I believe
 

HE deserves to be mentioned in a display or film, maybe have one of his bats in an exhibit, but he does not deserve induction. I would feel this way even if he reaches 600 HR's.

I compare Nolan Ryan with Clint Eastwood. Nolan Ryan doesn't have all the awards because he spent the first part of his career entertaining us by throwing hard and raking up strike-outs, but he eventually became a better pitcher, showing more finesse, and I think that made up for the earlier years that were dominated by his strikeout stats....and he created his own award: the "7 no-hitters" award. Not sure Ryan would have made the HOF if he had sputtered out at the same time Carlton did.

Eastwood spent the early part of his career making spaghetti westerns and Dirty Harry movies - very entertaining and making a name for himself (like Ryan's strikeout years with the Angels), but not Oscar-worthy stuff. Like Ryan, he aged well and grew in the latter part of his career, taking some roles that showed that he had some acting skills, and becoming a good enough director. Now he's definitely movie-HOF worthy, but he's no Marlon Brando, just as Ryan is no Mathewson.

The only help Dunn was to his team was hitting home runs, 28.50% of his hits were home runs.

Comparison to the top 10 home run hitters:

Bonds: 25.96%
Aaron: 20.02%
Ruth: 24.85%
Mays: 20.10%
A.Rodriguez: 22.25%
Griffey: 22.65%
Thome: 26.29%
Sosa: 25.29%
F.Robinson: 19.91%
McGwire: 35.85%

McGwire is the only player with a higher percentage of HR/Hit than Dunn on that list. Yet McGwire was able to do it while having a BA of .263 compared to Dunn's BA of .238 (this includes a horrible .159 in 2011).

Dunn did nothing to help in the field, Rpos -109 and his Batting just wasn't enough (Rbat= 218 [with a -27 in 2011, and only 10 seasons with 10 or more runs above average from batting). His horrible fielding combined with his mediocre batting put him -80 RAA, that is runs below the average player in his career. He also has a negative WAA replacement number at -9.2. There were 9 seasons were he was in the negative for RAA, and only one full season where he was above 10 (2004 with 27).

If a player is providing less runs for his team for most of his career rather than adding them he really shouldn't be in the HOF. He just happened to hit the ball a long distance when he happened to make contact, but he rarely made contact.

He walked 4.7 batters per nine innings. With better control, we would be comparing him to Mathewson.

An interesting thing about Ryan is that it wasn't just about control. A lot of it was his mentality. As Bill James has commented, Ryan's mentality was that no matter what the count, he refused to give hitters anything decent to hit. He would rather walk someone than give in and lay one over the plate. The result is pretty much what you'd expect for someone with great stuff and that mentality - lots of Ks, lots of BBs, and lots of no hitters. And lots of wins and lots of losses.

I figured Ryan's mentality would have been: "you can't hit my stuff, I'm just going to blow a heater past you."

Not sure where you deduced anything other than "lots of BBs", unless it was from reading the stats in MLB Ref.

The Adam Dunn-Nolan Ryan comparison just seems ridiculious, IMO. Even if Ryan's win total is completely discounted, he far and away struck out more batters than any man in the history of the game and threw three more no hitters than anyone else in the history.

On the four "Hall of Fame Statistics" metrics on baseball-reference.com, Ryan easily qualifies in all four metrics on what is a Hall of Famer. Adam Dunn does not make the threshold for what constitutes a Hall of Famers in any of the four metrics. Even more damning, the best Dunn ranks on any of the four metrics is 257th all-time. That is a Hall of Famer? :rolleyes:

Let me say it one more time for those that have a problem understanding my point. It was not a Dunn-Ryan comparison. It was meant to show that one doesn't have to win certain awards to be inducted into the HOF. Earlier in the thread, several people mentioned that Dunn never won a MVP, etc., and therefore that was one of the reasons that he wouldn't be considered for the HOF. Ryan was mentioned (I could have used several other players to make my point, he just came to mind first) because he too never won an individual award (e.g. Cy Young), but it didn't keep him from the HOF.

My whole point is that one doesn't have to win a GG, SS, MVP, Cy Young, ROY, etc, to make the HOF. I simply made my point with Ryan, again it could have been one of many other players instead. If you still don't get my point, then maybe it's my fault. Maybe I'm not explaining it well.

Close in awards also matters. Ryan was top ten in Cy Young voting 8 times, top 20 in MVP voting 3 times. Dunn's best is a #21 finish in the MVP vote. IT is a terrible comparison. Ryan is a true all-time great, even among the HOF guys he is way up there. Dunn is just a guy - a good player, earning a good living playing baseball, soon to be forgotten.

It isn't about not winning an MVP. It's about not ever even being close to being an MVP. How can you claim to be a prominent player in your league if you never lead that league in any meaningful stat and you are not deemed to even make the top 20 in MVP?

Ryan finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting 6 times, and twice more in the top 10. He led the league in strikeouts --the meaningful kind where you throw the ball and not swing and miss-- 11 times and in ERA twice. Dunn?

Edited to add: I'm slow on the switch, that'll teach me to answer the phone!

David - you have brought up two HOF'ers (Ryan and Ozzie) during a discussion of whether or not Dunn is worthy. If you aren't comparing him to either of these guys, then please find a current HOF'er to actually compare him to. The Adam Dunn total package is lacking. The Nolan Ryan total package is better.

Jeez, if a guy like Jeff Bagwell can't get much more then 50% of the vote, I really can't see Dunn getting the benefit of the doubt, even if he all of a sudden has a historical resurgence and ends up with 700 HR's.

If players like Dick Allen, Albert Belle, Frank Howard, Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, Dale Murphy can't even come close to sniffing the Hall, then Dunn won't get out of the first year of eligibility.

I remember guys belly-aching on here when Jim Rice got in, and he was the premier power hitter in the AL for nearly a decade.

Well said Dave....

I think the reason that Dunn is being argued is that if he continues his career, he may pass the 500 HR plateau. Previously, 500 HR's was a lock for the HOF, similar to 300 wins or 3000 hits. However, b/c of Dunn's historically low batting average and lack of MVP vote credentials, he would be one of the hitters that really would be stretching this milestone number. For the other hitters that were mentioned, either they have had some suspicion of PED use or they never hit the 500 HR number. I'm pretty sure most people believe that Dunn is clean especially b/c of his batting average number. He's like a Dave Kingman as others have mentioned.

Gary, I've said it before but I think you missed it: the statement that 500 HR's is a lock for the HOF is FAILED LOGIC. '500 HRs' is not why these guys got into the HOF - it is only part of it. The guys with 500 HR's did a lot more than just hit 500 HR's. Adam Dunn has done a lot less.

FWIW, I used Dunn in a video game and he had TREMENDOUS power that stood out from even established home run hitters. LOL, this thread has been done to death.

[QUOTE=vintagetoppsguy;1318369}
I realize we're only 3 games into the month, but isn't 4 for 8 with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs is a pretty good start to September, or am I missing something?[/QUOTE]

How's Adam doing, we haven't heard from you?

To me, a "clean" 600 HRs is the new lock for Hall induction.

Just for fun, mlb.com does a quick glance at every player's last 10 games. in his last 10 games, Adam Dunn is batting .200 with 0 home runs and 8 strikeouts. He has however, scored 1 run.

Greg

Since joining the A's, he's batting .278 (better than his career average) with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs. Adam will be gald you asked about him :D

I still believe that 500 homers is the magic number and should be a lock. The only players to eclipse that mark and not be voted in are suspected or admitted cheaters. If you have to cheat to accomplish a feat like 500 homers, then that must mean there is some significance to the accomplishment.

Craig Biggio reached 3,000 hits without ever being a great player. No MVP awards, though he did receive votes. Since he didn't make it, is the new number 3,500 hits? 3,250?

Don't sell that pile of Dunn rookies just yet!! :D

That's my retirement fund. Who needs a 401k? :D

Biggio will eventually make it. He only missed by two votes, and no player has debuted on the ballot with more votes and been shut out in the end. And besides Gil Hodges and Jack Morris, every player who has ever received at least 50 percent of the vote has ultimately landed in Cooperstown — either by election or via the veterans committee.

I agree that 500 is not a lock. Adam Dunn is a liability to a team and should hold the record for the worst season in 2011 (but the manager played the stats game and kept him out of 6 extra at bats to make sure it didn't go down as a full season).

Craig Biggio contributed a lot more to his team than Dunn did. Biggio's RAA (runs above average) is 306, with 257 coming from batting. Dunn's RAA is -82, he even has a worse number with batting than Biggio at 217.

The HOF should be smarter than looking at one stat, and they have been. No one has gotten in as a player with a negative RAA that I have seen (I could have missed someone EDIT - I looked through every HOF and there is one with a negative RAA: Lloyd Waner had a -4).

Here is a list of everyone with more career home runs than Dunn and their RAA. The lowest is 136 with Canseco. The lowest HOFer is 213 with Winfield.

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<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>RAA</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th># HR</th></tr>
<tr><td>1243</td><td>Barry*Bonds*(22)</td><td>762</td></tr>
<tr><td>862</td><td>Hank*Aaron+*(23)</td><td>755</td></tr>
<tr><td>1327</td><td>Babe*Ruth+*(22)</td><td>714</td></tr>
<tr><td>1041</td><td>Willie*Mays+*(22)</td><td>660</td></tr>
<tr><td>796</td><td>Alex*Rodriguez*(20, 38)</td><td>654</td></tr>
<tr><td>482</td><td>Ken*Griffey*(22)</td><td>630</td></tr>
<tr><td>383</td><td>Jim*Thome*(22)</td><td>612</td></tr>
<tr><td>301</td><td>Sammy*Sosa*(18)</td><td>609</td></tr>
<tr><td>613</td><td>Frank*Robinson+*(21)</td><td>586</td></tr>
<tr><td>379</td><td>Mark*McGwire*(16)</td><td>583</td></tr>
<tr><td>280</td><td>Harmon*Killebrew+*(22)</td><td>573</td></tr>
<tr><td>291</td><td>Rafael*Palmeiro*(20)</td><td>569</td></tr>
<tr><td>313</td><td>Reggie*Jackson+*(21)</td><td>563</td></tr>
<tr><td>363</td><td>Manny*Ramirez*(19, 42)</td><td>555</td></tr>
<tr><td>681</td><td>Mike*Schmidt+*(18)</td><td>548</td></tr>
<tr><td>788</td><td>Mickey*Mantle+*(18)</td><td>536</td></tr>
<tr><td>695</td><td>Jimmie*Foxx+*(20)</td><td>534</td></tr>
<tr><td>274</td><td>Willie*McCovey+*(22)</td><td>521</td></tr>
<tr><td>393</td><td>Frank*Thomas+*(19)</td><td>521</td></tr>
<tr><td>949</td><td>Ted*Williams+*(19)</td><td>521</td></tr>
<tr><td>692</td><td>Albert*Pujols*(14, 34)</td><td>518</td></tr>
<tr><td>284</td><td>Ernie*Banks+*(19)</td><td>512</td></tr>
<tr><td>578</td><td>Eddie*Mathews+*(17)</td><td>512</td></tr>
<tr><td>719</td><td>Mel*Ott+*(22)</td><td>511</td></tr>
<tr><td>270</td><td>Gary*Sheffield*(22)</td><td>509</td></tr>
<tr><td>242</td><td>Eddie*Murray+*(21)</td><td>504</td></tr>
<tr><td>862</td><td>Lou*Gehrig+*(17)</td><td>493</td></tr>
<tr><td>188</td><td>Fred*McGriff*(19)</td><td>493</td></tr>
<tr><td>809</td><td>Stan*Musial+*(22)</td><td>475</td></tr>
<tr><td>239</td><td>Willie*Stargell+*(21)</td><td>475</td></tr>
<tr><td>157</td><td>Carlos*Delgado*(17)</td><td>473</td></tr>
<tr><td>562</td><td>Chipper*Jones*(19)</td><td>468</td></tr>
<tr><td>213</td><td>Dave*Winfield+*(22)</td><td>465</td></tr>
<tr><td>152</td><td>David*Ortiz*(18, 38)</td><td>463</td></tr>
<tr><td>136</td><td>Jose*Canseco*(17)</td><td>462</td></tr>
<tr><td>-82</td><td>Adam*Dunn*(14, 34)</td><td>462</td></tr>
</table>

Those numbers translate to 21 HR and 75 RBI over the course of a 150 game season -- those aren't the numbers you're looking for from a player whose only calling card for the Hall of Fame is his power.

Greg

"Adam Dunn is a liability to a team and should hold the record for the worst season in 2011 (but the manager played the stats game and kept him out of 6 extra at bats to make sure it didn't go down as a full season)."

I had forgotten just how awful he was in that 2011 season--his AL debut. He actually had more strikeouts than batting average points 177 to 159. .159? That's below the Mrs. Mendoza line.

EDITED to add: I see where he followed that up with another season of Ks>avg, when he whiffed 222 times and hit .204 in 2012.

There's no defending that season. But if you're going to knock him for it then Reggie should be in the conversation too:

1983: hit .194 with 140 K's in 397 AB's with a .290 OBP.

At this point Reggie had not yet hit 500 homers.

Conversation maybe, but Reggie still had 11 more hits than Dunn in 99 fewer at bats, and had more HR, RBI and 60 OPS points on Dunn. Oh, and he was 37 years old, not 31 like Dunn, who was coming over to own the AL once he got to put his glove away. Or not.

EDITED TO ADD: Dunn finished 6 plate appearances from qualifying for the batting title. Assuming he went 1-6, a slight increase in his average, he would have finished with the worst BA by a qualifying hitter in 100 years.

HAHA that is reaching. Reggie Jackson had already played 15 seasons after his rookie year debut. He was 37 years old.

Also Dunn has 3 worse season's than Jackson's second worst full (or aprox full, I dropped the requirement to more than 400PA, instead of the 502) in 1984.

Dunn's came 11 years after his rookie year debut and was 31. Also Jackson only got 458 PA due to injuries. Dunn only got 496 so that he wouldn't be considered the worst player in history. Again look at the overall RAA for the two players in their career, Jackson was at 313. He still attributed more than the average player did.

By 1984, Reggie had 13 All Star appearances, 7 top tens in the MVP voting, winning in 73. Plus some medium level of success in the post-season, if I understand it right.

I was just talking about all time worst seasons. Reggie's 1983 was pretty awful.

Do you think Reggie gets in first ballot if he retired after 1983?

Final stats if he did retire:

2,176 hits, 478 HR, 1435 RBI, 2106 SO's .268 ave


I have no opinion one way or the other. At least if he had retired in 1983 he would have avoided having more career strike outs than hits.

Keep in mind Reggie is a guy who got 93.62 % of votes in 1993. He received a higher percentage of votes than Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Joe DiMaggio and Roberto Clemente.

These arbitrary HOF "lock" numbers are no longer applicable.

PED's, Bud Selig, Coors Field, the 24 hour news cycle, Advanced metric stats, etc.., etc.....have seen to that.

It's a case by case basis from here on out.

Hell, we might even be entering a new dead ball era. 250 HR's, a .280BA, and a .350 OBP might eventually get you in, if you stay out of the tabloids, don't do drugs, play with the right team, and inflate your Defensive WAR stats by cutting in front of team-mates to catch routine fly balls (Hello Jason Heyward).

Reggie was a rare player who was bigger than his stats due to his nickname, personality, and flair for the dramatic. The list goes on and on: the light tower home run, the straw that stirs the drink, the Reggie bar, being yanked from right field on national TV, and of course all the World Series dramatics. I think at any point after 13 years or so he was a lock first ballot HOFer.

I was surprised he got in. To me, the HOF is for the truly great players, not just someone who is a personality with a bunch of t.v.-worthy moments and lots of time in the newspaper, along with being a very good, and well-above-average player. It's about 'great'. Unless you are a pitcher, you have to be a great hitter and a great fielder, and hitting involves average - .262 isn't a HOF batting average.

But before you start comparing Reggie to everyone else in the HOF, to me the HOF should be about half its current size.

?
 

Who is Adam Dunn???

Scott if you were surprised Reggie made the HOF, you are the only one in the world, is my guess. You may think he doesn't deserve it, but that's a different matter.

I agree, so if Reggie Jackson is a low end HOFer and his stats out rank Dunn's (and not by just a small margin) than it is obvious that Dunn is not a HOF by any stretch of the imagination.

Peter - I can assure you I was not the only one. .262 is weak by almost anyone's standards. Just as thete are some who think there is an automatic induction number for career hr's, I naively thought there was an automatic exclusion level for batting average, and it had to be somewhere above .262


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In my mind that is correct - no chance for Dunn.

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Scott, he had over 550 home runs and was the most famous and notorious player of his generation. I don't recall any surprise whatsoever.

.262, Peter

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Joe Tinker was voted in at .262. How were his power stats? :) And I bet there were a number of others with lower averages pre Reggie. Maranville -- .258. Another great slugger. Ray Schalk -- .253. Killebrew .256 -- surprised there too?

Slugging average. On base percentage. MUCH better by those metrics which were known well before the fancy WAR and OPS stuff.

Regardless of whether we're discussing the Hall of Fame, the Hall of Statistically Superior Players, or the Hall of Relevant Athletes Who Played Professional Baseball, I would like to believe that all of us can agree on one thing. Adam Dunn simply does not make the cut.

Best regards,

Eric

.262 - his batting average wasn't HOF-caliber. Other stuff certainly was.

He was really good, but not great. Once they let Jackson in with his weak batting average, it helped promote the idea that 500 HR's was enough, and that nothing else counted - certainly batting average didn't. You could say that Reggie is one of the reasons that some people are talking about Dunn. Batting average obviously isn't important anymore.

this is 2014, please stop talking about batting averages. next thing we're going to argue about is whether a pitcher with 12 wins deserve to win the CY?

this thread is about 200+ posts too many. a simple "no...because no one thought he was hof-material to start with" in the 2nd post would've suffice.

Killebrew was in a decade before Reggie with a BA in the .250s.

That's true. I conveniently did not bring up Killebrew :)

Jackson was more consistent while Killebrew had some massive HR and RBI years - many more than Jackson. But you are right - .256 batting average was mediocre, and if I'm going to kick Jackson out for that, I would have to remove Killebrew as well. My bias is probably that I always liked Killebrew and never liked Jackson. Kind of a 'Kirby Puckett vs Albert Belle' sort of thing.

It would be an interesting exercise to de-vote members from the HOF each year, until it was about half it's current size. I think there are many members who would get kicked out before either Jackson or Killebrew.

Out of 111 members who were voted in on a regular ballot (not veterans committee), Reggie has the 17th highest voting percentage. Granted, I never saw him play and wasn't around for his peak. I think you're right about the perfect storm of factors around him.

In addition to excellent reg season stats, HOF worthy, he played in 5 WS, won 4 of those (was injured for the WS on one of those Oakland teams) with 2 WS MVPs. For the 5 he played in, 27 games, he had a 1.2 OPS. He had a 1.7 OPS in the 77 series. Roided out Barry is impressed with that.

On the very biggest stage the game offers - WS with the Yankees, he was very truly the straw that stirred the drink.

Jackson deserved every vote he got. Dunn is just a guy.

No offense, but that means very little - the HOF is largely a popularity contest.

That's all true...and he batted .262

LOL - just checked Dunn's WAR. In 14 seasons, he has a total of 16.9. He is barely better than average. Heck, Mike Hargrove had 30 as a player in the same number of seasons. Grover for the Hall!

Of course not, or he would have gotten 100% of the voting. :)


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Brent, the great thing is that everyone here respects everyone else's opinion :rolleyes:

Scott, if he had scattered 200 more singles across 20 seasons, thereby raising his average to .280 or so, would that really make that much of a difference? It seems obvious to me (and most people) that Reggie is an easy choice for the HOF, as was Killebrew.

I was just surprised by how much support Reggie got. More people who saw him play thought he was a HOFer than people who watched Ted Williams play. That seemed unusual to me. Though admittedly the margin is very slim.

Post season success matters. Ted, for all his greatness, was shut down in his only World Series. No rings for Ted, 5 for Reggie. Makes a difference.

Anyone who didn't vote for Ted did so out of spite. Nothing to do with post season. Obviously no human being on the planet realistically could have believed Ted was not an all time great.

& Mays & Aaron...just folks tried for the fifteen minutes= idiots! and, as you say, spiteful idiots!

Question: Will this thread last longer until it is Dunn, or will it just Peter out?

Suppose Teddy Ballgame's feuding with some of the writers didn't help him when it came time for his HOF vote. Still no good reason for them not to vote for him.

And more than 5% of the voters didn't vote for Willie Mays. Unreal.

Yeah, I know he's an easy choice for most. I got that. I'm listening to you and respect your opinion.

What if Reggie's lifetime batting average had been .240 or a little lower - would you still say he's a HOF'er?

More water and we eventually get to Adam Dunn.

The slippery slope!!

LOL - if Reggie wasn't as good as he was, like much worse down to Dunn's level, what then?

Reggie was one of my favorites but I recognize that his deficiencies kept him from being a top tier hall of famer. But he was, IMO, a great hitter for most of his career. His numbers suffer not just from strikeouts but also because he played in a pitcher dominated era and for much of his career played in an awful park for hitters. Interestingly his career road BA is higher than three time batting title winner Carl Yastremzki's road BA.

I also think Reggie got a little too much credit for clutch hitting. As great as he was in the World Series he was pretty bad in the playoffs.

The slope hasn't gotten that slippery yet, and I doubt it will.

Has there ever been any Hall of excellence where admission requirements became tougher as the years went by?

Only one I can think of is golf. Used to be you only needed 50 percent. Now they have a smaller panel and you need 75. I think they also upped the minimum amount of tour wins.

I wonder how many members the HOF would have today, if the voting was done only by current HOF members.

Dunno, but if the voting was done by 54 members, based on threads I have seen, it might double.

Medal of Honor. When it started, they were handed out liberally. But as decades passed, it became a much harder thing, to the point where by 2000 you pretty much had to be superhuman, and die int he effort to get it. Relaxed somewhat under Obama.

No kidding. Threads like this one help remind me that even though I may disagree with some decisions made by the writers, that if "fans" voted it could be a lot worse.

I know people on both sides like to debate about too many / too few players but I think the Baseball Hall of Fame gets it right. Approximately 212 players (excluding Negro Leaguers) in Hall of Fame vs. approximately 18,000 players who have played MLB, or 1.2% of all players. To me, that is not "letting the floodgates open". At the same time, it is elite enough where every year very few players get in (unlike NFL / NBA/ NHL Halls of Fame) and there are some very good players excluded.

That being said, I will go to my grave believing Keith Hernandez is a Hall of Famer.

This thread is to crazy. Dunn will never get into the HOF. Please!!!!! The HOF is for great players not average players.

Joe

Yes sir! Love learning about everyone's opinions on players and the history of the game. Again, I do not think Dunn is a HOF'er. He has tremendous power though


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+1....Holy cow, I don't even know that I would count Dunn as an average player...

So did Dave Kingman...If I had a choice with the game on the line, I would take even him over Dunn....

I'll pass on both :)


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Wow! This is an awful lot of words about Adam Dunn, a guy I would have never put in the same sentence with HOF.