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-   -   New York Times Leaf Article (http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=356268)

Snowman 12-21-2024 02:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Balticfox (Post 2482667)
I agree. I believe the number of ungraded cards in private collections still dwarves the number of graded specimens.
Sure, for something like 1962 Topps Sandy Koufax, that's obviously true. But it's certainly not true for T206 Eddie Plank or even 1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson.

The percentage of graded vs ungraded copies of any particular card is largely a function of its value. The number of ungraded T206 Wagners still floating around is likely very close to zero these days. Perhaps there are one or three yet to be discovered, but the likelihood that there are dozens of them sitting around in attics is almost certainly zero.

There are still some collectors out there who, as a point of pride or preference, like to keep their prized cards like 52 Mantles and 48 Leaf Paiges raw, but there aren't very many of them left in terms of percentage of the population. And every time those cards come to market, they still get graded (or regraded). And any time you have a vintage card that is so valuable that it must be graded regardless of condition in order for it to be transactable on the market for anything other than pennies on the dollar of its true value, you can be pretty sure that the pop reports for that card reflect something close to it's true population, if not slightly exaggerating it due to resubmissions (which are MUCH higher than most people here realize). So this would work for something like estimating the true population for 52 Mantles, but definitely not for estimating the 53 Mantle population (there are other sampling techniques we could use to estimate that, but that's another discussion and one I'd prefer not to get into here).

And while yes, I agree with those who say there are still plenty of 52 Mantles out there to be graded, the reality is that those numbers are dwarfed by the number of copies that are/were cracked and resubmitted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Balticfox (Post 2482667)
Actually, could you provide comparative numbers for the topps 1952 Mickey Mantle card to put the above figures into perspective?

:confused:
1952 Topps Mickey Mantle = 2863 total pop (2040 PSA, 673 SGC, 147 BVG, 3 CGC)

The 52 Topps Mantle likely has a very similar print run as the 48 Leaf Jackie Robinson. Maybe 10% or so higher at most.

OhioLawyerF5 12-21-2024 06:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Balticfox (Post 2482665)
I brought out Adam Smith and P.T. Barnum. Who more do you want? Taylor Swift? I'm happier to leave her in your corner.

And had not my contention been intrinsically sound, you wouldn't have been immediately compelled to simply obfuscate by calling upon my "sources".



Oh?! Here. Let me give you a quick lesson in both logic and set theory. Only some consumers are also collectors. But all collectors are nonetheless consumers. Therefore collectors are a subset of the set of consumers. Collectors therefore share the traits of consumers.

My apologies though for venturing into set theory which is a subset of mathematics. I know many of you individuals in the legal field went into law because math isn't your strong point. But numbers very often intrude into the real world, they really do.



I won't ask you for your "source" because that's absolute, unmitigated nonsense that can be dismissed with one or two quick counter examples.

The very oldest semi-organized field of collecting may be that for coins. Coin collecting predates the Roman Empire. The coins most prized by collectors are those which best combine scarcity and aesthetic appeal. Those coins are rarely the oldest. For example, coins picturing the Emperor Decius postdate those picturing the Emperor Tiberius by nearly 250 years but Decius coins are more highly prized because they're rarer.

And in the art world it's not a painter's earliest pictures that fetch the biggest bucks, it's his best.



Actually he can. It may come as a surprise to you, but those two factors can go hand-in-hand.



After your long-winded characterizing of collectors as those who inherently prize the old, you now have the gall to accuse another poster of denigrating the way others collect? What about all those collectors snapping up the new 2025 releases of sports cards? You've implied that they're not proper collectors because they're not going after the oldest.

Incidentally the word is "rationalize". Yes, yes, I make mistakes too. But at least I have sufficient consideration for my fellow posters to read over my posts with a view to editing out any mistakes.



Hey, despite your many and varied personal deficiencies, you too can have an impact (at least on this board)! How do you like my "new" old avatar which I'm resurrecting to better showcase the sly side of my character?

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...0fa17e98fe.jpg

;)
404 Error: Logic not found

Case in point, I never denigrated people who do not collect the earliest. If you knew anything about me, you'd know I don't collect the earliest. My argument was just that you can't support your assertion that collectors like rookies because dealers duped them into it. And I've been right all along. In all your walls of text, you've yet to even attempt to prove that claim. You keep making irrelevant arguments using poor logic about statements I made, all while missing the point.

I guess I'll just wait for you to produce literally any evidence to support your claim. But I won't hold my breath.

By the way, since it's clear it went over your head, "[citation needed]" is a meme based in wikipedia, meaning you have posted something without supporting evidence.

Peter_Spaeth 12-21-2024 08:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowman (Post 2482676)
Sure, for something like 1962 Topps Sandy Koufax, that's obviously true. But it's certainly not true for T206 Eddie Plank or even 1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson.

The percentage of graded vs ungraded copies of any particular card is largely a function of its value. The number of ungraded T206 Wagners still floating around is likely very close to zero these days. Perhaps there are one or three yet to be discovered, but the likelihood that there are dozens of them sitting around in attics is almost certainly zero.

There are still some collectors out there who, as a point of pride or preference, like to keep their prized cards like 52 Mantles and 48 Leaf Paiges raw, but there aren't very many of them left in terms of percentage of the population. And every time those cards come to market, they still get graded (or regraded). And any time you have a vintage card that is so valuable that it must be graded regardless of condition in order for it to be transactable on the market for anything other than pennies on the dollar of its true value, you can be pretty sure that the pop reports for that card reflect something close to it's true population, if not slightly exaggerating it due to resubmissions (which are MUCH higher than most people here realize). So this would work for something like estimating the true population for 52 Mantles, but definitely not for estimating the 53 Mantle population (there are other sampling techniques we could use to estimate that, but that's another discussion and one I'd prefer not to get into here).

And while yes, I agree with those who say there are still plenty of 52 Mantles out there to be graded, the reality is that those numbers are dwarfed by the number of copies that are/were cracked and resubmitted.



1952 Topps Mickey Mantle = 2863 total pop (2040 PSA, 673 SGC, 147 BVG, 3 CGC)

The 52 Topps Mantle likely has a very similar print run as the 48 Leaf Jackie Robinson. Maybe 10% or so higher at most.
After three and a half decades of grading, IMO this romantic notion of countless pristine raw collections in the hands of mostly unknown old timers is largely a myth.

Pat R 12-21-2024 08:40 AM
1 Attachment(s)
All of the factual evidence that I've seen shows the short print distribution in states that border Canada west of Pennsylvania.

I have posted this ad before from a May 12 1949 Spokane Washington newspaper. The ad states 6 cards in a pack and that's how many cards were in the packs in the Rosen short print find from Michigan all of the evidence on the first series is 5 cards in a pack.

Attachment 644469

tjisonline 12-21-2024 03:46 PM
My guess..

Taking all the crack and resubs into account, more likely the true number of graded 1952T Mick's are closer to the number of 52T Jackie graded (1968) than the current 2862. …and the true number of 1952 T jackie cards graded are prob closer to Bobby Thompson's 1175 than 1968 (as his card isn’t being cracked much).


Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowman (Post 2482676)
Sure, for something like 1962 Topps Sandy Koufax, that's obviously true. But it's certainly not true for T206 Eddie Plank or even 1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson.

The percentage of graded vs ungraded copies of any particular card is largely a function of its value.

And while yes, I agree with those who say there are still plenty of 52 Mantles out there to be graded, the reality is that those numbers are dwarfed by the number of copies that are/were cracked and resubmitted.



1952 Topps Mickey Mantle = 2863 total pop (2040 PSA, 673 SGC, 147 BVG, 3 CGC)

The 52 Topps Mantle likely has a very similar print run as the 48 Leaf Jackie Robinson. Maybe 10% or so higher at most.

Aquarian Sports Cards 12-21-2024 05:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowman (Post 2482646)
I would argue that getting two raw Paiges to grade graduates to you at least medium potatoes land.

LOL so I got that going for me, which is nice.

raulus 12-21-2024 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards (Post 2482861)
LOL so I got that going for me, which is nice.
Time to put this testimonial on your marketing materials. “Certified medium potatoes!”

Aquarian Sports Cards 12-21-2024 07:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by raulus (Post 2482870)
Time to put this testimonial on your marketing materials. “Certified medium potatoes!”
I actually laughed out loud.

Balticfox 12-22-2024 12:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5 (Post 2482687)
404 Error: Logic not found
Neither is common sense in your case. Have you ever even opened a Logic textbook? You know, one with basic syllogisms such as (-A ----> A) ----> A .

Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5 (Post 2482687)
Case in point, I never denigrated people who do not collect the earliest.
But you did say:

Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5 (Post 2482415)
Many collectors prefer the first/earliest issue. This isn't unique to sports cards, and it wasn't dreamed up by a bunch of dealers.... It's literally human nature.
And now you're even offering yourself up as yet another counter example!

Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5 (Post 2482415)
If you knew anything about me, you'd know I don't collect the earliest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5 (Post 2482415)
My argument was just that you can't support your assertion that collectors like rookies because dealers duped them into it.
My support comes from the fact that both the man on the street and newbie collectors are bewildered at all the fuss regarding rookie cards. Even my old childhood collecting buddy wondered decades later why rookie cards fetched more collecting interest than say the card from the player's best year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5 (Post 2482415)
And I've been right all along.
Only in your dreams.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5 (Post 2482415)
In all your walls of text, you've yet to even attempt to prove that claim. You keep making irrelevant arguments using poor logic about statements I made....
Were you any kind of logician, you'd know that positive assertions border on impossible to prove. But negative assertions can be disproven with one simple counter example.

For example, I provided not just one but several counter examples to your assertion that collectors naturally prefer the old.

Moreover you argued that collectors are a set distinct from consumers. This is nonsense since collectors are nonetheless a subset of consumers (and thus influenced by marketing).

Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5 (Post 2482415)
By the way, since it's clear it went over your head, "[citation needed]" is a meme based in wikipedia, meaning you have posted something without supporting evidence.
Sorry. I never claimed omniscience. Only common sense.

:p

samosa4u 12-22-2024 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yanks87 (Post 2482608)
This is the legend and lore that I love around this set. First off, yes, skip numbered, all LEAF sets were except for the 1948 Football offering.

As far as the pack assortment and distribution of cards. This was not modern printing, there was not an order that things came off the press, these cards were printed, cut, and placed into packs by hand. Then the boxes were packed randomly by hand. It would be like taking 40 decks of cards, throwing them in the air and trying to play blackjack guessing when you would hit 21.
Makes sense. This was a product of the 40s and everything back then was so different. A person could've purchased five boxes and pulled maybe one Paige and another guy could've pulled five Paiges in one box!! Rosen was lucky to have even found those boxes, however, they were obviously not the best ones!

Quote:
Originally Posted by yanks87 (Post 2482658)
100% right, Peterson was not short printed, but, that variation represents a 2nd printing of the first run of cards that had changes made to the printing plates making them true variations. I have side by side comparisons in my book but essentially the late printing of the main 49 card have both subtractions and additions to the printing plates which create a variant version of those non short printed cards. For those who run down the rabbit hole, like I did, this variation would equate to higher value on a lower population of variant cards. SO, a blue hat DiMaggio should be worth more than a black hat, same for a red hat Musial or a blue hat Jackie. But that is probably an argument for another thread! Thanks for the numbers!
This is interesting and I remember having a few discussions on here about this subject during the pandemic. How do you know that the blue hats were not a first printing instead ?? Also, do you have any idea why Leaf decided to make these changes ?? I was never in the printing industry, but I do have a basic understanding of CMYK printing. If they had rolled the black ink on top of the blue hat, then it would've given it its 3D shaded look (like the way most of them look like), but for some reason, Leaf decided to leave the black ink off the hat during that particular print-run, and again, I have no idea why they did this. Aesthetic reasons ?? Maybe trying to save black ink ?? :D

And I gotta' get your book, man !! :cool:

yanks87 12-22-2024 05:22 PM
This is interesting and I remember having a few discussions on here about this subject during the pandemic. How do you know that the blue hats were not a first printing instead ?? Also, do you have any idea why Leaf decided to make these changes ?? I was never in the printing industry, but I do have a basic understanding of CMYK printing. If they had rolled the black ink on top of the blue hat, then it would've given it its 3D shaded look (like the way most of them look like), but for some reason, Leaf decided to leave the black ink off the hat during that particular print-run, and again, I have no idea why they did this. Aesthetic reasons ?? Maybe trying to save black ink ?? :D

And I gotta' get your book, man !! :cool:[/QUOTE]

Several factors pointed at the BLACK HATS being first. The strongest voice was that of the collectors that were alive during the first run and buying the cards. TedZ was the Rosetta Stone on this and so many others. Also if you look at the cards from the Antique Roadshow link, those were collected in Massachusetts, which is where the cards were first distributed. All of those cards, and all of Ted's had black hats, the removal of the black plate details made the cards brighter, and I am guessing that was direct feedback from sales or consumers. They also added color bars to close off the backgrounds, so it was a multiple plate change, making it truly a variation! Exciting stuff, I can talk about it all day long.

samosa4u 12-23-2024 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowman (Post 2482676)
Sure, for something like 1962 Topps Sandy Koufax, that's obviously true. But it's certainly not true for T206 Eddie Plank or even 1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson.

The percentage of graded vs ungraded copies of any particular card is largely a function of its value. The number of ungraded T206 Wagners still floating around is likely very close to zero these days. Perhaps there are one or three yet to be discovered, but the likelihood that there are dozens of them sitting around in attics is almost certainly zero.

There are still some collectors out there who, as a point of pride or preference, like to keep their prized cards like 52 Mantles and 48 Leaf Paiges raw, but there aren't very many of them left in terms of percentage of the population. And every time those cards come to market, they still get graded (or regraded). And any time you have a vintage card that is so valuable that it must be graded regardless of condition in order for it to be transactable on the market for anything other than pennies on the dollar of its true value, you can be pretty sure that the pop reports for that card reflect something close to it's true population, if not slightly exaggerating it due to resubmissions (which are MUCH higher than most people here realize). So this would work for something like estimating the true population for 52 Mantles, but definitely not for estimating the 53 Mantle population (there are other sampling techniques we could use to estimate that, but that's another discussion and one I'd prefer not to get into here).

And while yes, I agree with those who say there are still plenty of 52 Mantles out there to be graded, the reality is that those numbers are dwarfed by the number of copies that are/were cracked and resubmitted.



1952 Topps Mickey Mantle = 2863 total pop (2040 PSA, 673 SGC, 147 BVG, 3 CGC)

The 52 Topps Mantle likely has a very similar print run as the 48 Leaf Jackie Robinson. Maybe 10% or so higher at most.
First of all, mad props to you for posting all this data. It's very helpful. Thank you.

Everything that you wrote above is a very interesting topic and worthy of its own thread. Here in Toronto, we have the biggest card show in the country twice a year. I have these American buddies of mine that always come down, and whenever they do, they ALWAYS get a 52T Mantle ... or two. I also have some dealer buddies who live in Quebec and they find this card every now and then as well. And this is just Canada I'm talking about !! Imagine the US ?? Wayyy bigger population and wayyy more cards !! In the next ten years or so, I believe that we’re gonna’ see hundreds and hundreds of these cards come outta’ boomer collections. It's gonna' be wild, bro.

Oh, and in the last REA auction, I was checking out the Leaf Jackies and noticed how most of the PSA-graded examples had new serial numbers. It's starting ... lol

samosa4u 12-23-2024 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brent G. (Post 2482621)
Let’s be honest — the Leaf photo/image is absolutely hideous.
The set just screams Andy Warhol and I love it !! But the Paige card is fugly !! What the hell was Leaf thinking choosing this image below to make his card ?? The Bowman blows it outta' the water !!

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/7~wAA...yo/s-l1200.jpg

https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/c...8/images/1.jpg

Balticfox 12-23-2024 09:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samosa4u (Post 2483360)
Here in Toronto, we have the biggest card show in the country twice a year. I have these American buddies of mine that always come down, and whenever they do, they ALWAYS get a 52T Mantle ... or two. I also have some dealer buddies who live in Quebec and they find this card every now and then as well. And this is just Canada I'm talking about !! Imagine the US ?? Wayyy bigger population and wayyy more cards !! In the next ten years or so, I believe that we’re gonna’ see hundreds and hundreds of these cards come outta’ boomer collections. It's gonna' be wild, bro.

Oh, and in the last REA auction, I was checking out the Leaf Jackies and noticed how most of the PSA-graded examples had new serial numbers. It's starting ... lol
I agree! It's all about the demographics. Boomers fuelled both the card and comic collecting hobbies, and they've now begun to cash in before they cash out.

;)

LincolnVT 12-25-2024 07:56 AM
Leaf
 
1 Attachment(s)
Regardless, it’s a pretty cool set with some great cards.

Exhibitman 12-25-2024 08:17 AM
The first American Musial was the 1946 Sears postcard.

Peter_Spaeth 12-25-2024 09:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exhibitman (Post 2483615)
The first American Musial was the 1946 Sears postcard.
I've seen mentions of it over the years but I don't think anyone has ever posted an image?

Brent G. 12-25-2024 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samosa4u (Post 2483364)
The set just screams Andy Warhol and I love it !! But the Paige card is fugly !! What the hell was Leaf thinking choosing this image below to make his card ?? The Bowman blows it outta' the water !!

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/7~wAA...yo/s-l1200.jpg

https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/c...8/images/1.jpg
Yeah pretty sure the subject shouldn’t have their eyes closed, and to me, the shading on the Jackie makes him look deformed.

samosa4u 12-25-2024 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LincolnVT (Post 2483613)
Regardless, it’s a pretty cool set with some great cards.
Wow !! Is that Jackie yours ??? Full-sized example with great centering !! Must be worth like 100k Usd.

I've seen some high-grade examples that are a bit "short" and it always scares me considering that Gary Moser used to love chopping these up (and maybe still does !!) :eek::eek:

GeoPoto 12-25-2024 12:39 PM
Thank you to Samosa for showing the Paige. Ugly, or not, beautiful example of a hard-to-get card. I'm guessing they had the right to use that image and Paige was a tough negotiator. Or hard to find.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

jason.1969 12-25-2024 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoPoto (Post 2483651)
Thank you to Samosa for showing the Paige. Ugly, or not, beautiful example of a hard-to-get card. I'm guessing they had the right to use that image and Paige was a tough negotiator. Or hard to find.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

Leaf had zero agreements in place with players or teams. You can read a ton about their approach to photos and images here. https://sabrbaseballcards.blog/2024/...leaf-us-alone/

jason.1969 12-25-2024 02:15 PM
The discussions of Robinson, Musial, Spahn, and others only emphasize the fact that there is no universal definition of rookie card. In truth, there is not even a universal definition of “baseball card.” On one hand, the inherent subjectivity of it all creates ambiguity and chaos. On the other hand, it creates freedom and choice.

bbcard1 12-25-2024 04:42 PM
Everyone has the right to their own opinions, but having heard all the arguments, I think I would lean toward the Swell Gum Robinson.

Snowman 12-25-2024 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LincolnVT (Post 2483613)
Regardless, it’s a pretty cool set with some great cards.
That's a beautiful copy! Someone did a really nice job cleaning/conserving that one! Looks great.

Snowman 12-25-2024 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason.1969 (Post 2483675)
The discussions of Robinson, Musial, Spahn, and others only emphasize the fact that there is no universal definition of rookie card. In truth, there is not even a universal definition of “baseball card.” On one hand, the inherent subjectivity of it all creates ambiguity and chaos. On the other hand, it creates freedom and choice.
Well said. For me, a player's "rookie card" is the first card printed of a player that I'd actually want to own. So for Musial, that's the 48/49 Leaf, and for Pete Rose, that's the 1964 Topps.

LincolnVT 12-25-2024 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowman (Post 2483733)
That's a beautiful copy! Someone did a really nice job cleaning/conserving that one! Looks great.
Haha! It’s really sharp and nice to look at. Thanks. Nicer than most 7s, some 8s and even a 9 or 2 in my opinion. Tough condition card…like many in the set.

Snowman 12-26-2024 01:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LincolnVT (Post 2483743)
Haha! It’s really sharp and nice to look at. Thanks. Nicer than most 7s, some 8s and even a 9 or 2 in my opinion. Tough condition card…like many in the set.
I'd say it's nicer than most 8s and 9s. It's certainly nicer than every 8 or 9 with a cert number that starts with a 1 or 0, which probably accounts for 90% of the 8s and 9s out there. Almost all of which would probably regrade as 6s, 7s, or trimmed today.

samosa4u 12-26-2024 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowman (Post 2483733)
That's a beautiful copy! Someone did a really nice job cleaning/conserving that one! Looks great.
The scan is just very bright and so it looks that way. Here is a better one on the PSA website:

https://d1htnxwo4o0jhw.cloudfront.ne...4TLa6KqgaA.jpg

If you zoom in then you can see the oxidation, especially the top border.

It looks good.

BigfootIsReal 12-26-2024 11:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samosa4u (Post 2483842)
The scan is just very bright and so it looks that way. Here is a better one on the PSA website:

https://d1htnxwo4o0jhw.cloudfront.ne...4TLa6KqgaA.jpg

If you zoom in then you can see the oxidation, especially the top border.

It looks good.
I might regret it, but I would trade straight across for my BB Portrait in a 5.5

calvindog 12-26-2024 11:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigfootIsReal (Post 2483859)
I might regret it, but I would trade straight across for my BB Portrait in a 5.5
That's very generous of you!

BigfootIsReal 12-26-2024 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by calvindog (Post 2483860)
That's very generous of you!
I think so too. A Rook for a second year card

calvindog 12-26-2024 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigfootIsReal (Post 2483863)
I think so too. A Rook for a second year card
Wait. I thought you sold that card on the BST?

BigfootIsReal 12-26-2024 01:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by calvindog (Post 2483871)
Wait. I thought you sold that card on the BST?
No one wants it

Gary Dunaier 12-28-2024 09:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samosa4u (Post 2483113)
This was a product of the 40s and everything back then was so different. A person could've purchased five boxes and pulled maybe one Paige and another guy could've pulled five Paiges in one box!!
It's like the famous Peanuts comic strip where Charlie Brown buys 500 packs of baseball cards in an unsuccessful quest to get his favorite player, Joe Shlabotnik, then Lucy buys one pack...

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...94e79a61_c.jpg


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