Originally Posted by Exhibitman (Post 2402260)

100% agree. Absolute rarity is wonderful. When you have a truly rare item, you can set the price and hold out to get it.

I am contemptuous of condition rarity. It only matters when a card is abundant enough across the grades to be readily acquired for the asking if the money is there. And modern PSA 10s are a joke. When you have a ton of cards kept in pack-fresh condition and a mountain of unopened material, there will be a ton of pack-fresh cards to grade and inevitably a big stack of 10s. Consider the card that many think of as the granddaddy of modern cards, the 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card. Total PSA population of this card as of January 14, 2023, is 176,667, of which 4,091 are unqualified PSA 10 graded cards. The people trying to sell these cards will tell you that PSA 10 are only 2.3% of the total population of PSA Griffey cards. True, but meaningless, because there are still over 4,000 PSA perfect 10 Griffey cards. And, of course, the distinctions PSA makes over these cards is so trivial that you can put a bunch of PSA 9 Griffeys with a 10 Griffey in a pile with the labels covered and the vast majority of collectors will not be able to choose the PSA 10. I also am disgusted that massive value swings result from arbitrary and opaque decisions made by unknown persons at the TPG, and the TPGs have a dismal track record of approving altered cards. Lots of 10s with a shave and a haircut.

I loathe manufactured rarity. The problem with manufactured rarities is that demand for them hasn’t built organically and over the long term. The manufacturers keep churning them out, year after year, in every series and set, and they get hyped relentlessly to push the issue out the door, until the next wave of cards is issued and they become yesterday’s news. Also, when every card has a rainbow of parallel manufactured rarities, player collectors get frustrated and burned out, and they quit. The result is a mountain of very low print run cards that fall in value after issue and stay way down by comparison to the initial price run. Reminds me of bad IPOs.

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss (Post 2402237)

The BN Ruth, which sold for $7.2mm, was purchased two years prior for $5mm (it was all over the news), fractional shares were offered on Collectible at a $6mm valuation, and for a year the card was available on Collectible for outright purchase for $8mm - nobody bought it. I don’t know why/how people thought it would go for $10mm+, let alone $8mm+. That said, I agree Corey that $7.2mm is a ton of money, and further, an amazing price under those circumstances, representing a $2.2mm increase (almost 50%) in only two years. Phenomenal result.

Originally Posted by Exhibitman (Post 2402260)

100% agree. Absolute rarity is wonderful. When you have a truly rare item, you can set the price and hold out to get it.

I loathe manufactured rarity. The problem with manufactured rarities is that demand for them hasn’t built organically and over the long term. The manufacturers keep churning them out, year after year, in every series and set, and they get hyped relentlessly to push the issue out the door, until the next wave of cards is issued and they become yesterday’s news. Also, when every card has a rainbow of parallel manufactured rarities, player collectors get frustrated and burned out, and they quit. The result is a mountain of very low print run cards that fall in value after issue and stay way down by comparison to the initial price run. Reminds me of bad IPOs.

Originally Posted by raulus (Post 2401894)

Maybe this is too simple.

But it seems like it’s largely a function of whether the right cards come to market. If enough T206 Wagners and PSA 9 311 Mantles and Baltimore News Ruths come to market, then we could get to an unexpectedly high number of 7 digit sales.

Obviously the other part of the equation is that almost all of the modern cards that were hitting 7 digits over the last couple of years would fail to hit that level now. So all of those Tom Brady and Derek Jeter cards won’t be on the list this year.

Originally Posted by Fred (Post 2402169)

What still blows my mind is that people were paying north of $1M for new modern 1/1 cards. That I'll never understand. Does anyone think that trend will continue? What are people's thoughts about how much those 1/1 cards that were fetching 6 digits would now bring at auction today?

Originally Posted by Gary Dunaier (Post 2402665)

I still remember it was big news when the 2010 Stephen Strasburg Bowman Chrome Superfractor 1-of-1 sold for $16,000 before Strasburg had even made his Major League Debut... and the guy who bought it sold it for $21,000 a month later! (What's that card worth now?)

Originally Posted by jsfriedm (Post 2402108)

I would actually be surprised if a 1951 Bowman Mays PSA 9 didn't hit at least 2 mil, considering 8s sell for around 250K, and that I don't think a 9 has sold for 15 years or so.

Originally Posted by Topnotchsy (Post 2401949)

Does this one have a shot?

https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball-c...ription-071515

Originally Posted by joshuanip (Post 2405604)

Maybe not in this auction, but still a few days to go and extended bidding. I wouldn’t be surprised if a mid grade blank back hit 1m 5, or 10 years from now. (Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s at the same price either)

Originally Posted by Leon (Post 2401807)

I predict there will be 7 in 2024...

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Originally Posted by Snapolit1 (Post 2401844)

I came close to buying a million dollar Jasson Dominguez refractor. Then the drugs wore off.