Exactly right, and just think how that could also then apply to scrutiny and oversight of TPGs who review and opine on the sports cards and other items now being sold as investments. Just like the rules and regulations that CPAs who opine on the financial statements of publicly traded companies have to follow.

Like how a CPA cannot ever charge a contingent fee for any work or services they provide so they maintain their independence and do not have any potential bias or conflicts of interest, in both fact AND APPEARANCE! If that were similarly applied to TPGs, then they could technically only charge the exact same amount to grade a 1988 Gregg Jefferies rookie card as they would for grading a '52 Topps Mantle card, assuming they were providing the same exact service(s)/work. Now, how nice would that be that you are only charged for the actual work/services they perform, and not for what they can maybe get away with? Also, in the case of owners/employees of a TPG, they likely would never be allowed to have their own cards/items be graded or otherwise serviced by the same TPG they owned/worked for. For example, David Hall owned one of, if not the most celebrated T206 card collections of all time at one point, to my understanding. He also was behind the creation of, and at one time a major owner of, Collectors Universe I believe, which also (or at least did) own PSA as a wholly owned subsidiary. I wonder while still an owner who he may have had grading his T206 cards? Likewise, now that CU/PSA have been taken over by private ownership (and is no longer publicly traded), including by such as Nat Turner, I wonder who he has/would have do the work of grading any cards he may want to get graded now? That kind of thing happening would be a totally improper and unbelievably and absolutely biased conflict of interest occurrence and should never be (or have been) allowed to happen.

One of the things I've noticed about crypto and meme stocks and card investing is how similarly the participants behave. There is an almost palpable sense of giving the middle finger to The Man in all of it, hence the hostility of the young towards mainstream investments like mutual funds. The card 'bros i see at shows would be right at home selling weed. Same style as the drug dealers who used to supply our highs in college. That makes it harder to promote an investment angle on cards. Too many players want to be 'playas', not investors, and stubbornly resist efforts to professionalize the hobby or make it look like a mainstream investment. So many collectors also like the sheer transgressiveness of buying and selling in cash in a field without much regulation. It gives them that "G's and keys" swagger to throw around cash, feel like a street guy, but with cards and without any real danger. Look at some of the linguistic stylings of the hobby: buyer's premium is "vig", cards are "product", etc. The fact that the authorities don't really seem to care actually is a selling point.

The Singer interview in the current WSJ is apt. Fed’s response to every crisis is to print money and the rise of crypto is a libertarian impulse for the disdain on the fed’s disrespect to fiat currency… article is bearish on crypto which I agree on, it root principles to crypto and art/cards are the same. An alternative store of value. But art and cards have another thing going for them, they can’t be produced in any more quantities that that exist out there. There will be “finds” but supply is pretty much set (sans e98 prior to bsf). And there is something tangible to the asset unlike “ether” assets.

Always thought and still think employment is the highest coefficient in card prices (as it affects demand (by people’s wherewithal) and supply (as people need to sell to fund cost of living). And with that metric we’re doing pretty good.

Of course there’s asset beta, which is what we are feeling today, as people “trade” based on how far cards appreciated and where they think cards will go. But as a long term driver, it’s hard to argue against the initial point as to why cards are a good store of value in a diversified asset portfolio.

It is hard to argue against alternative value stores in inflationary times. Whether it is a store or a scam is the question and at least with a card (or gold or real estate) there is something tangible, as long as you actually have possession of it. The rest is just speculating on the potential gains of one asset versus another over time. For example, I wouldn't have wanted to invest in New York City commercial real estate in 2019. It may be tangible but remote working has made a disaster of it. I'll say one thing for cards in particular:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...%20Mantle.jpeg

They're a lot prettier to look at than a deed.

Over/Under on the PSA 1955 Koufax in Goldin was set at $345k.

We are at $258k w/ BP on the one in REA, with 4 days left.

I took the under, but doubting that a little

A Paige mint 9 just sold for $211k at Mile High. A stones throw away from the last sale of $228k which was the only post-pandemic sale and up 7x from the last time one sold in 2018! So the super high end rare stuff is certainly strong. The less rare stuff not so much it seems. I noticed the Seaver rookie for instance still is well off it’s highs from the past few year as one example of a card that while isn’t rare with around 100 mint example, still doesn’t come up every other auction.

Too Painful
 

Thanks, Ryan. I’d like to participate, but it’s too painful. In the mid 90’s, I had a chance to buy one for $1,800 (“2 x High Beckett”)… AND I PASSED!

hi whos buying these cards hedge funds,high end collectors ,,who lol..i just bought a 48 leaf joe gordon almost had a heart attack.

They seem to change hands like musical chairs from auction house to auction house.

hi johnny your correct about that and the new stuff trades at huge loses

Agree 100% Rjackson
So is some, key word some of the vintage… 52 Mays PSA 8 and 52 Jackie PSA 8 well off their highs. A couple ended last night

Well, when it comes to that 52T Mays PSA 8, the centering/tilt acolytes will rant all day long about how it was sketchy in that regard. Plus it was an early cert, so there's that taint as well. In any event, $160K is still about 5x what it would have sold for pre-pandemic. But it is nice that it's no longer 8x or 10x!

http://milehighcardco.com/1952_Topps...-LOT92067.aspx

Jack, Ugh. I bet that would have a gone a long way toward the day payment on a super nice condo outside Nashville :)

Octavio, I imagine that 99% of the people seeking to buy a card like this, view the card as an asset/investment. Perhaps it is a speculator or Fund of sorts, who simply looks at the card as a commodity. Or, it could be someone, like me, who loves cards and really enjoys owning them, but is really looking at cards as a separate form of investment/asset. For example, Ken Kendrick probably bought the Gretzky Wagner bc he thought it would be awesome to own, but you know he 100% bought it expecting to make money and thinking it was a great place to invest $5mm (or whatever it sold for). Bottom line, the buyer is buying it for investment.

One thing I've thought about is whether being on a multiiplayer RC hurts value. Just seems that quite a few of the "gee, that should cost more" postwar rookies are multiplayer cards.

It certainly hasn't hurt the Ryan rookie being a multiplayer card....

Robert Edwards has a Koufax PSA 9 ending tomorrow. Let's see where that one ends.

I actually built a multivariate statistical model to measure the effects of a player's RC being a multi player card, which also measured the effects of their 2nd year card being their first solo card (and not, for those with solo RCs), and the effects of having the rookie cup on the card. The data I collected took all HOFers first 3 years of Topps cards (excluding 52 & 53) and their relative prices in similar grade/value ranges.

I'd have to dig to find it, but I seem to recall that having a multi player RC made it worth something like 30% less on average than it would have been were it to be a solo RC. And that having a 2nd year card with a rookie cup or trophy being a player's first solo card made it worth something like 20% more than it would have otherwise been were that not the case.

Also, they have been many huge finds of High grade 1968 topps. That also must weigh on prices

And the REA Koufax is officially over 345K. We have a winner!

Ha, I was just checking that! Now, the over/under was technically on the Goldin 9, which has not yet come to auction (it was in a preview that came out before we knew REA has a 9).

The over/under was $345k and its currently at $384k :eek:

On the second bet I’m going REA because it was first


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For the past 6-7 years, I have kept a running spreadsheet tracking items that I am interested for sale in current auctions. For each card I am interested in, I track the current bid, the cost with BP, and the cost of the next bid with BP; I also have a side sheet that adds taxes and other expenses, so I can estimate the all-in cost to me. As part of this spreadsheet, I do a deep valuation of the cards I track and I often account for the overall SGC-PSA population (both separate and combined). I color-code each item -- blue is within 10% high or low of my estimate, green is 10%+ lower than my estimate, and red is 10%+ higher than my estimate. In general, I am pretty good at estimating the final price (hammer + BP) on items I am interested in.

I did this for the REA auction last night. Of the 21 cards I tracked, 7 were within 10% of my estimate, 4 were below my estimate, and 10 (almost 50%) ended above my estimate. To me, that signals one of two things: (i) I am not good at estimating, which may be true, or (ii) the results in REA last night were quite strong.

Of particular note, Wagners are on fire, with every Wagner I followed ending at or above (sometimes substantially above) my estimate. Look at the M116 blue Wagner SGC 3, which finished about $4k higher than the blue SGC 3 Cobb -- Wagner outpricing Cobb in the same card and grade is not something you normally see

I'm going to go with that the results in REA were really strong last night, and that your estimates were accurate. I really wanted that Wagner PC976 Sepia postcard, but the price was just too high.

I have given up predicting REA results, especially with this one:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=139372

Was it Paying crazy for just the front of the card or Maybe someone on the DL who can re-back the card and get it through, with a 6 or who better. Who knows trust nothing you hear and only half of what you see.

It seems that people are finally getting what they've been asking for: "buy the card, not the grade." That seems to be what happened here, as it did last month when an SGC 2 Leaf Ted Williams with serious back damage went for over $20K. The people who bought it made multiple social media posts defending their purchase.

Your 10% advice came in handy last night at REA. There were 2-t205 upgrades for my set, one of which was something I never thought I'd upgrade. I thought I was out and then remembered our discussion in Chantilly a year or so ago when you said that if it was within 10%, it was a good idea to just get it since that kind of thing likely never comes up for auction. So I placed one more bid which fell within 10% of my number and won it. You can likely guess the card as I don't have many t205s I can even find to upgrade!

On your original comment, I missed on the under but as you've said, the Goldin Koufax was the question. It will be interesting to see how they compare. I have no idea which is stronger or if they're the same but I take the under there. We'll see!!

Ryan, I do the same thing, but not as detailed as yours. just to give me an idea on trends. Some are up, some are down, my overall list is off about 10% from its peak but at 279% of what it was pre-pandemic. The twist with mine is that I track lower grades.

FWIW, the lots I tracked in REA finished quite strong. $4560 for a 1947 Bond Bread Robinson in a 1 is a nice price. A 2 sold for less last December. Lower grade 1952 T Mantle cards did well too. A PSA 2 went for $45,600 and an SGC 2 with lousy centering was $33,600.

I did notice a couple high end cards that were way off their highs. The PSA 9 Topps Jackie and the 24 Aguilitas Oscar Charleston both went for considerably less than 2021/2022 sales of comparable cards.

With the new video surfacing I wonder if it will affect the high grade market? Those assets could fall if they aren't believed in.
.

My thoughts too Leon,
That video really opened my eyes, I’m now starting to look at pew-war 6’s with a jaundiced eye.

Which video are you talking about?

See thread titled “Card Doctoring Video”

Former NFL player and suspected trimmer Evan Mathis confirmed it to the world by posting a 5 minute how to guide on TikTok… he then poked fun at Collectors/PSA owner Nat Turner saying that is how all his high grade cards got their grades… he did this with a paper cutter, wax paper, engineers ruler, file board, loupe, and the blunt end of an xacto knife type pen thing. Trimming on a budget

That paragraph is real, I wish I was trolling…


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Ryan, I thought the Collins Hornsby did very well. Strong price for a seldom seen card from a relatively obscure set.

The Wagner candy cards have to be the stars of this round of auctions so far though. Those Memory Lane prices looked very strong to me.

+1. I was surprised on the Collins Hornsby too. 54k is a good chunk of money..
.

Very strong price. I do think the card is worth that- I think it’s been a very undervalued card for a while and is now getting its due. That said, most of the pricing in memory lane was super strong indicating strength (and a testament to memory lane).

Another one coming to REA next week

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...085013188f.jpg


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If the market does crash and the value of our cards plummets, the true collectors will still have their cards and with that comes the love of our favorite players, their times and even the game itself. Let's not forget the game.

I went back to my initial post and the PSA 9 introduced in that still has not yet gone on sale- It was a preview and the auction starts July 27th!

But since I started the thread, a PSA 9 Koufax did sell in REA (April) for $384k, which was well over the $345k over/under I set and, as you can see from the updated VCP info posted below, is on par with sales in 2022.

Ryan - ready to make an updated call? $450k?

I think we should increase the line. How about $470k

Regarding state of the market/hobby/industry- I woke up this morning, realized Heritage was open, and I placed 39 different initial/placeholder bids totaling just over $2.9mm with buyers premium. I fully expect none of those bids to win. In fact, I expect that by mid week, I will have $0 at rush and 0 high bids. (Keep in mind, it’s easy to get to $2.9mm when you place $300k bids on cards that will likely sell for $500k+). I don’t know if that means that the hobby is healthy economically or there is just a ton of great stuff now for sale, or both.

Certainly plenty of people with way too much money running around and buying stuff. Not sure how to interpret that phenomenon in terms of what it means for the market/hobby, except it sure is a nice time to be selling high quality stuff.

And I suspect the auction houses won’t complain!

Looks like the bidding is up to $170k so far ($204k with the juice), with 26 days left.

https://goldin.co/item/1955-topps-12...sa-mint-9ka38t

BTW- reading my post above, I was sarcastic with the $470k. But the REA sale shows, at the least, that PSA 9 Koufax’s are doing just fine.

And based on the stuff I was watching, and the one card I won, in REA, prewar seems to be just fine as well. Heritage ends this weekend, then LOTG and memory lane (mile high hasn’t even opened). So many amazing offerings and it appears strong prices persist. As a buyer, it’s a little surprising and quite annoying!

Final answer: $288k. Kind of a let down..

https://goldin.co/item/1955-topps-12...sa-mint-9ka38t

So was the Aaron at $480k!

Interesting. I had no idea the auction ended. A let down indeed. $288k is by FAR the lowest that card has sold for in the past 3 years (5 other sales)- 20% less the next lowest sale. I wonder whether it’s a canary in the coal mine for other high grade commodity cards or whether some other factor was at work.

I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.

But I digress.

Is there still a stink on Goldin? Perhaps there are players who don’t want to bid with him?