The leverage adjustment is not something I have ever heard of before, but even with it, closers just don't do well with WAR.

I am not sure how you would analyze it statistically, but I've always thought relief pitchers' stats are favorably skewed because they don't get charged for letting inherited runners score.

Ummm, yeah, no. He has about 700 more strikeouts than Pettite in about the same amount of seasons.....also has a Cy Young...plus, no HGH admission. So, yeah, he is not pretty much Andy Pettite. He is a lock.

Hernandez should be in....11 Gold Gloves, the most of any 1st baseman.

He'll get in within the next couple of years....

And 162 homers.

If you start a 1B's HOF case talking about his defense, he doesn't belong.

11 Gold Gloves ...

60 WAR....

MVP...

Silver Sluggers

That's good enough for me ..

Man maybe it's because I'm a Dodger fan but I'm certainly don't see Posey as a first ballot and have questions about him even making it. Even at a position that SHOULD have lower standards due to the physical demands of the job his totals are SO low. Not a lot of 1500 hit, 700 RBI, 600 Run, 150 HR guys in the hall even at catcher. A 44 career WAR doesn't impress much either. Great player, but not sure about HOF player.

What about Molina? His counting stats are all higher because he played a lot longer than Posey, but his WAR is actually a little lower at 42.1.

Catchers are definitely looked at differently than other positions so I think they both will eventually get in, but not necessarily on the first ballot.

I think Betts (very high WAR and still only 30, etc.), Altuve (2000 H, high WAR, 3 batting titles, etc.), Freeman (2000 H with more to come, MVP, etc.) and Arenado (10 GGs, 5 Platinum Gloves, still a run producer after leaving Coors Field, etc.) are all going to get in. And Sabathia will get in because who else is going to win 250 games?

Justin Verlander has 255 wins.

Brian

He quit the game too early.

He had almost 200 million reasons to do so, but checking out of the game to go home and chill with the family while you're still healthy and productive isn't a great HOF look even if it's a totally rational decision.

Isn't that what Koufax did?

And who knows if he was really or felt healthy.

I don't think it hurts Posey. He is very well liked, he's a catcher, he's in.

I agreed. I think Posey is in. He was also the anchor of all those champion teams.

I would not vote for him, but Posey is pretty much a lock. People like him and that team won 3 WS with nobody else who has a HOF argument on playing for them. He’ll get in even with the very weak career line.

We need more pictures! I think these 4 all have a good chance for the HOF.

Attachment 588577

The two catchers we've been discussing, vintage rookie style.

On the subject of catchers, any chance Salvador Perez gets any consideration?

WS (and series MVP), multiple GG's and AS appearances could hit 300 HRs.

Would be very borderline but I bet he looks good vs Hartnett/Schalk/Ferrell others?

...

He's one of those guys that WAR loves for no discernible reason. Ex: 1982. 7 homers, 72 runs, 413 slugging - and he gets a 4.6 WAR. That's not even a good season let alone nearly All-Star but WAR thinks it is.

Also, he was washed up at 35 and played just 12 full seasons.

If you like Hernandez, put in John Olerud, too.

I agree. Not many guys who played just 6 full seasons are in the Hall.

Olerud....3 GGs..... Hernandez 11.

I know people poo poo GGs when it comes to certain positions but I am of the opinion that unless you played that position in the pros, a person has no right to poo poo a GG at any position.

Olerud was great, as was Will Clark.

If person has not done X, person cannot have negative opinion on X but can have a positive one.

This makes no sense.

You love to cherry-pick the data. In 1982, Hernandez finished in the top 10 in the NL in batting average with .299 and was 3rd in the NL in on base percentage with .397. Schmidt led the majors with .403. Hernandez led the Majors with 19 intentional walks. His OPS was .810 and his OPS+ was 127. He was top 10 in the NL in doubles (33). He won a Gold Glove. This is how he accumulated WAR.

Olerud finished in top 10 in MVP voting once. Hernandez had 3 top 5 finishes including an MVP.

The Gold Glove Award is the award given annually to players judged to have exhibited superior individual fielding performances at each fielding position. Winners are determined from voting by the managers and coaches in each league, many of whom have done X, know the game in and out, and can appreciate the difficulty, challenges, etc. of each position, including 1st base. Yes, a first baseman may not get as many line drives or pop ups like a SS or outfielder respectively but it's still challenging to play that position well in the pros and requires lots of skill and concentration.

A person who was recognized by the league's coaches and managers 11 times during his 16 year career, of which not all 16 years were full seasons for him, for his position play, is a MAJOR accomplishment.

At no point in his career was Keith Hernandez better than Don Mattingly. If Mattingly is not in the HOF there is no argument for Hernandez.

I am all for Donnie B getting in. I am a bigger hall guy though....would put in Dave Parker, Murphy, Lou W, Richie Allen, Flood, Andruw Jones, Kent, etc.

To me, you don't have to be Aaron, Mays, Ruth...if you were one of the best offensively, and/or defensively at your respective position for a considerable stretch, you should be recognized.

This is a silly argument, considering that Keith Hernandez started playing a decade before Mattingly. Are you discounting Hernandez' MVP that he won in 1979, 3 years before Mattingly played for the Yankees?

Yes, Mattingly was more productive than Hernandez during his prime from 1984 through 1989. This was the end of Hernandez' career, as Hernandez retired in 1990 and is 7 years older than Mattingly. Not exactly an apples to apples comparison.

Mattingly only had 4 great years (over 5 WAR).
Hernandez had 5 great years (over 5 WAR).
And Mattingly only had 2 other years with over 3 WAR.
Hernandez had 6 other years with over 3 WAR.

Many people consider Hernandez to be the best fielding first baseman ever. No one (except maybe you?) consider Mattingly to be a better fielder.

I think Utley is underrated. The fact that he never won a gold glove hides the fact that he was one of the best defenders of his time. He led the entire MLB with a 3.5 dWAR in 2008 and his 64.5 WAR/49.3 7-Year Peak WAR/17.3 dWAR is pretty impressive at 2B. He suffers in counting stats because he didn’t even play 2000 games and again, he suffers a bit in the awards because of the GG thing and the fact that the voters picked the wrong Phillie in 2007 for the MVP.

Didn't Palmeiro win a GG in a year he played fewer than 50 games at 1B?

Here is a pretty good analysis for Utley:

https://www.cooperstowncred.com/chas...le%20in%202024.

In 1999 Palmeiro played 128 games at DH and only 28 at 1B and won the Gold Glove at 1B. He had 13 assists as a 1B.

Hernandez had the benefit of health and he did almost nothing with it. His counting stats are either less than Mattingly's or the difference is negligible. But Mattingly was only healthy for 4 seasons. And for those four seasons he was arguably the best player in the entire league, and a proto-Albert Pujols. Hernandez was never that good.

The difference in defense is negligible as well. Everyone knows Mattingly was an all world glove in his own right. He has two less Gold Gloves in 3 less seasons. Not turning anyone's head.

This guy is getting in for sure

Obviously the voters for this award are very informed.

I like how Tabe is arguing that Hernandez wasn't healthy enough, and you are arguing that he was too healthy (and somehow squandered his health).

As you said Mattingly was only healthy for 4 seasons. Is that enough for the HOF? Maybe. But I don't see a way Hernandez doesn't get in first.

What does too healthy mean? When was Keith injured and what were his injuries? Mattingly suffers from the same injury as David Wright and my point about his four seasons was that despite being healthy for only a fraction of Hernandez's entire career, he put up as good or better numbers.

That doesn't make Hernandez sound good but it seems like you think it does.

Mattingly was arguably the best player in baseball, or right at the top, for a period of years. Hernandez, not close. That has to count for something in the comparison.

With all due respect, this too is a silly argument. Dale Murphy was arguably the best player in baseball in the early 80s. Does that mean he should get into the HOF before Billy Williams, or any other player who had a better overall career?

As far as peak goes, you need a very narrow window of time to claim that Mattingly had a better peak. Specifically, you need 4 years. WAR7, which is used in JAWS is more common. Hernandez is 21st for First Baseman with a WAR7 of 41.2 compared to Mattingly who ranks 34th with a 35.7 WAR7. Oh, and Hernandez ranks ahead of Olerud (24th) and Will Clark (31) too.

And let's not forget Hernandez finishing in the top 5 in the MVP voting 3 times, just as Mattingly did.

What was Koufax's WAR 7?

You can just look and see who was better. Mattingly was hitting close to or more than 30 homers and 100 runs driven in while hitting 343, 324, 352 and 327.

When you talk about talent and ability and who was better, it is so obviously Mattingly.

Keith Hernandez could not do those things. What COULD he do that Mattingly couldn't? Stay healthy is just about all you can point to. I don't want to hear about defense. You're talking about a guy who won 9 Gold Gloves of his own.

Koufax' WAR7 was 46, just behind Carl Hubbel, Max Scherzer and Jim Palmer and ahead of Don Drysdale, Mike Mussina, Nolan Ryan and many other HOFers.

I am cognizant of what a Gold Glove is. You wrote the argument that nobody who is not a major leaguer can put a less than very positive value on it, but you or others can (i.e. must, as any other option has been effectively removed) put a high value on it without being a major leaguer yourself. That makes no sense at all, even if one accepts appeal to authority as the height of reason.

The less extreme reasonable argument version, that a 1B GG has a lot of value and should be valued significantly for HOF voting, is really easy to refute with the corrupt or blatantly incompetent Palmeiro choice.

Does getting on base count for anything to you? Does having more than 4 great years mean anything? What about Albert Belle and Dale Murphy--are you going to drone on about how they should get in because they were amazing for 4 years?

There isn't a lot to drone on about because Mattingly is so obviously the superior player.

And he ranks 95th by JAWS overall. I don't think people will ever agree how to value guys who had short but very high peaks.

Koufax ranks ahead of 15 HOF pitchers in JAWS.

Mattingly ranks ahead of 2 HOF 1B in JAWS--Jim Bottomley and George Kelly (arguably the worst member of the HOF).

And to compare Koufax's 5 straight ERA titles and 3 triple crowns to anything accomplished by Mattingly is a stretch at best.

Why do you think Hernandez was so ignored during his election years then? He never received more than 10.8% of the vote in any of his 9 years on the ballot.

Just for comparisons sake, Mattingly was on the ballot for 15 years, peaking at 28.2% and recorded vote totals above Hernandez's max of 10.8% in all but 3 of his seasons on the ballot.

What did everyone else see in Mattingly?

Because WAR didn't exist then, and that's the only statistic in which Hernandez looks anything like a HOFer.