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-   -   OT: Greatest Living Four (http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=208709)

tedzan 07-15-2015 10:01 AM

YOGI BERRA

WHITEY FORD

SANDY KOUFAX

WILLIE MAYS




TED Z
__________________________________________________ _____________________________________
Still searching for these 4 cards to complete my AMERICAN BEAUTY 460 sub-set (74 subjects)

CAMNITZ (hands over head)....DOYLE (portrait)....McGRAW (portrait-cap)....TINKER (bat off shoulder)
.

earlywynnfan 07-15-2015 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vintageclout (Post 1431454)
Sandy Koufax's standing amongst baseballs greatest pitchers ever will always be a huge conundrum with no definitive resolution in sight. While he is the irrefutable greatest peak value pitcher ever (1963 - 1966), his overall standing is marred with question marks. First & foremost is the fact that he excelled in the most formidable decade ever for pitchers. Through 1968, the 15 inch mound was a major reason for some of the most incredible single season pitching performances. It wasn't until they lowered the rubber to 10 inches in 1969 that a somewhat equal balance was restored. Additionally, how about Koufax's first 7 seasons which were extremely poor to average at best? How do you truly measure his extreme success vs. His extreme failures over a 7 year period? It all comes down to establishing an equitable balance between longevity and peak success and, sorry to say, Koufax falls short on this basis to the likes of Seaver. Carlton, Palmer, Johnson, Maddux, etc. That is why the JAWS concept of rating players is widely accepted by many experts for it measures a players career WAR AT 50% and his best 7 seasons at the remains 50% , thus combining peak value and longevity. Interestingly enough, excluding the cheater Roger Clemens, Seaver leads all post-WW II pitchers in both WAR & JAWS with Maddux and Johnson right behind Seaver. Simply srated, an incredible 4/5 year run that ranks as the finest ever is still not formidable enough to place a pitcher as king of the hill when it is not coupled with ANY additional formidable seasons.

I have an issue with the "irrefutable greatest peak value pitcher ever" statement. Why is Koufax' 4 years better than Lefty Grove's 1930-33? In fact, look at Grove's WAR for pitchers from 1930-1937, or even 1928-1937. NOBODY touches that dominance, not even a roided-up Clemens. Take what Grove did during the biggest hitter's era until the late 90's and move him into the pitching-friendly 60's, and he'd crush anyone.

Peter_Spaeth 07-15-2015 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan (Post 1431506)
I have an issue with the "irrefutable greatest peak value pitcher ever" statement. Why is Koufax' 4 years better than Lefty Grove's 1930-33? In fact, look at Grove's WAR for pitchers from 1930-1937, or even 1928-1937. NOBODY touches that dominance, not even a roided-up Clemens. Take what Grove did during the biggest hitter's era until the late 90's and move him into the pitching-friendly 60's, and he'd crush anyone.

Johnson and Alexander had some unbelievable 4 year stretches that I would bet rival Koufax statistically. on an era adjusted basis

earlywynnfan 07-15-2015 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 1431529)
Johnson and Alexander had some unbelievable 4 year stretches that I would bet rival Koufax statistically. on an era adjusted basis

Agreed. What I would give to go back 100 years ago, when Walter and Old Pete were absolutely dominating baseball.

packs 07-15-2015 11:23 AM

Don't forget the dominance of Big Ed Walsh either. From 1908 to 1912 he won 127 games with a 1.71 ERA and gave up 400 less hits than innings pitched.

Peter_Spaeth 07-15-2015 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tedzan (Post 1431503)
YOGI BERRA

WHITEY FORD

SANDY KOUFAX

WILLIE MAYS




TED Z
__________________________________________________ _____________________________________
Still searching for these 4 cards to complete my AMERICAN BEAUTY 460 sub-set (74 subjects)

CAMNITZ (hands over head)....DOYLE (portrait)....McGRAW (portrait-cap)....TINKER (bat off shoulder)
.

Yogi over Aaron???

Vintageclout 07-15-2015 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60 (Post 1431474)
That's your opinion. I was able to watch Koufax pitch. He was the best I've ever seen. His performance over those 4-5 seasons along with his brilliance in the post season make it easy for me to say he was the best pitcher of the modern era and the greatest lefty of all time.

You simply can't use JAWS for Koufax. First of all, bringing up his early years makes me question your knowledge of baseball history. In 1954, the Dodgers signed a player named Roberto Clemente as a bonus baby. Because they sent him to the minors, the Pirates were able to draft him that fall from the Dodgers. So, when the Dodgers signed Sandy Koufax in 1955, they weren't going to repeat that mistake. Koufax couldn't be sent to the minors. Unlike Tom Seaver, Randy Johnson, etc. , Koufax couldn't develop pitching against weak competition, he had to pitch against the best and his stats suffered.

Second, we don't know what Koufax would have done after 1966. He didn't have access to the modern medicine of today and chose to retire in his prime. There is no doubt in my mind that if he had chosen career over long term health, he would have continued to be the best pitcher in baseball, winning Cy Youngs, MVPS and World Championships and this wouldn't even be a debate.

Never said he wasn't the best pitcher at his best....unquestionably the best peak value pitcher ever. But when iconic pitchers such as Seaver, Maddux, Johnson and Palmer, just to mention a few are performing at a superior level for 10-15 years, a 5 year pitcher cannot be rated ahead of them.

Vintageclout 07-15-2015 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan (Post 1431506)
I have an issue with the "irrefutable greatest peak value pitcher ever" statement. Why is Koufax' 4 years better than Lefty Grove's 1930-33? In fact, look at Grove's WAR for pitchers from 1930-1937, or even 1928-1937. NOBODY touches that dominance, not even a roided-up Clemens. Take what Grove did during the biggest hitter's era until the late 90's and move him into the pitching-friendly 60's, and he'd crush anyone.

In that 4 year period, Koufax averaged an ERA of approximately 1.90 along with 300+ strikeouts a year! Not even Grove posted numbers like that at his best. However, you make a SUPER point regarding the fact Grove's great seasons were during a hitters era vs. Koufax's prime being in a pitcher's era. Very Interesting!

scottglevy 07-15-2015 12:25 PM

Kind of a shame that none of the newer folks make a compelling enough case to be strongly considered for this list ... with the exception of Maddux or as a stretch Jeter IMO.

Vintageclout 07-15-2015 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60 (Post 1431474)
That's your opinion. I was able to watch Koufax pitch. He was the best I've ever seen. His performance over those 4-5 seasons along with his brilliance in the post season make it easy for me to say he was the best pitcher of the modern era and the greatest lefty of all time.

You simply can't use JAWS for Koufax. First of all, bringing up his early years makes me question your knowledge of baseball history. In 1954, the Dodgers signed a player named Roberto Clemente as a bonus baby. Because they sent him to the minors, the Pirates were able to draft him that fall from the Dodgers. So, when the Dodgers signed Sandy Koufax in 1955, they weren't going to repeat that mistake. Koufax couldn't be sent to the minors. Unlike Tom Seaver, Randy Johnson, etc. , Koufax couldn't develop pitching against weak competition, he had to pitch against the best and his stats suffered.

Second, we don't know what Koufax would have done after 1966. He didn't have access to the modern medicine of today and chose to retire in his prime. There is no doubt in my mind that if he had chosen career over long term health, he would have continued to be the best pitcher in baseball, winning Cy Youngs, MVPS and World Championships and this wouldn't even be a debate.

Question my knowledge of baseball? Where did that come from genius? Fyi, Tom Seaver spent ONE season in AAA before being called up by the WORST team in baseball and won an incredible 16 games with a very bad '67 Mets team. It took Koufax 7 seasons to figure it out. If you can pitch, you can pitch. Bob Feller came to the majors virtually right out of high school and was blowing away hitters his first season.....your serve!!!

Peter_Spaeth 07-15-2015 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vintageclout (Post 1431554)
Question my knowledge of baseball? Where did that come from genius? Fyi, Tom Seaver spent ONE season in AAA before being called up by the WORST team in baseball and won an incredible 16 games with a very bad '67 Mets team. It took Koufax 7 seasons to figure it out. If you can pitch, you can pitch. Bob Feller came to the majors virtually right out of high school and was blowing away hitters his first season.....your serve!!!

If memory serves Dwight Gooden was tearing through major league batters at a very tender age. I hardly think Koufax's career path can be attributed to not being in the minors. It took him until his 7th year to find his control, reportedly because someone -- one of the catchers -- finally figured out he was overthrowing.

glynparson 07-15-2015 12:41 PM

Best 4
 
Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr. , Willie Mays, Hank Aaron

rats60 07-15-2015 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bbcard1 (Post 1431496)
It goes back to how you judge them. The value over the career was greater for Marichal than Koufax as he won 100 more games (nearly) and had a better win percentage on teams that were not as successful. He was not popular, both because of his nationality and deportment and the fact that he wrapped a bat around John Roseboro's head. That contributed to his poor showing in popularity contests. If you want to make the argument the Koufax was better over a short period of time and Marichal was better over a long period of time, I have no beef with that.

Marichal may have accumulated more counting stats because Koufax retired at a younger age. I don't equate that with being better over a long period of time. Koufax in his short career led the league in far more catagories and more times than Marichal. Marichal for his whole career only led the league in wins 1 1/2 times, era 1 time, Ks 0 times, FIP 0 times, WHIP 2 times. Only 1 no hitter, 0 Cy Youngs, highest MVP finish 5th, 0 World Championships, 0 World Series MVPs. I don't see the value. I think voters were more swayed by his on field performance than his nationality or the Roseboro incident.

Koufax's teams were more successful because Koufax was so great. Marichal had Mays, McCovey, Cepeda and Perry as teammates, but came up short vs. Koufax and Drysdale. They only overcame the Dodgers in 62 when Koufax injured his hand in July, missed 2 months and was ineffective pitching injured in September.

Peter_Spaeth 07-15-2015 12:52 PM

Marichal's 63-66 is obviously a little short of Koufax's, but by surprisingly little if you look at up. He won 94 games in that stretch compared to 97 for Koufax, and his ERA and WAR while not as good are not that far short either.

Jlighter 07-15-2015 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scottglevy (Post 1431552)
Kind of a shame that none of the newer folks make a compelling enough case to be strongly considered for this list ... with the exception of Maddux or as a stretch Jeter IMO.

I think a lot of this has to do with nostalgia. Pedro had a sub 2 ERA in the year 2000, a year with the highest amount of run production since I believe the 30s. He had an ERA+ of almost 300. Rickey is first all time in steals and runs, while being second in walks.

Peter_Spaeth 07-15-2015 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jlighter (Post 1431568)
I think a lot of this has to do with nostalgia. Pedro had a sub 2 ERA in the year 2000, a year with the highest amount of run production since I believe the 30s. He had an ERA+ of almost 300. Rickey is first all time in steals and runs, while being second in walks.

But for steroids, Bonds and ARod and maybe Pujols would merit very serious consideration as just as good as Mays and Aaron etc. Griffey too if he hadn't fallen off the cliff quite so young. So I don't think it's only nostalgia but the steroid era.

rats60 07-15-2015 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vintageclout (Post 1431554)
Question my knowledge of baseball? Where did that come from genius? Fyi, Tom Seaver spent ONE season in AAA before being called up by the WORST team in baseball and won an incredible 16 games with a very bad '67 Mets team. It took Koufax 7 seasons to figure it out. If you can pitch, you can pitch. Bob Feller came to the majors virtually right out of high school and was blowing away hitters his first season.....your serve!!!

And Tom Seaver went straight from high school to one season in the minors to the Mets? Could have fooled me. I thought he pitched in college for USC. I guess you don't know as much as you thought or were you just being deceptive thinking I didn't know that?

darwinbulldog 07-15-2015 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60 (Post 1431570)
And Tom Seaver went straight from high school to one season in the minors to the Mets? Could have fooled me. I thought he pitched in college for USC. I guess you don't know as much as you thought or were you just being deceptive thinking I didn't know that?

In fairness, you just made up the part about Seaver going straight from high school to the minors.

tedzan 07-15-2015 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 1431536)
Yogi over Aaron???


Peter

I can never tell when you're serious, or just jiving ?


Anyhow, Yogi is first in my book.

Tell me....what other living BB player has contributed more to the success of his team than Yogi ?

Yeh....go ahead and check-out the stats of other players currently living....then compare.

I don't have to waste my time searching thru numbers....for I'm fortunate to be old enough to have seen Yogi play from 1947 to 1963.
And, trust me I saw many, many Yankees games over those 17 years.

Furthermore, I followed the Milwaukee Braves from 1954 thru 1964. They were my favorite NL team when I was young.

From a young kid, I have always contended, that for the most part, the key to a Championship team is a "super-star" catcher.
And, Yogi's all-around performance exemplifies this.



TED Z
.

earlywynnfan 07-15-2015 01:17 PM

Only slightly off-topic:

Had sports talk radio on the other night, which I almost never listen to because, well, the callers are all idiots who clearly don't know as much as me!

So they were choosing the Top 4 from each team's history. Finally, an interesting topic. The broadcaster throws out 8 names, you have to pick 4. When I turned it on someone was putting out a case for Jack Morris, which was fun.

Then a caller wants to talk Twins/Senators: "Bert Blyleven." Announcer agrees. "Rod Carew" duh, check. "Harmon Killebrew." Check. Now, I'm not expecting this guy to know about Goose Goslin or Sam Rice, but he next says "Joe Mauer." The broadcaster says "Hold it right there, aren't you forgetting Walter Johnson?" "Yeah, I know about him, I just love Mauer." THIS IS WHEN I PUNCH MY DASHBOARD!!!


Sorry, just had to share that.

Peter_Spaeth 07-15-2015 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tedzan (Post 1431577)
Peter

I can never tell when you're serious, or just jiving ?


Anyhow, Yogi is first in my book.

Tell me....what other living BB player has contributed more to the success of his team than Yogi ?

Yeh....go ahead and check-out the stats of other players currently living....then compare.

I don't have to waste my time searching thru numbers....for I'm fortunate to be old enough to have seen Yogi play from 1947 to 1963.
And, trust me I saw many, many Yankees games over those 17 years.

Furthermore, I followed the Milwaukee Braves from 1954 thru 1964. They were my favorite NL team when I was young.

From a young kid, I have always contended, that for the most part, the key to a Championship team is a "super-star" catcher.
And, Yogi's all-around performance exemplifies this.



TED Z
.

Ted -- as to who contributed more to success -- Mantle on the same team, no? I know he is dead but my point is Yogi was not even the best player on his own team?

Jlighter 07-15-2015 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 1431569)
But for steroids, Bonds and ARod and maybe Pujols would merit very serious consideration as just as good as Mays and Aaron etc. Griffey too if he hadn't fallen off the cliff quite so young. So I don't think it's only nostalgia but the steroid era.

I know, which is why we should give even greater respect for the pitchers who made it through the juiced era, obviously if they too are clean Clemens *cough. Maddux, Rivera, Pedro and Johnson all deserve to be in contention for top 4 living, and probably at least one should be on the list.

packs 07-15-2015 02:19 PM

Honestly I think I would rank Mariano Rivera the greatest inning per inning pitcher of all time. If it's game 7, bottom of the 9th and I'm up by 1 run, give me my choice of any pitcher in history to pitch that inning and I'm going to pick Mariano Rivera every time. That says something.

Peter_Spaeth 07-15-2015 02:22 PM

I had forgotten that the Big Unit won four Cy Youngs in a row.

tbob 07-15-2015 02:59 PM

With the game on the line and a win is crucial, how can you go with anyone other than Bob Gibson? Too many collectors here never had a chance to see him pitch. Koufax was great, but in the BIG game, Gibson was the man.

My other 3: Mays, Aaron and Yogi. Berra was CLUTCH. Bench was great, Berra was better.

tbob 07-15-2015 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beatles Guy (Post 1431349)
Seventh game of the World Series, who do you pitch - Seaver, Ryan, Koufax or Gibson? I have to go Gibson.

+1. Absolutely.

Peter_Spaeth 07-15-2015 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tbob (Post 1431612)
With the game on the line and a win is crucial, how can you go with anyone other than Bob Gibson? Too many collectors here never had a chance to see him pitch. Koufax was great, but in the BIG game, Gibson was the man.

My other 3: Mays, Aaron and Yogi. Berra was CLUTCH. Bench was great, Berra was better.

Koufax WS ERA 0.95. Gibson 1.89. Gibson had a better WL. I would call it even at best.

aro13 07-15-2015 04:21 PM

Top 4
 
Bonds
Mays
Aaron
Schmidt, Henderson or Morgan

Pitchers
Seaver
Gibson
Clemens
Pedro

Vintageclout 07-15-2015 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60 (Post 1431570)
And Tom Seaver went straight from high school to one season in the minors to the Mets? Could have fooled me. I thought he pitched in college for USC. I guess you don't know as much as you thought or were you just being deceptive thinking I didn't know that?

Never said he did genius. Just pointing out that at a MAJOR LEAGUE level, a 22/23 year old Seaver figured it out right away and didn't need "breaking in" with a horrible team. Seaver posted an incredible 2.48 ERA AFTER 10 SEASONS and 2.60 ERA AFTER 15 SEASONS!!! After 12 seasons & retirement, Koufax wax 2.76 n the finest era for pitchers since WWI??? Koufax definitely the more dominate pitcher at his best but over a career he falls short!

Econteachert205 07-15-2015 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs (Post 1431595)
Honestly I think I would rank Mariano Rivera the greatest inning per inning pitcher of all time. If it's game 7, bottom of the 9th and I'm up by 1 run, give me my choice of any pitcher in history to pitch that inning and I'm going to pick Mariano Rivera every time. That says something.

True but how did you get to that spot in the first place?No starter, closer moot.

tedzan 07-15-2015 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 1431583)
Ted -- as to who contributed more to success -- Mantle on the same team, no? I know he is dead but my point is Yogi was not even the best player on his own team?


Peter

Why are you changing the subject matter ?

Aren't we discussing living BB players ? ?

If you want a conversation regarding Mickey, I welcome it. Let's include other teammates of Yogi's that were with him for a total of 14 - World Series............
DiMag, Maris, Rizzuto, Ford, Lopat, Don Larsen, Billy Martin and Johnny Mize. I've met all these guys....and, I've enjoyed some nice conversations with them.

So, bring it on, guy.

Incidentally, does any BB player besides Yogi have 10 - World Championship rings ?


TED Z
.

Peter_Spaeth 07-15-2015 06:43 PM

Ted, my point was that it's hard (for me anyhow) to consider Yogi the greatest living baseball player of them all when, for most of his career, he was not even the best player on his team. Yogi was a .280 hitter with pretty good power and, in fairness, a great catcher. According to the era-adjusted stats on Baseball Reference, he ranks 6th among catchers. Let's just say for argument's sake his intangibles move him higher. I still don't see how you can say, objectively and not influenced by your personal feelings for him, that he was better than Mays, Aaron, or a host of others. They just aren't comparable in baseball terms.

aro13 07-15-2015 08:09 PM

Berra
 
I could see putting Berra in the top 4. He is either the best or second best catcher ever depending on your opinion of Johnny Bench. If you think catcher is the most important position on the diamond then Berra is not a reach.

Quote:

It took him (Koufax) until his 7th year to find his control, reportedly because someone -- one of the catchers -- finally figured out he was overthrowing.
Or maybe it was because the Dodgers moved to Dodger Stadium. If Koufax had pitched his entire career in Dodger Stadium his numbers would be even more mind boggling.

Peter_Spaeth 07-15-2015 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aro13 (Post 1431748)
I could see putting Berra in the top 4. He is either the best or second best catcher ever depending on your opinion of Johnny Bench. If you think catcher is the most important position on the diamond then Berra is not a reach.



Or maybe it was because the Dodgers moved to Dodger Stadium. If Koufax had pitched his entire career in Dodger Stadium his numbers would be even more mind boggling.

They moved there in 1958. He only pitched 2 full seasons in Brooklyn. Anyhow, hard to believe that was the difference, as he was dominant on the road once he achieved his stride.

HOF Auto Rookies 07-15-2015 10:46 PM

I vote Bonds, A-Rod, Pedro and Mays for my humble opinion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Jdoggs 07-15-2015 10:53 PM

Mays, bonds, Clemens, Miguel Cabrera.

grainsley 07-15-2015 10:57 PM

Glad to see Frank Robinson getting several mentions....in my opinion (and they didn't ask me) one of the most under valued and under appreciated players of all time. Move over Bench, make room for Robby, put him in there with Hank, Willie, and Sandy....and Sandy is on the bubble, due to his short but outstanding career.

robw1959 07-15-2015 11:10 PM

Greatest Four Living Baseball Players
 
I will go with Aaron, Mays, Frank Robinson, and Koufax.

Louieman 07-15-2015 11:31 PM

Mays, Bonds, Henderson, Bob Gibson

Bocabirdman 07-16-2015 04:06 AM

Just like in the first year of Gilligan's Island where the Professor and Mary Ann got no "props" it clearly is Mays n' Aaron (or Aaron n' Mays) "and the rest".

kgibson 07-16-2015 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tbob (Post 1431612)
With the game on the line and a win is crucial, how can you go with anyone other than Bob Gibson? Too many collectors here never had a chance to see him pitch. Koufax was great, but in the BIG game, Gibson was the man.

Here's some Gibby World Series info. In his 9 games he was 7-2 with 5 consecutive victories. In those 9 games he started he pitched 8 complete games. The other game he pitched 8 innings then he was lifted for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 8th. And speaking of his hitting, in his 9 World Series games he hit 2 home runs. Tim McCarver said "Bob Gibson is the luckiest pitcher I ever saw. He always pitches when the other team doesn't score any runs."

Vintageclout 07-16-2015 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgibson (Post 1431910)
Here's some Gibby World Series info. In his 9 games he was 7-2 with 5 consecutive victories. In those 9 games he started he pitched 8 complete games. The other game he pitched 8 innings then he was lifted for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 8th. And speaking of his hitting, in his 9 World Series games he hit 2 home runs. Tim McCarver said "Bob Gibson is the luckiest pitcher I ever saw. He always pitches when the other team doesn't score any runs."

Very true and people sometimes forget Gibson's 1968 Game 7 loss was largely due to Curt Flood's misplayed fly ball. the outcome might have been different.

Tabe 07-16-2015 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 1431777)
They moved there in 1958. He only pitched 2 full seasons in Brooklyn. Anyhow, hard to believe that was the difference, as he was dominant on the road once he achieved his stride.

The Dodgers moved into Dodgers Stadium in 1962.

Tabe 07-16-2015 09:47 AM

For all the talk about Koufax's amazing 1963-66 run, only one guy has ever led the major leagues in ERA four straight seasons:

Clayton Kershaw

Tabe 07-16-2015 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgibson (Post 1431910)
Here's some Gibby World Series info. In his 9 games he was 7-2 with 5 consecutive victories. In those 9 games he started he pitched 8 complete games. The other game he pitched 8 innings then he was lifted for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 8th. And speaking of his hitting, in his 9 World Series games he hit 2 home runs. Tim McCarver said "Bob Gibson is the luckiest pitcher I ever saw. He always pitches when the other team doesn't score any runs."

He actually won 7 straight - his last 2 starts in 1964, all 3 in 1967, and the first 2 in 1968.

Fun stat: Bob Gibson wasn't knocked out of a single game in 1968. Every time he got pulled, it was for a pinch hitter.

darwinbulldog 07-16-2015 10:09 AM

Unexpected stat: Zack Greinke's 2015 Adjusted ERA+ is better than Gibson's 1968.

Not that I expect it to hold up, but it's a hell of an accomplishment to carry that past the All-Star break.

Peter_Spaeth 07-16-2015 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tabe (Post 1431952)
The Dodgers moved into Dodgers Stadium in 1962.

WIth year after year of an ERA under 2 one suspects he was pretty good on the road too. I am doubting Dodger Stadium explains his greatness.

Peter_Spaeth 07-16-2015 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tabe (Post 1431954)
He actually won 7 straight - his last 2 starts in 1964, all 3 in 1967, and the first 2 in 1968.

Fun stat: Bob Gibson wasn't knocked out of a single game in 1968. Every time he got pulled, it was for a pinch hitter.

How the hell do you lose 9 with a 1.12 ERA? Rhetorical question, but wow.

Peter_Spaeth 07-16-2015 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tabe (Post 1431954)
He actually won 7 straight - his last 2 starts in 1964, all 3 in 1967, and the first 2 in 1968.

Fun stat: Bob Gibson wasn't knocked out of a single game in 1968. Every time he got pulled, it was for a pinch hitter.

Is there any evidence that today's pitchers, who pitch every 5th day instead of every 4th, and of course are on pitch counts and rarely go the distance, are hurt less than back when men were men?

darwinbulldog 07-16-2015 10:26 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 1431967)
How the hell do you lose 9 with a 1.12 ERA? Rhetorical question, but wow.

Hi, I'm Ned Garvin.

Career ERA: 2.72 (better than some HOFers, Sandy Koufax for example)
Career record: 58-97
Seasons with a winning record: 0

aro13 07-16-2015 10:47 AM

Koufax
 
Quote:

WIth year after year of an ERA under 2 one suspects he was pretty good on the road too. I am doubting Dodger Stadium explains his greatness.
Peter - Dodger Stadium does not explain his greatness but it helps to explain why he made the big alleged jump forward in 1962 and say not 1960.

In 1960 on the road 105 innings 3.00 era 8 hrs allowed 51 bbs 126 ks
In 1960 at home 70 innings 5.27 era 12 hrs allowed 49 bbs 71 ks
In 1961 on the road 123 innings 2.77 era 8 hrs allowed 45 bbs 124 ks
In 1961 at home 132 innings 4.22 era 19 hrs allowed 51 bbs 145 ks
In 1962 on road 81 innings 3.53 era 7 hrs allowed 32 bbs 98 ks
In 1962 at home 102 innings 1.75 era 6 hrs allowed 25 bbs 118 ks

For his career at Dodger Stadium he was 57-15 with a 1.37 era.
For his career on the road after 1962 he was 54-19 with a 2.54 era.

The point is that Koufax did not make a great jump forward in 1962 because he finally listened and took something off his fastball and threw his curve when he was behind in the count. All that happened was he went from a park (the Coliseum with a 250 foot left field line) that added 75 points a year to his era to one that took off 60 points a year.

He was already very good or even great - look at his road numbers in 1960 and 1961.

Peter_Spaeth 07-16-2015 10:51 AM

Did Drysdale have a similar trajectory? Or was the old park only tough for lefties?

Interesting stats, although causation is sort of difficult to prove. Any other lefties who dramatically improved after 62?

egbeachley 07-16-2015 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 1431371)
There was nobody better for a 4 or maybe 5 year stretch, but Koufax's career doesn't touch Seaver, or Gibson, or Carlton, or Clemens, or Maddux.

Best four (or five) year stretch would be Pedro Martinez. Look it up, especially WAR. Also, Pedro had better career numbers in almost every category than Koufax.

Sandy Koufax is not even in the top 5 for pitchers.

aro13 07-16-2015 11:15 AM

Drysdale and Koufax
 
Peter - For Koufax the move to Dodger Stadium, the raising of the mound height and the redefinition of the strike zone in 1963 are all factors.

Drysdale's numbers did not improve as dramatically but he was far better in Dodger Stadium. His lowest era at Dodger Stadium was 1.37 and his highest was 2.60. On the road his best era was 2.39 and his worst was 4.65.

Between 1963 and 1968 Dodger Stadium in particular was a very tough place to hit. The Dodgers scored 100 more runs on the road then at home virturally every season between 1963 and 1968.

Peter_Spaeth 07-16-2015 11:29 AM

I will have to go back and read Bill James, who is very hip to park effects, to see what he says about Koufax. Given how close Marichal was to him statistically over the four year stretch, I wonder if they were really closer in ability than the conventional wisdom would have it.

brewing 07-16-2015 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by egbeachley (Post 1431994)
Best four (or five) year stretch would be Pedro Martinez. Look it up, especially WAR. Also, Pedro had better career numbers in almost every category than Koufax.



Sandy Koufax is not even in the top 5 for pitchers.


I agree. According to their stats, Pedro was more dominant.

It's really not close.

There was talk about a bump in Koufax numbers in 1962. Isn't that the year the Mets and Colt 45's joined the league.

Maybe it's human nature to romanticize about the past. I know we are all major league scouts and since we saw "fill in the name" we can attest to their greatness. Or maybe statistics are all we have to make a true objective opinion.

SteveMitchell 07-16-2015 02:15 PM

A Greatest Living Pitcher's record ought to include longevity
 
My greatest living list: Mays, Aaron, Frank Robinson, Berra and Bench.

As for pitchers, I would like to associate my remarks with Vintageclout. I believe a greatest living pitcher ought to have a substantial (including lengthy) body of work by such men as Seaver, Maddux and Randy Johnson.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vintageclout (Post 1431454)
Sandy Koufax's standing amongst baseballs greatest pitchers ever will always be a huge conundrum with no definitive resolution in sight. While he is the irrefutable greatest peak value pitcher ever (1963 - 1966), his overall standing is marred with question marks. First & foremost is the fact that he excelled in the most formidable decade ever for pitchers. Through 1968, the 15 inch mound was a major reason for some of the most incredible single season pitching performances. It wasn't until they lowered the rubber to 10 inches in 1969 that a somewhat equal balance was restored. Additionally, how about Koufax's first 7 seasons which were extremely poor to average at best? How do you truly measure his extreme success vs. His extreme failures over a 7 year period? It all comes down to establishing an equitable balance between longevity and peak success and, sorry to say, Koufax falls short on this basis to the likes of Seaver. Carlton, Palmer, Johnson, Maddux, etc. That is why the JAWS concept of rating players is widely accepted by many experts for it measures a players career WAR AT 50% and his best 7 seasons at the remains 50% , thus combining peak value and longevity. Interestingly enough, excluding the cheater Roger Clemens, Seaver leads all post-WW II pitchers in both WAR & JAWS with Maddux and Johnson right behind Seaver. Simply srated, an incredible 4/5 year run that ranks as the finest ever is still not formidable enough to place a pitcher as king of the hill when it is not coupled with ANY additional formidable seasons.

and

"Never said he wasn't the best pitcher at his best....unquestionably the best peak value pitcher ever. But when iconic pitchers such as Seaver, Maddux, Johnson and Palmer, just to mention a few are performing at a superior level for 10-15 years, a 5 year pitcher cannot be rated ahead of them."

bigtrain 07-16-2015 02:40 PM

As I am old enough to have seen Mays, Aaron and those of that era in the prime of their careers, I would have at least a half dozen players ahead of Bench. The list would start with Yogi Berra, who I consider the greatest catcher of all time. Frank Robinson, Seaver, Schmidt, Maddux come to mind immediately.

bbcard1 07-16-2015 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60 (Post 1431563)
Marichal may have accumulated more counting stats because Koufax retired at a younger age. I don't equate that with being better over a long period of time. Koufax in his short career led the league in far more catagories and more times than Marichal. Marichal for his whole career only led the league in wins 1 1/2 times, era 1 time, Ks 0 times, FIP 0 times, WHIP 2 times. Only 1 no hitter, 0 Cy Youngs, highest MVP finish 5th, 0 World Championships, 0 World Series MVPs. I don't see the value. I think voters were more swayed by his on field performance than his nationality or the Roseboro incident.

Koufax's teams were more successful because Koufax was so great. Marichal had Mays, McCovey, Cepeda and Perry as teammates, but came up short vs. Koufax and Drysdale. They only overcame the Dodgers in 62 when Koufax injured his hand in July, missed 2 months and was ineffective pitching injured in September.

We can agree that Koufax had a short career and that for a decent part of that short career he was at best an adequate pitcher. For a relatively short time (4 years or so) he was as good as anybody ever. Marichal was an upper tier pitcher for a very long time.

Tabe 07-16-2015 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 1431966)
WIth year after year of an ERA under 2 one suspects he was pretty good on the road too. I am doubting Dodger Stadium explains his greatness.

From 1963-66, his road ERAs: 2.31, 2.93, 2.72, 1.96
and his home ERAs: 1.38, 0.85, 1.38, 1.52


Obviously, Koufax's road numbers for that stretch are still outstanding. But it's also obvious that he was a LOT more mortal on the road than at home. If he replicated his road performance at home in each of those years, he'd have led the league just once in that span instead of all four years. In 1964, he wouldn't have made the top 10.

So, in conclusion, yeah, Dodgers Stadium helped Koufax's greatness. Quite a bit. Guys putting up 2.50, 2.60, 2.70 ERAs in that era were fairly common. And that's what Koufax did outside of Chavez Ravine.

Tabe 07-16-2015 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewing (Post 1432005)
I agree. According to their stats, Pedro was more dominant.

It's really not close.

Pedro's four year run from 1997-2000 where his four ERA+ stats total up to 916 (and average of 229 per year) was just insane. Three seasons of 2.07 or lower in an era where 20+ guys had seasons 45 homers - incredible (by contrast, there were *2* in the NL from 1963-66).

Peter_Spaeth 07-16-2015 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tabe (Post 1432086)
From 1963-66, his road ERAs: 2.31, 2.93, 2.72, 1.96
and his home ERAs: 1.38, 0.85, 1.38, 1.52


Obviously, Koufax's road numbers for that stretch are still outstanding. But it's also obvious that he was a LOT more mortal on the road than at home. If he replicated his road performance at home in each of those years, he'd have led the league just once in that span instead of all four years. In 1964, he wouldn't have made the top 10.

So, in conclusion, yeah, Dodgers Stadium helped Koufax's greatness. Quite a bit. Guys putting up 2.50, 2.60, 2.70 ERAs in that era were fairly common. And that's what Koufax did outside of Chavez Ravine.

Do you have a view then on whether Marichal, for the same period, was as good as Koufax?

aro13 07-16-2015 07:58 PM

Koufax vs Marichal
 
Quote:

Do you have a view then on whether Marichal, for the same period, was as good as Koufax?
Peter - My point was that Koufax became Koufax when the Dodgers started playing home games in Dodger Stadium, not because he learned to throw his fastball with more command or throw more strikes with his curveball. He benefitted from playing his home games in Dodger Stadium but so did every other pitcher that pitched there. He was just better. Just because Koufax had a bigger home park advantage at Dodger Stadium than other pitchers does not mean he should be evaluated differently.

There is an outfielder who was a lock first ballot HOFer and considered a legend of the game and if you doubled his road numbers his career totals would have looked like this:
3194 hits 430 homers .264 average .357 OBP and .422 SLG - Hall Worthy?

Bill James addressed the Marichal - Koufax question "(I always wondered) whether Koufax's advantages were just park effects. Had Marichal pitched in Dodgers Stadium and Koufax in Candlestick, it is quite likely that Marichal would have had lower ERA's than Koufax, and Marichal might have won the Cy Young awards.
However, since I have the Win Shares, I now realize that Koufax was in fact more valuable than Marichal in those key seasons."

btcarfagno 07-16-2015 08:21 PM

Mays
Aaron
F Robinson
Pedro Martinez

Tom C

btcarfagno 07-16-2015 08:27 PM

Pedro > Sandy

To me it's not close.

Tom C

Peter_Spaeth 07-16-2015 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aro13 (Post 1432157)
Peter - My point was that Koufax became Koufax when the Dodgers started playing home games in Dodger Stadium, not because he learned to throw his fastball with more command or throw more strikes with his curveball. He benefitted from playing his home games in Dodger Stadium but so did every other pitcher that pitched there. He was just better. Just because Koufax had a bigger home park advantage at Dodger Stadium than other pitchers does not mean he should be evaluated differently.

There is an outfielder who was a lock first ballot HOFer and considered a legend of the game and if you doubled his road numbers his career totals would have looked like this:
3194 hits 430 homers .264 average .357 OBP and .422 SLG - Hall Worthy?

Bill James addressed the Marichal - Koufax question "(I always wondered) whether Koufax's advantages were just park effects. Had Marichal pitched in Dodgers Stadium and Koufax in Candlestick, it is quite likely that Marichal would have had lower ERA's than Koufax, and Marichal might have won the Cy Young awards.
However, since I have the Win Shares, I now realize that Koufax was in fact more valuable than Marichal in those key seasons."

I am sure you are talking about Yaz.

Tabe 07-17-2015 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 1432172)
I am sure you are talking about Yaz.

Yes, he is.

Yaz is another guy I've ragged on quite a bit on here, for this same reason.

Tabe 07-17-2015 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth (Post 1432104)
Do you have a view then on whether Marichal, for the same period, was as good as Koufax?

Hmmm...good question.

Career-wise, at Dodger Stadium for Juan Marichal:

14-11, 2.36 ERA, 0.981 WHIP in 29 starts.

And Candlestick:

122-58, 2.67 ERA


Sandy Koufax at Dodger Stadium:

57-15, 1.37 ERA in 85 starts.

And Candlestick:

7-7, 3.58 ERA in 16 starts


So, what does that tell us? Not a whole heckuva lot.

For 1962-66, I'd say Koufax was better, but the difference was small. The one thing Juan did than Koufax - he had seasons where he was actually better on the road than at home (like 1965).


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