that is funny stuff!

What's crazier? I would have to go with spending $10K on a card of a player who has yet to play a game in the big leagues.

Just my $.02.

Baseball cards are subjective, so I don't understand the hate towards modern card collecting/cards. People buy what they want, just as you do. I'm fairly certain hardly any modern collectors would give you grief over spending some insane price for a vintage common you need for a set. How much money have you spent on common non-Hall of Famer vintage cards. What's the difference.

:D:D Thanks Peter,I didn't realize it was the multiple orgasm refractor-that explains it,and it all makes sense now :D

Thanks again,Clayton

Actually I kinda agree with you on commons, as I am not a set builder.

Is there really such a thing as a prewar common ?

My guess is many of the posts that ridicule the collecting of modern cards are made by folks who collect graded, pre-war cards. And some of these folks probably don't appreciate posts in other threads by the faction of Net54 that thinks collectors who prefer graded cards aren't real collectors or are "slab collectors, not card collectors."

So, to recap, it's not OK to criticize collectors who prefer graded cards over raw ones, but it is perfectly fine to criticize collectors who choose to spend their money on modern cards instead of pre-war or vintage issues.

Seriously? Now there is some serious disposable discretionary income at work.

I would have to think that these folks are willing to lay out $10,000+ just to say they had the "only" one. I can't think that they seriously think of it as an investment. Hell he's a pitcher and besides the fact he hasn't thrown the first pitch in the majors yet he could be one serious arm injury away from amounting to nada.

I wonder if his mother still has her first ultrasound image of him, now there's a real rookie for ya!

I'm curious if the person who wins it intends on holding it for a short period of time to do a flip. Granted, it could be a gamble but for during the first game or two, I doubt it. Guy comes up, throws a great first game or two, and throw it back up for hopefully a profitable flip.

In any event, to each his own. There are just way too many facets to this hobby to say one is wrong/dumb and the other is right/smart. Whatever makes someone happy with the hobby is OK in my book.

Just as an FYI his 08 cards are minor league cards. This is his true rookie card and as mentioned before this is THE card everyone wants. Yes there are plenty of different versions on this card but even the base chrome card is going for around $25-30 which is nuts for something out of a brand new product without an autograph.

No one seems to complain about Pujols rookie autograph rookie cards which sell for $5000+ all that time. LeBron has some crazy expensive cards like $15K+++ it's just the nature of the beast.

James G

Since I know absolutely nothing about modern cards, may I ask how did the seller find this apparently unique card? Did he open a pack and hit the jackpot? How are these distributed?

To average folks (meaning those who don't collect sports cards) we are all insane because we are willing to pay hundreds, if not thousands of dollar for a piece of cardboard, whether it's 1/1 modern card, or rare vintage cards.

So James does that mean an 85 Topps McGwire is a minor league card? Wasn't that a Team USA card too? Not sure I understand the difference, particularly where the major companies for years have been making cards of all these guys long before they are in the majors.

Fair enough, but it seems to me there is a difference between buying a card of a HOFer and just speculating on a kid who has never thrown a pitch in the majors -- particularly where the "scarcity" of the card is completely artificial as a result of a deliberate manufacturing decision.

Barry,
I hang around another site that caters to the "prospector" and the guy selling this particular card posted his "hit" on that site. If I remember correctly, he purchased a case of the product and got this one in there. I do not know the insertion rate of these superfractor 1/1 cards but I would guess one per case.

I stopped picking up modern (Though I do want a Mauer RC) but still like to hang around the other site and see what people are getting. It's all interesting to me.

Thanks Bill. So it's kind of like finding a lottery ticket.

One thing that strikes me odd is that there is a history of these unique or nearly unique multi-thousand dollar cards going back to the 1990's. And if I am correct nearly all of them turn out to be worth a fraction of the purchase price, or in some cases become virtually worthless. Given that fact, why do people keep spending such insane amounts for them? Do any of these $10,000+ cards actually increase in value over the years? It's easy to say people can collect whatever they want and pay whatever they think something is worth, but nobody likes to see their $10,000 card one day be worth fifty bucks.

Pretty much like the lottery.

The only thing I can think of as to why this is going so high is the potential buyer wants to get it before he makes it to the pros and hope that Strasburg has a big couple of initial games. After that, maybe he can flip it for more. That is just a guess to me though, I never got into the prospecting end of things.

I've never seen any modern cards sell like this initially and then keep going up. I guess the Pujols Bowman Chrome autographed rookie card goes against that grain but other than that, I can't think of anything and I don't even remember if that card sold highly at the outset. I do know that card was a redemption.

To go back and answer why people continue to drop money on cards knowing that past history shows them dropping? I can only think that they believe the card they are after THIS time will be different.

I guess everybody likes to think they are a little smarter than the next guy.

Or, some guys just like to blow money because they can. Every day people pay a lot of money for brand new vehicles that they know will depreciate as soon as they leave the car lot. There are people who spend what I would call outrageous prices for a bottle of wine that they intend to drink....Maybe the buyer of this card doesn't care if it depreciates? I also doubt the buyer will look to flip right away...if he's smart he knows that taking himself out of the equation probably already makes it a sure loser.

I am just thankful that a guy with such disposable income is not in the pre-war market competing with me for cards I want. IMO, there is a 50/50 shot that this card isn't worth more then $100 in 10 years.

I've found plenty of guys with what seems like unlimited funds collecting pre-war cards. :(

Me too - I'm just glad this fellow doesn't make it 1 more :)

Could be one of those rare birds that collects shiny and vintage.

Two things
 

I think Leon was going for a line similar to the vintage collectors are like a pimiple on an elephant's butt (and when I googled that line, there is actually a legit term for that expression) in terms of the overall part of the card market. If he had another line in mind; let's hear it -- :)

And the psychology of buying cards like this is actually pretty simple. Everyone wants to be proven right, and when the new card market was actually like a mini stock market in the late 80's-early 90's everyone remembered when they hit on players like Cecil Fielder who went from 3 cent obscurity to $3 overnight in 1990 and forgot the Gregg Jeffries mess when his 1988 Donruss went from a market high of $10 early in 1988 to the quarter it books for today (and the real worth is less than that)

You always remember the hits; not the stiffs and the memory of the hits is what keeps you going in this "prospector" game.

We always talk here (at least some of us) about being just caretakers of these cards; well, the new card people in many cases move those cards even quicker. And that is still true today. About 2004; anything unopened 2001 was HOT because of two players: Prior and Pujols. Prior, well he never was the same after 2003. Pijols, assuming nothing ever comes out about HGH or anything else, is now eligible for the HOF and will make the HOF and on the 1st ballot when his time comes.

So, even in 2004; with players with SOME experience, you still had the 50/50 shot.

At a local store in 1984; just as the season began, I remember a person saying he was going for the Mets and wasn't really interested in Mattingly. By the end of the year; he realized he blew that opportunity. It happens, you hit on some and lose on some. But to got back, you ALWAYS remember the winners


Rich

Rich - the thing is, that even if Jeffries made the HOF, that card wouldn't be worth $10 nowadays. Same here - I can't fathom this card could possibly be worth $20k 20 years from now, even if the guy is the second coming of Tom Seaver. So, even when you guess correctly and "win" you still lose.

Matt
 

In reality the point is to "win" about the player's performance and remember that you won about how the player did on the field. As it turned out, with very rare exceptions; cards from the over produced era (87-94) are not worth nearly as much as they were back in those days. In fact; the standard buy price for a collection from that era is 10 for a penny. I looked at a collection of nearly 800K cards a few weeks ago and the seller originally wanted 30K and eventually realized within a couple of hours that $1500 was all he would ever get and although they did not get sold; he will spend more in storage over the years than just getting out of those cards.

It's about the turn over and yes the 88 Donruss Jeffries, which in early 88 sold for $10 in the NY area; is part of a set which you can purchase for less than that individual price.

I think it will take about 30 more years to clean up that over produced mess and we'll probably have landfills before these cards ever come close to those values again

The card is currently at $9200 with nearly a week left to go- yikes!!

And the high bidder is a 0 feedback guy. That makes you wonder....

It doesn't make me wonder. It just proves you can register for eBay while inebriated!

I put a link to this card when it was at a $20,000 bin. For a joke I asked what would you rather have this Strasburgh or a 1951 Bowman Mantle SGC 8 (they both are asking for the same price). I was just trying to show how stupid modern rookie card collecting can be for a card that has a player with no MLB experience. Even if he is the next Koufax this card will be worth less than half of what it goes for 10 years from now. Its like buying a brand new car, it will never hold it's value.

It is only stupid if you can't sell it to the next sucker. Sorta like a CDO...

Heh, a nice example of how modern card packs are just lottery tickets for all ages.

The market for this stuff is far bigger than most think. While it doesn't make a lot of sense on the whole, some of the super high grade 1980s 'classic' rookie cards ('76 Walter Payton, '81 Montana, '79-80 Bird/Magic, etc) are where the interest lies for those who remember those players from childhood and the hotshots with a lot of money would rather spend it on something they have an emotional tie to.

The current card 1-1 shiny market is another branch of that. They've totally bought in to the concept and while they may lose big once in awhile, the wins are enough to keep them working it. Those 1-1s have completely changed the rookie card market.

Again, it doesn't make a lot of sense (I keep thinking "Mark Prior") but it's a very active, vibrant part of the hobby. I think the collectors/speculators of that market do appreciate the pre-War stuff very much, but for a variety of reasons (accessibility to product being one), this is what they spend most of their time chasing.

So a quick question... Was this card pulled from a pack, auctioned pre-circulation, or what?

I'd like to think some 8 year old just paid for a year at community college with this thing.

Back in the day I was trying to pull $20 Griffey Jr. Rookies. My how the times change.

Here is a link to the guy first posting he is putting it on eBay. I believe he pulled it from some collector box/pack thing.

http://www.freedomcardboard.com/foru...hp?f=2&t=90243

I dont collect or like the new stuff, but I like to follow these bigger events.

IMO like others said, the first time this card sells will be the most it ever sells for. Even if Strasburg becomes the best ML pitcher ever!


PS.Collectors Weekly says the Card has 1897 watchers now.

The card was pulled from what's called a jumbo case; so instead of the conventional packs that you would find, the packs that this particular card was pulled from had about twice the normal number of cards you would find in a standard pack.

I spoke to a cardshop owner over the weekend and I think there's more to this than what meets the eye; more specifically, supply vs demand. As I spoke to him, the jumbo boxes/cases apparently have skyrocketed in cost after release. They were released at about $100 per box, but now command nearly $200 per box. Also, the increase in price in the secondary market occurred as for whatever reason, large quantity of the Bowman cards were not purchased by dealers, thereby creating a limited amount of product released. (although without actual production numbers from Topps, this is questionable)

One other thing about Bowman which hasn't been mentioned yet is that Topps releases the Bowman product with the moniker, "Home of the rookie card" label. I don't buy very much modern day stuff, but when I do, it's usually Bowman. In addition to modern day players, there's several players that are up and coming.

As per the modern day marketing etiquette, Bowman has base cards, then cards with different borders (refractor, super refractor, x-fractor) and then couples the rarity with the insertion of autographs. Of course, this material is released based on odds - as mentioned in several posts before, much like a lottery (1 in 1000 chance for a refractor, 1 in 10,000 chance for an super refractor).

So there are several variables that make the Straussburg card so valuable to modern day collectors:

1. Considered first TRUE rookie card (although he had an earlier release).
2. It's a x-refractor labeled at 1/1.
3. Speculators like him

Lastly, back in the day as I was leaving the hobby, 1992 to be more specific, Topps had a hit on their hands with the Bowman product released then - Manny Ramirez, Mike Piazza rookies - all skyrocketing because it was a great product with supposed limited release. Many liken the 2010 Bowman product to the 1992 release.

Personally, I'm sticking with the pre-war stuff (I just bought my first Magee - corrected - card and I'm super excited about it - probably far more excited about that card than the Straussburg - and quite frankly, if I had obtained that card, I would have it shoved up on Ebay too - to buy more pre-war :D )

I would think the news of this Strasburg card already being pulled from a pack would cause lower demand for the product.

Someone already won the lottery.

I thought about the same thing too - but here's what everyone is chasing now, but no one is really talking about.

Follow me for second:

That Strasburg is a 1 of 1 x-refractor. So only one printed of THAT card. From my post before, there's an inclusion of another card that belongs to him that is ALSO 1 of 1.

His autographed 1 of 1 x-refractor. Wait till that one is pulled.

I wish they put in auto'd T206's in the tobacco packs....that would have been cool hehehehe

I cant speak to the Strasburg specifically, but I can say with absolute certainty (across the sportscard spectrum) that not all limited edition print cards are inserted randomly in packs. They have ways of eeking out into the public, into the hands of related parties, etc....and they never once see the shine of foil.

With Upper Deck, yes, I completely agree. I believe Mr. McWilliams has his own printing press and holographic stickers located in his basement somewhere, with a bevy Griffey Jr. rookies ready to be printed hehehe :p

another thing to keep in mind is that Topps is the only MLB licensed manufacturer for 2010 - so this will be his "only" rookie card.

No
 

This is not an "Rookie Card" yet as under the new rules you must play in the majors before getting a RC.

In addition; there will be several Strasburg RC's this year; depending on when he is called up.

I would say:

Topps Update and Highlights
Topps Heritage Hi #'s
Bowman Draft Picks

And other brands will all have Strasburg RC's. I think we'll be looking at about 10 cards which will be RC's plus some parallels which will say Rookie Card but in actuality not be RC's.

Rich

Talk about some free major advertising-

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big...urn=mlb,243549

ya, there were over 2,000 new watchers in last few hours alone. Its now up to 4381 watchers and the bidding is over $13K

Approaching $15 K...crazy.

Well, I will say this about manufactured rarity...
 

at least we KNOW the population. We spend alot of time speculating about vintage populations and spend money "thinking" our stuff is rare...

This whole thing is stupid period, anyone who pays that much for any new card. Now, the guy goes and gets hurt ( I really do NOT want this), lets say. Then what do you have? A piece of shiny stuff w no hope of it ever being worth it. Even if he he has a strong career, this card won't hold such ridiculous value.

Artificial scarcity.. Now, people used to "Speculate" in Mattingly Rookies. etc, but the prices were reasonable. This stuff? TOTALLY RIDICULOUS.

good point
 

I think this is a great point, "thinking cards are rare, when we don't know for sure." I don't feel this card will hold it's value long term but this is a good point. I see cards, it seems almost weekly, that used to be scarce and rare and now fairly large finds come out and .....not so rare anymore. I can think of quite a few that are that way being auctioned as I type this. The really rare (less than 5-10 known) stuff is getting harder to find...

Can you say buyers remorse....

.