I am optimistic we have spring training, but might be delayed. And by pop, yes, I mean higher prices. Do you folks also consider spring to be a robust time for the hobby?

Is this Matt or Tyler Durden from ZeroHedge? (Sorry, Finance joke). Agree with you that every bubble bursts. A big question we probably all struggle with is, "Do I sell now, reap the rewards, suffer for a couple years, and buy it back cheaper? Or do I continue to do what I enjoy and say the heck with it!?"

I think about this every day....

I'm just holding walking away for now waiting for a better time to buy.

I think in graded HOF Super Stars we are entering, not there yet but a long period of Stagflation in Prices. How long will it last Idk...it's my belief that
Prices will remain high because people paid too much and wont let them go for 20% lower and or cheaper. Auction Houses may dry up people won't come off their prices unless we have a recession which I don't see happening anytime soon. People have a lot of money because the economy is super strong they won't give in easy on lowering their prices or take a big loss. Just me I could be dead wrong.

"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."--Baron Rothschild

If you believe we are at peak then it is time to sell, bank the cash, and wait for the downturn to get back in.

Taking a break helps I think. I took a break from collecting sports cards for almost two years (this was when prices really took off) then started collecting again in late 2020. During my break I switched to work on my other collections... action figures... skateboard cards... non-sports cards... etc. Now I dabble a little bit here and there without laser focusing on one thing.

While it's heartening to see that I'm not the only one concerned about some of this run-up, this is nothing new. I've been a collector for close to 40 years now, and complaints about rising prices in the hobby have existed in some form or another for almost as long as I can remember.

A lot of good advice here. Cast a wider net, re-evaluate if you have strict condition requirements. When I got back into the hobby (this time...) as an adult sometime around 2014, I basically had to rule out most prewar because it had simply gotten too expensive for the amount of resources I wanted to devote to the hobby. I could have a nice but very small prewar collection - or I could have a more extensive collection of postwar stars that were also in nicer shape. Since I tend to gravitate towards postwar anyway, that was an easy decision for me.

Just here recently, I've had to backpedal on condition requirements. I remember getting nice, EX-MT-ish examples of cards like a '56 Topps Hank Aaron back 20 or so years ago for what F/P condition copies of that card go for now. So anymore, I try to go for cards that have flaws, but still present well. Recent examples would include a G range '55 Topps Mays, and an SGC 1 Diamond Stars Lefty Grove - a card I had always wanted. These are cards that I wouldn't be able to afford at all if I had insisted on my former condition stringencies. So to me that's an easy decision as well.

I will agree that the run-ups on individual cards have in many cases exceeded what I tend to think of as reasonable some time back as well. In the past few years, I've occasionally sold from my collection to put together scratch for a new card. And then a few days later it's like did I really just spend like a grand on a piece of cardboard? Though I could afford it in many cases, that kind of spending in general on hobby luxury is just not where I'm at in my life considering the big picture right now. It's also just stress I don't need. I can see where it would be easy to get frustrated with the process and just quit, but I love cards too much still to do that. I think there's a pretty big middle ground right now between being priced out, and still finding things to enjoy - so that is where I try to play. Maybe I pickup some raw, G-VG condition remaining 50's stars instead of PSA graded EX or better. Maybe I start looking at some Kellogg's and Hostess cards from the 70's that I've always been interested in, instead of having to have graded Topps base cards. Yes, it can be frustrating, but I'm not giving up yet.

Can't stand ZeroHedge! For what it's worth, I'm not calling for a global economic meltdown or any sort of doomsday scenario. While the GFC and the dotcom bubble were tough stretches, most came out fine. My strategy is to increase my cash position but keep most of my chips in. You simply can't time markets. Those looking for the bottom never find it because, like FOMO, greed sets in and you end up wanting more.

Some big companies missed earnings this week, lots of value evaporating from equity markets past couple days. Crypto been melting down since Oct. Have to believe that card prices will follow.

I agree about those fringe financial sites- read them for an hour or two and you need a stiff drink and two prozac!

Hey crypto just got endorsed by Google… still not in my wheelhouse- no interest.

Last time around card prices lagged the start of the troubles by about a year and lagged the rebound accordingly.

This thread really bugs me, in a good way, because it points out some real issues for dedicated collectors that don't have ready solutions. Either we stop collecting a wide variety of cards we are priced out of or the economy craps the bed. Not pleasant choices either way, frankly. I think I am just going to stay the course with my long-term plans for my collecting and just wait patiently for the right cards to come up at the right prices, and if not, fine.

Anyone consider reprints or tribute cards? I knew I wasn't going to pay what it costs to get 1952 Topps stars so I filled in the space in my binder for the Mays with a 1983 Topps reprint. In the 1970s TCMA reprinted a variety of prewar cards. Or collect the various collector issues. They are inexpensive and can be quite fun. I have or am working on 1959 and 1960 Nu-Card, 1960 and 1961 Fleer, 1961 Golden Press, 1974 Fleer Pioneers of Baseball, 1974 Laughlin Old Time Black Stars, the small 1970s TCMA sets, etc.

Reprints are awesome and I have many complete vintage reprint sets.

I feel like there are a few things this applies to besides cards. Real estate comes to mind; I have relatives out near Vail, and the joke out there is that the billionaires are driving out the millionaires. If they hadn't bought several years ago, there's no way they could live there now. My mom grew up on the East Coast and can remember when much of Cape Cod was still small farming and fishing villages; now it's a playground for people who use summer as a verb.

Real Estate where I grew up has become ridiculous as well. No more young families settling down really, unless they have a large amount of disposable income. It seems like the majority of people who grew up in New York have either moved upstate or left entirely. I already know if I end up staying near NY, that I'll end up in Jersey. If not, Florida is a realistic destination. Hopefully it won't sink into the sea by the time I'm in my 70s :D

Love this reference. Well done.

I’m July 2021 this card, see link below 51 Bowman Mantle PSA 8, sold in Memory Lane For $498,000. 6 months later it’s now up for sale again in Leland’s what will it sell for now?

True collectors don’t do this on big Cards, These people don’t care about the cards they care about making money on fools,its been a big Game.
Doing this on high grade eights in Mickey Mantle Rookie‘s 51 Bowman its driven every grade price to the higher level pushing it up in all grades. The money is being made by these guys on the lower grade cards based off the sale and many others like this. The 51 Bowman Mantles in 3’s and 4’s should never sell for $20k like they did last year, it’s been very interesting to watch


See pics and Link Below ….investors set the price is this market. How long will the investor stay in the this game ??


https://auction.lelands.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=107698

Shifted to these for the moment. OT in it being post-war.

No, the dealers set the prices, and many of them use every advantage, gimmick, or trick they can to make as much as possible. The idea of all boats rising with the tide to me is tied back to and has a lot to do with how price guides, like Beckett's or SCD, started proliferating everywhere in the marketplace, infusing the idea that card prices were all tied together and more or less based off what a NM version of that cards would sell for. What was it, VG was like 25%-30%, EX 50%-60%, something like that. But now these extremely high condition cards, many better than NM in a lot of cases, are being used as the new base to start figuring these condition price percentages. I never felt these very rare, high condition outliers should be used in setting the price of that same card in a lower grade, but they very often are. It isn't always the case, but I feel that kind of thinking is very pervasive in the hobby, and is exactly what the flippers and those potentially trying to manipulate the market are hoping for.

No the dealer is basing his price off what the investor is pumping/pushing it for in these auction. The dealer, he is basing his price off auctions realized sales which imo have been manipulated they’re playing musical chairs! We all see it.

whose to say the "dealer/investor" may not be one and the same?

George Soros is behind it.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

That's a great Paige photo, Brian. You're not alone in going towards photos, judging from some of the prices lately.

There will always be plenty of stuff for all of us to collect. When I started I was a kid with a paper route, then a teen working in a grocery store, then I took a huge pay cut and became a guy touring with bands nobody had heard of, which gradually turned into gigs that made it possible to have bills to pay, and get paid. That's all pretty blue collar.

Throughout that entire time I collected.

Throughout that entire time there were things I couldn't afford (like a $500 Wagner, hahaha).

Throughout that entire time it could be argued that "investors" were "ruining the hobby".

There was nothing I could do about it then, there is nothing I can do about it now.

Only being able to collect stuff you can afford might not be "fair" but to quote a recent president "it is what it is".

Doug

Agreed. If you're going to be a sheep (baaaa!!!) and chase after the cards that everybody wants, then yes, you are going to get hammered financially (unless you are rich!) The hobby is massive and there are many areas that still have lots of room to grow. Take UFC cards, for example. You can buy a lot of the key rookies for under a thousand bucks. Football cards are still a great buy (vintage and modern). And you could even start going after TYPE 1 photos of your favorite stars. You just have to start doing a lot of research and I promise you that in the end you'll be happy.

Every thread needs cards ... hot cards:

https://assets.lastdodo.com/image/ld...5056945a4e.jpg

https://assets.lastdodo.com/image/ld...5056942d16.jpg

https://assets.lastdodo.com/image/ld...50569446fe.jpg

Thank you!

His collar is very blue.

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/DQ0AA...84/s-l1600.jpg

I told my wife I would like to save and buy every three or four months. I still collect Barry Larkin, but the new reality is for pre-war I need more money than my monthly allotment can buy.

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Another one going to the Next Level Out of my Reach Now


https://www.ebay.com/itm/144369802131


Probably the Second Hardest Regular Issue Topps Willie Mays Card to find in high grade after the 53 Topps

And its overgraded to boot...may even be altered??

Could be…it’s PSA people don’t care. They pay up for PSA not SGC for postwar vintage.

it sounds like you don't care either?

It’s not about whether I care or not My point to posting the link of the 58 Mays PSA 8 listing was that here is another card that is gone from me, meaning way too high in price for the condition/grade I collect.

I have been playing around the edges. I found a couple of good buys and was able to add a 1952 Bowman near set and 1957 Topps near set and I was able to get at what I perceived to be "old prices" and then filled them in pretty promptly without too much expense.

One of the best sayings I ever heard was "We plan, God laughs." That said my plan is to work until I am 70 so long as I am productive, enjoying it and making positive contributions to my clients. I would the like to spend the next ten years selling my collection. I will probably keep the 1970s stuff because I could stay in the hobby doing Hostess and Milk duds and such. It is also the stuff I collected as a boy so it's not high grade.

There are plenty of 1958 Mays cards out there that are affordable to you and nice looking.

Right off the bat, if you are blue collar, you shouldn't care about collecting flips, which are pretty much the opposite of blue collar.

Can't afford a high number opinion from the opinion sellers? Well boohoo.

Doug

I suspect it may be Antifa or the Oath Keepers, depending on your political persuasion.

If you're "blue collar" and you've been collecting for a long time, then you probably have a large war chest of cards/material to trade. If you're "blue collar" and you haven't been collecting for a long time, then this "hobby" is becoming a bit more challenging to navigate.

A lot of guys on this board probably wouldn't pay the prices being asked today, but they have the ability to trade/sell off material they don't care much about for something they would like to have. This makes the hobby somewhat sustainable for a "blue collar" old time collector. One collectors trash is another collector's treasure. Sometimes it's just finding the right trading partner.

Johnny630 is net54’s resident Chicken Little

That said, the original point is valid, but it applies to all cards and all “collars”. Shit is getting more and more expensive no matter what you collect and most everyone regardless of net worth is struggling to buy, or at least justify buying, the things we used to buy a year+ ago.

In late 2019, I started to fear this would happen. So I went out and bought many cards I wanted, fearing that I may get priced out soon. I spent a lot in 2020, and I am thankful I did that bc I am not sure I could, or would want to, buy those cards today. This is not a blue collar problem, it’s a card value problem, and we all feel it. But I don’t think it’s a “problem”- that’s looking at it wrong.

But let’s be honest, we should all rejoice in the price increases, as we have all made a lot of money relative to what our collections were worth in 2018. So rather than bitch about what you can’t get, be grateful that you can now sell some cards and pay for a child’s education

Haha, yeah right, that will happen. If we can't complain about how poor we are while we are selling $5,000 cards what's left for any of us?

I'll be honest. I do not rejoice at the price increases at all. I have not made a lot of money off my collection in the past few years, nor did I build it with that in mind. I will not fund any major purchase with the sale of a few cards.

Sorry Ryan, I find it a bit rich (pun intended) for someone who has a T206 Wagner, Ruth rookie, T210 Jackson and the others you listed to be telling others here how they should feel about pricing and handling their collections. We live in different collecting worlds--maybe different solar systems.

I would rejoice if the bottom fell out of the market and I could afford 2-3 times as many cards that I want than are available to me now. If that means my own collection takes a 75% hit than so be it. For me and others it has never been about the money. Nobody likes to lose it, for sure, but there is much to be said for the sheer joy of owning something you like, as opposed to being worried about how much you can make or stand to lose.

So Johnny, hang in there. As others have mentioned, you can pretty much always find something you like to scratch that itch.

Johnny, I too have the same '58 Mays PSA 8 in my watchlist. Can't drop that much coin on it nowadays, but used to be in my maybe affordable see a nice one jump on it list. I still have my '58 Aaron in PSA 8 I bought many years ago. Would love to get the Mays counterpart, but sigh. But on the flip side, yes, very thankful the overall market has increased holdings value.

Todd I respect your point of view and will not address it. However, I want to be very clear that I am 100% a collector and have been one (on and off) for almost 40 years. I do not feel that viewing my collection as an investment, or investing in what I like to collect, are inapposite/incompatible.

Regardless of the payment platform, anyone not accurately reporting their sales in previous years has been committing tax fraud. I have zero sympathy for anyone whining about changes to tax form policy - the existence of these forms and/or the monetary limits do not preclude the fact that you should have been reporting your sales all along. Your gravy train just ran out of steam. Boo Hoo

You and I have exactly the same plan except that I am shutting down the career the minute I have enough money to do it. My second act is going to be cards and stand-up comedy, cards to generate some cash flow and stand-up because I love it.

Lmao love it !! Well Said

Ray, Johnny, count me in too. I run a legit card business and have to report not only my income but also file sales tax returns too. Zero sympathy for people whining about having to pay their share. Taxes are the price we pay for civilization.

Aren't you the guy who bought a 52 Mantle on forgivin PPP money? You're welcome btw.

I have no problem with taxes as I realize what they mean to our civilization. What irks me to no end is Government spending and wasting money like a drunken sailor. If our Government could manage the tax revenue they do collect better, maybe they wouldn't be squeezing the blood from my turnip every turn of the corner.

In defense of drunken sailors, at least when I wasted money on port visits, I was only wasting my own.

LOL!! Touche. My apologies to drunken sailors. :)

While I'm not a "blue collar" guy per the definition, I'm unionized, and thus on a pay scale with few opportunities for OT. The exchange is the time off.

All that being said, I do have to plan out my card purchases, well the big ones at least. Putting a little bit aside for any card over $1000 is what I have to do. Expenses are as minimal as they can be right now, but I'm also trying to save for a house, which in this market seems nigh impossible.

Too bad I can't live in my cards.

No. I am the guy who spent the PPP money on payroll and rent as mandated. I then saved up for two years before I felt I had enough of a cushion to buy it. And I would bet I pay far more in taxes than you do, including use tax on my buys, so spare me the ignorant self-righteousness.

Ray,

You are 100% correct. I say the same thing all the time when people start complaining about these changes to tax compliance and reporting rules.

It is just like all the people who complain about the alleged "tax loopholes" that supposedly only benefit the rich and well-to-do in our country. These complainers/protesters in reality are mostly those who are pissed because they themselves can't take advantage of such tax-saving laws, rules, and nuances in place. What many people don't seem to realize is that most of these tax laws that are often viewed as giving special treatment or favor to some are likely in place to push people and the economy to go and move in a particular direction, not to just give "rich" people a break. Our government is not supposed to be telling all the people and businesses exactly what and how to do things, yet when the economy goes bad, inflation hits, and so on, everyone still seems to look at our government and blame them, and expect them to somehow fix it overnight. Writing favorable tax laws/rules to sort of steer people and businesses in a particular direction is a direct example of our government directing and leading by offering a carrot, as opposed to using a stick to get everyone to do what they want. And for those that don't like that way of doing things, maybe just move someplace else like North Korea. I believe they fully embrace the "stick method" over there.

Nearly half the people in this this country end up paying no income taxes every year, and many actually get money/credits from the government. Yet no one calls those people out on the "tax loopholes" they are able to use and take advantage of.

Truth is, there really are no such things as "tax loopholes". The tax law simply is what it is. If you don't like it, contact your congressperson and work to change things. Or figure out how to change your situation and circumstances so you can also supposedly take advantage of these so-called loopholes yourself, and quit your bitchin'. :)