The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>Ah, forget it, I'll save my rant. I will say that this problem affects different generations and different segments of society, differently. So, before any of us make any generalizations or judgments - we should first be thankful that we have the time and resources to express ourselves on this chatboard. Secondly- we should really look at the predicament others are in and not rush to judgment and assume that they necessarily did anything irresponsibly.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Fred, that response made me laugh. I agree with you. Sad, but true. We're just stretched too thin now as a country.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p>Now, about all those irresponsible people that made irresponsible choices... Many of those people had no idea how to handle finances. Those people were desperate beyond any measure. They wanted to have the American dream, a house. This didn't happen over night. The housing market started to escalate and people saw NO end in sight to the rising prices. The lax regulation on loans only invited the ignorant to join the party and achieve the American dream of home ownership before they were completely priced out of the market. DESPERATION - can you say that - DESPERATION.<br />---------------------------<br /><br />Your correct that many people don't know how to handle finances - its unfortunate that personal finance isn't taught in primary education.<br /><br />But my grandfather gave me some very good financial advise. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.<br /><br />Perhaps DESPERATION is a bit of an exaggeration - more like they say others doing it and wanted to get in also? Those that bought homes with ARMs made bad decisions - they weren't ripped off - they made the calculation that their home prices would keep going up and would refinance later. <br /><br />I agree, and previously stated, that those that are elderly and refinanced their primary residences into ARM - that a vast majority were misled and lied to - they didn't know what they were getting into and I agree that the lack of common sense regulation made it very easy for scumbags to rip these people off. And I would support the government helping those over 60 that only own a primary residence and have lived there for more than 10 years - I would suggest that the government intervene and set the interest rates on those mortgages to the rate for a fixed mortgage. <br /><br />Finally, I would say that personally I greatly value our freedom - and freedom means that your allowed to do stupid things sometimes...and along with that comes the responsibility for our stupid actions.....we shouldn't be so quick to think that government should take care of everything for everyone. I've lived in places where everything you do is registered, monitored, and the bureaucrat decides who gets what and what you can do....I wouldn't want to have the USA be less free.<br /><br />

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>My brief views on these matters:<br /><br />1)Values of High End Graded Vintage Cards--may dip slightly but likely to perform much better than low-mid end cards. Why would Chad, Don, Don and Greg cut back their purchases of vintage cards--if anything they would accelerate--I would certainly accelerate my purchases if values went down.<br /><br />2)Oil-oil markets are global and legitimately tight. Its all we can do to grow global supply by 0.5% in an environment of $100 bbl. Of course the ridiculous decisions of the US Govt. to restrict drilling in ANWR, western states and offshore our own coast do not help. Bottom line-$100 bbl and oil and $4 gas is here to stay.<br /><br />3)Kerry--ugh. I was shocked as many voted for him as they did. The most liberal senator in the country until Barack stands for higher taxes, higher govt spending and a weak US military.<br /><br />4)Financial crisis-real. My company just had a large layoff and is going through tough times. However, I don't think its the end of the world and we will pull through.<br /><br />5)McCain beats Obama in the fall.<br /><br />6)Bruce actually has interesting things to say unlike the person(s) who attacks him.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Solomon Cramer</b><p>"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- More home owners than ever are losing the battle to make their monthly mortgage payments. <br /><br />Over 900,000 households are in the foreclosure process, up 71% from a year ago, according to a survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association. That figure represents 2.04% of all mortgages, the highest rate in the report's quarterly, 36-year history. <br /><br />Another 381,000 households, or 0.83% of borrowers, saw the foreclosure process started during the quarter, which was also a record. <br /><br />Additionally, the number of mortgage borrowers who were over 30 days late on a payment in the last three months of 2007 is at its highest rate since 1985."<br /><br />full article: <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/06/real_estate/defaults_continue_climb/index.htm?postversion=2008030614" target="_new" rel="nofollow"><a href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/06/real_estate/defaults_continue_climb/index.htm?postversion=2008030614</a" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/06/real_estate/defaults_continue_climb/index.htm?postversion=2008030614</a</a>><br /><br />---------------------------------------------<br /><br />Just showing that the number of forclosures are a LOT more than 0.1%.<br /><br />As others have mentioned, we're a long way from the '30s Depression or even the '70s recession. Inflation is moderate at worst, interest rates are very low, and we are near full employment. This could get ugly, but we're not there yet.<br /><br />At least one positive thing about the dollar being hammered is it makes our exports more competitive and creates more protection against imports. Still, I think one of our country's biggest problems is allowing ourselves to be the world's whipping boy by our "friends" in the import/export business. Japan, Korea, etc. all sell a large percentage of their cars in our market, but we cannot export our products without excessive taxes? We don't need free trade, we need fair trade. I'm at least happy that the Japanese are only getting 60 cents on the dollar for the cars they export to the US.<br />

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>David Atkatz</b><p>"Our economy had been "perking" along just fine, until this so-called "Sub-Prime" problem surfaced.<br />Then the "media" jumped on it and did their usual "doom-n-gloom" rabble-rousing. The actual num-<br />bers of the homes in possible foreclosure situations are approx. 1/1000....that translates to 0.1%.<br />And, the media is crying "woe are we". Let's get serious, people, the media and the oppsition party<br />will always "TALK DOWN" the economy, irregardless of its status, during a national election year."<br /><br />Yep. Things are just hunky-dorey after eight years of Dubya. Tax cuts for the well-to-do <i>and</i> a two trillion dollar war. Four dollar-a gallon gas.<br /><br />It's jest those goldarn dem-o-crats and the lib-er-al media a'stirrin' up trouble.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>David Atkatz</b><p>"5)McCain beats Obama in the fall."<br /><br />Wanna bet?

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I'll take Obama and the 2 1/2 points.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>Ok, so Hillary is out of the race, is that correct? You heard it first on N54. <br /><br />Any predictions? Out of desperation do you think there may be one last skeleton that can be pulled out of the closet on Obama or Hillary? I'm just waiting for the bombshell to drop. Any predictions on what that skeleton might be?

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>David, I'd be honestly shocked if Obama beats McCain in the fall. I don't think you are appreciating the latent racism that exists in this country. Also, Obama is only now being probed by the media and they've got a long way to go. His handling of the Reverend Wright situation yesterday was not very promising.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Hillary can still win the nomination, but she has some catching up to do.<br /><br />Edited to add Obama has certainly had a bad couple of weeks but I think he is exciting the youth voters, a group that almost never participates in the election. He is going to surprise everyone and win the presidency.<br /><br />McCain is a decent man and a moderate Republican, but does he have any qualifications? After eight years of a president who couldn't buy a clue, I think this time around someone with fresh ideas, or who at least gives the impression that he may have fresh ones, just might take it.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Brian Weisner</b><p><br /> Hi Guys,<br /> I suggest you read....<br /><br /> Democracy in America<br /><br /> By <br /> Alexis de Tocqueville.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> Then we can have a discussion... on a "non Vintage card Board"...<br /><br /><br /> Be well Brian<br /><br /><br /><br />

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Barry, ironic that you would question whether McCain has any qualifications to lead the country in an election that features Obama! <br /><br />And Hilary cannot catch up in the delegate race. She may take the nomination from Obama via the superdelegates but hijacking the nomination will probably enrage Obama's followers -- the black vote -- to such an extreme that they will sit out the November election, thus handing it to McCain. Only chance to prevent this will be if Obama takes the VP slot on a Hilary ticket which seems incredibly unlikely. In either scenario, incredibly, I think the Dems are in trouble. Almost hard to imagine how they could screw this one up after the past 8 years.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Ted Zanidakis</b><p>THANKS for making my case and reinforcing my 0.6% figure on foreclosures. You stated......<br /><br />"Over 900,000 households are in the foreclosure process, up 71% from a year ago, according to<br /> a survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association. That figure represents 2.04% of all mortgages,"<br /><br />The latest homeowner's statistics indicate there are approx. 150,000,000 households with mort-<br />gages in this country. Therefore.......<br /><br />900,000/150,000,000 = 0.6 %<br /><br />The mistake you made was to accept CNN's math (2% figure). Most everybody knows that the<br /> majority in the "media" are mathematically challenged.<br /><br />TED Z

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jeff- you know what: no presidential candidate has the experience of running the country before they are elected. Bush still doesn't, and he's been around for seven years. Obama, or anyone for that matter, will learn on the job. What did Kennedy know? How about Ronald Reagan? Obama is smart and he'll be a quick learner.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Solomon Cramer</b><p>Where is your 150M number coming from? I certainly don't question that CNN could make mistakes. But the simpliest math I can see:<br /><br />300 million people in the US<br /><br />195 million of those people are over the age of 25 (<a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ACSSAFFFacts?_submenuId=factsheet_1&_sse=on" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ACSSAFFFacts?_submenuId=factsheet_1&_sse=on</a>)<br /><br />I would say that you're not going to have that many sub-25 year olds owning a house. <br /><br />Now, out of every single person over 25 in this country - you believe there are 150 million households with mortgages? Even if only half of those people were married and living together (50 million couples and 100 million singles) - that would indicate every single household has a mortgage? No renters, no one living in old age homes, etc. etc. It just doesn't add up.<br /><br />Here is the housing information from the same website:<br /> <br /> <br />Housing Characteristics - show more &gt;&gt; Estimate <br />Total housing units 126,311,823 <br />Occupied housing units 111,617,402 <br />Owner-occupied housing units 75,086,485 <br />Renter-occupied housing units 36,530,917 <br />Vacant housing units 14,694,421 <br /><br />Owner-occupied homes 75,086,485 <br />Median value (dollars) 185,200 <br />Median of selected monthly owner costs<br />With a mortgage (dollars) 1,402 <br />Not mortgaged (dollars) 399 <br /><br /><br />Best I can read this, in 2006 there were 75 million owner occupied homes, which would be at most 75 million mortgages if everyone owed something on their houese.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Barry, that's true to some extent; however, Reagan had a lot of experience of running a large government, unlike Obama. While I appreciate Obama's position as a uniter and not a divider -- and in running a race-free candidacy -- I was somewhat stunned to listen to that BS last night in which he claimed that he was clueless about the positions of his 20-year minister who married him and baptized his kids and until yesterday was a part of his campaign staff. He's going to have to do better than that if he wants to capture some of the moderates that are necessary for a win in November.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>James Feagin</b><p>How do you think this recession/impending depression going to affect the auction house?

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>It's irrelevant whether it's 2%, .6%, .1%, whatever. The point is, it's happening to more and more hard-working people. Again, I challenge you to tell them to their face that it's all their fault.<br /><br />What's more is the number of hard-working people who are working two jobs just to pay that mortgage. Something just isn't right and it is certainly not because they're a bunch of illiterate slobs who can't balance their checkbooks. We can start with this Administration and their friends in high finance, banking and lending- and work our way down (or up, as it were). You can even blame the past admin. if you'd like.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Andy fischer</b><p>[IMG]<img src="http://i140.photobucket.com/albums/r9/bigfische/m3chart.jpg">[/IMG]<br /><br />Inflation is NOT in check as some have stated earlier. If you dont know what this is, it is the M3 money chart that measures all of the US dollars in circulation, be it cash, coin, 401k, money market, checking accounts, bonds, or whatever else. Oh, and by the way, our government decided to stop producing this information after 2006, i wonder why that could possibly be, maybe so the American public will not notice how much money the Fed has been printing year after year?<br /><br />Inflation is not rising prices, inflation is the, well, inflation of the money supply. Rising prices is the symptom that lags true inflation.<br /><br />The symptoms will be getting exponentially worse as foreign investors in the dollar decide to dump the sinking greenback into everyday circulation. This will cause severly higher prices because of the sharp rise in supply and the dramatic fall in demand.<br /><br />Hold onto that silver, gold, and plat.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Ted Zanidakis</b><p>For starters, let us take your number of......"Owner-occupied housing units 75,086,485 "......<br /> These are primary residences; and, when you include 2nd mortgages (Equity Loans) on many of<br />these homes, and take into account secondary homes (financed by these homeowners....beach<br /> houses, condos, etc.), a number as large as 150 MILLION active mortgages in this country at any<br /> given time is not unusual. <br />And, especially in this past 5 years when the housing market was "booming".<br /><br />Don't misconstrue me,I am not trying to argue with you. But, these are numbers I have garnered<br /> from my Wells Fargo Home Mortgage representative. I trust his expertise more than any "media"<br /> reporting. Fortunately, Wells Fargo has been one of the better mortgage lending firms to deal with<br /> over the years. We've had them for our two homes and two Equity loans and I can tell you that<br /> they conduct their lending practices on a very high level.<br /><br />Regards, <br /><br />TED Z

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>boxingcardman</b><p>"I think I even shed a few tears, could not believe the US people actually voted this guy in a second time - SHOCKED!!!<br /><br />steve"<br /><br />Anyone still for handing the keys to the Social Security car to the drunk teenagers driving Wall Street? If so, please line up for your urine test. I want what you're smoking. <br /><br />At last, someone pointed out that we here should hoard our oil in the ground and use up the rest of the world's supply. Why waste our resources?<br /><br />The war is the 800# gorilla on our economy. We can't do squat at the Federal level when we're dumping $12 billion a week down a rathole. We need to crap or get off the pot, so to speak: admit that the war is an oil grab and move the damned Iraqis out of the oil fields and take what we need or just leave. Staying the course and bleeding to death for nothing is stupid. <br /><br />Oh, right, cards. I am cutting my discretionary spending way back but cards are the last things to go. I enjoy them too much. <br /><br />As far as real estate goes, it is very regionalized and the impact will likewise be regionalized. In Lancaster, a boomtown 75 miles from LA, prices are in a freefall as foreclosures sweep across the tracts; in Beverly Hills, not. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>rob</b><p>Can you imagine where many people would be if Bush had his way and let people manage their own social security nest egg? I think we have seen the carnage, or at least are beginning to see, of the housing market, but people would be doubly screwed if they flushed their social security away as well...Rob

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Solomon Cramer</b><p>I agree, I have two mortgages (and two others cross collatoralized) on my own house. However, assuming the 900,000 figure is correct (I certainly haven't researched that number), it's refering to households as indicated, not actual mortgages. <br /><br />Irregardless, on the original question. I can't imagine a market that is more fragile than the high end card market. If a few of the major players got into financial trouble...more likely in a down market of course...and no one took their place, I could see a 30-50% drop on a lot of items. On any given item/set, at a high price, how many buyers out there are really pushing up the prices? I think the market will be dictated by whether a few whales are harpooned...or even if a few new ones come in (pulling their funds & interest out of other areas).

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Steve</b><p>Can you imagine where they would be if they did not buy more house then they could afford?<br /><br /><br />I wish I lived on the hill overlooking the Hudson too, I chose to buy what I could afford.<br /><br />I also chose a fixed rate mortgage and shied away from interest only 2nd loans.<br /><br /><br />But then again I have no problem bailing out those that chose to live on the hill <br />so they could look down on me.<br /><br /><br />Steve

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Intrade has Obama a 60/40 favorite still but the latest Rasmussen poll has McCain up on Clinton and Obama by 5-6 points each....and the dems are ripping each other apart. I won't bet but I like McCain's chances.<br /><br />And I do think Social Security should be privatized...people need to take responsibility for their own financial future and I don't need the Government taxing me for a system I have no use for.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>I welcome a huge drop in vintage prices! I have no idea what my collection is worth in dollars but I do know that I get a lot of enjoyment from the cardboard so I can give a rats ass if the "so called" value of my collection decreases. Buy low and enjoy the ride.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Rawn Hill</b><p>Wonks.....you need your own show.A great grasp on reality. Glad this is only a hobby for me,

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>David Atkatz</b><p>"the latest Rasmussen poll has McCain up on Clinton and Obama by 5-6 points each....and the dems are ripping each other apart. I won't bet but I like McCain's chances."<br /><br />Well, come November, and the economy is <i>really</i> in the toilet, when everybody's spent their 600 buck windfall and it hasn't helped a bit, when gas is more than $4 a gallon, and there are 4500 dead GIs in Iraq with no end in sight (and McCain is <i>still</i> talking about staying 100 years, and...<br /><br />We'll see how you like McCain's chances then.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Ted Zanidakis</b><p>The number I heard was approx. 1 Million (close enough to your 0.9 Million). And, my understanding is that it was a compilation<br /> of all mortgages (in some cases 1st & others, 2nd) that were in trouble. Considering that Equity Loans in most cases have Adjust-<br />able rates, that makes sense to me. In fact, I think we can say the majority of these Million troubled ones are all Adjustable's.<br /><br />I fully agree with your......"Irregardless, on the original question. I can't imagine a market that is more fragile than the high end<br /> card market."<br />For the most part, I don't collect graded cards at any level. Therefore, if BB card values begin to drop it wont really concern me.<br /> I have never been into this as an investment......just an avid vintage set collector that enjoys the hobby for the sheer love of<br /> Base Ball.<br /><br />TED Z

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>boxingcardman</b><p>......just an avid vintage set collector that enjoys the hobby for the sheer love of<br />Base Ball.<br /><br><br>Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>David,<br /><br />I think at the end of the day the swing voters will make their decision on two factors--1)The economy which may be improving or may be in the doldrums and 2)Who is best suited to be commander in chief--on this it is no contest--Obama cannot hold a candle to McCain.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>Ted,<br /><br />That's what this should be all about. Collecting this stuff for the love of the game and the history behind the game. I don't like the investment part of this because all it does is drive up the prices on people that just want to collect this for fun. Nothings immune these days. They took our hobby a couple of decades ago and began the investment portfolios. I'm still laughing at the people that have piles of Kal Daniels 1986 Donruss rookie cards. Kal who? That's right, Kal who...

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>DD</b><p>The real question is how did Wonka photoshop tobeecat's face onto a 1970's talk show hosts body? Is that Jim Narz, or Geoff Edwards under his head?

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Ted Zanidakis</b><p>I'll never forget the disappointed face on a 12 year old kid at a BB card Show about 10 years ago, when he came up to a dealer<br /> with his 1986 Jose Canseco rookie card and thought he could sell it for $20. Was laughed at by the dealer, who offered him $2.-<br /> for it. But, the kid replied "it's Mint and the book value is....." <br /><br />TED Z

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>CoreyRS,hanus</b><p>"And I do think Social Security should be privatized...people need to take responsibility for their own financial future and I don't need the Government taxing me for a system I have no use for."<br /><br />That statement used to reflect precisely my sentiments, and to some degree still does. But if you do privatize social security, what will inevitably happen is that a number of people will blow it. They will end up losing all or most of their investments and society will then face the choice of letting them rot in their old age or have Joe taxpayer bail them out. Both scenarios seem quite unappealing.<br /><br />The middle ground I have come to support is some system of letting people forgo the option of collecting social security provided they invest the taxes they would otherwise pay into social security in government-approved investments. The greatest impediment to the implementation of such a system is the fact that to a large degree social security is fiction. Think of it for a minute. As the baby boomers age and become eligible to collect social security, there simply will not be enough people paying into the system to support those taking from it without either a staggering tax increase or a reduction in benefits, or some combination of the two. Should there be a reduction in benefits, IMO the more likely of two options to be implemented, there will probably be a means test to determine how much a person receives. The more well-off the person, the less he/she will receive. So that is why I say social security is a fiction. Government can't afford to let people privately invest their social security taxes because if they did then those people would end up getting their fair share of the proceeds of their social security taxes, regardless how well-off they are. And that is something the system I fear simply will not be able to afford to let them do.<br /><br />

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>painthistorian</b><p>-Hillary Rodham Clinton-both she and Bill have alleged ties to the Rockefellers according to articles you can find in Google searches , this elite family who just love to be "generous" and have many "historical contributions" while in reality have fielded a different agenda all along. <br /><br />Hillary has done little for the middle class and aged here in NY, I know, my parents suffered terribly and my dad could not get proper medical care(he was forced by his insurance company to leave hospital and go to rehab) and he died the next day due to negligence...and of course higher taxes, less educational services by allowing schools to use students sports and class cirriculums as first line budget cuts unless we agree to raise our property taxes instead of getting rid of incompetant personnel and waste.....and who remembers Whitewater?<br /><br />-Barack Hussein Obama- what do we know about this smooth talking, well educated man except his close advisor is slightly to the right of Farrakhan...an a huge group of young people believe in him because he is the best looking!<br /><br />-John McCain-former friend of Charles Keating and one of the Keating 5, remember the Lincoln Savings In Loan disaster that cost tax payers 3.4 billion?<br /><br />These were the best choices for the party systems to offer us as those that will change our futures...we need someone that cannot be bought, lobbyized, has ethics and brains like Gates or Buffett...and hopefully will not call an escort service that will make a 22 year old an instant millionaire because society loves to make TMZ types celebrities...what has society taught us? We really do not have great choices..again.<br /><br />

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Josh</b><p>I see a lot of mention about homes around the 500k range? That number is not even close in my neck of the woods. You can't even get a nice home for less than 1.2 million and that barely has a yard...<br /><br />Santa Barbara

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>Josh,<br /><br />Even with the ridiculously stupid financing arrangements made by some brokers, houses in the million dollar range were out of the reach of people that ad no real financial means to afford any kind of house. People that qualified for million dollar homes would have at least been able to afford a half million dollar home without the creative stupidity that people were calling financing.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Alan</b><p>As Leon will soon say, "OK guys, Let's get back talking about cards... Best Regards" <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14><img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14><img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14>

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Dave Hornish</b><p>I have to say there is a lot to both agree and disagree with here but I can vouch for Wells Fargo, at least from a customer service standpoint. Everyone I have ever dealt with there has been top notch.<br /><br />And now, back to the fracas!

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p>Can you imagine where many people would be if Bush had his way and let people manage their own social security nest egg? I think we have seen the carnage, or at least are beginning to see, of the housing market, but people would be doubly screwed if they flushed their social security away as well...Rob<br />------------------------------------<br /><br />We'd see the same thing take place as a previous poster mentioned.<br /><br />What most people don't realize though is that their social security money has largely been flushed away. Legislative changes many years ago means that it is a pay as you go system. So all the years when the government brought in more money than it spent on social security, the excess isn't sitting somewhere earning interest. It was spent on the military, social programs, interest payments, etc. It is unfortunately gone.<br /><br />So perhaps leaving Americans to their own choices wouldn't be such a bad idea, because in essence the American government has lost all the money!! Even if we had a subprime housing like result - it would mean that a minority would have made bad choices and the majority would have made decent choices. By leaving it to weak politicians its all gone <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Simple math and demographics will make is obvious to anyone that social security as we know it for the past generation cannot exist for more than another 15-20 years. We should start telling people this now, so that they can plan appropriately (or not). We need to turn this back into a safety net program. No one wants to see 80 year old women begging for rent money. Make it a basic low income protection program for the elderly. Personally I believe that by the time I retire my social security check will be my pizza money for the month <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Its well past the time that we address the unsustainability of social security, Medicare/Medicaid, and our disability programs. Its beyond irresponsible that our politicians continue to tell people they will receive "whats been promised" - stop promising what we all know can't be delivered and tell people the truth.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>Seriously...anyone who thinks everything is hunky-dory needs to get their freaking heads checked. If you cannot comprehend this, please let me know.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jim Dale</b><p>Someone said above that people thought things were "Rosie" and now "Hunky Dory"<br /><br />I don't get those who think the sky is falling believe its equal to a depression. <br /><br />Both are extremes and neither is true. We have very low unemployment, very low interest rates, very low inflation and two really ugly things in high energy costs and a bad debt problem on residential properties. That hardly makes for a depression.<br /><br />Claiming those who think things are "hunky dory" need to have their heads examed...line up right behind those who think its a depression.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Jim, I think you're correct. I believe that the stock market is going to get creamed big time, along with the continuing deterioration in real estate. When an 85 year old investment bank goes kaput -- just two years after being labeled by Wall Street as the best investment bank -- very bad things are on the way. All that being said, things could be a lot worse.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Tom Boblitt</b><p>But anyone who believes even the most radical change in our government (Bush to Obama) will elicit some type of MAJOR change in the market forces that are out there has to be way off base. Bush is from Texas, yeah right, oil is 105-110 a barrel and climbing. That's ALL Bush's fault and Obama being swore in next January, gas will be $2.00 a gallon? Not likely.....was in China LAST March getting our daughter and they have no rush hour there. There's ALWAYS 24 rush hours in Guangzhou. Constant movement and just a small fraction of the country has automobiles. That fraction's growing along with India and their $2000 Tata car. These forces are moving rapidly. Don't expect $75 oil anytime down the road. Obama, Hillary, McCain, Nader, McKinney, no one will change that.<br /><br />The commentary about whittling 350+ million people down to these three (main) candidates is spot on. Unfortunately, with all the partisanship on both sides of the aisles, the best and brightest seem to be stepping back into the shadows. Maybe in 2012? 2016? 2020? <br />

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Anonymous</b><p>Boo-friggidey-hoo. About time those a-holes started to learn that Master of the Universe is a bad cartoon and having an MBA doesn't entitle you to a seven-figure income. Plus, it will be easier to get into good restaurants...<br><br>Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>CoreyRS.hanus</b><p>I put much of the blame on the media for the paucity of qualified candidates to choose from. After all, how many of us don't have a skeleton in our closet. Yet, regardless how irrelevant that skeleton might be to a person's qualifications to be a public leader, if discovered (and how cannot it not be given that everybody in the media and opposing political camp will be looking for it) the media will blow it up into something grossly disproportionate to what it is. The person then will, in addition to being disqualifed from running, also be publicly lambasted and embarrassed. I for one would in a heartbeat rather see as President someone truly qualified to deal with the complex issues of our society -- economic, foreign policy, social, environmental, etc.) -- even though he/she has a few warts in his/her past, rather than someone squeaky clean who other than that has little to qualify him/her for the job.<br /><br />In fact, to go one further, I would argue that in regard to certain aspects of the job, the more of an a-hole a person is, the more effectively he/she will be able to deal with the many a-holes he/she will come into contact with. Take foreign policy for example, who would you rather have deal with the leaders of countries where rule is predicated on oppression and thuggery (which happens to comprise most of the world), Mr. Squeaky Clean or Mr. A-Hole?

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Ted Zanidakis</b><p>Gee guys, there seems to be a lot of "gloom-n-doom" posts here.....you guys are watching too much ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC, & PBS....TV.<br /><br />I tend to be OPTIMISTIC, and I do not share the same view as a lot of you. In the past 35 years we have endured many short-lived<br /> "downturns" in the economy, they seem to re-occur every 7-10 year cycles....and, invariably follow an "up-side" in the economy (it's<br /> really a roller-coaster ride)......<br /><br />1973......1st Oil crises (long gas lines....Mid-East turmoil)<br /><br />1980......Carter "stagflation" (20% inflation, 16% interest rates, 10% unemployment)<br /><br />1990......Savings & Loan crises<br /><br />2000......Mild recession<br /><br />2001......9/11 terrorism causes severe downturn (Stock Market drops 2800 pts.)<br /><br />2008......"Sub-prime" crises<br /><br />Let's stop being "myopic" about the current situation and look at a "macro-perspective" on life in this great country....the economy will<br /> recover and most likely, sooner than most of you expect it.<br /><br />Most of all.....stop being so PESSIMISTIC.<br /><br />Have a HAPPY ST. PATRICK's Day.....and, let's get back to TALKING BASE BALL....cards.<br /><br /><br />T-Rex TED<br /><br />

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Adam, if you knew how many of them make $5 mil a year and DON'T have MBAs, you'd barf.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>PC</b><p>*<br /><br />

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>PC, thank you for explaining that better than I could.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jerry Hrechka</b><p> This thread has been an interesting read. I'm a firm believer in personal responsibility. I bought my house in 1986 with a 25 year mortage and paid it off in 2004. So no rent or mortage payment (Just the government extortion called Real Estate Taxes). I have 2 cars (2001 Dodge Durango & 2002 Dodge Neon) - both paid off. So in 2004 I decided to retire, stayed home for 6 months and went nuts. Decided to get a part time job at a store 2 blocks from my house (Walk to work). In a few years I'll be able to tap into my 401K. My CC debt is a few hundred $$$.<br /> I have no sympathy for people that were financially irresponsible and now are facing financial ruin. I firmly believe that there should be no government bailout. They spent beyond their means and should face the consequences.<br /> So far I haven't seen a change in people's buying - They still spend the same amounts on alcohol & Lotto Tickets. If they chose to waste their money in this way, I certainly do not want my tax $$$ bailing them out. <br /> As for me I'll continue buying cards with my $200.00 per month collecting budget. From what I've seen it's a buyers market right now. I just bought a PSA4 G-Men & Heroes of The Law card for $1.34.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Bob</b><p>If the Democrats had any sense they would have nominated a White male governor with no Senatorial background to chip at and walked in to the White House in a landslide. An able, efficient and popular governor like Brad Henry of Oklahoma would have been a Godsend and helped drive out the weasels and rats who have been in power the last 7 years. Alas, we are stuck with the lesser of two evils for a nominee for the party and praying that Americans remember which party has been in office the last 7 years in which everything has unraveled. Personally I like McCain but would never vote for him because too much of the infrastructure of the past 7 years would remain intact in Washington. <br />We can spend billions and billions overseas in a useless and misguided war but not a dime to help the poor, underprivileged, hungry and sick in our own country. Environmental policy is a rudderless ship and an afterthought, methamphetamine is destroying an entire generation, the economy is a mess, we geniflec at the altar of the oil companies and will never develop a truly viable alternative energy source for our automobiles, and on and on and on.<br />I've lived most of my life, I just worry about the lives of my children and grandchildren.<br />P.S. Another state legislature has passed a bill authorizing the posession of handguns on college campuses throughout the State. Where does the madness end?<br />Thanks for allowing me the rant.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>dennis</b><p>"We can spend billions and billions overseas in a useless and misguided war but not a dime to help the poor, underprivileged, hungry and sick in our own country." well said! and let's not forget our old and out-of-work.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>Bob- I hope that when you are talking about helping the poor you are talking about teaching them how to get out of poverty. The only thing I would "give" them is an education and knowlege of how to get out of the shape they are in. The education would only be free as long as they abided by easy rules (like actually going to school). This whole $600 tax credit rebate is idiotic. The smart people don't really need it and the others will buy either 600 more lotto tickets or 125 more packs of cigarettes. What a freakin' waste...regards

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jim Dale</b><p>""We can spend billions and billions overseas in a useless and misguided war but not a dime to help the poor, underprivileged, hungry and sick in our own country." well said! and let's not forget our old and out-of-work."<br /><br />Wow...like we don't spend $800 billion a year on health care services in this nation at tax payer expense, $608 billon on social security, $324 billion on unemployment and welfare, <br /><br />And someone really thinks we don't spend a "DIME" to help the poor, underpriviledged, hungry or sick...My God man what is a "DIME" to you if we're spending 1.7 TRILLION dang dollars on it.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Solomon Cramer</b><p>If you're reading this board, and have an interest/collection of vintage pre-war cards, you're probably not going to be significantly affected by the $600 refund. If you have the money to buy, or frankly any collection of prewar cards, I really hope you're not behind on your mortgage!!<br /><br />Getting back to the whole "depression" talk, what is the #1 reason people feel they are forced to sell their collections? It's when they're short on money. And the two primary reasons for that - #1 loss of job and #2 unexpected expense. The unanticipated expenses come and go in good times and bad, and with a UE rate at 5%, we're not looking at lines around the block at the UE office.<br /><br />Almost everyone on this board, myself very much included, did not live through the great depression. Even when I look at my 87 year old grandfather...he was only in his teens during the '30s. You read stories and see movies, like the dock scene in Cinderella Man, of able bodied men lining up outside a workplace at 6AM, hoping to be picked for a day's work. That was a depression, and if we hit that level, I can assure you the baseball card market will drop beyond belief. <br /><br />But in March 2008, I have a 6 ft "HIRING NOW" sign on the front of my building, on a busy state route, and an add in Monster.com and the newspaper, for completely unskilled labor (essentially washing cars), and I think I've gotten two applications in two weeks. No, I'm not paying a ton (starting @ $9/hr), but you'd think there would be a line at the door if things were that bad. We had two people leave, and I'm at the point of hiring the first person who walks in the door with a heartbeat, a valid driver's license and no felony convictions...those requirements are too strict in many cases. <br /><br />I would wager, as a general rule, that most board members, and indeed most collectors of vintage (prewar and anything really pre-80) are generally better off and with more disposable income than the average Joe in our country. I'm sure, if things deteriorate, some collectors will feel the squeeze, but if things are largely contained, I don't think it'll be that bad.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>Jeff,<br /><br />Are you trying to be a contrarian indicator? The Vix or Volatility index is very close to signaling a bottom in the stock market. When fear is this palpable...money is made buying not selling. Bear Stearns is the perfect catalyst to raise enough fear to put a bottom in. <br /><br />I will make you a friendly wager that the stock market is up for the week...and higher a month from now and higher 3 months from now. <br /><br />I think this board has become a touch Draconian.<br /><br />CB

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Charlie, I suspect that the failure of one of the top investment banks along with the fed's first intervention in 80 years is the sign of the beginning of problem, not the end of one.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>It's really refreshing to see how humble the privileged are.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>Jeff,<br /><br />Are we on for a friendly bet? Or do I have to get Manos to push you around :}<br /><br />Long-term Capital had much more exposure than Bear Sterns and their demise marked the bottom in 1997.<br /><br />CB

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Charlie, I don't necessarily view these things with a one week or even three month horizon -- too many variable could come into the equation. I'd be more interested in the stock prices of the investment banks over the next 6 months and consider that they are already at year or two year lows. My point is that I think the credit crunch has only just started to rear its (truly) ugly head.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>PS -- Isn't the $600 tax refund limited to people making less than 150K? Are people who make more than 150K not entitled to tax relief?

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>Jeff,<br /><br />I agree with everything you say with regard to how ugly the credit situation. Where I disagree is... that the Stock market is forward looking and a discounting mechanism. Stocks bottom before the pain of main-street subsides. <br /><br />Sentiment is horrible and usually a good contray indicator...as soon as a non-wallstreet person can articulate the investment thesis..in this case the horrible metrics of the credit bubble...the turn in the market is quick to follow.<br /><br />How many people felt comfortable espousing the investment thesis of internet companies in March 2000? Every time I went to the gym I was stopped by somebody who had a lock internet stock tip. That type of certainty amongst the retail investor and the media usually is followed by a turn in the market.<br /><br />Aside from stocks being down...the confidence the retail investor has in Gold and Oil and all other alternatives to the US Stock and currency markets feels very mature.<br /><br />I will take your bet and say that most financial stocks will be higher 6 months from now...we can use the XLF which is a basket of all financial stocks.<br /><br />In the spirit of "Trading Places" I will bet you 1 dollar. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />CB<br />

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>boxingcardman</b><p>Leon has hit on one of the key issues facing us: education quality. I send my daughter to an expensive private school. I pay in post-tax dollars for the privilege of not sending her to the neighborhood school in walking distance from our house, which I involuntarily fund with my tax dollars. Education quality boils down to one thing: money. We do not fund public education adequately as compared to the real costs of purchasing education privately. I sit on the alumni council of my (private) high school. The school spends about $17,000 a year per pupil on direct costs (teachers being the largest part) plus the infrastructure. Class size is limited to less than 20. The children receive not only the basics but also art, music, language, computer skills and other "specialty" classes that have disappeared from the public curriculum. The difference in quality is stark. Talk to any teacher you know (there are even one or two here). The issue isn't the kids, it is having 35-40 of them in each class, and teaching to a test and not much else. <br /><br />People in this country have got to wake up to the fact that if you skimp on education and infrastructure, you get what you pay for down the line in the form of rotting bridges and ignorant workers. Taxation is not a dirty word; we owe it to ourselves and our children to fairly and properly fund the public sector. That investment in earlier, more enlightened times is what made this country great. <br><br>Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p>People in this country have got to wake up to the fact that if you skimp on education and infrastructure, you get what you pay for down the line in the form of rotting bridges and ignorant workers. Taxation is not a dirty word; we owe it to ourselves and our children to fairly and properly fund the public sector. That investment in earlier, more enlightened times is what made this country great.<br />----------------------<br /><br />We don't scrimp on eduction. We spend more per pupil on education than any country in the world. So taxation is already taking place at high levels to support education. The reality is that we have areas with good schools (usually correlated to income but not always) and areas with bad schools. <br /><br />I would argue that the earlier times you reference were done without curriculum directors, school psychiatrists, and a teachers union with policies just to the left of the old USSR. Reading, Writing, and arithmetic (and a little discipline) don't require tons of taxes.<br /><br />I agree totally that we do scrimp on infrastructure.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Fred C</b><p>Education... everytime I bring something up about education people start thinking I'm a racist. I think education in the UNITED STATES should be taught in ENGLISH. The first thing people think is that I'm against Hispanics. Well, I'm not. Our education system isn't just obligated to teaching in only English and Spanish, nooooo, we are supposed to take ALL languages into account and we are supposed to ensure that ALL children are educated equally, regardless of their native language. I'm sorry, we spend a lot of money bending over backwards teaching kids in all languages. It's pathetic. You have the English language learners pulling down those that are fluent in English. The teachers cannot progress past the point of the slowest learners, else those not proficient in English get left behind. Do you think that if one of our kids went to a public school in France that the school would teach our child in English? Hell no, the kid better know French or be prepared to get left behind. <br /><br />When we talk about education there are many little points that need to be included. Yes, we as a country, probably spend more per capita on education because we cater to EVERYONE. <br /><br />I probably said too much already about education. I think a vintage card curriculum should be included in all elementary school lessons. It would teach the kids history (baseball), statistics and economics all in the same class. Oh yeah, do it in ENGLISH.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>jeff prillaman</b><p>I would like to point out that when you compare our country's education system you should be aware that by law we have to test everyone and everyone gets an education. In many countries once you hit middle school age you if your grades or test scores are substandard you go into a vocational skill and are "taken out" of the system. While we continue to test all levels of students whether they are college bound or not. If you compare our kids at the 3rd grade level or compare the top 20% or something like that you get an entirely different picture. <br /><br />As far as the cost per student a large percentage of the cost per is tied into the special ed curriculum where we have students with individual teachers, and classrooms with 1 teacher for three students. In our local high school we have as many special ed teachers as history teachers. <br /><br />There are numerous other factors to consider as well, from the inability to fire poor teachers, to the huge influx of foreign students that tax resources and create ESOL departments that are larger than the guidance department to the simple reality that many of our students (and to a large degree minority students) come from single parent household. and of course there are way too many chiefs and not enough indians in the school system as well. <br /><br /><br />

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jim Dale</b><p>Since education has come up and someone offered their private school experience the opposite needs to be noted. In California we tax payers put in about $8500 a year per student and get one of the worst systems in the country. Yet charter and private schools (mostly religous minded) manage to outscore and out educate our public schools with about $5,000 a year per student.<br /><br />This same poster who commented on the $17k per student and 20 student class size should note - please show me ONE study that says 20 students per class makes a difference over 30 students per class that was not funded by a TEACHERS Union. In fact a small study done by a public administration grad student found absolutely no difference in the qualities of education until the class size exceeded 35. <br /><br />Simply offer tax breaks to those who spend on their own education and let the market show for itself which system is better.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Just read a report on the internet that Bear Stearns will be bought out by JP Morgan Chase for less than $20 per share. It was at $50 before the market's open on Friday and $175 about a year ago. That's a lot of McMansions that just disappeared.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p>It will be interesting to see what the terms of the sale are....got a hunch that some sort of special loan provision from the Feds to protect agains Bear's mortgage book will be part of the package.<br /><br />Even at $20, don't know of Morgan is getting a good deal unless they've got guaranteed backing on the mortgage book.<br /><br />Washington Mutual may be next.....we'll see what the market does tomorrow.<br /><br />

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Kenneth A. Cohen</b><p>I have several close friend who are or were teachers. Though what informs my opinion is admittedly anecdotal, I can only conclude that public education's ills are primarily not the result of inadequate spending - but on inadequate parenting. Teachers complain of a lack of backing from their pupils' parents. Efforts to instill discipline are rebuffed with the parent taking the side of the child. When I was in school and ran afoul of the rules, the first thought I had was, "please don't call my father!" I gladly acepted any other punishment. I don't think I was alone in this sentiment. Without positive parental support and involvement, I believe that we could quadruple education spending and it won't make a bit of difference.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Tomorrow will be ugly beyond belief. Washington Mutual has about had it. I can think of at least one more major investment bank that I think will be toast before the fall.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>I am in 100% agreement that our biggest issue in education, and dare I say America in general, is parenting. That is where our children need to be taught morals and then reinforced in school and church/synagogue/mosque or what have you. It starts at home. <br /><br />Also, to Jim in response to your post above. I have to politely disagree when you say that the size of the classroom (# of students) doesn't make a difference. From viewing it as a student when younger, and as a parent now, I believe smaller classes are conducive to a better education through more personalized attention. Besides firmly believing that through observation it seems like common sense...best regards

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Bob C</b><p>Bruce,<br />Right or wrong, you have a flair for the obvious. <br />This hobby is, for the most part, financed by discretionary income.<br />Due to the nexus of failing/consolidating banks, oversupply of housing, $1,000 gold, $4.00+ gasoline, rising foreclosures, higher food prices and mounting job losses, discretionary income is hit hard for many people. <br />The only possible positive glimmer is the Fed keeping interest rates low, but that could only be throwing gasoline on the fire, putting off the fallout of the credit debacle until another day. And that day will come to be sure. And those $600 checks we are all waiting for? Not the answer to a maiden's call under these cirumstances. What does that buy you, really?<br />My younger brother used to own a highly successful custom furniture manufacturing company. Each piece was hand made to order.<br />He once told me the following and I will substitute one word:<br />“When times get tough, you can’t eat sportscards”<br />Interesting times we are in.<br />

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Solomon Cramer</b><p>OMG...I'm a layman at best on values, but it's mindboggling to think this 85 year old bank was trading at $70 on Monday and $150+ last year...<br /><br /><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120569598608739825.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120569598608739825.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news</a>

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jason L</b><p>saving up to buy Bear Stearns - the entire Company<br /><br />JPMorgan beat me to it within 3 days.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>LetsGoBucs</b><p>That values the firm at $250 ~ Million. Heck their building is worth more than that.<br /><br />The fed will also kick in 30 Billion to Morgan to protect against the mortgage book they inherit. <br /><br />It will be interesting, if 30 Billion will cover the exposure then JP Morgan stock is dirt cheap....if not we could be in for a whole lot of hurt.

The Depression of 2008
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Mohler</b><p>I guess that Chinese investment of $1 billion in Bear last fall is essentially vaporized. I wonder if the sovereign investment money will dry up for the other big banks/investment houses?