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G1911 07-12-2024 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tod41 (Post 2447469)
Garvey's post season numbers make him an interesting candidate. He was a dominant player in his era which was not a great offensive era.

He really was not. He topped out at a 138 OPS+, which for a 1B's best season is pretty low. He did not actually dominate his era outside of the hearts of his fans. 117 OPS+ is pretty average for a 1B.

Peter_Spaeth 07-12-2024 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll (Post 2447461)
When I was a kid in SoCal during the 70's, Steve Garvey was big time. He was the leader of the Dodgers (darn good team). Won the 1974 MVP. And I collected his cards mostly because he always has that nifty "All-Star Logo" on his cards. Only the All Star starters got that All-Star banner/shield/star on their cards.

That was back in the day before Rookie Cards became so dang popular. As kids, the heck with new rookies who you had no clue about. They were tossed aside into the commons box. As kids we all wanted the cards of the top shelf players.

Garvey was the best at his position for a long time. To me, that is a criteria for HOF.

Garvey wasn't just an All-Star. He was the STARTING All-Star for 8 consecutive years - 1974, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80 & 1981.

Put the dude in (HOF).

Yogi Berra has a surprisingly low WAR compared to other top shelf catchers. I kinda don't get it. Everybody loves Bench, he has the highest WAR. But all things considered, I might take Yogi as my #1 all-time catcher. What he did for the Yankees was beyond amazing - the leadership, the handling of the pitching staff, his knowledge of the game, he made his whole team better. And yeah, he also had some pretty darn solid stats. I think he is recognized as the most winningest player in MLB history.

I am not saying it isn't so, but what actual evidence do you have of his leadership, handling of the pitching staff, and knowledge of the game?

Touch'EmAll 07-12-2024 08:24 PM

Yogi: He played catcher. Could be most important position, so the better your overall all around play, the better your teams chances of victory. He won a lot. He went on to become a decent manager. This often shows leadership and high knowledge of the game. MLB Commissioner, Rob Manfred, "Yogi was renowned as a Great teammate." Also a real plus off-the-stat sheet quality.

Garvey had a career .996 fielding % at First, an MLB record. Garvey also played 193 consecutive errorless games at First Base, another MLB record. And is the only player in the history of baseball to have played an errorless season at the position.

Peter_Spaeth 07-12-2024 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll (Post 2447483)
Yogi: He played catcher. Could be most important position, so the better your overall all around play, the better your teams chances of victory. He won a lot. He went on to become a decent manager. This often shows leadership and high knowledge of the game. MLB Commissioner, Rob Manfred, "Yogi was renowned as a Great teammate." Also a real plus off-the-stat sheet quality.

Garvey had a career .996 fielding % at First, an MLB record. Garvey also played 193 consecutive errorless games at First Base, another MLB record. And is the only player in the history of baseball to have played an errorless season at the position.

-11.6 dWAR

G1911 07-12-2024 08:55 PM

We could probably identify pretty easily 15 1B better than Garvey that haven't made the Hall of Fame. Whether you use analytics or traditional stats, he's nowhere near as good in the math as his fans say if you just look at his numbers.

Big Red Machine 07-13-2024 04:57 AM

I have always been surprised with Juan Marichal's low WAR of 61.8 with his 6 20 victory seasons and 2.89 lifetime ERA. Luis Tiant has a WAR of 65.6 and I would not place him in Marichal's level.

tod41 07-13-2024 07:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911 (Post 2447474)
He really was not. He topped out at a 138 OPS+, which for a 1B's best season is pretty low. He did not actually dominate his era outside of the hearts of his fans. 117 OPS+ is pretty average for a 1B.

Who was a better than him in the National League at 1B from 74 to 80? While he topped out at a 138 OPS+, Garvey had seasons of 130, 134, 133 and 130 during that span.

cgjackson222 07-13-2024 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tod41 (Post 2447521)
Who was a better than him in the National League at 1B from 74 to 80? While he topped out at a 138 OPS+, Garvey had seasons of 130, 134, 133 and 130 during that span.

So there wasn't the finest crop of NL first basemen in the late '70s.
But Stargell was better in '74, the year Steve Garvey won his MVP.
Hernandez was better in '77, '79 and '80.
Bob Watson was a better hitter from '75 thru '77.
Pete Rose was just as good in '80.

Steve Garvey was consistent, but never amazing.

Hernandez was easily the better player from '77 thru '80. Hernandez' OPS+ was several points higher than Garvey's, and he was a much better fielder.

Hernandez was only a Rookie in '75 and only had 188 at bats, so its not a fair comparison for '74 and '75.

Peter_Spaeth 07-13-2024 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tod41 (Post 2447521)
Who was a better than him in the National League at 1B from 74 to 80? While he topped out at a 138 OPS+, Garvey had seasons of 130, 134, 133 and 130 during that span.

Who was a better catcher in the AL than Bill Freehan from the mid 60s to the mid 70s? It's not that meaningful, all depends on the competition at the time.

I am sure there was a long stretch when Bert Campaneris was the best SS in the AL. And what of it?

G1911 07-13-2024 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tod41 (Post 2447521)
Who was a better than him in the National League at 1B from 74 to 80? While he topped out at a 138 OPS+, Garvey had seasons of 130, 134, 133 and 130 during that span.

Charles handles this in 88, but even if we just assume Garvey was the best 1B in a period of 6 selected years - how does that mean he dominated the league? Garvey did not, in any way using metrics ancient or modern, dominate the league. That is a clearly false claim, which was the claim made.

nolemmings 07-13-2024 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 2447448)
War 38. Ops .775. Obp .329. HOF no. That said, his RC will always enjoy some popularity.

C'mon, admit it-- you don't like him just because he was a Spartan :) Old habits die hard.

Peter_Spaeth 07-13-2024 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nolemmings (Post 2447566)
C'mon, admit it-- you don't like him just because he was a Spartan :) Old habits die hard.

It took him until 2010 to make THEIR HOF lol.
https://msuspartans.com/news/2010/9/...ve_garvey.aspx

aro13 07-14-2024 04:12 PM

Grich
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 2447300)
Grich 71 never can get my head around that one.

Peter- His WAR is directly related to the lack of offense from all other second baseman in the AL. In 1974 Grich hit 19 homers. I would bet the other 13 starting second baseman in the AL had a hard time hitting 19 total. The position was filled with .260 hitters with .310 OBP and .310 slugging numbers.

tod41 07-15-2024 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cgjackson222 (Post 2447531)
So there wasn't the finest crop of NL first basemen in the late '70s.
But Stargell was better in '74, the year Steve Garvey won his MVP.
Hernandez was better in '77, '79 and '80.
Bob Watson was a better hitter from '75 thru '77.
Pete Rose was just as good in '80.

Steve Garvey was consistent, but never amazing.

Hernandez was easily the better player from '77 thru '80. Hernandez' OPS+ was several points higher than Garvey's, and he was a much better fielder.

Hernandez was only a Rookie in '75 and only had 188 at bats, so its not a fair comparison for '74 and '75.

Willie Stargell was an outfielder that year. He played one game at First Base the whole season. Your other arguments are a stretch.

cgjackson222 07-15-2024 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tod41 (Post 2447986)

Willie Stargell was an outfielder that year. He played one game at First Base the whole season. Your other arguments are a stretch.

Sorry, I meant Willie Stargell had a higher OPS+ in 1975, 1977 and 1978, and 1979 and 1980 (all while a first baseman).
Yes, I realize Stargell had fewer at bats.

As for Garvey being a better hitter than Hernandez from '77 -'80. Please make your case with numbers, not fanboy feelings.

Seven 07-15-2024 08:03 AM

I always believed Alfonso Soriano was much better than his WAR indicated. WAR by itself, is a flawed statistic however.

jayshum 07-15-2024 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seven (Post 2447992)
I always believed Alfonso Soriano was much better than his WAR indicated. WAR by itself, is a flawed statistic however.

Like many of the other players with similar comments, he had a low OBP because he didn't walk much and he was not rated well on defense with a -10.1 dWAR for his career.

JollyElm 07-15-2024 02:44 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Attachment 628506

packs 07-15-2024 02:57 PM

Hard to understand Rick Reuschel's place in the WAR pantheon too. He finished with 69.5, good for the 106th best WAR of all time. Baseball-Reference ranks him as the 32nd best starting pitcher of all time.

Does anyone really believe that?

Peter_Spaeth 07-15-2024 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs (Post 2448091)
Hard to understand Rick Reuschel's place in the WAR pantheon too. He finished with 69.5, good for the 106th best WAR of all time. Baseball-Reference ranks him as the 32nd best starting pitcher of all time.

Does anyone really believe that?

Here's what makes no sense to me. On the four individual metrics that BR uses, he is pretty terrible, but when it comes to JAWS he vaults up to 32nd. What is the explanation here?

Hall of Fame Statistics
Black Ink
Pitching - 7 (440th), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
Pitching - 111 (232nd), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
Pitching - 49 (290th), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Pitching - 31 (156th), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Starting Pitcher (32nd)

jayshum 07-15-2024 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 2448156)
Here's what makes no sense to me. On the four individual metrics that BR uses, he is pretty terrible, but when it comes to JAWS he vaults up to 32nd. What is the explanation here?

Hall of Fame Statistics
Black Ink
Pitching - 7 (440th), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
Pitching - 111 (232nd), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
Pitching - 49 (290th), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Pitching - 31 (156th), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Starting Pitcher (32nd)

JAWS is the Average of career WAR and 7 year peak WAR for a player. The others have to do with things like leading the league in statistical categories or reaching different statistical milestones so Reuschel is definitely seen better by WAR than he is from his basic stats.

Mike D. 07-15-2024 08:32 PM

I think the guys like Reuschel are really interesting...WAR is just one measure, but it's generally a pretty good indicator of a player's overall impact, adjusted for era, park, etc. The players who don't make sense, either because their total seems too high or too low, are interesting to look at to understand why.

With Reuschel, I think it's a combination of throwing a lot of innings and being pretty good at limiting both walks and home runs that makes WAR "like" him more than you may think.

Also, WAR is a counting stat...BBR has him worth 18.3 WAR AFTER his age 35 season....hanging around a long time help.

Peter_Spaeth 07-15-2024 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jayshum (Post 2448175)
JAWS is the Average of career WAR and 7 year peak WAR for a player. The others have to do with things like leading the league in statistical categories or reaching different statistical milestones so Reuschel is definitely seen better by WAR than he is from his basic stats.

I would bet we can't find another example with THAT huge a disparity.

cgjackson222 07-15-2024 11:01 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 2448187)
I would bet we can't find another example with THAT huge a disparity.

Buddy Bell (shown below) was a defense-first player, so he had almost no black ink, but a good JAWS.
Ozzie Smith and Bill Dahlen are two other examples.

brianp-beme 07-16-2024 01:39 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Do your life a favor...listen and take notes when Freckle Faced Boy Prophet Who Wears Glove as Hat speaks. But it is imperative that while within his presence the rubber bands must, under no circumstances, ever be mentioned.

Brian


Quote:

Originally Posted by JollyElm (Post 2448085)

Attachment 628593

etsmith 07-18-2024 08:52 PM

WAR is a good stat but only in combination with other stats. Taken by itself it's not reliable, as shown by many of the examples above.

Peter_Spaeth 09-01-2024 08:01 PM

Bumping this to add another -- Juan Gonzalez, only 38.7. Leaving aside whether he juiced, a dominant slugger for quite a stretch.

Aquarian Sports Cards 09-01-2024 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 2458268)
Bumping this to add another -- Juan Gonzalez, only 38.7. Leaving aside whether he juiced, a dominant slugger for quite a stretch.

yeah but a dominant slugger in an era where EVERYONE was a slugger to some degree. If he had put up those numbers in the 1970's and early 80's when 35 HR often led the league his WAR would be WAY higher.

Mike D. 09-01-2024 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards (Post 2458272)
yeah but a dominant slugger in an era where EVERYONE was a slugger to some degree. If he had put up those numbers in the 1970's and early 80's when 35 HR often led the league his WAR would be WAY higher.

Yes, the era is a big part of it. As is poor defense and baserunning. Also, he only had 8 seasons of 130 games played, which I imagine contributed as WAR is a counting stat.

perezfan 09-01-2024 09:38 PM

Couple of observations, having lived in SoCal during Garvey's entire career, and watching zillions of Dodgers games...

He got a lot of cheap hits (seeing-eye pop-ups, bloopers, Texas Leaguers, etc.) He had very strong forearms, so guess we should credit him for being able to "muscle" the ball into the outfield when he got jammed.

He was the best I've ever seen at continually scooping bad throws from Cey, Lopes, Russell and Co. He saved many an error by having their backs. He was a very steadying presence, defensively.

FWIW, I despised him and his squeaky clean image. We were displaced Reds fans living in OC. But we were just kids, and now I truly respect what he did. I don't think he'll ever enter the hall, as his numbers fall pretty far short of HOF status for a First Baseman. But he was still an excellent player.

Peter_Spaeth 09-01-2024 10:23 PM

Are there any other players with six 200 hit seasons whose numbers don't even put them close? Strange case.

PS Michael Young I think had six.

packs 09-02-2024 08:53 AM

Juan Pierre had four and just missed a fifth with 196. Not a guy you think of as a hit king either.

Peter_Spaeth 09-02-2024 08:56 AM

Michael Young has a WAR under 25 (right up there with Chico Cardenas and Gene Alley) despite 6 200 hit seasons and a .300 LIFETIME average. LOL.

Mungo Hungo 09-06-2024 12:06 AM

Jesus Alou played 15 years, had a .280 batting average and more than 1200 hits -- but a WAR of just 0.8.

When you look at the other numbers, it makes sense. He had very little power, rarely walked, didn't steal bases and was sub-par defensively. The only thing he did well -- hitting singles -- made him look good in some of the traditional stats, but that's not nearly enough for a good WAR.

You have to wonder whether any other position players have played for 15 years without reaching even a 1.0 WAR.

tod41 09-06-2024 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mungo Hungo (Post 2459064)
Jesus Alou played 15 years, had a .280 batting average and more than 1200 hits -- but a WAR of just 0.8.

When you look at the other numbers, it makes sense. He had very little power, rarely walked, didn't steal bases and was sub-par defensively. The only thing he did well -- hitting singles -- made him look good in some of the traditional stats, but that's not nearly enough for a good WAR.

You have to wonder whether any other position players have played for 15 years without reaching even a 1.0 WAR.

Jerry Morales - 15 years - primarily with the Cubs - made one all star team - A career negative 2 war.

Peter_Spaeth 09-06-2024 11:41 AM

Here's an ignorant question about WAR -- for all of baseball, is it a zero sum game such that all players collectively add to zero?

G1911 09-06-2024 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 2459155)
Here's an ignorant question about WAR -- for all of baseball, is it a zero sum game such that all players collectively add to zero?

No, because the root comparison is the performance of a fictional hypothetical minor leaguer, not league average.

cgjackson222 09-06-2024 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 2459155)
Here's an ignorant question about WAR -- for all of baseball, is it a zero sum game such that all players collectively add to zero?

Maybe WAA (Wins above Average) would net to zero?

packs 09-06-2024 02:59 PM

He's famously terrible but Bill Bergen played 11 seasons and appeared in more than 900 games. He finished his career as a 170 hitter with a 21 OPS+ and a career WAR of -6.9.

Hankphenom 09-06-2024 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs (Post 2459219)
He's famously terrible but Bill Bergen played 11 seasons and appeared in more than 900 games. He finished his career as a 170 hitter with a 21 OPS+ and a career WAR of -6.9.

Amazing!


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