Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>T206Collector</b><p>&lt;&lt;T206(sorry I forgot your name again)&gt;&gt;<br /><br />S'okay, I go by T206 on here. <br /><br />&lt;&lt;These are all familiar refrains from you.&gt;&gt;<br /><br />They are usually in response to your reliance on pop reports as more than a contemporary indicator of how many of a certain card a certain grading company has graded on a date/time certain. Your posts rely on the flawed assumption that a population report will remain (a) constant for that card; and (b) relevant for that grading company. Because we cannot know how many of which card will be graded by a certain grading company in the future -- or whether that grading company's reputation will be as good or better in the future -- basing purchasing decisions on a pop report is naive -- unless you are looking for a quick flip to a like-minded collector who also is naive about pop reports. <br /><br />Since PSA 8 sales are driven by 2 or more people that purchase PSA 8 cards based on this same flawed reasoning, it is not surprising that (a) PSA would outperform SGC here; or (b) that an SGC 88 would be crossed immediately into a PSA 8 holder to sell to this crowd. Indeed, Lionel Carter's collection was graded by Mastro through SGC, unless there was a card that would have an impact on the PSA Set Registry, in which case it was graded by PSA -- to specifically target this audience.<br /><br />If you want to play the Set Registry game in the short term, you may very well be able to take advantage of the demand in that market place. But if you are interested in maintaining a value of $10,000 on a PSA 8 common card based on a pop report, well then, in my opinion you would be better off spending $10,000 on 5 PSA 8 T206 cards with a larger population.<br />

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Elliot,<br /><br />I hate to disappoint you but my cards are not for sale and selling my cards is not an option today. At a certain price and at some future time perhaps--I am more inclined to be a buyer now.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>John Basilone???<br /><br />Last time I heard about him he was fighting it out with Michael Bow on the SGC boards.<br /><br />Whatever happened to him?

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>T206,<br /><br />Where I would differ from you is that the relative pops will stay fairly constant. It is difficult to say that in this set because the pops are so low but in sets where there are more 8s the lower pop 8s 2 years ago are the lower pops today.<br /><br />I would certainly agree that if you paid $10,000 for a psa 8 pop 1 common and another popped up the price would drop. On the other hand if 5 years from now that is still a pop 1(certainly possible) it might be a $20,000 card. While this may be tough to comprehend we live in a bifurcated economy and there are a few collectors I know that I think spend several million a year on cards. Also some of us just gotta have psa 8 sets no matter what the cost. Sevens or less just won't cut it. Thus, the buyer may think probably not a good investment but to do the psa 8 and better set I gotta buy it.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Tom Nieves</b><p>Michael Bow... now there's a real winner!<br /><br />I'll drop the subject regarding John Basilone's post in this thread.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Tom,<br /><br />I do not own any of these cards nor have I ever owned them. And to answer another question, I have no idea who does own them.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>of data out there on Pop 1 cards from the T-206 set in both PSA 8 and PSA 9 from many of the major auction houses in the past 12-18 months. Those auctions were all started at modest amounts, and the market was allowed to decide the true value of these cards, as opposed to an arbitrary opening bid. Although some auction houses have questionable tactics (was it a real sale?), I will always defer to those prices realized as a more important and relevant data point than someone listing at prices that are basically guaranteed to have relatively few, if any, actual sales.<br />

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>John Basilone</b><p>Hi Jim,<br /><br />I thought the last batch of high grade T206's that Steve listed were consigned by you and that there may have been some of those cards mixed into this current offering. I may be wrong there, but that was the rumor going around. That was the reason for my post. Anyways, I hope all is well with you. Shoot me an email next time you are in Cleveland on business.<br /><br />John

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>joe</b><p>Jim probably does not own these cards, but hopes they sell high. He has cards graded as high as these and it will result in more income if they sell high. Not sure if outing the auction will help, but any collector or dealer with cards in the same grade would hope for high prices.<br /><br />Joe<br><br>Ty Cobb, Spikes flying!

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Misunderestimated (Brian H.)</b><p>Seems like a rather "chippy" thread...<br /> They are really beautiful cards and the auctions (and the priceing strategies) are fun to follow in a Forbes' magazine way. I'm happy to be aware of them and they are rather interesting<br /><br />I agree with whomever it was (Adam?) about the no outing auctions code in general but I think it doesn't matter here for a number of reasons. I sm sure that Jim had no intent to do anything improper too.<br /><br />As for "market defining" I think that may need some qualifying. From what I know about the upper echelon of the Registry and from the posts from those who seem to be in the know it these auctions basically tell us what a few guys might be willing to pay for the highest PSA graded T206 commons if they need them right now. That defines a very small part of the top of the market. Certainly an interesting part of the market but unlikely to have that much impact on the larger market for T206s unless the population of bidders is much greater than the posts above suggest. As a spectator it would be more interesting if the auctions started much lower (move the decimel place over for starters0. But if I were the seller/consignor that would be too risky for me.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>John,<br /><br />Long time--no hear. I thought you had forgotten about me. <br /><br />I like to keep em guessin on this board John--if you want to know what I am buying and selling you can e-mail me and I will tell you. They don't believe me here anyway. I can say these aren't mine and I am not a seller yet one expert says I am pimping my own cards and everyone is quite aware why I started the thread!<br /><br />Steve is my friend--it is an important auction regarding a major set...and believe it or not some don't consider high-end graded card collecting the heart and soul of the hobby.<br /><br />Jim<br /><br />

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>it is only important if it is a true "auction" format -- e.g. started modestly and then the market decides on the price. By starting Pop 1's at $10k -- it is only a ploy to try and entice two or three high-grade T-206 buyers to make an above-market investment in a common from a very popular set. It will not be an auction in that three whales will each be bidding each other up over the $10k entrance fee. The card either doesn't sell (85% chance), or it sells for the minimum bid (15% change). That, in my mind, is not an auction or a reflection of true market value. It is simply a negotiated sale that takes place in an otherwise open forum.<br /><br />Most of here residing in the armpit of the hobby...<br />A Ty Cobb Bat Off PSA 7 will set you back approximately $6,200<br />A Ty Cobb Red Portrait PSA 6 will set you back approximately $3,700<br /><br />If I polled 100 Net 54 posters and readers -- I can only imagine that less than 5 would seriously even consider taking a Pop 1 PSA 8 T-206 over the PSA 7 and PSA 6 Cobbs from the same set referenced above. And of those five -- I'm guessing that at least three of them would try and exploit Set Registry players to monetize their investment as soon sa they got it.<br /><br />That's all I got from my armchair.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />Marc

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>sagard</b><p>I'm not buying that auctions are the only way to define a market price. Too much emotion gets involved and that could either help or in some auctioneers case hurt the final hammer.<br /><br />Here we have a professional making a price and the collectors will decide if now is the time for $10K PSA 8 commons.<br /><br />I don't have a horse in this race, but I will be watching these results. The board was a far more interesting read today due to these high profile auctions being outed.<br /><br />Someone should ask the seller if he would refund if they were submitted to another respected authority and their opinion differed from PSA's opinion.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Corey R. Shanus</b><p>"...and believe it or not some don't consider high-end graded card collecting the heart and soul of the hobby."<br /><br />That is quite a statement. How does one define the heart and soul of this hobby? Is it the set registry guy who has the means and desire to shell out five figures for a low pop T206 common? Or is it a guy who may or may not have the means but chooses to spend his money not on condition rarities but on cards that are simply rare or cards that simply appeal to him, which appeal is not hampered by the card not having the best technical features? Is heart and soul represented by passion and knowledge, or is it represented by insatiable demand for bragging rights? While I collect in a manner different from a set registry guy, I respect their right to collect how they see fit. If that is how they derive their satisfaction and enjoyment from this hobby, who am I to tell them not to do it? And no, I am not saying that they cannot have passion and knowledge. But I respectfully disagree that they represent the heart and soul of the hobby.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>"This is a major newsworthy event with significant implications for pricing of the most popular set around."<br /><br />Are you KIDDING me? I checked the NY Times, LA Times, SF Chronicle and the Petaluma Argus Courier and none seemed to feature this auction.<br /><br />The only thing potentially newsworthy here is how I can get PSA to assign my "Auth" cards high grades. <br /><br />Finally- anyone who thinks that self-promotion without actually having a card for sale is not self-serving, must think that the reader is the biggest dunce since the monkey wrapped his tail around the flagpole. Seriously, every single thread started with, i.e., "isn't the spike in T205's amazing" is hardly a random observation by a casual observer. So- if you want to self-promote, or "pimp" your collection (whether you're selling or not)- go for it. But don't shroud it in a happenstance, "guess what I found." We're not that lame.<br />

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Ted Zanidakis</b><p>Your comment...."A Market Defining Event?"....has to be one of the most absurd<br />statements I have read on this Forum.<br /><br />A "Market Defining Event" is......<br /><br />The Copeland sale at Sotheby's in the early '90s.<br /><br />Or, Alan Rosen's huge 1952 Topps Hi# find in the mid-'80s.<br /><br />Or, Brian Wentz's recent huge 1952 Bowman FB (large) find.<br /><br />Or, the T206 Wagner being flipped each time to its current value of 2 Million+<br /><br /><br />I could go on and on, but I think I made my point......<br /><br />However, I don't think you will get it....as, you are encapsulated in your own<br /> little 'gold-plated plastic" world.<br /><br />TED Z

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Corey,<br /><br />Relax--my comments were tongue in cheek given my previous backbone comment--thought this was obvious.<br /><br />Cobby,<br /><br />Don't get why I am trying to promote my T206s--this is not a focus set for me--you are saying any set I talk about a graded card auction I am "pimping" my own cards.<br /><br />Ted,<br /><br />Thats because you are not a high-end graded card collector. You view things differently. <br /><br />For example if Charlie Merkel sold his 52 Topps all-world set card by card I would call this a market defining event. There are enough psa 8 cards of different pops that one can get a good handle on the market for 8s in the post popular pre-war set there is.<br /><br />

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>I agree with Marc S -- because the large majority of the cards won't sell this is not a market-defining instance. For example, if one of the cards was of a player that I collected I'd pony up for more than what the card was worth simply because I wanted it for my collection, knowing that I was throwing some money away for the right to own the card. That does not make the card 'worth' that amount (except to me). Same goes with these Registry-rare cards: some collector on the Registry may desperately need the card for his set and will be willing to pay above market price for it. Upon resale, that card is worth much less. For example, I sold a very low pop high grade prewar card recently on ebay for $3500 as two Registry guys battled it out. The same grade card, same grade sold 6 months later on ebay for $1500. What was the card truly worth? On low pop high grade commons, you need more than one sale to define a market value when you have such a thing population of people who want them.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Corey R. Shanus</b><p>Thanks for the clarification. I guess with all your prior posts I somehow came to the conclusion that that statement reflected your actual views thus preventing me from distinguishing a remark meant to be tongue in cheek.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>PAS</b><p>Why don't we just all agree that it will be interesting to see if some of these cards fetch record prices and leave it at that?

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Jeff,<br /><br />If you are right(and you may be)that the large majority of cards won't sell then that is a market defining event. I was also not aware that there may be player collectors competing for T206 psa 8 commons. I do agree with you, however, that the market is thin and prices can vary considerably. Not often do this many cards of a vintage set come up for sale with a number of pops available.<br /><br />I also think that Steve's sales of 53 Bowman Black & White and 49 Leaf are very important for defining value and it will also be interesting to see what happens with his 39 Play Ball and 34-36 Batter-Up sets.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>wow, i missed alot in the last 16 hours...<br /><br />Jim- thanks for the compliment, but there are many more T206 collectors on here who could easily be refered to as the "king of T206"- ted, brian w., scot r., hank/scott levy, etc.<br /><br />Marc- i agree with you on this: "Those auctions were all started at modest amounts, and the market was allowed to decide the true value of these cards, as opposed to an arbitrary opening bid."<br /><br />BUT...<br /><br />...this may shock you, i would easily take a PSA 8 1/1 (none higher) over a PSA 6 or 7 cobb, anyday, call me crazy...it has nothing to do with flipping it to the big set reg guys, it simply would be cool owning the one and only best example of a card on the planet. a cobb psa 6? there are tons of them, so many it's ridiculous. wouldn't feel special enough for me.<br /><br />just my 3 cents (as barry says).<br /><br />MS<br /><br />edited to say, a green cobb psa 7 would be the exception. <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14>

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>As a follow up, I think the higher pop 8s for sale with a starting bid of $995 present a more realistic view as to where the market is these days -- and I think those cards will all sell. <br /><br />As an aside, how about the price on that perfect Green Cobb PSA 7 that went for like 34K -- double the price of a PSA 7 Green Cobb in the spring REA auction? I was willing to spend up to 22K or so on that card and thought I'd easily get it. Boy, was I wrong! Who won that card?<br /><br />Edited to add: I understand Steve's pricing system for the low pop 8s -- it's the consignor's choice to do what he wants with his cards -- but damn, I would love to see how those cards would do if the auction started at 1 cent...

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Marc,<br /><br />I would also agree with Michael. I would much rather have a pop 1 psa 8 common than a cobb 6 or 7 from the set. If I had a cobb psa 6 or 7 I would only hold it until I could upgrade.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Rich Klein</b><p>In this case, since the auctioneer is a major player in the buisness and is even an advertiser on this board; I suspect that this is not an auction that would have gone hidden.<br /><br />The outing term I suspect runs more towards auctions placed in the wrong areas.<br /><br />Rich

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Frank Evanov</b><p>A PSA 8 of a common player over a slightly lesser graded card of a baseball legend like Cobb, Matty or CY?? You have to be joking. The PSA 8 only has value to a Registry addict. Give me the HOFer any day. Would you rather have a pre-owned Mercedes, not new, but in nice condition or a brand new "mint" KIA or Yugo???<br><br>Frank

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Frank,<br /><br />It all depends on your point of view--I look at a card that is graded 6 or less that I own and say to myself-yuck--I have to get rid of that card, I can't stand to look at it while I marvel at the 8s and 9s. If somehow I am given some 6s or less in a trade for my own records I pretend I don't even have the card.<br /><br />What percent of the cards that you own Frand are 8s and 9s?

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- just out of curiosity, why do you find a 6 so distasteful? It's far from mangled, generally a crease free card with nice corners. Maybe not your first choice, but hardly something to feel unhappy about owning.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />To each is own--either centering isn't great or corners are rounded or has surface wear, loss of original gloss, scratches or some combination of these things. If I have got them I am looking to upgrade them

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>jay behrens</b><p>I imagine Jim would be in the bathroom throwing up if he ever saw my collection <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Jay<br><br>The richest person is not the one who has the most, but the one who needs the least.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Joann</b><p>Another question out of curiosity for Jim - related to the one Barry just asked, and I've been wondering. Why 8? Why not have the cut off be at 7, or 9? <br /><br />I reside in the VG to EX neighborhoods in card collecting, so I can kind of tell the visual difference between cards in those ranges. I don't see cards in person that are above a 5 or 6, and from scans I honestly can't tell a 9 from a 7.<br /><br />So is there something about 8's visually that causes you to pick that as your cut off? Or, put another way, what do you see when you see a 7? A 9?<br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />J

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Joann- 8 for some reason is a natural cutoff.<br /><br />The registry collectors prefer 8 and above. The rest of the rabble collect 7 and below.<br /><br />With vintage cards 5 seems to be a cutoff. Candy cards up to a 4 are valuable but can be found. Once you hit 5 and above you are in more exclusive company.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Joann,<br /><br />I like 9s better than 8s and 10s better than 9s. In fact with many sets I try to do them in 9 or even 10. For sets 1959 and earlier, its just too expensive. I cannot reach my goal of 100 sets in psa 8 or better by spending my budget on 9s.<br /><br />As for 7s I will buy them. I was down to 15 cards in 1955 Topps and was sick of missing all the 8s because of price so I just bit the bullet and bought the 7s with the idea that I would upgrade to 8s later on. Sitting just behind Jeff in 12th place or so in the registry I think.<br /><br />I think I can tell difference between 7s and 8s most of the time and between 9s and 8s most of time. 10s and 9s not so sure. 7s are ok--like kissing your sister--under that Jay is right--I would throw up in his bathroom.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Corey R. Shanus</b><p>Better not show your 4BH Kelly anymore as we don't want people to start throwing up.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Dave F</b><p>Hey Jim...not a t206 here, but this was my best conditioned pickup of the week...(maybe it is somewhat like Jay's as well, don't know)..would this really make you want to throw up? <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br /><img src="http://i94.photobucket.com/albums/l111/asphaltman76/steinfeldtfront.jpg">

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Dave,<br /><br />Ugh!<br /><br />All I can say is collect what makes you happy.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>I think the acceptable grade really depends on the set. In my sets from the 50s, I can tell a significant difference between a 7 and 8. The difference between 8 and 9 (and 10) is often very subtle if anything at all. In sets from the 50s, I prefer 8s and up. But in E101, 102, 106, T216, etc. -- I'm happy with 4s and 5s (assuming I can even get them). And these 4s and 5s look as good to me as the 8s I have in newer sets.<br /><br />As for Jim's and Michael's desire to own a common PSA 8 in pop 1 compared to a Cobb 6, I collected along those lines for years. The thought was that condition rarity was great for two reasons: a) the cards would be more valuable due to their scarcity; and b) a T206 in PSA 8 is a damn fine looking card no matter who is featured in the slab. The appearance is how the card probably looked coming out of the pack. My habits began to change, however, and I've unloaded many of the high grade 8s and 9s I have in favor of players I love. I have no doubt that this new collecting strategy will cost me money in the long run as the Registry guys will pay top dollar for rare high grade commons (there's no greater thrill than selling a 1958 Bennie Daniels PSA 8 for $3250 on ebay) as the cards I am collecting now are either (relatively) easily found or so obscure that no one but me would want them. But in the end, I'm happier opening up my boxes of cards and finding Cobbs, Chases, Mattys, Jacksons, McGraws, Browns etc. than Rube Manning PSA 9s. As has often been said on this site: collect what makes you happy and you'll be fine.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>Better yet....lets see this really low grade N690..it's only a 5.....yuck..<br /><br /><img src="http://www.network54.com/Realm/tmp/1190483065.JPG">

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Dave F</b><p>Leon-<br />I'm disgusted. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Frank Evanov</b><p><I>Frank,<br /><br />It all depends on your point of view--I look at a card that is graded 6 or less that I own and say to myself-yuck--I have to get rid of that card, I can't stand to look at it while I marvel at the 8s and 9s. If somehow I am given some 6s or less in a trade for my own records I pretend I don't even have the card.<br /><br />What percent of the cards that you own Frand are 8s and 9s?</I><br /><br />Jim, I have 74 T206 HOF cards. All are PSA 5 or 6, except for 1 PSA 7 [Chance]. Trust me, "yuck" is not a word that comes to mind when I look at them.<br /><br />For post-War cards, I have mostly 8's and 9's. I was recently offered a post-War pop 1 PSA 10 of a HOF player for $10K. For that price, I could have 3 PSA 9 Mantles from the same set...I would take the Mick every time!<br><br>Frank

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>PAS</b><p>I have always thought the Gem Mint grade was a contrivance. I would challenge anyone who thinks they could tell the difference between a 9 and a 10 on a consistent basis outside the holder.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>one of the last population two PSA 8 T206 cards sold for less than $3k. In fact, I can find multiple examples of PSA 8 population two T-206 cards selling for less than $3k, some as recently as within the last six months.<br /><br />That these have been listed at a nearly 70% premium to the final realized price of other population two PSA 8 T-206 cards -- that reflects to me that these are not true "values". I think there is enough relevant market data to sort thorugh what has happened in the past to come up with a reasonable estimation for what low pop. high-grade T-206 commons are worth.<br /><br />Yes -- there are a few isolated incidences of higher realized prices for some of the T-206 PSA 8 commons. Most of those are isolated to a) tougher backs, b) Memory Lane auctions or c) other miscellaneous factors.<br /><br />There was even a minor leaguer T-206 PSA 8 Pop 2 common to sell in Goodwin's May auction that went for a scant $2,155-. What is the world coming to <img src="/images/wink.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Marc

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Damn, that JP at Memory Lane really knows how to market his auctions so much better than everyone else -- and gets prices that are up to double what the same card sold for the day before! I for one am impressed.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>frank-<br /><br />you used the term "value"...i said, "it simply would be cool owning the one and only best example of a card on the planet"...has nothing to do with value for me...<br /><br />jeff- i actually think i only have 1 or 2 PSA 8 T206's left (sorry to dissapoint you Jim), i transitioned last year to rarity, and sold all of my 8's & 9's...i have low-grade, mid-grade, and some high-grade rare backs...my favorite cards that i own: PSA 4 DRUM, PSA AUTH BL 460...<br /><br />so i for one, am NOT disgusted by low-grade cards...<br /><br />BUT, i will stick to my original statement, that i would take a PSA 8 1/1 (none higher) common over a PSA 6 cobb (excluding green cobb).<br /><br />

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Brian Weisner</b><p><br /> Hi Michael,<br /> You're my buddy, but you are still crazy.... Take the Cobb and forget about the 1/1 Pop 8....Cobb is like gold, while the 1/1 might be 2,3 or 4 in a few years. Be well Brian<br /><br />PS I know you are trying to become a back collector, but you haven't quite made it yet... <br /><br /><br />PS 2 I have 30-40 PSA/SGC T206 8'S, and I will be happy to trade for Cobb 5's or 6's anyday(psa&sgc).

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>DMcD</b><p>"I imagine Jim would be in the bathroom throwing up if he ever saw my collection."<br />Funny stuff, Big Jaybowski! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14> <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br /><img src="http://www.network54.com/Realm/May07/T210_Stengel.jpg">

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Brian</b><p>What a beater. Yuck! You should warn people before posting such garbage so that they might glance away.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Casey himself would roll over in his grave if he saw himself in that condition.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>DMcD</b><p>Wouldn't want that.<br /><img src="http://www.network54.com/Realm/Sept07/T210_Stengel1.JPG">

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>brian- <br /><br />regarding the T206 PSA 8 1/1 vs. a cobb 6, it is just my personal preference. there are a ton of PSA 6 cobbs out there, but having a 1/1 PSA 8 (none higher), IMO, is unique, and very cool. even if that pop goes up to 2 or 3, etc, it is still a very crisp, beautiful card to own...just my opinion. <br /><br />regarding the personal comment, i'm a bit confused, i actually gave you "props" above in a previous post...<br /><br />we'll converse via email, not on the board.<br /><br />best-<br />MS

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Brian Weisner</b><p><br /> Hi Michael,<br /> I'm only picking on you.... Trying to lighten up the thread. Sorry you took it the wrong way. Talk to you soon. Be well Brian

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>haha...<br /><br />i totally took it the wrong way...i guess we all (excluding you) really do need to lighten-up. thanks...<br /><br /><img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />speak soon.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>David,<br /><br />Thts much better--please fix all before you post in the future.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>for whatever it's worth, a PSA 8 T206 fred burchell just sold on eBay for only $1186 (i put in a "low" feeler bid and was outbid)...<br /><br />it was 1/12, none higher...so this might be some sort of current gauge...

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JimCrandell</b><p>Michael,<br /><br />Thats exactly where I would expect a pop 12 to sell--don't you agree?

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>skepticsfan</b><p>Is this the same Steven Novella of the skeptics guide to the universe podcast?

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>jim- 8's have taken a nose-dive in the last 2 years...even high pop examples were selling for $2000-2500...the real low pops were in the startosphere...<br /><br />i think $1186 is low.<br /><br />last year 7's were selling in the $1000-1300 range...

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Anonymous</b><p>Michael,<br /><br />You are the man in T206s--you are unhdoubtedly correct--12 is a really high pop though for an 8--absent HOFers is that highest pop in the set?

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>As the six superprints from the T-206 set were all HOF'ers (Cobb, Mathewson, Chance, two Chase's and an Evers) and a significant portion of the next grouping of most common 350/460 T-206 cards are also comprised of HOF'ers.<br /><br />You cannot look at populations in isolation without consideration of the distribution methodology of the T-206 set.<br /><br />12 is about the highest pop. for a common card of a single pose variation -- although there are at least a dozen or more commons with PSA 8 pops of &gt;10.<br /><br />A Burchell PSA 8 sold in Goodwin less than 18 months ago for over $3,100 -- this latest example on Ebay was one of the softest PSA 8 prices of any common in recent memory.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>T206Collector</b><p>One of the principal points in the PSA Pop Report debates that sometimes take place was made very efficiently when Brian said:<br /><br />"Cobb is like gold, while the 1/1 might be 2,3 or 4 in a few years. . . . I have 30-40 PSA/SGC T206 8'S, and I will be happy to trade for Cobb 5's or 6's anyday(psa&sgc)."<br /><br />And, you won't see me trading my SGC 60 Cobb for high a grade/low pop common any time soon.<br /><br />Moreover, putting aside Brian's fundamental point about the potential for growing populations, again if PSA loses market share, or if cards are cracked a resubmitted, the numbers themselves do not mean what it is suggested they mean. <br /><br /> <br />

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>sagard</b><p>On topic:<br /><br /><a href="http://tinyurl.com/2v9qsy" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://tinyurl.com/2v9qsy</a><br /><br /><br />Two Pop 2s sold at the $5K. A single Pop 3 sold at $3K. Three Pop 4s at $2K. The Pop 5s almost sold through at $1.5K. Lots of action on the higher Pops.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JinCrandell</b><p>Well--34 of 52 cards I think sold--better than the skeptics view that less than half would receive bids.<br /><br />Net net probably a bit less on the bidding than I thought so if it is a market defining event I think prices have come down a bit fron the feverish levels of a year agom Imagine collectors not willing to pay $10,000 for a pop 1 common?

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>I can imagine collectors not paying 10K for a pop 1 T206. It's just too much money for a common, even if it is the highest graded example. Maybe some semblance of restraint has finally arrived.<br /><br />As far as prices being a down a little bit I've noticed that in other areas of the market, too. The really rare and special is still very strong, but the area of the market perceived as overpriced is starting to go through a correction.<br /><br />(edited to add why is this thread so wide? It's a pain to read)

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>I think the higher the cost of a high end common the thinner the market. Certainly it's mainly due to the registry where the higher prices have gone in the first place. This thread is wider because the auction link is very wide. If someone knows how to do a tiny url thing I can fix it...otherwise, that link is the reason. It stretches way over to the right of the field....regards

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>JinCrandell</b><p>Barry,<br /><br />I agree--about time the low-to-mid grades started going down.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>sagard</b><p>Sorry about the long url. I fixed it. I think the pricing stategy is right on target. The low pop stuff will sell for good money anytime. Nothing is hurt by fishing for a few weeks/months.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Jim- you know you're right. Some mid-grade and low grade cards are starting to go down. I saw it in my last auction.<br /><br />Isn't it great when we all agree so easily! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Chad</b><p><img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />--Chad<br /><br />(Just funning!)

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>MVSNYC</b><p>exactly as i predicted...<br /><br />much action on the higher pops...and little to no action on the low pops...and the exact players i predicted as well.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Bobby Binder</b><p>Just the high pops sold...no low pops<br /><br /><br /><br />4909/27/07eBayTurner$1,495.00<br />4689/27/07eBayStovall (Portrait)$1,225.00<br />4479/27/07eBaySmith (Frank, Chicago, F. Smith On Front)$1,495.00<br />4459/27/07eBaySlagle$1,184.00<br />4439/27/07eBaySheckard (No Glove Showing)$1,225.00<br />4349/27/07eBaySeymour (Batting)$1,559.25<br />4289/27/07eBaySchmidt (Throwing)$1,227.24<br />4159/27/07eBayRossman$1,569.00<br />4049/27/07eBayRaymond$4,995.00<br />3829/27/07eBayPayne$1,581.00<br />3759/27/07eBayOverall (Portrait)$1,995.00<br />3699/27/07eBayO'Leary (Portrait)$1,377.00<br />3689/27/07eBayO'Leary (Hands On Knees)$1,147.00<br />3679/27/07eBayOldring (Fielding)$1,995.00<br />3569/27/07eBayNattress$1,225.00<br />3439/27/07eBayMoran (Pat, Chicago)$2,995.00<br />3379/27/07eBayMilligan$1,200.00<br />3359/27/07eBayMiller (Pittsburgh)$1,183.00<br />3259/27/07eBayMcIntyre (Brooklyn & Chicago)$1,236.00<br />2839/27/07eBayLennox$1,192.00<br />2749/27/07eBayLake (St. Louis, No Ball In Hand)$1,995.00<br />2579/27/07eBayKleinow (New York, With Bat)$1,225.00<br />2169/27/07eBayHoffman (Danny-S.L.)$1,647.11<br />1829/27/07eBayFromme$1,495.00<br />1739/27/07eBayFiene (Throwing)$1,531.55<br />1699/27/07eBayEwing$1,495.00<br />2859/27/07eBayLiebhardt$1,525.00<br />1569/27/07eBayDurham$1,457.12<br />1439/27/07eBayDougherty (Portrait)$1,225.00<br />1259/27/07eBayDemmitt (New York)$4,995.00<br />1249/27/07eBayDelehanty (Jim)$1,716.37<br />319/27/07eBayBell (Pitching Follow Through)$1,647.11<br />189/27/07eBayBarbeau$1,745.63<br />99/27/07eBayAmes (Portrait)$1,551.11<br />39/27/07eBayAbbott$1,330.17

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Looks like those cards sold for well below expectations.<br /><br />In my just concluded auction the PSA 7/7.5 T206's all sold for less than I expected. Something is happening in this area.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>T206's<br /><br />In my opinion, these cards sold cheaply because most were graded over 10 years ago and looked low-end for the grade. Before I am attacked by those that own PSA cards from 10 years ago. I should qualify the statment to add, not every card graded 10 years ago is a slider but many of the high-end cards from that era were reviewed and upgraded. Therefore, it is natural overtime to see only the mid to slider cards remaining in old-holders. Also, the standard for grading T206's has changed. Many of the PSA 8's that Steve Novella represented on ebay had centering issues, mostly top to bottom. The market treated those cards like high-end 7's rather than 8's. It is a positive to see many choosing not to only buy the holder blindly.<br /><br />Check out SCP's last auction, T206 commons (graded very recently)in PSA 7's & 8's sold much stronger. Centered mid-pop (recently graded) T206's are still $2,000 give or take.<br /><br />CB<br /><br />

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Lee Behrens</b><p>I think many of these cards not only had centering problems but measuring problems. I hate to even look at T206 PSA auctions of 7 or above too often I see cards that seem to have questionable measurements.<br /><br />Lee

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>Lee,<br /><br />Did you give your username and password to your brother?<br /><br />CB

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Charlie Barokas</b><p>Lee or Jay,<br /><br />If you care, measuring is the least affective way to ascertain successful trim jobs (any person with scissors can cut a T206 in half). A quality trimmer is most likely looking for an oversized card to cut down to the correct 2 5/8 measurement (top to bottom).<br /><br />There are many T206's that measure less than 2 5/8 (top to bottom) and are completely original.<br /><br />CB

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>I think most of us predicted that the high pops would sell and only the occasional low pop card would sell -- which is exactly what happened. I don't think that anything that occurred really changed the landscape of the price structure of high grade T206s.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Lee Behrens</b><p>Charlie, Did I mention trimming, NO. But I question the appearance of the cards measurements. Is it a good possibilty that the cards have been trimmed, yes. Are all trimmers smart enough to find oversized cards? If you can knowingly get cards past graders even if they are short, would you trim to clean up corners. If you so not think that there is some preferential treatment to some by PSA than you are really blind to what is going on. If you want to turn a blind eye to the shortness of the cards, go spend your money on them and be happy. I for one will not. You guys can defend this all you want but I know you want to get the best bang for your buck and getting a higher grade on a question card is no way of getting more money. <br /><br />As far as T206 cards being short, when did this happen I have been around these cards for 25 years and handled at least 2000 of them and never seen any size difference. Make me as ignorant. There sure seems to be more of them in highgrade holders than in low grade, now why is this?<br /><br />This is my Guiheen mini, not graded trimmed, but SML, minimum size not met.<br /><br /><img src="http://webpages.charter.net/leebehrens/GuiheenMini.jpg"><br /><br />Charlie, so you want me to give jay my name and password? It sure would be nice then the rest of you can continue to hear his rantings other than me. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Lee

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Lee Behrens</b><p>Jeff it did show that the market on high grade cards has fallen. As Barry stated it seems par for the course for everything but the scarce stuff.<br /><br />Lee

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>In any event, it was a market-defining event, as predicted - maybe not in the same predicted direction, but the premise was correct.

Steve Novella's PSA 8 T206 Auctions--A Market Defining Event?
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>All it takes is a couple of Registry guys battling it out for 10 high grade cards in a set for the world to think prices are going through the roof. Once the buying stops, card prices come back to earth.