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packs 02-08-2021 09:59 AM

I think I'm a relatively young collector (early 30s) and I have a group of friends who are similarly young people. No one other than myself is interested even vaguely in cards, never mind considering investing in them. None of them have a history in the hobby and I still remain convinced there is very little interest from normal every day people in cards.

egri 02-08-2021 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy (Post 2065873)
True. I think the stimulus plays very little part in this. I definitely agree with the basic rules of economics posted earlier though and they are absolutely in play here. My take.... modern is already starting to decline. The big money is shifting from 5-6 figure purchases on semi-unproven players and moving towards the GOATS. Hence what Jordan, Lebron, Kobe, Trout, Brady, and some others are doing. From there, it will continue to pump into safe vintage... Mays, Mantle, Ruth, Cobb, Jackie, etc... So I think vintage still has some more rising to go. It’s trickling down from 80s/90s GOATS because that’s the generation predominantly driving this bus. Those were the players they grew up with.

Now the question becomes money. Where does it all come from and how much is someone wiling to “invest”. As was said earlier, lack of trust in stock market, or asset allocation / diversify, Hedge funds, yadda yadda. More big money is coming into the industry for their portfolio. No question. I would say a large chunk of that money is from young 20-40 year olds who don’t believe in history repeating itself. They hit it big with crypto, GME, Tesla, or flipping modern over the last year. They now have no problem moving 6 figures around in baseball cards. And yes... we all have had an incredible amount of free time these days. All while not spending as much as we did pre-covid (generalizing here...). Lack of eating out, vacations, doing something other than sitting in front of a device.... Once that shifts, there will definitely be a slow down in demand. I’d almost guarantee that. The question is how long until that effects this wild market.

Also with interest rates being this low, debt is cheap. Not a whole lot of incentive to pay off loans early or keep money parked in bonds and savings accounts. Thus far, stocks, real estate and alternative investments (cards, crypto, etc) have been benefiting, but I think when interest rates rise again, we’ll see money get pulled out of here and prices start to recede. Maybe not to where they were before, but below these levels.

Seven 02-08-2021 10:20 AM

I think the part of the Hobby that sees a bit of the drop off is the lower end vintage. What I mean is your Graded A-3 Cards, will probably dip back a bit. I think your high end vintage won't necessarily rise but certainly maintain its value. Unless some sort of Major market correction happens.

As a side note I'm even more upset that the Jordan RC I have, turned out to be a fake. As I would've sold it off by now and made a healthy amount of money.

JohnnyKilroy 02-08-2021 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs (Post 2065875)
I think I'm a relatively young collector (early 30s) and I have a group of friends who are similarly young people. No one other than myself is interested even vaguely in cards, never mind considering investing in them. None of them have a history in the hobby and I still remain convinced there is very little interest from normal every day people in cards.

I use this as another indicator that there’s still growth. I have similar experiences when I mention spending big money on cards... I get the weird look like “you spend 15K on a piece of cardboard??”. The everyday people may not want to invest in cards, but until the day comes where I mention baseball cards and they answer with “oh yeah, I’ve heard a lot of people doing that”.. I think there’s still time. We aren’t quite at the “Stock tips from the shoeshine boy” yet.

packs 02-08-2021 10:38 AM

I could see that happening for a card like the Wagner or 52 mantle the same way the uninitiated invest in Picasso when they decide to turn to art. But the all important question to ask is what would make someone interested in anything but the marquee cards who otherwise doesn't care about baseball cards.

packs 02-08-2021 10:38 AM

double post

JohnnyKilroy 02-08-2021 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs (Post 2065893)
I could see that happening for a card like the Wagner or 52 mantle the same way the uninitiated invest in Picasso when they decide to turn to art. But the all important question to ask is what would make someone interested in anything but the marquee cards who otherwise doesn't care about baseball cards.

Good point! I suppose my answer would be using myself as the example. Collected as a kid for fun, obviously not as investments. Stopped collecting when life started. Fast forward to last year and the whispers of card industry booming start. You now have a group of people re-kindling childhood memories with an investment twist. The example I gave above that mentioned getting looks from friends who thought I was nuts... most of those friends collected cards as a kid. My thoughts are they are in somewhat of “uninitiated” when it comes to investing in cards or even a lack of knowledge on big cards even though they had 1000 Chris Sabo rookies. There might be enough spark to get them to realize they can combine sports, childhood memories, and investing all together.

cardsagain74 02-08-2021 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy (Post 2065927)
The example I gave above that mentioned getting looks from friends who thought I was nuts... most of those friends collected cards as a kid

I still get those looks whenever I bring up getting back into cards.

Because regardless of the articles in SI or on ESPN in the last year, the vast majority of every day people don't have any idea what's going on in the card market (and still assume that it's just a childish hobby). Even though there's obviously the segment who have gotten newly covid-involved, it's still nowhere near the "oh it's so mainstream now" situation that some claim.

packs 02-08-2021 12:30 PM

I can only speak for myself of course but I don't know very many guys who haven't bought a pack of cards in their life. Unless you were an addict when you were a kid I don't see you becoming one suddenly as an adult.

I of course agree that a return to childhood is a major motivator for adults to collect anything. But you would have had to have been passionate about whatever it is you're returning to. Not just casually participated. I casually collected Pokemon cards when they came out for one summer as a kid. Do I have any interest in investing in a Charizard? No. Do I have any interest in buying a common instead? Also no.

DanP 02-08-2021 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy (Post 2065889)
I use this as another indicator that there’s still growth. I have similar experiences when I mention spending big money on cards... I get the weird look like “you spend 15K on a piece of cardboard??”. The everyday people may not want to invest in cards, but until the day comes where I mention baseball cards and they answer with “oh yeah, I’ve heard a lot of people doing that”.. I think there’s still time. We aren’t quite at the “Stock tips from the shoeshine boy” yet.

I have a friend who says the same thing. I reminded him he spent $30k on a rock (ancient gold coin) but WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE? Neither will feed you if you are starving. Both are only worth what someone is willing to pay. I could argue that it's easier to liquidate my card collection than for him to sell his coin (I think, guessing since his coin is not graded).

cardsagain74 02-08-2021 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanP (Post 2065933)
I could argue that it's easier to liquidate my card collection than for him to sell his coin

The liquidity of the new digital marketplace benefits collectibles so, so much. Back in the junk wax era and before, a dealer could have stuff like a 1961 Topps Al Kaline sit in his display forever unless it was highly discounted (especially at small town card shows).

Now, you just auction it off on ebay and get paid what it's worth whenever you want.

joshuanip 02-08-2021 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsagain74 (Post 2065947)
The liquidity of the new digital marketplace benefits collectibles so, so much. Back in the junk wax era and before, a dealer could have stuff like a 1961 Topps Al Kaline sit in his display forever unless it was highly discounted (especially at small town card shows).

Now, you just auction it off on ebay and get paid what it's worth whenever you want.

The digital marketplace helps, but to take it to the next level, we need to reduce transaction costs. This will never happen and a little crazy talk, but a page from the stock market, if we can get critical mass in a central repository, then we can reduce storage/transaction costs as a whole, and with a card depository, you don’t have the escrow issues we have right now, which will bypass the 10-20% juice we give to auction houses.

Basically it would be the pwcc vault, with a significantly reduced maintenance fees to scale up, and when an investor wants to sell his card, he can sell it in a marketplace or auction format for a much smaller nominal fee. Say flat fee instead of percentage. The buyer has the right to demand settlement upon purchase and pay shipping, or keep the card in the repository fee free for a year...

Exhibitman 02-08-2021 04:04 PM

BST the bitch and save the vig.

The price rises are fueling the momentum in a true FOMO cycle. The cards I am tracking are not the five and six figure headliners but they are setting price records every day. A card I thought of as a reasonable buy at $500 in October is a steal at $1500 today.

jchcollins 02-08-2021 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsagain74 (Post 2065947)
The liquidity of the new digital marketplace benefits collectibles so, so much. Back in the junk wax era and before, a dealer could have stuff like a 1961 Topps Al Kaline sit in his display forever unless it was highly discounted (especially at small town card shows).

Now, you just auction it off on ebay and get paid what it's worth whenever you want.

Exactly. In the 21st century we finally have the technology to make hobby markets work efficiently. Very similar to my example of being a kid in 1987 - I'd see some card I wanted (maybe even if it was just a cool looking common...) in Beckett or Baseball Cards Magazine. Then I'd have to wait months to go to a show near me. Then at the show, 50/50 chance if it was something slightly nobody there would have the card anyway.

With the advent of eBay, not only can I find that card - I can decide I want it at 10 pm, then go online and there are likely a dozen or more of them at my fingertips that can be here next Tuesday. Trust me as an introverted kid growing up the late 80's and early 90's - for all it's problems - eBay and online selling is quite literally a dream come true. Oh! And then there were all those old MAD magazines I could never find...

kailes2872 02-08-2021 05:11 PM

Quote:

True. I think the stimulus plays very little part in this.
I am not an economist and every time I try to play one on TV, I get smacked down by someone who actually knows what they are talking about, so forgive me...

But, it seems like QE and the money printing is a stimulus for the (semi)wealthy. My investment portfolio was down 42% on March 23rd last year. Since then, my investments (and net worth) have more than doubled. Based on income, I don't qualify for the $2,000. But it seems that I get the a 10x factor of that benefit every time they juice the economy with more money. This could be just coincidental, but that money feeds the market and it feeds corporate earnings and that drives valuations.

I make a nice living with a paid off house and college saved, so I should be one of those people that are being described that are buying into the market. However, I bought one card in 2020 and just track auctions and prices so far this year. I have a memory of 2012-2015 prices and my mind won't seem to ever let me pull the trigger anymore. So the person buying the PSA 7 Mantle must be playing in a different stratosphere and considers it an asset class. I have a tough enough time leaving my collection in cards versus converting to equities. When you factor in the risk of fire and theft as well as the eventual costs with estate taxes at 28% and auction house fees, it just doesn't seem to make sense long term. The fact that someone would have several hundred grand in liquid cash to add to a safe or safe deposit box somewhere just seems hard to believe. It is not like they aren't getting good returns in equities right now. But there is some crazy money out there, I guess.

JohnnyKilroy 02-08-2021 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kailes2872 (Post 2066059)
I am not an economist and every time I try to play one on TV, I get smacked down by someone who actually knows what they are talking about, so forgive me...

But, it seems like QE and the money printing is a stimulus for the (semi)wealthy. My investment portfolio was down 42% on March 23rd last year. Since then, my investments (and net worth) have more than doubled. Based on income, I don't qualify for the $2,000. But it seems that I get the a 10x factor of that benefit every time they juice the economy with more money. This could be just coincidental, but that money feeds the market and it feeds corporate earnings and that drives valuations.

I make a nice living with a paid off house and college saved, so I should be one of those people that are being described that are buying into the market. However, I bought one card in 2020 and just track auctions and prices so far this year. I have a memory of 2012-2015 prices and my mind won't seem to ever let me pull the trigger anymore. So the person buying the PSA 7 Mantle must be playing in a different stratosphere and considers it an asset class. I have a tough enough time leaving my collection in cards versus converting to equities. When you factor in the risk of fire and theft as well as the eventual costs with estate taxes at 28% and auction house fees, it just doesn't seem to make sense long term. The fact that someone would have several hundred grand in liquid cash to add to a safe or safe deposit box somewhere just seems hard to believe. It is not like they aren't getting good returns in equities right now. But there is some crazy money out there, I guess.


Yes, I agree with your thoughts. The overall economic stimulus definitely helps. I was referring to lots of people who believe the 1200 or whatever payment they received was helping drive this train.. which I’d disagree. However, I’d agree with your theory.

Arazi4442 02-08-2021 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469 (Post 2065857)
LOL!! Card rich, cash poor. After they flip the cards, they will have a lot more than $150k, guaranteed.

Never sold $150k worth of cards but don’t you owe income tax on sales like that?

Tabe 02-08-2021 05:52 PM

I'm seeing lots of people talking about this being a bubble, unsustainable, and so forth. So my question is this:

Has there ever been a time when vintage cards have dropped in price? For more than 6 months? Not talking about the cratering of modern nonsense in the early 90s but vintage - Mantle, Ruth, Cobb, and so on.

???

cardsagain74 02-08-2021 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshuanip (Post 2066018)
The digital marketplace helps, but to take it to the next level, we need to reduce transaction costs. This will never happen and a little crazy talk, but a page from the stock market, if we can get critical mass in a central repository, then we can reduce storage/transaction costs as a whole, and with a card depository, you don’t have the escrow issues we have right now, which will bypass the 10-20% juice we give to auction houses.

Basically it would be the pwcc vault, with a significantly reduced maintenance fees to scale up, and when an investor wants to sell his card, he can sell it in a marketplace or auction format for a much smaller nominal fee. Say flat fee instead of percentage. The buyer has the right to demand settlement upon purchase and pay shipping, or keep the card in the repository fee free for a year...

The transaction costs are a major issue and often really overlooked (especially during a raging markets), but I can't imagine the logistics of a central depository being feasible for cards. And even if it were, most people like to have big parts of their collection in hand to look at.

I always thought the best chance of solving the problem was simply forums like this becoming huge. If the traffic at places like this got anywhere near even 1/3 to 1/2 of ebay levels, we'd really have something.

conor912 02-08-2021 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman (Post 2066031)
BST the bitch and save the vig.

I think we just found the new Net54 tshirt slogan.

JollyElm 02-08-2021 07:43 PM

With the big guys (especially Mantle, duh!), I believe the prices are here to stay and up, up and away they will continue to go. Sure, some of the less valuable and more overproduced cards will decline, but I don't see any sort of market-wide drop in cards of the all-time-greats ever coming. Now, when you see the ridiculous prices being asked for lesser HOF'ers and whatnot, etc., that thing is unsustainable!!! No way that's ever going to last.

Gobucsmagic74 02-09-2021 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs (Post 2065875)
I think I'm a relatively young collector (early 30s) and I have a group of friends who are similarly young people. No one other than myself is interested even vaguely in cards, never mind considering investing in them. None of them have a history in the hobby and I still remain convinced there is very little interest from normal every day people in cards.

Then you aren't doing your job!

troutbum97 02-13-2021 11:50 AM

Who said iconic vintage is expensive?

This 1933 Goudey Ruth is 1/2-off ... literally.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Freshly-Gra...kAAOSwAgFgJGVp

glchen 02-13-2021 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tabe (Post 2066073)
I'm seeing lots of people talking about this being a bubble, unsustainable, and so forth. So my question is this:

Has there ever been a time when vintage cards have dropped in price? For more than 6 months? Not talking about the cratering of modern nonsense in the early 90s but vintage - Mantle, Ruth, Cobb, and so on.

???

Chris, this is what folks said in 2008 before the real estate crash. Has anyone ever seen housing prices go down, especially in the big markets like California? Just because it never happened before doesn't mean we're not in a bubble now.

As others in this thread have said, I fully believe the reason for the card prices to skyrocket is that we are awash in money supply looking for a place to land when interest rates are basically 0. And that is exacerbated by the pandemic where families who have jobs are saving a lot of money because they are not going on vacations or eating out as much, so there is even more money looking for a place to be spent. Therefore, I don't really expect the bubble to pop until we start seeing inflation and rising interest rates.

Also, I don't think the bubble is as bad in prewar as it is in modern. I somewhat justified the prices of modern in the past because hey, if you wanted to get an autograph of Michael Jordan, how much are you going to have to pay for it? MJ is a billionaire so he doesn't need to go to card shows to sign, so it's never going to be easy to get one of the autos of the big stars like him or Lebron, etc. You might was well buy a card with his auto on it, so that adds to the premium there. However, prices these days have just gotten completely out of hand given the supply out there.

Given what I just said, why don't I just sell out if I believe the market is going to crumble? It's that collector part of me that has a hard time doing that. I have cards in my possession that I've wanted for a very long time, and some of them have pops that are very low, that if I sell, I may never be able to buy back again even if the market goes down. For the other cards with higher pops, it's still back to my collector possessiveness. I just love having that card in my collection even if I could get a bundle by selling it. I don't need the money right now, so there is no urge to let it go. Of course, I will probably regret this all if the card market crashes. :)

Oscar_Stanage 02-13-2021 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by troutbum97 (Post 2067942)
Who said iconic vintage is expensive?

This 1933 Goudey Ruth is 1/2-off ... literally.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Freshly-Gra...kAAOSwAgFgJGVp

Ha. Classic

jbbama 02-14-2021 10:03 AM

Omg!!!
 
i thought the Jordan market had topped out, but i was way wrong...crazy prices for his second, third and fourth year graded cards also.... I cant hold any longer, i am moving some of mine now, yes, they may go higher, but anytime i can sell for 5,6,7,8X what i paid i cant be unhappy. These are not rare or low pop at all...... This is INSANE!! :eek:

Kutcher55 02-14-2021 11:27 AM

Never a bad thing to take a profit and it's tough to time the market. I bought an '81 Topps Larry Bird PSA 9 in July of 2019 for $60. A year later I saw it was trading for over $500 and my eyes damn near popped out of my head, so I sold it this past summer and made a huge ROI.

I took a peak and the card is now selling for something like 6x what I sold it for. Ouch, but like I said, hard to time the market.

Seven 02-14-2021 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kutcher55 (Post 2068392)
Never a bad thing to take a profit and it's tough to time the market. I bought an '81 Topps Larry Bird PSA 9 in July of 2019 for $60. A year later I saw it was trading for over $500 and my eyes damn near popped out of my head, so I sold it this past summer and made a huge ROI.

I took a peak and the card is now selling for something like 6x what I sold it for. Ouch, but like I said, hard to time the market.

Profit is a profit though. It's tough to play the what if game.

WA_HOF_rookie 02-14-2021 11:47 AM

My first purchases last March were Topps/Donruss/Fleer Mattingly rookies - all PSA 10. My next purchases were Gehrig/Dimaggio/WaJo and Speaker.

After seeing some of the prices the last month I can go ahead and admit to myself that I'm not an investor and these aren't investments. They're for me to put in a case on my wall and enjoy.

My wife put it nicely. She said, "It's nice to know you can sell them if we need the money, but right now we don't, so enjoy them."

...wonder if that's because she thinks they were all $200. ;)

Exhibitman 02-14-2021 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbbama (Post 2068358)
i thought the Jordan market had topped out, but i was way wrong...crazy prices for his second, third and fourth year graded cards also.... I cant hold any longer, i am moving some of mine now, yes, they may go higher, but anytime i can sell for 5,6,7,8X what i paid i cant be unhappy. These are not rare or low pop at all...... This is INSANE!! :eek:

I sold two early Jordans into the first wave and took the profit never thinking it would go up from there but they tripled. I then bought another last October that quintupled, so I will probably list it for sale too. Underprice the last sale by 10% and move it out. Getting hard to find things to flip, though.

ajjohnsonsoxfan 02-14-2021 01:30 PM

Can't think of a better time in the history of card collecting to sell into the surge in pricing. But like most other collectors, I just can't come to grips with letting go of my babies. Trying to "time the market" rarely coincides with a real world scenario when you actually need the money and are forced to sell.

rjackson44 02-14-2021 02:19 PM

All i can say its nuts
 
I just sold two psa lebron topps chrome psa 10s . I paid $1200 thought i was crazy ..will not say what they sold for . Meet the person in ct. 23 yrs old nuff said. I like the friends ive made in this hobby. I love selling $20 cards . I have shaq and iverson raw rookies i paid .75 for if you need them ...ok you get the picture .its insane

Tyruscobb 02-20-2021 09:54 AM

The last call to sell at the market’s top is potentially upon us. I just read multiple articles (from credible news sources) that COVID cases have dropped 77% in the past 6 weeks. More than 15% (U.S. population) have already received the vaccine and that number only increases each day.

Physicians (from highly credible medical institutions) just said that herd immunity will potentially take effect as early as this April. If so, things will quickly open up, especially around summer, and people will reallocate their current card budget funds to vacations, concerts, bars, restaurants, experiences, etc.

Some people will exit the hobby as quickly as they entered it. Some will remain, but spend less money on cards. The current demand level for cards will decrease. Those that completely exit the hobby may want to sell. If so, this will also increase the supply. Reduced demand and increased available supply is great for us collectors (not investors). Plus, how many cards that were previously in dusty closets and attics were re-discovered during the pandemic and graded or brought to the market? Vintage supply, at least card’s to the market, will increase in the near future.

Sure my collection’s value will significantly decrease when this plays out, but I don’t care. All the gains were just paper ones anyway. I only sell or trade when I upgrade an existing card. I’m ready for prices to crater, so I can resume purchasing cards on my wishlist. I can afford the cards on my list, but not in the grades I want. I’m priced out of the grades. I’ve had to settle for lower grades, and refuse to do it anymore.

Those that are considering selling may want to make the move. Sell at today’s prices, and then rebuy the same cards (and a lot more, or in better grades) at tomorrow’s prices. No one can perfectly time the market. We potentially are at the peak and may begin descending the other side soon. Let’s hope for the sake of people’s well-being - physical, mental, financial, spiritual, etc.!

Johnny630 02-20-2021 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb (Post 2071108)
The last call to sell at the market’s top is potentially upon us. I just read multiple articles (from credible news sources) that COVID cases have dropped 77% in the past 6 weeks. More than 15% (U.S. population) have already received the vaccine and that number only increases each day.

Physicians (from highly credible medical institutions) just said that herd immunity will potentially take effect as early as this April. If so, things will quickly open up, especially around summer, and people will reallocate their current card budget funds to vacations, concerts, bars, restaurants, experiences, etc.

Some people will exit the hobby as quickly as they entered it. Some will remain, but spend less money on cards. The current demand level for cards will decrease. Those that completely exit the hobby may want to sell. If so, this will also increase the supply. Reduced demand and increased available supply is great for us collectors (not investors). Plus, how many cards that were previously in dusty closets and attics were re-discovered during the pandemic and graded or brought to the market? Vintage supply, at least card’s to the market, will increase in the near future.

Sure my collection’s value will significantly decrease when this plays out, but I don’t care. All the gains were just paper ones anyway. I only sell or trade when I upgrade an existing card. I’m ready for prices to crater, so I can resume purchasing cards on my wishlist. I can afford the cards on my list, but not in the grades I want. I’m priced out of the grades. I’ve had to settle for lower grades, and refuse to do it anymore.

Those that are considering selling may want to make the move. Sell at today’s prices, and then rebuy the same cards (and a lot more, or in better grades) at tomorrow’s prices. No one can perfectly time the market. We potentially are at the peak and may begin descending the other side soon. Let’s hope for the sake of people’s well-being - physical, mental, financial, spiritual, etc.!


I agree on many aspects pointed out above, pretty much all except I don’t believe key vintage high end cards will not pull back that much Ext+-Nrmt Cobbb, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, Aaron, and Mays.

joshuanip 02-20-2021 10:54 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630 (Post 2071115)
I agree on many aspects pointed out about, pretty much all except I don’t believe key vintage high end cards will not pull back that much Ext+-Nrmt Cobbb, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, Aaron, and Mays.

I have two or three cards moving up like a Gamestop stock....unfortunately I'm a HODL, and I can care less (thank God).....


Before you sell your cards. Here is a 2020 article for perspective. He was right, those goudey Ruths shot right through those rising price points. You held this long, why sell now - you can’t time the markets but the momo definitely goes longer than we expect... dang too bad I only have one goudey Ruth below.

https://prewarcards.com/2020/03/07/b...ut-of-control/

Republicaninmass 02-20-2021 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshuanip (Post 2071134)
I have two or three cards moving up like a Gamestop stock....unfortunately I'm a HODL, and I can care less (thank God).....


At some point, mine will be SODL!

Tyruscobb 02-20-2021 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630 (Post 2071115)
I agree on many aspects pointed out about, pretty much all except I don’t believe key vintage high end cards will not pull back that much Ext+-Nrmt Cobbb, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, Aaron, and Mays.

The rising tide raises all boats just like the descending one lowers all boats. I agree that top grade, blue-chip cards will withstand dropping prices better than others, but even they won’t defy supply/demand economic principles.

Even low-grade cards are getting ridiculous. A ‘53 Topps Mantle 1 for $3k? WoW.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1953-Topps-...QAAOSwi09gEKcH

ajjohnsonsoxfan 02-20-2021 02:55 PM

Joshua that Ruth is mouth watering. That's a keeper for life

cardsagain74 02-20-2021 03:00 PM

These points of view never cease to amaze me:

- "I don't care if the value of my assets drop"

- "The gains are only on paper"

Something's liquid worth is what matters, regardless of whether or not it's "on paper". It doesn't matter what you paid (except for tax purposes).

And as far as hoping that your cards will lose a lot of their value.....I get if someone wants to focus on just collecting, but there's so much more to a market collapsing other than "being able to buy more of what you want".

Dealers' livelihoods are harmed. People will have less of an estate to leave to their heirs. Or some may hope to liquidate some of their collection to make their retirement better.

There's a lot more to it than flippers losing their ass and exiting the market

Tyruscobb 02-20-2021 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsagain74 (Post 2071247)
These points of view never cease to amaze me:

- "I don't care if the value of my assets drop"

- "The gains are only on paper"

Something's liquid worth is what matters, regardless of whether or not it's "on paper". It doesn't matter what you paid (except for tax purposes).

And as far as hoping that your cards will lose a lot of their value.....I get if someone wants to focus on just collecting, but there's so much more to a market collapsing other than "being able to buy more of what you want".

Dealers' livelihoods are harmed. People will have less of an estate to leave to their heirs. Or some may hope to liquidate some of their collection to make their retirement better.

There's a lot more to it than flippers losing their ass and exiting the market

My views are just that - mine. I’m a baseball card collector; not a flipper, speculator, or investor. I intend to die with every card that I purchase and couldn’t care less if they all went to $0.00. I would still enjoy owning them and looking at them.

I do not view them as asserts. I only purchase cards with money I am willing to part ways with and never recover. If others do not do the same that is their business and problem.

As far as a collapse, all I want is for prices to return to pre-COVID, normal levels. I guess you’ve never shorted a stock? If you have, you do realize you are rooting for the stock to crater, which affects other people’s life’s and potentially everything you mentioned, right?

Exhibitman 02-20-2021 04:08 PM

If the idea of a pullback from the current sales prices is disconcerting then the answer is simple: sell it all. Take the profit and ride out the next downturn.

cardsagain74 02-20-2021 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb (Post 2071259)
My views are just that - mine. I’m a baseball card collector; not a flipper, speculator, or investor. I intend to die with every card that I purchase and couldn’t care less if they all went to $0.00. I would still enjoy owning them and looking at them.

I do not view them as asserts. I only purchase cards with money I am willing to part ways with and never recover. If others do not do the same that is their business and problem.

As far as a collapse, all I want is for prices to return to pre-COVID, normal levels. I guess you’ve never shorted a stock? If you have, you do realize you are rooting for the stock to crater, which affects other people’s life’s and potentially everything you mentioned, right?

I know they're your views. If you choose not to place monetary value on your possessions that have it, that's totally up to you. Saying that it amazes me is not telling others what to do.

And yes, I would be aware of that if I shorted a stock. Have never had to consider that dilemma, because it's never been a part of my trading.

joshuanip 02-20-2021 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ajjohnsonsoxfan (Post 2071241)
Joshua that Ruth is mouth watering. That's a keeper for life

Thanks. Probably will be a keeper for life. Do you still have that 4 goudey Ruth mini set? That was a nice quality set of all 4 goudey Ruth’s!

And I remember that crackerjack box as well. That was a treat to hold in person! Thx.

Republicaninmass 02-21-2021 05:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsagain74 (Post 2071292)
I know they're your views. If you choose not to place monetary value on your possessions that have it, that's totally up to you. Saying that it amazes me is not telling others what to do.

And yes, I would be aware of that if I shorted a stock. Have never had to consider that dilemma, because it's never been a part of my trading.

Some guys bet "dont pass" at the craps table. Sure they're hated by the whole table, but the strategy is there for a reason. Looking toward the future, I'd have to say it would be a little depressing to me if cards went to 0, like a stock going to 0. Sure it's fun to say you owned it, and cards you can look at, but that money has been lost, for good. I cant imagine people's families would think "because it made you happy" it was ok to waste money on yourself, while taking time away from them, and it does sorting, looking, buying , regardless of how much wealth one may have.


For some people selling now would enable them to pay off their house, buy a house, diversify into other long term investments. I just cant see a place where it is hold forever, albeit the inevitable will happen along the way. My only question if I sold everything would be "what's next".

In short, I'd love to add a 52 mantle, but wont feel bad about not having one, more so at these prices. If there is some crash, I may revisit, but to me the price not justifiable. No FOMO here!

Rich Klein 02-21-2021 07:12 AM

Not just BB Cards that people are afraid are in a bubble.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s?srnd=premium

Oscar_Stanage 02-21-2021 07:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich Klein (Post 2071513)
Not just BB Cards that people are afraid are in a bubble.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s?srnd=premium

the jump in interest rates spooked parts of the market last week and is on top of the list of risks for any investor. There is no doubt that if stocks rollover, the card market will do the same, and in a more violent fashion.

that said, as long as the Fed is determined to pin rates at zero, it just makes sense to be invested in stocks and other risky assets like coins, cards, etc.

the jump in rates at this point is more due to inflation fear than actual inflation.. i think at the point we see stronger evidence of the latter, that will be the true catalyst.

Fballguy 02-21-2021 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toledo_mudhen (Post 2059944)

LOL..."A fool and his money..."

Johnny630 02-21-2021 10:37 AM

It’s a Shit or Get off the Pot Moment. Keep and Be Happy, Sell and Be Happy, just remember if in a year or two you try to get what stuff your stuff is selling for right now don’t cry if you can’t, and if you do sell now and it goes up way more in two years don’t cry either, that’s all.

dio 02-21-2021 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630 (Post 2071594)
It’s a Shit or Get off the Pot Moment. Keep and Be Happy, Sell and Be Happy, just remember if in a year or two you try to get what stuff your stuff is selling for right now don’t cry if you can’t, and if you do sell now and it goes up way more in two years don’t cry either, that’s all.


Yup. I can afford it to go down 40% and my collection still up 2 times what I paid for. I'm happy wht goes up and won't feel a thing if it drops a lot. And I pretty much only collect vintage . I can hold another 10-15 years and I'm sure the value will retain more than what I paid .

jboosted92 02-21-2021 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Directly (Post 2060296)
A trend to watch for the next generations maybe the Pokémon Phenomena. The young and older collectors and traders alike are going crazy over these cards. Brand new Charizard chase cards are selling for hundreds of dollars plus. (Charizard doesn't have a bad year or ACL's) Many of these folks are now buying new retail sports card boxes to flip or use to trade for Pokémon cards, boxes, and visa versa, thus fueling the prices for both. Point being this is bringing many Pokémon collectors into the sports cards market! ( For years to come this will help support sport card prices across the board?)

i literally went blind reading this paragraph

jayshum 02-21-2021 12:39 PM

Prices may still be going up, but this seems a little overly optimistic:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1911-T3-2-T...0AAOSwVrtgMqOL

Touch'EmAll 02-21-2021 12:57 PM

Got a chuckle over the "shit or get off the pot moment".

Just crazy the current market. Am struggling with sell/don't sell now myself. Prices seem too good to be true, but then I don't really need the money now, will hold little longer until springtime.

Ususally the market heats up in April/May - spring, baseball starting, NBA close to playoffs. Probably hold, see what spring REA auction has and then results. Could be a good gauge of scarce vintage prices.

Noticed a 1949 Bowman Paige PSA 8 listed on ebay, asking $75.k, oh my. PWCC recently sold on a bit off center for $25.k Don't laugh, this could be well over $50.k in a year if market doesn't collapse.

joshuanip 02-21-2021 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy (Post 2071529)
the jump in interest rates spooked parts of the market last week and is on top of the list of risks for any investor. There is no doubt that if stocks rollover, the card market will do the same, and in a more violent fashion.

that said, as long as the Fed is determined to pin rates at zero, it just makes sense to be invested in stocks and other risky assets like coins, cards, etc.

the jump in rates at this point is more due to inflation fear than actual inflation.. i think at the point we see stronger evidence of the latter, that will be the true catalyst.

Stock market is taking a rest from a remarkable run since elections (which feels like a correction in a one way bull market). Since elections, its been the reflation trade - rising commodity/energy prices, higher inflation expectations, and indigestion in the long end of the yield curve. All based on extreme fiscal stimulus, continued accommodative monetary conditions, commodity infrastructure underinvestment, supply chain disruption (ie semi chips), and pentup demand from reopening. You factor in 5% gdp expectations this year and above normal next, people are expecting increased velocity of $, pushing inflation higher.

I believe we will see transitory inflation for reasons above. But we are nowhere close to full employment, and the uneven distribution of wealth from asset reflation is an unbalanced economy that will not allow a level of sustained inflation over the short/intermediate term that would force the fed to change course over the next 3 years. And sure we are finally seeing a rise in real yield (nominal less inflation), but for perspective we rose from negative real yields to zero, a step away from Japanification, but not an endorsement of a secular rise in real yields. Bottom line asset/commodity prices are rising, wages are not, squeezing the have nots and keeping the system accommodative.

Bringing it back to cards, the last couple of cycles since the 90’s card bubble have shown real yields, demand for liquidity and employment are arguably equally (if not more) strong coefficients to vintage card prices than the stock market’s wealth effect and speculation factor.

Cards are a non-income producing, store-of-wealth asset. In that sense, moderate inflation is positive and real rates are negative to card prices. And while real yields have increased from negative rates, it’s still zero... while inflation expectations are rising dramatically (the fed is welcoming this as they want to run hot over their 2% target). This is supportive for cards.

Demand for liquidity is another factor on supply. Cards are a a source of liquidity and as the demand for liquidity increase so do the available cards in the market. Right now, the Fed electronically flooded the system with liquidity and the excess liquidity spilled over into the card market. The Fed has telegraphed accommodative conditions to 2024 (and the other central banks are in concert with that timeline - a race to zero in their respective fiat currencies), and probably yield curve control thereafter (because of our unbalanced risks). So I expect general liquidity to continue to be extraordinary (as we follow the longer term paths of Weimar/Argentina, where debt can be only repaid thru reflation, or dimished purchasing power of the currency used to pay back the debt). To put into perspective, we tried to unwind the fed’s balance sheet in 2013, but had to do a course correct as the market threw a tantrum, and again in 2018. The fed’s balance sheet in 2013, 2018, and today was 3 Trillion, 4T and 7.4T, respectively. Add the trillion dollar annual deficit the treasury will run - putting us deeper in the hole and making it more impossible for us to get out conventionally.

Employment is a distorted signal right now. In the past, it was (and will again be) a factor for liquidity demand, impacting the amount of card supply. But in our situation, we have a moratorium to pay rent and student loans, receive expanded unemployment and stimulus checks, and business loan forgiveness. There is suppressed demand for liquidity in a time where the system is flooded for liquidity. At the more intermediate term, our employment rate has improved, but we still have tons of slack from an elevated rate and lower labor force participation. We have a long way to go to bring us back to full employment, so the fed will continue to be accommodative, and possibly resort to yield curve control (which suppresses the real yields not inflation), once the stimulus sugar highs wear off. This is also supporting card prices.

But will a market correction have a significant adverse affect on vintage card prices? The market has experienced significant market multiple expansion since 2018 - all the way to 2000 dot com bubble levels. We can be in a flat and skinny scenario, where the stock market stalls as the earnings grow into its valuation, but the conditions for card prices (and assets) remain supportive as we continue to transfer private debt into public debt, run hot on inflation with suppressed real yields.

I’m not saying we will not correct in a stock market correction. There is too much speculation right now in this card market not not have “beta” with the equity markets. But the extent of the impact is more micro within the card market (ie prewar will have less beta than modern due to the difference in magnitude of their price increases and the marketplace players are simply different - modern is more “hot” money). I do believe certain prewar card prices have transitioned into new levels for the reasons above, which will prove to be more stable than we would expect if we have a small correction in the market. That said I’m taking this extraordinary demand and liquidity to reposition my collection even more so to key players that would retain liquidity and value over the longer term. By the end of this, I’ll probably just end up owning nothing but Cobbs and Ruths.

-biased viewpoints from a HODL(er)

Oscar_Stanage 02-21-2021 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshuanip (Post 2071690)
I believe we will see transitory inflation for reasons above. But we are nowhere close to full employment, and the uneven distribution of wealth from asset reflation is an unbalanced economy that will not allow a level of sustained inflation over the short/intermediate term that would force the fed to change course over the next 3 years.

-biased viewpoints from a HODL(er)

my core view agrees with you- which is why I said the rate move is only in anticipation of inflation. I don't think we get it in any significance. I am an MMTer. And also a HODLer. but that said, most of the market believes that deficits cause inflation so rates can continue up faster, and stocks might sell-off sharply because of it.

ullmandds 02-21-2021 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshuanip (Post 2071690)
Stock market is taking a rest from a remarkable run since elections (which feels like a correction in a one way bull market). Since elections, its been the reflation trade - rising commodity/energy prices, higher inflation expectations, and indigestion in the long end of the yield curve. All based on extreme fiscal stimulus, continued accommodative monetary conditions, commodity infrastructure underinvestment, supply chain disruption (ie semi chips), and pentup demand from reopening. You factor in 5% gdp expectations this year and above normal next, people are expecting increased velocity of $, pushing inflation higher.

I believe we will see transitory inflation for reasons above. But we are nowhere close to full employment, and the uneven distribution of wealth from asset reflation is an unbalanced economy that will not allow a level of sustained inflation over the short/intermediate term that would force the fed to change course over the next 3 years. And sure we are finally seeing a rise in real yield (nominal less inflation), but for perspective we rose from negative real yields to zero, a step away from Japanification, but not an endorsement of a secular rise in real yields. Bottom line asset/commodity prices are rising, wages are not, squeezing the have nots and keeping the system accommodative.

Bringing it back cards, from the last couple of cycles since the 90’s card bubble, real yields, demand for liquidity and employment are arguably equally (if not more) strong coefficients to vintage card prices than from the stock market’s wealth effect and speculation factoring.

Cards is a non-income producing, store-of-wealth asset. In that sense, moderate inflation is positive and real rates are negative to card prices. And while real yields have increased from negative rates, it’s still zero... while inflation expectations are rising dramatically (the fed is welcoming this as they want to run hot over their 2% target). This is supportive for cards.

Demand for liquidity is another factor on supply. Cards are used as a source of funds and as the demand for funds increase so does supply of cards. Right now, the Fed electronically flooded the system with liquidity and the excess liquidity spilled over into the card market. Fed has telegraphed accommodative conditions to 2024 (and the other central banks are in concert with that timeline - a race to zero in their respective fiat currencies), and probably yield curve control thereafter (because of our unbalanced risks). So I expect general liquidity to continue to be extraordinary (as we follow the longer term paths of Weimar/Argentina, where debt can be only repaid thru reflation, or dimished purchasing power of the currency used to pay back the debt). To put into perspective, we tried to unwind the fed’s balance sheet in 2013, had to do a course correct as the market threw a tantrum, and again in 2018. The fed’s balance sheet in 2013, 2018, and now was 3 Trillion, 4T and 7.4T, respectively. Add the trillion dollar annual deficit the treasury will run - putting us deeper in the hole and making it more impossible for us to get out conventionally.

Employment is a distorted signal right now. In the past, it is a factor for liquidity demand and cards a source of liquidity. But in our situation, we have a moratorium to pay rent or student loans, receive expanded unemployment and stimulus checks, and loan forgiveness. There is suppressed demand for liquidity in a time where the system is flooded for liquidity. More intermediate term, our employment rate has improved, but we still have tons of slack from an elevated rate and lower labor force participation. We have a long way to go to bring us back to full employment, so the fed will continue to be accommodative, and possibly resort to yield curve control (which suppresses the real yields not inflation), once the stimulus sugar highs wear off. This is also supporting card prices.

But will a market correction have a significant adverse affect on vintage card prices? The market has experienced significant market multiple expansion since 2018 - all the way to 2000 dot com bubble levels. We can be in a flat and skinny scenario, where the stock market stalls as the earnings grow into its valuation, but the conditions for card prices (and assets) remain supportive as we continue to transfer private debt into public debt, run hot on inflation with suppressed real yields.

I’m not saying we will not correct in a stock market correction. There is too much speculation right now fed from this environment that will get sapped. But that’s more micro to to have different impacts within the card market (ie prewar versus modern). I do believe certain prewar card prices have transitioned into new levels for the reasons above, which will prove to be more stable than we would expect if we have a small correction in the market. That said I’m taking this extraordinary demand and liquidity to reposition my collection even more so to key players that would retain liquidity and value over the longer term. By the end of this, I’ll probably just end up owning nothing but Cobbs and Ruths.

-biased viewpoints from a HODL(er)

nice summary...and yes...cobbs and ruths are the path i've chosen!!!

Frank A 02-21-2021 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jboosted92 (Post 2071619)
i literally went blind reading this paragraph

lmfao

Johnny630 02-21-2021 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshuanip (Post 2071690)
Stock market is taking a rest from a remarkable run since elections (which feels like a correction in a one way bull market). Since elections, its been the reflation trade - rising commodity/energy prices, higher inflation expectations, and indigestion in the long end of the yield curve. All based on extreme fiscal stimulus, continued accommodative monetary conditions, commodity infrastructure underinvestment, supply chain disruption (ie semi chips), and pentup demand from reopening. You factor in 5% gdp expectations this year and above normal next, people are expecting increased velocity of $, pushing inflation higher.

I believe we will see transitory inflation for reasons above. But we are nowhere close to full employment, and the uneven distribution of wealth from asset reflation is an unbalanced economy that will not allow a level of sustained inflation over the short/intermediate term that would force the fed to change course over the next 3 years. And sure we are finally seeing a rise in real yield (nominal less inflation), but for perspective we rose from negative real yields to zero, a step away from Japanification, but not an endorsement of a secular rise in real yields. Bottom line asset/commodity prices are rising, wages are not, squeezing the have nots and keeping the system accommodative.

Bringing it back cards, from the last couple of cycles since the 90’s card bubble, real yields, demand for liquidity and employment are arguably equally (if not more) strong coefficients to vintage card prices than from the stock market’s wealth effect and speculation factoring.

Cards is a non-income producing, store-of-wealth asset. In that sense, moderate inflation is positive and real rates are negative to card prices. And while real yields have increased from negative rates, it’s still zero... while inflation expectations are rising dramatically (the fed is welcoming this as they want to run hot over their 2% target). This is supportive for cards.

Demand for liquidity is another factor on supply. Cards are used as a source of funds and as the demand for funds increase so does supply of cards. Right now, the Fed electronically flooded the system with liquidity and the excess liquidity spilled over into the card market. Fed has telegraphed accommodative conditions to 2024 (and the other central banks are in concert with that timeline - a race to zero in their respective fiat currencies), and probably yield curve control thereafter (because of our unbalanced risks). So I expect general liquidity to continue to be extraordinary (as we follow the longer term paths of Weimar/Argentina, where debt can be only repaid thru reflation, or dimished purchasing power of the currency used to pay back the debt). To put into perspective, we tried to unwind the fed’s balance sheet in 2013, had to do a course correct as the market threw a tantrum, and again in 2018. The fed’s balance sheet in 2013, 2018, and now was 3 Trillion, 4T and 7.4T, respectively. Add the trillion dollar annual deficit the treasury will run - putting us deeper in the hole and making it more impossible for us to get out conventionally.

Employment is a distorted signal right now. In the past, it is a factor for liquidity demand and cards a source of liquidity. But in our situation, we have a moratorium to pay rent or student loans, receive expanded unemployment and stimulus checks, and loan forgiveness. There is suppressed demand for liquidity in a time where the system is flooded for liquidity. More intermediate term, our employment rate has improved, but we still have tons of slack from an elevated rate and lower labor force participation. We have a long way to go to bring us back to full employment, so the fed will continue to be accommodative, and possibly resort to yield curve control (which suppresses the real yields not inflation), once the stimulus sugar highs wear off. This is also supporting card prices.

But will a market correction have a significant adverse affect on vintage card prices? The market has experienced significant market multiple expansion since 2018 - all the way to 2000 dot com bubble levels. We can be in a flat and skinny scenario, where the stock market stalls as the earnings grow into its valuation, but the conditions for card prices (and assets) remain supportive as we continue to transfer private debt into public debt, run hot on inflation with suppressed real yields.

I’m not saying we will not correct in a stock market correction. There is too much speculation right now fed from this environment that will get sapped. But that’s more micro to to have different impacts within the card market (ie prewar versus modern). I do believe certain prewar card prices have transitioned into new levels for the reasons above, which will prove to be more stable than we would expect if we have a small correction in the market. That said I’m taking this extraordinary demand and liquidity to reposition my collection even more so to key players that would retain liquidity and value over the longer term. By the end of this, I’ll probably just end up owning nothing but Cobbs and Ruths.

-biased viewpoints from a HODL(er)

I loved reading this, sport on, I’m nowhere close to as intelligent or have near the eloquence in writing skills. I’m just a common blue collar guy who has been buying and holding only Cobb, Ruth, Mantle, Jackie, Mays, Clemente, and Aaron only for the past few years...this will not change.

dio 02-21-2021 06:04 PM

Btw what is HODL(er) stand for?
Thanks

Yoda 02-21-2021 06:07 PM

A short personal story about card price appreciation: I consigned to a well-known AH a PSA RC of Rickie Henderson for a recent auction. I was told it should fetch about $1,000, which what I sort of figured given recent sales of the card at the time. It sold for $1,100, and I was a happy boy.
Fast forward 3 months to the present and Rickie is all over Ebay at between $3,000 -3800. And we all know there are a bazillion Rickeys out there. Good Grief.
I have a couple in for grading at PSA which will probably make their way back to me when the Mars Rover completes its mission and Rickies are worth $25.

Aquarian Sports Cards 02-21-2021 06:26 PM

John, How do you think I felt selling a Jordan rookie in PSA 9 for a consignor for 16k and being happy with the sale...

...at the time.

Wanaselja 02-21-2021 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dio (Post 2071811)
Btw what is HODL(er) stand for?
Thanks

Hold.
It’s Reddit/Wall Street Bets lingo for holding onto an investment.

pokerplyr80 02-21-2021 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wanaselja (Post 2071856)
Hold.
It’s Reddit/Wall Street Bets lingo for holding onto an investment.

It's from crypto, not wsb. Well that's where it originated any way.

pokerplyr80 02-21-2021 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards (Post 2071825)
John, How do you think I felt selling a Jordan rookie in PSA 9 for a consignor for 16k and being happy with the sale...

...at the time.

You should feel fine if it went for that it was worth at the time. Obviously we'd all take any card back that was sold more than a month or so ago at today's prices. But I certainly wouldn't blame the AH that sold it just because the market changed.

Aquarian Sports Cards 02-21-2021 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80 (Post 2071868)
You should feel fine if it went for that it was worth at the time. Obviously we'd all take any card back that was sold more than a month or so ago at today's prices. But I certainly wouldn't blame the AH that sold it just because the market changed.

I appreciate that and of course rationally I know that, but still when people rely on you to maximize their return it's hard not to second guess yourself.

Oscar_Stanage 02-21-2021 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dio (Post 2071811)
Btw what is HODL(er) stand for?
Thanks

Hold On For Dear Life.

its crypto lingo

dio 02-21-2021 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80 (Post 2071865)
It's from crypto, not wsb. Well that's where it originated any way.

Ahh.. thanks

Casey2296 02-21-2021 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards (Post 2071871)
I appreciate that and of course rationally I know that, but still when people rely on you to maximize their return it's hard not to second guess yourself.

Your job is to maximize a sellers return once they have decided to sell, nobody can expect you to predict the future.

cardsagain74 02-21-2021 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards (Post 2071871)
I appreciate that and of course rationally I know that, but still when people rely on you to maximize their return it's hard not to second guess yourself.

Yep but (and I know you know this) your part in "maximizing their return" doesn't spill over into helping them time the market.

Your conscience about it speaks very highly of your character though

Yoda 02-21-2021 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards (Post 2071825)
John, How do you think I felt selling a Jordan rookie in PSA 9 for a consignor for 16k and being happy with the sale...

...at the time.

Scott, I feel slightly nauseous considering what it would go for today. A '33 Goudey Ruth #53 on REA PSA 5 with the auction now in extending bidding was $55K last time I checked. That must be a record for the grade.

pokerplyr80 02-21-2021 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yoda (Post 2071898)
Scott, I feel slightly nauseous considering what it would go for today. A '33 Goudey Ruth #53 on REA PSA 5 with the auction now in extending bidding was $55K last time I checked. That must be a record for the grade.

If you're talking about the SGC 5 ending tonight it's at 90k right now.

rjackson44 02-22-2021 08:08 AM

I sold two lebron chrome 2003 rookies psa 10 66 k for both ,,a 24 year old kid bought them ,,i guess the market stinks ,,,

Seven 02-22-2021 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjackson44 (Post 2071988)
I sold two lebron chrome 2003 rookies psa 10 66 k for both ,,a 24 year old kid bought them ,,i guess the market stinks ,,,

the better question is where does a 24 year old get 66K from? He either works in Finance or his father must have deep pockets :D

dio 02-22-2021 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seven (Post 2072013)
the better question is where does a 24 year old get 66K from? He either works in Finance or his father must have deep pockets :D

maybe work in tech,
prime yrs for tech workers are fresh grad -30
by the time reaches 40s - once got laid off, pretty much done

those new to the industry get a lot of stock options, maybe they use the stocks to buy cards

ullmandds 02-22-2021 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dio (Post 2072027)
maybe work in tech,
prime yrs for tech workers are fresh grad -30
by the time reaches 40s - once got laid off, pretty much done

those new to the industry get a lot of stock options, maybe they use the stocks to buy cards

maybe thy mine bitcoin?

dio 02-22-2021 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ullmandds (Post 2072034)
maybe thy mine bitcoin?

That too

Exhibitman 02-22-2021 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshuanip (Post 2071690)
I’m taking this extraordinary demand and liquidity to reposition my collection even more so to key players that would retain liquidity and value over the longer term. By the end of this, I’ll probably just end up owning nothing but Cobbs and Ruths.

this is the only part I understood...and generally agree with. I am holding onto a list of players longer than that (and across eras and four sports) but not by much. The rest I am gradually selling or trading for the ones on the list.

Anyone notice the 1933G Ruths in the REA auction? That's some real money.

rjackson44 02-22-2021 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seven (Post 2072013)
the better question is where does a 24 year old get 66K from? He either works in Finance or his father must have deep pockets :D

These kids are flippers i never asked its none of my business,,they have more money then god ,,he deals in hight end stuff,,then again Greenwich ct is wealthy..

rjackson44 02-22-2021 11:09 AM

I sold
 
Three 1981 topps basketball sets $660 for all i reached out to buy them back $1200 firm its insane lol

jchcollins 02-22-2021 12:14 PM

A '54 Topps Jackie Robinson PSA 1 sold two weeks ago on eBay for $315. Huh?

Fuddjcal 02-22-2021 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jchcollins (Post 2072092)
A '54 Topps Jackie Robinson PSA 1 sold two weeks ago on eBay for $315. Huh?

that seems like a pretty decent price for a "slice" of history?
Did it double in about 3 months or so? I think the inventory is down on Jackie.

dealers typically buy the card and immediately relist it for double. Then sell it when and for what they can for a profit. That's been the business model it seems for years and the prices have just caught up.

Now, You have dealers buying cards like 52 Jackie for 13K and then relisting for 80K. Add "private bidders" to the shadiest Curt Shilling F in the world and this is what we get. It's a supply and demand issue I believe, though I've never been good at economics:) I'm enjoying the explosion and I'll enjoy the decline just as much. I always liked Jackie


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