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That said, a money printing machine like PSA should suck it up and deal with it...imo... |
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As far as the pack assortment and distribution of cards. This was not modern printing, there was not an order that things came off the press, these cards were printed, cut, and placed into packs by hand. Then the boxes were packed randomly by hand. It would be like taking 40 decks of cards, throwing them in the air and trying to play blackjack guessing when you would hit 21. |
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The surviving pop counts of 1948/49 Leaf Short Prints is likely somewhere between 200-250 total copies of each card. Each SP was printed on the same 7x7 sheets, so the original pop counts were identical for all SPs.
The PSA pop counts for most SPs range from about 90 to 110 each. But those aren't graded often enough to get an idea of the true total population obviously. With the Paige being worth $20k+ even in low grade, nearly all copies have been graded at least once, with many of them having been graded multiple times. Are there still a handful of raw copies sitting in someone's attic that have never been graded? Sure, of course. But there probably aren't dozens of them floating around unaccounted for. The combined PSA/SGC/BVG pop counts for the Paige is currently 279 (193 PSA, 74 SGC, 12 BVG). It's safe to assume that each of the 12 BVG copies was sent to both PSA and SGC before being sent to BVG, so we can safely remove at least 24 from that pop report. Minus however many of the remaining PSA & SGC copies that were also cracked and resubmitted. Far more have been cracked and resubmitted than raw copies exist in Grandpa's attic today without question though. I would estimate that the true total remaining pop report today for the Paige is somewhere between 200 to 250 copies. And the remaining pop report for the other short prints is likely slightly less due to them being tossed in the trash at higher rates than the HOFers over the years. The data suggests that there is approximately a 10 to 1 ratio for the full print run cards to the short printed cards. See counts below. Notable combined PSA/SGC/BVG pop counts from the set: Short Prints: Satchel Paige 279 (193 PSA) Bob Feller 199 (156 PSA) George Kell 148 (111 PSA) Dom DiMaggio 171 (124 PSA) Larry Doby 215 (162 PSA) Non-SPs Ted Williams 2202 (1471 PSA) Babe Ruth 2328 (1595 PSA) Joe DiMaggio 2246 (1501 PSA) Jackie Robinson 2676 (1849 PSA) Stan Musial 1968 (1339 PSA) |
I would argue there are a LOT more ungraded copies than people think. We've graded two Paige cards from original owner collections in 5 years and we're pretty small potatoes.
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Delete.
I'm not sure what happened to my response, but it looked like absolute nonsense when posted. Mark Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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Kent Peterson Black Cap = 246 (62.4%) Kent Peterson Red Cap = 148 (37.6%) Cliff Aberson Full Sleeves = 249 (61.3%) Cliff Aberson Short Sleeves = 157 (38.7%) That gives us ~62%, or ~1550 out of ~2500, Black Cap Petersons and 38%, or ~950 out of ~2500 Red Cap Petersons. |
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And had not my contention been intrinsically sound, you wouldn't have been immediately compelled to simply obfuscate by calling upon my "sources". Quote:
My apologies though for venturing into set theory which is a subset of mathematics. I know many of you individuals in the legal field went into law because math isn't your strong point. But numbers very often intrude into the real world, they really do. Quote:
The very oldest semi-organized field of collecting may be that for coins. Coin collecting predates the Roman Empire. The coins most prized by collectors are those which best combine scarcity and aesthetic appeal. Those coins are rarely the oldest. For example, coins picturing the Emperor Decius postdate those picturing the Emperor Tiberius by nearly 250 years but Decius coins are more highly prized because they're rarer. And in the art world it's not a painter's earliest pictures that fetch the biggest bucks; it's his best. Quote:
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Incidentally the word is "rationalize". Yes, yes, I make mistakes too. But at least I have sufficient consideration for my fellow posters to read over my posts with a view to editing out any mistakes. Quote:
https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...0fa17e98fe.jpg ;) |
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The percentage of graded vs ungraded copies of any particular card is largely a function of its value. The number of ungraded T206 Wagners still floating around is likely very close to zero these days. Perhaps there are one or three yet to be discovered, but the likelihood that there are dozens of them sitting around in attics is almost certainly zero. There are still some collectors out there who, as a point of pride or preference, like to keep their prized cards like 52 Mantles and 48 Leaf Paiges raw, but there aren't very many of them left in terms of percentage of the population. And every time those cards come to market, they still get graded (or regraded). And any time you have a vintage card that is so valuable that it must be graded regardless of condition in order for it to be transactable on the market for anything other than pennies on the dollar of its true value, you can be pretty sure that the pop reports for that card reflect something close to it's true population, if not slightly exaggerating it due to resubmissions (which are MUCH higher than most people here realize). So this would work for something like estimating the true population for 52 Mantles, but definitely not for estimating the 53 Mantle population (there are other sampling techniques we could use to estimate that, but that's another discussion and one I'd prefer not to get into here). And while yes, I agree with those who say there are still plenty of 52 Mantles out there to be graded, the reality is that those numbers are dwarfed by the number of copies that are/were cracked and resubmitted. Quote:
The 52 Topps Mantle likely has a very similar print run as the 48 Leaf Jackie Robinson. Maybe 10% or so higher at most. |
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Case in point, I never denigrated people who do not collect the earliest. If you knew anything about me, you'd know I don't collect the earliest. My argument was just that you can't support your assertion that collectors like rookies because dealers duped them into it. And I've been right all along. In all your walls of text, you've yet to even attempt to prove that claim. You keep making irrelevant arguments using poor logic about statements I made, all while missing the point. I guess I'll just wait for you to produce literally any evidence to support your claim. But I won't hold my breath. By the way, since it's clear it went over your head, "[citation needed]" is a meme based in wikipedia, meaning you have posted something without supporting evidence. |
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All of the factual evidence that I've seen shows the short print distribution in states that border Canada west of Pennsylvania.
I have posted this ad before from a May 12 1949 Spokane Washington newspaper. The ad states 6 cards in a pack and that's how many cards were in the packs in the Rosen short print find from Michigan all of the evidence on the first series is 5 cards in a pack. Attachment 644469 |
My guess..
Taking all the crack and resubs into account, more likely the true number of graded 1952T Mick's are closer to the number of 52T Jackie graded (1968) than the current 2862. …and the true number of 1952 T jackie cards graded are prob closer to Bobby Thompson's 1175 than 1968 (as his card isn’t being cracked much). Quote:
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LOL so I got that going for me, which is nice. |
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For example, I provided not just one but several counter examples to your assertion that collectors naturally prefer the old. Moreover you argued that collectors are a set distinct from consumers. This is nonsense since collectors are nonetheless a subset of consumers (and thus influenced by marketing). Quote:
:p |
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And I gotta' get your book, man !! :cool: |
This is interesting and I remember having a few discussions on here about this subject during the pandemic. How do you know that the blue hats were not a first printing instead ?? Also, do you have any idea why Leaf decided to make these changes ?? I was never in the printing industry, but I do have a basic understanding of CMYK printing. If they had rolled the black ink on top of the blue hat, then it would've given it its 3D shaded look (like the way most of them look like), but for some reason, Leaf decided to leave the black ink off the hat during that particular print-run, and again, I have no idea why they did this. Aesthetic reasons ?? Maybe trying to save black ink ?? :D
And I gotta' get your book, man !! :cool:[/QUOTE] Several factors pointed at the BLACK HATS being first. The strongest voice was that of the collectors that were alive during the first run and buying the cards. TedZ was the Rosetta Stone on this and so many others. Also if you look at the cards from the Antique Roadshow link, those were collected in Massachusetts, which is where the cards were first distributed. All of those cards, and all of Ted's had black hats, the removal of the black plate details made the cards brighter, and I am guessing that was direct feedback from sales or consumers. They also added color bars to close off the backgrounds, so it was a multiple plate change, making it truly a variation! Exciting stuff, I can talk about it all day long. |
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Everything that you wrote above is a very interesting topic and worthy of its own thread. Here in Toronto, we have the biggest card show in the country twice a year. I have these American buddies of mine that always come down, and whenever they do, they ALWAYS get a 52T Mantle ... or two. I also have some dealer buddies who live in Quebec and they find this card every now and then as well. And this is just Canada I'm talking about !! Imagine the US ?? Wayyy bigger population and wayyy more cards !! In the next ten years or so, I believe that we’re gonna’ see hundreds and hundreds of these cards come outta’ boomer collections. It's gonna' be wild, bro. Oh, and in the last REA auction, I was checking out the Leaf Jackies and noticed how most of the PSA-graded examples had new serial numbers. It's starting ... lol |
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https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/7~wAA...yo/s-l1200.jpg https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/c...8/images/1.jpg |
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;) |
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Regardless, it’s a pretty cool set with some great cards.
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The first American Musial was the 1946 Sears postcard.
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I've seen some high-grade examples that are a bit "short" and it always scares me considering that Gary Moser used to love chopping these up (and maybe still does !!) :eek::eek: |
Thank you to Samosa for showing the Paige. Ugly, or not, beautiful example of a hard-to-get card. I'm guessing they had the right to use that image and Paige was a tough negotiator. Or hard to find.
Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk |
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Leaf had zero agreements in place with players or teams. You can read a ton about their approach to photos and images here. https://sabrbaseballcards.blog/2024/...leaf-us-alone/ |
The discussions of Robinson, Musial, Spahn, and others only emphasize the fact that there is no universal definition of rookie card. In truth, there is not even a universal definition of “baseball card.” On one hand, the inherent subjectivity of it all creates ambiguity and chaos. On the other hand, it creates freedom and choice.
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Everyone has the right to their own opinions, but having heard all the arguments, I think I would lean toward the Swell Gum Robinson.
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https://d1htnxwo4o0jhw.cloudfront.ne...4TLa6KqgaA.jpg If you zoom in then you can see the oxidation, especially the top border. It looks good. |
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https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...94e79a61_c.jpg |
1948-1949 LEAF Baseball Cards
The Leaf Baseball Card set, most often referred to as the 1948 Leaf Baseball Cards, has always befuddled me for the most part as why it is considered a 1948 issue in the first place and not a 1949 issue. Is this designation a Misnomer?
I just read the book “re:LEAF written by Brian Kappel. Who support this Premise. Many wonder why the series is “skip numbered” listing the 1st series (49 cards) as well as the 2nd series (49 cards) (SP) referred to as “Single Print”, as its distribution was much less than the 1st series, in a quantity of 98 total with numbers skipping from 1 thru 168. I believe the cards are a 1949 issue. I have looked and read all the backs of these 98 cards and 96 of them all reference player records inclusive of the 1948 season. 1948 is either called out or implied as statistics mentioned are for the 1948 season. There are 66 cards showing a copyright date of 1948 and 32 showing the date of 1949. Both the 1948 and 1949 dates appear on the 1st and 2nd series cards. My thinking is they started writing the narratives for the card backs after the 1948 season and about 2/3rds were written in 1948 while the remaining got written in early 1949 before going to printing and distribution in spring of 1949. The two cards that don’t reference the 1948 season are the #3 Babe Ruth and #70 Honus Wagner, both of whom were retired and in the Hall of Fame well before 1948. So why on earth this is considered a 1948 issue is beyond my reasoning. I have a copy of the first “Card Collector’s Company of Franklin Square N.Y. Checklist book issued inclusive if the 1962 Topps set and in it, they refer to these cards as 1948 but their checklist only includes the 1st (49) cards and mentioned more cards had just been found. The second series single print cards. As Leaf was a Chicago company, I guess it took awhile for them to end up in New York state. Perhaps The Card Collectors Company set the direction for all others to follow calling the cards as a 1948 issue. I think the fact that there are only (98) cards not counting the 3 variations within the 1-168 numbering from Joe DiMaggio to Phil Cavaretta means there were initially planned 4 series of (49) cards each for what would have been a total of 196 cards. The 7x7=49 sheets would have produced this if it was not for what appears to have been many quality problems and what is mentioned by the Card Collector’s company as legal difficulties. The set is the only issue that Joe DiMaggio ever appeared as an active player post WWII except for the Callahan Hall of Fame series issued from 1950-56. There were no Bowman or early Topps issues so I bet Leaf had some exclusive rights to his gum card that may have carried as far as the 1960/61 Fleer Baseball Greats that never had Mr. DiMaggio. Leaf was still around at the time and did their 1960 set with two marbles in each pack instead of gum. Some 20% of these cards are for the Chicago based White sox and Cubs and their card back narratives seem to have been written by a salty Chicago newspaper sportswriter most all in the same direct style. In would be interesting to somehow uncover who that was. I believe the Leaf football issue of 98 cards was indeed a complete 1-98, 1948 issue as a summary review of their backs show reference to either NFL or college seasons of 1947 or before with card #91 of Leon Hart referencing a spring 1948 practice. I have not reviewed the backs of all 98 cards, however, like I have done with baseball issue. It is obvious to me that this football series of complete 98 cards proceeded with the baseball offering. The 1949 version of football cards look to end with skip numbers like baseball offering possibly with original plan for 196 cards that was cut short. Lastly, I remember reading a long time ago that Leaf found that the album they offered on the back of some cards for 25 cents did not have the slots quite fit the cards and that they cut the width of later produced cards to allow them to better fit. Fact or myth it would be interesting to know how many of the cards were given the “A” for authentic but altered classification. I have two of these cards that are a little lean on published width too. There is such album that has been on eBay for some time now for about $4,000. The seller has told me there are 98 slots and they look to be the right size for the established card dimensions In any case the location of the Leaf Gum Company located at 1155 North Cicero Avenue in Chicago is long gone. Don Carpente |
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Good discussion !!!
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--1947-49 Aarco issues (Bond Bread, square corners, 'exhibit') --Sports Exchange W603 --R346 Blue Tint --Swell Sports Thrills --R302-2 MP & Co. --1951 Berk Ross And his Callahan was issued in 1954 as part of that year's update, and is a SP. But other than that... |
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Don't forget the 1955 Canadian Exhibits. DiMaggio is in that set also, |
If you buy into the Leaf being a '49 issue, I suppose that makes the '49 Bowman Jackie's rookie card as well. Maybe?
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Cards as an active player, guys.
John, yes it does. |
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