Molina is a lock.

An interesting candidate with a 2014 debut -- Cuban Jose Abreu with the White Sox. He is "old" in that he started his career in Cuba before he made to the US. Abreu has started out 2022 really slow but he's put up some big numbers so far in his career and he's got a great story as player. I can see him getting in the HOF some day depending on how long he can keep putting playing well. Obviously he's "too soon to tell" but worth watching.

There is no NBA Hall of Fame.

If you're going to put in 1-inning closers - something I don't really fully support - Wagner should be in.

Same difference, guy. What sets do you collect? You quote me a lot.

Common sense tells us all what he clearly meant.

The Basketball HOF factors in other basketball leagues besides the NBA. They haven't lowered their standards - they just include other stuff when deciding.

And A LOT of people don't know the NBA doesn't have a HOF.

Yes. I know this. I am well aware it is not just NBA players. You don’t need to explain this to me. Common sense still tells everyone what he obviously meant and that this is a pedantic correction.

How would the NBA lower their standards for a HOF they don't run or control?

We all know damn well he means the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. He is saying this Hall has lowered its standards in recent years. You know exactly what he is saying. I know exactly what he is saying. We all do.

Greg, I think Chris might be playing a joke here, by using my argument against me. In another thread, he suggested that everyone knows who Luca Doncic is, and I countered that almost no one knows who he is.

Almost no one knows what the Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame is, the three of us know, as well as 99% of the people reading this, but not the public at large.

Here were some NBA names from their 2021 induction class...

Rick Adelman
Chris Bosh
Ben Wallace
Chris Webber
Toni Kukoc

Peter, I apologize for derailing your baseball thread, I did not need to bring up the NBA.

It's all good. Basketball certainly seems very inclusive. I can see Webber, I can maybe see Kukoc who was a great player in Europe, but Chris Bosh, no.

After further consideration, I have decided there's some merit to your critique of me that I'm being overly pedantic (serious). I'll try to do that less in the future.

Bosh is an overlooked dude. He was an 11-time All-Star, was a top guy on 2 title winners, and won an Olympic gold medal. Nobody in NBA history has more than 8 (Larry Faust) and that guy played before dirt was invented.

I have kinda the same reaction to Bosh and then I look up his resume and I think "yeah, I see it now".

I think someone forgot to tell you that your Yankees did the exact same thing. But, hey, if you want to turn a blind eye and pretend it never happened, so be it.

Bringing this back up to reflect another year plus of data, with my own changes.

1995 Beltran (downgraded to maybe)
1997 Beltre (lock)
1999 Sabathia (likely)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely)
2002 Votto (likely)
2002 Mauer (likely)
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (likely)
2010 Stanton (too soon to tell) DOWNGRADED TO UNLIKELY
2011 Altuve (likely)
2011 Freeman (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (unlikely) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2012 Harper (likely)
2013 Arenado (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2013 Machado (too soon to tell)
2013 Cole (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2014 Betts (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2014 DeGrom (too soon to tell)[/QUOTE] DOWNGRADED TO UNLIKELY


And adding six more; I think it's too early to talk about anyone after 2015 at this point.
2010 Kenley Jansen (unlikely)
2011 Craig Kimbrel (unlikely)
2014 J Ramirez (too soon to tell)
2014 Bogaerts (unlikely)
2015 Lindor (too soon to tell)
2015 Correa (too soon to tell)

What do you think about Jose Ramirez? He has been fairly consistent and has four top 5 MVP finishes.

Other infielders to potentially consider if they can stay healthy and productive: Xander Bogaerts, Alex Bregman, Corey Seager, Trea Turner.

I will add Jose and Xander to the list, the others are post 2015, no?

Seager and Turner started in 2015 I believe, but maybe don't have as strong of a case. Although Seager's hitting this year has been very impressive

Their RCs are 2016 I just confirmed. We will revisit them in a year. :)

Great list Peter.

Let's not forget though, if Harold Baines can get in, frankly all of these guys should too and more!

If Harold Baines is In, I Retire From Caring About the Baseball Hall of Fame

What about Kenley Jansen? He’s only 50 or so saves away from Lee Smith and still 35 years old. He could conceivably get to 500 saves. He’s got 420 now.

This is a really good one. My initial thought was "lol no", but looking deeper it's possible. I wouldn't call him likely but he may hit some big milestones and his 158 ERA+ is in level with HOF relief work. Hurt by a lack of big seasons and WAR.

I will add him but rate him unlikely at this point.

On the subject of relievers, what about Kimbrel?

About the same boat as Jansen if you compare right now; though he doesn't seem to be aging as well and I would thus rank as less likely. Definitely should be on the list as an actual possibility.

OK.

Yeah I’d say they’re about even now but I get the impression Kimbrel’s days are numbered whereas Jensen seems to be steady in his production.

Kimbrel's WAR this year is higher than Jansen's. His WHIP is better.

Kimbrel has been bad 3 of the last 5 years, atrocious for 2 of them. Jansen wasn't very good in 2019 either, but he's been good 4 of the last 5. Jansen has been very consistent and seems to be aging well, while Kimbrel is all over the place.

ERA can be misleading a bit for relievers, but I see that Kimbrel's career ERA is a FULL RUN lower. That's a lot.

Kimbrel and Jansen are close to locks.

It's not a full run lower.

Kimbrel is at 2.41 Source: https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...imbrcr01.shtml

Jansen is at 2.51. Source: https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...anseke01.shtml

The difference is .1, not 1.0?

I am too old to read stats on devices. :) Thanks for the correction.

Kimbrel was removed from his closer role in LA last season. He's been pretty terrible since the all star break too, even though he managed to be named as a replacement for the all star team.

From what I have seen, WAR doesn't seem to be a great stat for relievers because of the minimal number of innings they generally pitch.

I’m not a fan of it either, but the voter base is these days.

I admit to being biased, but Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are both very strong candidates, and I expect they'll make it over the line. They need to produce in their 30's about half of what they did in their 20's, which is very reasonable IMO.

WAR for the top 10 save leaders. Other than Rivera and Eckersley, nothing that impressive compared to starters and position players. Relievers just don't pitch enough any more to do well in WAR.

Mariano Rivera's career WAR is 56.3
Trevor Hoffman 28.0
Lee Smith 28.9
Fracisco Rodriguez 24.2
John Franco 23.4
Billy Wagner 27.8
Kenley Jansen 20.8
Craig Kimbrel 23.1
Dennis Eckersley 62.1 (also a starter so a lot higher because of that)
Joe Nathan 26.7

+1

Machado is more likely than Harper especially if you are looking at WAR.

I think Posey might get 1st ballot, as a Catcher, nice guy image, 3WS championships, ROY, MVP, etc. And considering the last true Giant to get inducted by the BBWAA was Gaylord Perry in 1991 it's time to put another Giant in the Hall.

Just my thought, but I think WAR works well for hitters, less well for pitchers and hardly at all for relievers.

Love this thread and I need to look at my speculative list when I'm next on my computer, since I'm a HOF auto collector.

Two others trending really nicely, Shohei and Aaron Judge. I have a Judge auto but not Ohtani.

One other Sox player that I unfortunately think will come up short is Jon Lester.

And no way CC should get in ahead of Schilling. Both should be in!

1995 Beltran (should be a lock....)
1997 Beltre (lock)
1999 Sabathia (lock....not just likely)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (lock....maybe not Scherzer, Verlander, or Kershaw, but is one of the best of his era)
2002 Votto (lock)
2002 Mauer (likely)
2003 Cano (no)
2004 Molina (lock)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (lock)
2011 Altuve (likely.....if he continues to produce)
2011 Freeman (likely)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (disagree.....likely...Goldie may not be a first ballot, but he is going in....great first baseman....7 ASs, MVP, bunch of Silver Sluggers, Gold Gloves)
2012 Harper (likely.....if he continues to produce and does not have a career ending injury in the next couple of years)
2013 Arenado (look at his hardware.....not too soon to tell.....very likely)
2013 Machado (likely)
2013 Cole (too soon to tell)
2014 Betts (likely)
2014 DeGrom (unlikely.... unfortunately for him, he started too late and is too injury prone)

Schilling will eventually get in as well....his "issues"....do not have anything to do with his performance...... people will eventually get over it.....

You have folks like Landis, Anson, Cobb, Speaker, Hornsby, Slaughter, and others in who were just flat out racists, bigots, who objected integration, were on record making disparaging remarks about black players, etc.

Greinke will be interesting because if he gets into the HOF (most likely should) he'll be representing KC and his 41%-ish win percentage with them.

Greinke is not an "if"......he is a lock....maybe not first ballot.....but he is for sure getting in..... he is a hair shy of 3000 Ks

I think Altuve (over 2000 H, 3 batting titles, high WAR, etc.), Freeman (2000 H with what looks like many more to come, etc.) both get in. Arenado looks good too as he’s got ten 10 GGs and 5 Platinum gloves (unofficial perhaps I know but still impressive) and he’s continued to be a run producer after leaving Coors Field. And Betts will get in. Very high WAR, only 30 and still productive. And he can play middle infield as well! Remember, these guys can also cruise at DH and pile up the numbers towards the end of their careers if desired.

Dale Murphy has 2 MVPs.....along with basically 400 HRs, 2100 hits, almost 1300 RBIs, 7 AS, 5 GGs, 4 SSs.... I think Murphy should be in, personally speaking.

And this actually overstates how valuable these guys were. WAR includes a leverage adjustment - basically, relief pitchers get extra credit when they appear in tight games. This doesn't make any sense, a run scored in the first inning counts just as much as a run scored in the ninth, but relievers get extra credit for preventing runs in the ninth inning that starters don't get for preventing runs in the same game in the first inning.

Because they pitch so few innings, relief pitchers just aren't that valuable. Their WAR scores are lower than those of starters, and if WAR had been better formulated (i.e., if it hadn't included a leverage adjustment) they would be even lower.