No I’m not suggesting every auction is shill bidding. I’m suggesting prices have been rising over time in a general sense due to it. When a high price is set but the card doesn’t actually sell or is artificially bid up it can still set a benchmark for the next sale. It’s been a topic on the board a lot and I think could be a contributor.

I disagree. Prices fell hard in 2007-2009 and rebounded gradually for several years. It has picked up momentum the last few years and now we are in a full boom. It isn't shilling across this huge swath of issues and cards, it is rebounding prices combined with boredom and restricted competing entertainment spending options. You know what else is way up? Sales of model paints and craft supplies, and pet adoptions. People are bored and have money available.

When I try to determine the current market for a card, I look at completed sale prices. I use VCP, but all of the other primary sources also look at completed sales transactions. I am not sure why you think a listing price impacts the market. I see tons of cards sitting on Ebay for crazy prices. they are not taken into account in sales data.

I agree with this. But what I don’t understand then is why are people screaming for more stimulus and bailouts? Obviously It’s because not everyone has money- many are hurting. I guess my point is that we are in some really fuc&ed up times: some people have no food and others are dropping $20k on mass produced fleer cards of MJ sitting in a psa 8 slab, which was worth maybe $2500 less than a year ago.

My prediction is that many people get slaughtered - flat out crushed. Let’s hope people are not spending money they don’t have, but I fear many are.

I will stay in my sandbox with Cobb, wagner, Ruth and my 524 t206 friends and watch from afar how this all shakes out

I’m not talking about listing price. I’m talking about the sale price. When you shill an auction you inflate the sale price. That sale price is taken to be a reflection of the cards value. When the next person auctions the same card they do so with the previous sale price in mind and price points rise. But it doesn’t mean that the card that set the tone even sold to an actual bidder, yet it has set the tone for future sales.

Cards are just a small part of a gigantic asset bubble. There seems to be unlimited availability to capital. Bitcoin, Real Estate, classic cars, boats, equities, wine/spirits. Startups with questionable futures raising 100's of millions of dollars. Sure there are new collectors, and this surge will be good for the hobby long term, but this is more about money needing a place to land.

This is the net result of the Fed pumping trillions into the economy. Depending on what you feel about monetary policy, MMT, this can either go on forever or it will come crashing down. Things that I think need to be considered; these corrections seem to be getting worse with each event. 2008 was worse the 2000, 2020 was worse (or would have been if not for massive stimulus) then 2008. This recovery is completely debt financed. Unemployment is 2.5x what it was pre pandemic, and would be 15% + without massive stimulus.

I get FOMO and I think the best stuff will always do well, but when this thing pops it is going to be legendary. I just can't believe that the US can run 2T plus annual deficits forever. When the music stops all this new money will evaporate faster then it arrived. Hard to predict top and bottom on these events but they always end the same way.

It’s easier to spot a bubble than know when it will, if it will, pop. We are in war time deficit levels, but with rates where they are, our level is not as precarious as prior periods when borrow rates were higher. The Fed chartered this course since Greenspan and they knew going in it was a one way ticket, if their dual mandate are max employment and price stability. It’s been either the deal with the devil and the wider wealth gap / social instability that comes from it, or a second Great Depression. And it’s because of their mandate, at this point the only way out, to meet their mandate, is currency devaluation, via asset price reflation and currency race to the bottom. Add fiscal stimulus which we have not been able to pass until last year, and you’re throwing fuel to the fire.

So are we in a bubble- I refer you to Shiller’s bubble checklist and you decide... and if you think we are in one and questioning, when will this pop, another question to ponder is will this pop, because that is equally as important of a wealth preservation question as much as whether we are in a bubble.

I’ve also seen this first hand. More than once I’ve had a card listed, gotten several watchers, then raised the price on a hunch and had it sell almost immediately. I don’t totally understand the psychology behind it but it is definitely a thing.

agreed. I had misunderstood your original post...
on this topic, it is very easy to move the market when there so few sales. Some of the most popular high grade cards sell maybe a few times a month.
For example, the 85-86 Star Jordan #117 (2nd year) BGS 9.5 had 6 VCP sales in November/December from various sellers. The prices ranged from $2500-$4500. In January, the 2 most recent sales are for $7500 - both from the same seller (a high-volume EBay seller)

Chatter online suggests this as the new market level.... Seems absurd, will see if additional copies are sold by different sellers at those levels.

Here is Mr. Shiller’s checklist.

--Sharp increases in the price of an asset
--Great public excitement about said increases
--An accompanying media frenzy
--Stories of people earning a lot of money, causing envy among people who aren’t
--Growing interest in the asset class among the general public
--“New era” theories to justify unprecedented price increases
--A decline in lending standards

This fits modern collecting very well but I question the last five as to vintage cards. I see a lot of people who were collectors getting back into it and a lot of long-time collectors getting into it heavily on a FOMO basis, but not members of the general public going nuts. Little media that isn't focused on modern or that damned 1952 T Mantle. Don't know about new era theories; the song remains the same as far as I can tell. The greats are still greats. And if I ask someone to borrow money to buy old baseball cards they still look at me like I'm nuts.

I am not sure about this one. There may be a lot of new collectors, but would not call them the “general public” - its old collectors returning and/or sports fans in some form. It’s not like my grandma is showing interest in o-pee-Chee gretzkys

Very different from the stock market where you see all sorts of random people getting involved who have no business buying stock.

I think in discussing a future crash or bubble, the discussion must be differentiated between (1) Modern and (2) Vintage.

Last time I checked, they're not printing any new T206s or 1933 Goudeys next year.

And the chances that Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner or Babe Ruth suffer season-ending ACLs next year are exactly 0%.

They're not printing new 2017 National Treasure RPA's out of 5, 25, or 99 either.
Mahomes collectors, of which there are many many more than Ruth collectors, have a limited number of rookie cards to go after.
Are there many issues etc from the various companies giving various rookie options for that year? Sure, but hardly a drop in comparison to the demand and thus the trade back and forth between those who have, and those who want. The mass released/non-numbered are worth a few dollars and everyone gets one for fun if they like, the limited stuff has the same significance as small back run T206's or other hard to find vintage.

People who mock modern on here have zero clue.
It's like Cobb is some superhero athlete of yore worth silly collecting money, but Jeter or Trout are just shmoes whose rookie cards are mere cardboard.

Guess what everyone.
Both are made of the same material, and todays offerings are no less worthy than those of the distant past.
YOUR interest may be less, but that hardly equates to the modern product being so endlessly shit-trucked.

The above is not all directed at you troutbum.

I was cruising eBay tonight and was going to post something but saw this thread. ‘89 UD Griffey PSA 10s are edging towards $4,000. That is insane quick growth. Ok, now I’ve calmed down and I’m going back to the OP to read what you guys think about this :)

Look at the 2 PSA 10 Jordan RCs with Goldin. I don't think any card is increasing faster than the Jordan RC.

it's a pretty rare card!

Yea I just noticed the same. I bought a couple a few years back for $200. When they hit $500 it seemed over valued given the population. Pretty much any 80s rookie has seen a similar jump that I have noticed. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I won't be buying much at these prices

Both Jordan fleer psa 10 rookies at $720k each currently at goldin auctions!

i almost bought one for 15k a few years ago...I just couldn't do it!!!

Not sure what's more difficult to wrap my head around: this, or someone in a neighbor thread who just said his cards aren't part of his net worth.

Just going to accept that it's an alternate universe this evening and go from there.

One sold on eBay yesterday for 350k.

Obviously there is big money in this hobby. But I don't think everyone buying this stuff has a bunch of money sitting around. I'd imagine some are borrowing money or taking out a second mortgage to buy big cards with the hope of making profit.

And with Sterling Auction's closing last night...we have confirmation that CARD PRICES CONTINUE TO SKYROCKET!!!

52 mantle @ goldin continue to soar

On that last point, you wouldn't have to ask the bank to borrow money to buy cards. You would walk in, ask for a HELOC, and come out with 200K @ 1.75%. It is that easy for most Americans to scratch up basically free money.

I think most of these crazy prices are being fueled by BIN's....a few years ago all the eBay stores were full of WAY overpriced cards looking for a sucker to bite. Now they are all starting to sell, and the stores can not raise their prices fast enough. It has become a feeding frenzy....

Eh - difference in opinion, possibly.

There will always be a market for iconic vintage. There have been collectors after certain cards for decades, even lifetimes. There will always be a base demand for a Goudey Ruth or Cracker Jack Shoeless Joe - or even a T206 Mordecai Brown or '41 Playball Ted Williams - even during a recession.


Modern? Many of the hot rookies, insert or chase cards in modern hold the attention span of the masses barely long enough until the next patch card to chase or must-have draft pick? People are dropping $100s & $1,000s on patch cards of players who are barely all-stars or who haven't even played yet (Jasson Dominguez).

Not every hot modern card is of Mike Trout, Michael Jordan & Derek Jeter.

In 2010 or 2011, I purchased a raw T-206 green portrait Ty Cobb card for right around $450.00. It is a beater and would probably grade an A or a 1. My card is at least intact.

Almost a decade later, approximately 60% of one (even with several creases) will probably blow past the price I paid for a whole one. I'll be monitoring this auction to see its final hammer price.

With this market, I'll predict $750.00, and set the over-under at this price. What do you all think? Over or under $750.00?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/RARE-1909-1...wAAOSw22FgFgWo

Wow. I cannot get over this. It's literally a cut out, floating head, and seeing how this market is going, it's going to top 750.

Guilty

Yeah it's kind of absurd. I was looking at a '67 Aaron last week for my set, and virtually everything on eBay that is graded has an asking price at least $100 above PSA Auction Prices or VCP. Maybe it will settle down some.

I never knew there was a die cut version of the T206 set. :)

You can win a graded 67 Aaron for $73.44 in the NLBM raffle on the front page.

I've shared Mariners season tickets for years with two old friends that live, eat and breathe baseball. We spend a lot of time talking about the history of baseball for obvious reasons.

Last week I picked up a 1919 W514 Eddie Cicotte and sent them an image. They both know the story, loved the card, and guessed I paid, "somewhere around $20" for it. Then they offered to give me boxes of their old 'worthless cards' from the 1970s/80s.

It's easy to see the bubble from the inside, but these two guys have no idea at all there might be one, nor do they care. Investments in our world aren't cards, bitcoin or Gamestop.

I have had a great time getting back into cards, but also realize I'm part of the problem. I've spent far more on some cards than they're worth because of FOMO.

Now I'm back to buying what 9-16 year old me couldn't imagine owning, and the more creases, marks, stains and crushed corners they have the better. I prefer it being somewhat centered though because I have standards.

Looking forward to continuing to learn more about not just the history of baseball, but the cards the mark the different eras from you all as a collector, not an investor. That's what I love most about the return to cards
Chris



Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

It's gotten so nuts that when you do come across something really good at a low price you do a double-take. Some sellers (I think) have mark-down programs in place where it seems they mark down cards as they don't sell. I stumbled across a card I really wanted the other night, marked down 75% in an eBay store and couldn't hit the BIN quick enough.

Pete, that was some barn-burner with Sterling last night. I had a sizable consignment and figured to break even or maybe make a bit when I sent it in; I was thrilled to nearly double my money. I've spent all day digging out more stuff to sell.

I think I'm just going to forget about ebay all together, unfortunately. I'm going to see if I can make it down to the Philly show when they have it just to deal with some person to person deals. Between the post office still being out of whack, and rising prices on the internet apart of me doesn't want to deal with anything, outside of here, and shows that is.

Hopefully in June Prices won't be quadrupled what they are now, but who knows at this point?

When "Dean's Cards" BINs seem reasonable, you know we're in a period of hobby hyper-inflation.

Love it! So true!

+1

this..., nah....you'll probably have the last laugh;)

When I went through my divorce in the mid 90's, I had to give up my baseball card collection and it helped me survive. Fast forward, I traded way way up in the wife department and baseball collection market as well. Hope that made you laugh a little, but it's true. I hope it happens for you as well;)

mock mock mock 1980's 8 year old investors. mock.

Wow. Hammered at $785.00 - not including shipping or taxes. This sale epitomizes just how hot the market is right now.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/RARE-1909-1...wAAOSw22FgFgWo

That is absolutely insane.
Is there any way that thing is worth 700$ ten years from now?

If It's worth 700 ten years from now, I will personally buy everyone in this thread a beer at wherever the 2031 National is being held :D

In the current Heritage Auction, I bid 130% over the last sales price (after buyer premium and taxes) and was outbid the same day.... there’s tons of time left and not a small $ card too!

Like housing, people are draining the supply and what few gems are out there are being overbid. Don’t know how I can buy another card at these conditions.

When I came back to the hobby in 1998 I began purchasing T206’s again. Thanks to Barry Sloate (hi Barry) I was able to buy large lots from him in the $2-3K range. I decided I’d just collect portraits so I culled, traded, bought and sold until I have about 200 in the 1-5 range, PSA and SGC both common, HOF’s and semi rare backs. Hadn’t inventoried in about 5 years but last night noted recent eBay sales and the collection is up about 30% since last I checked. Is the high end towing my trailer collection. Is it a recent trend with soaring prices or has it been gradual and I haven’t noticed?

This is me as well. Back into cards after a hiatus and collecting what I like. Doesn't have to be graded just a nice looking card. I love baseball and baseball cards. Always have and always will. Just a fun hobby to be involved in if you aren't in it for the money. Money always adds stress to everything.

That's the good news: more stuff will be coming out.

Econ 101, right: the demand raises prices until owners decide to sell and the supply increases enough to achieve equilibrium.

Econ 102: the speculators then bail out, prices drop, and many people who jumped on the FOMO bandwagon are left holding their...cards.

Econ 103: eventually, they capitulate and get out for whatever they can. People who've waited out the run up now buy.

Econ 104: ten years later another bubble inflates.

You know you are getting older when you can recall three or four of these card price cycles. The bizarro world part of this latest one is that the boom is driven by boredom and is taking place despite the economy and the bust likely will result from a return to more normal economic activity.