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I have no way of knowing whether the really high sales were legit or not. But I am quite confident that there were many, many people who bought into the bubble.
Prices were skyrocketing, the narrative was that VC and other investment money had entered the hobby. A huge glut of people seemed to join the hobby during COVID (can't that couldn't be spent on experiences was being spent on things, and gov handouts meant a lot of expendible cash in the market). With those factors and a crazy hype machine running, I believe that a ton of legit sales occurred with people buying into the hype, and in many cases, people spent money they did not have. Thankfully for me the areas I collect are niche enough that they didn't go through the volatility (which mostly seemed to hit more popular items). It sickens me how many people who were unaware got hit really hard, whether it was new collectors who had no reference point, or vintage collectors who value what they collect and believed that others were finally catching on, not realizing it was a bubble. |
This is an Excellent Post.... it will always be my "THEORY" that the real money was made on the under cards of lesser grade by the INVESTORS who drove up the prices on the key big star names in higher grades... were they all paid for?? were they not paid for ? Certain Auctions Per their rules can bid on their own items. The rules are clearly there for bidders to see if they fail to they're being ignorant to their terms. I digress.. MY THEORY and that's all it is, is that many were paid for in different way's/structures set up (vaults/Fee Structures/ Cards in Return Leverage Loans ect./ Investor privileges). I 99.9% believe the sales of most lower graded key examples as being legit...people wanted in on this. It was perfect.
People were paying ridiculous numbers for low-grade Ruths, Cobbs, Wagner's, Matthewson's, Jacksons, Mantles, Robinsons, May's, Rose RC, Sever Rookie... etc... all of these in lesser grades have come back down to earth. The highly desired pre-war and early Mantles less but go into the 50s and 60s take a look at all the key big stars in grades below 8 and they have come way back and are not done. Even in modern 7's and 8's of 86 Jordan's, 93 SP Jeter's, 80 Henderson's... The hobby turned a blind eye to my theory because let's face it many felt good hey they're semi-rich with these cards now wow what a great time....if you thought that it felt good real good so keep it going. So now here we all are .....it's all been very interesting to learn from. I love the depth and intellect of the members of this board. |
Sone good insight there, Johnny. I can give one specific example of my own that matches your theory exactly. Just after the Gretzky OPC rookie became the first ever million dollar hockey card, I went out and bought up three of my own except they were three 6’s instead of 10’s. Today, the value of those sits at around 50% of what I paid for them. And that’s Gretzky we’re talking about. Just about the same scenario with Bird/Magic in basketball at the PSA 6 level. Jim Brown RC is a good example in football, my three 6’s are all sitting around 50% in value from what I paid for them. Vintage baseball, too many to keep track of but I believe, not nearly the same percentage drop, although more than enough for sure.
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I consigned a card to one of the AH advertisers here at the height of the bubble that sold for nearly 200k. Today? Maybe $125k? There was a major run up in prices. Some were legit sales; and others prob were not.
I seem to have missed the government handouts. I didn't get a dime. Quote:
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"it's a victimless crime counselor(s)"
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If a government loan allowed my employer to send me my paycheck 2x a month, why would I be any more flush with cash? |
I don’t buy that argument either. I don’t think PPP payments made employers flush with cash. I received about 200K in PPP and lost about $1M in income in 2020 due to the courts being closed or much slower. No one who worked for me lost a penny in salary though or had to pay a penny towards their health insurance. I paid for it all. Maybe it was my employees who were driving up the card market?
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To the extent the pandemic played a role, I think it's that people did not have their usual recreation/entertainment outlets, not that 1K government checks to individuals added that much to the demand side.
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I am not saying it made a difference, and certainly not for a very expensive card, but there was a lot more stimulus than just the PPP....People were receiving much more than their jobs paid, to be doing nothing. Never understood how they should make more but it happened. Not getting political but our govt. needs to quit spending like a drunken sailor on payday. It's going to be a mess in the future, imo.
Back to the carrd at hand, that top sale should be investigated by LE.... . |
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In addition to the general sentiment about spending, a reminder that there were 3 rounds of direct payments to individuals/families, which you can read about here: https://home.treasury.gov/policy-iss...mpact-payments For some within my orbit with a handful of kids and whatnot, they received total direct payments from our generous friends in DC that ran well into 5 figures, all while continuing their jobs and continuing to get paid for their jobs. For many of us, I suspect we don't remember getting anything because we make too much. Or because it's been a hot minute and memories fade quickly at our age. On the other side of the ledger, there were student loan payment pauses that just barely ended (last month, if memory serves). Plus some people stopped paying rent or their mortgage because those were also paused in many states. Add it all up and it's a lot of extra cash for fun stuff, with relatively few fun options outside of letting it ride on crypto and the equity markets, or buying more cardboard. |
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Guess you missed at least one poster on here who was gloating about it. One of our counselors |
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I presume this has already been pointed out, but the whole market's down about 50%. Nothing special going on with the Mantle.
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The SGC 7 Heritage Mantle was at 260 (before BP), then a reserve was posted at 320. Last night they lowered the reserve to 280.
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My guess would be
Consign the card with an easy 5% back to consignor if not more maybe even 10-15% based on the Auction House Friend buys the card and consignor pays them the full amount only losing a portion of the BP/ covers their loss Rinse and repeat until someone overpays ..eventually getting more (last year or so) Pump up others of similar grade or close to it to dollar cost average |
Sell it on Myslabs
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52 topps Mantle SGC 7 at heritage has met the reserve and currently at $336,000 with buyers premium.
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It’s a very pretty example, and a great comp for 52 Topps Mantle owners (I don’t own one) |
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52 Topps Mick remains President of (card)Board. PSA 1.5 in same auction is over $31K, currently within approx 10% of a nicer SGC 1.5 that sold for nearly $35K in Feb.
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52 topps mantle is like the S&P 500, over a 10 year period it will be worth a lot more than now.
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Anyone know any the Mantle SGC 7 cert number changed?
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52 topps mantle SGC 7 sold for $372,000 heritage auctions tonight.
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The card is simply amazing with so many out there but the demand seems to be endless
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They’re coming back to earth..ended last night by our favorite....j/k
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The SGC 7 52 Mantle sold last night for $372K. Still pretty strong.
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I'm going to revisit this in 10 years |
In Q3 2017, PSA Authentic sold for approx $6K, in Q3 2018 PSA 1s sold for approx $9-$10K. So if the next 10 years mirrors the prior 10, and the decades of growth since the 80s, it’ll continue to be a solid investment and simply a joy to own no matter where it trends.
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52 Topps Mick PSA 1.5 sells for nearly $35K in HA last night. Same price as in Feb this year. Apparently no lack of demand or premium for Mick’s 52 Topps, despite overall downward trend in collectibles and cards. Happy to see the sky isn’t completely falling.
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