t206 back type frequency

[tonyo]

Does any raw data exist for the frequency of each back type in the know population of t206's?

In other words, if there are a billion t206's known, how many of those are piedmont 150's, how many are brown hindu, how many are cycle 350, etc?

Percentages are really what I'm hoping to see.

Tony

[steve B]

The supwerset spreadsheet has raw numbers on a bit over 17,000 cards. My copy is old and I'm not sure if there's a newer one. The person who made it os on the list so getting a copy should be no problem.


Steve B

[tonyo]

Originally Posted by steve B

The supwerset spreadsheet has raw numbers on a bit over 17,000 cards. My copy is old and I'm not sure if there's a newer one. The person who made it os on the list so getting a copy should be no problem.


Steve B

Thanks Steve,

Bill was kind enough to forward a copy of the spreadsheet to me last April. Love the format and I sincerely appreciated his willingness to share since there has to be months worth of hours by multiple people put into that effort, and I see the 17,000+ raw cards.

Actually I just went back to Scot Readers Inside t206 and see his back distribution data which reports percentages of each back seen in his 20,000 card survey. (This is pretty much what I was asking for in my OP)


I used Scot's data and Bill's data and "combined" the two to get a ball park of the ratio of each back type to all known t206's.


There were 2 or 3 places that my results didn't jive with JimR's list of difficult backs that has been referenced in a few threads recently.

For example, there are as many Brown Hindus on the superset spreadsheet as there are SC150-25's. Yet Brown Hindus are #12 on the list of difficulty and SC150-25s are #31.


Just makes me wonder if there is an update to the known back distribution data - or if I may be looking at the info all wrong.

Tony

[Abravefan11]

Originally Posted by tonyo

For example, there are as many Brown Hindus on the superset spreadsheet as there are SC150-25's. Yet Brown Hindus are #12 on the list of difficulty and SC150-25s are #31.

Tony

That's a good example of why you need to be careful with statistics. If very few of the people participating in the super set focus on SC150-25's then the numbers will be low for that back. However if the largest known brown Hindu collection was included it would seem as though it's more common than it is.

Even as helpful as statistics are you can not rely solely on them and should consider the real world experience of collectors like Jim R. and Brian W. when ranking the scarcity of backs.

[tonyo]

Originally Posted by Abravefan11

That's a good example of why you need to be careful with statistics. If very few of the people participating in the super set focus on SC150-25's then the numbers will be low for that back. However if the largest known brown Hindu collection was included it would seem as though it's more common than it is.

Even as helpful as statistics are you can not rely solely on them and should consider the real world experience of collectors like Jim R. and Brian W. when ranking the scarcity of backs.

Tim,
Fair enough and good point.......I think I am putting more stock in the real-world list than in the numbers I'm seeing...........I suppose that's why I'm asking the question......because I'm doubting some of the statistics that I see surfacing as I try to make some sense of the puzzle with my limited resources.

There must be some data that Jim and Brian and others have collected to back up in their own minds the way they perceive their real world experiences.

Just curious if those data are available for sharing......


I think I've seen in a thread that the top group and the bottom group on the list are pretty consistent with the middle bunch varying depending on many factors, Just wondering how big the gap is between each slot in the rankings, that's all....

I appreciate your time to respond!

Tony

[Abravefan11]

Even if we could say with 100% certainty that the back scarcity list posted was definitive the market place would not mirror it exactly most of the time and for this reason we always say that others collecting experience and perception could and probably will be different. The scarcity level of similar backs are so close that at any given time one could be perceived as more difficult than another.

There are gaps in the rankings as you mentioned and some larger than others. I wrote in another post we feel 12-17 on our list are all extremely close in scarcity and a case could be made for several different ways of ranking them. Some people feel with the large Drum find that Uzit is now more difficult but we don't see it that way.

Gathering statistical information including pop reports, market studies, board surveys etc. are great tools and I do it all the time, but all of those are flawed in one way or another and that has to be kept in mind when analyzing the data.

Some topics regarding T206's are always going to be subjective and the scarcity of one back versus another is one. It's an incredibly complex set and great fun to discuss.

[mrvster]

Tim,

Extemely well said......statistics get skewed, individual collections can influence the scarcity perceptions, and there exists so many more variables...
i beleive real world experience carries the most weight in relative terms....

Tony,

basicically i beleive the middle of the list will always be debated and updated due to future hopeful finds.....

i collect the freaks/printer scrap, but have real world collecting experience(mostly ebay for the last 12 years or so), and have followed "what is availabe" thru ebay searches....although i don't even own a uzit or drum, i have seen more drums for sale than uzits, but who know who has how many tucked away???....a collector who is advanced and not so vocal, could be "hoarding" or "amassing" the rarer backs like lenox, drum and we won't know until they die or they are sold at estate sales!!.....hopefully they won't get buried with them!!! artificial scarcity...



Tim, Jim, Brian , Art M. , Craig, John, Scot, and the rest are really the "braintrust" and do have the most collector experience when it comes to this set and scarcity....their knowledge, experience and passion, combined with the correlating data and statistics, should give us a better understanding of the rarirty....i have just started to focus collecting the rarer backs since my cards are tuf 2 find......

my humble knowledge and experience is always up for debate



Peace

JV

[scottglevy]

Way back when collecting was more about the time (not the money) that you had -- (think roughly 25 years ago for me), my dad and I used to buy lots of raw cards from people who were generally unconcerned about backs. I can say that I've gotten just about every single type of back in the roughly 2000 raw cards that I've been through without even trying. The two exceptions from the 'major varieties' list for us were Drum and Broadleaf 460. We had to actively seek those two out to buy 'em. I should add that I also never got a random brown Lenox or brown old mill. Oddly enough I did find 4 uzits.

Not really sure what the point of my post is ... other than to remember the good 'ol days of collecting.

Best,
Scott

[tonyo]

Originally Posted by mrvster

.their knowledge, experience and passion, combined with the correlating data and statistics,

The correlating data and statistics is what I'd like to take a gander at......

Just a snapshot of where we are today. Not asking for certainties or definates.

I understand there are variables involved, that one survey of 20,000 cards will probably yield slightly different results than the 20,000 before and the 20,000 after......depending on who what when where.

Just wondering if the "Back Distribution Data" listed in section VIII of Scot's Inside t206 has changed much ............. based on what is known today.

[tonyo]

Originally Posted by scottglevy

Not really sure what the point of my post is ... other than to remember the good 'ol days of collecting.

Best,
Scott

That would've been great .....25 years ago I was buying boxes of 86 Donruss. Ugh