Haha...I tell you...it's a conundrum. I DO believe there may be a few wealthy collectors who don't care what they spend on some high quality old cardboard...they just pay whatever it takes to get what they want...it's possible. But on Cy young/Walter Johnson portrait t206's...it just seems a little too convenient for me as a way to rationalize the running up of certain cards just as was done a few years ago with high grade 50's rookie cards by a "group" of people in the hobby.

The first post was quoting Brent. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

I don't have a theory yet, just on alert.

I can't say that i've followed this thread very closely, but wouldn't "Mr. Deep Pockets" be going for something better than a PSA 5. Why stop at 5 when money doesn't matter? I know i wouldn't stop at a PSA 5 if i had the dough. There's a decent pop over PSA 5.

First of all there can always be something nefarious going on as we have all seen so many times. But when I put my thinking cap on, for this card, it just doesn't seem like it would be one to try to corner the market on and raise all prices. As for why someone with all the money would stop at a 5 is because this 5 probably looks better than most 6s or 7s. I almost guarantee I would take it over most higher grade cards. Maybe the smart money bought the card they thought looked best and kept their other money for other cards?

Forget about cards Leon. Think of the hammer price of your thinking cap at auction. Where will you consign?

Nobody's trying to "corner the market" though. in 2016 those guys didn't control a significant percentage of the Clemente or Aaron rookies, they merely drove up the price indicators until people were willing to actually pay the inflated prices. then they dumped the cards they did have that they had been pretending to sell to each other. There's no way of knowing for sure if this Cy Young is the next wave of that kind of manipulation, but I certainly can't discount it.

Right. In a market like this where people rely heavily on historical prices, you just need to be able to manipulate the price, not control supply. In 2016 plenty of people started to panic and pay insane prices for cards fearing they would go even higher.

One of my favorites, a Koufax RC in an 8 for 80K. Right.

http://goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.as...entoryid=33087

Even more disturbing was the disingenuous writeup.

Koufax.

Be Prepared for Return on Investment.

Koufax rookies are among the hottest cards in the hobby today. Demand is outpacing supply on a consistent basis and the market has reacted. Prices at auction continue to escalate provided the condition is at the highest level. And at a PSA 8, there aren’t many examples that exceed this magnificent offering. In fact, 15 PSA 8.5’s are known, to go with 22 PSA 9’s and 3 GEM MINT 10’s.

For the discerning collector or the profit-driven investor, this card should be an automatic. The Koufax rookie card’s climb has been as remarkable as Koufax pitching at Dodger Stadium on a hot summer day. We expect the day to come very soon, when Koufax rookies at PSA 8 will be selling well in excess of $200,000 and perhaps as $250,000. If you’ve ever contemplated a Clemente rookie, we strongly encourage you investigate this card.

I remember that write-up. Gotta say I like Bill, but this just feels slimy.

I was shocked to see that coming from him, honestly.

I wonder how many green Cobbs these guys had

Funny you mention Goodwin. I was just looking at his last auction and recalled the Ohtani card that sold for $184k. There appear to be limitless amounts of dumb money in modern; isn’t it plausible some of that could trickle into pre-war?

I don't necessarily believe everything I see.

I would love to hear from one person that has spent more than 100 thousand dollars on a card made in this century. Has anyone ever met someone or know someone who has done it?

What are you saying, that you don’t believe someone paid that much for an Ohtani? Who knows? Maybe it didn’t. But it did according to Bill Goodwin’s website. He has a fine reputation, right, so it must be legit?

Oddly enough, I went to elementary school with Vegas Dave who paid $400k for some Mike Trout superrefractor thingy. We are not even acquaintances, by the way.

You mean that every bid back to about $4000 is from a bidder who bids with PWCC either 100% or 97% of the time? Yeah, I don't think this one requires much thinking.

To quote one of the great American songs, "It ain't necessarily so."

You tell me.

7/31/16 eBay Image memorylaneinc n***n Best Offer $20,000.00
7/17/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions 4***4 18 $23,100.00
7/10/16 eBay Image probstein123 s***e 25 $25,205.00
7/7/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions s***l 52 $27,100.00
6/30/16 Goodwin Image 20 $80,625.60
6/12/16 eBay Image pwcc_auctions a***t 33 $22,100.00
6/6/16 eBay Image dpingree i***r BIN $32,450.00
5/26/16 eBay Image smallstocks 9***8 BIN $20,000.00
5/23/16 eBay Image jrengstl 9***8 BIN $27,495.00
5/14/16 Heritage Image 20 $19,120.00

How does one validate the card was paid for?

Curious to hear someone say they bid that much and paid for it. Surely there must be someone here mixed into the masses.

The card was bid up and not paid for. That wasn't the only AH that this was done to.

These T206 HOFs are not “rare” in the sense there are very few that exist. What is happening though is that they are showing up for sale much less frequently. That is driving up prices as many are buying and stashing in Thier collections. So when a card that one wants does show up in the grade desired, folks are paying up instead of waiting a long time for another to appear.
Cory Weiser

Another big price last night in Memory Lane for a superior looking mid grade Matty portrait. $6,290.00 after the juice.

This same card sold in April of this year for $3,295.00. :eek:

http://photos.imageevent.com/threetw...ze/mlmatty.jpg

It's a nice card, but not THAT amazing for the grade. At some point, things are going to have to settle down a bit. This isnt sustainable

Come on now, everybody panic like it's 2016. :)

Hard to believe the 4.5 grade, looks a solid 5 at least. Chance of a surface imperfection, wrinkle, or other.

That's the problem, nobody panicked until it was too late in 2016. Glad people are questioning things this time!

time will tell if these prices are sustainable, but when you put the prices in perspective to what modern autographed rookie cards sell for (thousands of dollars), HOF mid grade t206 cards still look moderately priced. I think there are a number of collectors moving into the t206 market from other areas such as post war and modern and that is helping with demand. While these arent rare, supply is fairly limited in eye appealing grades 5 and above and there is enough money out there to push prices up. I think the prices have been too low for too long on a lot of the marquee HOF from the t206 set.

Apples to oranges. The high end rookie card market is, IMO, driven by a lot of speculators and flippers.

Last night a number of T206's again went for crazy numbers - the Matty Portrait, a few Cobbs, the HR Baker and the Waddell Portrait, etc.

The fact that these cards -- week after week, auction after auction -- keep going for crazy prices, and its not just limited to Cobb, Young, Wajo, Matty, leads me to conclude that these prices are becoming the new normal for good looking T206s. In my opinion, what is happening is too wide/broad for it to be a few people manipulating a few cards. It seems that T206 has caught fire and people are willing to pay whatever it takes to get the cards they want.

I do not understand who/why someone would pay 2-3 times what a relatively-common example previously sold for publicly, but people are doing it. They are spending that money with PWCC, Heritage, REA, and yes, Memory Lane, who I thought had a great auction last night and obtained some pretty crazy prices.

And its not just limited to T206s. I am guilty myself of paying (way) up for non-T206 Cobb, Wagner, Plank and Jackson items, and I recently paid 3x more for a 1916 Zeenut Claxton than what it last sold for in 2012. Note, however, that these tended to be rare(er) cards that do not come up often at all, not the more common T206s that are going for crazy prices.

Seems that the market for the high-end and/or rare versions of blue chip HOF cards is being reset. Seems this is the new normal, not just for T206. Seems card collecting is moving evermore into the realm of investment and away from being a hobby.

I fit into the category of buying mid grade cobb, matthewson, johnson and young. I am working on a set on the side.

I have duplicates and am still buying. With what I have, I plan on holding for 15 to 20 years before selling.

I think prices go up and down. I hope to come out ahead on the long haul. I was fortunate enough to pick up higher grade vesions before the explosion.

Rotchkiss, agree 100%. I was the crazy guy in high school and college collecting baseball cards in the 70s. Getting packages from Larry Fritsch or Card Collectors Co. However, the prices today have me thinking investment first. I don't see how anyone except the richest people can get very deep in the hobby without considering an investment.

I went after a Southern Leaguer, Helm, in PSA 6. The highest VCP sale was $880, last year. The card went for $2,100. :eek:

Back in the good old days (the 1960's), before the present insanity of paying exponentially more for a card that more neatly fits within a grading company's subjective opinion of desirability, T206's could be purchased for $1 from the Card Collector's Company. And the price was independent of player. I remember requesting that I be sent a card with no creases, and if I received such a card that by today's standards grade vg-ex, I would feel I hit the jackpot. THOSE ARE NICE LOOKING CARDS FOR THE ISSUE!

So the question to me is not why someone would pay $10k for an aesthetically pleasing T206 Young graded a 5, but why one would pay multiples of that for the card in an 8. And that doesn't even go into the question of what was done to the card to make it an 8.

NOOOOOooooooo! Not you, too, Hotchkiss?!?!?!

Was bidding on a Lajoie Portrait PSA 4 last night, I'm sure many people saw it. Ended at $1,325. Prior sale to that was REA at $1,600.

This was a $600 card earlier this year, and the year before that, and the year before that...

With all the talk of "Investment", do we really believe that all of a sudden, and it has been pretty much all of the sudden in the last handful of months, that there's a new group of "investors" with seemingly endless bankrolls that are happily forking over double/triple the prior sales prices for equivalent (and in many cases THE EXACT SAME) cards?

Kind of like the Lajoie, I guess we all just had it wrong for years and all of sudden they've got it right? They either put in ZERO price research (highly unlikely), or they just don't care (totally unlikely).

This has all the signs of 2016 again. That run up wasn't just the blue chip 50s/60s RCs either, it went well beyond that.

I would simply encourage everyone to be very careful right now.

I've spent my entire career in and around real commodity markets - energy, ags and softs, interest rates, currencies - the behavior going on right now is NOT NORMAL, and the overwhelming majority of these cards are NOT RARE ENOUGH to explain the size of the changes we're seeing.

Agreed. In my opinion, prices on cards that are far from scarce don't double, sustainably, overnight.

What is the end game? Do you think all (or a whole lot of) decent looking HOF T206s can be bought and their price be manipulated? I remember having a similar conversation with an authority when the Pete Rose RC manipulation happened. We laughed at the thought. There are just too many, of those and these, for there to be a sustainable manipulation, it seems. I wish I got those (manipulation) kinds of prices when I sold my first collection.

i have a healthy amount of skepticism, but i'm moving towards ryan's perspective on t206 iconic hof cards with strong eye appeal.

i'll put my money where my mouth is for those that are much more skeptical about recent prices than i. i'm game to buy any strong eye appeal (my discretion) mid-grade t206 portraits of iconic hofers (mathewson, johnson, cobb, young) at vcp prices going back a "reasonable" amount of time (can't cherry-pick select pwcc/memory lane sales in the last week). send me a pm if interested. i don't know if this comment belongs in this section because it is feedback to other posts but also a solicitation to buy.

But do you need to control the whole market or just win a couple of high profile auctions? If you win an REA or PWCC auction more people notice don't they? And thus aren't those prices are seen as more legitimate?

But on the other hand, I just read an article about young people collecting bottles of bourbon and classic cars. Is the entire art and collectibles market doing well because of low interest rates?

David, I agree 100% that what is going on right now is not normal, but i do not think its devious manipulation -- its just too broad in my opinion, and its happening outside of T206 too. Things are stupid expensive, but that's where the "market" has gone, on its own. It will correct (I think/hope). But when it does, the new normal will likely be higher floor values from the old normal.

I don't know if it's manipulation or just people making irrational purchases, but I am just skeptical of dramatic price changes in commodity cards and have my doubts that it will last. Midgrade T206s, even attractive ones, are nothing at all new or rare.

From my own experience as an auctioneer, I occasionally saw new collectors with deep pockets enter the hobby with a "kid in a candy store approach". They tried to buy everything at once, and often burned themselves out very quickly. So if a few of them have recently entered the T206 market, that could easily skew prices.

And of course there is nothing nefarious at all about it, just a bunch of wealthy people trying to amass an instant collection. Of course, I have no idea if this is the case, but it could be one explanation for rapidly escalating prices. A few of them could be competing against each other.

Another possibility is the people paying the prices are investors who see an opportunity. That 5 that went for $10k is a very nice looking card, that in a different era would probably be described as Nr Mt (or even higher). The last 8 sold for $114k. If prices for 8's hold at that level, or increase, nice looking 5's don't seem too expensive at $10k. I get it that the supply of 5's is a lot greater than 8's. But then so in theory should be the demand, as there are a lot more people who can afford $10k for a card than $114k.

+1. The best examples of significant cards such as the Young are most likely in what the coin world would refer to as "strong hands,' meaning their are few enough of them that they are not coming out anytime soon until the money is right, as it was for this one. In a slightly different context, key, rare but off-grade cards are soaring too--apparently $13,500 for a SGC 1.5 poor to fair 1907 Dietsche Fielding Pose Cobb in a November, 2018 auction. That was music to my ears, since I bought a PSA 5 example of that rare rookie for $4,000 in 2011, and also acquired a 1907 Wolverine News Cobb Portrait 3-4 years ago for what would probably be a fourth to a fifth of its' current value.

For those who weren't around in the early to mid '90's when I began looking for the 1925 Exhibits Gehrig rookie, they were largely nowhere to be found, until finally I happened upon a VG example at the '98 National. What had occurred was that the people that had them knew there weren't very many and how significant they were. Few were therefore willing to sell until prices soared into what these collectors believed the card's proper value was. As prices did begin to rise to these levels, more came out. I believe exactly the same thing is happening with the '39 R303A Ted Williams rookie. There aren't that many around, and virtually all of them are in "strong hands," with those that have them realizing the immense significance of the rookie card of what is the first or second best hitter of all time (depending upon your up-to-date sabermetric measuring stick). These collectors don't need the money at recent price levels, know they have a far better looking and tremendously scarcer Ted rookie than the '39 Playball, and won't be parting with them anytime soon at anything like "current" book values. IMHO, as one who predicted the rise of the rarer Cobb rookie post cards, you'll see more of the R303A rookie come out when VG or even G examples are in the $7500+ range, and even more when they hit $10,000+. Look for the far rarer '39 V351 to soar far higher.

The sale of the Young card fits into the above analysis due to its' great centering and tremendously clean appearance--regardless of technical grade, I don't believe there are that many to match it.

Plus, the newer card market is out of whack with the vintage market. Either the former is due to have a precipitous fall, the latter a substantial climb, or a combination of both.

Just my thoughts and best wishes to all.

Larry

I fundamentally disagree with your premise that the cards seeing the greatest premiums are "commodities." The one's I've seen shoot the highest in price were extremely well centered, and in my observation, those kinds of cards are far rarer, and trade less frequently, than people give them credit for. I would agree with you 100% if we we're seeing any basic Cobb 4 take off, but the premiums paid seem very selective in my view.

Larry, very cogent thoughts as always, but what you said was also true a year ago, and two, and three, and so on.

Sam, perhaps that was the wrong word, but then again it's never been that hard to find midgrade centered examples, has it? Why all of a sudden when these same cards, well centered, have been selling at much lower levels for years?

Again, we're talking about rapid and dramatic price increases, not a gradual rise over time.

Yes, compared to the 8 the 5 seems like a more than fair price. But I agree with the others that there is no logical reason for T206's to be rising at such a rapid rate. Sooner or later, something's got to give. These are very available in all grades all the time.

Not all 5's have the same aesthetic appeal. My suspicion, as others have noted, is that the supply of 5's that look like the one that went for $10k might not be as plentiful as people think. So what we might be seeing in part are collectors and/or investors FINALLY starting to shift the pendulum (a little) toward buying the card, not the holder.

Corey, from my perspective cards that are strong for the grade have been selling for a premium for many years. Nothing new there.

Whatever the reason for big price increase, ok, nice and fine by me, puts a smile on my face when I see the auction results. We should be happy our investments, er, collections are rising in value. Heckuva lot better than the market tanking, that's for sure. Nobody has a crystal ball, and I hope if/when a market correction downward happens it still ends higher than the old floor level. If no market correction downward, so much the better! Fingers crossed all that other cool pre-war major HOR'er stuff gets a little trickle down. Go Baseball cards !

Perhaps so Peter, but what is new here is that more of a premium seems to be put on the appearance of the card. Or, to say it another way, taking out of consideration the grade of the card, if one were to put side by side the 5 Young next to the 8 Young, based solely on appearance, should the 8 sell for 11-12 times the 5 (and that is the 5 valued at $10k)? Seems to me that assuming the 8 prices hold, not only will these new 5 prices hold, but they may in fact have room to increase. There is a lot of money out there looking for a place to be invested, and I can see how people could feel such a Young at $10k is a good investment.

I guess time will tell, but as far as your explanation, I see no reason that mindset would suddenly start to prevail in December 2018, when all the same considerations have been in play for many years.

Personally I am not looking to buy any of these, I have what I want, and I'm always happy to see my cards nominally go up in value, but from a detached perspective I just don't understand the meteoric price rise.

If you're a new collector prepared to spend some big money on baseball cards, and you need some advice about what to buy, and you find an experienced dealer to guide you, I bet nearly every one of them recommends T206. New collectors are invariably told they can't go wrong buying nice examples of key Hall of Famers. So the demand for this stuff is off the charts.

But that's nothing new, the prices are.

Yes, again, nothing new there at all.

Well, if the same advice is going to be given out for 20 years the prices re going to go up. Like real estate. If it's a great place to buy in 1990 and 2000 and 2017, the prices will go up because it's always smart to pay more than the last guy.

Hi, Pete! And as the hobby continues to grow (REA had something like bids from 20-some different countries in their spring auction?), and the AVAILABLE SUPPLY of the more highly desirable cards continues to shrink as they are taken up and stashed away at ever-increasing price levels, it will continue to do so with regard to vintage cards. The supply part of the demand and supply equation as it effects value is not, of course, the total supply in existance, but that part of it that is available within reasonable time parameters at any given price level. Which is why the in "strong hands" part of the supply factor makes so much difference.

However, I haven't seen (although I don't closely monitor it) the significant falling off of the newer card market which must, virtually inevitably, occur (after all, these cards will all become "vintage" at some point in time). It will happen, as it did in the early to mid-'90's new card market, because the two are not independent, but are in fact linked. Today's current star will inevitably become yesterday's hero, and to compete pricewise, their actual stature, as well as the supply of their cards, will have to match up with the vintage players we value so highly to sustain even the current prices. Which is why, as you know, I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on PSA 10 '93 SP Jeters priced at $76K+ or one of 50 Mike Trout refractor rookies graded 8.5 at $35K. Sorry, new card guys, but it has to happen!

As I've also stated, however, this hobby is meant to be enjoyed. As long as it is doing that for you, more power to you regardless of your preferences,

Sincerely,

Larry

I hear you Larry but from what I have seen the "float" has always been relatively low compared to the overall supply, just the nature of the hobby, most good cards at any given time are in the hands of collectors not looking to sell them.

Young 5
 

Well said....spot on accurate!

I'm only on page 9 of the thread, so maybe this point has been raised already but is it really that outrageous that bids would be double what they were 3 years ago for some of these cards? I collect Barry Bonds and his 86 Tiffany have more than doubled in that time. 2016 marked the end of the trough for those cards, a trough that began in 2008, the last time the stock market overheated.

http://i1000.photobucket.com/albums/...psm0t78978.png

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but maybe those guys who have been telling us to invest in the stock market and not cards are tired of taking a beating in the market this year and have decided to invest in top tier t206 Hofers.

Could very well be--indeed, could very well be. Hard assets (traditionally but not limited to gold) have often been viewed that way during stock market downturns. Often times, though, in our hobby, they find they like what they obtain and stick around as real collectors!

Best wishes,

Larry

+1


To Larry's point about limited supply due to collectors keeping the cards, I believe that is at play too. So you combine the increased demand with a more limited supply, one doesn't need to be an economist to predict what that will do to price.

To Peter's point about why now is this happening when these forces have been around for years, what might be different now, which Barry's post alludes to, is investment advisors have entered the fray and are steering people toward no-brainer-can't lose baseball cards (which if that doesn't apply to a nice looking card of the all-time win leader who has an award named after him in arguably the most storied set of all time that contains the famous Wagner card, that term has no meaning). There is a lot of money looking for a place to be invested, and unlike commodities, a product that offers one no satisfaction in ownership (how many people take pleasure in looking at their soybeans), investing in aesthetically pleasing vintage baseball cards of players that everybody has heard of offers the card owner the additional intangible return of satisfaction of ownership.

As Peter correctly says, time will tell if this is just a passing phenomena, but my belief is that it is not and as long as the 8 prices hold, these new 5 prices of NICE LOOKING 5's, as exemplified by the $10k Young, are here to stay.

I have a habit of listening to Bloomberg radio more often than I should and they have a recurring commercial that comes on almost every 20 to 30 minutes extolling the virtues of investing in Fine 19th century antique furniture...When I start hearing advertisements suggesting people invest in fine, well centered T206 cards then maybe i’ts time to exit the hobby!!

Pete, let me know if you are exiting “the hobby”- I am sure we can cut a deal on a number of your cards!;)

Ask collectors who have been buying fine antique furniture over the years how they are doing with their investment. They will all tell you the same thing: the market is dead and they will never get their money out of their collections.

Longtime book collectors are in somewhat the same pickle, as you well know. Not all collectibles stay in favor but my guess is that baseball cards hold on for a lot longer. (at least until we are dust :))

Exactly Barry...leon... so when we start hearing commercials on the radio it’s already too late!

Agreed that baseball cards probably have more staying power than other collectibles, but they are not impervious to market forces. Our hobby is almost entirely demand driven, so that demand could easily wane sometime in the future. I'm not making any predictions, I have no idea what the future holds, but it would be foolish to think this stuff can only go up.

I agree. And had anyone heavily invested/collected caramel cards 10-15 yrs ago they would be upside down now (for the most part).

If more collectors are keeping their cards how come there are more auction houses than ever, ebay sales of prewar are brisk and there are other outlets (facebook etc.) that also sell tons of pre-war cards?

I think the reality is that more people are flipping cards today than ever before

The explanations I have heard could account for a gradual price rise over time, but not, in my mind, for a sudden meteoric one. People didn't just wake up one night of a PWCC auction to the investment possibilities of nice mid grade T206s, IMO.

This is a fact. Especially noticeable on facebook razz groups. (raffle groups where you buy a spot for a chance to win a card)

I see countless cards sell on ebay for more than a straight sale could bring normally and put up in these groups for 20% more and they sell quickly.

This is one of the reasons (besides the legality issue of such raffles) that we do not allow them in our pre war fb group.

Is this the furniture BST section?

I have a fine antique square table suitable for playing cards, sorting cards or playing tabletop baseball sim games. It was crafted in 1830 and is made of real wood, not particle board. Photos available upon request. Serious offers only. If you are in need of firewood, kindly do not respond.;)

And this is a similar mentality I saw on many stock message boards leading up to the recent crash...people getting in because it seemed like a sure thing...so easy to buy because everything just keeps going up...and look where we are now. not to say this will happen to most caards...just citing a similar example.

Bitcoin!!

Peter, is this sudden meteoric rise the sale of one PSA 5 T206 Young, or are you referring to a number of comparable transactions? If the former, maybe the explanation is the simplest -- two collectors were chasing that card, had a lot of money, really liked it, and didn't want to wait for another comparable 5 to come along. I'm not saying this is the explanation, only that there is limited information one can derive from a single transaction.

That said, because IMO the price makes sense based on the prices of 8's combined with logical explanations of supply and demand, even though the increase might have happened more quickly than what one is accustomed to seeing, I am hesitant to describe the forces at play anything other than prudent assessment of value. If though the meteoric rise takes the price to a level that seems totally whacked out compared to prices of 8's (e.g., $50k), then I would have more cause to suspect something other than ordinary market forces at play.

Corey this thread was a response to maybe 3 or 4 seemingly way out of line prices in a recent PWCC auction, not any trend.

I have a beautiful 1890's oak roll top desk. I bought it in 1988 for $2200, and I was lucky to get it. Back then there were a hundred antique stores in my neighborhood (there are maybe two left), and I had to get on a lot of waiting lists and be really aggressive to land it. It was my holy grail, and I still use it today. I imagined how much it would be worth as the years passed.

Well it's thirty years later, and I'm thinking of selling it. Anyone care to bail me out at cost? How about a discount below my cost? How about I throw in the cost of your rental van if you are willing to come and pick it up?

That is the state of the antique roll top desk market.