"Boots on the ground" numbers where? The organic section of a Whole Foods on Oahu?

Yes, prices are generally up on groceries and other essentials.
Yes, the Consumer Price Index fails to account for the whole picture.
No, anecdotal references to $11.99/lb. ground beef do not provide a boots-on-the-ground glimpse into the state of the economy.

I live in Massachusetts, which is often the butt of jokes about being overpriced. Just last week, I purchased $3.99/lb. ground beef at Roche Bros., a chain that is often the butt of jokes for being overpriced. The most I've paid anywhere since COVID is $5.99/lb. And the last time I saw a $3.75 2L bottle of Coke was at a mom-and-pop convenience store with low inventory and low turnover.

Perhaps Massachusetts grocery stores have tapped into some supply-chain mojo that allows them to sell hamburger for 50-67% less than the rest of the country pays. But my takeaway is that we shouldn't use what one person reportedly pays for hamburger or Coke as a barometer for the entire national economy.

I'm too young to remember 10% mortgage rates, but I'm old enough to remember mid-2008, when gas prices were over $4.00/gallon after nearly doubling over a three-year span. 15 years later, folks are complaining that gas is over $3.00/gallon and treating it like a sign of the apocalypse.

I'm not smart enough to know whether we're headed for economic collapse. But I do know that, if we are, we can't reliably predict it using short-term fluctuations in food and fossil fuel prices.

If you work a full time job, you should be able to afford a roof and to provide for your child. If you are willing to work there should be work for you. The fruits of your labor should primarily benefit your loved ones. Simplistic, but the goal usually is.

I have not seen a whole lot of correlation between hard work and incomes; in my experience it seems to have far more to do with politics (the corporate and personal kind). Laborers work harder than I ever have in my life, they don’t make as much. It’s an attractive notion I like, but it’s not really true. Some people work very hard and make a ton, some people work very hard and make nothing. Some barely work and rake it in.

The system doesn’t seem to be working all that well right now (measured against a goal, rather than measured against third world nations), we have completely failed a large number of our citizens who don’t even have a roof, we have people willing to work without work, we have a majority apparently living paycheck to paycheck or close to it. There’s not a lot of time (probably beyond the lifespan of some of the board, but not long in historical terms) before we have to have massive unemployment as a consequence of automation. What do we do when the work to live paradigm starts to end, as appears likely? I wish that was a subject of citizen discourse rather than some of the absurdities people are debating in the present instead.

Apparently nobody here does their own food shopping. Our bill is 25-30% higher. I tend not to believe a number that doesnt include what I'm buying or spending. Food /shelter/insurance

Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk

Editing this is raw foods picked up a varierty of stores, Shoprite, traders Joes, and small amounts at HMart

rarely eat out, as yes those costs have dramatically increased. One restaurant I know said they can no longer off "buffalo"(chicken) wings because they would need to charge 15$ an order and people wont pay that for 6 wings

I haven't seen the massive spike in my food costs. It has been in line with the inflation figures. That said, I am a cook and we do not buy much in the way of processed foods (no soda, cereal, chips, prepared meals, etc.), so I don't know how much those have changed relative to raw ingredients. Also helps that I live in one of the best agricultural states and I get a lot of my produce, eggs and meat locally. My utility costs have been pretty steady too, but that is probably more the weather than anything else. We had a very mild summer in SoCal this year so we rarely ran the AC for more than a few hours and we are technically out of drought so there are no premium water charges. The only really vicious cost increase for us is medical: 17% premium increase for 2024.

Our food buying is pretty much like yours but our bills are way up.

Mine are up, but up in line with the inflation stats. Might be the local aspect. On my last trip to NY, I noticed that produce costs a lot more in the East than it does out here. Moving veggies from Bakersfield to LA is a heck of a lot cheaper than from Bakersfield to MA or NY. But our average pizza sucks, so you have that going for you, which is nice.

Do you guys go out to eat at all? I'm paying $8 for a medium coffee and plain croissant every morning in NYC. And that's at Pret A Manger. Not even a fancy independent place.

There could be a hint in there about why you're feeling strapped financially.

I doubt it since I don't feel strapped financially. I do think it's a little much to be paying for a no frills breakfast.

Right on. Glad to hear you're doing all right financially. You had me worried earlier with some of your posts.

But turning to your breakfast, I'm a simple man with a small brain, so I apologize if this is obvious, but I guess I'm struggling to understand why you would keep doing something every day if you feel like it's a bad bargain?

But maybe there's some other important non-economic element here, like it's an important part of your superstitious routine, or maybe you're there to support your wife who manages this location?

Without specifically being political, many problems are...
 

I'm not sure what you're referring to. I've said that generally speaking, it's harder to do things like buy a house or have a child today because it's gotten to be prohibitively expensive for some people.

I get breakfast on my way into work for the same reason people buy a newspaper instead of reading it online. I like to.

California and Arizona produce/meat and most non-processed food costs are way out of whack with most of the nation. The meat is generally reasonably priced and they're practically giving away produce compared to what is going on in the Mid-West and East-Coast.

I'm not talking about a 10-pound bag of dried beans (though it's also very cheap), but a variety of field-fresh stuff.

You can eat very well on the cheap in most of Cali and Arizona if you're cooking it yourself and you shop to value availability rather than simply whatever your heart desires.

I'm uh...staying out of the other parts of this thread. I'm just really impressed by how much fresh produce I can get for next to nothing when I'm around that part of the West Coast and the meat is rather reasonably price, too.

Cool, cool. I probably made the mistake of inferring that your original comment was autobiographical, and you were asking for a friend. My mistake.

Fair enough. Sounds like as good a reason as any. And it sounds like you've decided that the pleasure derived from this breakfast is worth the $8 outlay.

I do but to turn my observation back to the subject of the thread, I would of course prefer to pay less and was paying less up until inflation ramped up three years ago.

Wow, I was a Pacific Fleety for almost my entire Navy career, with the exception of Charleston, Key West and schools. So I missed out on Rota. Everyone I know who was there says it is awesome. Thanks for your service, sir! I was an Aerographer's Mate (AG, weather guesser) before I got commissioned. Yes, Chiefs do run the Navy! I made AGC while on board USS Independence CV-62. Sad to say she's razor blades now. Indy was a good ship.

I was extremely impressed by the large number of very large greenhouses growing produce in Arizona. When attending the U of A for growing produce in greenhouses we got to tour a few. As someone who grew produce commercially for a few years. Price is mostly determined by the subsidies received. It is in all honesty the most important part of growing produce for profit.

:eek:

I go to an independent place, the coffee cart right outside or Pret A Manger (29th and 7th), Large coffee and two buttered rolls, $6 including a tip!

And he usually gets it ready for me between the time he sees me down the block and when I get to the cart. :D

My total average cost of electricity was 14.0 cents per kWh in 2020.

My total average cost of electricity was 16.0 cents per kWh over the last 12 bills ending in November, 2023.

Do I think this modest increase is indicative of national inflationary trends?
No, I do not. It is a mere localized sample.

You can't draw broad conclusions from the cost of an item at your local store.

Also, people don't seem to understand how compound interest works. If inflation was 7% annually, the cost of goods would nearly double every ten years. Even moderate amounts of inflation cause the cost of goods to go up significantly (in nominal, not real values).

I miss UArizona's greenhouse webcams. It was nice to see what they happened to be working on.

I used to work in research agriculture (BASF, Syngenta), but I currently work in a lab environment government position focusing on post-harvest testing.

All I know is, I sure had more money in my pocket during the prior administration.

You could also die. I think this is a big part of why we struggle to grow the military.

Thank you for your service.

Nothing goes up in a straight line and everything has a cycle.

Of course you did. They juiced the economy by borrowing from the future lol. But there's no such thing as a free lunch.

Also, this inflation was coming regardless of who would be sitting in the white house.

And politicians IMO get too much credit when things are up and too much blame when they are down.

Don't move to San Jose, CA. Our peak rates here are 54¢ per kWh, and our average rate paid is 38¢.

And I haven't seen gas prices below $5 per gallon here in over a decade. We were over $7 per gallon last year during the peak. It's still about $6/gal today for premium here.

Very true

I’ll second that.

To quote (probably a bad misquote) a random political-adjacent historical figure:

“What happens in your house matters more than what happens in the White House.”

Let's try this:

List the manager or Head coach that:

" Gets too much credit when things go up and too much blame when they are down"

My choice is Bill Belichick

Second is Billy Martin

Andy Reid.

yup!

A reactionary revolutionary?

I believe I am at the opposite end. Saying you are in the middle says you at least care. I can tell you the governor of the state I live in and the president. I cannot name a single other politician currently in any office/position. I don't have a clue who the vice president is nor do I care.

In fairness, I think the current president might say the same thing.

No, sir, thank you for your service, a lot longer than mine. Your rise through the ranks from E1 to O4 is a spectacular Navy success story. Well done. I knew quite a few Mustangs and none ever got higher than O3. And you proved that even a lowly squid can have a terrific vintage collection.

I hope you agree with me that Senator Tommy Tuberville should be tarred and feathered. John
P.S. What's tomorrow's forecast?

Phil, I think possibly you bought too much during the peak, but I could be wrong, just a guess. I'm still making plenty in 2023 from memorabilia (Tickets, Programs, Baseballs, other vintage oddball items). "You gottta know when to hold 'em, know when the fold 'em." said a wiseman.....or was that Kenny Rogers? Ya had to know not to buy durng the peak. Prices were getting nutty, FOMO was a joke. I loved it. Bought me a truck.

Sold during the Peak, that was the key. And still selling.

and yes prices are down from the peak but they are still above before Covid.

You need to know when to use Ebay when to use an auction house, which auction houses do better at what. If you can be first, be first. Once an item hits the next one almost always go for less. Sold an item at Lelands for 4K, exact same item then sold at Hunt for $800, just a couple months later, could of been me, but my item was first.

So money still out there to be made in this game just gotta know how to play the game....one piece of advice, buy in the Fall sell when the new year hits. No one spends this time of year. It's the After National before Christmas Lull. But come January/February people start buying again. Want say even with Covid & the Peak this was the case, guessing /hoping it will be again come the new year. If not wait it out, or be strategic.

Ha! Now that's funny on a couple of levels.

FWIW (maybe not much) the S&P 500 is up more than 17% YTD. Not all is doom and gloom.

Yes, it can be dangerous. The flight deck is no place to be if you don't need to be there. Just one example. However, there are any number of dangerous jobs out here in "the world". There are any number of jobs in the military far less dangerous. And these jobs leave you with benefits and entitlements the civilian sector does not provide you.

Jerome has produced the soft landing....

Things are never is good as they seem and never as bad as them seem....

I'm blessed and thankful.

Things will work out :- ) I don't take collecting to seriously, it's a lot of fun and a learning experience.. Just have fun with the cards...

I put window washer fluid in my Mercedes this morning at exxon $8 omg lol

Val is looking at the right numbers.

Keep buying, put your $ to work on an automated schedule, and look once or twice a year for fun.

You know it's only a few stocks pulling the index?

Going to be the same as the card maket. It's human nature.

Zombie companies and fair weather traders, the modern, mid grade star cards and stubble beards begin to exit

Mass panic ensues, people.on margin or credit cards, those that need to sell or need the cash for some better deal/stock start a cascade of selling

Good companies ie the Mantles and Cobbs start to decline


People see value, and start to bid them up.


Rinse and repeat

We can argue where we are on the timeline, but at no time will it "be different "

"It's different this time!!!!" - Every time, by everyone

Well, assuming the two of us (and our similar minded friends) count as someone, then not literally everyone. But just about.

Precisely why you can't time any market, but have time IN the market. Recently I saw someone post "the mantle rookie , 1952 tops, has gone up every b3year for 80 years" my guess, they don't have much time in the market!

Where the heck are you shopping?
I'm going today, I'll make a note of those prices.

Gut feeling having done the grocery shopping for a long time now, most will be about half.

I haven't been to a whole foods or anything like that those places are probably close to the claimed prices.

It kinda does. You do realize gas is a worldwide commodity?? That is why it is a worldwide issue.

I contribute to my 401k. 31% to be exact. You can say the S&P is up. I am STILL in the hole from my peak around 4 years ago, under a different administration. And that is with me steady dumping 31% a year. Yes, I am glad the market is up this year. Yes, we are still in the hole. Those are facts.

We all did Jim. We all did. Going green ain't cheap. Reminds me of when I try to eat healthy. The healthy food is SOOOOOOOO expensive. You wanna eat like s**t?!?! .99 cent double cheeseburgers. It's ridiculous.

No...it really wasn't. Let's just say that when you attack our energy sector and spend like a drunken sailor, bad things were bound to happen.

I find your comments puzzling. On the one hand you acknowledge that gasoline is a global commodity, and on the other you blame the current administration for inflation.

When there is worldwide inflation like is going on now, it is difficult to avoid in any country that is involved in the global economy. Gasoline is not the only thing that is part of the global economy--so are many goods.

Everything is relative--and the fact that United States is fairing better than almost every other country in the world with regards to inflation does matter.

Not to derail it completely, but if anyone has ever spent time in Sacramento, the locally-grown food available up there is incredible. My daughter was at UC Davis so I went up there a few times a year, and even the local markets had produce like I've never seen before, even in SoCal. Best fish prep I ever had was a locally caught trout with local seasonal veggies at a place in Sac'to called Grange Restaurant. Kona ia also incredible for fresh stuff. Before I went there the first time, everyone warned me of the high cost of groceries. Not on the local stuff. Besides the farmers markets, I got fish right out of the water an ten bucks a # for sushi-grade stuff, and locally grown grass-fed beef was cheaper than in LA. We ate like kings every night for the price of Mickey D's in a big city.

You may now resume the political bitch-slapping fight.

Robert, I don't see how you can be in the hole if you have been investing in broad-based mutual funds. Here's how the S&P 500 has done over the time frame you mention. Soryy that my copy-and-paste effort didn't turn out well. The annual % change is the far right column.

S&P 500 Index - Historical Annual Data

Year Average
Closing Year Open Year High Year Low Year Close Annual
Price % Change
2023 4,234.16 3,824.14 4,588.96 3,808.10 4,495.70 17.09%
2022 4,097.49 4,796.56 4,796.56 3,577.03 3,839.50 -19.44%
2021 4,273.41 3,700.65 4,793.06 3,700.65 4,766.18 26.89%
2020 3,217.86 3,257.85 3,756.07 2,237.40 3,756.07 16.26%
2019 2,913.36 2,510.03 3,240.02 2,447.89 3,230.78 28.88%

Haven't read the whole thread, so maybe someone else addressed this but....home ownership rates are slightly above historical norms. It is a myth that everyone has always been able to own a home.

And I'd suggest everyone on here, that has disposable income to collect sports cards, can own a home somewhere decent in the USA. US Home prices have mostly tracked inflation save for 2020 to 2022, and those gains are about to be give all back.

So ya, you have the exact same opportunity to own a home in the USA as the generation previous. In fact the low interest rate policy of the past 12 years made homes accessible for people that frankly didn't have the income to own a home. But also drove up prices.

Wages are also growing.

That means squat when everything costs quadruple.

Wages and inflation are both measured since the beginning of 2020:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-inflation-us/

Spoiler alert, wages have outpaced inflation.

Somewhat paradoxically, we all should root for a gigantic bear market during our working years, followed by a raging bull market when we retire.

The general idea is to allow us to buy lots of stocks on the cheap while we're in acquisition mode, and then they all pop right before we retire, and we slowly liquidate during the bull market, getting top dollar for our investments.

So maybe we can all be thankful that the market was down for a bit to allow us to buy some more on the cheap?

Imagine a game of deal or no deal. You have little money cases. You have big money cases. Let's say Russia and USA are in the top 5 as far as case values...would you agree?? The current administration bragged about doing away with fossil fuels. They have been hamstrung on every opportunity and fitted with cement shoes....on day one, mind you. So our case is off the board. Now Russia's case is off the board due to their war with Ukraine. That is TWO big money cases no longer participating due to being "off the board".........I am trying to make this as an analogy that is easy to understand as to why we are experiencing worldwide inflation. Gas affects us more than you know.......I wish he had gone after cigarettes with the same gusto instead of fossil fuels.

You seem to be under the impression that the US' production of gasoline has cratered. This is simply not the case, with the exception of the first few months of the pandemic when demand sharply reduced.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le...s=MGFUPUS2&f=M

I am saying that Biden has restricted our oil output as much as humanly possible. He cancelled pipelines. Cut off drilling on federal lands. Stopped lease sales. Depleted our reserve. You name it...he has done it......We lost our energy independence under him, which we just recently gained under the last guy.

Bobby this is not true.

https://apnews.com/article/alaska-wi...bffe771b7af574

As this article in Forbes from May points out, US energy independence has soared to its highest level in 70 years:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier...h=3dec8b1e977f

"The topic of U.S. energy independence often sparks debate, with many believing that the country achieved this status under President Trump and lost it during President Biden's tenure.
....
In conclusion, 2022 marked the highest level of US energy independence since before 1950. This milestone was achieved through a combination of factors, including the shale boom which led to a steady decline in net energy imports, rather than being solely attributed to any specific presidential administration."

Ok, went this afternoon, and wrote down some prices. I got a few, because obviously it can vary by product. Ans because comparisons are sometimes interesting
Fairly big local chain (Market basket) right on the line between a fairly affluent suburb and a not as well off city. Stop and shop across the street, so competition may affect the pricing a little.

Ground beef
Claim 11.99
Basic 4.49/lb
"fancy" angus 4.49/lb


2L Coke
Claim 3.75
Coke 3/5.00 = 1.67 each
Pepsi 2/4.00 = 2.00 each
Store brand .99 which is the same price the store brand was when I was in a convenience store IN 1983!
Some places including this grocery store sell he coke 20oz for way more, usually around 2.45.

Cereal
claim, no particular brand or type or size mentioned 6.79
Raisin Bran 3.99
Special K family size 4.99
Chex 2/6.00
Giant size frosted flakes 5.99
Those were typical by company, so every normal sized box by the same company as Raisin Bran was 3.99
Some of the fancy granola type stuff in smallish bags can get into the $6-7 range, but some of it is less.

Chips - here it almost gets interesting
Claimed 5.29
cape cod party size 4.99
ruffles 4.99
Lays 2/6.00
Utz 2/5.00
Store brand about like Utz, but much bigger bag.

Some are closeish, but the claimed prices seem wildly overpriced for almost everything.

Overall, the biggest bargain is the store brand soda, which hasn't increased in 40 years.

Either
Shop around a little, wherever is charging like that is very expensive.
OR
Don't get your pricing from Some blog or Fox or whoever that cherry picks from the most insane stores and most expensive format for each item to make some point. I mean, I once saw some sort of ham that was imported and well over $100/lb. I think it was made from unicorns or something. But I know that's not even close to a regular pound of ham, and wouldn't claim that ham is now $129.99/lb

I hear unicorn ham tastes like chicken :)

It probably does, but at over $100/lb I wasn't going to find out.

Unicorn tusks are illegal to own.
.

The economist I read says the new normal will likely not be 2% again. Economists will be happy with 3-4%. So we might now be back to normal.

Not being political, but Pres Trumps tax cuts and import/export war with China caused inflation before COVID. The trade war with China caused prices on clothing to soar even before the factories shut down. My mom, a quilter, was complaining about prices of cloth in 2018. Both economic policies had unintended consequences when paired with COVID and stimulus legislation.

Trumps replica across the pond, Liz Truss, tried to pass tax deductions in 2022 (while already mired in deep inflation) and lost her job after just 6 weeks.

The US is going to see a lot of belts tighten significantly after Christmas due to college loan payments restarting. Mine are $450/month, and I have fewer loans than the average college graduate. I also have an advanced degree. It's probably a good thing. Not sure if it will cause a recession.

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

The student loan thing is a good point. For several years, that was an extra $12K per year or so that I had to spend on luxuries like baseball cards, travel, and dining out. Mine have already restarted, and baseball cards are the first thing on the chopping block.

They really didn't. Inflation was caused by attacking our fossil fuel industry and spending money like a drunken sailor. Why are you blaming Trump for Biden's inlfation??? And then you preface it by saying, "Not being political but...."

Can you please elaborate on how the current administration has "attacked our fossil industry" with concrete evidence?

September 6, 2019

NEW CASTLE, N.H. (AP) — Joe Biden is looking voters in the eye and promising to “end fossil fuel.”

The former vice president and Democratic presidential candidate made the comment Friday after a New Hampshire environmental activist challenged him for accepting donations from the co-founder of liquified natural gas firm.

Biden denied the donor’s association to the fossil fuel industry before calling the young woman “kiddo” and taking her hand. He said, “I want you to look at my eyes. I guarantee you. I guarantee you. We’re going to end fossil fuel.”

Come on....seriously??? You never saw the video of him bragging about wanting to shut down our gas industry?? You never saw that big stack of executive orders he signed on day one?? You aren't privy to him cancelling oil and gas lease sales? Do you really want me to flood Net54 with all the actions he has taken to try to push his green agenda and force us all into electric vehicles?? Let's get back to cards......Cause we aren't going to agree on this.

The current administration wants to get re-elected. So they have to appease their base with lip service about ending fossil fuels. But what have they ACTUALLY done to eliminate fossil fuels?

You have already flooded Net54 with your political views, so I think the horse has left the barn on that one. Feel free to PM me if you wish to spare the board.

If Honus was here he'd say: "Oh, for f***'s sake, let's get back to cards!"

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...Wagner%201.jpg

Let's not get politikal! (Sic)


Yes, his T206 card was pulled because he was "against tobacco use"


---->1948 leaf Wagner has entered the chat

[QUOTE=cgjackson222;2389231]The current administration wants to get re-elected. So they have to appease their base with lip service about ending fossil fuels. But what have they ACTUALLY done to eliminate fossil fuels?

Well, here you go...

https://apnews.com/article/biden-bus...d9ae859841b74d

I think he was OK with bread, Ted.

Nobody cared about "carbs" back then

The Bacon, Egg and Cheese Indicator — October
Bodega owners — or bodegueros — said the price of a bacon, egg and cheese remains roughly stable. Although eggs are cheaper than they were last spring, bacon prices have stayed high or continued to climb, bodegueros said.

Their observations mirror food price reporting from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Daily prices for New York eggs were mostly flat from June through late October, hovering around $1.30 to $1.70 for extra large eggs. The weekly average cost of a pound of sliced bacon, however, jumped from $4.58 to $6.52 in the Northeast from early August to early November.