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I think I'm a relatively young collector (early 30s) and I have a group of friends who are similarly young people. No one other than myself is interested even vaguely in cards, never mind considering investing in them. None of them have a history in the hobby and I still remain convinced there is very little interest from normal every day people in cards.
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I think the part of the Hobby that sees a bit of the drop off is the lower end vintage. What I mean is your Graded A-3 Cards, will probably dip back a bit. I think your high end vintage won't necessarily rise but certainly maintain its value. Unless some sort of Major market correction happens.
As a side note I'm even more upset that the Jordan RC I have, turned out to be a fake. As I would've sold it off by now and made a healthy amount of money. |
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I could see that happening for a card like the Wagner or 52 mantle the same way the uninitiated invest in Picasso when they decide to turn to art. But the all important question to ask is what would make someone interested in anything but the marquee cards who otherwise doesn't care about baseball cards.
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Because regardless of the articles in SI or on ESPN in the last year, the vast majority of every day people don't have any idea what's going on in the card market (and still assume that it's just a childish hobby). Even though there's obviously the segment who have gotten newly covid-involved, it's still nowhere near the "oh it's so mainstream now" situation that some claim. |
I can only speak for myself of course but I don't know very many guys who haven't bought a pack of cards in their life. Unless you were an addict when you were a kid I don't see you becoming one suddenly as an adult.
I of course agree that a return to childhood is a major motivator for adults to collect anything. But you would have had to have been passionate about whatever it is you're returning to. Not just casually participated. I casually collected Pokemon cards when they came out for one summer as a kid. Do I have any interest in investing in a Charizard? No. Do I have any interest in buying a common instead? Also no. |
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Now, you just auction it off on ebay and get paid what it's worth whenever you want. |
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Basically it would be the pwcc vault, with a significantly reduced maintenance fees to scale up, and when an investor wants to sell his card, he can sell it in a marketplace or auction format for a much smaller nominal fee. Say flat fee instead of percentage. The buyer has the right to demand settlement upon purchase and pay shipping, or keep the card in the repository fee free for a year... |
BST the bitch and save the vig.
The price rises are fueling the momentum in a true FOMO cycle. The cards I am tracking are not the five and six figure headliners but they are setting price records every day. A card I thought of as a reasonable buy at $500 in October is a steal at $1500 today. |
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With the advent of eBay, not only can I find that card - I can decide I want it at 10 pm, then go online and there are likely a dozen or more of them at my fingertips that can be here next Tuesday. Trust me as an introverted kid growing up the late 80's and early 90's - for all it's problems - eBay and online selling is quite literally a dream come true. Oh! And then there were all those old MAD magazines I could never find... |
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But, it seems like QE and the money printing is a stimulus for the (semi)wealthy. My investment portfolio was down 42% on March 23rd last year. Since then, my investments (and net worth) have more than doubled. Based on income, I don't qualify for the $2,000. But it seems that I get the a 10x factor of that benefit every time they juice the economy with more money. This could be just coincidental, but that money feeds the market and it feeds corporate earnings and that drives valuations. I make a nice living with a paid off house and college saved, so I should be one of those people that are being described that are buying into the market. However, I bought one card in 2020 and just track auctions and prices so far this year. I have a memory of 2012-2015 prices and my mind won't seem to ever let me pull the trigger anymore. So the person buying the PSA 7 Mantle must be playing in a different stratosphere and considers it an asset class. I have a tough enough time leaving my collection in cards versus converting to equities. When you factor in the risk of fire and theft as well as the eventual costs with estate taxes at 28% and auction house fees, it just doesn't seem to make sense long term. The fact that someone would have several hundred grand in liquid cash to add to a safe or safe deposit box somewhere just seems hard to believe. It is not like they aren't getting good returns in equities right now. But there is some crazy money out there, I guess. |
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Yes, I agree with your thoughts. The overall economic stimulus definitely helps. I was referring to lots of people who believe the 1200 or whatever payment they received was helping drive this train.. which I’d disagree. However, I’d agree with your theory. |
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I'm seeing lots of people talking about this being a bubble, unsustainable, and so forth. So my question is this:
Has there ever been a time when vintage cards have dropped in price? For more than 6 months? Not talking about the cratering of modern nonsense in the early 90s but vintage - Mantle, Ruth, Cobb, and so on. ??? |
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I always thought the best chance of solving the problem was simply forums like this becoming huge. If the traffic at places like this got anywhere near even 1/3 to 1/2 of ebay levels, we'd really have something. |
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With the big guys (especially Mantle, duh!), I believe the prices are here to stay and up, up and away they will continue to go. Sure, some of the less valuable and more overproduced cards will decline, but I don't see any sort of market-wide drop in cards of the all-time-greats ever coming. Now, when you see the ridiculous prices being asked for lesser HOF'ers and whatnot, etc., that thing is unsustainable!!! No way that's ever going to last.
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Who said iconic vintage is expensive?
This 1933 Goudey Ruth is 1/2-off ... literally. https://www.ebay.com/itm/Freshly-Gra...kAAOSwAgFgJGVp |
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As others in this thread have said, I fully believe the reason for the card prices to skyrocket is that we are awash in money supply looking for a place to land when interest rates are basically 0. And that is exacerbated by the pandemic where families who have jobs are saving a lot of money because they are not going on vacations or eating out as much, so there is even more money looking for a place to be spent. Therefore, I don't really expect the bubble to pop until we start seeing inflation and rising interest rates. Also, I don't think the bubble is as bad in prewar as it is in modern. I somewhat justified the prices of modern in the past because hey, if you wanted to get an autograph of Michael Jordan, how much are you going to have to pay for it? MJ is a billionaire so he doesn't need to go to card shows to sign, so it's never going to be easy to get one of the autos of the big stars like him or Lebron, etc. You might was well buy a card with his auto on it, so that adds to the premium there. However, prices these days have just gotten completely out of hand given the supply out there. Given what I just said, why don't I just sell out if I believe the market is going to crumble? It's that collector part of me that has a hard time doing that. I have cards in my possession that I've wanted for a very long time, and some of them have pops that are very low, that if I sell, I may never be able to buy back again even if the market goes down. For the other cards with higher pops, it's still back to my collector possessiveness. I just love having that card in my collection even if I could get a bundle by selling it. I don't need the money right now, so there is no urge to let it go. Of course, I will probably regret this all if the card market crashes. :) |
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Omg!!!
i thought the Jordan market had topped out, but i was way wrong...crazy prices for his second, third and fourth year graded cards also.... I cant hold any longer, i am moving some of mine now, yes, they may go higher, but anytime i can sell for 5,6,7,8X what i paid i cant be unhappy. These are not rare or low pop at all...... This is INSANE!! :eek:
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Never a bad thing to take a profit and it's tough to time the market. I bought an '81 Topps Larry Bird PSA 9 in July of 2019 for $60. A year later I saw it was trading for over $500 and my eyes damn near popped out of my head, so I sold it this past summer and made a huge ROI.
I took a peak and the card is now selling for something like 6x what I sold it for. Ouch, but like I said, hard to time the market. |
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My first purchases last March were Topps/Donruss/Fleer Mattingly rookies - all PSA 10. My next purchases were Gehrig/Dimaggio/WaJo and Speaker.
After seeing some of the prices the last month I can go ahead and admit to myself that I'm not an investor and these aren't investments. They're for me to put in a case on my wall and enjoy. My wife put it nicely. She said, "It's nice to know you can sell them if we need the money, but right now we don't, so enjoy them." ...wonder if that's because she thinks they were all $200. ;) |
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Can't think of a better time in the history of card collecting to sell into the surge in pricing. But like most other collectors, I just can't come to grips with letting go of my babies. Trying to "time the market" rarely coincides with a real world scenario when you actually need the money and are forced to sell.
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All i can say its nuts
I just sold two psa lebron topps chrome psa 10s . I paid $1200 thought i was crazy ..will not say what they sold for . Meet the person in ct. 23 yrs old nuff said. I like the friends ive made in this hobby. I love selling $20 cards . I have shaq and iverson raw rookies i paid .75 for if you need them ...ok you get the picture .its insane
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The last call to sell at the market’s top is potentially upon us. I just read multiple articles (from credible news sources) that COVID cases have dropped 77% in the past 6 weeks. More than 15% (U.S. population) have already received the vaccine and that number only increases each day.
Physicians (from highly credible medical institutions) just said that herd immunity will potentially take effect as early as this April. If so, things will quickly open up, especially around summer, and people will reallocate their current card budget funds to vacations, concerts, bars, restaurants, experiences, etc. Some people will exit the hobby as quickly as they entered it. Some will remain, but spend less money on cards. The current demand level for cards will decrease. Those that completely exit the hobby may want to sell. If so, this will also increase the supply. Reduced demand and increased available supply is great for us collectors (not investors). Plus, how many cards that were previously in dusty closets and attics were re-discovered during the pandemic and graded or brought to the market? Vintage supply, at least card’s to the market, will increase in the near future. Sure my collection’s value will significantly decrease when this plays out, but I don’t care. All the gains were just paper ones anyway. I only sell or trade when I upgrade an existing card. I’m ready for prices to crater, so I can resume purchasing cards on my wishlist. I can afford the cards on my list, but not in the grades I want. I’m priced out of the grades. I’ve had to settle for lower grades, and refuse to do it anymore. Those that are considering selling may want to make the move. Sell at today’s prices, and then rebuy the same cards (and a lot more, or in better grades) at tomorrow’s prices. No one can perfectly time the market. We potentially are at the peak and may begin descending the other side soon. Let’s hope for the sake of people’s well-being - physical, mental, financial, spiritual, etc.! |
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I agree on many aspects pointed out above, pretty much all except I don’t believe key vintage high end cards will not pull back that much Ext+-Nrmt Cobbb, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, Aaron, and Mays. |
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Before you sell your cards. Here is a 2020 article for perspective. He was right, those goudey Ruths shot right through those rising price points. You held this long, why sell now - you can’t time the markets but the momo definitely goes longer than we expect... dang too bad I only have one goudey Ruth below. https://prewarcards.com/2020/03/07/b...ut-of-control/ |
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At some point, mine will be SODL! |
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Even low-grade cards are getting ridiculous. A ‘53 Topps Mantle 1 for $3k? WoW. https://www.ebay.com/itm/1953-Topps-...QAAOSwi09gEKcH |
Joshua that Ruth is mouth watering. That's a keeper for life
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These points of view never cease to amaze me:
- "I don't care if the value of my assets drop" - "The gains are only on paper" Something's liquid worth is what matters, regardless of whether or not it's "on paper". It doesn't matter what you paid (except for tax purposes). And as far as hoping that your cards will lose a lot of their value.....I get if someone wants to focus on just collecting, but there's so much more to a market collapsing other than "being able to buy more of what you want". Dealers' livelihoods are harmed. People will have less of an estate to leave to their heirs. Or some may hope to liquidate some of their collection to make their retirement better. There's a lot more to it than flippers losing their ass and exiting the market |
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I do not view them as asserts. I only purchase cards with money I am willing to part ways with and never recover. If others do not do the same that is their business and problem. As far as a collapse, all I want is for prices to return to pre-COVID, normal levels. I guess you’ve never shorted a stock? If you have, you do realize you are rooting for the stock to crater, which affects other people’s life’s and potentially everything you mentioned, right? |
If the idea of a pullback from the current sales prices is disconcerting then the answer is simple: sell it all. Take the profit and ride out the next downturn.
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And yes, I would be aware of that if I shorted a stock. Have never had to consider that dilemma, because it's never been a part of my trading. |
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And I remember that crackerjack box as well. That was a treat to hold in person! Thx. |
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For some people selling now would enable them to pay off their house, buy a house, diversify into other long term investments. I just cant see a place where it is hold forever, albeit the inevitable will happen along the way. My only question if I sold everything would be "what's next". In short, I'd love to add a 52 mantle, but wont feel bad about not having one, more so at these prices. If there is some crash, I may revisit, but to me the price not justifiable. No FOMO here! |
Not just BB Cards that people are afraid are in a bubble.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s?srnd=premium |
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that said, as long as the Fed is determined to pin rates at zero, it just makes sense to be invested in stocks and other risky assets like coins, cards, etc. the jump in rates at this point is more due to inflation fear than actual inflation.. i think at the point we see stronger evidence of the latter, that will be the true catalyst. |
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It’s a Shit or Get off the Pot Moment. Keep and Be Happy, Sell and Be Happy, just remember if in a year or two you try to get what stuff your stuff is selling for right now don’t cry if you can’t, and if you do sell now and it goes up way more in two years don’t cry either, that’s all.
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Yup. I can afford it to go down 40% and my collection still up 2 times what I paid for. I'm happy wht goes up and won't feel a thing if it drops a lot. And I pretty much only collect vintage . I can hold another 10-15 years and I'm sure the value will retain more than what I paid . |
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Prices may still be going up, but this seems a little overly optimistic:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1911-T3-2-T...0AAOSwVrtgMqOL |
Got a chuckle over the "shit or get off the pot moment".
Just crazy the current market. Am struggling with sell/don't sell now myself. Prices seem too good to be true, but then I don't really need the money now, will hold little longer until springtime. Ususally the market heats up in April/May - spring, baseball starting, NBA close to playoffs. Probably hold, see what spring REA auction has and then results. Could be a good gauge of scarce vintage prices. Noticed a 1949 Bowman Paige PSA 8 listed on ebay, asking $75.k, oh my. PWCC recently sold on a bit off center for $25.k Don't laugh, this could be well over $50.k in a year if market doesn't collapse. |
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I believe we will see transitory inflation for reasons above. But we are nowhere close to full employment, and the uneven distribution of wealth from asset reflation is an unbalanced economy that will not allow a level of sustained inflation over the short/intermediate term that would force the fed to change course over the next 3 years. And sure we are finally seeing a rise in real yield (nominal less inflation), but for perspective we rose from negative real yields to zero, a step away from Japanification, but not an endorsement of a secular rise in real yields. Bottom line asset/commodity prices are rising, wages are not, squeezing the have nots and keeping the system accommodative. Bringing it back to cards, the last couple of cycles since the 90’s card bubble have shown real yields, demand for liquidity and employment are arguably equally (if not more) strong coefficients to vintage card prices than the stock market’s wealth effect and speculation factor. Cards are a non-income producing, store-of-wealth asset. In that sense, moderate inflation is positive and real rates are negative to card prices. And while real yields have increased from negative rates, it’s still zero... while inflation expectations are rising dramatically (the fed is welcoming this as they want to run hot over their 2% target). This is supportive for cards. Demand for liquidity is another factor on supply. Cards are a a source of liquidity and as the demand for liquidity increase so do the available cards in the market. Right now, the Fed electronically flooded the system with liquidity and the excess liquidity spilled over into the card market. The Fed has telegraphed accommodative conditions to 2024 (and the other central banks are in concert with that timeline - a race to zero in their respective fiat currencies), and probably yield curve control thereafter (because of our unbalanced risks). So I expect general liquidity to continue to be extraordinary (as we follow the longer term paths of Weimar/Argentina, where debt can be only repaid thru reflation, or dimished purchasing power of the currency used to pay back the debt). To put into perspective, we tried to unwind the fed’s balance sheet in 2013, but had to do a course correct as the market threw a tantrum, and again in 2018. The fed’s balance sheet in 2013, 2018, and today was 3 Trillion, 4T and 7.4T, respectively. Add the trillion dollar annual deficit the treasury will run - putting us deeper in the hole and making it more impossible for us to get out conventionally. Employment is a distorted signal right now. In the past, it was (and will again be) a factor for liquidity demand, impacting the amount of card supply. But in our situation, we have a moratorium to pay rent and student loans, receive expanded unemployment and stimulus checks, and business loan forgiveness. There is suppressed demand for liquidity in a time where the system is flooded for liquidity. At the more intermediate term, our employment rate has improved, but we still have tons of slack from an elevated rate and lower labor force participation. We have a long way to go to bring us back to full employment, so the fed will continue to be accommodative, and possibly resort to yield curve control (which suppresses the real yields not inflation), once the stimulus sugar highs wear off. This is also supporting card prices. But will a market correction have a significant adverse affect on vintage card prices? The market has experienced significant market multiple expansion since 2018 - all the way to 2000 dot com bubble levels. We can be in a flat and skinny scenario, where the stock market stalls as the earnings grow into its valuation, but the conditions for card prices (and assets) remain supportive as we continue to transfer private debt into public debt, run hot on inflation with suppressed real yields. I’m not saying we will not correct in a stock market correction. There is too much speculation right now in this card market not not have “beta” with the equity markets. But the extent of the impact is more micro within the card market (ie prewar will have less beta than modern due to the difference in magnitude of their price increases and the marketplace players are simply different - modern is more “hot” money). I do believe certain prewar card prices have transitioned into new levels for the reasons above, which will prove to be more stable than we would expect if we have a small correction in the market. That said I’m taking this extraordinary demand and liquidity to reposition my collection even more so to key players that would retain liquidity and value over the longer term. By the end of this, I’ll probably just end up owning nothing but Cobbs and Ruths. -biased viewpoints from a HODL(er) |
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Btw what is HODL(er) stand for?
Thanks |
A short personal story about card price appreciation: I consigned to a well-known AH a PSA RC of Rickie Henderson for a recent auction. I was told it should fetch about $1,000, which what I sort of figured given recent sales of the card at the time. It sold for $1,100, and I was a happy boy.
Fast forward 3 months to the present and Rickie is all over Ebay at between $3,000 -3800. And we all know there are a bazillion Rickeys out there. Good Grief. I have a couple in for grading at PSA which will probably make their way back to me when the Mars Rover completes its mission and Rickies are worth $25. |
John, How do you think I felt selling a Jordan rookie in PSA 9 for a consignor for 16k and being happy with the sale...
...at the time. |
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It’s Reddit/Wall Street Bets lingo for holding onto an investment. |
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its crypto lingo |
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Your conscience about it speaks very highly of your character though |
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I sold two lebron chrome 2003 rookies psa 10 66 k for both ,,a 24 year old kid bought them ,,i guess the market stinks ,,,
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prime yrs for tech workers are fresh grad -30 by the time reaches 40s - once got laid off, pretty much done those new to the industry get a lot of stock options, maybe they use the stocks to buy cards |
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Anyone notice the 1933G Ruths in the REA auction? That's some real money. |
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I sold
Three 1981 topps basketball sets $660 for all i reached out to buy them back $1200 firm its insane lol
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A '54 Topps Jackie Robinson PSA 1 sold two weeks ago on eBay for $315. Huh?
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Did it double in about 3 months or so? I think the inventory is down on Jackie. dealers typically buy the card and immediately relist it for double. Then sell it when and for what they can for a profit. That's been the business model it seems for years and the prices have just caught up. Now, You have dealers buying cards like 52 Jackie for 13K and then relisting for 80K. Add "private bidders" to the shadiest Curt Shilling F in the world and this is what we get. It's a supply and demand issue I believe, though I've never been good at economics:) I'm enjoying the explosion and I'll enjoy the decline just as much. I always liked Jackie |
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