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Clemente
Interesting thread. I can see this from three different perspectives.
As a collector, my main observation is that Clemente items command a premium from the so-called "deceased player" effect. No, he isn't going to sell for the same as Ruth and Cobb items, but there's still a healthy arbitrage to be had. As a stats guy, I'd say 40th all-time in career WAR feels right - I could probably move him to the top 30 if certain normalizing adjustments were made. As a baseball fan from Pittsburgh, I wouldn't rank him higher than Ruth, Cobb, etc., but I do own his jersey, wear it to each game and see that jersey's appearance on the rise. In Pirates history, he is clearly second after Honus, but benefits in "mindshare" from a recency effect. There is also a primacy effect - He wasn't the first Latin American MLB player, but he was the first Latin American player to be inducted into Cooperstown. |
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Peter, I'm looking at Bill James' 2002 book now; he has Clemente ranked 74th on his list of the 100 greatest players of all-time. To be fair, eight of the guys on the list ahead of Clemente either never played in the Major Leagues, or played when their career was in its twilight. I take an issue with that. I have no doubt these guys were tremendous players, but unless it's Josh Gibson or Satchel Paige, guys who absolutely dominated the Negro Leagues, I don't think these other guys belong on the list ahead of Clemente, who proved himself day day in, day out for eighteen seasons. I think Roberto's ranking, and Robin Yount's, are both a bit low (Yount he had at 55). There's some personal bias, as they're my favorite two players of all-time, but I can make a compelling case for their being a few slots higher. Now, of course, both players have been knocked down some by the players that have come into their own since 2002.
The comments that Clemente wouldn't have gotten to 3,500 hits are rubbish. Clemente had a few nagging injuries that kept him from playing a full 1972 season, but towards the end of the year, he was close to full strength. From the start of September to the end of the year, Clemente played in 27 of the Pirates' 32 games, hitting .333, slashing .379/.511/.890. He was preparing to come back for spring training in 1973 when his plane crashed. Clemente's game was built to play past 40. While the big power hitters often lose a step late in their careers, Roberto was getting better. His last four seasons-1969 to 1972, age 34 to 37, he hit a combined .339 with a 153 OPS+ (.345 in 1969, .352 in 1970, .341 in 1971 and .312 in 1972). He played in 480 games combined. Look at his 162 game averages for this period-103 runs scored, 209 hits, 31 doubles, 13 triples, 19 home runs, 101 RBI, and a slash line of .387/.521/.908. And BBR has his WAR for 480 games at 25.0. He averaged 8.3 WAR per 162 games played. Does that sound like a guy that is about ready to hang 'em up? The Pirates were 98-57 in 1972. Clemente was raking the last month of the season, and had every motivation to come back, and keep playing beyond 1973. Willie Stargell was NL MVP runner up in '73. Richie Zisk was a star on the rise-between 1973 and 1976, before being traded, Zisk hit .302 as a Pirate with a 138 OPS +. Al Oliver would hit .305 between 1972 and 1977 for the Pirates, with a 124 OPS +. Dave Parker was a rookie in '73, and by '75 he would lead the NL in slugging. What kind of lineup would the Pirates have had with Zisk, Oliver, Clemente, Stargell and Parker as the top five in the order? |
All this WARing and JAWing misses the essence. Clemente isn't a top tier card collecting favorite because of his stats alone, he is at the pinnacle because of the other factors that make his story so compelling and that make people want to have his cards. Clemente was a great ballplayer, but he was an even greater human being. You can fling stats at each other like monkeys slinging poo but it won't change the reality on the ground, which is that if you had a son who said Al Kaline is his role model, you'd say that's nice but if he said Roberto Clemente was his role model you'd be a very proud papa.
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Who said Roberto wouldn't have made it to 3500? The responses were to the suggestion he would have ended up as the all time hit leader.
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Black and international players were always part of the pool of people who played baseball. International players probably play more baseball than Americans now, which means their talent has elevated itself the same way America's talent would have had to in the dead ball era. In addition, African American participation in the sport, or lack thereof, has been a trending topic in recent years. |
Population has increased 3x in the past 100 years. That offsets a lot of declining participation in baseball in terms of the talent pool. Plus we are now drawing on huge numbers of international players who, even if eligible, were not similarly epresented in 1918 or for decades afterwards. And of course none of the black players back then were in the majors.
Personally I think the peak of talent may have been the 50s and 60s, with the influx of black and Latino players and while baseball was still the dominant sport even if others were making inroads. Also pre-expansion. |
Great is great, no matter what era. In 1964, Bob Hayes ran an anchor leg in the Olympics that is still considered by many to be the fastest 100 meters ever run by a human. He did that on a crappy track with 1964 shoes, not the fancy stuff of today. If Bob Hayes were 22 years old now, he would have even BETTER stats than he did in the NFL of his time.
So, when we disparage the old guys, let us keep in mind that they did what they did under completely different conditions. Are they as well conditioned and did they eat as well as today's athletes? Of course not. But, today's American athletes don't have to work a job in the off season. They didn't grow up without electricity. They didn't have to plow fields without a tractor. Why do you think the Latin American baseball players come here and kick butt? Because they grew up with nothing and worked their tails off to get here. Mariano Rivera grew up poor in Panama and helped his dad fishing for sardines. He didn't get any kind of special training or conditioning or diet. He just worked hard to get to the majors. Once he got there, that's when he got better conditions. Don't you think players of the 1920's would do the same if they were playing today? As far as the Clemente issue, he was a grade A player, and a grade A+ human being. Card collectors are giving him a bigger value on the A+ part. I'm just fine with that. |
After Mantle, I would put Clemente second in terms of popularity. Hard to believe he would be ahead of Aaron and Mays, but I truly think he is. Also hard to believe that players like Frank Robinson and Eddie Mathews are just a notch above commons, with the exception of their rookie cards. Clemente seems to be trending up and I think it will stay that way, at least for a while.
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I don't think there's any way Clemente got close to Cobb. Though he was still an elite player, the years of running and sliding, crashing into walls, making diving plays, etc had started to take a toll. Roberto was still in ridiculous shape though, and with the outfield depth Pittsburgh had, I think he'd have stayed fresh throughout the season. He was still going to be good for 125 games a year, and could play at a high level (.310 + AVG, elite defense. The arm was still pristine). But he wasn't going to get the 200 hits a season that used to be his norm in his prime. Just not enough at bats. But it's not a stretch to see him getting another 500 hits, and raising his career average north of .320. He also was a good bet to crack the top ten all-time in triples. If my memory serves me correctly, nobody who started their career after WW II has more triples than Clemente's 166. He had a real shot at going over 200. I'm guessing Roberto would have played another three or four years. I have to assume his overall game does decline some, but there's no reason why he couldn't have been worth 5 WAR a season. Even if he only plays to age 40, 15 WAR puts him right next to Mantle. |
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I think Clemente's enduring popularity, in baseball circles and within our hobby, is due to a number of factors. Yes, there's the ultimate sacrifice he made in trying to help those earthquake victims in Managua. That was the kind of man Roberto Clemente was. But, I have always chosen to focus on how he lived, and not how he died. He was a man that the Latino community could look to with pride. He was taunted for being both a black man and Hispanic, and his speech was mocked by reporters. Yet he held his head high, and was outspoken for his people. When he won the World Series MVP, he addressed his followers in Spanish on national television. And on the field, he was one of the most exciting men to ever play the game. Wagner may be the greatest shortstop to ever play the game, but there's absolutely no question that nearly half a century after his death, Roberto Clemente is still the face of the Pittsburgh Pirates franchise. |
I saw him play two of the 1971 WS games in Baltimore. As I recall he lit up the place and my Dad, who grew up on DiMaggio and then early Mantle, was very impressed with him.
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Of course there is no way to know the answer, but would Clemente's cards carry the same values if he had played another 2-3 years, then retired to his home in Puerto Rico and wasn't really visible in the mainland US for the rest of his life? There are dozens of solid Latin American players that go home and do great things in their communities that we never hear about. Clemente might have been one of those.
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Assuming he would have still been playing, a 1974 and 1975 Topps Clemente card probably would have been a blazer.
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I thought about other players whose hobby stature/card values seem to be somewhat disproportionate to their numbers/playing accomplishments. I came up with Maris, Clemente and Jeter as the top three, I guess some would include Jackie. Who else?
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Moe Berg would be an obvious one. I even think Thurman Munson's cards are more expensive than they should be.
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Wrong sport, but Namath.
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At least I didn't say it on the postwar forum. But seriously all the Ks notwithstanding he's maybe marginally in the top 25 as a pitcher IMO. Comparing him to Seaver is like, I don't know what, comparing Andy Warhol to Monet or something.
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Why does Carew get no love? His OBP SLG OPS and OPS+ are, interestingly and somewhat eerily really, virtually identical to Morgan. 7 batting titles. 3000 hits. Very high BA. Was it his fielding or lack thereof?
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Plus, his cards look really nice.
http://photos.imageevent.com/exhibit...20Clemente.jpg For my money the best looking of the 1956 Topps cards. And again in 1969: http://photos.imageevent.com/exhibit...20Clemente.jpg and 1972: http://photos.imageevent.com/exhibit...20Clemente.jpg Such a shame there wasn't a 1974 Topps tribute card to Clemente. |
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A few of my favorites.
Many great cards of him. |
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2. No power whatsoever.... not many extra base hits. 3. No championships at all. Morgan was a GREAT clutch hitter, had some surprising power, and won two World Championships. Granted, Carew played in Minnesota at a time that they were not great. Those would be the 3 reasons that immediately come to mind. There's more to it than just stats on paper. But MLB did put the A.L. Batting Title in his name, and he was a great singles hitter. |
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I too have often used Al Kaline as an example to compare what Clemente's worth would be if he wasn't the hispanic poster boy and didn't die tragically.
Clemente was a great all around player, but in no way shape or form should his cards be in or above the range of Mays, Aaron, Ted Williams etc. |
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Hispanic Poster Boy...wow |
Some of these answers
Some of these answers seem to forget baseball is no longer just primarily a US sport with a minor Latin influence and is much more global with a huge Latin influence along with population explosions making the fact that baseball is now the # 3 sport in America rather irrelevant. American Football is only number one in the USA nowhere else. Baseball is still much larger than football
Globally. Though I understand soccer trumps Them all in popularity. |
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Clemente is an icon who transcends baseball. Great players come and go, but a story like Clemente’s will likely never be replicated. |
Mantle, Clemente, and Jackie are the 3 most valuable post war players. Not many collectors I know wanna sell their cards of said players, they only want to buy more !
That doesn’t mean they have the best stats or were the best players. We’re they great players? Absolutely. More importantly when it comes to value is iconic, popularity, and all around amazing character. People that don’t know jack about baseball know who Jackie, Clemente, and Mantle are when you mention their names. Just as they know Ruth. |
So many thoughts:
1) As a player, Clemente isn't even close to inner circle HOF. 2) As a person, Clemente is definitely inner circle HOF. 3) As for Kaline vs Clemente - how does the fact that Kaline played in a really small RF impact his TZR and assists? Certainly fewer guys would be running on Kaline given how short Tiger Stadium's RF was, especially compared to Forbes. 4) Folks in this thread are giving Jackie Robinson waaaaaaaaay too much credit as a 2B. The guy played 748 of his 1382 games at 2B - 54%. Yeah, it was his most-frequent position but he played 256 games at 3B, 197 at 1B, and 162 in the OF. Guys who played 5 seasons at a position aren't in the conversation for "best ever" at that position. Period. 5) The Owens/De Grasse comparison thing is nonsense. Owens ran a 10.3, De Grasse ran an 11.0. Yep, he was slower. The very time ever wearing that particular kind of shoe, without blocks, etc. Does anybody REALLY think De Grasse wouldn't have been faster with a month of practice using the same equipment? C'mon. |
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Didn't he have a couple of no hitters with all of those ks. |
IMO the Clemente rookie is the MOST over valued card in the hobby. Baseball is all about stats and his are just not there.
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I personally find it an unattractive card, but I would rather a Clemente RC than that of any Post-War player not named Jackie, Willie, or Mickey. |
Interesting to note
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I dont see his hobby status changing much in either direction. He's top 5 for postwar players in terms of popularity and collectibility, but we will never be as popular as Mantle, Cobb, Ruth, or Gehrig. And as others have mentioned I wouldn't put him ahead of Aaron, Mays, Williams, or DiMaggio personally.
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As stated already, this stats argument on Clemente is null and void. He is an icon because of his life and person. That is why he is valued and should be. Completely different sport, but as an example, is the demand for Brian Piccolo's rookie to easily sell for hundreds in an 8 because he had 4 TDs in his career or for him as a man? Are Moe Berg's cards worth anything because he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn or that his story is perhaps one of the best secrets ever disclosed? Intangibles. |
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One measure of "clutch" situations is guys in scoring position. Morgan hit .261 with RISP. 2 outs and RISP, just .253. "Late & Close", he hit .265. |
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Love this thread
All,
I just want to say that I truly enjoy this thread and reading all of the opinions... |
Most assessments of someone's "clutch" hitting are anecdotal and biased. I very much doubt that over a career many players deviate significantly from their BA however you define "clutch" situations.
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Barry Bonds .298 career hitter. 2 outs RISP .266. Late and close .275. |
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Since you say that the stats argument in null and void, it must be true. Because the man died on a humanitarian mission doesn't explain the crazy value of his cards. HOFer -yes. Thousands of dollars for his cards- NO! |
He was a GREAT player
While he may not have been the greatest player - he WAS a GREAT player (statistically)! The stats have been mentioned earlier in this thread. In addition to that he 1) Loved and was more passionate than many about the game of baseball and playing it. 2) He was a great role model and face of the game. He fought to maintain his individuality and pride while making any celebration about his fans and family. 3) He gave back in ways that few players do, ultimately giving his life while trying to help on a night that most people were busy partying. His life story is one of achieving the American dream and then dying tragically. Every bit a GREAT player AND so much more. Deserving (imnsho) of being as popular in the baseball card world as he is.
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His Topps Rookie is expensive becasue it's a hard card. Aaron way more easy in 54 same with Banks and Kaline. 55 Sandy Rookie Way more easy along with Harmon.
Find me a centered limited print issue Clemente Rookie, not easy to find. People pay up for it all the time. Nice 8's will prob settle back to the $20k range. |
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Part of it is that he had that intangible quality -- I'm not sure it can be translated accurately, but the Spanish word I have seen is duende. It even comes through on some of his cards I would say.
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I think he's just become (or rather has been) a icon that inspires people. He also is perhaps the top collecting tier for post war Latin american collectors. As to the overvalued discussion I simply can't agree as his RC is selling at a rapid pace at good numbers. It has leveled from the false market trends of last summer but is well within fair pricing now. As to his other cards, I feel they have room to grow in the next few years and pick up good cards when I see them at fair prices. I remember buying a dead centered 1959 PSA 8 just a few years back at less than 80 bucks and that just does not happen today. However, you can still find higher grade later issues at sub-100 levels if you watch. I know I am in the super-minority because I feel the 52 Mantle is the most over-valued card in the hobby. But that is personal opinion, right now and in the foreseeable future that is proven by buyers that my opinion has little water...it's my opinion. I think that the hyperbole about Clemente not being in the upper echelon of collectible postwar RCs holds the same amount of water as my Mantle thoughts. It can be my opinion, but the sales figures just aren't giving it weight. |
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I mean hey, if we going to start making assumptions or generalizations based on someone's perceived intent.... :) |
Jesus H....he didn't have the stats? Why, because he didn't hit 400 home runs? Clemente said that he purposely put hitting for average above going for power because he felt it would help his team more. The Pirates somehow managed to win two World Series with him, in 1960 and 1971, against the '60 Yankees with Mantle, Maris, Ford, Berra, et all, and the '71 Orioles with four 20 game winners, Frank and Brooks Robinson. The guy had incredible power. It's been documented. He's like Ichiro in that regard. And, he played in an aircraft carrier for most of his career home games.
And that sacrificing the glory that comes with home runs for the good of the team should be commended, not dissed. That's the kind of mentality I'd love in a superstar. The guy was a career .317 hitter. 4 batting titles, and 6 other top 5 finishes. And, he was getting better, as I'd mentioned. Last four seasons, he was a .339 hitter. Clemente could have kept going. Where would his lifetime AVG had ended up? 440 doubles and 240 home runs aren't elite. 166 triples? No player starting their career after WW II has more. Then, there's the guy's defense. Defense is half the game, and he's arguably the best to ever play the position. Dude had 94.5 career WAR. He only played 18 seasons. If he plays 22 like Mays or Aaron, here are his career stats (and all-time rank) using his seasonal averages for his last four years, reduced by 20% for decline due to age: 10,909 AB 1,658 runs scored 3,493 hits (6th) 512 doubles 196 triples (9th) 285 home runs 1,543 RBI 5,252 total bases (15th) .320 AVG 122 WAR (12th) Willie Mays played 22 years, 2,992 games Hank Aaron played 24 years, 3,298 games Ty Cobb played 24 years, 3,034 games Frank Robinson played 21 years 2,808 games Stan Musial played 22 years, 3,026 games Carl Yastrzemski played 23 years, 3,308 games Roberto Clemente 2,433 games A lot of the guys atop the leader boards on all-time metrics had the benefit of 400-500 more games played. Clemente died. Much of his greatest value as a player came towards the very end of his career. His game wasn't declining. If Clemente had played 22 years, using the approximate numbers I calculated, here's how he compares against these supposedly "superior players". WAR: Mays 156.4 Cobb 151.0 Aaron 143.0 Musial 128.2 Clemente 122.0 Robinson 107.3 Yaz 96.4 Clemente's career WAR is comparable to Stan Musial when the games played are about the same. Without actually projecting what Clemente might have done, let's break it down to what he did do. Games played per WAR point. (Games/WAR per BBA). Same players: Mays 19.13 Cobb 20.09 Aaron 23.06 Musial 23.60 Robinson 26.17 Yaz 34.31 Clemente 25.75 When total contribution is considered, Clemente's rate of WAR is better than Carl Yastrzemski and Frank Robinson. It's quite comparable to Stan Musial's rate. Expressed another way, their average WAR per 162 games played: Mays 8.47 Cobb 8.06 Aaron 7.03 Musial 6.86 Robinson 6.19 Yaz 4.72 Clemente 6.29 Some other greats: Jackie Robinson 22.51 games played per WAR; 7.20 WAR per 162 games played. Babe Ruth 15.44 G per WAR; 10.49 WAR per 162 games played. Mel Ott 25.32 G per WAR; 6.40 WAR per 162 games played. Again, WAR per 162 games played: Mel Ott 6.40 Clemente 6.29 Mel Ott hit 511 career home runs. He led the league in home runs six times. Drove in 1,860 runs. And Roberto Clemente, who hit less than half his runs has almost the identical WAR/162 games played. So, tell me again how Clemente wasn't an elite Hall of Famer? |
1959 Clemente PSA 8.5
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Thinking about buying this...
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Don’t like the title and print bottom left. Just me though.
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Oh, and since Kaline was brought up...
Career WAR: Clemente 94.5 Kaline 92.8 Games played: Clemente 2,433 Kaline 2,834 (+401) Games played per WAR Point: Clemente 25.7 Kaline 30.54 WAR/162 games played: Clemente 6.3 Kaline 5.3 Al Kaline hit .297 for his career, with 399 home runs. He walked 1,277 times to Clemente's 621. Yet, Clemente was worth 1 win more per season (per BBA) than Al Kaline. Perhaps Clemente's total game is being undervalued. He doesn't have the sexy doubles and home run totals, therefore, he's not elite. :rolleyes: |
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Are there players whose "clutch" numbers are substantially higher than their BA? |
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It only makes sense if you are going to be a failure at going for power.
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Put another way - of all the guys whose careers are over, and were played entirely in the integrated era, Mantle is 2nd in OPS+. To a steroid guy. Mantle was an incredibly great player who somehow is also underrated. |
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Orioles/Pirates
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