Hi Larry,
Every so often Antiques Roadshow airs an episode taped 10-15 years ago, and after the expert estimates the value, they will show you what that same piece is worth today. Only rarely is something worth more, and the vast majority of the pieces will have lost 25-50% of their value. Also, any antique collector I have spoken with has the same pessimistic response: the market is dead. I'm sure you can always find someone who feels otherwise.

Ah, but there are so many of you pure collectors for the moment that it wouldn't be long before their prices started rising at a substantial rate again! Simply demand vs supply once more reaching their natural equilibrium again. Which is a good thing!

Best to all,

Larry

I tend to agree with Adam, and have been telling collectors since 1976 "when they ask" to "buy what they like" because the chances of making huge gains quickly is often slim to none. On the contrary, I have bought collections and items during a day at a show, and broke them up later in the day and sold them for a large profit. But every sports card dealer has such stories.

I find three types of collectors:

1 -- those that buy what they like or collect

2 -- those that are just investors, and

3 -- a combination of 1 and 2.

I buy for resale and can spot a true #1, #2, or #3 immediately. But I also think that there will always be opportunity to make a killing if you pick the right items.

Look at "Black Panther" which has made over $1 billion; did comic book collectors know that there early Black Panther comics would ever be worth big bucks?

Collectors kept them, and now investors are jumping in.

It can happen when you least expect it.

Look what Shaq and Jordan and Gretzky did for their respective sports card collectors.

My 2 cents: Collect what you like, and hope to make a profit someday, if that day ever comes.

Steve

Agree with Steve ,,

We've all got flip stories, Steve. Many of us have also won a round or two of PSA lotto (I just took a risk on a raw card that came back an 8 and parlayed $90 plus a grade fee into $750, if the card was to go for sale, which it isn't). I even pulled a pricey insert card out of a pack once (1997 Topps, pulled the Jeter signed insert; still one of my favorite cards).

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...size/Jeter.jpg

My point isn't so much that money isn't/shouldn't be a concern as it is that the obsession over what card collecting will be like in 10-20-30 years from now based on financial concerns is just a bit silly in the context of a pasttime. Unless you (the hypothetical "you", not you specifically) are making a living on this, the idea of this should be a diversion from work and money and other real world concerns, as Burdick says in the intro to the ACC. If you're going to replicate the financial stress of retirement planning, get out of cards, put the money that 'has to' work for you in equities, and go to a stock chatroom instead of here.

+1.

Separate that money. I'm a pretty avid golfer, but I don't buy a new driver or wedge every year. I'd rather buy cards. However I have buddies that spend money on new clubs of some sort every year. That is where they choose to spend their extra cash. Their retirement money is not tied up in clubs, and I'm sure they don't sit around hoping the M1 driver they bought a few years ago is worth more today than it was. It doesn't even enter into the discussion.

I bought cards before the big money got in. I'll buy cards after the "crash" that so many folks believe will come. The fact that my hobby has increased in value is simply a pleasant byproduct, but not something I depend on or worry about.

+1. Even if you're a "collestor" (Steve's #3), your retirement money should be primarily in other areas where it can work for you. If your collection turns out to appreciate in value, great; if not, you'll have your other avenues going for you.

Best to all,

Larry

I have found a balanced approach is best for me, as others have alluded to also.

.

I am most definately a #3 on steve’s list above. I love cards, and have been collecting on and off my whole life, but my collecting now is much more focused on long term appreciation, as I view cards as an alternative investment. Again, I believe the upside is long term and I expect to keep most of the cards I acquire for 10+ years, and with a little luck, I will sell when I want to (not because I have to). I also focus primarily on the blue-chip - Cobb, Wagner, Jackson, Ruth, rare back t206 and t206 HOFers, etc. I have seen great cards of great players (Clemente, mantle, Rose, Aaron), retain their value and go up a lot over the past 30+ years, and I believe (strongly) that will continue - although I am banking this time around on the 50 year older versions of the aforementioned list.

Bingo - balanced approach, aka diversification. They belong as a part of my overall portfolio. To me, YES, cards are investment. Trust me, if I thought cards will decrease in value, I would stop. Kind of a trick though - which cards are good cards for investment? My guess, like so many here are vintage higher end upper tier HOFers.

Adam- great, rookie-era Jeter sig.

I agree with those who advise against buying cards for their investment value.
I believe that the past performance of cards is no indication of their future performance. The fact that '52 Mantles have gone through the roof over the last 20 years is no indication that they will continue to increase in value, or even maintain their value, over the next 20 years in my opinion.

The best of the best is the safest bet in my opinion. Art, Porsches, coins, etc. the high end has always been the safest and has highest return for decades. Now with said in cards I'm talking low- low pops. A Hank Aaron 10 will always have enough buyers with crazy money who want it. An Aaron 8 on the other hand will fluctuate with the economy /market.

Like it or not, believe it or not, take it with a grain of salt. Forbes published article this February about how quality vintage cards have outperformed the S&P 500 during both the last 5 years and the last 10 years. That PWCC dude, Brent, has come up with an "index" with pretty darn solid evidence of conclusion. Thing is, remember, these are waterfront cards, not all the rest. They did not analyze cards such as T206 Lajoie, Exhibit Hornsby, Goudey Carl Hubbell, or Johnny Bench type cards which can typically be a large part of our own actual collections. And this is during one of the largest upticks in stock market history. Hmm.

I want the list of the best 500 cards

Mike: that's why I love the card--great design and a rookie-era still decent looking signature. So many players end up stylizing their signatures to the point where they look like hieroglyphics instead of autographs.

I saw that Forbes story. Not surprising since equities shat the bed in 2008 and spent most of the last decade making up lost ground.

The stock market collapse was at its worst rock bottom in early 2009. 3 years later, by early 2012 the DOW had recovered to it pre-collapse days. We have had 6 years of solid uptick since.

Good for the stock market.

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...nza%20clap.gif

Nice one. And having outperformed stocks, lets get a rousing Standing O for baseball cards !

Here's the article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidse.../#7422c61064b1

What he fails to add is the reinvesting of dividends. Most everyone reinvests dividends, and if you add them in, like you should, the return is 142% on the Jan 2008 to Feb 2018.

And what are the 500 cards? And the grades of each card?

I think he's being very selective to get his numbers to push his point.

Additionally, you can invest $1 in the S&P. I'm sure whatever the top 500 cards are, you aren't getting one of them for $1. :)