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well....
Yes Snowman that would make me a nay.
You state "The only thing I care about is eye appeal." OK but isn't the sticker then just confirming for you your own thoughts? You had these thoughts already when procuring the cards - believed you could ferret out an under graded card that at least theoretically was under valued. Instead of paying for that I might prefer another route - like sharing the enjoyment with like minded people who understand the nuances. Admittedly in their daily lives people pay all the time for the "yes you're right" response. Now you have a card with FOUR people involved in it's authenticity and appeal - you, the original grading company, the new company, and finally the person or people that eventually get to see the card or possible buy it at a price that might exceed whatever the current cost basis is for a particular grade of a graded card. I never should have gone down this rabbit hole before having coffee.... |
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Yes, anyone can look at the card and determine that it looks nice on their own. No sticker needed. But the same is true for grading in general. Anyone can look at a card in a 3 holder and see that it's in VG condition without needing the slab. Same is true with NM cards. And buyers are fully capable of placing higher value on better conditioned cards without slabs. Just look at Greg Morris's raw card sales on eBay. The raw card market appears to account for condition just fine on its own. Yet, we still have grading companies and the market has made it clear that it values their opinions. More so than just the card's appearance on its own merit. A NM-MT raw card sells for a fraction of what that exact same card sells for if it's sitting inside of a PSA 8 slab. The same is true of MBA Gold Diamond stickers. The market values them. It values them more than just the card itself. You may not like it. You may think those who place value on such things are [insert your favorite insult here], but the fact remains; it still adds value. Value in excess of what nice centering/eye appeal would otherwise add to a card on its own. Quote:
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By the way, if Baker kept 22 of your cards when he failed in his attempt to reinvigorate GAI, you might feel differently about his reputation. |
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And thank you...I figured his "models", which he has for every single thread he posts on, are utter BS that most of us could not refute but he uses them all in an effort to disarm his adversaries. |
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I'm a professional statistician/data scientist. Building models like this is what I do for work every day. The primary work of a statistician is to perform hypothesis tests using data and mathematics. Just because you don't understand how it works doesn't mean that it in fact does not work. This isn't a difficult problem to understand or to solve for. If you want to know whether or not an MBA sticker has a statistically significant impact on selling prices, then all you have to do is gather enough data (a few hundred sales is more than sufficient) and build a statistical model to perform any number of hypothesis tests. You can control for other variables by including them in the model. Variables you might want to control for could be: Which grading company graded the card, the grade of the card, which card it is, centering, pop count, sticker or no sticker, date of sale, a market index to tether to the date, and numerous other things you might want to track like stains, creases, focus/registration, etc. Then you can just build a simple (or complex if you want) regression model or an ANOVA/ANCOVA model, or some machine learning models, or a multilevel mixed effects model, or whatever other model you want to build that tests hypotheses. This is pretty elementary stuff in the world of statistics. It's really not that complicated. Models will estimate the impact of each variable included in the model, and it will also output a P-value that informs you whether or not that impact is statistically significant (the more sales data you have in your model, the more power the model has in determining statistical significance). But I'm sure you know all this stuff because you worked "with" the Bureau of Labor Statistics lol. |
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My question lies on this, after listing a plethora of variables needing analysis you state “a few hundred sales is more than sufficient”. Seems it would not be as that group of a few hundred may contain single examples of many of those items, two, or be excluded completely as it is being culled from many areas used by new or less informed collectors such as PWCC and eBay and has no access to private sales. The idea that this is a statistical fact requires a large leap of faith and should not cause some stone wall statements of hyperbole touting the need for this. I’ll let you enjoy the service, my personal opinion is that the cards you used as examples were well graded based on the chipping and corner wear. Yes, some other areas were exceeding but the grades are a sum of the parts. If the sticker makes you pleased and happier as a collector then please do. I consider these services snipe hunts and it’s not changing. I do not believe in a hobby that has no real price stability and changes daily that a market of constant end value flux can be measurable without faith. So after all that time wasted in my ramblings… do what you want for yourself but please understand the sales pitch is not going to have any true impact. You are a corvette salesman pulling over an Amish buggy to make a sale. It’s not going to be easy. |
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If the sticker enhances sale value that only says to me the market is gimmick-oriented and misinformed. As a collector, MB's opinion as to eye appeal doesn't mean anything to me, even assuming he is being completely candid in his assessments and not doing favors for cronies. But it's a weird service to me. At least with PWCC you aren't paying them extra for their assessment and in theory they are reviewing their whole spectrum of cards and sticker only a small percentage. Here, sending cards and money to MB is only well spent if he stickers a high enough percentage of what you submit. What's MB's incentive to grade harshly? He'll dry up his own business.
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I cannot speak to Mike's reputation but have heard good and bad however our snowman states the following: Quote:
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Ok so we get that you need more than just another collector telling you your card is sweet. You need something more tangible to be convinced. Why is that so important if these cards he is certing are just for your PC? Then why keep presenting arguments about increased value if the cards are not for sale? |
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https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...&postcount=880 So much for trophies! |
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As far as your concerns about the limitations of modeling goes, you would need to have a sufficient number of examples of cards for each variable you're instead in evaluating in the model. So if you want to understand the impact that something like tape stains has on sale prices, you'll need to have a sufficient number of cards with tape stains in your data set. How many cards that number needs to be in order to be "sufficient" depends on how large of an effect it has. If that feature is something that nearly doubles the value of a card, then you might only need like 20 or 30 examples in your dataset that have this quality. However, if it's something that only adds or subtracts say 5% to the value of a card, then you'll need a lot more examples in your dataset in order to demonstrate that the effect is statistically significant. If you only have a few cards with tape stains in your dataset, then you won't be able to say anything about its impact regardless of how many total cards are in the model. Also, you should probably just exclude those few cards from your dataset if that's the case because you'd be introducing unnecessary variance to the model, and the whole point of building a model to begin with is to explain the variance in the sale prices. |
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I didn't watch this video, but in general, I think it's funny that anyone in this hobby finds it even remotely dishonest for someone to resubmit a card for grading when it was previously rejected for being "trimmed", absent any actual evidence that it indeed has been. The irony is that it's always the exact same people who complain about PSA's incompetence that cast these judgements, as if PSA's incompetency could only possibly apply to one particular vector in a hyperspace of all possible ways a grading company could fuck up. I've had cards that I pulled myself straight from packs get rejected for "trimming" and vintage cards that I've had since childhood get rejected for trimming as well. Of course, none of them had actually been trimmed. I have a Jackie Robinson card that I bought from a guy who pulled it from a pack in 1955 and who kept it in a shoebox ever since. He was an octogenarian gentleman who didn't know anything about grading cards, but he decided to sell his collection so that his kids wouldn't have to do it after he's gone. Someone told him he needed to have his cards graded if he wanted to get fair market value for them, so he sent them off to PSA. The Jackie card got rejected for "trimming". He didn't understand why. He knew the card had been in his possession for the entirety of its existence and that it had certainly never been trimmed. So he sent it in again. Again, it came back "trimmed". He was devastated and furious. He disclosed the full story to me before I bought the card. He even gave me both of the rejected flips. I examined the card closely and just laughed. There was zero evidence of trimming. I bought the card and submitted it for grading. It came back in a 5 holder like it should have the first time. |
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Conveniently, Lemming's Law is also commutative: "gap = trimmed" and "trimmed = gap". |
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And to your other point, we might agree for the first time which is a statistical impossibility. If you or I were to send in the same card 5 times to PSA there is a very good chance we would end up with at least 3 different results in grading. That someone resubmits a card that was rejected that they in good faith disagree with, I totally support. Nat does not agree with that decision based on his interviews but they get it wrong far too often. |
Long before there were even PWCC eye appeal stickers, cards with exceptional eye appeal for their grades would perform accordingly at auction. All it took were savvy, experienced collectors' eyes to be laid upon the cards, and the deserved fireworks would ensue. I know this because I was involved in many of those auctions. At that time, it's interesting to note that whenever such a card broke out of the then-sacrosanct VCP grids, some guys, I like to call them grade-queens who worship the sticker number, would lose their sh!+, wondering why on earth a 2 just sold like a 4, who were these morons that would bid up a 2 when they could get a 4, or a 6 when they could buy an 8, and so on. Others would get it. Different camps, whatever, the usual conflict and beef that breaks out among card people.
Then along came PWCC with their stickers, hanging lanterns on the sweeter-looking cards (in many cases also doctored cards from their big submitters, as we'd all later learn). Now, because so many people out there are insecure in their own opinion and eye, they start saying, "Well, if PWCC says this card is better than others in its grade or special, now, okay, I want it." So premiums for eye appeal become more commonplace, more mainstream perhaps one could say. That's all this Baker diamond thing is, same as the PWCC stickers. The reason I spit on it is because it reeks to me of needing affirmation. If one's eye tells them a card is sweet, it's sweet. Then pay accordingly, because it's the specimen you want to enjoy looking at in your collection every day. Not because some random dude slapped some tiny sticker on the slab. It's like if one got an A on an exam, doesn't the A suffice? Does one need a little puffy sticker from the teacher's assistant next to the A to make one feel better? Or if a guy went 4-4 at the plate, does he need some kind of extra affirmation from the coach or fans or his nana? You went 4-4. You know you did. In the same vein, we know if a card is pretty. We know if it's focused, centered, etc. Our eyes tell us that. So I don't get why we'd ever need a sticker from some random dude to tell us what our own two eyes know is a fact like the sun is in the sky. And then to PAY for that affirmation? Makes zero sense to me. Maybe if I didn't get enough love as a kid I'd go for it, I don't know. What I do know is I'll take my eye for free over paying for Baker's. And I'll bet a card I deem high end will sell for the same with no sticker as the same card with Baker's sticker. |
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Many modern cards though are die cut and should all be the same size. What will eventually become a problem with some sets is that they're partly die cut and knife cut on the same card. If I didn't have a stack I bought in packs I'd think most of the cards in any A+G set are trimmed. I don't know enough about that basketball card, but if that set is die cut and is accurate at 2.5x3.5 for that card any smaller should be EOT. We'd also have to assume the bumpers in a Beckett case are accurate at that size as well. |
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For reasons I may never understand, I decided to give the video a listen while I was getting some work done... This is a classic example of the type of content that drove me nuts over at Blowhard. Here I was thinking from the clickbait/screenshot that this hobby hero blogger had uncovered another major scandal! He buries some "card trimmer" who supposedly submitted a card he knew was trimmed to PSA 4 times, then decided to try BGS and they slabbed it for him. Then he sent it to Mike Baker to get a gold diamond sticker to try to further hide his crimes. Then he is "associated with PWCC" and tries to sell the card through them, but PWCC gets informed that this card is "TRIMMED"!, as does Beckett. Then Beckett supposedly decertifies the card because they are informed of PSA's evidence of it being trimmed [lol]. Then PWCC supposedly removes the card from their sales history because it was either shill bid or they wanted to hide their crime from the "ongoing" FBI investigation. Of course, however, this is ALL NONSENSE. Here's what ACTUALLY happened... This guy bought the Kobe Bryant card already in it's BGS 9.5++ holder with the Gold Diamond sticker on it. He thought it would/should cross to a PSA 10, so he tried to send it in as a crossover. PSA rejected it for "evidence of trimming". His dumbass then supposedly tries to send it in AGAIN as a crossover IN THE SAME SLAB WITH THE SAME SERIAL NUMBER to PSA because he's an idiot who doesn't realize that PSA asks for the serial number in the crossover submission form for a reason. They enter that number into their system and log the results. If someone submits that same card again with the same serial number, instead of doing the honest thing by informing the customer that they've already looked at the card and rejected it, they just take your money and the card and then send it right back to you with the same reason for rejection. That card never even makes it to a grader's desk the next time it gets sent in. This card probably hasn't even been trimmed. This "trimmed card" opinion is from ONE GUY (probably one of those near-minimum wage teenage graders) from PSA who looked at a card in a competitor's slab and said, "it's trimmed" despite it having passed both BGS's and Mike Baker's eyes. That "trimmed" tag is then forever associated with that serial number in PSA's database. The owner of the card, now surely furious as he's basically just been ripped off by PSA multiple times, decides to sell the card. He lists it with PWCC, not because of anything whatsoever to do with some trimming scandal of which this card does not apply, but because it's probably the best marketplace to sell a high-end Kobe RC on (despite the lemmings saying otherwise). Meanwhile, the guy making this video claims that the card's cert was taken down by BGS. He even shows himself logging in to their website and entering the serial number only to have it say "No match found"! "AHA!" he declares. "See, I told you so!". Nevermind the fact that he's looking it up on the BAS lookup site, and not the one for BGS lol. I checked the cert number myself. It's still there. The card is not tainted. He also claims that PWCC purged the sale from their records. Again, not true. I looked that up too, and it's right there on their website. Sold for $120k. This is entirely a nothing burger. There is zero evidence of anything even remotely shady about this card. It's just a Kobe RC that PSA rejected as a crossover. Happens every day. But these conspiracy theorist lemmings over at Blowhard are just all over this type of nonsense all day long. It's absolutely insane. The real crime here is that this card is going to keep getting passed around from one person to the next and every single buyer is going to send it in to PSA expecting it to cross over to a PSA 10 because it is a BGS 9.5 "true gem plus plus" with a 10 subgrade for corners and a 10 subgrade for edges, and it has an MBA Gold Diamond sticker on it. But since one random guy at PSA thought it might be trimmed (despite the fact that the card is in a BGS slab with inner sleeve that PSA themselves admits they just can't see through well enough to accurately asses the card), it gets forever tainted in their database. But meanwhile, PSA will just keep taking everyone's money on this card over and over and over (to the tune of $5,000 a pop), handing out the same (and quite possibly bullshit) rejection reason. Here are screenshots of the record of the sale at PWCC and proof that the cert is still valid at BGS. |
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Damn. Well done. Good write up, good read. Just goes to show, we all gotta buy the card and not put stock in what the stickers say one way or the other. |
Sticker Guy
Wow, your many lengthy replies addressing the slightest question of the value of these ill reputed stickers shows a deep insecurity. Now I understand why you are a sticker guy!
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It certainly sucks for the individual when they reject a good card, but I am guessing those mistakes are infinitesimal compared to the number of bad cards they've graded.
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Again, I fully realize this is crazy. Hence my posts. Though I do find it interesting that the market does appear to place a value on the stickers that the data appears to suggest is in addition to centering alone. I think people interpret them as "this card is undergraded" and likely bid with the hope of cracking it out for a grade bump in mind. And to be fair, they probably succeed at a higher rate than they would with cards that don't have the stickers. But overall, I'm very much in agreement with you. Buy the card, not the slab. And yes, these stickers are dumb. But what can I say, I like dumb shit sometimes. |
Hey man, if you dig'em, you dig'em, and enjoy. The cards you showed are all great-looking and I'm sure all collectors would agree they are. My friendly advice as a fellow collector would be just save your money and the risk of shipping them and just make your own; you clearly have a good eye so your sticker would be no different than the one that costs you money is all!
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The bumpers in the Beckett case are just heat pressed into the inner sleeve. They are adjustable based on the size of the card, though perhaps they usually just keep it set at a standard size for most cards? I don't know. |
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FWIW, I don't like the PWCC stickers. Nor do I like the Silver Diamond MBA stickers. I only like the Gold Diamond stickers lol. |
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Here's a fun card from this weekend's auctions that I know you'll appreciate MattyC.
I've been looking for a nice Roberto Clemente in a 4 or 5 holder to go with my 1955 Topps set. There were a few on auction this weekend that I was interested in. They usually sell for between $3500 to $4000 as a 4 (though it has been trending upward). The one I was most interested in was well-centered at Heritage. It ended on Saturday with a hammer price of $5760. I was the underbidder and I gave up at that point. I ended up settling on the one I liked 2nd most for another SGC 4 that sold on PWCC last night. It's centering isn't ideal, but it's still better than most 55 Topps cards (as most know, these are notoriously difficult to find well centered). Here are the two cards that sold this weekend. $5760 for the centered one on Heritage, $3600 for the off-center one on PWCC. I won it for nearly half the price, but I'm still not happy about it and will eventually look to upgrade it. But it will do for now. I bet Mike Baker would slap a Gold sticker on that Heritage copy! Hahaha |
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Despite all of the technical aids and cross-referencing employed by the TPGers, grading still remains the subjective final decision by the grader. Human nature will always play a role with the exception of Superman, Jesus and perhaps Karl Marx.
Travis, could you provide a scan of one of your PSA graded cards in your PC with a Baker good housekeeping seal of approval. I have never seen one and am curious after this cogent discussion on a polemic subject. Tks. John |
Oh well… He knows cards, but is 15 years away from being relevant and ruined His reputation at GAI then GA. Many collectors never got their cards back as a result of his and his partner’s actions. First hand information.
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RE; The PSA 6 Gretsky..."Looks Like a strong SGC 4.5-5 to me". That should be in the title, IMHO. Baker is a taint. |
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Just curious if that was a card you submitted to PSA, if you care to answer. |
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Border chipping, weak BR corner, and the Oil Drop is somewhat askew. It's a 6 in many people's views. Not the first (or last) time the submitter believes the card is undergraded. Nice eye appeal, but technically accurate. |
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I find it very hard to believe that an MBA sticker would add market value to a card
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I don't think anywhere near enough study has been done on die cut sets. I only noticed the Old Judges because once you get a stack of them there are groups of obviously different edges. The nice thing is that the die cut mats will always cut the same size, unless they get damaged. If there's only one mat, and that one always cuts the lower left card 1/64th short, then every lower left card will be 1/64 short. |
I regularly disagree with Snowman, but there's nothing errant with having a resident board contrarian. Echo chambers and groupthink aren't healthy, so it's good to have counterviewpoints.
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That being said, I would much rather have a "Snowman" sticker on my card from an Anal Eddie, than that well known criminal piece Sh** like Mike Baker. The "Snowman" holds much more street cred. That's the god honest truth. Have a little faith in yourself. Go find some slabs with PWCC stickers and purple stickers. Then, put a Mike Baker and Snowman sticker on it. Have you ever thought of that? They have to be PSA though and they have to POP so you can add all 4 stickers to the registry. That's what I would do if I were you and only collect those. 4 stickers for every bush! |
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I see a lot of talk about Baker and his MBA business. Well, I can tell you first hand he has a massive presence in MSP MN and is sold by Triple Diamond Sports Cards and Gold Bar Breaks. When I flipped over one of their cards and seen Bakers name I asked if it was the same Baker from GAI. Apparently the guys didn't know the history or the background behind it. I said do your due diligence and find out. Either that or they know and play stupid to save face at a card show. I did buy a RC Auto I had been chasing for a while and the sticker that it had was absolute bullsh!t in comparison to condition. I paid full comp based on condition and removed that sticker as soon as I left the shop. The whole show is equivalent to BCCG grading where your 6's are 10's all day. Reminds me of Desert Queens:D:D Looks like a 10 till the plane lands stateside. Not going to lie, I was hoping this was not the same person that had a very conflicting past. I will say that if you are buying new unopened hobby boxes then go for it.
Seriously if you have an under graded card then have it regraded. Relying on a known scammer(s) to verify a better grade for you by affixing a sticker to a card slab promotes theft and scams rather than deter them. Plus if these guys are so good at grading then WTF have they not started a grading service of their own? Can't due it because they have no unique business model or clout in the industry. We will add a holographic sticker to any card for $5 a card all inclusive. We can do 1000+ a day if you need and bulk subs are accepted but we won't really return your cards for months and months when we have really no reason to keep them setting there other than pure laziness. Shipping is always same day service with max insurance and at least 4 add ons that require you to be there in person at exactly 10:23 am GMT the day of shipping or days following till it is delivered. If we miss you in person the package is sent back and we recharge you continually to ship it till you give up or get fired from work for missing days. All stickers will have a unique qr code or serial # to access a blank and never updated registry. We also promise to never tell you what is seen that makes your card better or worse. Please contact me though email because we don't answer the phone due to possible liabilities. If we happen to close down due to heat and pressure from the hobby we won't be sending the cards back for liability reasons unless you pay for the service and fees. If your patient we will reopen in a few years and continue with our business under a different name. You can sub for review then. |
Travis, you obviously have a keen eye for the qualities necessary for a card to be added to your collection. At the end of the day, you are the property owner and can damn well do whatever you want with the card. If a Mike Baker sticker makes you feel better and more confident about certain cards in your portfolio, then why not pay for that sticker and be happy.
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I'm against silencing anyone on this board for just voicing his opinion. Freedom of Speech is Still Fundamental in America.
Who Seconds that? |
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I NEED NO MORE PROOF THAN THAT OF WHAT SNOWMAN POSTED IN SUPPORT OF CONTINUED FRAUD IN HIS OWN WORDS AND OPINIONS. |
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