I knew there was something I liked about you Ryan :D

I buy a mix of it all in baseball. In 21st century cards,, I'm only buying established stars, and packs at MSRP. I'm not going to feed the flippers or obsess over PSA 10s (no graded cards for me). If I can get a few hot rookies for $5 or under, sure. I'm not paying big prices for 18 year olds. Too many sure things weren't. Collect what you enjoy, and don't try to invest long-term.

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Great point.

I've been in the market for a 1957 Topps Unitas RC in the PSA/SGC 7 range, and noticed that their auctions prices have practically doubled in less than 6-8 months. Approx $1200 to $2400+

Is this "new money"? Were they originally very undervalued? Will these soften 20-25% or so?

I'm very curious.

I am sure that some of the runs on marquee cards were manipulated by clever shillers and touts. Those gains won't hold. Many of the other price increases are genuine and will hold to some extent. For those here who aren't hobby old farts, just remember that this is not the first time prices have surged and fallen back. There were eras (late 1970s, early 1990s, mid 2000s) where prices on vintage and established stars went up then down. Usually the 'down' does not fall all the way back to the previous lows and stay there. Absent a black swan event, anyone looking for a 2010-era pricing structure on vintage cards to emerge and hold is likely to be disappointed.

What is different now than in say 1989 is data flow. Owing to social media and eBay, the speed of the rises and falls has increased, as has the prompt widespread understanding that something is going on. Pre-'net you could take advantage of all sorts of information deficits, like buying Yankees in Los Angeles and selling them in New York; now anyone can just look up the item online and get an idea of what it is worth in seconds.

One other factor that will stabilize prices is that people often will hold a card as it declines rather than sell into a price decline because they do not want to admit to the loss; as long as they hold the card they can tell themselves that it may make money eventually. Dealers do this too. I've had repeated conversations with other collectors about how some dealers frustratingly will keep cards at overpriced levels for years in their eBay stores rather than take a smaller gain and move on to the next deal. Excluding extreme rarities where it can make sense to hold out for a huge payday from a collector who wants the item and cannot find it elsewhere, a rational seller would liquidate stale inventory and reinvest the proceeds in new inventory, because moving money in and out of deals is more lucrative in the long run than tying it up in slow moving inventory that earns nothing as it sits.

I think the only place where there is a 'bubble' is the high end modern cards, Trout, etc. those are people with too much money and nothing better to do. that behavior seems similar to stock market behavior.

I don't see the same issue for most other cards. There are a lot of new collectors drawn back to the hobby who did not have money 30 years ago to buy expensive cards.. I think they are here to stay. Why shouldn't a Jordan rookie go for $25k?

For me, I don't see much risk paying $300 for a reasonable Hank Aaron that was $200 a year ago. Same with Mantle, Mays, HOfers, etc. I'll never sell. So I'll keep buying.

Too Buy
 

The temptation to sell was too strong for me I unloaded my basketball rookies Alcindor, Chamberlin and West and glad I did I can't see them going up any more. I am already seeing them going back down. I think this is the only time I have ever come out ahead in the card market.

"I think the only place where there is a 'bubble' is the high end modern cards, Trout, etc."

"The temptation to sell was too strong for me I unloaded my basketball rookies Alcindor, Chamberlin and West and glad I did I can't see them going up any more. I am already seeing them going back down."

The latter is being proven by the evidence. I sold a bunch of stuff into the rising market and am waiting for the downdraft to go a bit lower to replace them. Way I see it is that someone rented my cards for a little while.

Love to see these long time basketball collectors sell into the upswing and make big bucks! You guys deserve it. Basketball was under appreciated for a long time (save Jordan RC's). Just bought my first basketball card couple weeks back. Wish I had started years ago.

Not sure this is evidence of anything other than rising prices - does not make it a bubble. I do not think the collectors who jumped in because of COVID are leaving. I never bought a basketball or hockey card in my life until June. Given, I am not buying any bball/hockey north of $100, but I am not going to leave collecting when we get a vaccine. I think most of the new money in the hobby is coming from people like me. The people paying $100s of thousands for Trouts are a different breed - they are traders, and will be on to the next thing at some point.

I completely agree with this sentiment. Every Cobb, Gehrig, Ruth, Mays, Mantle, etc. I ever bought I "paid too much for", and everyone of them looks like a steal now. Except that Frank Campos black star.

"Anyone hesitant to buy now?"
I hope not because I am listing another 90 T206's on the bay this month. :D

Well yeah, actually it does. Prices going up very fast then falling is literally the definition of a price bubble inflating and deflating.

A bubble on certain cards and increased interest are not mutually exclusive. I think a price bubble actually attracts new collectors. I hope people stay with other sports cards. Heck, as a young collector I always collected baseball, football, basketball and hockey cards. It wasn't until my adult years that it started to get too expensive to keep it up. I've gone back to it the last decade or so, I just stay away from slabs for all but the most expensive cards.

Basketball is an especially interesting one to get into because there were so few sets from 1950-1970. It is 'doable' for a new collector.

yes of course, but they have not deflated. Thats my point. for the reasons i stated, I don't think 70s basketball is the same as Trout, etc.., the buyers are real and are here to stay. As of now there is no evidence this is a bubble, just rising prices. Happy you sold your cards at a really high price, but assuming you are able to buy them back at half the price is simply speculation.

Stating that "the buyers are real and are here to stay" with no evidence whatsoever to verify such a claim, is speculation as well...

No, actually it is fact. Look at the thread in the basketball card section where several of us have been tracking prices on various cards. Major card after card is down substantially from the high prices of a month or two ago. The 1961 Fleer Wilt Chamberlain IA PSA 7 had three sales in August over $2,000 and a peak sale at nearly $3200. If I'd dumped my PSA 7 in August I could now repurchase it around $1200-$1500. In my book a 50% decline in a month after a quadrupling of prices in a few months is a deflating bubble. But let's toss out the $3200 sale as an outlier and go with the two $2;000+ sales from August. Still a 25%-40% drop after a steep rise (the card was a $400 card in April). The Dr. J RC went up to about $10,000 in PSA 8 and is now back down into the $4Ks. The thread cites card after card like that. Now, was basketball undervalued? Sure. But that doesn't diminish what we are seeing in the auction results.

then i stand corrected. had no idea prices have fallen by 50% in those cards. First I have heard of it, was not mentioned previously.

There are some good guys in the basketball section; might wanna check in over there.

It's a very interesting time. If basketball is on the downturn of its bubble, looks like soccer may be at its peak. Pele, Messi, Ronaldo cards are 10X or more of prices at the beginning of the year. Like all of this spike, you can't be sure what sales/auctions are actually paid for but a $10k to $120k jump in a few months is tough to miss. Gotta imagine those prices retract very soon as well.

Well, since I started this thread, I thought I would share my own experience. While I am hesitant to buy now, I have made a couple of purchases. Thanks to BST I picked up a nice low grade Red Cobb and mid grade 58 Mantle. I’d be interested in purchasing a low grade Ruth 144...only problem is I can’t find one for sale :)

And I’ve thoroughly enjoyed this thread. Thanks to all for the responses.

Adam

Ryan, T206 is selling quite well right now as witnessed by the frenzy of prices paid for 5's & HOF's in recent auctions. Is T206 safe from any bursting bubble in the card market? I've never seen T206 prices drop. I'm hoping, at worst, that if there is a correction in the card market, this great set is not affected much, if at all.

A PSA 10 Messi just sold for #138,000, a new record for a soccer card by far. I wonder what a Pele might fetch if you could find a 9 or 10.