I am thinking my cards are a bit better than my stocks at this point. The stock market is a freaking yo-yo.

Where's John Rocker when we need him?

If I ever make it to a national, it will probably be in Atlantic City.
It's close enough I could drive, and go for a day.

The other places aren't.

There was also a time in the late 30s when WWII had a death toll of 4,300. If you don't recognize that the toll from the virus is likely to be in the millions before the end of the year then you maybe haven't run the numbers. It appears to be lethal in at least 1% of cases and is likely to infect over 1 billion people.

More to the point, people as a species recover from anything shy of extinction, but my understanding is that WWII actually was bad, recovery notwithstanding.

I am not an expert on health but infecting nearly 15% of the global population seems pretty extreme. Ohio is trying to suggest that 100,000 people have it and those numbers are wildly inflated according to many medical experts so I am hopeful your estimates are too. By the way so far 13 have tested positive so that is a long way from 100,000.

This doesn't exactly look like a give away.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-Topps-...AAAOSwGg5eXaOd

This sale makes me sick because I remember when this card was just breaking a grand.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/11413708634...p2471758.m4704

A BGS 9.5 Jordan brings 21k

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-1987-F...gAAOSwKFNeG9oG

PSA 2 Mantle goes for over 20k

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-...MAAOSwz2VeXZu1

The hobby isn't slowing down. There are so many collectors that aren't worried about the stock market and it doesn't influence their purchase decisions. I have long argued that hard assets are very attractive to many because regardless of price you still own it.

The wrestling card niche that I am involved in saw explosive auction prices on the last batch of cards that were auctioned off this week. Shockingly high prices. They aren't multi thousand dollar cards but some up 400% or more from prior comps.

Not everyone gets killed when the market falls. I had my biggest trade ever last week and I am kicking myself for not making the same trade yesterday that would have been incredible today. If I want to go hard after a card I am in my best position ever financially and there will be no impact from this virus on my bidding.

Cash flow is king so the issue will be employment trends and in my view this is a multi month issue and the country will come roaring back.

Most of the best cards don't come available frequently and so it is doubtful they will be offered during this time and so even if prices were to dip they won't on the best stuff.

I posted a handful of higher profile cards and I don't see any issues with their prices.

David, I agree the good stuff will hold strong. It’s the modern basketball flippers I’m worried about. That Clemente and Mantle were good buys. Thought they’d go slightly higher but still within range.

i was told that the virus can live on hard surfaces, but not cardboard.

FWIW, which admittedly is not much, my eBay sales are still about average.

These modern flippers have bid cards up six fold in many cases. When something goes parabolic and finds itself on the other side it can be viscous on the downside.

I think we need to look at cards in the aggregate and the game is far from over.

My little niche is not indicative of the overall card market but there are zero deals to be had. Every item that has any perceived value is highly contested.

When I see Jordan PSA 9's in some cases going for 10k it is hard to suggest the market is soft.

My largest client has a lot of business in China. It died for two months and has come roaring back overnight. If this is the case as most expect in the US it isn't long enough of a slump to hurt the market.

If someone has to sell during this environment perhaps it is soft but the reality is most of the high profile cards from every genre are in strong hands. I get constant emails asking me to sell cards but the reality is I have no interest. This means higher prices not lower prices. When you control such a large amount of the available inventory it means even higher prices.

The people shouting for lower prices don't own the cards. It is that simple.

The ebayers have begun trying to strike a chord

"Due to the world's condition, I really shouldn't be buying cards, but I'd offer you half of you asking price"

I predict that the market for junk wax is going to take off once their absorptive qualities become better known.

Asset correlation and market prices
 

what We’re seeing is credit deflation in a longer term debt cycle. Each time we had losses, 2001, 2008, 2020, global central banks would reflate is through more debt. At first the debt was mostly at first private, until the great financial crisis (GFC) which was a generational transfer of price to public debt in. Bid to bail out private sector. But each reflation, due to unnaturally low interest rates, market participants understated their cost of capital and led to misuse of capital, ala tech bubble in 2001, real estate in 2008 and the everything bubble in 2019. And each bailout became larger and larger until it is now (hopefully not) seem to be pushing on a string in fed policy.

Coming back to cards, cards appreciated along with every other asset class in this race to zero interest rate policy (zirp). But as we are now in a period of deflation, we will embark on an even bigger globally coordinated stimulus plan so we can one more day, blow bubbles. Which will lead to even higher asset prices, attack of the middle class, further capital moral location and an even larger potential debt crisis down the road.

Back to your point, I do believe the stock market volatility will adversely impact the prices in our hobby. at the same time I believe there will be the mother of all qE that will be unleashed soon, as we never had such a quick shut down on Main Street and Wall Street.

Kudos, sir, for what has to be the most spectacularly asinine analogy of all time! I had to walk away and come back to see if I was reading it correctly.

So what you're saying is, as long as the coronavirus doesn't break that 75 million dead threshold, we're "over-reacting" and the world will be "fine"??

Markets....
 

A couple weeks ago, I saw the market go up.......then it went down a lot........then it kind of went up, it spun down hard the next day and I got scared........ you know.......actually....... I like what Joshua says better......so....what he said! :)

Simple economics control card prices. Supply and demand set the market price. We’ve had a bull market for over a decade. This prosperity time has increased 401k values and disposable income. Investors and collectors have used this disposable income to purchase cards. This strong demand for cards has increased prices.

If we are entering a recession, 401k values will fall. Moreover, some people will lose their jobs. Those that do not have jobs will not have disposable income to spend on cards. Those that do not lose their jobs will save for a rainy day in case they lose their jobs. They will choose not to spend their disposable income on cards.

The demand will significantly decrease. When this occurs, the prices will fall. Those that have large inventories (supply) have two options. One: they can stop selling and try to ride out the storm. However, who knows how long the recession could last. It could take years for a recession to play out and then years for the prices to return to pre-recession levels. Two: they can sell into the weak demand at lower prices.

Basic economic laws disagree with your premise that higher prices will prevail. Good luck.

That doesn't make much sense. At best, you don't sell the cards at the price you want because no one is willing to pay that much. Which means your "prices/values" are imaginary. eBay "museum sellers" have a similar philosophy: "My card is worth $10,000. No one's willing to pay half that much, but it's worth $10,000 because I say so." Market values are identified prices realized, which means buyers and what they are willing to pay most definitely are part of the value equation.

What will all this mean for our Stocks and Bonds?

Brian

Hopefully it will mean

I get the feeling most of this board doesn't actually watch EBAY completed sales or follow active auctions.

Right now there is a Jeter at 140k, a Kobe Bryant insert at 111k, and numerous other cards getting major action.

In a different thread someone asked about a Lebron that is from a year ago and I watched the final action and it went for over 11k.

The stock market and the card market are so much different in the way they trade. I believe we will hear about some high profile hedge funds that were over leveraged going into this and there could be some actual blow ups. Those that own cards unless they are forced to use those assets for liquidity can simple sit on them.

Two months from now or six months from now people will still want to own tangible assets and enjoy collecting. If this hurts the economy for a much longer period of time then yes it will create demand issues. China got back to work in two months and if that is the road map here I just don't see the catastrophic outlook for cards.

There are plenty of people like me that own cards that you can't simply get on EBAY and buy. Unless those same people who want the cards exit the market their interest doesn't wane but it grows. Over time that means higher prices.

I have lived through a number of corrections in the markets since 1998 when I began investing and trading. This is clearly the strangest one because it came out of no where. Comparing this decline to 2008 and 2009 in my view is not a good comparison. We had a two and half year slow down brewing where there were millions of people not paying their mortgages and upside down on home equity values. The stock market is important but so is the real estate market. I live in a pocket of Orlando and all through this so far homes listed are being snapped up at the same prices. This means at the moment that perceived equity is still in place for folks. In 2008 and 2009 that wasn't the case. The stock market collapsed, unemployment trends had been on the rise for quite awhile and homes values were decimated.

I only talk directly to a handful of collectors but none of them are heavy in the stock market and have plenty of resources and cards. I think you will find that there are lots of collectors who have positioned a larger percentage of their net worth in cards and aren't seeing drastic hits to their balance sheets in real time. My largest asset is my 401k and it is in cash.

Time will tell how this plays out and I know I will be checking EBAY daily looking for things to buy and hopefully some supply shows up that I want.

If one thinks this destroys the economy and it takes us years to get back on track then in that scenario it certainly could hurt card values.

So much of card values depends on who is buying and who owns the cards. Using only macro trends to predict these micro trends are impossible.

I have only been active online since 2010 and there has been no shortage of reasons as to why the card market was going to get hit. It has somehow prevailed and third party graders are backed up as far as the eye can see.

I am in finance and I am seeing first hand the damage that is being done to asset prices in real time. Then I flip over to EBAY and look at the nearly 8,000 auctions that PWCC has running right now and I can't see a similar scenario in real time.

What got me more interested in cards and diverting a large percentage of my disposable income in late 2009 and in subsequent years was how quickly I watched money evaporate trading options then. I liked the concept that even if I was wrong it wasn't going to zero.

There are many of us who have been working on our collections for a long time and quite frankly during environments like this it makes me happy I own it even more.

+1

fact check
 

Death rates of people infected with the disease have been running at between 3.6 and 3.7 percent globally (under 2% in the US). IF there are ultimately a million cases in the US that amounts to 20,000 and 37,000 deaths nationally - incredibly tragic for sure, but not the "sky is falling" scenario many are painting.

If "shutting down the country" for 2-3 weeks would be sufficient time to contain the virus, then our leaders need to stop pulling the band aid off slowly and just hit the pause button - it will ultimately hurt a lot less on a lot of levels then allowing all of the state and local responses that while well intentioned are insufficient at resolving a national problem.

That all said - I guess I land somewhere in the middle of what has been stated on the card market. For sure there are simple economics in play - supply and demand. Last time I checked a hard asset is only worth what a willing seller and a willing buyer agree on - not set by the seller or buyer alone. I believe for reasons mentioned above items in our hobby with larger supply will likely be affected negatively by the current environment as there will likely be less buyers and more sellers. I further believe items with limited supply will largely hold their values.

My 2 cents.

How does your analysis change if we have 100-200 million cases in the U.S.?

Who believes a lot of the sales for vintage post war cards in auction since 2014 were fiction ?

I do.

How so? What percentage?

YES OVER-reacting is an understatement. Saturday there were 58 dead, today 70.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

12 deaths in 2 days???? Please you get that on a normal day. This is a virus, yah a little stronger obviously, but it will come and go.

How did we have 80,000 die in the US in 2018, and no one over-react then? Media didn't care, now they do.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/...deaths-winter/

Please read that article dated 2018 and explain to me how 80,000 died in 2018, in the US, and today Corona is at 70, and it's mass panic time, seems odd doesn't it?

Remember when the media had Hillary as a shoo in the White House. They can make you believe a lot, if they say it, it must be true right? I personally have no affiliation to either party so my speak isn't politically related like most are in the media. I can live with Trump or Biden. May the best man for the job win.

Viruses kill people each year.

70 dead since this broke in MID FEBRUARY.....and I think like 60% of these are from that one nursing home, who I'm sorry to say but once you are 80-90 there's a lot of stuff that can kill you.

PLAY BALL!!!!

Bingo. We have a winner!! And if you don't know why the media cares now, in an election year, then I can't help you.

The pic is so great Adam:p. I take my grandsons to Broad Beach when they come out and teach them how to "Laser Beam" out there and have several pics like that myself. :D I love So Cal! No need to go anywhere!

There's something about being able to "Hold" something of value. Like Castle Walls of 100's as I like to say:), 1 OZ Gold Coins, or even baseball cards. I don't really care if the price of gold is down or baseball cards are down because somehow, it feel better than owning stocks?

It's an old school way of living that I learned from mentors that came before me and that I respect. If I had their money, I'd burn mine and it worked for them. Of course I have stocks, mutual funds and alike and just dollar cost average for the tax benefits and the fun of it and have done so for many years. I feel that I am diversified and hold many different assets.

Some like the cars go down in value but I didn't buy them for that. I like to look at them in the garage and be able to relive 1976 & VROOM around when ever I want.:D\ I have the same car I drove in High School, only a Resto-mod with 600HP.:cool: and It makes me feel like a kid again, kinda like when I look at Baseball cards. The wife is pissed because she has to park her cars out front, but what are you gonna do. Biggest mistake I ever made was buying a house with a 2-car garage.

Baseball cards are supposed to be fun. The scammers that have ruined it for me including PSA who are going to get "McMillion$$ed" in due time. Then, it will be fun for me again. Good luck and good health to everyone.

I’m not surprised that the super high end cards that started auction 5-10 days ago are still doing well. The economic impact of this thing is just starting.

Lets see how auctions are doing when the country is is in quarantine, millions of people are laid off , and consumer spending grinds to a halt.

To give some perspective, Aramark has 180k employee’s. They manage food service at facilities. All of these facilities are closed. Thats one company that has no work for its people.

The airlines employee 600k people. Marriott has 130k employees. 15mm people work in restaurants in the US. All of these businesses will be running at 10 percent capacity. Even those of us that won’t face temp layoff and going to be dramatically impacted. It basically will take out everyone in corp americas ability to make their sales plan and bonuses.

Cards like everything else are going to get annihilated.

Two of the four of those are PWCC and their data cannot be trusted. The other two were a one bid and a BIN, which too are not very good examples.

What I do find fun about these discussions is there are a wide range of outcomes that can happen.

Just a few minutes ago you had a hedge fund manager on CNBC who has a personal net worth in excess of a billion dollars said he would go mortgage a house to buy stocks right now and thinks the market will come roaring back later this year. Another guest pushed back and disagrees and thinks the economic effects will longer and deeper.

Time will tell who is right but both are well educated men with lots of experience.

You have been a sky is falling guy for the ten years I have been online.

I have been very bullish on cards and I am quite comfortable with my track record.

Gold and silver have been thought to be a great investment for years. Gold and silver have not moved in price for many years. Up a few dollars, down a few dollars. Baseball cards however have continued to climb. I'll stay with cards. Frank

My words may have been misconstrued, but I've never been a sky is falling kind of person (not that there's anything wrong with people like that). Not in hobbies or life in general. Trading cards for me is a hobby. I am a collector. Not an investor, meaning I don't go into a sale hoping the card goes up in value. Future prices have no impact in my buying.

Given all that's come out in the past couple years (been out there longer, but really coming to light thanks to BODA) regarding illegal shilling and fraudulent grading, why pay (fake) premiums for manufactured (low pop) rarity?

What data cannot be trusted? You mean the sale results?
Because I can confirm as the buyer that one of those sales is the real deal.

Exactly.

Patrick spouts off like he knows what he is talking about. He has been doing it for ten years online.

All the negative energy contributes very little to these forums. Please don't be a hobby justice warrior. This is not about taking a stance on either side. This is a hobby not politics. We are all adults and can make our own decisions. If you are a true collector you could understand that perspective.

Well ya, an 11 year bull run fuelled by QE and debt has made most bulls look good. Let’s see how all assets perform when cash dries up and people start losing their jobs.

Fwiw I think the underlying fundamentals are decent. And that when demand comes back, the recovery will be dramatic. I am in buy mode myself ( not cards, equities). But this summer is going to be brutal and recession is a guaranty. Don’t underestimate how much of consumer spending is debt financed - HELOCS, credit cards. People are soon to find out they are not as rich as they thought.

I bid on seven items last night and lost all of them. People are still going nuts over cards. The only way they will stop is when this starts happening outside:

https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/9...%2Fzombies.jpg

seemingly
 

there are a number of you I would prefer stand many more than 6 feet away from me...……….

Thank goodness I like nice vintage cards so much. If I didn't, I would have much more in the stock market. Whew!

My two major calls were that wrestling cards and specifically the Wrestling All Stars would explode and Mike Tyson cards would too. I bet significantly on this and in both cases good ole Patrick suggested I was crazy.

I agree that a long term run in markets has helped pump up lots of things but the move is far from over longer term in my view. There are loads of people like me in their 40's that will continue to want to own things they like and that remind them of their childhood.

It has been nice to see Gary V speaking so highly of the wrestling cards of late and they have taken another big leg up in many cases. There isn't enough supply in general and certainly not in high grades. I remain optimistic and my finances don't revolve around them at all so I am fine either way.

stock market
 

When the stock market hits zero I am buying everything...Jerry

Goudey77 -

No negative energy. Just facts.

Not being a "hobby justice warrior" lol.

Not taking a stance, on either side.

Nobody is bringing politics into this, smh.

Yes, all adults (I think). We make our own decisions.

I believe, totally just my opinion, "true collectors" are those who collect purely for the fun of the hobby and don't have a dime at stake.

I never bet against you on those cards.

You purchased nearly all of the supply of Wrestling All-Star cards (an obscure, unpopular set at the time) and then spammed the living hell out of them for years on the Collector's Universe forums - even when the majority begged you to stop (even though I defended you at the time). You even said that you intentionally bid on these cards to maintain their values and hype - but if you won the auction intended to pay so it wasn't shilling. It's also a set that was made, literally, in a guy's basement and I don't see how anybody can tell the difference between these and fakes (think Star Basketball). I held PSA at high esteem at the time and even had doubts then - given what's been uncovered lately I am of a string opinion they do not have the resources to accurately grade or authenticate these.

My comment wasn't about if we are overreacting or not, nobody really knows. I question your analogy because:

1) Comparing the beginning of this, or any, world issue to the final result of the worst era in human history is weak, and

2) Anybody who would say something like this:
"WWII - 75 million dead

The World seemed to recover fine from that."

is some kind of F'in' Idiot!!

I'll stand by it. Sorry if I'm not politically correct for you. I know if you say anything that isn't soft-served these past few years you get the stink eye. It was just a comparison to all these people crying the sky is falling, it isn't people.

The world has survived plagues, civil wars, WORLD WARS, terrorism, what have you. This will be in the rearview mirror before long. Don't get your panties in a bunch.

I will let you remember the events how you do and how I do.

The good news for me is it all worked out great.