Your reading comprehension skills are apparently very poor if your takeaway from the Posnanksi article was that many people think Mattingly deserves to be in. He is saying a lot more than that. Mainly that Hernandez is more deserving than Mattingly DESPITE what people like you think. Note that this article was part of a larger series of articles in which Posnanski ranks the best players not in the HOF. Where does he rank Hernandez? Number 22, behind players such as Albert Pujols and ahead of Fred McGriff, Johan Santana, Curt Schilling and Jeff Kent. And where does he rank Mattingly? He ranks him number 53.

Now is the part when Greg G1911 accuses me of "appealing to authority"

Rick Reuschel is in this club.

Bobby Grich. :)

Conventional wisdom often under-values players who are good at lots of things but not great at any single thing. Bobby Grich is an example. He was very good defensively. He had good-but-not-great power. He drew lots of walks, so his on base percentage was good, but since he had a relatively low batting average, it wasn't outstandingly good. Add it up and you get a really good player. But since he didn't do anything flashy, he doesn't have the corresponding reputation.

That makes sense but he ranks ahead of Jackie, Sandberg, Alomar and Biggio, hard to buy into that for me anyhow.

What about Aaron Nola for the too soon to tell crowd? Nothing jumps out but he's 30 years old and has over 1500 K's. They say 3000 is the magic number for pitchers and still being relatively young I could see a path to it.

To get back to subject instead of Hernandez and personal agendas between posters -

Biggio, Utley and Jackie are all really close together. Jackie is a very short career which is why, but Utley is 1.0 WAR below Biggio. Have a hard time seeing them as essentially the same value. Biggio played far more at a similar effectiveness. One really has to buy into dWAR's hatred of Biggio's defense.

It's not really cherry picking. There is no time or metric or era by which you can twist a 1B hitting .299 with 7 homers into being a good year. None. Go look at Al Oliver in 1982 and try and tell me that Hernandez was even close as WAR says he was.

And you, again, went right back to Gold Gloves. For a 1B. One of Olerud's greatest talents was eliminating errors from other players, something ignored by Gold Glove voters and dWAR. He consistently cut down throwing errors when joining teams. But, again, who cares? It's 1B. It's like bragging about Jim Kaat's Gold Gloves as a pitcher.

Olerud had essentially the same total WAR in nearly the same AB. He hit 18+ homers seven times - Hernandez did it once. Olerud led his league in OPS and OPS+ and hit .350 or higher twice. Hernandez never did any of that.

I don't think Olerud belongs in the Hall. Hernandez was a fine player who had an excellent career. But he doesn't belong in the Hall either.

Somewhat related to this discussion, I enjoyed this blog post:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-fred...3000-hit-club/

I like this adjustment as well:

"ZiPS actually has a milestone algorithm I wrote some years ago that reduces playing time less as a player nears a significant milestone, so the projection system now has Freeman more likely to get to 3,000 than to fall short, at 53%."

Reviving, with modifications from 2023 or new entrants showing in CAPS. These are by RC class.
1995 Beltran (maybe) (LIKELY)
1997 Beltre (lock)(IN)
1999 Sabathia (likely)(IN)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)(IN)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely)
2002 Votto (likely)(LOCK)
2002 Mauer (likely)(IN)
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (likely)
2010 Stanton (unlikely)
2010 Kenley Jansen (unlikely)
2011 Craig Kimbrel (unlikely)
2011 Altuve (likely)(LOCK)
2011 Sale (MAYBE)
2011 Freeman (likely)(LOCK)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (likely)(LOCK)
2012 Harper (likely)(LOCK)
2013 Arenado (likely)
2013 Machado (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2013 Cole (likely)
2014 Betts (likely)(LOCK)
2014 DeGrom (unlikely)
2014 J Ramirez (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2014 Bogaerts (unlikely)
2015 Lindor (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2015 Correa (too soon to tell)
2016 T Turner (UNLIKELY)
2016 Seager (UNLIKELY)
2017 Judge (LOCK)
2017 Bregman (TOO SOON TO TELL)

Thoughts? Additions?

If you are including Turner and Seager you may want to include Bregman, especially with the year he is having.

Fair, will add him and my rating.

Relievers, I think Jansen (especially if he rights the ship this year) is about a pick 'em at this point.

Kimbrel's final few years are a complete enigma. His strikeout rate never faltered, his walk rate didn't increase yet he got shellacked. How can you be as unhittable as ever based on your K rate, and yet be incredibly hittable???

I know he is still a few years short but Ohanti likely needs to be included

I think Utley is more likely than unlikely but definitely not a lock.

2017 is the arbitrary limit now. Everyone is is too soon to tell. :)

Another vote for this. His voting results are on the right track and his fans skew younger among the electorate, so time is his friend. He’d be a lock if he had the Gold Gloves he should have gotten, which is of course ridiculous. There’s also the discussion of how to value him being one of the best baserunners (not stealers) ever.

Would also up Greinke to a Lock. A bit like Utley in that the 7 year prime is super high, but he’s got raw counting stats for his era on top.

Great topic. FWIW:

Betts is a lock. Currently at 72 WAR but more importantly, to the naked eye, a great player who is a winner. 3x WS, 6x GG, one MVP and three times finished second in the voting, a total team player who willingly plays (and excels at) multiple positions (take that Mr. Devers).

Freeman a lock. Lot of bold ink, winner, MVP, clutch player

Yadier Molina a lock. 2x WS, 10x AS, 9x GG (inc. 4 Platinum), 2100+ hits and .277 career batting avg., both very good for a career catcher.

Arenado a lock. His offensive numbers are good enough (346 HR) and he has 10 GG, including 6 Platinum.

deGrom is a fave of my family but he could be an interesting case. If he can accumulate more wins (at least 100 career) and top-5 CY voting with low ERA, etc. then I think he’ll get in as he is, when healthy, dominant. If he were to retire today then perhaps he’s a no. Unfortunately, pitchers are what they are today so the standards are different. I’m still trying to figure out why pitchers suffer so many more major injuries now when they seemingly throw fewer pitches and are babied so much more than generations ago. Let’s make that a topic for a different day!

If Chris Sale has another Cy Young caliber season, he could get in.

I will add him to the list, good one.

Lindor should be added too. He’s a couple more productive years away from being a lock and he’s 31. Jose Ramirez as well.

Read the list, both are on there already.

Was looking at the original list on page 1. Just found the updated list.

I would add Matt Olson. 2017 Rookie Card. Currently at 35.6 WAR, 269 HR. Just turned 31 less than 2 months ago. Somewhere between unlikely and likely. Closer to likely in my opinion.

He’s going to need to be very productive well into his 30’s. I think getting to 500 HR is his only shot.

Ah, I will clarify in the first post, thanks.

Great topic, though I am not sure Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa are not the same person.

I think Stanton's going to clear 500 HR easily before he quits so I'd bump him up a bit.
Along similar lines (HR hitters) I'd consider Kyle Schwarber a possibility.-- he's got 301 HRs and looks like a strong candidate for a 500+ career.

500 HRs has been pretty much a guarantee for players who have no PDI smoke. It still seems to be a valid magic number

As you note (Peter) Ohtani is probably a lock already.... This year he's on pace to score more than one run per game played... I don't think anyone has reached that milestone since Gehrig in 1936.

I'll take the under if you're taking wagers.

429 HR's is always hurt and has become Adam Dunn without the walks. He hasn't put up a .300 ON BASE PERCENTAGE in 4 years. While he still has some pop I don't think there's any reason to give him enough plate appearances to get 71 more home runs, let alone "easily"

Any pitchers whose RCs are 2015-2017? With the new pitching stats I have a hard time assessing.

Schwarber has a 17 WAR and a .231 BA. Enough said.

Exactly - there is a thread on BO talking Schwarber and HOF.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'd take the under on him and 500 HR's also. 200 left to go at 32 years old and no reason to play him if he slips at all from his current levels. If he becomes a .200 30 home run guy he's actually hurting your team.

Greinke is top 100 in all-time WAR, ahead of many no-doubt HOFers. He should absolutely get in.

Stanton is signed through 2027 so if he could somehow stay healthy (I know, very big if, especially since he's hurt now), he could get to 500. He's hit 31, 24 and 27 home runs the last 3 seasons with around 450 plate appearances each year. I agree I'd take the under, though. However, if he did get to 500, it would certainly be interesting to see how the BBWAA voters handled him since 500 home runs has always been considered a HoF lock without any PED connection.

Schwarber would definitely be another interesting case if he gets to 500 home runs, but also a long way to go to 500.

WIth his WAR and BA, he's not making the Hall either way.

Jeff Kent was one I never understood. Most home runs and rbi all time as a second baseman and barely at 15% of the vote every year.

He was disliked.

So we're Jim Rice and Dick Allen.

You're probably right, but that's what would make it interesting to see what happens if he did actually get to 500 home runs.

I am not saying Kent is not deserving, but Rice and Allen were both for at least modest periods close to the best power hitters in the game.

Most homers, 2nd in slugging and RBI to Hornsby, 4th in OPS. Even with the slow start to his career Kent turned out very well and is so high up the 2B leaderboards it seems difficult to justify keeping him out over his late start, but performance is now secondary to narratives. Ortiz is let in with a positive steroid test while the others like him are not given the same treatment, Schilling is kept out for politics, Kent is out for being undesirable, Vizquel is out over a civil claim with no publicly available evidence, the vets committee appears to have reached Frisch era corruption of picking friends. Performance is a lot less relevant than it was 30 years ago. Makes it more difficult to pick who will or won’t among current players that will be up for votes in another decade plus - it will probably have as much as to do with narratives not about actual performance as it does anything definable.

Whitaker IMO even more deserving than Kent. And of course there's the case of Grich.

Contemporary ballot coming up this year (for the 2026 HOF class).

Now is the time for baseball to make up for the absolute disrespect of Kenny Lofton being a 1-and-done ballot HOF candidate.

If not for playing vs roiders, he would have been a lot more impressive compared to his peers and more than 6 All-Star selections.

Kent is one of those guys that shows much better in pure counting stats than modern ones. As soon as you start to take the era he played in into account, his case gets quite a bit worse.

I'm sure the off field stuff doesn't help, but it's not the only reason.

2nd base JAWS rankings

8 Grich
12 Utley
13 Whitaker
22 Kent

Any active pitchers beyond the big three, Cole and Sale who should be considered? DeGrom, already on the list. The traditional stats for all the rest are so unimpressive. Is Fried still a possibility at age 31 and less than 100 wins? Nola who is now awful? Wheeler? Or is the day of the starting pitcher just over?

It's hard to imagine a reality where Blake Snell is a HOF pitcher but he's 32 and has two Cy Young awards during his only two decent seasons as a pro. It's not out of the realm of possibility he manages a third good season sometime before he retires and there isn't anyone with three or more Cy Youngs or who isn't in the HOF other than Clemens (assuming Kershaw, Scherzer and Verlander all get elected).

If that happens, he still won't make the Hall. As you point out, he's done literally nothing outside his Cy seasons. The same is not true for any other pitcher in that category.

It would be an interesting case but I also think it would be really hard to advocate for him. At the same time, he would be among elite pitchers.

Same concept in my mind if Schwarber hits 500 HR with a .220 BA. So not happening. At one point I thought Bieber and Buehler were going to be the next great pitchers but that doesn't look likely.

I highly doubt Stanton gets there but I feel the same way about him if he were to somehow hit 500 homers. Just not a HOFer in my opinion.

Completely agree.

Interesting PSA doesn't have Harper on its registry set list and Tejada is still on it

https://www.psacard.com/psasetregist...mposition/1512

Issue Card # Weight
1963 TOPPS PETE ROSE 537 10.00
1970 TOPPS YANKEES ROOKIES/T. MUNSON 189 2.00
1977 TOPPS DALE MURPHY 476 1.00
1978 TOPPS ROOKIE 2nd BASEMEN/LOU WHITAKER 704 1.00
1984 FLEER UPDATE ROGER CLEMENS U-27 2.00
1985 TOPPS MARK MCGWIRE 401 1.00
1986 FLEER UPDATE BARRY BONDS U-14 1.00
1989 DONRUSS CURT SCHILLING 635 1.00
1989 UPPER DECK GARY SHEFFIELD 13 1.00
1989 UPPER DECK OMAR VIZQUEL 787 1.00
1990 LEAF SAMMY SOSA 220 1.00
1990 UPPER DECK JUAN GONZALEZ 72 1.00
1992 BOWMAN MANNY RAMIREZ 532 1.00
1992 FLEER UPDATE JEFF KENT U-104 1.00
1994 SP ALEX RODRIGUEZ 15 1.50
1995 BOWMANS BEST ANDRUW JONES 7 1.00
1995 TOPPS TRADED CARLOS BELTRAN 18T 1.00
1997 BOWMAN CHROME MIGUEL TEJADA 273 1.00
2000 TOPPS CHROME TRADED MIGUEL CABRERA T40 1.00
2001 SP AUTHENTIC ALBERT PUJOLS 126 2.00
2002 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT PICKS ZACK GREINKE 6 1.50
2002 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT PICKS JOEY VOTTO 44 1.50
2003 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT PICKS ROBINSON CANO 124 1.00
2004 TOPPS YADIER MOLINA 324 1.00
2005 TOPPS JUSTIN VERLANDER 677 1.00
2005 TOPPS CHROME UPDATES & HIGHLIGHTS NELSON CRUZ UH210 1.00
2008 TOPPS UPDATE & HIGHLIGHTS CLAYTON KERSHAW UH240 1.50
2008 TOPPS UPDATE & HIGHLIGHTS MAX SCHERZER UH280 1.50
2010 TOPPS BUSTER POSEY 2 1.00
2010 TOPPS UPDATE MIKE (GIANCARLO) STANTON US50 1.00
2011 TOPPS FREDDIE FREEMAN 145 1.00
2011 TOPPS UPDATE PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT US47 1.00
2011 TOPPS UPDATE JOSE ALTUVE US132 1.00
2011 TOPPS UPDATE MIKE TROUT US175 1.50
2013 TOPPS MANNY MACHADO 270 1.00
2013 TOPPS UPDATE NOLAN ARENADO US259 1.00
2014 TOPPS UPDATE MOOKIE BETTS BATTING US26 1.00
2014 TOPPS UPDATE JACOB DeGROM THROWING US50 1.50
2017 TOPPS AARON JUDGE CATCHING 287 1.00

500HR, 3000H, 300W were all auto-HOF induction numbers. Is the bar being raised?

What if Kingman hit 500HRs? Does anybody think he wouldn't have been voted in? His BA probably would have been close to .233 if he were able to continue. If he retired in 1989 instead of 1986, I think the HOF voters would have eventually given him a pass. The voters were probably thankful he didn't get that far because that lifetime BA would have been a hard sell.

Stanton is the next up of active players approaching 500HR. He's 47 away. This year he jacked a bunch at a pretty impressive rate (HR/10.4 AB). If he were to somehow continue at that pace, he'd be at 500HRs in less than a full season of at bats. He'd have 500HRs in < 7K at bats. That's impressive. It'd be hard not to vote him in. I suppose his overall stats aren't highly impressive but 500HRs is 500HRs. He'll probably be over .500 for slugging and his OPS at even .850 (if it drops that low) isn't bad. His lifetime BA (.258) at this point isn't horrible.

Just my 2 cents worth. Not trying to start any crap, just wanted to put some food for thought out there.

Edited to add - think Harold Baines, then think not inducting a dozen other players that are borderline or less.

.
.
.
.

I’ve bugged the set registry person for a year about adding Ohtani to this registry but I have not heard anything.

Fried is a sneaky candidate. He is probably only about half way from where he would need to be to warrant entry into the Hall, and he doesn't rack up a lot of K's, so his dominance is not as visceral. But he has an interesting case.

His career ERA+ is 141. That's tied for 19th of all-time for pitchers with 1000+ innings. And among the people ahead of him are:

- 3 relievers
- 4 Negro League pitchers
- 4 deadball era pitchers

The remaining 7 pitchers are: Clayton Kershaw, Pedro Martinez, Jacob DeGrom, Lefty Grove, Walter Johnson, Roger Clemens and Brandon Webb.

Webb played too briefly to warrant HOF consideration and DeGrom is a question mark. The rest are arguably the most dominant pitchers in baseball history. And for 1000+ innings to this point, Fried has matched that.

Don't see Mattingly or Utley

Lindor, Ohtani, Ramirez, Soto should all be added

Ramirez 2013 7x All Star
Lindor 2015 5x All Star - I see him on the list now
Ohtani 2018 5x All Star, 2 WS rings, 3 MVP, ROY
Soto 2018 4x All Star, WS ring

Cal Raleigh 2021 maybe a little early 1x All Star, MLB Catcher and Switch Hitter HR record
Yamamoto 2024 maybe a little early but is definitely on the radar with 1x All Star, 2 WS rings, WS MVP

Agree! As a Yankee fan, Stanton needs to be more consistent.

7-8 years ago I had Cano and Pedroia on my HOF watch list but PEDS and injury derailed both respectively. Pedroia can thank Machado for shortening his career 😡

Hands down I think it's Lou Whitaker. Arguably the best 2nd basemen of the 1980's and a partner in the best double play combination in history with Alan Trammell. His numbers compare favorably with Ryne Sandberg and Joe Morgan.

If he played for the Yankees he would already in the Hall of Fame.

Who since Rizzuto got in because he was a Yankee? It hasn't helped Maris or Munson or Mattingly or Pettitte.