I don't think there is much I can add that Matt didn't already say.

People are always bringing up how "overpriced" his cards are but they have held some of the highest prices in our Hobby since the initial boom in the 1980s. Why is it so shocking that they have continued to sustain these prices and climb in times of economic growth when many collectors have more disposable cash on hand to indulge in their cardboard vices?

The OP is an example that is not winning any beauty pageants but comparative to the going rate for attractive low grade examples, $3800ish isn't crazy. If it goes to a collector that is happy to have it and couldn't afford better what does it matter?

I recently added an SGC 1.5 to my collection. I didn't want to spend north of $10k on the card and can tell from experience, shopping in the Auth, 1 and 1.5 ranks with any modicum of eye appeal does not leave many options.

1300-2000 examples is simply not enough to keep up with demand. Consider many collectors don't have $10k+ to drop on a card and that leaves a small percentage of the pop that is actually attainable.

That could certainly be said for many, many collections (not just Mantles) that will be coming available over the next 10-15 years as they become liquidated. And let's not foget, doesn't have to be a deat, there's millions of baby boomers that have already entered or will soon be entering the retirement golden years which means money will be greatly needed for living and traveling in their twilight years. There's gonna be PLENTY of opportunities to acquire many great cards over the next decade that's for sure.

To me...not worth spending thousands to have...esp in such crappy condition!

Lots of valid points have already been voiced...I am of the camp that the price/demand for mantle rookies will decrease over time as the boomers die off.

But...I think buying a 51 bowman mantle true rookie could be a better purchase these days.

With all of this said.......Matt when you're ready to sell that 4.5, I'm your man :D

no one ever predicts the market to go down in 5 years...its always '10 or 15 years...why? cause when the consensus is 5 years....then its too late....the great selloff begins......

I guess I'll throw my hat into the discussion.

I don't mean to disrespect the buyer at all, as I am sure they are happy with their purchase. But I just couldn't pull the trigger on that card. Someday I will own a '52 Topps Mantle. And it will be in the lower grade, probably no higher than a PSA 2 or so. But there are so many examples of the same card in a PSA 1-2 that have much better eye appeal. Yes, they would command more than the $3,825 it cost to acquire this card, but wouldn't it be worth it?

This PSA 1 was recently sold on eBay by PWCC for $6,600. Yes, it's a lot more than what was paid for the one being discussed. But look at the difference in appearance.

http://imageshack.com/a/img673/7466/1ym8ms.jpg

I would much rather have this one because, well, it looks like a '52 Topps Mantle. The other one was run through the wash, and I don't want a card merely to say I own it. I want a card I could enjoy, and this one, with the higher price tag, would make me happy.

I know the centering is off (sorry, Matt :D ), but we're talking about the king of modern cards, and everybody wants one. I'd take what I could get without going over $10,000.

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I agree that if the buyer would be happy then he made the right call for himself. This looks to be a speculator who thinks that $3800 is a cost that can be recouped and then some due to the demand that surrounds the card. Maybe so. For me this is not the $3800 Mantle card I want to be holding when the music stops.

I guess looking at it another way from my perspective. If in order to have a Ferrari, I have to buy a smashed up, rusted out one that doesn't run then I am not sure I have a Ferrari. Just a personal thing, to each their own.

I do not think that examples like this will continue to follow the escalation trail and be dragged up infinitum by the overall strength of demand of the card. There has to be some sort of limit to what most people would pay for a card that looks like this regardless of what card it started out as.

These cards are way out of my reach; but if they weren't, I'd still take the 51 Bowman every day of the week before the 52 Topps.

In terms of supply and demand, I think it's worth considering that many of the 1300-2000 known graded copies may never hit the market and will remain in private collections. So I can easily see this card appreciate in value over time given the number of actual available copies.

I do like the idea that a previous poster made about the supply possibly increasing as the older population starts to pass and the kids sell off their father's collection. But it's also possible the cards stay in the family and never hit the market.

Since you never know when the next time you'll see a PSA 1 Mantle hit the open market again, I can understand why collectors are willing to pay the prices they are paying.

I was just browsing and noticed on the right side- popular ebay items
and this laundry washed-out Mantle was advertised on Ebay.
Apparently the guy that bought it from Sterlings, sold it for the 5k we saw in the previous Ebay listing, well this time it is listed for 8K by someone else now.
:eek:
Note**** how the seller has a 52 Mick pictured, but the description says 51 bowman
If the prices are going thru the roof on these 52 Micks, it will take no time to reach Babe Ruth status, give it like 10 or even 20 yrs, we be seeing Honus Wagner figures. :D
Listing: http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-M...3D311221347229

when you get the card for free its much easier to sell it....

I'd give the Mantle market another couple of years to run, then I think we'll see the prices start to stabilize and even decrease. The average American income is $50,000, and I can't see this trend of shelling out 1/10th of that for a beat up Mantle continuing on much longer. If anything, it will hasten the bursting of the bubble, as old collectors and their kids decide they'd rather have the money than the cardboard.

I agree that the hot run the card is on cannot be sustained long term and prices will level off but I don't think it will decrease. I also don't think the potential buyer is someone making the $50k avg salary.

Yeah, I think the average salary stat-- while true as a stat on its own-- is not a factor in the Mantle discussion. For over 30 years now, the pool of people who have decided to spend a nice sum for any baseball card have likely not been in that average income pool. In other words, just because the average income person can't afford a Ferrari (or any expensive luxury item), doesn't mean Ferraris are gonna start selling for less. That said, if somebody is a true collector and wants to own their grail, who the heck wants to wait years-- five, ten, twenty-- to see IF the price stabilizes or drops a bit?

eh I don't thing the Ferrari ownership and old card ownership are the same thing..people wont dump 50% of their salary in a car as much as guys in this hobby ..im not going by empirical data..but I do see card buyers making 30k in purchases..then 5 months later having to sell their cards to pay bills...that doesn't seem to happen much on the Ferrari market as a reason so sell the car...

add another 10-20k on the mantle like it has over the years the buying pool is reducing.......

again just off the cuff thinking..but that's my thoughts..

We can all check in in several years and see how Mantles and the hobby as a whole are doing. Until then, passionate collectors who love their cards will enjoy them.

We're talking about ferraris that don't run, rusted out with broken windows being psa 1s. If I'm rich I'm buying a decent one, if I'm buying a terrible one it's to fix it up. You can't fix up a psa 1 mantle and keep it in the case so I argue your talking about sentimentality, and that almost always loses money.

my argument is against buying the mantles as less people that buy them now wont be able to afford the bigger price..and the people buying them are more in the 50k range than people think because they are prepared to dump their salary in them...but there is a breaking point as they are not 'Ferrari owner' type people...again not all the buyers..but there are enough of them to be out of the market if the price point goes up...

I not into buying old Ferraris..but we all like to buy houses that are fixer uppers....not only can they be fixed and sold good as new which you cant do with the mantles psa 1s unless you buy a fake holder etc.....but you don't have to pay the higher property taxes on a house you fix up versus buying a shiny brand new one for more money..

My only concern with the Mantle market is whether there will be a next generation of serious baseball card collectors. I grew up in the 80s, when card collecting was huge and this card was the pinnacle. I think thay was a huge draw to many of the people that are now buying. That said, are the 2000s kids going to follow in our footsteps? I am not so sure. But, I don't have any immediate plans to part with any of my Mantle rookies, so I'm likely less concerned than others.

Yes I would would be worried about kids in the 1990s..but the 1980s kids are fine and they would have many buying years left..

I think really just the best of the best players will have value down the line...a guy like George foster for example...20 years ago we would have looked at him as a former star..but now he is common....so the 'stars' become commons..but the Cobb/Ruth/Mantle of the world seem fine to hold..