It's 1000% this.

People like me (back in the market after 35 years away) want those same cards that you all spent decades gathering, and can't wait on a good deal because there aren't any to be had. I use VCP to try and buy in the right range, but I'm not sure VCP can keep up with this market, so I overpay. The cycle continues.

I originally set my sights on grades 4-7 last summer, and am now in the Au/1/2 zone. I can't buy raw because I'm not familiar enough with the 100 ways I could get scammed.

I'm not looking for an investment vehicle, I'm trying to build a collection before the ship sails completely.

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I don't really understand this phenomenon. Why does a death impact cards that have been in circulation for 70 years? I of course understand the bump autographs get after a death; there won't be anymore of them. But why do cards get the same bump?

I used to feel this way, and I wrote bout it after Kobe died using almost the exact same wording as you about autographs: https://bigleaguebreaks.com/inside-t...-sports-cards/

After Aaron died, I got it, and wrote a little mea culpa: https://bigleaguebreaks.com/inside-t...en-heroes-die/

It is a bizarre thing and I truly didn't get it until last week. Something about seeing my Aarons made me want to hang onto them. I didn't even see the guy play. It's a strange mentality.

“Agree it’s very rare that I see the younger generation set building say a guy who is in mid 30’s Wall Street manager makes 500k plus a year. He says he wants a 52 Mantle Jackie and Mays in PSA 7’s I ask him what about the rest of the set how are you doing on it. He says I don’t care for them I just want the Stars. High end common set building I think is a thing of the past.”

Johnny, I agree with much of this. I have never been a set builder because I didn’t care about the commons. Still do not. I used to be an anomaly, but now I am much closer to mainstream

“Mistake I've made is selling a card without having it's replacement lined up. I figured I'd sell it, get paid, then go shopping. Well the sale went fine, but it's been months now and I can't find the right replacement. In the meantime, prices seem to go up up up.”

So true. It is the only way to proceed in a market like this.

“Those of us who have been active for decades in the hobby are feeling like we are about to get priced out so we are pulling the trigger on big ones we have always wanted and even paying a little more than we wanted to. We do this because of the fear it will be out of our price range before long.”

Absolutely. I started doing that a few years ago with some cards; wish I’d done more. FOMO is real.

Ok, agree the top tier vintage HOFers from prominent sets is what more people are trying to obtain these days. Commons not so much, even from big time sets.

I wonder what future may hold for some of the more obscure sets with Cobb/Matty/W. Johnson/etc. ? Not the T206, Cracker Jack, Goudey - but stuff like S74 silks, 1910 Sweet Cap pins, Domino Discs, to a lesser degree M116's, early Exhibits, odd 1920's issues - all have Cobb/Matty/Young/W. Johnson in them. These cards have been stagnant for a while now. Is it their time now to break thru and start skyrocketing?

Aaron vs. Mays - since way back their prices have been quite comparable. So now Aaron passes, his cards go up. I can see the logic behind the Mays cards closely following to keep pace.

No longer able to afford what I once collected, am now turning to modern shiny stuff of todays mega stars, Curry, Giannis, Trout, few others. It keeps me active in the hobby which is sure nice. And can't believe it but last couple weeks just plunked down some decent coin for a few old 1999 first year Pokemon Holo's. Oh, my - what am I doing ?!?!

That's a good piece on Aaron. I think your assessment it right. It's something I've thought about as well after seeing this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ-6Pe6iNyw

From my perspective the further away it is from a piece of cardboard the less it moves with the market. Strip cards lag behind standard cards, stamps behind them, and silks, blankets, pins, coins, and so on are far behind. They'll increase but I don't see them "breaking out." Just my two cents.

I have collected his stuff for 45 years. While I am tempted to cash in my RC, I can't. This is the third one I've owned and each time I had to get another one.

As to prices in general, it is crazy. They are up so much that I've had to redo my insurance this year. I don't know how far it will go, but I am glad I didn't cash out some of the cards 30% ago when I was tempted.

You might be right about the "High end" common set building. However, I don't think vintage set building will die overall.

As a collector of baseball cards (not an investor), building sets is how I stretch my card budget. I can only afford so many BIG cards each year (for me, a BIG card is $100+). So I pick sets that have a few BIG cards in them and then build around them. That gives me a reason to search for and acquire cards on a regular basis that won't break the bank. Then a few times a year I treat myself to a BIG card. It's a fun way to collect on a budget.

I feel like there are enough guys like me (and most vintage sets are rare enough) that there will ALWAYS be a market for commons. You may not profit very much from buying mid-grade commons, but I think they'll hold their value in the decades to come.

The problem I'm having (and is the subject of this thread) is that many of those BIG cards are getting out of my price range...so I'm having to get creative with the sets I'm chasing.

To the point of the OP

I know of at least one Hedge Fund started and they raised $10 mil in the first 30 days. They are having additional rounds coming up and expect to raise about 50 mil by summer.

For the past 4-5 years, I've been picking up all the shiny stuff from the 90s. Cards I could not find as a teenager ripping wax at the weekend shows at the local VFW.
lately, those cards, mostly Jordan, Kobe (RIP) any basketball insert, has skyrocketed. Im getting pushed out of that part of the hobby. I don't see the all time greats losing value. But the newer stuff of active players does not seem sustainable.

Other hobbies like photography, gardening, playing sports, etc,... are more about techniques and skill rather than money. There are some expenses to them of course, but not to the degree of sports cards. Our hobby we all love is based more on money than anything else. Anyone very wealthy can have a world class sports card collection in a very short time.

If you're a low end collector like myself, you have to find other aspects of this hobby that give you enjoyment.

I've given up on full sets like I used to do in the old days. More because I didn't want to go through all the packs of cards. I had boxes, upon boxes of sorted commons etc. When I started getting back into things 10-12 years ago I got really into all the chase cards and found that enjoyable. I mainly go after Cubs cards and enjoy that.

I read a write-up on the Orbit Gum pins and saw there were some pretty cool names in there and that with 60 pins in the unnumbered set, thought to myself that looks like I could do that and afford it. It was my first foray into the older stuff, other than a few stray low grade T206's I have. I started with a Kiki Cuyler and kinda went from there. I keep a spreadsheet with what I need, doubles and how much I have paid. I think I have managed to keep my costs down, but as I get to the last 3 it's dragging on. I've lost out on 2 Gabby Hartnett auctions over the last couple of months. Last second bidders, I can't bring myself to use a sniper auction tool.

I ran some numbers on Gwynn/Boggs/Sandberg 83 Topps PSA 10's over the last year. Wow. I really regret not buying some Sandberg 10's a couple of years back.

1) The Hedge Fund money coming in is very real. I think we may have barely touched the surface of whom is coming in

2) Vintage Commons will probably settle down for the most part. Most of the "New" money is looking to buy the biggest names in the best condition possible. That means the cards have been professionally graded.

3) We've been going through this for at least 40 years now. Donny Lepore in a 1979, YES 1979 Baseball Hobby News had a quote something like this: "No one who is an expert would have sold a baseball card over the past 10 years until now". 40 years later, same principle seems to be applying

4) FOMO: If you think this is a bubble to be burst, then SELL into the Up Market. I realize this hurts on a collecting basis but if you believe this you will be able to BUY when the market softens. Nothing like using profits to make your costs on your collection cheaper

5) I have a friend in the DFW area who has been a collector/dealer for a long time and he was talking to his wife about selling too cheaply. His wife had some very sage comments: "Look at the beautiful collection you were able to amass with those profits." Nothing wrong with doing both if cards is NOT Your primary income. Now if you are a full-time dealer you should not be a collector except for a very limited basis just to remember what collectors do.

I'm sure there are things I've missed but one other thing

5.2) Everyone has the right to set whatever prices they want and everyone has the right to buy/not buy at those levels. That is really the basis of this business.

There are so many areas of memorabilia that seem undervalued, and even plenty of cards out there that don't cost much. Just now, I got on eBay and picked up about 15 WaJo cards from the last decade or so I hadn't gotten around to, all for about $25 total with shipping. Some of them are beautiful, much nicer than anything put out while he was playing. I will have a ball getting them in the mail one by one, then putting them in my WaJo card album. Us relatively poor guys are consigned to collecting what we see out there that we like and can afford, which is what everyone does, after all. Even with my limited resources I've never had any trouble finding plenty of stuff to collect.

Great post

This is my outlook. The card I could've sold for double today (rather than half yesterday) doesn't change anything if the card I'm buying is also double today.

I have newly listed eBay searches I check out to see what’s for sale and I can’t rack my brain around the prices lol

It’s a catch 22, nice my collection is more valuable but it’s tuff to pull the trigger when cards are doubling every MONTH!

clct earning next week will be interesting

I look at this hobby and my collection a little differently. My focus is to build a collection of cards combining what I collected as a kid and what currently appeals to me as I go down the collector path fine tuning as I go. It has to be a collection that has meaning to me. It also has to be both challenging and enjoyable.
I like the appeal of a well curated collection with focus, If I occasionally overpay for a card it doesn't really matter to me because it fits my collection, as long as I'm not foolish about it and it's within my budget. So after I'm gone and my kid opens those suitcases with Al Crisafulli's kid to decide what its worth and if my Son wants to sell all or part of it that's up to him, I would imagine though, that he would say "that's a helluva collection you built there pops".
Ive been blessed to have the ability to earn enough to spend money on things like baseball cards and I'm grateful every day for that. Above all, it has to be fun though. Ive done many things in my life that weren't enjoyable so the minute this hobby is no longer fun I'm out, I could stop today and still have a very nice collection.

The things that I consider priceless here are the friendships and connections I've made, you can't buy those at any price.

I could not agree more. I’ve never understood why people congratulate others for their recent pickups. “Congratulations on that graded 7 1952 Topps Mantle.” What special skill did he demonstrate, other than having the funds to write a really large check? We are really congratulating his medical degree, law degree, or ability to operate a business, bank, or hedge fund. You hit the nail on the head - anyone with a checkbook can become a collecting God without any special skill, knowledge or technique.

Prices are moving up so fast, ebay buyers are having trouble with sellers cancelling orders because they can get more for the card the day after selling.

I made an offer of $900 on a card listed at $995 OBO. The seller raised the price to $1295 and countered at $1195. I declined on principal and the card sold an hour later. We’ve come a long way from sellers dealing with buyers canceling due to remorse.

The buyers who cancel with remorse are mostly newer buyers who reneg when the card does not go up in price because of either on-field reversals or market adjustments.

Rich

I disagree. There's a member here who could buy any card he wants, and sometimes he does, who is one of the most gracious and supportive people here. He's also is a very knowledgeable collector with regards to the history of baseball and the importance of certain issues. I can get excited and congratulate him on a 20K acquisition that I know is important to his collection the same way I get excited for my friend Andy when he scores an E90-1 caramel for $40. Or a member who had been looking for a Clemente panel for 30 years, think about it, 30 years, it ain't about the money, it never has been. I've seen JollyElm score one off random stuff on the cheap all the time, I'm excited for him because he's excited about his acquisition and yes we should congratulate each other for our victories against the outside world. This is a special placed filled with really knowledgeable people of great character.

The guy you're talking about spends 5 mil on a Mantle and wears a t-shirt that says Dope on it for his Photo Op to promote his brand. I guarantee he could never attain the depth of knowledge that long time members here have spent decades acquiring. It's not about the money man, it never has been.

That profile fits a lot of collectors: if it was just about money no one would bother writing, researching, or studying cards, there would be no National, etc. Money has been an issue lately because of the nutty market but collectors would be into it even if the cards were worthless. It's that excitement that is contagious, not the cost of the item.

I'm catching up on this thread from the bottom up. when I read this post.... especially this part : "that's a helluva collection you built there pops".

It reminded me of this:

just over three years ago, I was going thru a divorce and had reason to assign a value to my collection, so.... I cataloged and photographed/scanned everything and sent to several dealers asking them to make an offer to buy everything lock stock and barrel. I received offers from several, but one gave this compliment along with his offer: "You have the most solid low-grade collection I've ever seen."

He didn't have to write that. I remember smiling and welling up a bit when I read that, and I've thought of the compliment many many times since then. I'm even smiling and welling up a bit now!

Anyway, thanks for the post..... it resonates fully with me.

I feel ya..... I'm whittling down my collection around the edges so It'll be more manageable when my daughters open the suitcase with Al Crisafulli's son.

I'm pretty confident I'll never sell any of my Aarons ... except maybe that 75 topps (uugghh):)

Apply lessons learned from the GameStop and AMC Theatres stock manipulation... funny stuff.:p

OMG your wife knew what you have and what it's worth??? :eek:

There is no way you could buy a PSA 6 Rocket Richard rookie for $500 five years ago! They were worth much more than that!

Haha. No, you need to read closer. He gave his inventory to some dealers who knew he wasn't selling and got back low ball offers.

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Well said. I always try to have cards in my collection that I just find enjoyment in so that if I woke up tomorrow and they were worthless, I'd still enjoy collecting them.

I am very much trying to achieve this state of zen, but as a your standard returning collector/junk wax kid, I find myself with some lingering trauma from the first crash. Having been through it once already, how do you turn off that voice in your head that worries about spending $ on cards, only to have the market one day declare them all worthless and terrible? I certainly enjoy the cards for themselves, but I'd like to get to a point where that's the only thing I'm really thinking about.

They were wrong about those cards being worthless. The cards had only fallen in value to those who sold.
To those who kept, and kept selectively for truly historical players and important issues, those same cards are worth ALOT of money.

The lesson is, as it has been for centuries, hold until the market shows you you've invested well and then CHOOSE to take your profit, while at the same time looking for things you believe have unfulfilled potential and be willing to hold them for as long as it takes for that potential to be realized.

Sportscards were a craze from the second they arrived 150 years ago.
They had immediate and overwhelming attraction, people didn't need to be sold on them.
While focus changed among the population and art, furniture, ceramic and others became popular because of design, sportscards are rooted in the most widespread human interest on the planet.
Sports.
And these cards connect us in a somewhat truly indescribable fashion.

IMPORTANT sportscards are just at the beginning of taking a place in human collecting history in terms of being valued more highly than any other collectable - IMO.

If you buy, even now, with the superior knowledge you've gained as a true hobbyist, selectively for the rookie cards and other important issues of sports greatest players, there are still fortunes to be made.

And Vegas Dave is a slimy neer do well who will look like a half eaten pork dumpling in 24-36 months.

Daniel makes some good points. The last 50 years of collecting experience have been cyclical booms and busts. What goes up comes down but it does not seem to go to zero and it usually comes back stronger after a time. If you can hold until you are ready to sell you are not likely to see it go to zero unless the rest of the world goes to zero, in which case we have other issues.

Unfortunately there is no rule that cards will always be valued. We collect them because they tie us to the past and because baseball has such a long and rich history there are a lot of great connections we can make. But the relative value of baseball cards is very much dependent on how many future collectors want to make that connection to baseball history, which to a large extent depends on how popular baseball continues to be.

I am rooting for baseball to keep its spot in our culture for generations to come but I don't see that as a sure thing, and if the game becomes less important to us then the cards will too.

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Totally agree with this.

Ok, I hate to be sacrilegious, but it's only CARDBOARD...

I know that EVERY big money card I've ever bought, I've paid RECORD Prices for, LOL:D Happy Collecting

With some of the cards I follow, I have noticed a leveling off of prices happening. We could be starting to hit a plateau ... or not - perhaps depends on the card. Are you noticing the same, or still seeing prices rise substantially as we move into February?

I don't give a shit about six-figure marquee slabbed modern superstar cards (has as much relevance to me as the market for Maybachs), but as far as us mere mortal collectors are concerned, whatever is going on is deep, broad and real. My last two sizable consignments of sub-$500 cards to AHs have not only sold 100% but have brought in more money than I expected to receive. What I thought was clearing out accumulated material is turning into a really profitable endeavor. Until that turns I don't think there is much to worry about.

I think this quote below from an article in CNN on the stock fiasco is germane:

"To me, it's probable that people are pushing retail investors in one way or another when they have undisclosed positions that are being advantaged by those actions," said Dennis Kelleher, CEO of financial reform group Better Markets. "That's going to be classic market manipulation, and I don't have any doubt that's going on."

This dynamic is very much in play in the unregulated sportscard market.

Of course there is true underlying demand with cards, and there are plenty of rarer/scarce cards that are not rising artificially— just like some healthy companies' stocks deservedly rise.

Yet the internet and social media have made it all too easy for self-styled card investment gurus to virally direct sheep/lemmings to items hyped as "undervalued," while not disclosing they own many examples of said item-- nor do the gurus disclose that they are selling their examples as the prices rise, due to their actions influencing their followers.

This can be seen coming from miles away. And it is best done with certain types of cards— ones that have demand, but are easy to buy up in bulk and not too expensive to grab at the start.

And once the prices rise, "Fear Of Missing Out" kicks in amongst collectors across the board who want to grab items they have had their eyes on before those items, too, rise-- which of course makes the items rise.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/inves...ion/index.html

Maybe this is just my own opinion but we've all been watching this happen slowly over a very long period of time. There is no doubt that the prices are where they're at because of all the shill bidding that enabled this situation to become a reality. It is almost impossible to gauge the actual market value of anything because so much of the price point is set by eBay sales that are either inflated by self-bidding or artificial in that the card didn't actually sell.

I don't feel it's an overnight phenomenon or really even related to the pandemic. This board has had thread after thread about what some sellers are doing and I feel as though this is the culmination of a shill-ridden hobby rather than the result of pandemic panic buying.

It can be stopped of course. But it would mean sacrificing "stuff". A seller has something you want, you know you're bidding against yourself if you bid on their material, and it's going to take the hobby's collective will power to instead let the stuff go. Dealers who are bad for the hobby will only exit the hobby when there's no more business for them.

This is spot on!

Guys, I implore you, forego the stuff.

Anyone know if you can buy a card in auction and pay for it by sending them other cards and just have them relist the card for you? I have a feeling this could be happening but I have no idea if that’s allowed?
I guess that would be like pawning something for your win idk

Sounds crazy but I guess I'd consider it if it were worked out ahead of time.

This is the biggest thing, and has certainly motivated my past few purchases. On top of that it's made me realize what I can put off buying and what I can't. For example I got wind of an Aaron signing last year a little late, missed an opportunity to get my 54 Topps signed by him. Not going to even bother pricing one at the moment with his prices skyrocketing due to his unfortunate passing.

I still think about some of the deals I've passed up. Especially the summer of 2019, before the Covid boom as I was just getting back into the hobby. Live and learn I guess but it still stings.

You think the answer to rising prices is shill bidding? Did the dude who paid $5.2 for the Mantle 9 get shilled? The dude who just bought a Bird/Magic 10 for $720k on Collectable was shill bid? That’s the simple explanation for rising prices?

Is there shill bidding in this hobby? Yes. Are there people paying crazy prices? Yes. Is that the explanation? I don’t believe so. There’s just a ton of new money in the hobby; that’s the simple explanation.

Why?