cards in reputable slabs, and if they're crossed down the road so be it.
Lots of negative noise going on over this, for no reason in my opinion! https://www.collectorfocus.com/image...06-eddie-plank |
I hope you guys are right, as my prewar is about 50 50, but I fear the scenario where SGC values eventually drop substantially and at least the older graded cards cross at a grade lower in part because standards are higher and in part because that's how PSA does things. I imagine for people who are active submitters this is a dilemma too because apparently for many people it's impossible to get fair grades out of PSA now, but submitting to SGC may not be prudent going forward.
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Am I going crazy, or did I see something in the last week or so about Fanatics looking to dump Goldin?
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In trouble
For the people that think SGC cards wont drop in value i think your nuts. Maybe if the company stays that maybe true but without the confidence that they wont just close tomorrow there will always be that in the back of my head. Also tons of cards have been rejected by psa only to be slabbed by sgc. So these cards should never cross assuming the standards stay the same. That sgc 4 becomes a PSA minimum size and your losing a ton of value.
In the end i agree nothing i can do but ride it out, but i wont be subbing to sgc anymore and will only buy a card if i dont care about the grade. CGC is doing a ton with TCG cards and i do not think they will gain much traction until they make a lot of improvements. The green label was a horrible choice, so the move was good but i dont like the all black either. I have a lot of value in SGC slabs and long term i do think it could be a problem… James G |
It would not surprise me at all to see a ton of SGC cards for sale soon as guys calculate it's better to get what they can now rather than take the crossover risk or wait for the brand to be further devalued.
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When the SGC Slabs are no longer produced as part of Collectors and become one Slab United as PSA ( it makes no sense in my mind to have one company going public to have two different slabs) the newly graded cards will all be in PSA slabs and will become part of the registry and pop the old sgc slabs will not. Regarding the crossover of old SGC slabs, I do not know if you could be offered a discounted rate, but I don’t think PSA will cross them over at the same grade. This will probably happen in my mind before they go public, so within the next approximately two years or so would be my estimation. Time will tell. If you have powerful cards and SGC you are fine they’re still very reputable. However, if you have lower tier and lower grades, there could be an issue down the road getting those crossed over the good stuff will remain good. The average stuff could be less than average.
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SGC has built a great reputation for vintage. I don't think that the purchase of SGC by Collectors in any way diminishes that reputation. You still have a card in a reputable slab. I don't really see a reason why a vintage card in an SGC slabs going forward should be worth considerably less because the company was bought out.
As for CGC/CSG, I use them mainly for modernish cards. I dislike the sleeve they use for smaller sizes vintage but for standard sized cards, I think they are a terrific alternative to PSA, solid grading and lovely slabs. Yes, resale value is nowhere near PSA but I am not a flipper, so I don't really care. |
There is so much stuff graded by SGC. This isn't like GAI because collectors/hobbyist/investors understood the difference between older graded GAI cards and the later graded GAI cards. In my opinion, that's why cards in a GAI slab sells at a discount when compared to PSA and SGC.
If PSA were to shutter SGC, then most collectors/hobbyist/investors understand that SGC cards are probably on par with PSA when the actual grade is concerned, however, it seems that SGC slabbed cards get the same or a little less than PSA cards. Bottom line, it's the appeal of the card to the buyer that's going to dictate the final price in a sale (not auction). I'd be surprised if PSA were to merge/add the SGC population to the PSA registry. In the end, who gives a crap? It's all the same because nothing really changes when considering the apathetic attitude taken with regard to all the TPGs inability to be consistent in assessing pieces of cardboard. |
Eventually the market is going to devalue defunct slabs IMO, reputable or not. And the assumption will be the owner wasn't able to cross the card, or knew it would not cross, as the assumption now is for GAI. Which it turn will devalue SGC slabs further. This will take time, but I think it's the future. No good comes of this, in the end. For the man on the street, anyhow.
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I agree that nothing is safe now. Grading standards are now fluid. Just because your card is slabbed a 3 doesn’t mean it will be a 3 in X years. Twenty year old slabs are already getting the, “That’s an old slab and would never grade that today” treatment.
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But if some of the fears expressed here come to fruition, in some ways it exposes the potential fragility of current valuations for high grade stuff, and not just for SGC, but for those of us with our collections in PSA slabs as well. Recalls to mind some of the recent marveling we’ve done at a PSA 9 slabs selling for 100x the PSA 8 slabs for some vintage pieces of common players. The whole thing smacks of the emperor whose clothing wasn’t as fine as those around him suggested it was. Maybe Jingram was right all along… |
It is not just because of PSA's registry that their cards, for the most part, sell for a premium over an SGC counterpart but also that when buying PSA you are buying into a much larger company. SGC was owned by one guy...some of whom claim he has a bad rep. Maybe this hurt their resale value or peoples' desire to invest in those holders, whether or not they did a better job or not?
The owner of SGC made a great business decision for himself. It is too bad for all of the collectors that the buyer of SGC was a competitor who will, sooner than later, eliminate the brand. At the end of the day, collectors who stuck with SGC were inventing in the owner, not the company. |
I was looking through some cards and noticed I have some graded by Sports Collectors Digest. A reputable company back in the day that got bought out as well. I don't see SCD slabs anymore these days, but if I did, I doubt you would have to pay the same price as a PSA or SGC graded version.
Point I am trying to make is, as some have mentioned, if SGC is no longer a company in the future, I can see the value of low tier SGC slabbed cards dropping. |
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If SGC ceases to exist then those of us who stayed loyal to SGC invested in the owner and whether or not you or I see those SGC cards as being worth less once the brand is gone, what you and I think is meaningless. Anything in an SGC holder at some point will be seen/construed/assumed to being unworthy of crossing either because the owner did not want to take a 2 grade point hit or because PSA was going to put the card in an Auth holder. The perception will be more important than the reality. |
I have no idea what will happen to SGC, but I am not writing them off just yet.
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Sold SGC Cobb and Cap Anson --just in time!
Sold my SGC Cobb and SGC Cap Anson just last couple weeks for good $$$$--not sure if either would have crossed over with same grade, the Anson possibly just Authentic-Lucky timing if prices collapse-guess we'll wait and see.
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One thing is certain from reading this thread:
The answer to every single question asked about this acquisition will be an absolutely guaranteed 100% NO, while also being an absolutely guaranteed 100% YES. :eek: |
Much of what I've read from people both here and on various other platforms seems to be rooted in either wishful thinking or out of fear of the worst-case scenarios. Not many people seem to be putting themselves in Nat's shoes or in SGC's shoes when trying to predict what is most likely to happen.
I love game theory, and I usually try to view these sorts of things through that lens. So, what do we know? We know that any PR message put out right now by either company means nothing about their long-term vision. They simply have to state that nothing will change and that it will be business as usual, regardless of their true intentions. But that doesn't mean their true intentions can't be to maintain both brands indefinitely. To solve that riddle, we can make some assumptions based on what we know and assume that Nat et al will act rationally. We know PSA wants more quality vintage graders. SGC has them. Bringing them into the fold is a strong value add. We also know that PSA wants to continue to expand its footprint physically. Adding a location in FL makes a lot of sense for them. We also know that SGC has been growing significantly over the past couple years. Their growth rate is many multiples of PSAs. Had that trend continued, and had they been acquired by someone with more financial backing like Fanatics or CGC, they might have become a serious threat to PSA. So Collectors buying them out before someone else caps that threat at the knees. But just because they bought out SGC doesn't mean they did so just to shut down competition and steal their graders (who would certainly become disgruntled employees if that were the case). It just doesn't make sense financially. Here's what I think will happen. I think Collectors does in fact want to allow SGC to continue to operate for the foreseeable future. Not because they said so, but because it makes the most sense financially. SGC has a loyal vintage following, and PSA doesn't exactly win them over if they were to buy them out and shut it down. That would risk an army of disgruntled SGC employees all jumping ship and just moving over to CGC where they'd be welcomed with open arms. News would spread quickly that CGC is the new SGC and the vintage community would follow them over in an instant. Nat & company aren't stupid. They are fully aware of these risks. They want to keep SGC customers happy and they want to keep SGC employees happy. That said, most of the growth that SGC has experienced came from the ultra-modern side of the hobby. Those submitters are not loyal to SGC. They don't care about the cards at all. They just want to flip their cards as quickly as possible and get 10s on them. SGC is often their best option because of the turnaround times and lower grading fees. If SGC were to shut down, most of that business likely would transfer over to PSA - especially if they are able to improve their turnaround times by then. I suspect PSA's long-term intentions are to keep SGC up and running for as long as it makes sense. If the market continues to show strong demand for SGC's services, then they'll continue to offer them. If the market turns its back on SGC as a result of the merger, then they'll be more likely to let the brand die. I doubt they have concrete long-term plans with everything completely ironed out at this point. I think what we'll see after a couple of years is a joint PSA/SGC office in FL where both brands operate independently but with shared resources; technical, grading, and operations. PSA will likely take advantage of the vintage grading experts at SGC and put them to work on both PSA and SGC submissions. FL will become their vintage hub. All bulk vintage submissions will likely be sent there. They'll allow anyone who wants to move from CA to FL to do so, and vice versa. But they won't force any of them to. This could be a good thing for us as collectors. The SGC graders have pride in their work, and they're better at grading vintage cards than most PSA vintage graders, and they know it. PSA knows it as well. These guys will eventually be grading our PSA cards. That will result in more consistent and accurate vintage grades at PSA. It will also likely result in more SGC slabs crossing over at a higher rate as they have pride in those slabs. Turn-around times at SGC will likely slow as PSA shares resources at the FL office to balance out volumes across both brands. Grading fees (and their corresponding value thresholds) are likely to be slightly less favorable at SGC in the future, but not for a while. I think it's premature to assume that the sky is falling. Getting rid of SGC completely just doesn't make a ton of sense for PSA. But putting them under the same roof in FL as PSA and creating a joint office does make a ton of sense. These guys are going to do whatever makes the most sense financially. And it doesn't make sense to spend $100M to acquire SGC only to shut them down, steal their graders, and piss off all their customers. That's just not going to happen. That said, if SGC does eventually go away, it will have a measurable effect on their slab values in the limit. At first, values will remain fairly close to where they are now as the market trusts their grades and people will continue to pay top dollar for their cards because they'll have confidence that they will cross over to PSA (and I do believe they will cross over at a higher rate in the future when former SGC graders are the ones crossing them). But as time goes on and more and more of these cards get crossed over, there will eventually be a sentiment among collectors that the remaining SGC slabs that are still out there are less and less likely to cross. This sentiment will exist because it will be true. That will slowly devalue SGC slabs. But there will be a floor to how far they can fall. The market will always respect their grading, and ultimately, the cards inside are still what matters most. |
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I pretty much agree with everything that snowman/Travis just wrote.
Its a well-reasoned guess. (You beat me to it Ryan) |
I think this does create a very real opportunity though for CGC. I really hope they are able to capitalize on it.
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What precedent is there for a dominant industry player acquiring a minor, niche competitor and continuing indefinitely to maintain its separateness and prop up its brand?
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SCD and me
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Folks, look at the poll on the main board. 44 percent like me are in agreement, SGC will eventually dissolve. Maybe not today, maybe not in a year, but eventually it will happen. Collectors is not, I repeat, not going to run two companies like this forever. Makes no sense in the long run. I have Sgc cards and I am now wonder what to do with them. Hold, cross, sell…. Not sure yet. But the news on Thursday has me thinking, as I am sure other SGC collectors are thinking as well. I know PSA will be flooded with crosses over the next few weeks. |
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But I agree that perhaps no one, including Nat knows what will happen with SGC. |
While I agree that in the short term sgc cards should maintain their value comparatively...esp the older more obscure stuff. Once us middle aged dinosaurs die off...SGC will have been long gone and the whippersnappers will shun anything in an SGC holder as fake/altered.
I'm not too concerned about values of my SGC collection as most are very desirable ruthian cards or more rare caramels and tobaccos. |
Is it this?:
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Regardless, it's no one's business why he sold or how much he got. When you own a business, you get to sell whenever you want, for as much or as little as you want. I'm just grateful Dave held out as long as he could in order not to keep us collectors holding the bag. What a selfless act of hobby benevolence! |
Well, they're not incongruent. He had offers over the years that would have made him very wealthy but didn't take them in part because he felt that SGC customers could get screwed. And that is what largely made the prior offers not right for him. I know, because I spoke to him during that time period about them.
Now he got the offer he wanted and the comfort he needed for SGC customers. Had he taken a prior offer, there would be outrage from his customer base, instead of what we have here, which is a mix of optimism, anguish and jealousy. |
He should buy you 2 dinners.
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And that Plank looks good in a tux Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk |
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Like many, I too have many cards in SGC flips. I think selling now would be a terrible idea, because buyers are likely vultures looking for panicked sellers. It may be worthwhile considering crossing cards, although I am not sure that is necessary, as it will always be an option (and perhaps PSA will give some deal/facilitate it down the line). As far as buying SGC flips, if I see a card I want in an SGC flip, I will buy it with confidence; indeed, I wouldn’t mind getting a deal bc people are scared to buy. Trust me, I wish this wasn’t happening- because it creates a lot of uncertainty and more likely downside than upside - but, for me, it’s business as usual. I would be much more pessimistic had SGC closed down, or been bought by Beckett or some lesser company. End of the day, if I can get cards in SGC flips at a discount bc people are scared to buy, great! |
I plead very guilty to cynicism and skepticism especially in this hobby, but when the dominant market player acquires essentially the only remaining competitor in the vintage market, and people are trying to put a positive spin on it, no thanks.
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I currently have 3 subs at SGC now, with several more that I am preparing to send, however my fear now is that given the state of todays workforce, will the employees and especially the graders completely check out and have less desire to peform their jobs at a high level.
Turn around times have slowed considerably lately, which doesnt bother me, but would hate to see bad grades given if employee moral has diminshed. |
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This deal meets the definition of big business and in big business we all know where the common man is. Call me a moron but I cannot see how Collectors could give any assurances or comfort to those holding SGC cards. |
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Cross-over $$$
Make cross-over money to help cover the 100 million purchase price and eliminate the competition at the same time. Could be a brilliant business scheme. Time will tell.
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I’ve been in IT for 40 years. At least in that industry in never happens. I think if you don’t see an investment in an SGC Registry(maybe a pipe dream) or a merged registry that will be a tell tale sign. SGC collectors have been mentioning it ever since they moved to Florida and it has been deflected every year. PSA has the software and resources to do it, but why invest in a brand you’re going to kill. I haven’t read every note, but maybe PSA is planning on getting out of California to a tax-friendly “red” state. You saw what Trump did, Jeff Bezos did. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
Collectors SGC
I've waited a couple days to "read the room" on this thread. Many people are
putting forward thoughtful comments, while others use it to obliquely dig at those who prefer SGC (I just learned I'm part of an "enclave of devotees". Who'da thunk it?) Good Lord... I agree that this is a good move by SGC ownership, selling to advantage. Don't blame them a bit. Time will tell if/when/how PSA will somehow manage to be intelligent about the SGC acquisition, or if they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Meantime, I'm not "flooding" PSA with cracked SGC cards for conversion, because my faith in PSA's ability to grade properly hasn't changed. I'm happy to keep my SGCs for the foreseeable future, see how things evolve rather than make a mad dash for the panic room. People have remarked about the demise of companies like GAI and the devaluation of their cards. I'm not sure that's a clean comparison, SGC didn't simply fold and their product is desirable. Quality tends to survive. I attend a really good local show next weekend and Strongsville in April. Those places will be a good testing ground for how hobbyists/dealers are taking the news, I would think. Trent King |
After reading through this thread there seems to be "SGC" and "PSA" collectors. I'm neither. I collect cards that may or may not be encapsulated and if encapsulated, it could be by either (or different) TPG plastic housing the cards.
I'm not going to bust the card out of a piece of plastic because of some BS brand loyalty to a TPG whose subjectivity is just as bad as the other TPG. In the end, does it really matter? It's a piece of plastic with a paper flip. I can't imagine why the encapsulation is going to influence the pricing that much. I get it, if it's in a PSA slab it may get a little more money, but do people really think that because it's not in PSA plastic, the card is going to be worth so much less? The writers of Seinfeld could have had a field day with this topic. I could see Larry David poking a lot of fun at this in Curb Your Enthusiasm. |
PSA To Buy SGC – Should This Card Grading Monopoly Be Allowed?
https://allvintagecards.com/psa-to-buy-sgc-monopoly/ |
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Even if it was above the $119.5 threshold should the FCC apply resources/scrutiny to this completely non-essential service? |
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I agree with most of this...EXCEPT that only card nerds would appreciate a curb episode on this topic...not funny for the masses! I could see a documentary on the comical corruption of the sports card hobby someday on tbs or the history channel. |
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