Who wouldn't want a PSA 10 Dorian Gray rookie card?

One of the things you have to keep in perspective is that many cards just simply mirror the income distribution and their price is driven by basic supply and demand forces.

The most popular baseball card is the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle. A copy that has been run over by a car might still go for 10k and a PSA 10 would bring 10 million.

What this tells you is there is far too much demand for the number of copies that exist and then the cards are allocated across the income distribution and land in the hands of those who want them most. What motives they have to purchase are irrelevant and all that matters is if they can complete the transaction. Looking forward the hands they land in can certainly play a role in the long term prices but as long as collectors still covet the card it will hold fairly strong.

You are going to need to see a significant shift in the demand for the card for prices to come tumbling down significantly. Buyers just accept the fact that you buy one graded and that isn't going to change.

All of the reasons to want to own this historic baseball card still exist. It is still one of the ultimate symbols of Americana. He is still arguably the most popular baseball player ever. The 1952 Topps is still one of if not the most popular baseball card sets ever produced. All of these demand drivers create the environment where this is considered a prized collectible and so the animal spirits aren't going to go away and the rewards of ownership and the bragging rights associated still exist.

There are a lot of people who just simply hate grading and so they are always going to have an issue with graded cards but the overwhelming majority have accepted it as a principle of the card market.

I can remember it like it was yesterday going into a short lived card shop in the Fashion Square mall in Orlando during the home run chase and seeing the eye popping print of the 1985 Topps Mark McGwire going for $7,500 in a PSA 10 in the Beckett. As much as I wanted to think my copy was just as good it wasn't. It was obvious it wasn't. It looked nothing like a 10. It is hard to diminish the fact that it is quite frankly a better card and it is visible and the red flip reminds you of the fact that it is nicer than yours and when you go to look up the selling prices it sells for more than yours by a wide margin too every time.

All of this isn't going away. The movement to try and turn cards into assets and make them legitimate financial investments isn't going to stop. Brent in many ways just has taken the bull by the horns but there are clearly others under the surface trying to do the exact same thing.

As long as there is money that needs to find a home and humans are living collectibles of some form will be sought after and trading cards have a long history of collection and it is only natural with the supply constraints many have that prices have risen significantly.

There is never going to be an environment where a card like a Mantle isn't differentiated in price by grade and the spreads are going to stay very wide. Just the other day we saw the report of the Honus Wagner PSA 2 that was reported to have sold privately for 1.2 million. People take these cards seriously and when you have a market where people will pay these kinds of prices for relics of history this saga we are going through isn't going to change it.

You can't be serious...

Legendary continued on the elevated Mastro path for awhile, but as time went on their auctions became less impressive and seemed to have weaker results as a result of the cloud of suspicion of wrongdoing that surrounded the operation.

I figure the same will happen to PWCC...more and more collectors will lose confidence in their business, and their business will suffer, even if no criminal charges are levied upon them.

BrianP(arker)-beme

This will not happen. Any TPG that did something like that would then become complicit in perpetuating a fraud and put their officers at risk of criminal charges assuming that they detect alteration doing the review but say otherwise.

More likely is a strategy to minimize the number of reviews done by tactics such as:

1) directing people with items that are potentially tainted to 3rd parties that they have some leverage over such that the 3rd party provides refunds, the suspected/tainted itema are returned to the TPG for review and any item found to be tainted is destroyed. The benefit to the 3rd party is that they don’t find themselves the subjects of wire fraud and mail fraud investigations based on complaints and evidence coming from the TPG.

2) not providing an itemized “recall” list

3) giving reviews the lowest priority for service due to the high demand of backlogged orders

If we are using economic analysis, then I think its worth discussing whether PSA is "too big to fail" within the card collecting market. I think it is and that understanding that fact is the key to explaining why the top end of the market looks so stupid to the rest of us.

When economists use the phrase "too big to fail" they refer to an institution (like a bank) whose failure (bankruptcy) would be a disaster for the economy or a market as a whole. Because of its position, other actors will always step in to bail it out no matter how bad a situation it is in (like the US government bailout of Ford and GM a few years ago).

PSA is kind of in the same situation vis a vis the hobby - too many people with too much money are too invested in PSA (not directly as shareholders, but in a broader sense of owning and putting value in PSA graded cards) to let it disappear no matter how egregious a scandal it gets itself into.

The value of so many cards at the top end of the hobby is determined now more or less solely by the PSA number on the top of the stupid slabs they come in. If the brand were irreparably tarnished or the company went bankrupt (ending the registry, turning off the tap of newly graded PSA cards coming into the market, etc) then that would pose a serious financial threat to a lot of very financially powerful people within the hobby, who are all thus incentivized to prop PSA up by whatever means they have at their disposal and ensure that it survives whatever scandal it is going through at a given time point (in most cases all this requires is that they simply ignore the scandals and keep on buying PSA cards as if nothing was wrong).

Other grading companies aren't at anywhere near the same scale as PSA and would probably be allowed to fail since the value of top end cards in Beckett or SCG holders isn't anywhere near as tied to the holder as it is with PSA cards. Its sort of like PSA has a never ending supply of get out of jail free cards while its competitors don't.

Its a huge problem for the hobby IMHO.

If that's really the case, then I just want to be done. This money-fueled corruption is just too depressing. What a ridiculous hobby this has become, where unseen microscopic differences lead to outright fraud that commands tens of thousands of dollars.

Some probably thought Mastro was too big to fail as well. They were by far the #1 Auction House during their prolonged peak, but that came to a rather abrupt end. Perhaps not an apples-to-apples comparison, but there is at least some precedent.

I don't think Mastro,as an auction house, was in the same category as PSA, a grader in terms of a "too big to fail" analysis. If an auction house fails then collectors can pretty easily shift to another one to buy/sell high end cards, so it doesn't have the same positioning. There isn't a replacement for PSA, which draws most of its importance simply based on the fact that so many existing high end cards are in PSA holders (which no new entrant can hope to replicate) waiting in the wings like that.

An example might illustrate the point. If you've got a PSA 10 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle that you paid $500,000 for (or whatever they go for these days), what happens to the value of that if PSA goes under?

The difficulty is in separating the value of the card from the value of the PSA number attached to it. If PSA no longer exists, the PSA number isn't going to be worth as much because the trust (real or imagined) that it was based on no longer exists, and the infrastructure that supported it (the registry, etc) also no longer exists. So the value of that PSA number has nowhere to go but down (independent of the value of the card).

This wouldn't be a problem if the "PSA 10" (or 9, 8 etc) premium wasn't too big, but its now astronomical. A mere single step down that grade hierarchy can reduce a top end card's value by a factor of 10 or more, which is going to be tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in a lot of cases. Switching it from a PSA holder to an SCG one is likewise going to put a lot of money at risk, since the market doesn't value SCG as highly and its unlikely that they would be able to step in to replace a defunct PSA (in part because of the likely negative fallout towards graders in general from a PSA collapse).

So if you've got that PSA 10 1952 Mantle and you hear about a scandal involving PSA, you've got a huge incentive to ignore it and carry on as usual. And every other collector wealthy enough to have high end cards like that is playing the same game with the same incentives. All of them will collectively have millions, maybe hundreds of millions, to lose from a PSA collapse and nothing to gain. So their incentive, oddly enough, might be not just to carry on as usual, but even to double down on their PSA card investment.

Its why the top end of the hobby looks so stupid to those of us with more modest means. Wealthy card collectors are likely extremely paranoid about anything happening to PSA (I would be if I was one) because so much of the value of their own collections is now based on the stupid slabs their cards are in rather than the cards themselves. And they are the people with the resources available to keep the market winds blowing in PSAs favor no matter what the scandal.

Barry, I think there are a couple of categories of collectors here. First is the type that is on this board (and similar ones like blowout) who try to understand as much as possible about cards, including grading, alterations, shilling, etc. These folks can usually do a better job authenticating and grading cards than the TPG's can. Then there are the folks who just like to collect/invest in cards, and don't care about the other stuff. They know TPG's make mistakes, but don't care because they trust they can still do a better job than they can. For example, I'm not much of a handyman. If something breaks, I look on yelp for a service person with good reviews, and hire that person to fix that thing the broke. I could do the research myself on how to fix that thing, and learn how to fix it, so that I can save money and do it myself in the future. I'm just not interested in that stuff, and don't trust that I can fix it better than someone who does it for a living.


For people in the latter camp, I think that TPG's are still useful and better than them. And the other part of TPG's is the safety factor. Some people may not care about the grade actually, but just want the card holdered because it's less prone to being damaged that way. Or if they left the cards to a loved one in their will, that person will know those cards are worth something rather than 80s junk. So although I completely agree when the cards are really valuable, it's buyer beware for what's on the flip, I think that there are other things useful for TPGs rather than to just filtering out these frauds which are getting harder and harder to do.

I respectfully disagree PSA is too big to fail.

The value of a PSA slabbed card is not the slab, it is the card. Yes, I get it that a PSA slabbed card might sell for more than an SGC slabbed card, but assuming the card was properly evaluated, the asset still exists. In contrast, if a big car company fails, so many jobs both within the failed company as well as the companies that constitute that company's supply chain will be lost. People will be out of work, and communities will suffer greatly.

Bubbles built on fiction eventually burst. We saw that in the housing market where securitized mortgage prices built on vacant or grossly overpriced realty eventually fell to the level the value of the collateralized assets dictated they fall to.

IMO the value of high grade PSA slabbed vintage cards are similarly built on overpriced assets -- altered baseball cards that pass as unaltered. For this bubble to burst all that is needed is enough publicity to come out for it to be widespread knowledge OUTSIDE THIS BOARD that the majority (yes, I mean majority) of 8s, 9s and 10s are altered. What do you have then? Are you saying the private club of wealthy people who are invested in these cards will continue to sell them amongst themselves and that will sustain the prices? Don't you think at least some of them purchased the cards believing they were as advertised, and will not continue to purchase them as it nothing happened? And don't you think new people will be hesitant to join a club whose membership is predicated on purchasing altered baseball cards? And what about entities such as PWCC who look at cards as assets and are forerunners to major funds invested in such cards. I would think they would be taking one huge legal risk investing in such assets if it is general knowledge the assets are tainted. Should the fund collapse, I can only imagine the lawsuits that will follow, and the ensuing outcry for criminal accountability.

And let's talk about bragging rights. I display all my 9s and 10s in a display case prominently displayed in my home where my cocktail party guests can ooh and ahh at how great they are and how important I must be. Then one of my guests in a loud voice asks my opinion about that recent newspaper article claiming most of these cards are altered and worth a fraction of what they sold for. It sort of reminds me of that scene in the movie "Dave" where the fired chief of staff was gathered in his living room with his powerful friends to watch Dave deliver his speech to Congress. Then when Dave exposes who was behind the scam (the former chief of staff) and the camera returns to the guy's living room, all the high-powered guests have left and former chief of staff is sitting all alone with this shell-shocked look on his face.

IMO the sooner this bubble bursts the better. I'm not saying there will not be fallout and some wealthy (and powerful) people will not be hurt. But such people were hurt (a lot worse) when other bubbles burst, and the fact they were did not prevent those bubbles from bursting.

I've said this before and will repeat: I have no problem with a company that examines cards for alterations, and then assigns them an unbiased grade. The problem is the ones we have must do a much, much better job than they are now. They have to figure out a better way to catch these cards being submitted by card doctors. If not, then I have no faith in the product. End of story.

Maybe not in the vintage realm, but Beckett most certainly gets exponential growth curve value improvements on modern cards. You should read this thread:
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1297069

Hey, we are on the same page, I agree with you: it is a bubble and I have no problem with it bursting. By “too big to fail” I didn’t mean to literally say PSA can’t ever go under. I just meant that if you want to understand why it seems to defy gravity despite the constant scandals, complaints and sheer insanity of the market for 9s and 10s, you need to analyze its position in the market from that perspective. The wealthy end of the market has a lot invested in PSA stuff and a lot to lose if they go under. If a really massive scandal or other event breaks the spell, then of course they’ll cut their losses and jump ship. But short of that, they have tied their fortunes to the PSA bandwagon and are pretty incentivized to keep things the way they are, no matter how insane it looks to the rest of us.

If you invest in something it'll never be fun. Why is everyone worried about prices anyway? Aren't we all collectors? If your collection was suddenly worthless, would it keep you from buying more cards?

I don't disagree with what you said. The only twist I would put on it is that because IMO the bubble is built on a fiction (unaltered high grade slabbed cards), the bubble inevitably must burst. You are correct there are powerful forces incentivized to keep it going and to prevent it from bursting. And that could very well prolong how long it will take. But as we have seen with other bubbles, eventually the forces of fact will overcome the forces of fiction.

These 2 posts describe baseball card economics perfectly. It is fun to watch the pump and dump manipulation that goes on in the forums.

I think the hobby has reached the point where under current grading methods altered cards are almost impossible to distinguish from the unaltered ones. And I think to a skilled card doctor we might be talking about more than just the slightly altered. But, because IMO the technology exists to expose these alterations and in time it will be employed by TPGs, it could be very risky to buy the number on the slab if to hold value the card eventually will need to be re slabbed under the newer methods.

Only if they are held accountable for their 'mistakes'. Otherwise, BAU.

So if it is true that card doctors do work with such skill that it is basically undetectable, then it seems like there is no premium in having an original undoctored card. Because the card that is pack fresh Mint would be worth exactly the same as the altered Mint. Thus, I suggest that card doctors pick up their pace, and in no time at all every card in the collecting universe will be in Mint condition. Then we can all own the #1 set on the registry, all at the same time!

Now isn't that a thought! Alteration becomes essentially impossible to detect causing the supply of high grade vintage cards to soar, and their prices to fall. Or....technology comes to the rescue and such alteration becomes detectable. Under that scenario two things happen, provided that in order to hold value such cards need to be re slabbed under the newer method: 1. The supply of unaltered high grade vintage cards plummet and the true unaltered ones hold or rise in value. 2. The prices of altered ones (the majority) plummet in value.

What's really going to upset the apple cart is when we find out the Black Swamp Find was just Gary Moser's master's thesis project.

So I am back to my original premise: why isn't any of this information built into the price of Mint cards? If I'm a buyer and I know anything about what is going on with high grade cards, I'm moving forward with caution. But the current market plows ahead like a freight train.

How much of this is understood outside this Board? And even within this Board, there is disagreement how widespread the problem is. I've expressed my opinion. I've never said it reflects the majority view.

Just concerning the margins of error and subjectivity and flip of the coin of grades, I never understood it.

I think it's known beyond just this board. And collectors generally interact and talk about the hobby. Probably not everyone knows, but in no way is this some Net54 secret.

Barry, I am not sure the market is plowing ahead. Last night, a very pretty PSA 8, t206 Wajo pitching closed for under $19k - by recent comps, that should have been a $30k+ card. The e98 cobb psa 9 went “cheap” in my opinion, as did the t206 O’Hara polar bear PSA 5, the e105 Wagner PSA 5, the higher grades Lajoies (portrait and throwing), among other cards I was watching with interest. It seems the two cards that did not go cheap that I was watching, were the only two I bid on - the t206 brown Lenox and the t215-1. I think some prices from last night’s auction reflected the fear. Is that short lived? Probably. But I think many cards, especially mid-high grades that I was watching, went a bit cheap

That's interesting Ryan, but of course you need a larger sample to see if this is having any impact. I would have to think some collectors are being cautious, but agree that it might be short lived.

I’m not a graded card guy, so I’m not talking my book, but I see this having no long term negative impact on PSA. I think they will make some improvements and come out of the current situation stronger than they were. I also don’t think there will be a new grading company entering the field. Unless a new company could compete registry wise, it would be foolish to start. The registry drives everything.

I have to say ... the first second I heard about this find ... my immediate response was ... why on Earth would anyone believe this claim? I lived in Ohio. I've been in farm houses there. The change in humidity from summer to winter alone should have made folks skeptical.

Everything I was watching, either because I'm thinking about buying, selling, or just curious, has been plowing ahead. Jackson, Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, and Mantle all seem strong. 93 Jeter and Trout rookies seem to have gone up by 3-4x in the last couple of years. 48 Robinsons have also been strong.

A truly outstanding post.

I assume nearly all of the folks pouring big money into baseball cards are people (men, age 40-70) who are set for life financially (or think they are) and the $100,000 or $500,000 they are spending on a card isn't that huge of a deal all things considered. And they decide for some reason it would be really really cool to own a rare Babe Ruth card. They are going to get a rare Babe Ruth baseball card. It's not like there is some alternative place they can go to get a Babe Ruth card. So this is the sandbox they play in. They hold their nose, do a little research, and take a plunge.

If I decided tomorrow that my life would be complete if I owned a '67 red Camaro and I had the money to do it I would buy one. I doubt I'd be deterred by people pissing and and moaning on an Internet chat board. (I might even think it's a wonderful time to buy one because of all the pissing and moaning.)

You wouldn't be a little concerned if all that pissing and moaning was discussing the latest FBI counterfeit car sting operation that had just busted a ring manufacturing fake '67 red Camaro's, and that the last 11 sold were fakes?:eek:

I do agree with Steve that those who don't participate on this chat board probably do look at us as a bunch of whiners and complainers. However, among all that whining you can find a lot of useful information. And I would hate to think that all this talk about altered cards over the last couple of weeks is looked upon by the hobby at large as just a whole lot of nonsense.

The vast vast majority of cards in PSA (or SGC) holders are fine. Some doctored cards slipped by and that’s a problem. Hopefully, PSA will figure out a method to solve, or at least minimize the problem. I think one way to reduce this problem going forward is to prosecute the card doctorers. If a few of these scum bags goes to jail then the incentive for their shenanigans will be significantly lessened.

I might or I might not.

[More like some of the '67 Camaros have non original parts and are not identified as such.]

I hope changes come, but watching some high end cards on PWCC last night there didn't seem to be any shortage of interested buyers.

Folks, I believe that we are missing the elephant in the room here. The problem is not the trimmed/altered cards - after all, what remains is still an authentic card.

The problem is what are we, as a society, going to do about all those Moser trimmings piling up in some landfill? The industrial waste generated by trimming the edges of cards is going to be a huge problem. It's going to end up in the ocean, choking sea lions and filling the stomachs of whales.

We are on the verge of a natural disaster.

http://www.paper-vietnam.com/upload/...12-09-18_1.jpg

I agree. Don't alert PSA, alert Greenpeace.

Up until this recent scandal the time to sell has never been better !!

But think about all the jobs his waste is creating. You don't want to eliminate jobs do you?

Relic cards
 

This is not what has happened to the trimmings. Topps has struck a deal with PWCC and Moser and they will be issuing Heritage versions of the actual trimmed cards with a piece of the real card trimming. PSA is authenticating the scraps and trimmings as part of the deal, and JSA is verifying that the trimmings match the legendary card doctor's famous scissors.

Please stop spreading silly rumors like the one in the picture above.

Being well educated in one or more areas doesn't mean someone isn't uneducated or under educated in others - the problem is self realizing this!

Bottom line is - baseball card collectors "hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest"....

Rob M