I would argue it's more like an MLM scam. Get in early and you make out good. Get in late and you're just a sucker annoying your friends lol.

"could be' how bold..... its not getting in the big leagues its staying there when you are high end prospect which is the real hard part

right pyramid scheme.. of course the people at the top are happy..

which cards exactly

Bowman base first autos for those guys. Other guys like Wander and Julio I like to settle for Heritage Minors autos if they're on card or I'll buy an in person signed card instead of the insert auto. I like to buy select cards of select players when it comes to modern but I don't really like to extend much beyond $300. I do follow the market and products though.

And then for the monsters like Trout I like to buy in person signed minors rookies. I bought a signed Soto Heritage in place of the insert auto too. Sometimes I think in the long run in person signed cards of modern players might catch up in prices to certified autos. It's only getting harder to get someone like Trout at the stadium and I don't know how many players will hit the show circuit considering salaries now.

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The real problem with prospecting is that it indirectly hurts everyone in the hobby.

When a set is sort of cool looking and I figure maybe getting some of the base set to open for fun, but no- it's hundreds of dollars a box because the prospect X chrome plated die cut game cracked fingernail card just maybe might be in there.... So that set as a base set becomes expensive for no sane reason, and is now priced way over what a normal person can pay.

And when people at wally world at target start robbing people at gunpoint in the parking lot, for their blaster boxes (oh the irony!) after buying everything on the shelf hoping for the big score... and the chain no longer sells cards at the store.
So I can't randomly pick up a box of ANYTHING here or there. And nobody else can either.

I go to Walmart and Target when I'm upstate and I don't have any problem buying blasters of anything. Maybe three years ago I might have. But not now.

Do you have an example for what you mean when you say a set gets expensive because there's a prominent insert? Every card can be picked up individually and individual cards of inexpensive players don't get expensive because there's a card of someone else in the set.

It wasn't that long ago when many guys on Blowout were absolutely giddy about Acuna. Not so much now, perhaps.

he may be the buy low now ..but really packs makes a point...i really not that familiar with modern as well as many others on this site..... so i have to defer a bit more on this issue to him as he appears to be very knowledgeable on modern and obviously more knowledgeable than myself

Yeah I was never interested in Acuna. Call it a feeling.

The hobby is down on Wander right now since he got hurt last year. His cards are still doing well but distant to JRod. I still think Wander will be the king prospect. He’s not going to hit 30 homers but I think he’ll hit 300 more often than not and might be similar to Jeter counting stats wise.

At the height of the pandemic, our local store Target had nothing in stock. Except maybe the tiny mates or whatever they call the like 1/2 inch tall plastic figures that are just generic with different names printed on them.

I had a friend that worked there, and he said they literally had people hanging around the empty shelves at stocking time and nothing lasted more than 10 minutes.
Not at ours, but others had parking lot armed robberies of boxes of cards. Not a give me your car or money, but literally "cough up the Topps series one or else" When someone in the midwest got shot in the parking lot over cards Target shut down all in store sales.
They gradually restarted them, but at least at ours it's nothing like it was, and there's still very little remaining in stock.
My friend has moved on to Lowes, where they have the same problem with 10mm sockets (Just kidding, a long running mechanics internet meme/joke that isn't as innacurate as most):D

A card set having some special card or insert or series of inserts that makes it more money has been nearly every hot set since at least the early 90's.
93 Finest at $25 a pack because of limited run bought by a few dealers and refractors being in it.

Whatever set had Randy Moss rookie in it. at something like 5x msrp a week after release.
And so on.

Whatever set has this kids card and is a $600 product wouldn't be a $600 product without the special cards, especially his.
Maybe that's MSRP, but without the prospectors a $600 price point is a difficult one to support.

I am thinking about the Upper Deck products in the late 90s with the relic cards - 500 HR Club, or Piece of History. And Topps Chrome has always been more expensive. UD SP was more expensive in the 90s, than compared to Collectors Choice.