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I did get into some stuff early, high grade isn't the only "investment" though. Truly rare or iconic items have done awfully well based on the same REA auction. But the fact of the matter is I have been priced out of some things, doesn't mean I am bitter though as I love the hobby. I would love to do a 1914 CJ set but that will never happen after the huge spike 3 or 4 years ago. Yes, ultimately I agree its all ego driven by definition, but there are some innocent factors as well like connecting to our childhood.
I guess I am just amazed...and there are definitely a ton of people with tons of cash. |
It's always the guys with no money telling the rest of us how dumb we are to spend big money on high grade cards. They have yet to figure out that no one listens to investment advice from guys with no money.
<a data-flickr-embed="true" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/calvindog/27043235601/in/album-72157607823551376/" title="1914 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson E145"><img src="https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7436/27043235601_da0fab9348_z.jpg" width="388" height="640" alt="1914 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson E145"></a><script async src="//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Quote:
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Wow! Somebody sure did a nice job doctoring that card Jeff!
Cheers, Patrick |
There is no doubt that there are cards out there that are so rare that the card in any condition can perform quite well. That said of those examples once again the higher you go up the grading scale the better the performance will be. Human behavior in many cases is very easy to predict and when it comes to things of value the higher up the food chain you go, they want collectibles that could impress others who share their level of wealth. For years on the CU board I have discussed the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle in a PSA 10. I believe that if one comes available it is very likely to land in the hands of a non card collector. Someone with roots to the 1950's and 60's Yankees who has vast wealth and would love to showcase such a rare specimen in their 60th floor penthouse. Quite frankly the higher the price goes the more they will want it as the bragging rights associated with such a card only go up as the price does.
I continue to be puzzled by the notion that some suggest that cards aren't investments. You may not view your collection as an investment but in the real world anything that can be called a store of value is an investment. In 1985 when I began first purchasing cards Dwight Gooden was all of the rage. A pack of 1985 Topps was $0.35 and the goal as a kid was to buy a pack and get cards that were worth more than your $0.35. If you did your investment made money. If it didn't you lost and felt sorry for yourself and had to scrounge up some more funds to play the lottery again. All of the kids in my neighborhood couldn't wait for that months Beckett to come out and see if our collections were gaining value. The card market is very much like the stock market. You have a huge number of choices and varying degrees of risk. On one hand you have long term winners that using history as a guide have done well over time all the way to registry cards that are more like penny stocks with some paying off but most going down overtime as the populations increase. The modern market would be considered very high risk but with that risk level, some will produce massive gains while most will fizzle out and be worth a fraction of their value in the future. People buying cards that are $5,000 or perhaps $10,000 or higher are definitely in almost all cases concerned about the value. It may not be their primary motive for purchase but if one thinks that someone is interested in buying a card for that sum and watching it dwindle down to a few hundred bucks they are simply mistaken. The run that many cards have had since I got back into cards in 2009 is staggering. As the prices have risen it has given many more resources to use for other purchases and confidence in their ability to invest in the card market. The term investment shouldn't be considered a bad word when it comes to cards. It takes real resources to purchase them and unless ones funds are simply unlimited it isn't even rational to not want them to hold their price and hopefully increase. I started sending cards to PSA in early 2010 and I have never participated in anything where the upside is so much greater than the downside. It is incredible that you can send cards to a grading company and simply pay a fee and instantaneously have the potential to wildly increase their value. There are countless collectors and dealers who have 100 baggers on cards. Find me a stock that you can buy and have this happen. I am in the stock business and trust me it is incredibly difficult to pick big winners but even more difficult to hold them and ride them for long periods because at some point you buckle and sell. The other feature that cards offer is they can't go to zero. Even players like Barry Bonds who was on the perennial cold list have seen their higher graded cards make a huge resurgence. Combining fun, nostalgia, competition and investing in one hobby is incredible and one of the primary reasons that more people are entering the hobby and that people are willing to pony up larger sums to participate. It is true that most cards aren't what you would classify as safe investments but those making very strategic bets on marque pieces have done extremely well over time and that isn't going to change. |
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If you want to think it's PSA, which is essentially some card grader, that's certainly your choice and to be respected as such. And perhaps a good amount of the time an individual collector shopping for what he subjectively thinks is best will agree with what the grader said. Yet let's not lose sight of the fact that the grading rules were arbitrarily codified by the TPGs, and are also subjectively enforced. Personally, I think each collector gets to decide ultimately what's the best card with his own two eyes. I've seen plenty of cards in "average" grade that, to my eye, blow away another card with a 9 or 10 sticker on it. Now you may say that the card with the 9 or 10 is "best" because it sells for more money, and that's cool if money is your judgement criteria— yet a collector looking for aesthetic beauty to their eye uses that as their criteria. So one guy's "best" might not be PSA's "best," or the next guy's "best." No one's right and no one's wrong. Let's just not sweepingly impose a definition of such a key term on everyone in the same hobby. We may all collect cards, but we may not all necessarily kowtow to what some grader says, and we may not use price realized upon sale as the key determinant of what is "best." I also wouldn't equate owning a card in an "average" grade with being average, as you did above. Nor would I equate being the best with owning the card that sells for the most or has the highest sticker grade. For example, there are cards with '9' and '10' on the sticker that I can afford, yet I can honestly say if I choose them over another card in lower grade that looks better to my eye and costs me less to boot, I'd feel more like a fool than the "best." |
I have quite a few graded wrestling cards. One of the reasons I have so many is I appreciate eye appeal. That said I don't confuse reality. Higher grades go for higher prices. Matty you can certainly take credit for playing a major roll in collectors appreciating lower graded centered copies but at the end of the day the higher graded examples can climb the most.
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As someone who's seen lots of your collection, I always have loved how the cards you choose always match or exceed the grade. You also have tremendous passion for the cards, the athletes, and the sport.
And I certainly would agree with the higher grades appreciating the most in value, as well. |
What I object to is the investors taking an innocent pastime and transforming it into yet another ruthless exercise in commerce. Maybe that is an inevitable byproduct of how our culture commoditizes everything but I don't have to like it or applaud those who do.
And stay off my lawn! |
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I TOTALLY get the view that money has corrupted a child's pastime and part of me will always feel this way as prices skyrocket and people are priced out of cards.
But the logical part of me also has to acknowledge that this is not exclusive to baseball cards. This happens elsewhere in other "innocent" pursuits, including toys (check out these realized prices on old Star Wars figures: http://www.sothebys.com/en/auctions/...go-n09402.html), kids books (one of the first Harry Potter books sold for $37k: https://www.abebooks.com/books/rareb...ns-books.shtml), video games (http://mentalfloss.com/article/66183...ve-video-games) and more. The positive spin, which I prefer, is that baseball cards are treated as an investment because so many of us find them fascinating and wonderful, giving us an emotional lift and reminding us of those more innocent times and pursuits of our past. And in my opinion, I much prefer how baseball cards have evolved and the future of collecting versus video games, toys and books. And I hope that people do see the irony of any resentment over baseball cards being a commodity, considering their role in history to help sell tobacco, bread, gum, candy, etc. etc. |
Actually.....
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I agree with Barry that, given the inherent subjectivity in grading, it is hard to justify the enormous disparities at the high end of valuable cards, like 8 v. 8.5 for example. It would seem to me that these disparities would diminish over time.
Further, while I would never offer unsolicited advice, it seems fair to speculate that the increase in values of vintage cards will taper off over time due to aging baby boomers and general economic conditions. Finally, I am not offended by folks who approach the hobby for its investment value. I recognize that infusion of serious money engenders unpleasant consequences, like fraud, but think these problems can be adequately addressed by self-regulation assuming sufficient desire, and by law enforcement efforts where necessary. |
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I did laugh about bamboozling the wife - as whenever the arms cross and I get a stink eye about the latest card/set/project that I have bought or began, I pull out my inventory on the PSA registry page that shows that I have made about 20% above what I bought them for. Of course, this is SMR which does not feel very real world, and she & I know that I have no intention ever to sell - (and she doesn't realize that I am 80 cents on the dollar at an AH or less than that selling to a dealer) - but it cools down the heat in the kitchen and sometimes I will go on the offensive and compare the 20% return on my inventory to a measly 8.8% return on our liquid assets. Some day she is going to call my bluff and say - sell it all and I will have to explain that it really isn't that much above what I paid for it - if any at all - after fees are taken into account. |
Taking the bluff might not be that bad for you down the road. It wasn't that bad for me. My return was much better than 20%.
My wife never thought I wouldn't do it either. Now I just tell her in 20 more years I will do it again. :) Quote:
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I totally agree! |
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That someone with a lot of years in says it would be really hard must count for something. One of the good things about paper is that for the most part papermaking back then was a bit less precise than it is now. There's a variety with the stamps I collect known as "straw paper" Because it's got bits of straw/hay in it. Some people consider it as an entirely different paper. The reality is that if the vat of pulp has to be just fluid enough for the purpose, not too thick, not too watery. But since it's there all day being mixed they have to constantly add water. Back then, if too much water was added they'd throw in a bale or two of hay to thicken it up, resulting in a bit of the batch getting a bunch of hay particles in it. That's 1870's -80's, and things barely changed at all between then and 1910. Now it's probably constantly checked by sensors and a computer controls the water content. Yes, a bunch of that expertise would have been lost. Duplicating it precisely so nobody could tell probably isn't possible. Duplicating it so it's really hard to tell? I think it's doable. Steve B |
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I don't usually say people spending big on high grade cards are dumb. In some situations I'm not sure it's a good investment. Of course, I've had that same opinion of those cards, in some cases since they were new. (86 Fleer Jordan :( ) So you're probably right about some of my investment ideas. On the original topic of money in the hobby. It's one of those love/hate things. I've collected long enough that the prices between when I started and now are worlds apart. T206 Wagners were under 20K for sure, 52 Mantles were under 1000 even for a nice one. Would I like to return to that? Yes and no. Now that I've got "some money", at least the Mantle would be within reach, probably not the Wagner. (I could buy one at say 10K, but me and the card would be kicked out of the house shortly after ) And I'd love to get common T206s for $2 each with no regard for backs and not much for condition. But then, back then I hung out at a dealers a LOT. Sort of worked for them, and got to see a lot of collections come in. And saw a lot of those go back out because what the cards were worth to a dealer wasn't enough to overcome the "these were granddads cards". Yes, money has shut me out of some of the hobby, my own cheapness from a bit more. But if it wasn't for the money, a lot of that stuff would still be in attics and drawers, or would have been thrown out. Would the Black Swamp find have been sold into the hobby if the cards were worth a dollar each? Maybe maybe not. And yes, wherever there's money there are crooks. But overall, I think the hobby has benefitted from the money. Steve B |
"Bamboozling the wife" appears to be a theme that runs through many threads. My wife and I have avoided money issues over 30+ years by never combining our finances. Thus, she never complains about my purchases, nor I about hers (I once came home to find a new Cadillac SUV in the driveway.).
I realize this system would not work for all couples and, in particular, those where the wife works at home at child-rearing. Nevertheless, I mention it for the benefit of those collectors who may find it worthy of consideration. |
Interesting article about what happened to the Elvis Presley collectable market as the original Elvis fans start dying of old age. Will BB Cards see a similar depression in 20-30 years when people, like me, from the 70/80s boom start dying off?
https://www.theguardian.com/music/sh...eting-in-price |
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probably be more evident in 40-50 years when most of us will be gone. |
Elvis fans are aging out clearly. I'd also argue that Elvis hasn't held up particularly well over the decades. What he did doesn't seem quite so spectacular anymore. Ditto people like Bing Crosby. Sure it will be a good long while before people stop collecting Beatles stuff.
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good write up as well. I like the point you made about the 'spread' being better because of PSA/SGC which is a great point. The auctions houses also create the very important function by delivering mr. regular guys high end collectibles to the eyes of the right people. The right auction houses (which account for some of that spread) really are the equalizer for a regular guy selling his card to get similar results as the pro guy trying to get max money.. |
I love flipping through some of the auction results. Some serious action in these right here.
A beater of this Johnny Unitas can be had for under $10. http://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/b...e?itemid=43358 Someone was an idiot when they paid 20k a few years ago for an Ozzie Smith PSA 10. http://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/b...e?itemid=42978 36k was a nose bleed price. Not sure what you call 54k. http://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/b...e?itemid=42980 You could own 100 PSA 7's or just 1 PSA 9. No clue what these generally sell for but $204k sounds like a very solid price. http://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/b...e?itemid=42871 |
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I am not entirely certain what you are getting at. The SMR was updated on all four of these examples listed based on these recent results. PSA is very conservative when it comes to pricing of low pop cards. All four have guide values that are no where close to these recent sales. If your point is that you can throw out this result I would disagree as it is a Pop 4 and the only sale in the liner notes is from 2003 and it went for $4,025 back then. |
I see the point is that guide values are usually pretty slow in reacting to the market (edit: in the high-end market in particular).
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A beater 1974 topps Dave Winfield rookie is a dollar etc. A beater Beater 1914 Cracker Jack Cobb still has real value.. |
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However, the people no longer collecting cards (because they died) was almost non-existent. That is still the case as the number of people born in the 1920's or 30s who collected BB cards as adults was almost nil. However 20 years from now, people born in the 50s and 60s, will start to die off. A much greater number of those people collected cards, so more cards, from their estates will enter the market. There will be less people buying, unless people born in the 90s and 00s take their place in equal numbers. This will result in a deflated market. |
money
I still think its dumb to spend big money on baseball cards
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Heck, in 10 years at least 10 people that posted today somewhere on net54 will announce to the world that they are getting out of the hobby only to not do that.. |
I did a Google search on that Joe Jackson and I see it sold for 65k in 2015 via Heritage.
What is the estimate on value today? |
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I get the feeling this guy disagrees with you. https://www.psacard.com/psasetregist...shedset/114624 |
A beautiful Joe Jackson.
And, Elvis deserved all the adulation he got, easily. |
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Elvis' body of work hasn't stood up well over time. I will stick by it. He was revolutionary for his day but his music hasn't stayed prominent.
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been playing Vegas to the retirees not the Coachella Fest like some of the bands that still matter do. Note: He'd be 82 so probably not playing anywhere |
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Some of my favorite cards I own are only $200-300 cards, but I like them more than cards that are worth more but could be replaced any day of the week simply by going to eBay. With $5,000 or $25,000 or even $100,000 to put into one card, I would rather have an absolute rarity than a condition rarity. That's not a criticism of your choice in collecting, but just an observation that many collectors have a different methodology for how they collect. |
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I don't see how anyone can state objectively that his music has not stood up over time. His music is timeless, and I'm not even the biggest Elvis fan (though I have been to Graceland). |
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In my opinion Elvis, the Beatles, James Brown and Motown will always have a place in music history long after folks stop googling "What da funk":eek: |
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Well then.
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I think people will recognize the name Elvis for many decades to come, but relatively few of them will enjoy listening to his music, so he's transcended his talents and entered the ranks of famous for being famous.
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PS the fact that I was unaware of this channel supports my argument that the Beatles don't resonate today as well as Elvis does. :) |
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Just my two cents but I would rather listen to Elvis than the Beatles as I think most if not all of their music has not age well at all either.
And I definitely would not want to watch any of Elvis or the Beatles movies. Again just my two cents on the topic. |
Everyone's entitled to their opinions. Elvis was a revolutionary musical performer, an actor, and a larger than life persona. As to the movies, they are not watched today really by anyone. The persona part had its day, but I wouldn't want to be looking for work as an Elvis impersonator these days. As to the music, so what that satellite radio has a station. They have a Jimmy Buffett channel too and I'd hardly argue that he's a revolutionary anything. Elvis sold a ton or records in his day and I am sure his estate sells relatively few these days. Graceland? Nowhere close to the tourist pull it was. (Don't believe the hype from Elvis Presley Enterprises, Inc.) Cool place I've been there twice. Planes are gone. Man has his place in rock and roll history.
Last time I was at Sun Studios all my tour guide wanted to talk about was Johnny Cash. |
I am not sure that I understand what is being argued here regarding Elvis/The Beatles etc. Of course much of their music would not hold up for today's generation. Music tastes change. Attitudes change. Most importantly, what Elvis and The Beatles did has been either mimicked or at least partially copied so much over the past 50+ years that it has watered down the original.
Like anything else they need to be viewed in the context of their time. Citizen Kane was a landmark film in 1939 for many many reasons. Those reasons soon became standard film making practice. 75 years later my kids watch it and only see the story and it being "just another film". Without the historical context this is what happens. Just because the music of Elvis or The Beatles may not "hold up" to today's generation doesn't make them any less important. In some ways, the influence of Elvis and The Beatles permiating every corner of the music industry has led to their own music not "holding up". It has been copied and mimicked so often that it has watered down the content of the original. Until you put them in their true historical context. Like a Citizen Kane. Tom C |
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And I am not sure where you see Elvis memorabilia values falling off a cliff. Admittedly I don't follow Elvis memorabilia. Our paths cross only with regard to autographs and movie posters. And these have not dropped measurably in price. As to the resonance of Elvis' music, there are parts of the country where it remains very popular. In those same areas the music of The Beatles likely seems to not resonate anymore. Just a matter of perspective. From my perspective, in the collecting areas where I see Elvis items, I do not see what you seem to see. Tom C |
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Greta Garbo and Rudolf Valentino memorabilia is still popularly collected, but their values have fallen as their stars have faded over the years.
However, if Mozart was still around he would be making a wealthy annual income from how much his music is played and recorded. I never understood the singular popularity of Elvis, which is not to say I'm saying he wasn't charismatic and without talent. But, as far as Mozart goes, even his elder Haydn said he was a singular once-in-a-hundred years genius. |
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As of four years ago, Elvis was the second-highest earning dead celebrity at $60 million a year, behind only Michael Jackson at $200 million. I can't imagine that has changed too dramatically since then.
http://www.celebritynetworth.com/art...d-celebrities/ |
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I personally don't think there is one correct way to collect. Some of my cards are rare and most are rare simply because they are in nice condition. I personally got way more enjoyment out of tracking down that set than I do paying through the nose for some bum in a PSA 10 just to add it to my registry set. When the topic of money in the hobby came up I really didn't give much thought to wrestling cards other than the highest graded have done the best and continue to do so. The wrestling card market is so small and most cards even in high grade are very affordable. I was speaking more in terms of the major sports as that is where real money is spent and card prices obviously for top level pieces go into the millions. I personally don't buy the idea that there is going to be some day right around the corner when the demand just fizzles right out. Look how easily the cards Donald Spence sold were absorbed. Cards represent history and just because someone didn't see them play doesn't mean they won't have an interest. The two most expensive cards I have ever seen pictures of are owned by someone in their thirties. Mickey Mantle was retired well before he was even born. |
Elvis was a hero to most
But he never meant $hit to me. --Public Enemy Musical tastes definitely differ by region, race, ethnicity, social class, etc. Elvis and Public Enemy are both in the rock n roll HOF for very different reasons and constituencies. Debating the merits of each against the other is meaningless out of context. It isn't baseball stats. Listen to what you like. As for the actual topic, I agree with most of what David P posted above. I am all about the rarity in what I collect. I don't get a buzz from a mainstream card the way I do from finding some obscure rarity. |
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Being an old fart at age 73, I fondly remember the days of Elvis and the Beatles and greatly enjoy listening to their music on Sirius-XM, but who or what is Public Enemy? :D
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PE in full effect, Brother!
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Having said that, I certainly respect others who have tastes that vary from mine. Agree with Adam -- pretty subjective stuff. Mark |
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They look like they should be in jail to me.
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Public Enemy still perform live and there all pushing 60 years old. The Rolling Stones of Hip-Hop culture!
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