Ryan—Why $7.4MM? Did REA raise their BP? Solid night for the consignor; kind of a gut punch for REA, especially with the other BN cards not selling. No need to hold a bake sale for them, but still somewhat of a black eye.

Oops -- $7.2mm. Too late for math!!

Experience from my line of work and hearing Nat Turner expressly state that they are not using it to grade cards in multiple podcast interviews.

It's not possible to grade cards with the type of scans that PSA uses. No matter how high-def the images are. You need to have a machine that takes numerous images from every different angle with light reflected at different angles as well, and then convolve those images to create a topographic map like TAG Grading does in order to even begin to grade cards. And it's just too big of a hill to climb when it comes to vintage cards because of the surfaces.

I am guessing that the reserve bid amount was $100,000, and the consigner made a mistake in requesting this amount. The top bid possibly came this close to the reserve, and in my mind it is unlikely that these cards, as a group lot or as individual cards, will approach the amount that was (unsuccessfully) bid tonight...the connection with the Ruth card will no longer be physically present at any future auctions.

Brian

7.2 million is the final number. Hey, I actually picked a winner.

My takeaway is that while this is a great card, the high end bidders simply weren’t there for this card. It never moved in extended bidding.

Good question. I think 10-13 million, not much of a drop if at all.

My reasoning is that I do not believe any of the 3 psa 10s are coming to sale anytime soon. This was the best of the best in a sale forum.

Based on what happened with the Ruth card last night, the next ultra high grade 52T Mantle price should be way down as well as the next T206 Wagner. Thoughts on this?

Hi agree 100 pct . Many folks were saying 15 million plus ,oh well

This card was purchased for about $5mm less than two years ago. Last night it sells for $7.2mm - a $2.2mm (44%) increase in two years, which is 22% per year. How on god’s green earth is that result a “failure”? It isn’t. Instead, there was a ton of hype and the result did not meet the hype. But the result was very good. The hype was BS. The BN Ruth was worth $5mm two years ago. Now it’s worth $7.2mm. Seems to me, that is pretty darn positive

Strong price regardless if even many of us expected higher

Just got surprised and a little disappointed to see no slugfest or bidding in extended time.

Curious to when the next one will be offered for sale

I cannot find the pictures, but there was a nice blue example photographed next to this red SGC 3 example at the Babe Ruth museum. That one was a lower grade but looked quite nice.

I wish my retirement accounts jumped 44% in two years!

Cash them all out and 🔥INVE$T!!!🔥

...and the onslaught of reasons why it didn't sell for as much...at the top of the toppiest market in history.

I don't usually look for investment ideas around cardboard..but when I do, I use the collective brains of net54!

A private sale 2 years ago does not a market make.

An SGC 3 sold in REA in May of 2008 for $517k. Last night, in another public auction, an SGC 3 sold $7.2mm. That is a 13x multiple in 15 years. No justifications needed, only facts. 44% over 2 years in a private sale or 13x over 15 years in a public sale is a great result.

I promise you, and you can take this to the bank, those serious vintage sports card collectors that can afford one of these will rue the day that they did not bid at least one increment higher in last night’s REA auction. Maybe the winner was going to be willing to spend whatever it would take to get that card but we’ll never know as they ended up getting it at a huge bargain price.

If I am wrong here, I really feel sorry for the owners of T206 Wagners and ultra high grade 52T Mantles as they will surely be in for drops in value along the lines of PSA 10 Jordans.

Yes, my heart also aches for those with $7-10 million to spend on a piece of cardboard. Perhaps if we all pray for them they'll make it through OK.

I’m not familiar with the terms of the private sale, but some of the other posts around here are quoting $6M for that private sale. Not sure which one is accurate or if any of us know for sure. But it seems like it would make a big difference in the gain to the seller, particularly if it was really $6M.

Second, some part of the $7.2M is going to the AH, and not to the seller. Even if it’s only 5% of the hammer, that’s $300K, which reduces the seller’s take a bit. Again, especially if the purchase price was $6M.

Third, $7.2M is only a disappointment when most of the talk in the press was for $10M+. Whether the consignor really expected to get that much is anyone’s guess. But if he bought into the National hype and publicity machine, then I’m guessing he feels like $7.2M is on the low end.

Finally, compared to everyone else who has been banking 100% to 300%+ gains over the last few years, 44% (or possibly less) probably feels like losing money.

I just realized that the Dunn also did not meet its reserve. The high bid was $24.6K (with the premium) and (as others pointed out about the 13-card lot) the only thing special about this card was the association with Ruth, so the best way to sell it was at the same time. It will be interesting to see if the 14 unsold cards show up soon in another auction or if they just disappear for awhile.

Which part of the $7.2M is going to the auction house? The $0 part?

HA.

Typically an AH is not operated on an eleemosynary basis. My assumption is that they would get at least 5% of the $6M hammer. Said another way, the AH might only keep 5% of the 20% BP. But I guess you never know on a piece like this precisely what the parties negotiated.

Why say charitable when you can say eleemosynary? :)

REA received more publicity than it’s ever gotten in its entire existence with this Ruth card - and Brian was fantastic with it. REA made huge strides in reaching areas of the marketplace that no other AH besides Christie’s and Sotheby’s ever have seen. I’m pretty sure the fee on this card was 0.

Awesome. If so, then that's a great deal to the consignor.

As a reminder, this card was graded as a '3', while most of us, including myself, thought this looked like a '1' or '1-1/2'. I think a true Vg card would have attracted even more high rollers and go for quite a few more McMillions.

Brian

Agreed, the card was overgraded. However, it might still be the second best example extant. I cannot speak to that as I am not familiar with the other nine known except that one was graded a 4 and a few were either 1's or 1.5's.

^ THIS. As I studied the photo of the Ruth with the other Baltimore News cards from the same collection of the family, the red of the Ruth looked decidedly tired. I shan't jump on the grenade about why this is so, but I would think the bidders / potential bidders weren't blind to the card's appearance in contrast to its brothers, either

I was among the individuals who voted the BN Ruth would not sell for as much as the SGC 9.5 Gem Mint '52 Topps Mickey Mantle. No big deal there, but just a reminder the Mantle is a gem, whereas the recent REA BN Ruth looked the worse for wear, AND over-graded. It is a great card, and sold for well over 15 times the previous example sold. Further, that sale was the prime condition Baltimore News Ruth. Just as Mr. Mint Alan Rosen pounded the table in one of his 2 books-----in home buying, the key is "LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION". In card collecting, Alan stressed, the key is "CONDITION, CONDITION, CONDITION".

Yes, the Baltimore News Babe Ruth is rare, regally rare, all day and all night. Nevertheless, a lesser condition example may not get the bucks Ruth fans think. It didn't.

That BN Ruth is by all means a great card---just as it is. It's obviously just not a $12.7 million card. Don't let it ruin your day, or year. Besides, just around the corner might come a better Baltimore News Babe, and the sparks will fly. I hope.;) --- Brian Powell (I was not an underbidder.)

BN Ruth
 

Spot on Ryan! Also, consider that the BN Ruth (in the exact same grade) outperformed the SGC 3 T206 Wagner also sold by REA a few years ago by $0.6 million. The Wagner & 1952 Topps Mantle are the undisputed cornerstone cards in the hobby. Thus, this $7.2 million sale should be viewed as a major hobby success. We all got caught up in the “hype” of a potential eight-figure+ sale (including myself), ultimately tainting a solid $7.2 million pricing point. Crazy.

164 die hard people in the hobby of soley vintage aportscards were wrong, by a lot. About half before the BP.

Me shudders to think what will happen to all these bargain prices and value blue chip chasers.



Keep collecting what you like

T3d----My cardboard conundrum continues to be the cards I really like keep going up, and up, and up. By all means, not rookie cards; I've never gravitated to that niche, strong as it is. However, the industry continues to produce post-career cards and current Aaron Judge cards I find very attractive. Somehow, my card money continues to be spent. But I love them!!!!!:D ---Brian Powell

OK thanks for explaining. i'll check to see if there are any sources for guys saying otherwise. I don't necessarily trust PSA itself to be truthful, place more stock in your views informed by your expertise.

So do you think graders just have no clue how to grade vintage? Lots of stories, from reliable sources, about long time dealers getting absolutely screwed on subs and getting on average 2-3 grades lower than they expected even allowing for some tighter grading.

As far as the grade is concerned, TPG's do grade "on the curve," don't they, with fragile issues like T205s not held to the same standard as T206s and the like? If so, that might explain the grade, which otherwise seems incredibly generous.

:p

I saw a quick story about the Ruth card on my local news outlet, so yes, lots of free advertising for REA. The story was post auction and indicated the Ruth card sold for the 3rd highest price for a baseball card behind the 52T Mantle (at $12M+) and the T206 Wags at $7.25M.

Exactly!! I feel this is what most people are missing bc of the hype, which created very unrealistic expectations. This is the 3rd best price ever, and it’s not a t206 Wagner nor a 1952 Topps mantle - the two most iconic cards of all time that have common-man appeal well beyond your typical collector. This is a great result and REA should be shouting this fact from the rooftop, not to mention they have now sold two of the top 3 most expensive cards/sales ever

No.

It seems to me that the curve, if there is one, is based not on which set the card is from but on who the submitter is.

Animal Farm all the way.