This is the Blowout thread on PWCC cards supposedly not paid for I referenced the other day.

I probably posted it here a long time ago but worth another look in light of the recent ebay claim.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1307889

The problem with this theory is that one data point, especially when it's an outlier, doesn't really change the market prices. People will just discard it or ignore it. Everyone in this hobby knows that not all prior transactions are valid for one reason or another. You can't just fake "sell" a 10k card for 20k, then relist it and expect to get 20k for it, or even 11k. It takes numerous independent valid sales to move the market.

That was not a theory I posted. I was just asking a rhetorical question, to underscore how it is hard to blame any seller or AH for what may be fraudulent transactions carried out by a card's owner.

That said, especially with extremely rare cards that transact infrequently, an outlier sale can sometimes move the market. If enough buyers, and sometimes it can just be one or two, choose to interpret an outlier as a sign that a heretofore undervalued or under-appreciated card may be getting its time in the sun, the outlier make "take" and affect the next sale.

FOMO is potent stuff.

auction platforms allowing fraudulent bidding
 

IMO the auction house or consignment service is ultimately responsible as it is their platform, and they are allowing these fraudulent consignors to use their platform to bid on their own consigned items (shill bidding), and then not pay for the item if they win, ultimately to create a false selling point....then the item is re-listed...IMO PWCC has not been the only online seller who has permitted this in their auctions

Bruce Perry

Indeed it is, Peter. And sometimes one can act on it and get ahead of a trend. For example, when I sold my Gehrig RC to a member here, I sold it for a then-record of 17k. I had paid 3k and thought it was a good move, as I don't like oversized cards. Some may have seen that one sale and thought it was a sign of things to come for that card— and they would have been right to act on that outlier and grab one.

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...20yeah%202.png

Twice, in four months? Do you really believe that two separate sellers aware of the pricing trends each panicked? Do you know anyone who behaves like that? Or maybe it is because after the $11K+ 'sale' someone bought one for $7700+ from PWCC Vault, followed two weeks later by the second 'sale' of this one at $5100 and the 'sale' two months later of the same card at $4861.90. I see an effort to pump up the card in order to sell other ones.

But why speculate on why there is such a strange trend PSA reports when we can go to PWCC directly for their archive of sales of the Mayweather card? So I did:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...her%20PWCC.png

Guess what? Our friend #18931022 shows as sold by PWCC on February 24 and June 26. Whatever happened to the April sale through eBay that PSA lists? Maybe, and this is just a hypothetical, maybe it never actually sold in April?

This is precisely the sort of analysis that drove me nuts over at the Blowhard forums. Somehow, someone thinks they can "prove" that they've discovered a way to uncover this damning list of manipulated transactions because they found cards on PWCC's research tool but those cards were absent on eBay's. There's a huge problem with this assumption though. eBay's data integrity is absolute garbage to begin with. I deal with data integrity issues every day at work. It's an extremely important aspect of a data scientist's job. Every company has these issues. You can't just assume that what pops up in eBay's market price research tool is comprehensive of anything, and the same with PWCC's tool. You can't look at the intersection of those two datasets and start making conclusions like this about the missing links. There's often no rhyme or reason to which cards get listed as "sold", which ones get removed or flagged, when the ones that do get removed actually get removed, etc. Just go look through your own eBay purchases and try to see which ones you can find through their market research tool and PWCC's research tool. You will find missing sales. It is extremely common.

These sorts of threads are tattooed all over the place at Blowhard. Then the subsequent posts are just an avalanche of praise from people who just gobble this nonsense up. "Oh wow! Great work detective!"

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying shill bidding doesn't happen on the regular with PWCC consignors, or that some of these cards weren't paid for. I'm just saying that this list isn't what you think it is. The primary conclusions from that thread are not valid. Also, just because an item wasn't paid for doesn't mean it was because of shill bidding.

Here's a prime example from my own collection. And this is for a 52 Topps Mickey Mantle no less. I bought this card on eBay from PWCC on 07/22/2021 for $45k. But it doesn't show up in eBay's market pricing tool. Yet I assure you, it was paid for and is currently in my possession.

Same with some of my other recent purchases. I bought 3 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan SGC 9 rookie cards, all on eBay from PWCC. But only 2 of the 3 show up. Why is that? Again, all were paid for and all are in my possession.

You know best. I am sure it means nothing. I am sure what DeLorme (who was in the thick of it) told me about what was going on was contrived as well. Just data set errors, nothing to see here. And just a huge fortuity that it coincides with a period when Brent acknowledged a group of people were "pushing" the market and reported prices were surging to unheard of levels. And just a coincidence that the seller is PWCC and not someone else.

Next..... nothing to see here.

I would agree with you if you're talking about their Premier Auctions that they recently started hosting on their own platform, but historically, all of PWCC's sales have been hosted on eBay's platform. eBay is the only party that has access to all the relevant data to be able to determine who is shill bidding. PWCC has no access to this data. How can they possibly be held responsible? At least PWCC bans non-paying bidders from participating in future auctions. That's about as much as they can possibly do to prevent shill bidding.

There might very well be all sorts of shenanigans going on at PWCC. I'm not defending them. I'm merely pointing out that this list proves nothing. Then, I demonstrated why with an example from my own purchases.

The list strongly supports what some know from other sources what was going on. Your semantics are meaningless.

Anyone can look at almost anything and hypothesize another explanation. So what? In context, what's the most likely explanation for all these apparently unsold items? A database error?

Oh and BTW a number of the recurring IDs identified are the same people Brent acknowledged were trying to push the market. Must be an innocuous explanation for that too.

“Everybody knows that the dice are loaded.”

Of course you're defending them. Every piece of evidence against them, you are trying to rebut. Oh, wait, it's just an academic exercise.

I will do business with him till he goes away and again as soon as he gets out. He is a great guy and his auctions bring the most money.:D

You and I approach these sorts of things differently. You seem to be strongly influenced by people you trust. You know so-and-so is a good guy, and he wouldn't lie to you, and he told you x, y, and z are happening over at company ABC, so you know it's true. Then person B, who you also know and trust, knows that this and that are going down over at ABC too, so it builds on the narrative. You get enough of these stories going around, and then you come across a thread like this and it all just fits so well. You see this as evidence. Throw another snowball on the hill. Then another thread pops up about eBay buyer 'a***1' which has to be so-and-so because their masked eBay ID is also 'a***1', PLUS it fits with the narrative, so throw another snowball on the hill. Rinse and repeat enough times and eventually, you cause an avalanche on the hillside. This is textbook confirmation bias.

Meanwhile, someone like me comes along and says, "I don't care at all what your friend said about company ABC. That doesn't mean anything to me. I'm not saying your friend is a liar, I'm merely pointing out that he might just be misinformed or mistaken and that in order for me to believe something is true, I need to see actual evidence of the claim itself. And the holes I've been poking in all this data that keeps getting posted aren't just minor details or semantics. These are major, major issues that render the entire experiments and their conclusions invalid.

I guess in your world you would exclude human witnesses from trials. Not my world or the real one. If what people I trust say is credible and is corroborated by other people, other evidence, and my common sense, then yes I might believe it. You have zero context and all you're doing is playing divide and conquer with each successive piece of evidence.

Boy, no wonder you apologize and are on Brent Mastro's Schwanz with every post. 45 K, He hammered you like a red headed step child. You must have not had a clue he was crook, criminal, lying loser...or you still did business with a known criminal anyway. Good for you. Enjoy your A** pounding:D Just send that one back to him and he'll have it a PSA 6, just like he probably promised you.

Always nice to see a discussion degenerate into ad hominem attacks criticizing what a collector chooses to pay for a piece he wants.

I'm probably committing net54 Hara Kiri here, but here goes...

Leon, are you watching this thread? I have watched this entire diatribe play out. I have stated this before on multiple occasions when I have become frustrated, but I have to ask, is this a card collecting forum or a card and memorabilia investment brokerage?

Sure, I could just go away. I have done that on occasion. But being a relative newby to these pre-war cards, and not being a multi-millionaire many times over, I just would like to talk about the cards. Have I come to the wrong place?

Snowman gives an actual example of a card he won on ebay, that shows up in one data set but not another, and brings that point into the discussion. To me, that is constructive to an honest dialogue.

Why do you feel a need to rip him for doing so?

There is an ignore function that lets you block any poster you want so you don't have to read their posts. Way easier than complaining that will probably get you nowhere.:D

Now if one of the few people that don't have me blocked can quote this so everyone can read it.;):D:D:D

PWCC "capital notes"
 

Anybody know of anyone who's bought these? Thoughts? Asking for a friend. :D

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/capital

*****

CAPITAL NOTES
About the Note
Notes are issued throughout the year at varying interest rates.

Details
6-9% interest. Paid monthly.
12 month hold.

How to Request a Capital Note
Email qr@pwccmarketplace.com .
Include "Capital Note Request" in the subject line.
State a requested investment amount.
A lending specialist will respond.

My guess is the first sale was rigged, second guy thought he was getting a steal, went to flip it and the market said, ya that's a 5K card.

I suspect there were some BS BIN's leading up to the first sale.

In case anyone is wondering how this racket works, there is a pattern; a few BIN's get hit leading up to a PWCC auction. Those BIN's are to set a baseline. The PWCC card closes at a price higher then the BIN's and voila the hobby has a new baseline for that card. All you need is a multiple copies and a few friends and you can drive prices up substantially.

Hyping them up on a forum with a brother or friend(s) seems to help substantially with the above. or so I have heard:eek:

That capital lending program is smart. Really everything PWCC has built is pretty brilliant. Which is what's so crazy to me about all of this - he never had to collaborate with card doctors, or shill bid, to build the biggest business in the segment. His greed could take it all out. Crazy amount of risk to take when you have a superior business model.

I had that very conversation with him perhaps 5 years ago, told him he had a great brand and business model but that he was putting it at risk if he didn't clean up who he catered to, that there would eventually be scrutiny with potentially serious consequences. He said he would be fine...

Yup, doesn't make a lot of sense.

What if I told you that the data points you provide from your own purchases could have been shilled and you overpaid due to that bidding practice? It sounds like you are trying to prop up your own recent purchases now.

Here is the thing. You are assuming that the capital lending program is a smart business move unrelated to the (presumed) shady business practices.

My collection probably isn't worth half of what someone upthread paid for one card, so I've got no dog in this fight. Here is what I see from the outside looking in: We are in a period of not only rapid price increases, but also extreme price volatility. Companies like PWCC are mostly insulated from the volatility. Certainly, their fees will vary with the price realized, but they have no equity in the transaction. They are just taking a percentage off the top. Now enter their willingness to lend money to folks to bid with in advance of their particular consignments sell.

Maybe it is just me, but this makes PWCC look less like a clearinghouse for selling ephemera and a lot more like a casino. Lure them in with stories of the big score (which may or may not be supported by questionable practices), tell them you'll sell their cards for a piece of the action, then front them the money against the transaction which allows the company to grab another piece of the pie for themselves. The only thing missing is some goons to help collect.

https://thefilmfellas.files.wordpres.../untitled3.png

No! Say it ain't so!


Anyone remember the "sale" of the signed psa 5 Mantle psa reported....long before the run up for 275k? Literally was 10x the last sale and it had to be "noted" somewhere

Sportscards are an asset. People tend to talk about the details of their assets' value sometimes.

The world isn't going to cater to your preferences. Here or elsewhere. Not to mention that a large portion of the threads don't touch that topic here anyway.

If you don't like the concept, just ignore the ones that do

That outlier sale actually was a real transaction; the owner has the #1 signed Mantle Registry set. He is very wealthy and felt it was worth the money so he splurged for a piece he wanted. Man, I wish that sale never happened, let alone several of the sales afterward; that domino chain cost me a bundle collecting that stuff. The 4 card/9 auto that sold at Heritage a little ways back was also legit as a very respected member here and on SCT won it. A member here also won the Heritage signed 52b that went 69k. Sometimes an explosion is like the 1925 Gehrig; they’re cheap until they suddenly ain’t, and then they stay that way as the hobby accepts the new valuation/price point.

No, just the wrong thread. There's plenty of what you want on the board, just don't annoy yourself by opening threads you don't want to see.

To be fair, this is a thread about a major scandal in the hobby involving PWCC, ebay, and shill bidding. I'm not sure why you would expect to see something different in this thread. There is no shortage of other great threads discussing some awesome vintage cards and collections here as well, both for high value and low value cards.

Nobody took advantage of me. I wasn't shill bid on this card. I made an offer for less than what I felt the card was worth to me. The seller accepted my offer. I love the card and am more than happy with the price I paid. Feel free to berate me ale my purchasing decisions though if you dislike me. I don't mind.

Oh it was, but it kind of BEGS U to ask why he needed that sale recorded. Just glad I didnt sell him mine, as it was about 1/20 the cost of that (now a) 5.5. Course now it looks like a bargain.

Ive found most people that are "very wealthy" dont want people to know it, and hardly show it off.



Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

To paraphrase Dylan from Desolation Row

Somebody says, you're in the wrong thread, my friend
You'd better leave

I see what u did there, my friend! ;) Big fan of your example. Has great overall eye appeal. I know this is more for PM but did you ever get background on who had it signed? Looks like it has a great story behind it.

I did not, it was an (in person) ebay purchased from an ebay purchase in 2009 from power.buyer1

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no. I actually think the example posted looks like a lot of marquee cards over that same period. Shilling is clearly a problem, but the example posted just looked like normal activity to me.

Even if they were able to succeed in doing this for x number of cards (and I fully acknowledge that this does in fact occur), it's still artificial demand and economic theory tells us that the market will adjust. The market as a whole, or even sub segments of it, is just far too big for it to be manipulated by a handful or even hundreds of transactions. Do people get scammed? Yes, for sure. Daily. But the broader market stabilizes to meet supply and demand.

If you look at 2016, it seemed there was a price umbrella effect from the cards that were clearly manipulated resulting in increases across a wider spectrum of cards. Whether ultimately the market adjusts really doesn't lessen the pernicious effect of manipulation, especially in a market where information is so critical and where FOMO, maybe more than in other markets, is huge.

Peter, please help my fading memory from one of my favorite Dylan song:-

"Mama is in the factory making shoes
Daddy is in the alley looking for booze
And I'm in the kitchen with the tombstone blues."

Tombstone Blues. :)

From Highway 61 revisited.

Do you routinely sell cards you bought at 50% of what you paid? If this is normal activity to you, post your buys on here. I am sure there are members here who would save you fees at take them off your hands at half what you just paid.

If the first sale of the Mayweather was real, and the buyer consigned it back to PWCC, then assuming a 10 percent fee on the second sale, the buyer lost close to 60 percent. Nothing unusual to see though.

The market for even the highest traded cards is miniscule. The PSA 10 Jordan trades what 50 times a year and there are multiple guys with 10+ of them.

Wake me up when a popular card trades more then a thousand times per day. Of course hundreds of transactions can manipulate a card price when that card only trades a thousand times per year.

I’m not an investor or trader, so no. But the market is dominated by those types so who knows. I did not realize it was the same seller, so perhaps it is fake shilling. But I do know that every jordan card dropped 50% over the same period

Yup, super wrong in my eyes as a collector seeing someone called out like you've been for what you paid for a piece of cardboard.
It's a beautiful Mantle I hope you enjoy as long as you hold on to it, and the price you paid is for you to be comfortable with and only you.

I find your line of thinking interesting, though perhaps you're underplaying/undervaluing the effect of pump and dump.....
It's not just the 'outlier' high price paid for a shilled item that can falsely alter market value for a collectable, but the effect of todays sports forums online and on social media which pile on to the event.
When collectors discuss/post their feelings, both positive and negative, but often with a sense of excitement about that result, it fuels many buyers into that FOMO anxiety.
So without being completely sure themselves, a buyer who doesn't own a copy of a card they really desire may move out of their comfort zone purely because that FOMO suggests the opportunity may permanently disappear from their affordability or manageability.

Only takes 2 or 3 bidders each time, and the ones who are underbidders form the floor at the next auction and tend to bid to AT LEAST where they were on the losing auction, sometimes a little over.
Now further collector eyes see multiple auctions reaching a 'new' seemingly authentic bidder level and it resolves in their minds whether the original result was fairly achieved.

I understand your overall point, and that is that regardless of the above if collectors are willing to pay a new and inflated price, or fall away after a couple of auctions and the item finds once again it's previous selling point, the collectable is finding a longer term number that is considered it's value.

Fair in the way it gets there?
Probs not. But same thing happens in property and other assets, and if your pockets are deep enough it only really matters what YOU are willing to pay.
You see actors and famous people all the time selling uber expensive property they bought top of market for millions less than they paid, and I rarely feel sorry for them.
I own cards I've similarly paid up big time for, especially some modern stuff like Mahomes, and if it falls in to a pit I just accept I was the idiot willing to risk funds for a speculative piece of cardboard.

The anger pointed at your posts are unwarranted IMO, presuming you are not acting in bad faith at the behest of the bad actors.
No reason as I read it to believe that, so feel free to intellectualize as much as you like I say.:D