Elite Old Mills will sell for an explosive amount, heavily based on who needs what. Once the really aggro back hunters have a combo, demand can decrease. That's why Devlin and Ames sold at a much different level than even the other decent PG1 OMs.

Everything to be said has been said about pop reports, though Justin and I have a podcast (Episode 7) discussing pros/cons/and how to use.

And, of course, we need a picture of an explosive OM...

Looking at my master project, here are the cards I am going to need that I have on my list as having a combined PSA/SGC pop of 3 or less

Piedmont 350-460/42

Murray (1)
Schlei (2)
Wiltse w/Cap (2)

SweetCap 150/25

Steinfeldt (2)

SweetCap 350/25

There are 22 players here with 3 or less

SweetCap 350/30

Criger (1)

SweetCap 350-460/42OP

Bridwell w/Cap (2)
Chase Blue (3)

American Beauty 350

Shad Barry (1)

American Beauty 460

Bridwell w/Cap (3)
Doyle (1)
Wiltse w/Cap (3)

Cycle 460

Seymour (1)

Old Mill

Beaumont (3)
Devlin (2)
Doolin (3)
Leach (3)
Lumley (2)
Merkle (1)
Rucker (1)
Steinfeldt (3)

Sovereign 350

Bradley (1)
Clarke (1)

I think both of these might be errors, they show up on the SGC pop report but not on the PSA, and t206 resource doesn't list either on their Sov 350 checklist

Tolstoi

Downs (2)
Easterly (2)
Rossman (1)

Broad Leaf 350 and 460

There are 40 players with 3 or fewer on the combined pop reports for the BL 350, and then Cobb Red has 3 combined

Carolina Brights

There are 12 players with 3 or fewer on the combined pop reports

Drum

It is easier to list the players with 4 or more known copies. It's only Jack Barry. And for all I know, its less than 4 because of crack outs/crossovers

Red Hindu

Bridwell w/Cap (1)

Uzit

Crandall w/Cap (3)
McGraw w/Cap (1)
Murray (1)


So, for those who think the pop reports are overrated, if you have raw copies of those cards, I'd be happy to take them off you for a reasonable price :D

Here's another somewhat tough Ames:

It's really hard to gauge some of the tougher combos when it comes to prices but it's more than just the PSA pops that affect the prices SGC pops and past sales are a big factor too. Personally I think past sales affect the price as much or more most times.

The Ames Old Mill portrait has 6 in the PSA pop report but 0 in SGC's pop report. The previous most recent recorded sale was a PSA 8 in September 2018 and before that one you have to go back to November 2011 so you only have two recorded sales of that combo in 10 years.

The Atz Tolstoi is a tough combo but in my opinion not as tough as the Ames Old Mill. The Tolstoi's are one of the backs I keep track of and Atz has a total pop of 9 which ranks him tied for #98-#108 out of 253 in scarcity.

Here's the Atz I have I don't thin I could get anywhere near 1/2 the price of the Ames for it but I wouldn't sell it for that right now if I could.

Attachment 478896

I think it also really depends what someone is searching/hunting for that drives prices. All you need for a massive hammer price is 2 people fighting over something scarce.

In that same auction with the really high Ames/Devlin Old Mill prices, I grabbed a Krause Old Mill for my run, and I paid $67 for it. Ames/Devlin were much more in demand and more rare, and the pop on my Krause was higher than the median Old Mill back, but not that much higher.

I just picked up Charlie Rhodes Tolstoi in an SGC 2 holder. I paid $150 for it on open bid, no other interest in it. SGC pop of 5, PSA pop of 10, so 15 total. Time and place feels like as big a factor as anything else.

Since it apparently wasn't clear, my post is dripping with sarcasm and is in jest to make precisely the point that the PSA POP report ain't everything.

Yes I got the sarcasm but your total pop on the Atz was off by 44% so it kind of waters down some of the sarcasm.

Pat,

Thanks for all you do, your research is always amazing!

To have the Tolstoi sub-set sequenced in order of scarcity is WoW! I think I might spend the rest of my spare time this week doing this with the Cycle 350s, I love it, what an excellent tool for comparison. Currently, I only have the ones I need broken down like this.

It’s cool to see what “most” others are doing and thinking on this topic. And its cool to see people reach out and work to help the OP, who originally made an honest inquiry to further his knowledge.

Thanks Again

12 year old’s Vocab‘u’lary = Super Cool
Dripping Sarcasm = Not Super Cool

Waters down the dripping sarcasm, now that is funny. Good one, Pat

You are all Tempting Me

I am loving the T206 Series, the graphics, and the variety and amounts of players and adbacks.

But on the flip side it looks like a little overwhelming to under take a project like this

Jeff,
I definitely understand that. I felt the same way for many years before diving in head first. I started building my T206 set over ten years ago..

The set parameters and sub-set goals have morphed many, many times over the last decade.

I can tell you this though: I would not take it back for anything. The T206 set, while very complicated, has been BY FAR the most rewarding set that I have ever attempted completion of, and I’ve completed over 20 other vintage sets.

The Monster, anyway you want to chop it, is Awesome and fun. Actually, as my friend Scott always says

Fun Fun :D

Best of Luck!

Honestly, the beauty of T206 is that there are nearly infinite ways to collect them.

You can do a 520 set, you could do a team set only, and within that, you could decide to try and collect all the backs available for one team. I was going to go that route before deciding on just a portraits master set. You could pick a team like the Columbus Senators, there are only 5 cards from that team set, and then collect all backs for all 5 cards.

You could put together a set of just one back, like the Tolstoi back or Polar Bears or something similar.

If I were going to pick a different way to collect T206, I might have picked the Sovereign 150 sub-set. It has 150 confirmed cards, and includes most of the HoF portraits.

Just get yourself one T206 card.

What's the worst that could happen?

:D

Just get the one on your want list. It is my favorite portrait in the set.

The worst that can happen is what usually happens

I become addicted, go all in, and become obsessive trying to get everything I want, need, and do not need.

I have little to no control

You will be ok with just one. It took me two. I bought a Speaker and Matty off a dealer who helped me fill out my run of Topps sets. Then I had to have them all and sold off my Topps to collect t206.

Are you using PSA and SGC reports?

Did you go through each back and find which ones do not even have a pop? I owe one of them. How many more are out there?

You probably got some people overly excited that you outed the extremely low pops. :-)

Lee

I combined the PSA and SGC pop reports. For any back that is factory specific, its not possible to do a combined pop because SGC does not break it out by factory in their pop report.

There are a bunch of cards where there is no pop in either but a card could theoretically exist.