It is only stupid if you can't sell it to the next sucker. Sorta like a CDO...

Heh, a nice example of how modern card packs are just lottery tickets for all ages.

The market for this stuff is far bigger than most think. While it doesn't make a lot of sense on the whole, some of the super high grade 1980s 'classic' rookie cards ('76 Walter Payton, '81 Montana, '79-80 Bird/Magic, etc) are where the interest lies for those who remember those players from childhood and the hotshots with a lot of money would rather spend it on something they have an emotional tie to.

The current card 1-1 shiny market is another branch of that. They've totally bought in to the concept and while they may lose big once in awhile, the wins are enough to keep them working it. Those 1-1s have completely changed the rookie card market.

Again, it doesn't make a lot of sense (I keep thinking "Mark Prior") but it's a very active, vibrant part of the hobby. I think the collectors/speculators of that market do appreciate the pre-War stuff very much, but for a variety of reasons (accessibility to product being one), this is what they spend most of their time chasing.

So a quick question... Was this card pulled from a pack, auctioned pre-circulation, or what?

I'd like to think some 8 year old just paid for a year at community college with this thing.

Back in the day I was trying to pull $20 Griffey Jr. Rookies. My how the times change.

Here is a link to the guy first posting he is putting it on eBay. I believe he pulled it from some collector box/pack thing.

http://www.freedomcardboard.com/foru...hp?f=2&t=90243

I dont collect or like the new stuff, but I like to follow these bigger events.

IMO like others said, the first time this card sells will be the most it ever sells for. Even if Strasburg becomes the best ML pitcher ever!


PS.Collectors Weekly says the Card has 1897 watchers now.

The card was pulled from what's called a jumbo case; so instead of the conventional packs that you would find, the packs that this particular card was pulled from had about twice the normal number of cards you would find in a standard pack.

I spoke to a cardshop owner over the weekend and I think there's more to this than what meets the eye; more specifically, supply vs demand. As I spoke to him, the jumbo boxes/cases apparently have skyrocketed in cost after release. They were released at about $100 per box, but now command nearly $200 per box. Also, the increase in price in the secondary market occurred as for whatever reason, large quantity of the Bowman cards were not purchased by dealers, thereby creating a limited amount of product released. (although without actual production numbers from Topps, this is questionable)

One other thing about Bowman which hasn't been mentioned yet is that Topps releases the Bowman product with the moniker, "Home of the rookie card" label. I don't buy very much modern day stuff, but when I do, it's usually Bowman. In addition to modern day players, there's several players that are up and coming.

As per the modern day marketing etiquette, Bowman has base cards, then cards with different borders (refractor, super refractor, x-fractor) and then couples the rarity with the insertion of autographs. Of course, this material is released based on odds - as mentioned in several posts before, much like a lottery (1 in 1000 chance for a refractor, 1 in 10,000 chance for an super refractor).

So there are several variables that make the Straussburg card so valuable to modern day collectors:

1. Considered first TRUE rookie card (although he had an earlier release).
2. It's a x-refractor labeled at 1/1.
3. Speculators like him

Lastly, back in the day as I was leaving the hobby, 1992 to be more specific, Topps had a hit on their hands with the Bowman product released then - Manny Ramirez, Mike Piazza rookies - all skyrocketing because it was a great product with supposed limited release. Many liken the 2010 Bowman product to the 1992 release.

Personally, I'm sticking with the pre-war stuff (I just bought my first Magee - corrected - card and I'm super excited about it - probably far more excited about that card than the Straussburg - and quite frankly, if I had obtained that card, I would have it shoved up on Ebay too - to buy more pre-war :D )

I would think the news of this Strasburg card already being pulled from a pack would cause lower demand for the product.

Someone already won the lottery.

I thought about the same thing too - but here's what everyone is chasing now, but no one is really talking about.

Follow me for second:

That Strasburg is a 1 of 1 x-refractor. So only one printed of THAT card. From my post before, there's an inclusion of another card that belongs to him that is ALSO 1 of 1.

His autographed 1 of 1 x-refractor. Wait till that one is pulled.

I wish they put in auto'd T206's in the tobacco packs....that would have been cool hehehehe

I cant speak to the Strasburg specifically, but I can say with absolute certainty (across the sportscard spectrum) that not all limited edition print cards are inserted randomly in packs. They have ways of eeking out into the public, into the hands of related parties, etc....and they never once see the shine of foil.

With Upper Deck, yes, I completely agree. I believe Mr. McWilliams has his own printing press and holographic stickers located in his basement somewhere, with a bevy Griffey Jr. rookies ready to be printed hehehe :p

another thing to keep in mind is that Topps is the only MLB licensed manufacturer for 2010 - so this will be his "only" rookie card.

No
 

This is not an "Rookie Card" yet as under the new rules you must play in the majors before getting a RC.

In addition; there will be several Strasburg RC's this year; depending on when he is called up.

I would say:

Topps Update and Highlights
Topps Heritage Hi #'s
Bowman Draft Picks

And other brands will all have Strasburg RC's. I think we'll be looking at about 10 cards which will be RC's plus some parallels which will say Rookie Card but in actuality not be RC's.

Rich

Talk about some free major advertising-

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big...urn=mlb,243549

ya, there were over 2,000 new watchers in last few hours alone. Its now up to 4381 watchers and the bidding is over $13K

Approaching $15 K...crazy.

Well, I will say this about manufactured rarity...
 

at least we KNOW the population. We spend alot of time speculating about vintage populations and spend money "thinking" our stuff is rare...

This whole thing is stupid period, anyone who pays that much for any new card. Now, the guy goes and gets hurt ( I really do NOT want this), lets say. Then what do you have? A piece of shiny stuff w no hope of it ever being worth it. Even if he he has a strong career, this card won't hold such ridiculous value.

Artificial scarcity.. Now, people used to "Speculate" in Mattingly Rookies. etc, but the prices were reasonable. This stuff? TOTALLY RIDICULOUS.

good point
 

I think this is a great point, "thinking cards are rare, when we don't know for sure." I don't feel this card will hold it's value long term but this is a good point. I see cards, it seems almost weekly, that used to be scarce and rare and now fairly large finds come out and .....not so rare anymore. I can think of quite a few that are that way being auctioned as I type this. The really rare (less than 5-10 known) stuff is getting harder to find...

Can you say buyers remorse....

.

At times I feel that those of us immersed in this hobby have more money than brains. This auction takes it to a new level.

Often in these high profile eBay auctions, you get a bunch of kids and idiots that bid away like its all a big joke. Many times when the auction is over the winner is somebody's 12 year old kid who thought it would be funny to bid, and ended up winning. It happens all the time with eBay. And the other bidders very often refuse second chance offers a few days or weeks later, when the excitement of the auction has worn off.

If I was the seller of this card I would be quite pessimistic that I was actually going to get paid, whatever the auction goes for. I suppose there are high end card auctions for modern cards, that pre-screen bidders, like REA, etc?

Good point. There's a very good chance the seller gets stiffed in this auction. Looking at the feedback number on the high bidder right now, I'd say it's probably an eventuality.

I used to collect modern golf cards (yes, I know). But anyway, Tiger and Phil Mickelson cards (autos and swatches) would flucuate wildly based on their performance week-to-week.

Remeber the Mike Vick rookie autos....

If you look at the bid retraction and cancellation history, http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.d...m=190398394834
you'll see that there has been a lot of screening of bidders going on.

When I got on my computer this morning, the first thing I saw was the Yahoo article that JohnnyHarmonica has posted in post #93.

I was quite upset after reading this article. Not once did the author mention PSA or the Honus Wagner T206. How can a journalist write an article in this day & age without mentioning one of those two things. :rolleyes:

I did like the adjectives he used though, like "crazy-nuts" and "insane" although he left out my favorite...."stupid sick". ;)

Thank you for allowing me to inject a little sarcasm at this time.


Jantz

apparently there are 4 other fake ebay auctions for this exact card, they all claim they own the 1/1

hopefully ebay removes the fake ones.

Even if I had interest in this card, I wouldn't bid in this auction. It should be in a legitimate auction, NOT eBay. The seller has already had 71 bids retracted or canceled.
71!!!
If you're the winning bidder, you have to assume that your price was bid up by countless fake or deadbeat bidders. What a joke....

Just an update on Strasburg:

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said that Stephen Strasburg is likely to need Tommy John surgery to repair a significant UCL tear in his pitching elbow. This will almost certainly wipe out the phenom's 2011 season, though the Nationals will seek a second opinion before going the Tommy John route. Strasburg's rookie season ends with a 5-3 record, 2.91 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 92/17 K/BB ratio over 68 innings.

That's really a shame, and is the very reason why it's crazy to spend thousands of dollars on these cards. But his health is far more important than his baseball cards.

Its over:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_yl...lug=tsn-166444

Stephen Strasburg likely will have Tommy John surgery

I hate to be the guy who spent all that money on that card now.

1/1s are killing set collectors
 

In this hobby we have completest. With all these 1/1s the completest which keep set collecting active will no go after this set because of all the 1/1s. I think its just lame how the card producers are trying to reproduce the rarity of cards caused by various elements such as pop-culture, printing presses, our parents flicking the cards at walls etc... The serial numbers are nice and all but I feel its just a fake sense of rarity. I mean that card has been on ebay multiple times now and if you look at it, it's the same card as his others just with some chrome. Does this 1/1 brand really bring us to 20k? I think not....
-John

I think *stupid* is probably the more accurate word to describe the $ paid for his cards a few months ago. Anybody who pays top tier HOF money for somebody who has played a half a season in the majors and just presumes that level of play will continue uninterrupted for 20 years, thus justifying the investment as a good one, is stupid.
JimB

+1,000,000

There was a story on Yahoo about the guy that bought this card off eBay and if I recall correctly he decided to buy it based on watching Strasburg pitch against the Pirates while out with his wife at a Buffalo Wild Wings. Too bad I don't have a 1/1 card because after a few beers I'd probably look pretty good pitching against the Pirates too. :D

+ 3.14159265...

Mark Prior 2.0

'Pretty crazy, but I would rather have that card than many of the high grade vintage PSA 9's and 10's which are trimmed. A 1965 Topps leader card sold PSA 10 for $120,000+ a few years back. That is MUCH crazier to me than the Strasburg.

Though still rediculous if you are referring to the Drysdale Koufax leader PSA 10 sold by Mastro to the leading Koufax collector on the PSA registry I think it was closer to 25k which is still absurd but a long way from 120,000.

You may be referring to a different sale if so please show me to which sale you are referring.

Stephen Strasburg Has 'Significant Tear' in Elbow Ligament, Will Need Surgery

Tough body blow for the hobby but we will persevere. Hopefully, he comes back better then ever! At least this kind of thing can't happen to a Cobb, Ruth, Mathewson, Lajoie, Williams, DiMaggio, Mantle, Horace Clarke, etc, etc, etc...

Lovely Day...

Iggy
 

Iggy-Man

Even a dolt like me might notice if Cy Young had Tommy John surgery...

We just have to worry about the card surgery being done...still painful to the wallet, but doesn't hurt your arm.

And don't you think I missed the Horace Clarke reference my pal...well played and very funny!

The Strasburg card in question was purchased by Brian Gray of Razor entertainment/Leaf sportscards to include in his repackaged product that is coming out I believe next week. Basically Brian bought the card for 20K to put it in his product that features one graded card per pack. I am sure he doesnt care if Strasburg has TJ surgery as he is not holding onto the card, just packing it out some someone else can have it in their collection. This card was supposed to be one of the high points of his product and I am sure it will still be regardless of the injury.

The other day I was at Target and noticed the Topps 2010 sets are advertising on the front of the box "Stephen Strasburg rookie card inside":D

I wish him the best in his career,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,lets see what happens next with the Las Vegas phenom Bryce Harpers' rookie card :D

Clayton

intentional rarity? absurd!
 

I cannot believe anyone would pay 16k for a manufactured rarity. Think beany babies and that will give you an idea of created rarity. Add to that the surgery and this is a crd waiting to plummet. Of course 84 bids shows there are a lot of folks waitnig for card companies to tell them what is rare. The fact that any card company can create a 1/1 means nothing. I see these presidential autographs packed in a card and suddenly it goes for more than the whole letter from the same historical figure. Absurd indeed.

The article I was referring to was about the guy who originally won it for $16k on the eBay auction mentioned at the beginning of the post. I'm guessing the guy you are talking about won it from Huggins and Scott?

Doug,

I believe that is correct.

I still have a hard time with the hardline manufactured rarity heat people bring up. This board is full of people who are completionists and have to have every card of any given set with all possible combinations. Cards like this are made for people like that. You have to have this card because it completes a master set. But you don't like this card because it has a number printed on it. If you collect rare backs or type cards, I don't understand why you would have a problem with manufactured rarity. Bowman didn't put a price tag on this card. Only a number. It's up to collectors to assign the value. So why get mad at the manufacturer when you're just as hungry for certain cards without numbers on them? You can have your every day Cobb with a Sweet Cap back or you can go crazy over a Brown Lenox. What's the difference? It seems obvious that Lenox, Uzit, Drum etc were all printed in lower numbers than the other backs. You have 52 Hi's and 52 lows both purposely printed in different quantities. But they aren't seen as manufactured rarity because they weren't meant to be valuable. I think thats just semantics.

That's a good point. It's all about what people want to spend their money on. We might think it's crazy to spend $20k on a modern card, but the people choosing to do so probably think we are crazy for spending that kind of money on cards of dead players. I guess as long as everyone is enjoying the hobby in their own way, to each his own. :)

I totally agree with you. I mean, for me it's hard to imagine why someone would waste hundreds of dollars on a Shag T206 just because people for whatever reason as a collective whole decided it was worth more money because of his haircut. But to each his own. I don't blame ALC.

I also love the "well he's just a prospect" mantra. There are many on this board who are more than willing to fork over thousands of dollars for a "no name" minor leaguer from the deadball era who died decades ago.

I personally don't buy rare backs or rare anything, but I can appreciate the difference between a card that is rare for what I would call natural reasons and a card that is rare only because a modern day manufacturer contrived to create a collectible by creating some meaningless variation like a numbered refractor.

Well how do you feel about the Goudey Lajoie, Ruth Butter Cream, or US Caramel Lindstrom? While not contrived variations, they were contrived rarities which was a conscious decision of the manufacturer.

It's too bad
 

I personally think this is a tragedy for this kid. He truly had the baseball world in his grip and now, at such as young age, is going to have to go through surgery. I know that the card sold for a ton of money, but he really did have me excited to watch him and follow him throughout the season.

Hopefully, he can make a full recovery and get back to what he does best!

Jeff

Both Tim Hudson and Josh Johnson have bounced back amazingly well since they had their surgeries. They might have even improved their abilities from pre-surgery performances. I'm hoping the guy makes a fast come back like Johnson did and dominates for years to come. It would really be something to see Strasburg and Pujols in their primes at the same time in the same league.

According to this ESPN article http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4403920 he got a $7.5 million signing bonus, $2.5 million 15 days after the approval of his contract and another $2.5 million on January 2010. It's an unfortunate situation, but from the looks of it he was already paid at least $12.5 million before the season even started.

A lot of people are feeling bad for the Nationals because of all the money they are shelling out but surely they had his arm insured?

he lasted 12 games........

Though possible, doubt early 1900's card manufacturers would have thought of creating the contrived scarcity of cards, the way it is done now. Mind set has developed in such a way.

Actually, as Packs pointed out, several card companies did exactly that, albeit for a different reason. Goudey, US Caramel, Butter Cream and others, with held, or dramatically reduced production of single cards to encourage set collectors to keep buying packs.

That is artificial rarity.

So let's say there's $15 million guaranteed already paid -- how many more millions in merchandise and ticket sales, etc. have been made because of him?

as stated before
 

My thought on the new cards and manufactured rarity is that it's just another form of collecting/gambling. Not really unlike a lot of what we do. There is nothing wrong with it. If it's what those guys enjoy, who the heck cares? It's their money.

As for pre-war rarities lets don't forget one of the reasons several card companies didn't produce many of a certain card. It was so they didn't have to give away too many prizes to folks completing sets and turning them in. regards

That's absolutely true. Topps has had one of their best years ever because of Strasburg. Now that he will be "yesterday's news", all attentions will be turned to Harper. It's the nature of the beast.

Leon,

The majority of the fine folks at Freedom Cardboard are wonderful, nice people who appreciate vintage cards. However, they have gravitated toward the modern. Can't we as vintage collectors extend the same courtesy to them and not pass judgement on what they collect? I certainly hope so. After all, it's only baseball cards.

I don't understand that last sentence.

I guess....
 

What is this supposed to mean? You sort of sound like my wife arguing the exact same point I am agreeing with? Maybe you didn't understand my post or I am not understanding yours? We are advocating the same thing.

To my mind not the same thing as artificially creating some stupid variation and arbitrarily making one of them. Not like Strasburg himself is a rare card, just some stupid variation colored red. But hey, whatever.

Leon, you nimrod, I'm not arguing anything. I posted that in agreement :)

I like that ....
 

My apologies....It's been a while since I have been called a nimrod. I kind of like that. It's so much better than the things I have been called by my wife. Glad we got that cleared up :D. Now back to whatever it was I was doing...

People who follow hype aren't all that wise and always seem to get burned.

They always want "what's in the news" and this goes for something like this (if he pitches 50 perfect games in a row, it won't hold it's value because there will a better 1/1 insert down the road) or the buying up autographs of a recently deceased individual (I watched a person win a Mother Theresa signed insert card for $12,000 following her death or those $3,000 Michael Jackson photos which are now selling for $300), it never pays off for them in the long run.

This isn't a tragedy, just delays what could be a brilliant pitcher in the making. ESPN made it seem like he had passed away, but I know have facts memorized noting indivuduals who had bounced back from this with more success.

And Kerry Wood.

DanC

Have to agree with Peter. However, probable that those same creators(of pre 1940 sets), put in the present, would do the same or similar. Exposed to present mindset, internet, historical perspective, etc, that would be likely outcome.

As a collector, I don't see any difference between a refractor and a back variation. If you have to bring up intention to differentiate the two, then you're just talking about semantics. One is rarer than the other because it was printed in a more limited quantity. You can gloss the front in crazy colors or you can change the advertisement on the back, either way, you're making a scarcer version of your base card. The Strasburg card is not just a manufactured rarity, it is a chase card. It's the premier card in the entire set. People are going to buy more packs to try to find it. The same was true for the Lajoie Goudey, Ruth Butter Cream, the Chance Cracker Jack and so on and so on. I think people should stop looking at numbered cards as manufactured rarities and should start seeing them as what they are: chase cards. Card manufacturers have literally been doing the same thing for over a hundred years. Just because a product is modern doesn't make the concept new. And because you enjoy pre-war cards doesn't mean you aren't sharing a common collecting interest as modern collectors.

For some reason until now I failed to realize that without the chase cards the rest of the set would be much rarer since they would have been redeemed.