Markets are changing imo. Not a lot of kids (like we all were) are collecting. There are so many other choices for kids nowadays. My teenage son, who is a pretty good player, has zero interest in my vintage stuff. Or modern for that matter. He knows the players of yesteryear pretty well, as he is a vigorous reader of the books I read as a kid. Many of his peers do not know about George Brett. Or Walter Johnson. They don't collect cards either, and not sure they know much about the history of our sport other than Trout or recent award winners.

They all know about Ruth. A handful know about Cobb. Christy Mathewson who?

Again, most kids do not collect. There are exceptions to the rule of course, but it does make you wonder where the market will be in 20 years.

Good thing those of us who enjoy collecting such cards don’t care what Snapolit on the internet thinks.

Think of the prewar cards with less than 10 known copies you can buy for $750k.

Haven't we been hearing for years and years that kids aren't collecting any more though?

Absolutely.
If true, and it seems like it is, there may not be a market.
I'm still having fun

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My point is that kids collecting doesn't seem to be needed for a market. I am not sure about the notion that only people who collected as kids buy cards as adults.

True

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Guys, forget about the $600K or whatever it got up to in the first auction. It's currently only at $100K with four days left.

This is good to see; shows the hobby is alive and well and inclusive of more than us middle agedand old guys.

Funny that vintage collectors will rip on manufactured scarcity but have no problem with a Lajoie #106.

There is a Brady card in the same auction over 150k already. The holy grail of modern football cards apparently.

https://rover.ebay.com/rover/0/0/0?m...2F401708753101

The Jordan bidder may already have them

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that's a terrible analogy!

Transfer that thought to T206 collecting.

Why?

the 34' goudey lajoie was created by goudey in response to an outpouring of letters from people trying to complete the set but there was no card #106. So those who wrote letters got cards.

How's that anything like a modern card company just deciding to only make a certain # of a background color...to "create" a rare card?

There are numerous vintage cards in the hobby that are manufactured scarcities and sell for big dollars: The William McKinley U.S. Caramel card is a $100,000 card . The Leaf Rocky Graziano boxing card is a mid five figures card. The Bert Cobeau card from the 1923 V145-1 hockey set is a mid five-figure card. What would a Maple Crispette Casey Stengel sell for at auction?

I don't get the outrage over manufactured rarities selling for huge money. Manufactured rarities have been a staple of the hobby nearly forever.

Goudey Lajoie, George C. Miller Andrews, Butter Cream Ruth, U.S. Caramel Lindstrom, etc. etc. were all manufactured rarity ploys by 1930s manufacturers TO SELL MORE PRODUCT.


Certified autographs, game-used inserts, high numbers, SPs, rip cards, variations, color waves, refractors, parallels are all manufactured rarity ploys by modern manufacturers TO SELL MORE PRODUCT.


There is nothing new under the sun.

I suppose its similar but different to me. Short printing a card to avoid too many contest winners plus the fact that in some cases the winners cards were not returned = rarity.

Upper deck making a few cards with a different color background to create a rarity is not the same.

Ill agree to disagree with you.

I collect some modern cards with my son and we enjoy opening packs and it is a lot of fun. The modern hobby actually spends a lot of time and effort to include players from yesteryear in their products, which I actually like and think is overall pretty good for the health of the hobby. Because of this my son has become a big Ken Griffey Jr fan just as I was when I was younger.

The modern hobby is a fun one but it is VERY expensive. Most boxes worth bothering with run $80-120 to start and most of the time the cards you get would not recoup even a small portion of that money. You end up with about 80-100 base cards, 10-15 insert cards that rarely sell for more than a few bucks, and maybe a minor hit or two (jersey cards & sticker-on-card autos are NOT popular as the thing now is limited parallel numbered versions of autographed cards... but only of the handful of super collected players). For example I purchased my son a box of 2018 Gypsy Queen at the National (probably my favorite of the modern retro-style sets up until they stopped doing the mini parallels) and we opened the packs when I got home and he was super excited when he got a pretty limited Ozzie Albies RC #ed to 50 B&W image w/Certified Autograph. Pretty exciting... until we went on ebay to see what they were "going for" and saw that even with a pretty decent hit in our box we barely would pay for the box with that card. Again, we had fun and that is why we did it but it illustrates the point to a degree.

I think this last point is my admittedly-personal problem with the modern hobby... way too much semi-worthless stuff and only a few "real" hits to be had in any given product, IF there even are hits in an entire product line. It feels more like going to the local gas station and buying some scratch-off lottery tickets.

An example of this was the last H&S Auction Lot #1198...
https://hugginsandscott.com/cgi-bin/...l?itemid=34308
I can only imagine the amount of money spent to get that many "hits" and the VAST majority of items in modern products, even the hits are problematic to sell or try to get anything out of.

I am not dogging on modern, I enjoy opening packs with my son and will continue to do so as we are both baseball fans BUT it is easy to see why some get sick of getting burned on so many modern products chasing the impossible cards that actually sell for the crazy prices we see at auction.

Well one difference is the modern manufacturer is creating scarcity to create a speculative secondary market in its product and to create the illusion it's a financially valuable commodity. Neither of which were the goals of the President of the Goudey card company. The old scarcities are rare today because they are scarce, not because someone set out to make them desirable on Ebay.

Let’s not forget Topps purposely creating a short print on 1952 topps high numbers by dumping pallets of the stuff into the ocean :D

This is well stated. Enos Goudey was attempting to get kids to spend extra pennies to try to complete a set. Topps’ primary objective is to get middle aged dudes to drop three and four figures on case breaks trying to win the lottery. There’s a huge difference.

Or, through the design of many variations, they are creating a layered and engaging collecting endeavor— for those who like to chase and assemble sets (i.e., Topps Heritage).

To try and say collecting ad backs or color runs of PreWar is somehow intrinsically superior to doing the same with modern is flat out wrong.

I collect mostly vintage, but I grab new stuff here and there. The NBA doesn't have 150 years of history. It started in the 1940's, and there were only three major sets issued before 1969. What early rare cards is the basketball collector supposed to chase once they have completed the Big 3? For a person with deep pockets, where do you go? The 1970's? Easy to complete. 1980's? If you jumped in early, those aren't that difficult either. These rare inserts are the only truly tough cards out there. The investor here is thinking that extreme rarity combined with a sure thing like Michael Jordan is this generation's T206 Wagner... except that 320,000,000 Americans know who Michael Jordan is, and probably less than 5 million know who Honus Wagner is.

Not my cup of tea, but if someone has the cash and they want to sink that kind of money into the hobby, by all means do it!

Yes but on the other hand those dudes surely have their eyes wide open?

A layered and engaging collecting endeavor? That’s rich.

Yes, modern brands are manufacturing rarity for the sole purpose of creating “a layered and engaging experience” for the collecting purists like yourself who simply value the cards with no regard to value.

Do you honestly believe that?

I’m not even saying it’s better or worse than vintage back runs it color runs. Those are your words. But let’s call it what it is. The marketing objectives of 1930s Goudey and 2019 Topps are very different.

People can collect whatever they want. Years ago I had friends loading up on limited edition Thomas Kincaid paintings. Made them happy. Today they ain't worth diddly squat. Does that make them stupid? No. If they spent their kids college money on them believing it was a good investment, does that make them smart. Uh, no.

I enjoy buying modern cards. Two or three times a year I buy a big ass box of a new release and enjoying going through them. Usually at the card store there are bunch of "kids" (i.e., guys in their 30s) ripping open boxes and flinging cards into a garbage can trying to find one or two special added relic or autograph cards. Don't strike me as "collectors" as the term is used on this board.

When I was a kid collecting Topps I never had trouble "engaging" when there were only base cards, not multiple levels of inserts, parallels, what have you.

Another difference, although this is pure speculation, is that the new rarities are more likely to depreciate in value than the old rarities. There are a zillion different Jordan cards. How meaningful will these green cards be 50 years from now? Not so many Lajoies, although the old cards could take a hit as well once the baby boomers move on.

Well you know as well as I know that the kids of today are nothing like the kids of yesterday and the day before. As a kid ripping packs open the cards had relatively no value at that time it was only the older cards that had any value. We ripped packs to try to complete the set and to collect our favorite team and players.

The lottery mentality started in the late 80s early 90s and now it has been taken to the nth degree just like the kids of today. The hobby is now a hobby for adults for the most part!

I agree 100% with this. Personally, I loved collecting when it was simpler. But in the past year I bought a couple boxes of Topps Heritage, and it was awesome. I thought the cards were beautiful. I didn’t get any “hits” though, and that wasn’t my primary motivation. But my belief is that Topps’ bullseye consumer is not me, the passive collector, but the dudes Steve describes who are breaking cases to try to hit it big. The sponsored case breaks at the National are not a celebration of set building.

There are a lot of neat and affordable products in the $40-50 range that feature several retired players. These sets usually deliver close to a set, an autograph and/or a relic card per, parallels, etc. While base set collecting is clearly dying, I've seen an uptick in player collecting, prospecting, insert set collecting, etc. There are several new ways to collect and that's awesome. I'm also witnessing a lot of diversity in these collectors. Several are STARTING as late teenagers and young professionals. I've personally witnessed an uptick in female buyers and people of color. These folks have an appreciation for the past and could definitely dabble in vintage in the future.

And that's my point. I don't think with due respect to Matt that the point of all the million inserts and parallels is to make collecting more interesting, it's about artificially creating and chasing value. Collecting was plenty interesting with your 598 or whatever card base set.

How many television channels did you have? How about video games? The internet?
Sure, Topps produces way too many different sets (actually they have to in their contract with the MLB), but your childhood was a lot different than the kids growing up today. One set of 600 cards is boring, and a sure way to kill off the collecting vibe.
But they do make sets like Opening Day for just this reason; inexpensive ways for kids to collect. In the past year, I've donated 10,000 cards (sports/nonsports) from the 80s to 2018 to my wife's school kids, and they're thrilled with them. They're from a rural area and probably can't afford them, and it's a good way for me to clean out the clutter from the one or two collections I buy a year.

Sometimes less is more. As for TV, more channels meaning more and more time spent in front of it (and of course the omnipresent devices) is not in my opinion a good thing at all. Kids growing up today are way too tech dependent for the most part. Every day I see groups of them but instead of engaging with each other each and every one of them is staring into their device. It's absurd.

Before we romantacise Mr Goudey, didn't he intentionally omit a card from his set to get kids to keep buying packs?

Also, while there are an abundance of Jordan base cards, there are a few rare ones that not many people know about.
That's why this hobby is so great. Something for everyone.

What’s “rich” is your post claiming a “huge difference,” when all you did was highlight a similarity: companies trying to make cards that will sell. And your beloved Mr. Goudey targeting kids’ 1930’s pennies is somehow supposed to put the cards you like on some pedestal? Your alleged target audience for the two is different, yet the underlying motivation is by your own words a similarity. That said, the children I know who enjoy opening packs would seem to explode your exclusive middle aged men theory. There can be more than one target audience. You even admitted you opened Heritage in just the manner I am referencing.

Your posts above are both presumptuous and reductive; Topps certainly knows that while indeed there are buyers out there looking for an eBay flip, there are also collectors of all ages who do enjoy hunting for myriad variations— knowing full well that the Heritage Throwback semi-star they pulled yet desired for their set won’t be worth a dime down the line. Point being that it is highly presumptuous to claim you know why everyone is buying (for a “Lotto” ticket). The set design in that respect is layered and designed to engage the collector beyond the base cards; much in the same way some video games are layered to engage the player in multiple tasks, for example.

What is the endgame here? You want everyone to collect Gehringer or mid grade t206’s or whatever you collect? Sorry, but people are going to have different tastes no matter how hard some try and slight what they like. And — gasp— some of us will take home an e90-1 Shoeless and a Bryce Harper or Kershaw.

Last time I checked, all the cards in the hobby weren’t pitted against each other in some absurd battle; the collectors of them shouldn’t be either.

Endgame?

I don’t have one. I don’t give two sh*ts what other people collect. In fact, I would MUCH rather the big money go into modern than vintage. I’d rather not compete with the well-heeled fellow who has $600k to spend on a Purple Raspberry Platinum Refractor Jordan.

My argument is that the comparison between the manufactured scarcity of Goudey and 2019 Topps has different underlying drivers. Yes, both efforts are about selling more cards, but one was about driving kids to try complete a set (in vein); the other is about selling the promise of an instantly valuable “hit.” I’m saying this based on factual observations without assigning any value judgement. I’m not criticizing Topps or their consumers.

And yet your precious sensibilities are still offended.

We get it, Matty. You love your Aaron Judges and Gregg Jeffries just as much as your mid-grade centered Mantles. The purity of collecting is heavenly. It warms the heart. You feel like you must be the holy defender of all things modern.

But if you believe that Topps’ manufactured scarcity is only driven by a desire to make set collecting more “layered” and “fun,” you’re believing in a fiction on par with a Rambo sequel.

From Peck & Snyder to Old Judge to ATC to Goudey and Topps/Bowman the common denominator is marketing and money.. Otherwise, why bother? Modern is growing and pre-war is shrinking. Collectors should be hoping that the modern hobby continues to surge.

i am mostly a vintage collector, but I still don't get the stance on here that vintage manufactured rarities were somehow pure and good and honest, while the same thing in the modern hobby is horrible.

Modern collectors know what the deal is in that the chances are extremely slim of hitting a big money chase card. Collectors 80-90 years ago did not realize they were getting scammed into continually buying product in a near futile attempt to complete the set.

Absolutely correct. The 1933 Goudey set is a prime example of a gum manufacturer scamming their customers. At least modern companies give odds!

Oh I agree with you. I think what Goudey did was downright deceitful. At least Topps has the odds of finding hits on their box, much like the odds you see when playing McDonald’s Monopoly or a scratch-off.

The problem with this site is some folks try to make statements and other dudes read into them and assign value judgements to them. I don’t remember anyone arguing that one was good and honest and one was horrible. My personal argument was that they were motivated by different underlying dynamics, and therefore, not directly comparable.

Yeah who said anything favorable about short prints or skip numbering? Different -- not trying to create value -- not superior.

But I still don't see why intentionally making a few green copies of a card makes it so desirable.

As someone who works full-time in the hobby and has collected everything, I've noticed a sense of arrogance among some vintage collectors who often mock and demean the modern side of the hobby. It's particularly troublesome because most "shiny card" collectors are very respectful of vintage. Fortunately, I'm seeing less of this arrogance as the years go on.

Only because NY state forced them to by declaring a card pack to be a lottery.

And many get around the "odds" by having it be the overall odds, or just saying the odds of the non- numbered cards.

No need, That card gave me enough retinal damage that blinders won't help :D



I collect some modern, opening some packs now and then is fun.
I bought some Fleer metal when they came out, but only a few packs, as I thought the cards were just hideously ugly. And I really like a lot of hideously ugly cards....Metal just seemed too ugly to bother with.

You're right. MUCH better to SCAM kids out of their money seeking a card that fraudulently didn't exist than to sell to adults who know full well their odds.

I’ve watched kids in card shops and card shows rip open a pack, flip through the cards, and throw away the entire contents of the pack just because there was no autographed, diamond encrusted, jersey card with MLB logo on it. It appears to me that these hidden inserts have become the entire hobby, and base cards are just pack-filler. I think this difference alone is enough to put the Goudey comparison to rest. One sleezy gum company completely left a card out of a set 85 years ago. No one here is saying that’s ok, but I don’t see how it relates to the current state of modern cards. Those kids bought more packs in efforts to complete their sets, not in search of a 1/1 card that they hoped would pay for college. At worse, they ended up with a duplicate and a fresh piece of gum. The motivations of the collectors were far different, irrespective of the motivation of the card company, which is always money.

I think this Jordan card is particularly annoying to the vintage collector because there doesn’t seem to be anything really special about the card other than rarity. It’s not a rookie, or even an early Jordan card. It’s not from an all-time set. It’s not autographed. It’s not some spectacular image. It’s just a card that a company printed 10 of. That’s it. You can’t blame a collector for imagining all of the amazing cards they could buy with that money, and being stunned that someone would spend it on this rare, if unspectacular Jordan card. I’m sure that vintage guys grumble when an LBJ rookie sells for crazy money, but they will usually conceed that a 1/1 LBJ rookie is a special card. This Jordan just leaves some heads scratching.

Out of 50 or so years worth of pre war cards, are we really going to focus on, and cherry-pick one shitty scam by one gum company and use it as justification for what’s going on with modern cards? Goudey was in the business of selling GUM. Kids bought packs of GUM and got the gum. They were not defrauded. Again, it was a shitty thing to do, but the kids got what they paid for. This comparison really needs to die.