T206 cards poised for largest 2 yr. percentage price increase.

[iwantitiwinit]

Since we have commented a bit over the past 2 weeks on future t206 price increases how about listing 5 t206's you expect to have the largest percentage price increase using a 2 year time horizon.

Here are mine:

1. Plank
2. Johnson portrait
3. Lajoie portrait
4. Mathewson portrait
5. Tinker portrait

Bonus pick: Magee Portrait (as always)

[ruth_rookie]

I have a feeling most selections will be cards that folks already own, sort of a way of justifying previous (or upcoming) purchases. In the trading world we call it “talking your book”. So maybe we should include an “own” or “don’t own” designation? And I’m also gonna leave the big four off of my list, since they’re traded so infrequently that one aggressive buyer can skew the data with one outrageous purchase.

Regardless, here are mine in no particular order:

Cobb bat on (own)
Wajo portrait (don’t own)
Matty portrait (own)
Lajoie portrait (don’t own)
Cobb bat off (own)

[jasonc]

Nice thread, Robert.

Just my opinions:

1. Plank
2. Johnson (Portrait)
3. Young (Portrait)
4. Cobb (Bat Off)
5. Demmitt/O'Hara

[Gradedcardman]

Originally Posted by ruth_rookie

I have a feeling most selections will be cards that folks already own, sort of a way of justifying previous (or upcoming) purchases. In the trading world we call it “talking your book”. So maybe we should include an “own” or “don’t own” designation? And I’m also gonna leave the big four off of my list, since they’re traded so infrequently that one aggressive buyer can skew the data with one outrageous purchase.

Regardless, here are mine in no particular order:

Cobb bat on (own)
Wajo portrait (don’t own)
Matty portrait (own)
Lajoie portrait (don’t own)
Cobb bat off (own)

I would bet that is why most post anyway !!

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by ruth_rookie

I have a feeling most selections will be cards that folks already own, sort of a way of justifying previous (or upcoming) purchases. In the trading world we call it “talking your book”.

This just became my favorite new phrase, thanks for the knowledge.

I think this is half the discussion on prices and "future growth". Ever notice how a low sales point is always an anomaly, however a new crazy high oddball brings only the question "is this the new normal?"

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by ruth_rookie

I have a feeling most selections will be cards that folks already own, sort of a way of justifying previous (or upcoming) purchases. In the trading world we call it “talking your book”. So maybe we should include an “own” or “don’t own” designation? And I’m also gonna leave the big four off of my list, since they’re traded so infrequently that one aggressive buyer can skew the data with one outrageous purchase.

Regardless, here are mine in no particular order:

Cobb bat on (own)
Wajo portrait (don’t own)
Matty portrait (own)
Lajoie portrait (don’t own)
Cobb bat off (own)

I appreciate you making that distinction, and I like the phrase “talking your book.” I’ve always thought about it as “pumping a card.” Maybe I’m just skeptical, but it feels like there are many examples of dudes going to great lengths to bring exposure to a card “organically” when, coincidentally, one happens to be up for auction. I don’t think this thread is an example of that at all, but there are others on the main board, I believe.

Also, I agree with this list, but I might replace Nap with Cy portrait.

[rats60]

Wagner
Plank
Cobb Green
Johnson Portrait
Mathewson Portrait

[frankbmd]

Would anyone have said Titus ten years ago?

I'll go with Puttman.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Would anyone have said Titus ten years ago?

I'll go with Puttman.

Titus recipe for fake hype =

Slowly buy up at least 75 - 100 commons ( mostly graded, between 2-5 grades are fine).
Make a post fanning them out stating you have been investing as you see an upside.
Tell a few other colleagues you have secretly been working to corner the market but finding frustration as "I just can't seem to find many anymore, the supply seems low" (this doesn't need to be true).
Those collectors spread the rumor in boards and in hushed tones about "the accumulator".
Dealers raise prices hoping to bring you in like a sucker, people panic and start buying.
You wait till the hype drifts up during the next couple years.
Slowly sell individual cards at the peak and make a mint from the panic.
Laugh to yourself over how easy that was.

It's all a house of cards...literally.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Would anyone have said Titus ten years ago?

I'll go with Puttman.

I don't know about Puttman, but I'm in agreement with the general thinking here. The cards most likely to double or triple in price over the next two years are probably (almost certainly?) some common players. Now if you can only figure out which ones you're all set.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I appreciate you making that distinction, and I like the phrase “talking your book.” I’ve always thought about it as “pumping a card.” Maybe I’m just skeptical, but it feels like there are many examples of dudes going to great lengths to bring exposure to a card “organically” when, coincidentally, one happens to be up for auction. I don’t think this thread is an example of that at all, but there are others on the main board, I believe.

Also, I agree with this list, but I might replace Nap with Cy portrait.

Better than trashing a card you are secretly hoping to win. The old Hal Lewis playbook.

[SetBuilder]

I would be very cautious to expect further significant price increases. The global economy has serious cracks in its foundation and US debt levels have never been higher. We're also overdue for a recession. I fear it's going to be very ugly.

[orly57]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

I would be very cautious to expect further significant price increases. The global economy has serious cracks in its foundation and US debt levels have never been higher. We're also overdue for a recession. I fear it's going to be very ugly.

So 1914 Cracker Jacks then?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

I would be very cautious to expect further significant price increases. The global economy has serious cracks in its foundation and US debt levels have never been higher. We're also overdue for a recession. I fear it's going to be very ugly.

I have gotten emails or seen ads nearly every day for the past ten years saying the same thing from some market guru or other. Always the same message about the debt and the Fed and the dollar; always the same predictions of massive drops in stock prices, and so on and so forth. And always backed up by analysis purporting to show it's just around the corner, or already started. Got them at Dow 10,000, and 12,000, and 15,000, and 20,000, etc. etc. They always want to sell you some guide to making money in a crash. Carry on.

Here's one of my faves, Porter Stansberry, predicting 2018 will be the beginning of the end.
http://thecrux.com/a-huge-rally-and-...gger-collapse/

He doesn't tell you he's had the same message since 2009 lol. You would have done real well listening to his crap.

[iwantitiwinit]

Originally Posted by ruth_rookie

I have a feeling most selections will be cards that folks already own, sort of a way of justifying previous (or upcoming) purchases. In the trading world we call it “talking your book”. So maybe we should include an “own” or “don’t own” designation? And I’m also gonna leave the big four off of my list, since they’re traded so infrequently that one aggressive buyer can skew the data with one outrageous purchase.

Regardless, here are mine in no particular order:

Cobb bat on (own)
Wajo portrait (don’t own)
Matty portrait (own)
Lajoie portrait (don’t own)
Cobb bat off (own)

Full disclosure I own all but the Plank but I almost own the entire set so it would be natural I would own many of them. When I cite the Johnson it is a bit self-serving since I have a PSA 5 Sovereign and was pleasantly surprised at the price realized for the PSA 6 just sold by PWCC. I have thought for a long time that the card is underpriced as I felt he was the next card to appreciate significantly given the attractiveness of the card coupled with his achievements. I am also kicking myself for not buying more Johnson's when the opportunity presented itself as well as the Lajoie's which seem to be much more difficult to find as noted by another commenter in another post. I was acutually surprised to see how few Lajoie portraits have come for sale over the past 3 months on ebay.

Lastly, in relation to the Magee, I am speaking about the Magee not the Magie. I have always loved the image and feel that there have to be fewer Magee's around that other cards in the same series for 2 reasons: 1) The Magee replaced the Magie so that replacement would cause there to be a bit fewer Magee's than other cards printed in that entire piedmont series run and 2) counterfeiters have taken Magee's out of circulation in an attempt to alter them leaving a lesser population of existing Magee's.

I have been trying to purchase Magee's whenever possible.

[Throttlesteer]

WaJo port.
Young port.
Matty port.
Speaker
Dahlen Brooklyn (when inducted)

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

WaJo port.
Young port.
Matty port.
Speaker
Dahlen Brooklyn (when inducted)

Very good point. If Dahlen gets elected by the Early Baseball Committee in 2020 (as his WAR suggests he might), both Boston and Brooklyn versions will likely take off — especially in higher grade.

[Sean]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

Since we have commented a bit over the past 2 weeks on future t206 price increases how about listing 5 t206's you expect to have the largest percentage price increase using a 2 year time horizon.

Here are mine:

1. Plank
2. Johnson portrait
3. Lajoie portrait
4. Mathewson portrait
5. Tinker portrait

Bonus pick: Magee Portrait (as always)

Here are mine:

1. Plank
2. Cobb bat on shoulder
3. Johnson portrait
4. Young portrait
5. Evers blue sky

PS- I own one of each

And Robert, did you mean Magie?

[BruceinGa]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

Since we have commented a bit over the past 2 weeks on future t206 price increases how about listing 5 t206's you expect to have the largest percentage price increase using a 2 year time horizon.

Imo (probably not worth much here) everyone is missing the boat. I still say extra nice commons that are graded EX-MT (6) or higher will win overall. Not total dollar amount but more commons will increase near 100% than high dollar cards.
I am already seeing some that sold for around $160 now sell for $400. Please don't ask for specifics, just my opinion.

[Leon]

Seems Mr, Plank has taken off nicely, already in the last few years. Whether he continues that ascent, or not, will be interesting to see. The other picks are fair choices though most have also seen nice increases, overall. I might go with a Cy Young Portrait. I have always enjoyed that card and might own another in the future.

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

Since we have commented a bit over the past 2 weeks on future t206 price increases how about listing 5 t206's you expect to have the largest percentage price increase using a 2 year time horizon.

Here are mine:

1. Plank
2. Johnson portrait
3. Lajoie portrait
4. Mathewson portrait
5. Tinker portrait

Bonus pick: Magee Portrait (as always)

[DeanH3]

Originally Posted by Leon

Seems Mr, Plank has taken off nicely, already in the last few years. Whether he continues that ascent, or not, will be interesting to see. The other picks are fair choices though most have also seen nice increases, overall. I might go with a Cy Young Portrait. I have always enjoyed that card and might own another in the future.

I agree Leon. Young portrait is another one of those cards that if you find one centered with nice bold colors and nice focus it really pops.

[Rhotchkiss]

Dean, like this?

[DeanH3]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Dean, like this?

Those are exactly what I mean! Awesome card Ryan.

Michael, that Hindu Young is cwazzy!!!

Here's mine.

[Rhotchkiss]

Agreed, that Hindu is unreal. Michael, I think I have first right of refusal, no? 😀Dean, yours ain’t so bad either! Great trifecta of Youngs.

[MVSNYC]

Ryan, nice Young...

Leon, you mean this one?

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Leon

Seems Mr, Plank has taken off nicely, already in the last few years. Whether he continues that ascent, or not, will be interesting to see. The other picks are fair choices though most have also seen nice increases, overall. I might go with a Cy Young Portrait. I have always enjoyed that card and might own another in the future.

It has really just started moving this year. Before that they were going really cheap in my opinion. I think it will continue to move. It is one of the Big 3 along with the t206 Wagner and 33 Goudey Lajoie.

[MVSNYC]

Thanks Dean. Yours is dead centered!

Ryan, your Young is super sharp! Not sure if it's you or Derek with first dibs...or maybe Leon wants it back?

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by rats60

It has really just started moving this year. Before that they were going really cheap in my opinion. I think it will continue to move. It is one of the Big 3 along with the t206 Wagner and 33 Goudey Lajoie.

Mile high has one in its auction that just started. Let’s see where that ends up

[Sean]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Mile high has one in its auction that just started. Let’s see where that ends up

It's graded SGC 3, which is generous considering that crease.

[Rhotchkiss]

True, but the crease does not affect the picture, which is very clear and crisp and he centering is solid. It’s a hell of a lot nicer than the PSA 1 that sold in Goldin earlier this year for $50k and hardly as nice as the SGC 3 that sold I Heritage earlier this year for $75k. I think this comes in on the high-middle end of that range.